2019-09-27

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 4, Thursday

New England over Dallas

Green Bay suffered their first loss of the year, as Philadelphia upset them at home. I was kind of curious which result would be worse for Dallas, having Green Bay reach 4-0 while they're only at 3-0, or their division rival Philadelphia getting within 1 win of them. The answer, I suppose, is that the Philadelphia win helped more than it hurt. Dallas's NFC and Super Bowl chances went up just  a little, by 0.1% and 0.06%, respectively. They're about 5% less likely to win the division and 2.5% less to make the playoffs, but that's offset by weaker average opponents. But we're talking very small numbers here, so in the end, nothing really changed.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE3-00.59359.5788.8471.3940.6022.8612.60
DAL3-00.57874.4581.4163.4334.9118.9710.09
KC3-00.55574.1583.8365.6734.4817.559.01
SF3-00.56545.3971.5254.5229.0615.337.96
BAL2-10.56770.1675.9753.1728.2514.827.78
LAR3-00.55541.4969.5252.0327.0613.987.12
BUF3-00.54439.3478.3655.1227.5813.916.97
MIN2-10.56025.0847.3632.8917.208.934.59
GB3-10.53831.8252.7636.1418.068.954.40
HOU2-10.51332.8851.1232.5515.257.073.33
DET2-0-10.51325.0044.7629.5313.976.573.07
CHI2-10.53318.0937.5024.4812.085.942.89
IND2-10.49833.7749.9430.8613.966.252.85
TEN1-20.53417.3634.5521.3110.385.042.48
NO2-10.48234.9339.6321.969.584.181.82
PHI2-20.50918.9830.7417.878.383.931.82
CAR1-20.51725.4230.1316.957.973.751.77
SEA2-10.49511.0926.9715.947.223.271.47
JAC1-20.49515.9929.5316.297.263.241.47
LAC1-20.49115.3629.4616.327.283.221.45
TB1-20.48322.3025.2212.885.612.451.07
CLE1-20.46116.2223.8311.974.992.080.87
ATL1-20.47017.3520.4910.434.421.870.80
OAK1-20.4427.0017.058.303.281.300.52
NYG1-20.4505.1211.795.892.400.990.40
CIN0-30.4477.2711.215.212.090.850.34
PIT0-30.4376.359.904.471.750.690.27
DEN0-30.4523.497.973.861.560.640.26
ARI0-2-10.4592.036.913.511.460.610.25
WAS0-30.4501.453.291.540.630.260.11
NYJ0-30.4240.474.191.780.670.260.10
MIA0-30.4070.624.241.740.620.230.08

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas

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