Super Bowl LIV Projection, Wildcard Saturday

Baltimore over San Francisco

Based on my system, we had 2 upsets yesterday, as Houston beat Buffalo (35% likely) and Tennessee beat New England (just 22% likely). Houston was the higher seed and had homefield advantage, but using points scored and allowed, they were the underdogs. New England was my AFC favorite for most of the season, but they've been steadily falling off. Everyone's already talking about what Brady's going to do in the offseason, but there are still 10 teams vying to be the champ this year.

Sunday's games!

Minnesota at New Orleans (tossup)
This one's a small rounding error from being perfectly evenly matched. I usually find myself rooting against New Orleans, perhaps dating back to their days in the NFC West with St. Louis, so I'll root for Minnesota in this one.

Seattle at Philadelphia (55%)
I'm not totally sure I believe my system on this one, as Seattle seems like the better team. Still, I'll go with it and root for Philadelphia to beat Seattle, despite my fellow Wilson at QB. Maybe it's more anti-NFC-West bias.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	14-2	0.869	++	++	++	78.8	57.1	40.9
SF	13-3	0.786	++	++	++	68.0	45.5	20.8
KC	12-4	0.758	++	++	++	76.8	29.7	16.3
GB	13-3	0.634	++	++	++	50.6	18.7	5.5
NO	13-3	0.707	++	++	50.0	29.1	13.5	4.9
MIN	10-6	0.707	-	++	50.0	19.8	12.3	4.5
TEN	9-7	0.641	-	++	++	21.2	9.1	3.8
PHI	9-7	0.562	++	++	55.0	18.8	6.2	1.5
HOU	10-6	0.486	++	++	++	23.2	4.0	1.1
SEA	11-5	0.513	-	++	45.0	13.5	3.9	0.8
NE	12-4	0.866	++	++	-	-	-	-
BUF	10-6	0.640	-	++	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 17] Baltimore over San Francisco