New England won again, but still hasn't quite clinched the playoffs. Out of the simulations I ran, they made it in 99.988% though, so they're a pretty safe bet. They're also back over the 30% mark to win it all, which as I mentioned earlier, no team did last year during the regular season. San Francisco is also 9-1, but doesn't quite have the point differential advantage of New England.
Down in the dregs, the dominoes are starting to fall. Arizona and Miami join Cincinnati in being eliminated from their respective divisions, and the New York Jets appear to as well, but I'll want to work through the potential tiebreakers to verify that. At 0-10, Cincinnati is also eliminated from the playoffs. I also never hit a situation where Washington won the title, though obviously it's possible since I had at least a few times when they made the playoffs, so that blank is not technically accurate.
Let's work through the Jets possibilities. If they just tie New England for the division at 9-7, they can't win because New England swept them head to head. So we'll need a 3rd team to interfere, namely Buffalo (Miami has already lost over 7 games). Buffalo would be 8-4 counting a future win against New England and loss to the Jets, so they'll have to win one of their other games, and it turns out it doesn't matter which one. The first tiebreaker is head to head among all 3 teams, and New York will be a combined 1-3, while Buffalo is 2-2, and New England is 3-1.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 9-1 | 0.780 | 98.4 | 100.0 | 99.3 | 73.9 | 47.8 | 30.7 |
| SF | 9-1 | 0.733 | 82.2 | 99.0 | 90.7 | 58.5 | 37.1 | 19.2 |
| BAL | 8-2 | 0.712 | 98.1 | 99.5 | 95.9 | 64.1 | 30.7 | 17.1 |
| MIN | 8-3 | 0.662 | 35.2 | 91.3 | 63.1 | 33.6 | 17.0 | 7.4 |
| DAL | 6-4 | 0.658 | 78.0 | 79.7 | 44.4 | 22.5 | 11.4 | 4.9 |
| GB | 8-2 | 0.590 | 64.7 | 94.1 | 69.6 | 31.8 | 13.1 | 4.8 |
| NO | 8-2 | 0.581 | 94.5 | 95.8 | 65.6 | 29.0 | 11.7 | 4.2 |
| BUF | 7-3 | 0.597 | 1.6 | 82.7 | 46.5 | 15.9 | 6.3 | 2.8 |
| KC | 6-4 | 0.579 | 59.7 | 66.7 | 37.9 | 12.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 |
| SEA | 8-2 | 0.537 | 16.8 | 81.9 | 41.4 | 15.2 | 5.8 | 1.9 |
| IND | 6-4 | 0.545 | 56.3 | 66.2 | 34.8 | 10.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 |
| HOU | 6-4 | 0.525 | 32.4 | 56.2 | 28.3 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| LAR | 6-4 | 0.593 | 0.9 | 22.5 | 11.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| PHI | 5-5 | 0.508 | 22.0 | 27.5 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| PIT | 5-5 | 0.495 | 1.3 | 32.9 | 15.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| OAK | 6-4 | 0.451 | 32.8 | 48.9 | 20.9 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| TEN | 5-5 | 0.514 | 10.4 | 22.7 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| LAC | 4-6 | 0.530 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| CLE | 4-6 | 0.422 | 0.6 | 11.0 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| CAR | 5-5 | 0.445 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| JAC | 4-6 | 0.426 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| CHI | 4-6 | 0.486 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| DEN | 3-7 | 0.438 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| DET | 3-6-1 | 0.450 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ATL | 3-7 | 0.420 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| TB | 3-7 | 0.444 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NYJ | 3-7 | 0.320 | - | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NYG | 2-8 | 0.349 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ARI | 3-7-1 | 0.379 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| MIA | 2-8 | 0.242 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| CIN | 0-10 | 0.270 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| WAS | 1-9 | 0.255 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)
[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
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