2019-12-09

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 14, Sunday

New England over San Francisco

New England lost again, and are now the #2 seed, but thanks to their early season blowouts, I've still got them favored to win the AFC. For now, since they're still pretty likely to get a first round bye, it's really not that big of a drop, they'd just have to travel to Baltimore instead of hosting them in the Conference championship. They're also still not guaranteed a playoff spot, despite reaching 99.9% in week 8.

6 teams were officially eliminated from the playoffs Sunday, the New York Jets, Washington, Jacksonville, Carolina, Tampa, and the LA Chargers. The LA Rams, Denver, and Oakland were eliminated from winning a division, Denver and Oakland obviously because Kansas City clinched the AFC West, while San Francisco put the NFC West out of reach for the Rams, who, at best, could only tie them and Seattle at 11-5, but that would give Seattle the tiebreaker for the division.

5 more teams are 3.6% or below to make the playoffs, Chicago, Indianapolis, Cleveland, Denver, and Oakland. That's 4 of the 5 AFC elimination spots left, so that conference's teams are potentially close to clinched.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE10-30.81797.8100.097.169.941.927.7
BAL11-20.79099.9++99.570.036.923.0
SF11-20.77583.499.994.865.645.722.8
MIN9-40.67527.276.649.324.312.34.7
NO10-30.590++++74.935.713.03.9
KC9-40.660++++61.420.27.93.7
GB10-30.58172.393.062.128.710.43.0
BUF9-40.6482.297.152.717.26.32.9
DAL6-70.63177.377.341.919.08.52.9
TEN8-50.62950.169.436.511.03.91.7
SEA10-30.53716.697.151.517.86.41.7
LAR8-50.602-30.615.45.72.70.8
PIT8-50.5410.159.724.55.71.60.6
HOU8-50.51648.065.925.65.51.40.5
PHI5-70.48022.722.78.92.80.90.2
CHI7-60.5280.52.91.20.40.10.0
IND6-70.5021.93.51.30.30.10.0
CLE6-70.461-3.61.20.20.00.0
DEN5-80.439-0.20.10.00.00.0
OAK6-70.305-0.40.10.00.00.0
LAC5-80.584------
TB6-70.495------
ATL4-90.420------
DET3-9-10.408------
CAR5-80.392------
NYJ5-80.336------
ARI3-9-10.320------
NYG2-100.304------
JAC4-90.290------
CIN1-120.244------
WAS3-100.243------
MIA3-100.212------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over San Francisco

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