Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 11, Thursday

New England over San Francisco

Cleveland beat Pittsburgh, and earned the longest suspension for in-game antics in history, so it was kind of an up and down day for them. That knocked Pittsburgh out of playoff position, although I still give them a 37% chance of clawing their way back in. The biggest winner was Baltimore, who is now 95.1% likely to win the AFC North, up from 88.5%, while Pittsburgh fell from 11% to 3.3%. New England also crossed the 99.95% mark due to a weakened field, which rounds to 100.0 in my table here. I'll continue to report when they add more nines to their actual number, and that 100.0 will become a "+" if or when they actually clinch.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	8-1	0.755	97.6	100.0	98.4	70.6	46.4	29.0
SF	8-1	0.719	79.7	98.5	90.2	58.1	36.7	19.9
BAL	7-2	0.668	95.1	97.7	87.7	53.3	25.0	13.1
MIN	7-3	0.655	29.8	86.7	60.5	32.6	16.8	7.9
GB	8-2	0.590	69.5	94.4	74.7	35.9	15.4	6.2
DAL	5-4	0.647	66.3	68.5	38.3	19.6	10.0	4.6
HOU	6-3	0.589	60.1	78.8	53.4	22.6	9.0	4.0
NO	7-2	0.547	75.6	82.9	52.4	21.8	8.5	3.1
KC	6-4	0.579	64.4	70.7	42.0	16.5	6.6	2.8
SEA	8-2	0.537	19.5	79.0	43.7	16.7	6.7	2.4
BUF	6-3	0.561	2.4	75.7	39.3	13.8	5.5	2.3
PHI	5-4	0.521	33.7	39.5	17.5	6.7	2.6	0.9
IND	5-4	0.502	26.0	38.8	18.6	5.9	1.9	0.7
PIT	5-5	0.495	3.3	37.0	16.7	5.0	1.7	0.6
LAR	5-4	0.569	0.8	15.2	7.7	3.2	1.4	0.5
CAR	5-4	0.494	23.4	28.6	12.1	4.3	1.5	0.5
TEN	5-5	0.514	9.9	21.2	10.3	3.3	1.1	0.4
OAK	5-4	0.441	26.6	40.3	17.0	4.5	1.3	0.4
LAC	4-6	0.530	7.8	9.6	4.7	1.5	0.6	0.2
JAC	4-5	0.470	4.1	15.6	6.5	1.8	0.6	0.2
CHI	4-5	0.513	0.7	4.5	2.1	0.8	0.3	0.1
CLE	4-6	0.422	1.6	12.0	4.5	1.1	0.3	0.1
DEN	3-6	0.445	1.3	2.5	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0
TB	3-6	0.471	0.9	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
DET	3-5-1	0.463	0.1	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
ATL	2-7	0.380	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	3-6-1	0.394	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.349	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	2-7	0.298	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
MIA	2-7	0.265	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
WAS	1-8	0.280	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CIN	0-9	0.292	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco