Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 4, Thursday

New England over Dallas

Green Bay suffered their first loss of the year, as Philadelphia upset them at home. I was kind of curious which result would be worse for Dallas, having Green Bay reach 4-0 while they're only at 3-0, or their division rival Philadelphia getting within 1 win of them. The answer, I suppose, is that the Philadelphia win helped more than it hurt. Dallas's NFC and Super Bowl chances went up just  a little, by 0.1% and 0.06%, respectively. They're about 5% less likely to win the division and 2.5% less to make the playoffs, but that's offset by weaker average opponents. But we're talking very small numbers here, so in the end, nothing really changed.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	3-0	0.593	59.57	88.84	71.39	40.60	22.86	12.60
DAL	3-0	0.578	74.45	81.41	63.43	34.91	18.97	10.09
KC	3-0	0.555	74.15	83.83	65.67	34.48	17.55	9.01
SF	3-0	0.565	45.39	71.52	54.52	29.06	15.33	7.96
BAL	2-1	0.567	70.16	75.97	53.17	28.25	14.82	7.78
LAR	3-0	0.555	41.49	69.52	52.03	27.06	13.98	7.12
BUF	3-0	0.544	39.34	78.36	55.12	27.58	13.91	6.97
MIN	2-1	0.560	25.08	47.36	32.89	17.20	8.93	4.59
GB	3-1	0.538	31.82	52.76	36.14	18.06	8.95	4.40
HOU	2-1	0.513	32.88	51.12	32.55	15.25	7.07	3.33
DET	2-0-1	0.513	25.00	44.76	29.53	13.97	6.57	3.07
CHI	2-1	0.533	18.09	37.50	24.48	12.08	5.94	2.89
IND	2-1	0.498	33.77	49.94	30.86	13.96	6.25	2.85
TEN	1-2	0.534	17.36	34.55	21.31	10.38	5.04	2.48
NO	2-1	0.482	34.93	39.63	21.96	9.58	4.18	1.82
PHI	2-2	0.509	18.98	30.74	17.87	8.38	3.93	1.82
CAR	1-2	0.517	25.42	30.13	16.95	7.97	3.75	1.77
SEA	2-1	0.495	11.09	26.97	15.94	7.22	3.27	1.47
JAC	1-2	0.495	15.99	29.53	16.29	7.26	3.24	1.47
LAC	1-2	0.491	15.36	29.46	16.32	7.28	3.22	1.45
TB	1-2	0.483	22.30	25.22	12.88	5.61	2.45	1.07
CLE	1-2	0.461	16.22	23.83	11.97	4.99	2.08	0.87
ATL	1-2	0.470	17.35	20.49	10.43	4.42	1.87	0.80
OAK	1-2	0.442	7.00	17.05	8.30	3.28	1.30	0.52
NYG	1-2	0.450	5.12	11.79	5.89	2.40	0.99	0.40
CIN	0-3	0.447	7.27	11.21	5.21	2.09	0.85	0.34
PIT	0-3	0.437	6.35	9.90	4.47	1.75	0.69	0.27
DEN	0-3	0.452	3.49	7.97	3.86	1.56	0.64	0.26
ARI	0-2-1	0.459	2.03	6.91	3.51	1.46	0.61	0.25
WAS	0-3	0.450	1.45	3.29	1.54	0.63	0.26	0.11
NYJ	0-3	0.424	0.47	4.19	1.78	0.67	0.26	0.10
MIA	0-3	0.407	0.62	4.24	1.74	0.62	0.23	0.08

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas