Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 5, Sunday

New England over San Francisco

Dallas lost a home game against Green Bay to fall to 3-2, and out of the NFC lead. San Francisco is now in control at 3-0, though they still have a game to play Monday night. Should they lose, Green Bay may well be the NFC leader tomorrow. New England stomped on Washington and is up over 34% to win, which feels like a pretty high number this early. Which reminds me that I used to track the first team to certain chances of making the playoffs or winning the Super Bowl, so I've added that starting with this post. Unsurprisingly, New England appears in every position, including this week's "First team to 20% chance of Superbowl win".

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	5-0	0.653	82.25	97.96	89.71	55.81	34.46	20.93
SF	3-0	0.565	51.37	71.91	55.93	29.37	15.27	7.41
KC	4-1	0.560	65.41	76.52	56.58	28.66	13.46	6.89
GB	4-1	0.555	47.64	68.34	50.53	25.86	13.20	6.27
BAL	3-2	0.571	60.10	69.27	45.70	23.31	11.35	5.94
BUF	4-1	0.556	17.67	81.40	50.18	23.50	11.49	5.84
DAL	3-2	0.579	51.70	59.05	38.63	20.83	11.19	5.59
MIN	3-2	0.588	21.48	47.18	32.28	17.67	9.65	4.90
PHI	3-2	0.554	41.61	50.86	32.44	16.60	8.46	4.00
SEA	4-1	0.528	32.54	54.66	36.44	17.54	8.41	3.77
HOU	3-2	0.540	36.90	51.79	33.70	15.91	7.21	3.54
CAR	3-2	0.542	35.96	47.46	30.94	15.32	7.54	3.49
NO	4-1	0.498	49.33	61.14	40.46	18.11	8.06	3.38
CHI	3-2	0.552	17.09	39.12	25.31	12.83	6.49	3.06
TEN	2-3	0.557	18.08	31.30	19.56	9.39	4.44	2.26
LAR	3-2	0.520	14.87	35.12	21.55	10.21	4.82	2.12
IND	3-2	0.496	31.15	44.19	26.23	11.19	4.57	2.05
CLE	2-2	0.496	32.86	42.99	23.61	10.10	4.16	1.86
DET	2-1-1	0.504	13.78	28.81	17.41	7.98	3.65	1.55
LAC	2-3	0.521	14.19	25.89	14.70	6.55	2.87	1.36
OAK	3-2	0.460	17.47	34.67	18.57	7.20	2.71	1.12
JAC	2-3	0.486	13.87	24.74	12.96	5.28	2.13	0.93
TB	2-3	0.498	12.49	18.92	10.11	4.54	2.03	0.85
NYG	2-3	0.444	6.59	10.48	4.93	1.98	0.79	0.29
PIT	1-4	0.449	5.93	9.62	4.30	1.60	0.60	0.24
DEN	1-4	0.463	2.92	5.88	2.82	1.08	0.42	0.17
ARI	1-3-1	0.430	1.22	3.60	1.64	0.63	0.24	0.09
ATL	1-4	0.417	2.23	3.17	1.36	0.50	0.18	0.06
CIN	0-5	0.397	1.11	1.53	0.57	0.18	0.06	0.02
NYJ	0-4	0.389	0.03	1.27	0.46	0.14	0.05	0.02
MIA	0-4	0.376	0.05	0.99	0.35	0.10	0.03	0.01
WAS	0-5	0.376	0.10	0.17	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)



[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas