2019-12-30

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 17, Final

Baltimore over San Francisco

The regular season is over and the playoffs are set. We had the biggest upset possible, with the best team losing to the worst, so Miami causes New England to play themselves out of a first round bye. Instead, Baltimore and Kansas City get the byes, and Baltimore becomes the new AFC favorite. In the NFC, San Francisco won their matchup against Seattle for the divison, and thus takes the #1 seed and a first round bye, along with Green Bay.

You can tell from the chart who I think will win, but who am I rooting for on Saturday?

Buffalo (65%) at Houston
Buffalo seems fun, let's root for them. I really don't feel a strong pull towards either team in this one. I do appreciate that in the AFC the seeds worked out "correctly", as Buffalo would be behind Houston head to head due to conference record. That's frequently not the case in these matchups of the best wildcard at the worst division winner since 2002.

Tennessee at New England (78%)
Tough call here, as during the Rams' time in St. Louis, these are the two teams they faced in Super Bowls. Since they beat Tennessee, I'm not nearly as bitter about that team I guess. Plus everyone's tired of New England winning all the time. So let's root for another road team.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL14-20.869++++++81.2248.4334.64
NE12-40.866++++78.3552.8129.0520.63
SF13-30.786++++++68.0445.5018.64
KC12-40.758++++++40.3215.518.49
GB13-30.634++++++50.6418.744.73
NO13-30.707++++49.9929.1313.494.28
MIN10-60.708-++50.0119.8312.273.89
BUF10-60.640-++65.2815.924.241.75
PHI9-70.562++++54.9518.826.151.25
TEN9-70.641-++21.654.591.930.80
SEA11-50.513-++45.0513.543.850.67
HOU10-60.486++++34.725.140.850.23
DAL8-80.712------
LAR9-70.559------
TB7-90.515------
LAC5-110.482------
IND7-90.476------
ATL7-90.466------
PIT8-80.465------
CHI8-80.454------
DEN7-90.416------
CLE6-100.383------
ARI5-10-10.353------
DET3-12-10.344------
NYJ7-90.313------
NYG4-120.302------
JAC6-100.302------
OAK7-90.295------
CAR5-110.275------
CIN2-140.227------
MIA5-110.193------
WAS3-130.187------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Final] New England over San Francisco

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