Kansas City beat the LA Chargers by a touchdown, which didn't have too much of an effect on the rest of the AFC. New England's giant odds took just the slightest hit, from 47.8% to 47.4% likely to make the Superbowl, because Kansas City is now 2.5 games behind New England (2 wins and 3 losses) instead of the full 3 games the AFC West leader (Oakland) would have been behind if KC had lost. KC has a tenuous half game lead by winning percentage, but is projected to be about 3 times as likely as Oakland to win the division.
I still show the same eliminations as yesterday, which is good. Somewhat curiously, I still didn't hit one single simulation in which Washington's playoff run let to a title. At 1-9, it's very unlikely to happen, but it's not technically impossible yet.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 9-1 | 0.780 | 98.4 | 100.0 | 99.1 | 73.4 | 47.4 | 30.5 |
| SF | 9-1 | 0.733 | 82.2 | 99.0 | 90.7 | 58.5 | 37.1 | 19.2 |
| BAL | 8-2 | 0.712 | 98.1 | 99.5 | 94.9 | 62.6 | 30.1 | 16.8 |
| MIN | 8-3 | 0.662 | 35.5 | 91.4 | 63.2 | 33.7 | 17.0 | 7.5 |
| DAL | 6-4 | 0.658 | 78.0 | 79.7 | 44.4 | 22.5 | 11.4 | 4.9 |
| GB | 8-2 | 0.590 | 64.4 | 94.2 | 69.6 | 31.8 | 13.1 | 4.8 |
| NO | 8-2 | 0.581 | 94.5 | 95.8 | 65.5 | 28.9 | 11.7 | 4.2 |
| KC | 7-4 | 0.592 | 74.4 | 82.3 | 49.4 | 17.8 | 6.7 | 2.9 |
| BUF | 7-3 | 0.597 | 1.6 | 81.6 | 44.8 | 15.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 |
| SEA | 8-2 | 0.537 | 16.8 | 81.9 | 41.4 | 15.2 | 5.8 | 1.9 |
| IND | 6-4 | 0.545 | 56.2 | 65.6 | 34.3 | 10.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 |
| HOU | 6-4 | 0.525 | 32.4 | 55.4 | 27.5 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| LAR | 6-4 | 0.593 | 0.9 | 22.4 | 11.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| PHI | 5-5 | 0.508 | 22.0 | 27.5 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| PIT | 5-5 | 0.495 | 1.3 | 31.4 | 14.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| OAK | 6-4 | 0.451 | 24.8 | 46.2 | 19.4 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| TEN | 5-5 | 0.514 | 10.4 | 22.0 | 10.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| CLE | 4-6 | 0.422 | 0.6 | 10.5 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| CAR | 5-5 | 0.445 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| JAC | 4-6 | 0.426 | 1.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| LAC | 4-7 | 0.514 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| CHI | 4-6 | 0.486 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| DEN | 3-7 | 0.438 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| DET | 3-6-1 | 0.450 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ATL | 3-7 | 0.420 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| TB | 3-7 | 0.444 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NYJ | 3-7 | 0.320 | - | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NYG | 2-8 | 0.349 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ARI | 3-7-1 | 0.379 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| MIA | 2-8 | 0.242 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| CIN | 0-10 | 0.270 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| WAS | 1-9 | 0.256 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)
[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
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