A few years ago, I thought to myself, "I could do a better job than some of the BCS computers". As I recall, at the time I felt Mizzou was underrated. The BCS rules stated margin of victory cannot be used, so I thought I'd stick to that. I put together a convergence algorithm, in which I initially rank the teams by record (so all the undefeated teams start tied at #1), then calculate each team's strength of schedule based on the current rankings of its opponents, and re-sort based on that strength. I run through this process until 2 consecutive iterations give the same result, or there is a loop. So, if iteration 10,002 gives the same rankings as iteration 10,000, then each subsequent iteration would fluctuate between the rankings in 10,000 and 10,001. I average those rankings to come up with the final rankings. It is still possible - but generally unlikely - that teams can tie for a final ranking. Now that the BCS is dead, I'll just consider these rankings my advice on #1 to #4 to the College Football Playoff committee.
Due to most teams playing other teams in lower divisions at times, and a lack of desire on my part to delve so deeply that I have to track down NAIA schedules, I've decided to count all games listed on ESPN's college football site, which includes all FBS, FCS, and Division II and III schedules, and any of their lower-tier opponents, but only when those opponents play at least a Division III team. (i.e., an NAIA team will be listed when they play against a Div III team, but the rest of their games won't be listed, resulting in a lot of 0-1 teams mixed into my system). I then filter the final results to only the FBS schools.
In the past, in week 1, there were only 2 possible situations for a team. First is to be 1-0, having defeated an 0-1 team. Second is, unsurprisingly, to be a 0-1 team, having lost to a 1-0 team. For this reason, in week 1, all 1-0 teams will be tied for #1, and the rest tied at N+1, where N is the number of #1 teams. Did your team choose to beat up on an FCS (formerly known as Division 1-AA) team? Congrats, you're #1 this week! However, since 2016 we seem to be in the era of the pre-Week-1 game, which means a 2-0, 0-2, and/or 1-1 team might be in the mix. Also, some teams may not play in Week 1, and you don't get a ranking until you play, thus the bottom of the chart may not be the full number of teams in FBS.
I listed some caveats at the end there, but despite 4 teams playing over a week ago, all the FBS teams have played exactly 1 game after week 1. Last year had 129 teams, with Liberty in the midst of transitioning to full eligibility. They are there now, and we've got 130 teams. I think some rules may have changed this year, though I haven't been able to find confirmation, because the only Division II or III games were ones against FCS teams, which was only 8 total games, so they are mostly all starting next week.
Onto the fairly pointless rankings of Week 1. I want to point out that the ordering here is not significant; Florida is exactly tied with all 82 other #1 teams. Air Force is lowest ranked 1-0 team at #84 because they beat Samford, one of the two teams that has actually played 2 games, and happens to be 0-2.
1 | Florida | 1-0 |
1 | Hawai'i | 1-0 |
1 | Clemson | 1-0 |
1 | Texas A&M | 1-0 |
1 | Utah | 1-0 |
1 | UCF | 1-0 |
1 | Cincinnati | 1-0 |
1 | UConn | 1-0 |
1 | Bowling Green | 1-0 |
1 | Buffalo | 1-0 |
1 | Charlotte | 1-0 |
1 | Tulane | 1-0 |
1 | UAB | 1-0 |
1 | Central Michigan | 1-0 |
1 | Minnesota | 1-0 |
1 | Arizona State | 1-0 |
1 | San Jose State | 1-0 |
1 | Michigan State | 1-0 |
1 | Wisconsin | 1-0 |
1 | Army | 1-0 |
1 | Rutgers | 1-0 |
1 | Wake Forest | 1-0 |
1 | Nevada | 1-0 |
1 | Colorado | 1-0 |
1 | Oklahoma State | 1-0 |
1 | Alabama | 1-0 |
1 | Georgia | 1-0 |
1 | Ohio State | 1-0 |
1 | LSU | 1-0 |
1 | Michigan | 1-0 |
1 | Texas | 1-0 |
1 | Auburn | 1-0 |
1 | Washington | 1-0 |
1 | Penn State | 1-0 |
1 | Iowa | 1-0 |
1 | Iowa State | 1-0 |
1 | Syracuse | 1-0 |
1 | Washington State | 1-0 |
1 | Nebraska | 1-0 |
1 | Stanford | 1-0 |
1 | Illinois | 1-0 |
1 | Indiana | 1-0 |
1 | Boise State | 1-0 |
1 | NC State | 1-0 |
1 | Kansas | 1-0 |
1 | Kentucky | 1-0 |
1 | Memphis | 1-0 |
1 | Mississippi State | 1-0 |
1 | Maryland | 1-0 |
1 | West Virginia | 1-0 |
1 | Ohio | 1-0 |
1 | Temple | 1-0 |
1 | Navy | 1-0 |
1 | Eastern Michigan | 1-0 |
1 | North Carolina | 1-0 |
1 | Georgia State | 1-0 |
1 | Appalachian State | 1-0 |
1 | Arkansas | 1-0 |
1 | Texas Tech | 1-0 |
1 | Boston College | 1-0 |
1 | New Mexico | 1-0 |
1 | UTSA | 1-0 |
1 | Troy | 1-0 |
1 | California | 1-0 |
1 | Marshall | 1-0 |
1 | Old Dominion | 1-0 |
1 | Southern Mississippi | 1-0 |
1 | Northern Illinois | 1-0 |
1 | Western Michigan | 1-0 |
1 | SMU | 1-0 |
1 | Kansas State | 1-0 |
1 | Baylor | 1-0 |
1 | Wyoming | 1-0 |
1 | Virginia | 1-0 |
1 | North Texas | 1-0 |
1 | UTEP | 1-0 |
1 | TCU | 1-0 |
1 | UL Monroe | 1-0 |
1 | San Diego State | 1-0 |
1 | UNLV | 1-0 |
1 | USC | 1-0 |
1 | Oklahoma | 1-0 |
1 | Notre Dame | 1-0 |
84 | Air Force | 1-0 |
85 | Miami | 0-1 |
85 | Arizona | 0-1 |
85 | Georgia Tech | 0-1 |
85 | Texas State | 0-1 |
85 | BYU | 0-1 |
85 | UCLA | 0-1 |
85 | Western Kentucky | 0-1 |
85 | Florida International | 0-1 |
85 | Kent State | 0-1 |
85 | Tulsa | 0-1 |
85 | South Florida | 0-1 |
85 | Rice | 0-1 |
85 | UMass | 0-1 |
85 | Utah State | 0-1 |
85 | Purdue | 0-1 |
85 | Colorado State | 0-1 |
85 | Oregon State | 0-1 |
85 | Duke | 0-1 |
85 | Vanderbilt | 0-1 |
85 | Florida Atlantic | 0-1 |
85 | Georgia Southern | 0-1 |
85 | Middle Tennessee | 0-1 |
85 | Louisiana Tech | 0-1 |
85 | Oregon | 0-1 |
85 | Miami (OH) | 0-1 |
85 | Liberty | 0-1 |
85 | New Mexico State | 0-1 |
85 | South Alabama | 0-1 |
85 | Northwestern | 0-1 |
85 | Akron | 0-1 |
85 | Ball State | 0-1 |
85 | Florida State | 0-1 |
85 | East Carolina | 0-1 |
85 | Toledo | 0-1 |
85 | Ole Miss | 0-1 |
85 | Louisiana | 0-1 |
85 | Coastal Carolina | 0-1 |
85 | South Carolina | 0-1 |
85 | Tennessee | 0-1 |
85 | Virginia Tech | 0-1 |
85 | Arkansas State | 0-1 |
85 | Missouri | 0-1 |
85 | Pittsburgh | 0-1 |
85 | Fresno State | 0-1 |
85 | Houston | 0-1 |
85 | Louisville | 0-1 |
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