Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 9, Thursday

New England over San Francisco

San Francisco caught up to New England in record, though not quite in strength, at 8-0. Those two make up the most likely Super Bowl matchup by far at this point, at a little more than 2 in 11 chances, not quite 1 in 5. We're going to start having eliminations soon. Miami could easily be eliminated from winning the AFC East this week, with a loss and a New England win.

One column I don't generally show here, conference homefield advantage (i.e., the #1 seed), already has a few blank spots. I don't think it's technically impossible, just so unlikely my billions of simulations didn't hit any one of the scenarios on Cincinnati, Washington, Atlanta, or Miami being #1. Just to verify it, I was able to get to a place where 0-8 Cincinnati had a non-zero chance by forcing 21 games to go just the right way, such as New England and Cinncinati both going 8-8 due to a whole lot of blowouts, and dragging down Houston, Kansas City, and Buffalo by giving them big losses against their NFC opponents.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	8-0	0.743	97.72	99.97	98.96	70.59	49.22	30.17
SF	8-0	0.712	93.46	99.31	94.43	59.97	37.37	21.08
MIN	6-2	0.651	29.05	81.90	54.07	28.38	14.58	7.25
GB	7-1	0.598	68.78	91.89	68.18	33.03	14.51	6.44
BAL	5-2	0.596	80.70	86.36	62.44	32.68	13.74	6.19
NO	7-1	0.580	88.66	94.26	70.93	32.61	13.65	5.83
DAL	4-3	0.623	74.74	76.59	42.14	20.16	9.76	4.58
KC	5-3	0.580	76.70	79.48	51.07	24.61	10.11	4.39
IND	5-2	0.515	48.39	69.41	46.62	19.15	6.65	2.47
HOU	5-3	0.544	27.04	55.51	34.82	14.50	5.65	2.26
BUF	5-2	0.530	2.28	78.02	38.51	13.86	5.65	2.19
LAR	5-3	0.575	1.50	35.92	17.72	7.26	3.21	1.35
SEA	6-2	0.522	5.03	47.24	21.73	7.92	3.08	1.15
JAC	4-4	0.522	15.06	34.77	19.33	7.29	2.75	1.04
PIT	3-4	0.511	15.42	33.86	17.94	6.81	2.48	0.92
TEN	4-4	0.534	9.51	24.07	13.48	5.12	2.02	0.79
PHI	4-4	0.506	23.84	28.10	11.68	4.18	1.54	0.55
CAR	4-3	0.491	10.69	22.67	10.06	3.47	1.21	0.42
LAC	3-5	0.500	11.12	12.94	6.22	2.26	0.81	0.29
OAK	3-4	0.425	10.82	16.44	7.02	2.11	0.62	0.18
DET	3-3-1	0.489	1.29	9.97	4.18	1.40	0.50	0.17
CHI	3-4	0.516	0.87	7.66	3.30	1.17	0.45	0.17
CLE	2-5	0.406	3.86	6.99	2.76	0.78	0.22	0.06
TB	2-5	0.475	0.65	2.47	0.95	0.30	0.10	0.03
DEN	2-6	0.431	1.37	2.00	0.80	0.23	0.07	0.02
NYG	2-6	0.389	1.40	1.54	0.47	0.12	0.03	0.01
ARI	3-5-1	0.399	0.00	0.45	0.14	0.03	0.01	0.00
NYJ	1-6	0.312	0.00	0.15	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
CIN	0-8	0.336	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
WAS	1-7	0.309	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
ATL	1-7	0.362	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MIA	0-7	0.296	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco