I like watching football, and without a local team I'm no longer time-constrained, I just watch a noon game, a 3pm game, or maybe both. Yesterday happened to be a day I got to watch neither, and one of the approximately 50% of Sundays I don't get to watch the night game either. On those weeks I won't comment on the games themselves, since it feels a little disingenuous to just point out something cool I saw on Deadspin. So instead I just note whatever interesting facts come from the numbers.
I also still manually enter the scores into a file before running my numbers, which is prone to occasional errors. Earlier this year I gave Baltimore an extra 10 points over Pittsburgh, which wasn't terribly consequential. But for Sunday's games, I flipped the San Francisco and Carolina score, saw that New England was the only unbeaten team left in my output file and didn't even go look to see what happened, I just went with it. I owe a big thanks to Josh D. of Royals and Randoms for pointing out my error. Hopefully I would have caught it by Thursday since San Francisco will be playing the only game, but who knows?! Several years ago I put in some error checking that prints out the standings, points scored, and points allowed, but I have to convince myself to actually check it against a reliable source every week for it to work.
With all that said, here are the real numbers from Sunday, with Monday to follow later today, since my current results there are also wrong.
Everything I said about the NFC was wrong, and San Francisco is still in control. The Green Bay - Minnesota ordering is still somewhat interesting, with Green Bay, compared to Minnesota, being weaker, but more likely to make the Super Bowl, BUT less likely to win it. But the two of them combined are less likely to win the NFC than San Francisco.
I'll just copy and the AFC bit, because it still applies:
Of course in the AFC, New England is running away with it. The next best teams are 5-2, 3 wins and 2 losses behind. New England has almost a 1 in 3 shot of winning the Superbowl and we're not quite halfway through the season. For comparison, last year no team broke 29% until the Superbowl matchup was set, at which point someone has to be at least 50%. Also, it took until week 10 for anyone to hit a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs, which New England also did this week.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 8-0 | 0.743 | 97.63 | 99.97 | 98.92 | 70.67 | 49.26 | 30.67 |
| SF | 7-0 | 0.697 | 90.02 | 98.44 | 91.54 | 56.60 | 34.33 | 18.79 |
| MIN | 6-2 | 0.651 | 28.82 | 81.76 | 54.14 | 28.85 | 15.14 | 7.53 |
| GB | 7-1 | 0.598 | 69.03 | 91.94 | 68.80 | 33.49 | 15.15 | 6.72 |
| BAL | 5-2 | 0.596 | 85.42 | 89.16 | 64.64 | 33.94 | 14.25 | 6.56 |
| NO | 7-1 | 0.580 | 88.78 | 94.29 | 71.84 | 33.20 | 14.33 | 6.11 |
| DAL | 4-3 | 0.623 | 75.08 | 76.85 | 42.35 | 20.68 | 10.21 | 4.78 |
| KC | 5-3 | 0.580 | 76.67 | 79.68 | 51.40 | 24.78 | 10.17 | 4.51 |
| IND | 5-2 | 0.515 | 48.43 | 70.51 | 47.35 | 19.39 | 6.74 | 2.57 |
| HOU | 5-3 | 0.544 | 27.02 | 56.92 | 35.62 | 14.78 | 5.77 | 2.36 |
| BUF | 5-2 | 0.530 | 2.37 | 79.36 | 39.20 | 14.11 | 5.75 | 2.28 |
| LAR | 5-3 | 0.575 | 2.60 | 36.57 | 18.32 | 7.80 | 3.49 | 1.47 |
| SEA | 6-2 | 0.522 | 7.33 | 47.78 | 22.49 | 8.50 | 3.35 | 1.25 |
| JAC | 4-4 | 0.522 | 15.06 | 35.75 | 19.84 | 7.45 | 2.82 | 1.09 |
| TEN | 4-4 | 0.534 | 9.50 | 25.24 | 14.11 | 5.32 | 2.11 | 0.84 |
| PHI | 4-4 | 0.506 | 23.52 | 27.63 | 11.46 | 4.21 | 1.59 | 0.57 |
| PIT | 2-4 | 0.482 | 10.29 | 23.27 | 11.41 | 3.97 | 1.36 | 0.48 |
| CAR | 4-3 | 0.491 | 10.58 | 22.41 | 9.97 | 3.52 | 1.26 | 0.43 |
| LAC | 3-5 | 0.500 | 11.15 | 13.27 | 6.39 | 2.32 | 0.83 | 0.31 |
| OAK | 3-4 | 0.425 | 10.81 | 16.89 | 7.21 | 2.16 | 0.63 | 0.19 |
| DET | 3-3-1 | 0.489 | 1.28 | 9.80 | 4.12 | 1.43 | 0.52 | 0.18 |
| CHI | 3-4 | 0.516 | 0.87 | 7.53 | 3.24 | 1.20 | 0.47 | 0.17 |
| CLE | 2-5 | 0.406 | 4.28 | 7.66 | 3.01 | 0.85 | 0.24 | 0.07 |
| TB | 2-5 | 0.475 | 0.63 | 2.40 | 0.93 | 0.30 | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| DEN | 2-6 | 0.431 | 1.37 | 2.08 | 0.83 | 0.24 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| NYG | 2-6 | 0.389 | 1.37 | 1.49 | 0.46 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| ARI | 3-4-1 | 0.404 | 0.04 | 1.08 | 0.34 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| NYJ | 1-6 | 0.312 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| MIA | 0-6 | 0.322 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CIN | 0-8 | 0.336 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| WAS | 1-7 | 0.309 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| ATL | 1-7 | 0.362 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
No comments:
Post a Comment