Baltimore absolutely dominated the Rams on Monday night, nearly assuring themselves the AFC North (99%) and knocking the Rams out of the NFC West (<0.1%). Every team has played 11 games and had one bye now, so we've got 5 weeks of the full slate of 16 games. Of course there will be 3 this Thursday for Thanksgiving, with Dallas and Detroit hosting, as is tradition, and one more random divisional matchup, New Orleans at Atlanta in this case, which is a rematch from last Thanksgiving.
Also, Miami is not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, just very unlikely to make it. If I rerun the simulations with them winning the rest of their games, then do the typical things I do to try to force them into a spot, they eventually make it. Those include forcing all AFC-NFC games to go for the NFC to weaken the field, and then having all teams that have clinched records worse or better than them win the rest of their games, and then repeating that process if any new teams clinched worse records. For example, if Miami wins the rest to finish 7-9, Cincinnati can't possibly catch them, so I know I can safely let them win any game and they won't beat 5-11. Likewise, New England, Baltimore, and Buffalo can win any number of the rest of their games, too, because they already all have at least 8 wins. Anyway, once I do enough of that, I get Miami with a small chance of making the playoffs, so they aren't officially out yet.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 10-1 | 0.804 | 99.2 | 100.0 | 99.7 | 74.8 | 47.0 | 30.3 |
| SF | 10-1 | 0.770 | 84.1 | 99.9 | 94.1 | 65.1 | 44.6 | 23.2 |
| BAL | 9-2 | 0.756 | 99.0 | 99.8 | 97.7 | 67.9 | 33.7 | 19.6 |
| MIN | 8-3 | 0.662 | 48.1 | 94.9 | 68.4 | 35.5 | 16.8 | 6.6 |
| DAL | 6-5 | 0.660 | 81.9 | 82.7 | 46.2 | 22.4 | 11.0 | 4.3 |
| NO | 9-2 | 0.584 | 99.3 | 99.5 | 76.1 | 35.3 | 12.9 | 4.1 |
| BUF | 8-3 | 0.639 | 0.8 | 91.9 | 53.8 | 18.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 |
| SEA | 9-2 | 0.553 | 15.9 | 96.5 | 50.1 | 17.8 | 6.9 | 2.0 |
| KC | 7-4 | 0.592 | 86.1 | 88.4 | 47.6 | 14.7 | 5.0 | 2.0 |
| GB | 8-3 | 0.533 | 51.7 | 91.9 | 51.3 | 19.7 | 6.5 | 1.8 |
| HOU | 7-4 | 0.532 | 50.6 | 68.7 | 33.2 | 8.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| TEN | 6-5 | 0.561 | 22.1 | 38.1 | 19.7 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| IND | 6-5 | 0.539 | 27.2 | 40.4 | 19.1 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| PIT | 6-5 | 0.510 | 0.7 | 34.2 | 15.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| PHI | 5-6 | 0.492 | 18.1 | 19.2 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| LAR | 6-5 | 0.512 | 0.0 | 11.7 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| CLE | 5-6 | 0.460 | 0.3 | 16.1 | 6.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| OAK | 6-5 | 0.391 | 12.9 | 20.3 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| CHI | 5-6 | 0.500 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| LAC | 4-7 | 0.514 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| CAR | 5-6 | 0.441 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| JAC | 4-7 | 0.385 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| DEN | 3-8 | 0.394 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| TB | 4-7 | 0.464 | - | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NYJ | 4-7 | 0.371 | - | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| DET | 3-7-1 | 0.443 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ARI | 3-7-1 | 0.380 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ATL | 3-8 | 0.398 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NYG | 2-9 | 0.335 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| WAS | 2-9 | 0.249 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| CIN | 0-11 | 0.250 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| MIA | 2-9 | 0.222 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)
[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
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