Tenets of Wilson: 2020-01

2020-01-13

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Divisional Sunday

San Francisco over Kansas City

I really thought Kansas City would lose after giving up the first 24 points of the game, but they came back to score 51 and only allow 7 more, completing a Scorigami in the process. I didn't get to watch the Green Bay game, but it didn't seem like it was every really in doubt, despite the eventual close finish.

Tennessee at Kansas City (64%)
Once again, I've got to root for Kansas City in this one.

Green Bay at San Francisco (68%)
Since this is the second game of the day, I think it'll be contingent on the first. If Kansas City wins, I'll root for Green Bay just for the fun of a Super Bowl I rematch. If Tennessee wins, I'll root for San Francisco, because that's the only combination that gives me a glimmer of hope in Collector's Crack's 10th Annual Almost the Easiest Super Bowl Contest on the Web. I didn't pick Tennessee, but no one else did either, but I did pick San Francisco to lose (to New England). Then, I just need exactly 48 or 49 points to be scored, including 3 Field Goals to tie another entrant and exactly 4 to win outright. Piece of cake, right?

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	13-3	0.786	++	++	++	++	67.99	39.99
KC	12-4	0.758	++	++	++	++	63.64	33.02
TEN	9-7	0.641	-	++	++	++	36.36	14.01
GB	13-3	0.634	++	++	++	++	32.01	12.98
BAL	14-2	0.869	++	++	++	-	-	-
NE	12-4	0.866	++	++	-	-	-	-
MIN	10-6	0.707	-	++	++	-	-	-
NO	13-3	0.707	++	++	-	-	-	-
BUF	10-6	0.640	-	++	-	-	-	-
PHI	9-7	0.562	++	++	-	-	-	-
SEA	11-5	0.513	-	++	++	-	-	-
HOU	10-6	0.486	++	++	++	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 17] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Divisional Saturday] San Francisco over Kansas City

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 20

We crossed a Saturday, so what the heck, let's call it another week. There were just 2 games since my last rankings. First was just another FBS bowl, Louisiana over Miami-Ohio. The other game was the FCS title game, which went to North Dakota State for the 8th time in 9 years. They beat James Madison, the only other school to win the title in that span (2016).

Those results caused Louisiana to jump from #28 to #21, Miami to lose one place down to #47. Other seemingly random teams to move around were Liberty up one spot over Tulane at #64, Troy passing Tulsa at #92, and Arkansas moving from #123 to a tie with New Mexico for #122.

There's one game left, which should put the winner of LSU and Clemson atop my rankings.

1	LSU	14-0
2	Clemson	14-0
3	Ohio State	13-1
4	Oregon	12-2
5	Appalachian State	13-1
6	Georgia	12-2
7	Memphis	12-2
8	Oklahoma	12-2
9	Boise State	12-2
10	Florida	11-2
11	Penn State	11-2
12	Notre Dame	11-2
13	Utah	11-3
14	Navy	11-2
15	Cincinnati	11-3
16	Baylor	11-3
17	Minnesota	11-2
18	Alabama	11-2
19	Air Force	11-2
20	Florida Atlantic	11-3
21	Louisiana	11-3
22	Wisconsin	10-4
23	Iowa	10-3
24	UCF	10-3
25	SMU	10-3
26	Hawai'i	10-5
27	San Diego State	10-3
28	Auburn	9-4
29	Michigan	9-4
30	Virginia	9-5
31	Louisiana Tech	10-3
32	Western Kentucky	9-4
33	Louisville	8-5
34	Washington	8-5
35	USC	8-5
36	Tennessee	8-5
37	Texas	8-5
38	Arizona State	8-5
39	Kansas State	8-5
40	Pittsburgh	8-5
41	Oklahoma State	8-5
42	Kentucky	8-5
43	Marshall	8-5
44	Wake Forest	8-5
45	California	8-5
46	Texas A&M	8-5
47	Miami (OH)	8-6
48	Buffalo	8-5
49	Virginia Tech	8-5
50	UAB	9-5
51	Arkansas State	8-5
52	Wyoming	8-5
53	Temple	8-5
54	Iowa State	7-6
55	Central Michigan	8-6
56	BYU	7-6
57	Utah State	7-6
58	North Carolina	7-6
59	Indiana	8-5
60	Michigan State	7-6
61	Kent State	7-6
62	Western Michigan	7-6
63	Georgia Southern	7-6
64	Liberty	8-5
65	Tulane	7-6
66	Southern Mississippi	7-6
67	Georgia State	7-6
68	Nevada	7-6
69	Ohio	7-6
70	Mississippi State	6-7
71	Florida State	6-7
72	Miami	6-7
73	Charlotte	7-6
74	Boston College	6-7
75	Missouri	6-6
76	Eastern Michigan	6-7
77	Toledo	6-6
78	Washington State	6-7
79	Duke	5-7
80	West Virginia	5-7
81	Florida International	6-7
82	Oregon State	5-7
83	Illinois	6-7
84	TCU	5-7
85	Colorado	5-7
86	Syracuse	5-7
87	UL Monroe	5-7
88	Ball State	5-7
89	South Carolina	4-8
90	Northern Illinois	5-7
91	Nebraska	5-7
92	Troy	5-7
93	Tulsa	4-8
94	UCLA	4-8
95	Coastal Carolina	5-7
96	South Florida	4-8
97	San Jose State	5-7
98	Army	5-8
99	Houston	4-8
100	Stanford	4-8
101	Fresno State	4-8
102	Arizona	4-8
103	Ole Miss	4-8
104	Texas Tech	4-8
105	Purdue	4-8
106	NC State	4-8
107	Middle Tennessee	4-8
108	UNLV	4-8
109	Colorado State	4-8
110	East Carolina	4-8
111	North Texas	4-8
112	UTSA	4-8
113	Georgia Tech	3-9
114	Texas State	3-9
115	Kansas	3-9
116	Bowling Green	3-9
117	Maryland	3-9
118	Vanderbilt	3-9
119	Northwestern	3-9
120	Rice	3-9
121	Rutgers	2-10
T-122	New Mexico	2-10
T-122	Arkansas	2-10
124	South Alabama	2-10
125	UConn	2-10
126	New Mexico State	2-10
127	Old Dominion	1-11
128	UTEP	1-11
129	UMass	1-11
130	Akron	0-12

2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech
Week 3 Auburn
Week 4 Auburn
Week 5 Auburn
Week 6 Ohio State
Week 7 Ohio State
Week 8 Ohio State
Week 9 Ohio State
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson
Week 14 Ohio State
Week 15 Ohio State
Week 16 Ohio State
Week 17 Ohio State
Week 18 Clemson
Week 19 LSU

2020-01-12

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Divisional Saturday

San Francisco over Kansas City

Both teams I was rooting for won yesterday, San Francisco over Minnesota, and Tennessee in a surprisingly dominant win over Baltimore. Kansas City now becomes the first AFC team to be projected to make the Superbowl other than Baltimore or New England all season long.

Sunday games!

Houston at Kansas City (77%)
Kansas City is my default favorite team, so I'll pretty much always root for them. I don't think I can think of a matchup that would make me root against them, without some other side bet in play.

Seattle at Green Bay (62%)
In that past I'd root for Green Bay for sure, but I've grown to like Seattle a little bit. I think I'll still root for Green Bay, but I won't hate whichever team gets to take on San Francisco next week.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	13-3	0.786	++	++	++	++	71.7	44.3
KC	12-4	0.758	++	++	++	76.8	48.8	25.4
TEN	9-7	0.641	-	++	++	++	43.1	16.8
GB	13-3	0.634	++	++	++	62.1	19.9	8.7
SEA	11-5	0.513	-	++	++	37.9	8.4	2.7
HOU	10-6	0.486	++	++	++	23.2	8.0	2.1
BAL	14-2	0.869	++	++	++	-	-	-
NE	12-4	0.866	++	++	-	-	-	-
MIN	10-6	0.707	-	++	++	-	-	-
NO	13-3	0.707	++	++	-	-	-	-
BUF	10-6	0.640	-	++	-	-	-	-
PHI	9-7	0.562	++	++	-	-	-	-

2020-01-06

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Wildcard Sunday

Baltimore over San Francisco

The #1 seeds are still my favorites to make it to the Superbowl. Minnesota beat New Orleans, and Seattle beat Philadelphia, in a victory for the eye test over the numbers. Seattle has a lot of very small wins and a few big losses this year, skewing their strength well below their record.

Onto next weekend!

Minnesota at San Francisco (60%)
For being favored all year, I feel like San Francisco should be a bigger favorite in their first playoff game. I've never been a huge Kirk Cousins fan, so let's root for Jimmy Garoppolo and San Francisco to win this one.

Tennessee at Baltimore (79%)
There's that dominant number I come to expect. But, just to throw a monkey wrench into everything, let's root for Tennessee in this one. Neither team really grabs my attention either way, but Tennessee would be quite the Cinderella story, and also potentially make the path easier for Kansas City.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	14-2	0.869	++	++	++	78.8	57.1	41.1
SF	13-3	0.786	++	++	++	60.3	43.2	19.8
KC	12-4	0.758	++	++	++	76.8	29.7	16.5
MIN	10-6	0.707	-	++	++	39.7	24.8	9.0
GB	13-3	0.634	++	++	++	62.2	22.3	6.6
TEN	9-7	0.641	-	++	++	21.2	9.1	3.9
SEA	11-5	0.513	-	++	++	37.8	9.6	2.0
HOU	10-6	0.486	++	++	++	23.2	4.0	1.1
NE	12-4	0.866	++	++	-	-	-	-
DAL	8-8	0.711	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	13-3	0.707	++	++	-	-	-	-
BUF	10-6	0.640	-	++	-	-	-	-
PHI	9-7	0.562	++	++	-	-	-	-
LAR	9-7	0.559	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	7-9	0.515	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	5-11	0.482	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	7-9	0.476	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-9	0.466	-	-	-	-	-	-
PIT	8-8	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	8-8	0.454	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	7-9	0.416	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	6-10	0.383	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	5-10-1	0.353	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	3-12-1	0.344	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	7-9	0.313	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	4-12	0.302	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	6-10	0.302	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	7-9	0.295	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-11	0.275	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	2-14	0.227	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	5-11	0.193	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-13	0.187	-	-	-	-	-	-

2020-01-05

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 19

Well that's interesting. There were just 17 games this week, but mostly involving some high ranking and power 5 teams. They managed to flip the #1 and #2 spot by changing strengths of schedule, and LSU is now on top of my rankings for the first time this season. If I'm looking at the schedules correctly, 4 Clemson opponents played but only one won, while 4 of 6 LSU opponents won. There are just 3 games remaining this year, one random Monday night bowl game, the FCS title game on Saturday, and the FBS title game next Monday.

1	LSU	14-0
2	Clemson	14-0
3	Ohio State	13-1
4	Oregon	12-2
5	Appalachian State	13-1
6	Georgia	12-2
7	Memphis	12-2
8	Oklahoma	12-2
9	Boise State	12-2
10	Florida	11-2
11	Penn State	11-2
12	Notre Dame	11-2
13	Utah	11-3
14	Navy	11-2
15	Cincinnati	11-3
16	Baylor	11-3
17	Minnesota	11-2
18	Alabama	11-2
19	Air Force	11-2
20	Florida Atlantic	11-3
21	Wisconsin	10-4
22	Iowa	10-3
23	UCF	10-3
24	SMU	10-3
25	Hawai'i	10-5
26	San Diego State	10-3
27	Auburn	9-4
28	Louisiana	10-3
29	Michigan	9-4
30	Virginia	9-5
31	Louisiana Tech	10-3
32	Western Kentucky	9-4
33	Louisville	8-5
34	Washington	8-5
35	USC	8-5
36	Tennessee	8-5
37	Texas	8-5
38	Arizona State	8-5
39	Kansas State	8-5
40	Pittsburgh	8-5
41	Oklahoma State	8-5
42	Kentucky	8-5
43	Marshall	8-5
44	Wake Forest	8-5
45	California	8-5
46	Miami (OH)	8-5
47	Texas A&M	8-5
48	Buffalo	8-5
49	Virginia Tech	8-5
50	UAB	9-5
51	Arkansas State	8-5
52	Wyoming	8-5
53	Temple	8-5
54	Iowa State	7-6
55	Central Michigan	8-6
56	BYU	7-6
57	Utah State	7-6
58	North Carolina	7-6
59	Indiana	8-5
60	Michigan State	7-6
61	Kent State	7-6
62	Western Michigan	7-6
63	Georgia Southern	7-6
64	Tulane	7-6
65	Liberty	8-5
66	Southern Mississippi	7-6
67	Georgia State	7-6
68	Nevada	7-6
69	Ohio	7-6
70	Mississippi State	6-7
71	Florida State	6-7
72	Miami	6-7
73	Charlotte	7-6
74	Boston College	6-7
75	Missouri	6-6
76	Eastern Michigan	6-7
77	Toledo	6-6
78	Washington State	6-7
79	Duke	5-7
80	West Virginia	5-7
81	Florida International	6-7
82	Oregon State	5-7
83	Illinois	6-7
84	TCU	5-7
85	Colorado	5-7
86	Syracuse	5-7
87	UL Monroe	5-7
88	Ball State	5-7
89	South Carolina	4-8
90	Northern Illinois	5-7
91	Nebraska	5-7
92	Tulsa	4-8
93	Troy	5-7
94	UCLA	4-8
95	Coastal Carolina	5-7
96	South Florida	4-8
97	San Jose State	5-7
98	Army	5-8
99	Houston	4-8
100	Stanford	4-8
101	Fresno State	4-8
102	Arizona	4-8
103	Ole Miss	4-8
104	Texas Tech	4-8
105	Purdue	4-8
106	NC State	4-8
107	Middle Tennessee	4-8
108	UNLV	4-8
109	Colorado State	4-8
110	East Carolina	4-8
111	North Texas	4-8
112	UTSA	4-8
113	Georgia Tech	3-9
114	Texas State	3-9
115	Kansas	3-9
116	Bowling Green	3-9
117	Maryland	3-9
118	Vanderbilt	3-9
119	Northwestern	3-9
120	Rice	3-9
121	Rutgers	2-10
122	New Mexico	2-10
123	Arkansas	2-10
124	South Alabama	2-10
125	UConn	2-10
126	New Mexico State	2-10
127	Old Dominion	1-11
128	UTEP	1-11
129	UMass	1-11
130	Akron	0-12

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Wildcard Saturday

Baltimore over San Francisco

Based on my system, we had 2 upsets yesterday, as Houston beat Buffalo (35% likely) and Tennessee beat New England (just 22% likely). Houston was the higher seed and had homefield advantage, but using points scored and allowed, they were the underdogs. New England was my AFC favorite for most of the season, but they've been steadily falling off. Everyone's already talking about what Brady's going to do in the offseason, but there are still 10 teams vying to be the champ this year.

Sunday's games!

Minnesota at New Orleans (tossup)
This one's a small rounding error from being perfectly evenly matched. I usually find myself rooting against New Orleans, perhaps dating back to their days in the NFC West with St. Louis, so I'll root for Minnesota in this one.

Seattle at Philadelphia (55%)
I'm not totally sure I believe my system on this one, as Seattle seems like the better team. Still, I'll go with it and root for Philadelphia to beat Seattle, despite my fellow Wilson at QB. Maybe it's more anti-NFC-West bias.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	14-2	0.869	++	++	++	78.8	57.1	40.9
SF	13-3	0.786	++	++	++	68.0	45.5	20.8
KC	12-4	0.758	++	++	++	76.8	29.7	16.3
GB	13-3	0.634	++	++	++	50.6	18.7	5.5
NO	13-3	0.707	++	++	50.0	29.1	13.5	4.9
MIN	10-6	0.707	-	++	50.0	19.8	12.3	4.5
TEN	9-7	0.641	-	++	++	21.2	9.1	3.8
PHI	9-7	0.562	++	++	55.0	18.8	6.2	1.5
HOU	10-6	0.486	++	++	++	23.2	4.0	1.1
SEA	11-5	0.513	-	++	45.0	13.5	3.9	0.8
NE	12-4	0.866	++	++	-	-	-	-
BUF	10-6	0.640	-	++	-	-	-	-