2019-11-15

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 11, Thursday

New England over San Francisco

Cleveland beat Pittsburgh, and earned the longest suspension for in-game antics in history, so it was kind of an up and down day for them. That knocked Pittsburgh out of playoff position, although I still give them a 37% chance of clawing their way back in. The biggest winner was Baltimore, who is now 95.1% likely to win the AFC North, up from 88.5%, while Pittsburgh fell from 11% to 3.3%. New England also crossed the 99.95% mark due to a weakened field, which rounds to 100.0 in my table here. I'll continue to report when they add more nines to their actual number, and that 100.0 will become a "+" if or when they actually clinch.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE8-10.75597.6100.098.470.646.429.0
SF8-10.71979.798.590.258.136.719.9
BAL7-20.66895.197.787.753.325.013.1
MIN7-30.65529.886.760.532.616.87.9
GB8-20.59069.594.474.735.915.46.2
DAL5-40.64766.368.538.319.610.04.6
HOU6-30.58960.178.853.422.69.04.0
NO7-20.54775.682.952.421.88.53.1
KC6-40.57964.470.742.016.56.62.8
SEA8-20.53719.579.043.716.76.72.4
BUF6-30.5612.475.739.313.85.52.3
PHI5-40.52133.739.517.56.72.60.9
IND5-40.50226.038.818.65.91.90.7
PIT5-50.4953.337.016.75.01.70.6
LAR5-40.5690.815.27.73.21.40.5
CAR5-40.49423.428.612.14.31.50.5
TEN5-50.5149.921.210.33.31.10.4
OAK5-40.44126.640.317.04.51.30.4
LAC4-60.5307.89.64.71.50.60.2
JAC4-50.4704.115.66.51.80.60.2
CHI4-50.5130.74.52.10.80.30.1
CLE4-60.4221.612.04.51.10.30.1
DEN3-60.4451.32.51.00.30.10.0
TB3-60.4710.91.10.40.10.00.0
DET3-5-10.4630.10.90.40.10.00.0
ATL2-70.3800.10.10.00.00.00.0
ARI3-6-10.3940.00.00.00.00.00.0
NYG2-80.3490.00.00.00.00.00.0
NYJ2-70.2980.00.00.00.00.00.0
MIA2-70.2650.00.00.00.00.00.0
WAS1-80.2800.00.00.00.00.00.0
CIN0-90.292-0.00.00.00.00.0

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco

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