Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 12, Sunday

New England over San Francisco

It's almost silly how close New England is to clinching a playoff spot while not quite doing it yet. They are over 99.999% likely, or less than 1 in 100,000 not to make it. They're also over the 50% mark to make the Superbowl, so given a choice between New England or the rest of the AFC, I'll take New England now. In the NFC San Francisco had a dominant win and is getting close to New England, but they really ran up the score in the first part of the season to solidify a ridiculously high strength number.

We've got a whole lot of teams on the bring of clinching or elimination, so we should see plenty of those next week. I show Detroit, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay not winning their division this week. Some sources claim it's still mathematically possible for Tampa, but I don't see it. The only way it's possible is if Tampa wins out and New Orleans loses all of their games, so both teams finish 9-7. In a 2-team tie, New Orleans wins because they beat Tampa twice. So, Carolina would need to also finish 9-7. In our constructed Scenario, Carolina is 2-2 against the 2 other teams (1-1 against both), making New Orleans 3-1 and Tampa 1-3. And, there's no way for Atlanta to join the tie, having already lost 8 games.

Detroit is a trickier case. I've been lazily running my simulations without ties, and it'll definitely take one for Detroit to have any chance at the NFC North. If Detroit wins out, they will be 8-7-1. Green Bay and Minnesota both have 8 wins and a game against each other, so that game would have to end in a tie, and all 3 teams could be 8-7-1. That puts us in the same 3 team scenario as above, where the first tiebreaker is head to head, where Detroit would be 1-1 against each team, total 2-2, but Green Bay is 1-0-1 against Minnesota, and would win that tiebreaker. So what do we do? Throw Chicago into the mix? We've already forced them to be 7-7 so they'd have to win and tie against Dallas and Kansas City, but that would mean the first tiebreaker is just the conference record, which Chicago would now win at 4-2.

In short, my hypothesis is that Detroit and Tampa are out. Prove me wrong, please.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	10-1	0.804	99.1	100.0	99.7	74.7	50.5	32.6
SF	10-1	0.770	84.7	99.8	94.2	65.0	44.5	24.0
BAL	8-2	0.712	96.6	99.1	93.8	60.0	26.7	14.0
MIN	8-3	0.662	48.1	91.6	66.1	34.3	16.2	6.7
DAL	6-5	0.660	81.1	81.8	45.7	22.1	10.8	4.5
NO	9-2	0.584	99.3	99.4	75.7	35.1	12.8	4.3
BUF	8-3	0.639	0.9	92.3	53.9	19.4	8.2	3.7
KC	7-4	0.592	86.1	88.3	49.8	17.7	6.2	2.5
SEA	9-2	0.553	14.9	93.7	48.4	17.2	6.6	2.1
GB	8-3	0.533	51.7	88.1	49.8	19.2	6.3	1.9
HOU	7-4	0.532	50.6	68.1	33.7	9.9	2.9	1.0
TEN	6-5	0.561	22.1	37.8	19.8	6.0	2.0	0.7
LAR	6-4	0.592	0.3	22.8	11.3	4.2	1.9	0.6
IND	6-5	0.539	27.2	39.9	19.0	5.4	1.7	0.6
PIT	6-5	0.510	2.1	35.4	16.2	4.0	1.2	0.4
PHI	5-6	0.492	18.9	19.6	7.6	2.5	0.8	0.2
CLE	5-6	0.460	1.4	17.2	6.9	1.4	0.4	0.1
OAK	6-5	0.391	12.9	19.9	6.4	1.1	0.2	0.1
CHI	5-6	0.500	0.3	1.5	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0
LAC	4-7	0.514	0.8	1.3	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
CAR	5-6	0.441	0.7	1.5	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
DEN	3-8	0.394	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
JAC	4-7	0.385	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	4-7	0.371	-	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
TB	4-7	0.464	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	3-7-1	0.443	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	3-7-1	0.380	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-9	0.335	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ATL	3-8	0.398	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
WAS	2-9	0.249	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CIN	0-11	0.250	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	2-9	0.222	-	0.0	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco