NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 15

Imagine my surprise to find that I completely agree with the College Football Playoff committee.

Perhaps my agreement is not complete, but in the end the bracket is the same, and since the games are at neutral sites, that's almost all that matters. I have #1 Florida State vs #4 Oregon, whereas the CFP has Oregon at #2 and Florida State #3. The game is in Pasadena, which is closer to Oregon, but probably far enough to be any actual advantage. The other game, Ohio State "at" Alabama in New Orleans is just as the CFP set it up, just with different seeds. I'm not sure if rearranged seeding would have affected the locations of the games, though I could see an argument that the #1 team should get the location closest to home (Florida State in New Orleans in my rankings), and the rest fall into place from there.

So, why did TCU lose its Top 4 spot despite a convincing win? I would argue they never should have been up at #3 in the first place, and in fact I had them 11th last week. However, I do have them ranked higher than Baylor, which was a point of contention for the last few weeks among the pundits. I think the committee dodged most controversy by leaving out the Big 12, though they could have dodged it even better by not putting TCU so high last week.

If Missouri had beaten Alabama, and all other games stayed the same, I would have had them 5th, and the top 4 would have been the same, though Alabama would have fallen to #4. I honestly don't think the committee could have gotten away with choosing a conference non-champion without the champ, though, and both Alabama and Missouri would have been left out. As it is, Missouri fell to a respectable 10th in my ranks, and 16 by the committee. Although, I'm not sure if they care about much after #4.

Finally, congrats to SMU for avoiding the perfect 0-12 season. They even climbed out the cellar up to #126. The bottom team, which should stay there despite any bowl results, is now Idaho, though they're being somewhat punished for only playing 11 games. Them's the breaks, I say.

1	Florida State	13-0
2	Alabama	12-1
3	Ohio State	12-1
4	Oregon	12-1
5	Boise State	11-2
6	TCU	11-1
7	Marshall	12-1
8	Baylor	11-1
9	Georgia Tech	10-3
10	Missouri	10-3
11	Wisconsin	10-3
12	Mississippi State	10-2
13	Michigan State	10-2
14	Arizona	10-3
15	Ole Miss	9-3
16	Northern Illinois	11-2
17	UCLA	9-3
18	Georgia	9-3
19	Colorado State	10-2
20	Clemson	9-3
21	Kansas State	9-3
22	Nebraska	9-3
23	Arizona State	9-3
24	Auburn	8-4
25	Louisville	9-3
26	LSU	8-4
27	Utah State	9-4
28	Utah	8-4
29	Cincinnati	9-3
30	UCF	9-3
31	USC	8-4
32	Air Force	9-3
33	Minnesota	8-4
34	Duke	9-3
35	Memphis	9-3
36	Oklahoma	8-4
37	Louisiana Tech	8-5
38	Washington	8-5
39	Toledo	8-4
40	Georgia Southern	9-3
41	BYU	8-4
42	Texas A&M	7-5
43	Louisiana-Lafayette	8-4
44	Maryland	7-5
45	North Carolina State	7-5
46	Notre Dame	7-5
47	Stanford	7-5
48	East Carolina	8-4
49	West Virginia	7-5
50	Boston College	7-5
51	Rutgers	7-5
52	Iowa	7-5
53	Western Michigan	8-4
54	Tennessee	6-6
55	Western Kentucky	7-5
56	Arkansas	6-6
57	North Carolina	6-6
58	Nevada	7-5
59	Miami (FL)	6-6
60	Florida	6-5
61	Illinois	6-6
62	Rice	7-5
63	Virginia Tech	6-6
64	South Carolina	6-6
65	UTEP	7-5
66	Central Michigan	7-5
67	Arkansas State	7-5
68	Texas	6-6
69	Houston	7-5
70	Navy	6-5
71	Oklahoma State	6-6
72	Bowling Green	7-6
73	Pittsburgh	6-6
74	Penn State	6-6
75	Appalachian State	7-5
76	Texas State	7-5
77	Virginia	5-7
78	Middle Tennessee	6-6
79	San Diego State	6-5
80	Fresno State	6-7
81	Old Dominion	6-6
82	UAB	6-6
83	Northwestern	5-7
84	Kentucky	5-7
85	Michigan	5-7
86	California	5-7
87	Temple	6-6
88	South Alabama	6-6
89	Ohio	6-6
90	Oregon State	5-7
91	Ball State	5-7
92	Indiana	4-8
93	Texas Tech	4-8
94	Wyoming	4-8
95	Buffalo	5-6
96	South Florida	4-8
97	New Mexico	4-8
98	Florida International	4-8
99	Akron	5-7
100	Syracuse	3-9
101	Army	4-7
102	Purdue	3-9
103	Washington State	3-9
104	UTSA	4-8
105	Hawaii	4-9
106	Vanderbilt	3-9
107	Southern Miss	3-9
108	Louisiana-Monroe	4-8
109	Kansas	3-9
110	Tulane	3-9
111	Wake Forest	3-9
112	San Jose State	3-7
113	North Texas	4-8
114	Iowa State	2-10
115	Florida Atlantic	3-9
116	Colorado	2-10
117	Troy	3-9
118	Eastern Michigan	2-10
119	UNLV	2-11
120	Connecticut	2-10
121	Massachusetts	3-9
122	Miami (OH)	2-10
123	Kent State	2-9
124	Tulsa	2-10
125	New Mexico State	2-10
126	SMU	1-11
127	Georgia State	1-11
128	Idaho	1-10

2014 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0

Week 2 LSU
Week 3 Oklahoma
Week 4 North Carolina State
Week 5 Nebraska
Week 6 Auburn
Week 7 Mississippi State
Week 8 Florida State
Week 9 Mississippi State
Week 10 Mississippi State
Week 11 Mississippi State
Week 12 Florida State
Week 13 Florida State
Week 14 Florida State

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 14, Thursday

New England over Green Bay

When I was catching up on my podcasts this week, and listening to the Tuesday episode of Pardon The Interruption, I heard one of the guys mention that Miami was 7-5. I thought to myself that they were actually 6-6, and that would be corrected at the end of the show, as is often done. I didn't think any more of it that day, because I give podcasts only about half my attention while I'm working.

Then, Thursday night, the Bears played and lost. After I ran the numbers, I saw they were 6-7, but had read a story about them falling to 5-8, and being eliminated from the division. Suddenly the Miami mention came back to me, and I feared the worst - bad data.

Luckily, I guess, I found there was only one error, at least in terms of wins and losses. I mistakenly marked Miami's 27-14 win over Chicago backwards, causing all sorts of invalid numbers. The NFC was too strong, and the AFC was too weak. New England should not have been as highly likely to win their division or make the playoffs, even though they're still far and away the favorites.

To save myself from this happening again, my software now generates the current standings, which I can compare to the official standings and ensure a match before posting my numbers..

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-3	0.686	80.866	92.320	83.683	48.821	28.242	15.862
GB	9-3	0.682	70.207	94.653	81.907	49.169	28.504	15.619
BAL	7-5	0.660	17.843	32.500	18.644	9.641	5.084	2.709
IND	8-4	0.658	94.816	95.185	61.281	32.897	17.449	9.267
SEA	8-4	0.658	43.289	73.332	53.599	29.568	15.860	8.267
PHI	9-3	0.646	84.421	91.063	71.556	38.912	20.527	10.442
MIA	7-5	0.640	12.760	39.642	23.515	11.883	6.106	3.116
BUF	7-5	0.626	6.374	21.800	12.151	5.940	2.969	1.478
DEN	9-3	0.618	90.248	97.410	84.057	42.366	19.872	9.693
KC	7-5	0.616	2.365	44.824	23.080	10.901	5.229	2.535
HOU	6-6	0.583	5.184	14.458	6.852	3.047	1.377	0.623
DAL	9-4	0.579	15.579	62.724	35.742	15.991	7.191	3.155
ARI	9-3	0.578	53.913	89.835	66.664	30.529	13.464	5.899
SD	8-4	0.563	7.387	49.272	24.814	10.508	4.464	1.929
DET	8-4	0.561	29.793	71.900	43.543	18.716	8.120	3.417
PIT	7-5	0.540	15.164	28.953	14.312	5.619	2.236	0.915
CIN	8-3-1	0.529	59.074	71.183	42.176	16.371	6.217	2.480
CLE	7-5	0.516	7.919	12.454	5.433	2.006	0.755	0.292
SF	7-5	0.512	2.788	16.303	7.504	2.832	1.105	0.412
NO	5-7	0.509	55.607	55.607	22.645	8.420	3.164	1.174
ATL	5-7	0.485	42.603	42.603	16.363	5.759	2.039	0.712
STL	5-7	0.451	0.010	0.169	0.058	0.018	0.006	0.002
MIN	5-7	0.445	-	0.020	0.006	0.002	0.001	0.000
NYG	3-9	0.382	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-9	0.352	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-8	0.330	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
TB	2-10	0.317	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	3-8-1	0.310	1.790	1.790	0.413	0.085	0.017	0.004
TEN	2-10	0.275	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	2-10	0.256	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-10	0.240	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	1-11	0.218	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]

eBay Wins #146

Today I've got a half dozen 1991 Leafs (Leaves? No, I checked. Pluralizing proper nouns doesn't work that way), picked up for a penny each on eBay.

1991 Leaf
#306 Scott Fletcher
#410 Roger McDowell
#414 Norm Charlton
#416 Chris Nabholz
#424 Dave Rohde
#431 Jamie Quirk

I always like to look up information on the more obscure Cardinals among my somewhat random eBay wins, and Jamie Quirk played just 48 games for the Cardinals, in 1983. He had an 18-year career, but only played 984 games. Over his career, he played every position but Center Field and Pitcher at least once. It seems like you don't see a lot of that anymore, backup catchers playing fielding positions. Occasionally a big hitting starter like Yadier Molina or Buster Posey will get a "day off" - at least for their knees - at first base, or a promising hitter will be outright moved for a new promising catcher, like Joe Torre or Todd Zeile's move to Third Base.

I now have 121 unique cards from the 1991 Leaf set. I already had a copy of Chris Nabholz's card, but the other 5 were new. With only 528 cards in the set, I'm over 22.9% of the way to completion.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	3223
Total Spent	$50.73
Per Card	1.574 cents
Change	-0.001 cents

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 13, Final

New England over Green Bay

Miami's narrow win over New York didn't change much, but of course bumped up Miami's playoff odds. New England is still the AFC East favorite by a large margin, but Miami has an 11.5% shot at a wildcard now.

I also played around with some scenarios today, and barring any ties, the Rams can actually win the NFC West if there is a 4-way tie at 9-7. It's only 0.01% likely to happen as listed below, but I'll be rooting for it.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-3	0.686	89.127	95.444	87.784	51.588	29.924	16.796
GB	9-3	0.682	71.356	95.804	83.153	50.067	29.042	15.935
BAL	7-5	0.660	18.908	37.357	21.492	11.086	5.863	3.122
IND	8-4	0.658	94.940	95.487	62.702	33.670	17.894	9.491
SEA	8-4	0.658	43.270	76.027	55.970	30.884	16.563	8.642
PHI	9-3	0.646	87.431	92.446	73.183	39.840	21.012	10.703
BUF	7-5	0.626	9.086	26.208	14.619	7.130	3.572	1.777
DEN	9-3	0.618	90.249	97.477	83.669	42.487	19.930	9.717
KC	7-5	0.616	2.364	48.006	24.685	11.619	5.606	2.715
MIA	6-6	0.589	1.787	11.508	5.577	2.525	1.162	0.533
HOU	6-6	0.583	5.060	15.495	7.391	3.271	1.484	0.669
ARI	9-3	0.578	53.906	91.546	68.037	31.188	13.742	6.028
SD	8-4	0.563	7.387	54.495	27.231	11.507	4.901	2.116
DET	8-4	0.561	28.642	74.560	44.485	19.103	8.280	3.492
DAL	8-4	0.556	12.569	49.936	26.699	11.338	4.857	2.027
PIT	7-5	0.540	14.965	30.632	15.184	5.950	2.373	0.971
CIN	8-3-1	0.529	58.253	73.247	43.239	16.804	6.396	2.551
CLE	7-5	0.516	7.874	14.645	6.428	2.363	0.896	0.346
SF	7-5	0.512	2.813	18.216	8.400	3.162	1.233	0.461
NO	5-7	0.509	54.259	54.260	22.238	8.252	3.105	1.154
ATL	5-7	0.485	43.812	43.812	16.941	5.952	2.111	0.739
STL	5-7	0.451	0.010	0.255	0.089	0.027	0.009	0.003
MIN	5-7	0.445	-	0.041	0.013	0.004	0.001	0.000
CHI	6-6	0.392	0.002	1.169	0.344	0.090	0.026	0.007
NYG	3-9	0.383	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-9	0.352	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	2-10	0.317	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	3-8-1	0.310	1.928	1.928	0.449	0.092	0.019	0.004
TEN	2-10	0.275	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	2-10	0.256	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-10	0.240	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	1-11	0.218	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 13, Sunday

New England over Green Bay

Both New England and Arizona lost, and now every team will have at least 3 losses this year. Both teams have fallen back in their playoff chances as well, with both having previously been over 99% likely to make it. They're still in good position, but Arizona is not in the runaway position they once were.

The Rams won a huge shutout, which inflated their strength quite a bit. They're still just barely alive in the playoff hunt.

I mentioned that Minnesota was not actually eliminated from their division on Thursday despite my numbers, because a future Green Bay-Detroit tie could have kept them alive. But Green Bay's win yesterday actually eliminates them from the division. Unfortunately, I now have Tampa Bay allegedly eliminated, but in the same situation. If enough games go the right way, a tie between Atlanta and New Orleans in week 16 could keep Tampa alive. In short, next year's simulations will include ties.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-3	0.686	89.309	95.645	87.893	51.661	29.966	16.817
GB	9-3	0.682	71.364	95.809	83.162	50.071	29.051	15.937
BAL	7-5	0.660	19.101	37.908	21.810	11.255	5.952	3.169
IND	8-4	0.658	94.940	95.504	62.755	33.701	17.906	9.494
SEA	8-4	0.658	43.285	76.032	55.974	30.886	16.561	8.644
PHI	9-3	0.646	87.440	92.454	73.191	39.836	21.008	10.700
BUF	7-5	0.626	9.336	26.629	14.836	7.239	3.623	1.802
DEN	9-3	0.618	90.253	97.503	83.703	42.502	19.934	9.720
KC	7-5	0.616	2.364	48.337	24.832	11.685	5.637	2.730
HOU	6-6	0.583	5.060	15.896	7.581	3.354	1.522	0.689
MIA	5-6	0.581	1.354	8.728	4.151	1.844	0.832	0.374
ARI	9-3	0.578	53.895	91.545	68.032	31.192	13.743	6.030
SD	8-4	0.563	7.384	54.894	27.399	11.573	4.928	2.128
DET	8-4	0.561	28.634	74.566	44.482	19.102	8.282	3.494
DAL	8-4	0.556	12.560	49.923	26.691	11.333	4.852	2.026
PIT	7-5	0.540	14.930	30.848	15.281	5.986	2.391	0.978
CIN	8-3-1	0.529	58.106	73.337	43.281	16.818	6.404	2.553
CLE	7-5	0.516	7.863	14.771	6.479	2.382	0.903	0.349
SF	7-5	0.512	2.809	18.209	8.393	3.161	1.232	0.462
NO	5-7	0.509	54.266	54.266	22.247	8.260	3.108	1.156
ATL	5-7	0.485	43.808	43.808	16.936	5.947	2.109	0.737
STL	5-7	0.451	0.010	0.254	0.089	0.027	0.009	0.003
MIN	5-7	0.445	-	0.041	0.013	0.004	0.001	0.000
CHI	6-6	0.392	0.002	1.166	0.343	0.090	0.025	0.007
NYG	3-9	0.382	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-9	0.352	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	2-10	0.317	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	3-8-1	0.310	1.927	1.927	0.448	0.091	0.019	0.004
TEN	2-10	0.275	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	2-9	0.270	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-10	0.240	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	1-11	0.218	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 14

I'm beginning to think no one's going to take down Florida State.

Mississippi State lost and fell out of the top 4, and Ohio State and Oregon each moved up a spot to #3 and #4. Marshall would have been 5 (I checked), but they lost, and fell down to #14, and that's all the playoff committee will need to exclude them. UCLA and Georgia also lost, and Georgia Tech's win over highly-ranked Georgia jumped them over Missouri, up to #5 with Missouri #6 now.

The top 8 teams in my rankings all have conference championship games to play next week, with #1 facing #5 for the ACC, #2 facing #6 for the SEC, and #3 facing #7 for the Big 10, so there are still lots of possibilities for my end of season top 4.

1	Florida State	12-0
2	Alabama	11-1
3	Ohio State	11-1
4	Oregon	11-1
5	Georgia Tech	10-2
6	Missouri	10-2
7	Wisconsin	10-2
8	Boise State	10-2
9	Mississippi State	10-2
10	Michigan State	10-2
11	TCU	10-1
12	Arizona	10-2
13	Ole Miss	9-3
14	Marshall	11-1
15	UCLA	9-3
16	Baylor	10-1
17	Georgia	9-3
18	Clemson	9-3
19	Colorado State	10-2
20	Nebraska	9-3
21	Kansas State	9-2
22	Northern Illinois	10-2
23	Arizona State	9-3
24	Auburn	8-4
25	Louisville	9-3
26	LSU	8-4
27	Utah State	9-4
28	Utah	8-4
29	USC	8-4
30	Minnesota	8-4
31	Air Force	9-3
32	Duke	9-3
33	Oklahoma	8-3
34	Memphis	9-3
35	Louisiana Tech	8-4
36	Washington	8-5
37	Georgia Southern	9-3
38	Toledo	8-4
39	BYU	8-4
40	Texas A&M	7-5
41	Louisiana-Lafayette	8-4
42	Cincinnati	8-3
43	Maryland	7-5
44	North Carolina State	7-5
45	UCF	8-3
46	Notre Dame	7-5
47	Stanford	7-5
48	East Carolina	8-3
49	Boston College	7-5
50	Rutgers	7-5
51	Iowa	7-5
52	West Virginia	7-5
53	Western Michigan	8-4
54	Tennessee	6-6
55	Western Kentucky	7-5
56	North Carolina	6-6
57	Arkansas	6-6
58	Nevada	7-5
59	Florida	6-5
60	Miami (FL)	6-6
61	Illinois	6-6
62	Virginia Tech	6-6
63	Rice	7-5
64	South Carolina	6-6
65	UTEP	7-5
66	Arkansas State	7-5
67	Central Michigan	7-5
68	Houston	7-4
69	Navy	6-5
70	Bowling Green	7-5
71	Texas	6-6
72	Pittsburgh	6-6
73	Appalachian State	7-5
74	Penn State	6-6
75	Virginia	5-7
76	Texas State	7-5
77	Middle Tennessee	6-6
78	San Diego State	6-5
79	Fresno State	6-6
80	Old Dominion	6-6
81	Northwestern	5-7
82	UAB	6-6
83	Kentucky	5-7
84	Michigan	5-7
85	California	5-7
86	South Alabama	6-6
87	Ohio	6-6
88	Oklahoma State	5-6
89	Oregon State	5-7
90	Ball State	5-7
91	Temple	5-6
92	Indiana	4-8
93	Wyoming	4-8
94	Texas Tech	4-8
95	Buffalo	5-6
96	New Mexico	4-8
97	South Florida	4-8
98	Florida International	4-8
99	Syracuse	3-9
100	Akron	5-7
101	Army	4-7
102	Purdue	3-9
103	Washington State	3-9
104	Hawaii	4-9
105	UTSA	4-8
106	Tulane	3-8
107	Vanderbilt	3-9
108	Louisiana-Monroe	4-8
109	Southern Miss	3-9
110	Wake Forest	3-9
111	Kansas	3-9
112	San Jose State	3-7
113	North Texas	4-8
114	Florida Atlantic	3-9
115	Iowa State	2-9
116	Colorado	2-10
117	Troy	3-9
118	Connecticut	2-9
119	Eastern Michigan	2-10
120	UNLV	2-11
121	Massachusetts	3-9
122	Kent State	2-9
123	Miami (OH)	2-10
124	Tulsa	2-10
125	New Mexico State	2-10
126	Georgia State	1-11
127	Idaho	1-10
128	SMU	0-11

2014 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0

Week 2 LSU
Week 3 Oklahoma
Week 4 North Carolina State
Week 5 Nebraska
Week 6 Auburn
Week 7 Mississippi State
Week 8 Florida State
Week 9 Mississippi State
Week 10 Mississippi State
Week 11 Mississippi State
Week 12 Florida State
Week 13 Florida State

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 13, Thursday

New England over Green Bay

Detroit's win finally truly eliminated the Giants, according to the online sources I cross-check when I show a team as eliminated. A tie or Chicago win would have kept them alive. Now I have yet another elimination that shouldn't be there: Minnesota as division champs. I still have them as possible wildcards, though. They can go as high as 9-7, but the winner of Green Bay and Detroit would seem to hold the tiebreaker over Minnesota, if they also finish 9-7. Green Bay and Detroit could tie, though, and both finish 8-7-1, and behind the Vikings.

I suppose I should reintroduce ties into my simulations, but even a 1% chance seems very high, given that there has been 1 per year (1 in 256) since 2012, and only 5 since 2002, the 32-team era. But, with only a 1% chance of a tie, it's still rather unlikely the NFC North Champion Minnesota scenario would have come up.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-2	0.688	96.496	98.437	93.715	55.491	32.669	18.547
GB	8-3	0.671	62.661	89.427	71.665	41.031	23.326	12.537
BAL	7-4	0.665	33.794	60.432	38.986	20.847	11.192	6.069
SEA	8-4	0.657	28.697	78.490	56.940	31.504	17.037	8.904
PHI	9-3	0.646	86.978	92.066	71.157	38.467	20.597	10.506
KC	7-4	0.641	24.161	65.462	42.066	21.660	10.990	5.671
IND	7-4	0.629	93.975	94.226	56.828	28.635	14.082	7.080
ARI	9-2	0.604	69.680	97.038	83.920	41.839	19.752	9.197
DEN	8-3	0.595	67.235	86.860	65.475	31.344	13.890	6.493
BUF	6-5	0.591	2.709	12.492	6.398	2.836	1.322	0.614
MIA	5-6	0.580	0.795	7.329	3.530	1.537	0.704	0.319
SD	7-4	0.564	8.605	29.785	15.716	6.707	2.887	1.260
DET	8-4	0.561	37.321	75.928	45.473	19.930	8.667	3.665
DAL	8-4	0.556	13.022	49.328	26.564	11.426	4.916	2.056
CLE	7-4	0.551	14.487	30.985	15.644	6.428	2.657	1.126
PIT	7-4	0.546	21.238	45.890	24.662	10.046	4.068	1.705
HOU	5-6	0.535	6.025	10.261	4.507	1.782	0.724	0.296
CIN	7-3-1	0.526	30.481	57.841	32.473	12.688	4.813	1.923
SF	7-5	0.512	1.622	16.441	7.590	2.937	1.150	0.432
NO	4-7	0.504	53.518	53.518	21.010	7.883	2.949	1.086
ATL	4-7	0.464	34.392	34.392	12.294	4.172	1.412	0.470
MIN	4-7	0.405	-	0.014	0.004	0.001	0.000	0.000
CHI	6-6	0.392	0.018	1.205	0.351	0.097	0.027	0.007
WAS	3-8	0.386	-	0.000	0.000	-	-	-
NYG	3-8	0.385	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	4-7	0.351	0.001	0.064	0.016	0.004	0.001	0.000
CAR	3-7-1	0.341	11.964	11.964	2.985	0.702	0.164	0.038
TB	2-9	0.326	0.125	0.125	0.030	0.007	0.002	0.000
TEN	2-9	0.307	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	1-10	0.288	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	2-9	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-10	0.245	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]

2013 Allen and Ginter Set, Part II

As I mentioned in my last post of Allen and Ginter cards, I bought an almost-complete Allen and Ginter set (minus Puig), along with a separate purchase of the 50 Short Prints. Before I file it away with my "sorted" cards, here are the rest of the Cardinals from the set.

2013 Allen and Ginter
#108 Bob Gibson
#115 Stan Musial
#139 Red Schoendienst
#161 Enos Slaughter
#254 Lou Brock
#341 Ozzie Smith

6 Hall of Fame cards is a pretty good number out of a single set that mostly features current players. These players all have numbers retired by the Cardinals.

2013 Allen and Ginter
#125 Matt Holliday
#172 Jon Jay
#276 Lance Lynn
#283 Jason Motte
#340 Yadier Molina
#342 Adam Wainwright

There were also 6 Cardinals pictured in uniform in the set that are still on the team, though Motte hasn't been re-signed yet. Everyone else will be back, though.

2013 Allen and Ginter
#96 Jayson Heyward

Finally, here I have the newest Cardinal, Jason Heyward. I'll be interested to see how his 2015 goes, since it's his contract year, and what that ultimately means for his next contract, whether its with St. Louis or elsewhere. His acquisition puts 2 2014 Gold Glovers in the Cardinals' 2015 lineup, and may be the tipping point to make me decide to attend the Cardinals' Winter Warmup this year, to get an in-person autograph before he even plays his first game here.

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 12, Final

New England over Green Bay

The reason I had trouble finding the right combination of games to get the Giants in the playoffs is that it likely involves someone tying in order to keep 1 or 2 teams at 7-8-1 and just behind the Giants best possible record of 8-8 . It's clear that they would have to be a wildcard, since both Dallas and Philadelphia have won 8 games, and they still have a game to play against each other. One of them will have to be at least 8-7-1, which will beat the Giants.

After some simulating and searching, the answer lies in the very next game - Chicago at Detroit. A tie in that game opens up the possibility of the Giants making the playoffs with no further ties. It would appear that a Detroit win would eliminate the Giants, through an extremely complex set of possible tiebreaker pairings (and triplets). A Chicago win keeps them alive, but requires the Detroit at Chicago game in a few weeks to be a tie. Given the unlikely nature of ties, Giants fans had better be rooting for one this week.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-2	0.688	96.498	98.448	93.783	55.529	32.696	19.060
GB	8-3	0.671	74.547	90.376	75.149	44.707	26.336	14.154
BAL	7-4	0.665	33.805	60.588	39.136	20.934	11.238	6.265
KC	7-4	0.641	24.241	65.618	42.177	21.722	11.020	5.858
IND	7-4	0.629	93.721	93.966	56.392	28.393	13.965	7.239
SEA	7-4	0.622	18.026	61.724	41.026	21.327	10.951	5.300
PHI	8-3	0.608	57.951	75.695	53.460	26.947	13.647	6.420
ARI	9-2	0.604	74.209	96.857	85.669	44.780	21.872	10.181
DAL	8-3	0.598	42.049	74.711	51.284	25.163	12.375	5.692
DEN	8-3	0.595	67.468	87.000	65.667	31.446	13.932	6.727
BUF	6-5	0.591	2.707	12.572	6.447	2.857	1.332	0.640
MIA	5-6	0.580	0.794	7.377	3.555	1.548	0.709	0.332
SD	7-4	0.564	8.292	28.953	15.243	6.502	2.800	1.264
CLE	7-4	0.551	14.481	31.116	15.715	6.456	2.668	1.171
SF	7-4	0.549	7.763	40.671	23.464	10.330	4.512	1.855
PIT	7-4	0.546	21.237	45.929	24.683	10.053	4.070	1.768
HOU	5-6	0.535	6.279	10.461	4.597	1.819	0.739	0.313
CIN	7-3-1	0.526	30.477	57.971	32.606	12.742	4.832	2.002
DET	7-4	0.519	24.768	52.473	29.128	12.039	4.941	1.888
NO	4-7	0.504	52.859	52.859	21.753	8.437	3.273	1.205
ATL	4-7	0.464	34.800	34.800	13.038	4.603	1.622	0.539
CHI	6-5	0.423	0.685	7.382	2.727	0.857	0.274	0.081
MIN	4-7	0.405	0.000	0.017	0.005	0.001	0.000	0.000
WAS	3-8	0.386	-	0.000	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-8	0.385	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	4-7	0.351	0.001	0.094	0.025	0.006	0.002	0.000
CAR	3-7-1	0.341	12.197	12.197	3.235	0.792	0.194	0.045
TB	2-9	0.326	0.145	0.145	0.036	0.009	0.002	0.000
TEN	2-9	0.307	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	1-10	0.287	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	2-9	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-10	0.245	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 12, Sunday

New England over Green Bay

Arizona's loss and Green Bay's high point differential has the Packers on top of the NFC, and the favored teams are finally the strongest teams. Tennessee and Jacksonville are both eliminated from the playoffs. The Jets had few enough playoff appearances in the 1 billion simulations that they never made it to the Superbowl, and Washington never got out of the first round. None of my simulations showed the Giants making the playoffs, and I even tried to create a scenario in which they would, but I couldn't find one. I'm convinced it would require some ties, which I don't have in my simulations, as well as some 3-way or 4-way tiebreakers. But much like the Raiders who were technically alive a few weeks ago, I'm sure their official elimination will come very soon.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-2	0.688	98.111	99.054	94.733	56.520	33.524	19.529
GB	8-3	0.671	75.461	91.174	76.298	45.339	26.678	14.405
BAL	6-4	0.656	25.272	50.891	31.597	16.458	8.710	4.765
KC	7-4	0.641	23.251	67.285	43.195	22.354	11.419	6.066
IND	7-4	0.629	93.654	93.966	56.412	28.575	14.142	7.324
SEA	7-4	0.622	18.026	61.432	40.429	20.972	10.750	5.231
PHI	8-3	0.608	57.903	75.618	52.926	26.591	13.439	6.356
ARI	9-2	0.604	74.132	96.802	85.242	44.408	21.652	10.134
DAL	8-3	0.598	42.097	74.684	50.870	24.886	12.221	5.651
DEN	8-3	0.595	68.894	89.515	68.625	33.247	14.786	7.133
MIA	5-6	0.580	0.752	7.806	3.788	1.642	0.757	0.354
SD	7-4	0.564	7.854	30.378	15.972	6.822	2.956	1.333
CLE	7-4	0.551	17.149	36.128	18.372	7.556	3.139	1.377
SF	7-4	0.549	7.842	40.589	23.141	10.167	4.433	1.834
PIT	7-4	0.546	23.055	47.641	25.627	10.482	4.270	1.854
HOU	5-6	0.535	6.346	11.357	5.028	1.987	0.814	0.344
CIN	7-3-1	0.526	34.524	60.390	34.214	13.457	5.130	2.123
DET	7-4	0.519	23.939	52.337	28.891	11.900	4.874	1.874
NO	4-6	0.516	62.162	62.163	26.372	10.532	4.213	1.612
BUF	5-5	0.514	1.136	5.587	2.436	0.901	0.355	0.143
ATL	4-7	0.464	28.456	28.456	10.667	3.761	1.325	0.443
CHI	6-5	0.423	0.600	7.257	2.646	0.829	0.264	0.079
MIN	4-7	0.405	0.000	0.016	0.004	0.001	0.000	0.000
WAS	3-8	0.386	-	0.000	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-8	0.385	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	4-7	0.351	0.001	0.089	0.023	0.006	0.002	0.000
CAR	3-7-1	0.341	9.285	9.285	2.465	0.602	0.148	0.034
TB	2-9	0.326	0.097	0.097	0.024	0.006	0.001	0.000
NYJ	2-8	0.326	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	-	-
TEN	2-9	0.307	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	1-10	0.288	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-10	0.245	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 13

My top 3 all stayed the same this week, but Oregon fell from #4 to #5, and Ohio State rose to #4. Even though it wasn't an impressive win, Marshall won again to go 11-0, and is all the way up to #6 in my rankings. If the polls give them a similar jump, I think we'll be in for a controversial playoff selection, whether they are in or out.

Missouri beat Tennessee in a game that was a little tense, then felt well in-hand, then got tense again when Mizzou missed a PAT which caused their lead to be only 16 points, Tennessee scored a TD and 2 point conversion, and seemed to recover the first onside kick. An offsides by Mizzou forced a re-kick - which seems odd to me, Tennessee should have had the option to get the result of the play - and Missouri recovered and ultimately finished out the victory. With more win they'll win the SEC East, and promptly lose to Alabama.

Apparently I was too eager to get my FBS list for 2014. I saw a mention of "all 128" FBS teams this week, and since I like to note the bottom of my rankings, I knew I had only 127 in my list. After a bit of digging, I saw that I was missing Old Dominion. This hasn't made the rankings wrong to any extreme, since their games still counted. It just meant Old Dominion was filtered out when I listed the top to bottom rankings. So everyone worse than them should have been one lower, but the relative rankings were correct, and anyone above them was exactly correct. I believe their highest rank would have been #40 in week 4, so nothing of true consequence was affected.

So, today, SMU falls to a new low: #128! Hang in there, Mustangs; even the Rams won a Superbowl in 2000 after a terrible late 90s.

1	Florida State	11-0
2	Alabama	10-1
3	Mississippi State	10-1
4	Ohio State	10-1
5	Oregon	10-1
6	Marshall	11-0
7	UCLA	9-2
8	Georgia	9-2
9	Missouri	9-2
10	Georgia Tech	9-2
11	Wisconsin	9-2
12	TCU	9-1
13	Michigan State	9-2
14	Colorado State	10-1
15	Boise State	9-2
16	Auburn	8-3
17	Arizona	9-2
18	Ole Miss	8-3
19	Arizona State	9-2
20	Baylor	9-1
21	Kansas State	8-2
22	Clemson	8-3
23	Utah State	9-3
24	Nebraska	8-3
25	Minnesota	8-3
26	Northern Illinois	9-2
27	Louisville	8-3
28	Oklahoma	8-3
29	LSU	7-4
30	Texas A&M	7-4
31	Utah	7-4
32	Maryland	7-4
33	Duke	8-3
34	Notre Dame	7-4
35	Memphis	8-3
36	USC	7-4
37	Air Force	8-3
38	Washington	7-5
39	Iowa	7-4
40	Western Michigan	8-3
41	Toledo	7-4
42	Georgia Southern	8-3
43	Arkansas	6-5
44	Louisiana Tech	7-4
45	North Carolina	6-5
46	Louisiana-Lafayette	7-4
47	Miami (FL)	6-5
48	Cincinnati	7-3
49	Florida	6-4
50	BYU	7-4
51	UCF	7-3
52	East Carolina	7-3
53	West Virginia	6-5
54	Rice	7-4
55	South Carolina	6-5
56	North Carolina State	6-5
57	Boston College	6-5
58	Tennessee	5-6
59	Stanford	6-5
60	Bowling Green	7-4
61	Central Michigan	7-5
62	Rutgers	6-5
63	Texas	6-5
64	Nevada	6-5
65	Penn State	6-5
66	Virginia	5-6
67	Illinois	5-6
68	Virginia Tech	5-6
69	Northwestern	5-6
70	Arkansas State	6-5
71	Middle Tennessee	6-5
72	Houston	6-4
73	Western Kentucky	6-5
74	Kentucky	5-6
75	San Diego State	6-5
76	Appalachian State	6-5
77	California	5-6
78	Michigan	5-6
79	South Alabama	6-5
80	UTEP	6-5
81	Pittsburgh	5-6
82	Navy	5-5
83	Oklahoma State	5-6
84	Texas State	6-5
85	Oregon State	5-6
86	UAB	5-6
87	Fresno State	5-6
88	Old Dominion	5-6
89	Ohio	5-6
90	Temple	5-5
91	Wyoming	4-7
92	Texas Tech	4-7
93	Akron	5-6
94	Purdue	3-8
95	Syracuse	3-8
96	South Florida	4-7
97	Ball State	4-7
98	Indiana	3-8
99	Florida International	4-8
100	Hawaii	4-8
101	Vanderbilt	3-8
102	Buffalo	4-6
103	Army	4-7
104	Washington State	3-8
105	Southern Miss	3-8
106	Louisiana-Monroe	4-7
107	Kansas	3-8
108	Tulane	3-8
109	Wake Forest	3-8
110	San Jose State	3-7
111	North Texas	4-7
112	New Mexico	3-8
113	Iowa State	2-8
114	Florida Atlantic	3-8
115	UTSA	3-8
116	Colorado	2-9
117	Troy	3-8
118	Connecticut	2-8
119	Massachusetts	3-8
120	Eastern Michigan	2-9
121	Miami (OH)	2-9
122	UNLV	2-10
123	Tulsa	2-9
124	New Mexico State	2-9
125	Kent State	1-9
126	Georgia State	1-10
127	Idaho	1-9
128	SMU	0-10

2014 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0

Week 2 LSU
Week 3 Oklahoma
Week 4 North Carolina State
Week 5 Nebraska
Week 6 Auburn
Week 7 Mississippi State
Week 8 Florida State
Week 9 Mississippi State
Week 10 Mississippi State
Week 11 Mississippi State
Week 12 Florida State

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 12, Thursday

New England over Arizona

I wonder what the record is for teams in their first game after elimination, as compared to pre-elimination. Oakland certainly tipped that balance in favor of the eliminated teams last night, waiting until their season was utterly meaningless to upset Kansas City. KC only lost by a little, so they're still the 4th strongest team. However, they were expected to win that game, so their odds of winning the AFC West just fell precipitously, and Denver's improved greatly. Even San Diego's chances almost doubled to over 9%.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
GB	7-3	0.662	53.698	87.651	68.980	40.153	22.929	12.674
BAL	6-4	0.656	30.432	53.459	35.224	19.372	10.698	5.872
NE	8-2	0.650	90.357	95.602	87.474	49.291	27.476	14.900
KC	7-4	0.641	30.451	69.111	47.718	25.939	13.895	7.407
ARI	9-1	0.631	90.451	99.099	94.623	52.858	27.939	14.502
DAL	7-3	0.594	45.251	73.877	47.778	23.034	11.217	5.392
DEN	7-3	0.593	60.423	79.534	60.017	29.699	14.087	6.796
IND	6-4	0.592	80.594	82.447	47.809	23.081	11.023	5.309
MIA	5-5	0.591	6.993	26.011	14.745	7.037	3.432	1.650
SEA	6-4	0.587	6.414	40.813	24.244	11.335	5.411	2.558
DET	7-3	0.585	45.823	81.228	57.387	27.820	13.137	6.197
PHI	7-3	0.580	54.693	71.896	44.751	20.906	9.871	4.602
SD	6-4	0.559	9.126	26.773	14.891	6.694	3.011	1.347
HOU	5-5	0.554	19.387	31.419	16.569	7.303	3.215	1.423
CLE	6-4	0.548	15.845	30.840	16.483	7.135	3.096	1.352
PIT	7-4	0.546	30.416	53.109	31.104	13.461	5.775	2.515
SF	6-4	0.539	3.116	39.349	20.715	8.655	3.708	1.577
NO	4-6	0.516	55.191	55.214	23.341	9.210	3.714	1.501
BUF	5-5	0.514	2.650	7.742	3.613	1.448	0.592	0.240
CIN	6-3-1	0.506	23.307	43.936	24.348	9.541	3.701	1.468
ATL	4-6	0.468	36.863	36.884	13.922	4.887	1.751	0.627
CHI	5-5	0.411	0.450	5.020	1.837	0.548	0.171	0.053
MIN	4-6	0.411	0.030	0.543	0.182	0.054	0.017	0.005
WAS	3-7	0.398	0.021	0.066	0.021	0.006	0.002	0.001
NYG	3-7	0.388	0.034	0.057	0.018	0.005	0.001	0.000
STL	4-6	0.356	0.019	0.358	0.103	0.026	0.007	0.002
TB	2-8	0.345	0.387	0.387	0.105	0.026	0.006	0.002
CAR	3-7-1	0.341	7.559	7.559	1.993	0.478	0.118	0.029
TEN	2-8	0.333	0.018	0.018	0.005	0.001	0.000	0.000
NYJ	2-8	0.326	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
OAK	1-10	0.287	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-9	0.281	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]

2013 Allen and Ginter Set

You read that title right; we're throwing back allllll the way to 2013.

I bought the full set (almost) from Nachos Grande last year, and it's been sitting on my shelf as I procrastinated entering the cards into my Zistle account. I actually purchased the non-SPs only, and this was also at the beginning of Puig-mania, so a Puig-free set was offered at a substantial discount, so I decided to take a chance that Yasiel Puig would cool off a bit, along with the prices for his cards. So far that doesn't seem to be happening, though. In any case, the set I purchased was 299 of the 300 base cards. In a separate purchase, I bought all 50 of the SPs, so I'm at 349/350, needing only a Puig to finish off the set.

I decided while flipping through the cards again that I'd go ahead and post the Cardinals like I normally do, but there were a large number of them by my criteria. I tried to split them up somewhat logically, though with all of the retired players the divisions became a bit fuzzy. Today was supposed to be players who have moved on from the team.

2013 Allen and Ginter
#5 Albert Pujols
#12 Dan Haren
#20 John Smoltz
#27 Shelby Miller
#46 Colby Rasmus
#93 A.J. Pierzynski

The Shelby Miller trade caught me off guard, and I had to re-scan my cards. Also, I don't know what I was thinking putting A.J. Pierzynski in this pile, even though he is technically a free agent right now. He could still be a Cardinal next year, though he may just as easily be playing somewhere else. Also, Smoltz retired after a partial season with the Cardinals, so one could argue he should have been in the next post, with guys like Ozzie Smith.

2013 Allen and Ginter
#183 Ryan Ludwick
#189 David Freese
#208 Allen Craig
#235 Carlos Beltran
#245 Mark Buehrle
#284 Will Clark

Will Clark's another guy who finished with the Cardinals, though he clearly had the most productive years of his career elsewhere. And Mark Beuhrle has never been a Cardinal, though I still suspect he'd give them a pretty good hometown discount. I like to track his cards just because he grew up in the same town as me.

In conclusion...these are some random 2013 Allen and Ginter cards of guys I collect for reasons not limited to playing for the Cardinals?