Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 9, Sunday

New England over San Francisco

New England actually lost a game, and Miami actually won. That's the exact opposite of what I considered to be practically a given before Sunday. New England is still in control in the AFC of course, but they did dip down below a 30% chance of another Super Bowl title. We'll have to wait until at least week 10 for some eliminations to start now, because Monday night's participants Dallas and the New York Giants are only 2.5 games apart in a very weak NFC East.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	8-1	0.755	93.54	99.90	97.01	68.80	47.25	29.87
SF	8-0	0.712	91.31	99.28	94.57	60.60	38.37	20.99
BAL	6-2	0.621	87.02	93.35	73.53	39.28	16.85	8.10
MIN	6-3	0.648	30.40	73.54	48.29	25.36	13.07	6.24
NO	7-1	0.580	83.27	93.12	73.40	34.85	14.67	6.00
GB	7-2	0.573	67.74	86.15	58.51	27.07	11.33	4.56
HOU	6-3	0.589	54.28	77.14	52.05	23.49	9.62	4.31
DAL	4-3	0.623	65.73	69.06	39.37	19.28	9.39	4.24
KC	6-3	0.586	74.82	79.67	51.25	23.21	9.38	4.17
BUF	6-2	0.568	6.46	85.65	46.03	17.63	7.42	3.17
SEA	7-2	0.531	7.33	58.86	28.89	10.90	4.41	1.61
IND	5-3	0.510	37.59	55.75	29.90	10.93	3.69	1.38
LAR	5-3	0.575	1.36	34.46	17.28	7.15	3.23	1.30
PIT	4-4	0.515	12.36	44.30	22.19	7.78	2.78	1.05
PHI	5-4	0.521	33.08	40.08	17.96	6.86	2.65	0.94
CAR	5-3	0.509	16.58	36.04	17.98	6.72	2.46	0.85
LAC	4-5	0.536	13.67	18.42	8.87	3.24	1.22	0.48
TEN	4-5	0.508	4.61	9.85	4.68	1.55	0.55	0.20
OAK	4-4	0.437	10.61	19.92	8.06	2.28	0.66	0.20
JAC	4-5	0.470	3.52	12.40	5.10	1.47	0.48	0.16
DET	3-4-1	0.477	1.15	4.31	1.79	0.59	0.21	0.07
CHI	3-5	0.495	0.71	2.92	1.23	0.42	0.16	0.05
DEN	3-6	0.445	0.90	1.80	0.70	0.19	0.06	0.02
CLE	2-6	0.395	0.61	1.82	0.62	0.14	0.04	0.01
NYG	2-6	0.388	1.19	1.33	0.42	0.11	0.03	0.01
TB	2-6	0.466	0.14	0.45	0.17	0.05	0.02	0.01
ARI	3-5-1	0.399	0.00	0.38	0.12	0.03	0.01	0.00
ATL	1-7	0.362	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CIN	0-8	0.336	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NYJ	1-7	0.294	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MIA	1-7	0.281	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
WAS	1-8	0.280	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco