2019-09-03

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 1

College football is back! Week 1 is done, and here's my lazy copy-and-paste job of what I'm doing here.

A few years ago, I thought to myself, "I could do a better job than some of the BCS computers". As I recall, at the time I felt Mizzou was underrated. The BCS rules stated margin of victory cannot be used, so I thought I'd stick to that. I put together a convergence algorithm, in which I initially rank the teams by record (so all the undefeated teams start tied at #1), then calculate each team's strength of schedule based on the current rankings of its opponents, and re-sort based on that strength. I run through this process until 2 consecutive iterations give the same result, or there is a loop. So, if iteration 10,002 gives the same rankings as iteration 10,000, then each subsequent iteration would fluctuate between the rankings in 10,000 and 10,001. I average those rankings to come up with the final rankings. It is still possible - but generally unlikely - that teams can tie for a final ranking. Now that the BCS is dead, I'll just consider these rankings my advice on #1 to #4 to the College Football Playoff committee.

Due to most teams playing other teams in lower divisions at times, and a lack of desire on my part to delve so deeply that I have to track down NAIA schedules, I've decided to count all games listed on ESPN's college football site, which includes all FBS, FCS, and Division II and III schedules, and any of their lower-tier opponents, but only when those opponents play at least a Division III team. (i.e., an NAIA team will be listed when they play against a Div III team, but the rest of their games won't be listed, resulting in a lot of 0-1 teams mixed into my system). I then filter the final results to only the FBS schools.

In the past, in week 1, there were only 2 possible situations for a team. First is to be 1-0, having defeated an 0-1 team. Second is, unsurprisingly, to be a 0-1 team, having lost to a 1-0 team. For this reason, in week 1, all 1-0 teams will be tied for #1, and the rest tied at N+1, where N is the number of #1 teams. Did your team choose to beat up on an FCS (formerly known as Division 1-AA) team? Congrats, you're #1 this week! However, since 2016 we seem to be in the era of the pre-Week-1 game, which means a 2-0, 0-2, and/or 1-1 team might be in the mix. Also, some teams may not play in Week 1, and you don't get a ranking until you play, thus the bottom of the chart may not be the full number of teams in FBS.

I listed some caveats at the end there, but despite 4 teams playing over a week ago, all the FBS teams have played exactly 1 game after week 1. Last year had 129 teams, with Liberty in the midst of transitioning to full eligibility. They are there now, and we've got 130 teams. I think some rules may have changed this year, though I haven't been able to find confirmation, because the only Division II or III games were ones against FCS teams, which was only 8 total games, so they are mostly all starting next week.

Onto the fairly pointless rankings of Week 1. I want to point out that the ordering here is not significant; Florida is exactly tied with all 82 other #1 teams. Air Force is lowest ranked 1-0 team at #84 because they beat Samford, one of the two teams that has actually played 2 games, and happens to be 0-2.


1Florida1-0
1Hawai'i1-0
1Clemson1-0
1Texas A&M1-0
1Utah1-0
1UCF1-0
1Cincinnati1-0
1UConn1-0
1Bowling Green1-0
1Buffalo1-0
1Charlotte1-0
1Tulane1-0
1UAB1-0
1Central Michigan1-0
1Minnesota1-0
1Arizona State1-0
1San Jose State1-0
1Michigan State1-0
1Wisconsin1-0
1Army1-0
1Rutgers1-0
1Wake Forest1-0
1Nevada1-0
1Colorado1-0
1Oklahoma State1-0
1Alabama1-0
1Georgia1-0
1Ohio State1-0
1LSU1-0
1Michigan1-0
1Texas1-0
1Auburn1-0
1Washington1-0
1Penn State1-0
1Iowa1-0
1Iowa State1-0
1Syracuse1-0
1Washington State1-0
1Nebraska1-0
1Stanford1-0
1Illinois1-0
1Indiana1-0
1Boise State1-0
1NC State1-0
1Kansas1-0
1Kentucky1-0
1Memphis1-0
1Mississippi State1-0
1Maryland1-0
1West Virginia1-0
1Ohio1-0
1Temple1-0
1Navy1-0
1Eastern Michigan1-0
1North Carolina1-0
1Georgia State1-0
1Appalachian State1-0
1Arkansas1-0
1Texas Tech1-0
1Boston College1-0
1New Mexico1-0
1UTSA1-0
1Troy1-0
1California1-0
1Marshall1-0
1Old Dominion1-0
1Southern Mississippi1-0
1Northern Illinois1-0
1Western Michigan1-0
1SMU1-0
1Kansas State1-0
1Baylor1-0
1Wyoming1-0
1Virginia1-0
1North Texas1-0
1UTEP1-0
1TCU1-0
1UL Monroe1-0
1San Diego State1-0
1UNLV1-0
1USC1-0
1Oklahoma1-0
1Notre Dame1-0
84Air Force1-0
85Miami0-1
85Arizona0-1
85Georgia Tech0-1
85Texas State0-1
85BYU0-1
85UCLA0-1
85Western Kentucky0-1
85Florida International0-1
85Kent State0-1
85Tulsa0-1
85South Florida0-1
85Rice0-1
85UMass0-1
85Utah State0-1
85Purdue0-1
85Colorado State0-1
85Oregon State0-1
85Duke0-1
85Vanderbilt0-1
85Florida Atlantic0-1
85Georgia Southern0-1
85Middle Tennessee0-1
85Louisiana Tech0-1
85Oregon0-1
85Miami (OH)0-1
85Liberty0-1
85New Mexico State0-1
85South Alabama0-1
85Northwestern0-1
85Akron0-1
85Ball State0-1
85Florida State0-1
85East Carolina0-1
85Toledo0-1
85Ole Miss0-1
85Louisiana0-1
85Coastal Carolina0-1
85South Carolina0-1
85Tennessee0-1
85Virginia Tech0-1
85Arkansas State0-1
85Missouri0-1
85Pittsburgh0-1
85Fresno State0-1
85Houston0-1
85Louisville0-1

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