Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 7, Final

New England over San Francisco

The highest possible strength for a team that has played 7 games is .71875 (7/16 of the way from .500 to 1.000), if a team allows 0 points. New England is quite close to that at over .714. Their 33-0 win last night helped a lot in offsetting the few points they have allowed this year. At the bottom of the league, the lowest possible strength after 6 games is .3125, and Miami is pushing up to that number too at .322.

I should call out a fix I had to make yesterday, I accidentally gave Baltimore an extra 10 points in their win over Pittsburgh, so the last few posts have had them slightly overrated and Pittsburgh slightly underrated. A few years ago I changed my software to print out the points scored and allowed so I can quickly check them against the advanced standings shown online, but I failed to actually check for the last few weeks. The difference was minimal enough today before and after the fix that I won't bother going back to fix the previous weeks.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	7-0	0.714	89.68	99.85	95.81	64.78	42.69	26.31
SF	6-0	0.663	86.36	95.74	87.03	51.95	30.45	16.24
BAL	5-2	0.596	84.46	88.60	62.70	32.44	14.61	7.13
MIN	5-2	0.627	31.30	74.18	50.05	26.83	14.11	6.99
GB	6-1	0.586	63.32	86.20	64.94	32.36	15.34	6.97
KC	5-2	0.591	81.88	86.44	62.06	31.74	14.09	6.80
DAL	4-3	0.623	83.24	84.18	50.18	26.23	13.73	6.75
BUF	5-1	0.575	10.32	91.73	52.91	22.86	10.62	4.96
NO	6-1	0.535	64.82	82.52	57.16	24.77	10.34	4.19
CAR	4-2	0.560	32.92	53.53	32.67	14.85	6.63	2.84
IND	4-2	0.510	48.50	63.96	39.83	16.01	5.88	2.37
HOU	4-3	0.539	28.68	50.34	30.32	12.59	5.10	2.20
SEA	5-2	0.509	9.63	39.44	19.72	7.85	3.20	1.22
LAR	4-3	0.547	3.39	28.35	14.26	6.17	2.75	1.14
TEN	3-4	0.525	9.44	20.66	11.04	4.23	1.70	0.71
JAC	3-4	0.491	13.39	26.35	12.97	4.62	1.69	0.65
CHI	3-3	0.518	3.80	16.01	7.75	3.18	1.31	0.51
PIT	2-4	0.482	9.05	21.57	10.28	3.64	1.31	0.50
OAK	3-3	0.430	11.31	25.13	11.30	3.55	1.10	0.36
PHI	3-4	0.473	13.53	16.04	6.57	2.42	0.90	0.31
LAC	2-5	0.498	5.16	7.53	3.45	1.28	0.48	0.19
CLE	2-4	0.433	6.44	12.58	5.30	1.68	0.53	0.18
DET	2-3-1	0.480	1.58	7.76	3.43	1.28	0.48	0.17
TB	2-4	0.481	2.19	6.41	2.71	0.99	0.37	0.13
ARI	3-3-1	0.444	0.62	5.66	2.21	0.74	0.26	0.08
DEN	2-5	0.438	1.65	4.23	1.72	0.52	0.17	0.06
NYG	2-5	0.396	3.14	3.77	1.26	0.38	0.11	0.03
NYJ	1-5	0.336	0.00	0.85	0.24	0.05	0.01	0.00
ATL	1-6	0.376	0.07	0.11	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
CIN	0-7	0.364	0.06	0.10	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
WAS	1-6	0.333	0.10	0.11	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
MIA	0-6	0.322	0.00	0.08	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)


[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco