Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 12, Sunday

New England over Green Bay

Arizona's loss and Green Bay's high point differential has the Packers on top of the NFC, and the favored teams are finally the strongest teams. Tennessee and Jacksonville are both eliminated from the playoffs. The Jets had few enough playoff appearances in the 1 billion simulations that they never made it to the Superbowl, and Washington never got out of the first round. None of my simulations showed the Giants making the playoffs, and I even tried to create a scenario in which they would, but I couldn't find one. I'm convinced it would require some ties, which I don't have in my simulations, as well as some 3-way or 4-way tiebreakers. But much like the Raiders who were technically alive a few weeks ago, I'm sure their official elimination will come very soon.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-2	0.688	98.111	99.054	94.733	56.520	33.524	19.529
GB	8-3	0.671	75.461	91.174	76.298	45.339	26.678	14.405
BAL	6-4	0.656	25.272	50.891	31.597	16.458	8.710	4.765
KC	7-4	0.641	23.251	67.285	43.195	22.354	11.419	6.066
IND	7-4	0.629	93.654	93.966	56.412	28.575	14.142	7.324
SEA	7-4	0.622	18.026	61.432	40.429	20.972	10.750	5.231
PHI	8-3	0.608	57.903	75.618	52.926	26.591	13.439	6.356
ARI	9-2	0.604	74.132	96.802	85.242	44.408	21.652	10.134
DAL	8-3	0.598	42.097	74.684	50.870	24.886	12.221	5.651
DEN	8-3	0.595	68.894	89.515	68.625	33.247	14.786	7.133
MIA	5-6	0.580	0.752	7.806	3.788	1.642	0.757	0.354
SD	7-4	0.564	7.854	30.378	15.972	6.822	2.956	1.333
CLE	7-4	0.551	17.149	36.128	18.372	7.556	3.139	1.377
SF	7-4	0.549	7.842	40.589	23.141	10.167	4.433	1.834
PIT	7-4	0.546	23.055	47.641	25.627	10.482	4.270	1.854
HOU	5-6	0.535	6.346	11.357	5.028	1.987	0.814	0.344
CIN	7-3-1	0.526	34.524	60.390	34.214	13.457	5.130	2.123
DET	7-4	0.519	23.939	52.337	28.891	11.900	4.874	1.874
NO	4-6	0.516	62.162	62.163	26.372	10.532	4.213	1.612
BUF	5-5	0.514	1.136	5.587	2.436	0.901	0.355	0.143
ATL	4-7	0.464	28.456	28.456	10.667	3.761	1.325	0.443
CHI	6-5	0.423	0.600	7.257	2.646	0.829	0.264	0.079
MIN	4-7	0.405	0.000	0.016	0.004	0.001	0.000	0.000
WAS	3-8	0.386	-	0.000	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-8	0.385	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	4-7	0.351	0.001	0.089	0.023	0.006	0.002	0.000
CAR	3-7-1	0.341	9.285	9.285	2.465	0.602	0.148	0.034
TB	2-9	0.326	0.097	0.097	0.024	0.006	0.001	0.000
NYJ	2-8	0.326	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	-	-
TEN	2-9	0.307	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	1-10	0.288	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-10	0.245	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]