Houston avenged their earlier loss to Indianapolis, and took control of the AFC South. They are now 57.8% likely to win the division, up from 32.4%. Avoiding that head to head sweep gets them past the first tiebreaker if they should wind up tied on top of the division.
Everything else is pretty much status quo, including the oddly specific and consistent fact that I show some non-zero chance of Washington making the NFC title game, but no chance of them making the Superbowl. I'm going to have to investigate and see if I have some weird bug in my code. When I did a test run with them winning all their remaining games 1000-0, they do wind up winning, but maybe there's some weird edge case.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 9-1 | 0.780 | 98.4 | 100.0 | 99.1 | 73.4 | 47.4 | 30.5 |
| SF | 9-1 | 0.733 | 82.2 | 99.0 | 90.7 | 58.5 | 37.1 | 19.2 |
| BAL | 8-2 | 0.712 | 98.1 | 99.5 | 95.0 | 62.8 | 30.1 | 16.8 |
| MIN | 8-3 | 0.662 | 35.5 | 91.4 | 63.2 | 33.7 | 17.0 | 7.5 |
| DAL | 6-4 | 0.658 | 78.0 | 79.7 | 44.4 | 22.5 | 11.4 | 4.9 |
| GB | 8-2 | 0.590 | 64.4 | 94.2 | 69.5 | 31.7 | 13.1 | 4.8 |
| NO | 8-2 | 0.581 | 94.5 | 95.8 | 65.6 | 29.0 | 11.7 | 4.2 |
| KC | 7-4 | 0.592 | 74.4 | 82.3 | 49.4 | 17.8 | 6.7 | 2.9 |
| BUF | 7-3 | 0.597 | 1.6 | 82.5 | 45.4 | 15.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 |
| SEA | 8-2 | 0.537 | 16.8 | 81.8 | 41.4 | 15.2 | 5.8 | 1.9 |
| HOU | 7-4 | 0.532 | 57.8 | 75.2 | 39.0 | 11.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 |
| IND | 6-5 | 0.539 | 28.8 | 43.3 | 21.5 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| LAR | 6-4 | 0.593 | 0.9 | 22.4 | 11.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| PHI | 5-5 | 0.508 | 22.0 | 27.5 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| PIT | 5-5 | 0.495 | 1.3 | 31.4 | 14.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| OAK | 6-4 | 0.451 | 24.8 | 47.3 | 19.7 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| TEN | 5-5 | 0.514 | 12.6 | 22.3 | 10.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| CLE | 4-6 | 0.422 | 0.6 | 10.7 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| CAR | 5-5 | 0.445 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| JAC | 4-6 | 0.426 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| LAC | 4-7 | 0.514 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| CHI | 4-6 | 0.486 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| DEN | 3-7 | 0.438 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| DET | 3-6-1 | 0.450 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ATL | 3-7 | 0.420 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| TB | 3-7 | 0.444 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NYJ | 3-7 | 0.320 | - | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NYG | 2-8 | 0.349 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ARI | 3-7-1 | 0.380 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| MIA | 2-8 | 0.242 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| CIN | 0-10 | 0.270 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| WAS | 1-9 | 0.256 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)
[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
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