Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 9, Final

New England over San Francisco

Dallas and New York didn't disrupt things much, as was expected. Dallas went from 66% to 75% likely to win their division, and New York dropped from 1% to almost 0%. Philadelphia dropped from 33% to 25% to compensate for the rest of the difference.

You might notice the Jets with no chance of winning their division in the table below. I've double checked that that's not the case, it just never happened in my 2 billion simulations, so it's looking pretty bleak for them.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	8-1	0.755	93.54	99.90	96.97	68.77	47.23	29.68
SF	8-0	0.712	91.34	99.27	94.30	59.72	37.41	20.47
BAL	6-2	0.621	87.02	93.36	73.58	39.30	16.86	8.04
DAL	5-3	0.651	75.03	78.72	47.90	25.03	12.89	6.19
MIN	6-3	0.648	29.37	72.72	46.65	24.24	12.39	5.91
NO	7-1	0.580	83.29	93.13	72.93	34.02	14.20	5.81
GB	7-2	0.573	68.84	86.46	58.42	26.63	11.04	4.44
HOU	6-3	0.589	54.29	77.20	52.09	23.51	9.63	4.28
KC	6-3	0.586	74.82	79.68	51.28	23.22	9.39	4.14
BUF	6-2	0.568	6.46	85.32	45.85	17.56	7.40	3.13
SEA	7-2	0.531	7.34	58.23	27.72	10.41	4.17	1.52
IND	5-3	0.510	37.59	55.80	29.93	10.93	3.70	1.36
LAR	5-3	0.575	1.32	33.44	16.30	6.72	3.00	1.21
PIT	4-4	0.515	12.36	44.38	22.22	7.80	2.78	1.04
CAR	5-3	0.509	16.56	35.77	17.40	6.41	2.32	0.80
PHI	5-4	0.521	24.88	34.45	15.26	5.79	2.22	0.79
LAC	4-5	0.536	13.67	18.44	8.88	3.25	1.22	0.48
TEN	4-5	0.508	4.61	9.86	4.69	1.56	0.55	0.20
OAK	4-4	0.437	10.61	19.95	8.07	2.29	0.66	0.20
JAC	4-5	0.470	3.52	12.45	5.12	1.48	0.49	0.16
DET	3-4-1	0.477	1.09	4.06	1.65	0.54	0.19	0.06
CHI	3-5	0.495	0.70	2.82	1.17	0.40	0.15	0.05
DEN	3-6	0.445	0.90	1.81	0.70	0.19	0.06	0.02
CLE	2-6	0.395	0.61	1.83	0.62	0.15	0.04	0.01
TB	2-6	0.466	0.14	0.44	0.17	0.05	0.02	0.01
ARI	3-5-1	0.399	0.00	0.37	0.11	0.03	0.01	0.00
NYG	2-7	0.359	0.09	0.13	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
ATL	1-7	0.362	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CIN	0-8	0.336	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NYJ	1-7	0.294	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MIA	1-7	0.281	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
WAS	1-8	0.280	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco