New England had a bye this week, while San Francisco plays Monday, so nothing much interesting happened at the top. At the bottom, we've got our first elimination. Cincinnati is 0-9 and at best could tie Baltimore at 7-9, though they've already lost 2 games to them and would lose the head to head tiebreaker.
I've tried to put together a scenario with 3 or 4 teams tied at 7-9 that allows Cincinnati to win the division, but haven't found one. Forcing Baltimore and Cincinnati to 7-9 would make Cleveland 2-0 against Baltimore and 0-2 against Cincinnati, and all 3 teams would be .500 against each other, which is the first tiebreaker in a 3 or 4 team setup. Pittsburgh would be 1-1 against each team, so all 3 would also tie at .500 head to head. Since we're trying to find a situation where Cincinnati wins, we don't want Cleveland or Pittsburgh to be above or below them in any tiebreaker, or else it falls to the 2-team tiebreaker. So Cleveland has to split with Pittsburgh, and the whole division goes 3-3 against divisional opponents. That brings Pittsburgh to their 7th win, and they must lose the rest. That also give Cleveland 9 losses, so they must win the rest.
That brings us to common games, and while I didn't dig into all of them, Cincinnati has already lost to all 4 NFC West opponents and one AFC East opponent, and I believe there are 8 common games when talking about division rivals and ignoring divisional games which are already even once you're considering common games. Baltimore has already won 4 common games, 2 against the NFC West and 2 against the AFC East. So Cincinnati will fall out of the tiebreaker at that step.
Also, thanks to this exercise I found another bug in my code. This only happened when there were 4 teams tied for a division and they were also all 3-3 within the division, so a rare case to say the least.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 8-1 | 0.755 | 97.7 | 99.9 | 98.3 | 70.0 | 46.1 | 28.9 |
| SF | 8-0 | 0.712 | 91.6 | 99.4 | 95.1 | 60.4 | 37.7 | 20.1 |
| BAL | 7-2 | 0.668 | 88.6 | 97.0 | 86.0 | 51.8 | 24.4 | 12.8 |
| MIN | 7-3 | 0.655 | 29.7 | 88.1 | 61.1 | 32.8 | 17.0 | 8.0 |
| GB | 8-2 | 0.590 | 69.5 | 95.6 | 75.3 | 36.4 | 15.5 | 6.3 |
| DAL | 5-4 | 0.647 | 66.2 | 69.7 | 39.5 | 20.0 | 10.2 | 4.7 |
| HOU | 6-3 | 0.589 | 60.1 | 76.7 | 51.2 | 21.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 |
| NO | 7-2 | 0.547 | 75.7 | 84.8 | 52.9 | 22.1 | 8.6 | 3.1 |
| KC | 6-4 | 0.579 | 64.4 | 69.7 | 40.4 | 16.0 | 6.4 | 2.7 |
| BUF | 6-3 | 0.561 | 2.3 | 72.8 | 37.8 | 13.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 |
| SEA | 7-2 | 0.531 | 7.9 | 62.2 | 31.0 | 11.5 | 4.6 | 1.6 |
| PIT | 5-4 | 0.527 | 10.9 | 61.6 | 32.2 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 |
| PHI | 5-4 | 0.521 | 33.8 | 41.3 | 18.4 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| LAR | 5-4 | 0.569 | 0.5 | 20.1 | 10.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| IND | 5-4 | 0.502 | 26.0 | 36.3 | 17.1 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| CAR | 5-4 | 0.494 | 23.4 | 30.5 | 13.0 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| OAK | 5-4 | 0.441 | 26.5 | 38.4 | 15.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| TEN | 5-5 | 0.514 | 9.9 | 18.1 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| LAC | 4-6 | 0.530 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| JAC | 4-5 | 0.470 | 4.1 | 14.0 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| CHI | 4-5 | 0.513 | 0.7 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| CLE | 3-6 | 0.397 | 0.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| DEN | 3-6 | 0.445 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| TB | 3-6 | 0.471 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| DET | 3-5-1 | 0.463 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ARI | 3-6-1 | 0.394 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ATL | 2-7 | 0.380 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NYG | 2-8 | 0.349 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NYJ | 2-7 | 0.298 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| MIA | 2-7 | 0.265 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| WAS | 1-8 | 0.280 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| CIN | 0-9 | 0.292 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
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