Tenets of Wilson: 2019-01

2019-01-21

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Championship Sunday

Los Angeles Rams over New England

Both favorites lost on Sunday, although they were very close matchups, so it's not terribly shocking. In the NFC, we have the LA Rams, who were the NFC Favorite up until the Sunday of week 11, when New Orleans took over with a 48-7 win. In the AFC, Kansas City was the favorite from week 7 onward, but fell to New England, who wasn't the favorite all season long. So we get a rematch of Super Bowl XXXVI, Rams vs Patriots, albeit with a new city for the Rams. I'll be rooting for them to avenge their loss 17 years later. It's pretty amazing that New England has the same Quarterback and Head Coach after all that time. I've got them just slightly favored, but this game is basically going to be a tossup.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	13-3	0.722	++	++	++	++	++	51.70
NE	11-5	0.708	++	++	++	++	++	48.30
CHI	12-4	0.768	++	++	-	-	-	-
NO	13-3	0.745	++	++	++	++	-	-
BAL	10-6	0.714	++	++	-	-	-	-
KC	12-4	0.708	++	++	++	++	-	-
LAC	12-4	0.688	-	++	++	-	-	-
HOU	11-5	0.674	++	++	-	-	-	-
IND	10-6	0.667	-	++	++	-	-	-
SEA	10-6	0.653	-	++	-	-	-	-
PIT	9-6-1	0.627	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	8-7-1	0.541	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	9-7	0.540	-	++	++	-	-	-
DAL	10-6	0.534	++	++	++	-	-	-
TEN	9-7	0.517	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	7-9	0.488	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-9	0.484	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	6-10	0.456	-	-	-	-	-	-
GB	6-9-1	0.454	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	7-8-1	0.434	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	6-10	0.421	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-11	0.418	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	5-11	0.383	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	6-10	0.345	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	4-12	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	7-9	0.323	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	5-11	0.317	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-12	0.300	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	7-9	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	6-10	0.270	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	4-12	0.192	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	3-13	0.128	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)
First to clinch a playoff spot: Los Angeles Rams (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New Orleans (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: New Orleans (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from the Playoffs: San Francisco and Oakland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 17, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Wildcard Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Wildcard Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Divisional Saturday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Divisional Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City

2019-01-14

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Divisional Sunday

New Orleans over Kansas City

This has been a very close year for the teams at the top. No team crossed the 30% mark for Super Bowl winning chances all year, until of course one will cross 50% once the games are over on Sunday. Speaking of even, Kansas City and New England couldn't be much closer. Their strengths, shown as .708 for both in my chart, to more decimal places are .70805 and .70781. Hopefully that means we'll have 2 pretty good and close games. I'd argue that from a pure football perspective, next Sunday might be better than the Super Bowl, having 2 great games instead of just one. But there's not nearly the pomp and circumstance, parties with casual football fans, and old rock bands lip-syncing the halftime shows.

Onto the teams I'll be rooting for to make the Super Bowl:

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans: I'm not sure when I soured on New Orleans, but I just can't root for them. Maybe it's the all-black uniforms. Get some gold or white pants, guys. Of course, they were a division rival of the Rams in St. Louis in the NFC West from 1995-2001, so maybe that's the reason. So I find myself rooting for the Rams yet again.

New England at Kansas City: We always give our local Chiefs fans trouble about how they always fold late in the season or in the playoffs, so it's time they get a chance to get back to the Super Bowl, where they haven't been since Super Bowl IV as an AFL team.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NO	13-3	0.745	++	++	++	++	52.96	28.95
LAR	13-3	0.722	++	++	++	++	47.04	24.32
KC	12-4	0.708	++	++	++	++	50.03	23.39
NE	11-5	0.708	++	++	++	++	49.97	23.35
CHI	12-4	0.768	++	++	-	-	-	-
BAL	10-6	0.714	++	++	-	-	-	-
LAC	12-4	0.688	-	++	++	-	-	-
HOU	11-5	0.674	++	++	-	-	-	-
IND	10-6	0.667	-	++	++	-	-	-
SEA	10-6	0.653	-	++	-	-	-	-
PIT	9-6-1	0.627	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	8-7-1	0.541	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	9-7	0.540	-	++	++	-	-	-
DAL	10-6	0.534	++	++	++	-	-	-
TEN	9-7	0.517	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	7-9	0.488	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-9	0.484	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	6-10	0.456	-	-	-	-	-	-
GB	6-9-1	0.454	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	7-8-1	0.434	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	6-10	0.421	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-11	0.418	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	5-11	0.383	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	6-10	0.345	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	4-12	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	7-9	0.324	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	5-11	0.317	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-12	0.300	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	7-9	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	6-10	0.270	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	4-12	0.192	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	3-13	0.128	-	-	-	-	-	-

2019-01-13

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Divisional Saturday

Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

It's time for my least favorite post of this series ever year, Divisional Saturday. That's because yesterday's winners are practically guaranteed to be the favorites in their conference, because their eventual opponent still has to win one more game. However, this year the favorites are at least actually over 50%. But, if New Orleans wins today, they'll return to being the NFC and overall favorite.

Who am I rooting for on Sunday?

Los Angeles Chargers at New England: I don't like rooting for New England, but a rematch of their Superbowl XXXVI against the Rams, or even Philadelphia last year would be interesting, so why not?

Philadelphia at New Orleans: I've gotta root for Philadelphia and Nick Foles to keep going through the playoffs, no question.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	13-3	0.722	++	++	++	++	53.28	27.82
KC	12-4	0.708	++	++	++	++	51.14	25.01
NO	13-3	0.745	++	++	++	71.33	37.79	20.85
NE	11-5	0.708	++	++	++	52.31	26.14	12.78
LAC	12-4	0.688	-	++	++	47.69	22.73	10.59
PHI	9-7	0.540	-	++	++	28.67	8.93	2.96
CHI	12-4	0.768	++	++	-	-	-	-
BAL	10-6	0.714	++	++	-	-	-	-
HOU	11-5	0.674	++	++	-	-	-	-
IND	10-6	0.667	-	++	++	-	-	-
SEA	10-6	0.653	-	++	-	-	-	-
PIT	9-6-1	0.627	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	8-7-1	0.541	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	10-6	0.534	++	++	++	-	-	-
TEN	9-7	0.517	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	7-9	0.488	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-9	0.484	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	6-10	0.456	-	-	-	-	-	-
GB	6-9-1	0.454	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	7-8-1	0.434	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	6-10	0.421	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-11	0.418	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	5-11	0.383	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	6-10	0.345	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	4-12	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	7-9	0.324	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	5-11	0.317	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-12	0.300	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	7-9	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	6-10	0.270	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	4-12	0.192	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	3-13	0.128	-	-	-	-	-	-

2019-01-07

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Wildcard Sunday

New Orleans over Kansas City

Philadelphia took down the strongest team in the league by my points scored and allowed measurement, and Los Angeles went into Baltimore and also pulled off what I would consider an upset, despite their 2 game advantage by record. But, often this first weekend consists of 4 games with no teams that make the next round, so the whole weekend could be sort of pointless. Both New Orleans and the LA Rams got a sizable boost from Philadelphia's win, over 4 percentage points for New Orleans and almost 10 points for LA to win the NFC.

So who am I rooting for on Saturday?

Indianapolis at Kansas City: KC is my adopted home team, at least for now, so I'll be rooting for them. Nothing personal, Indianapolis.

Dallas at Los Angeles Rams: As a kid, I had a Troy Aikman poster up in my room. I still have the poster, in fact. Now, he had already won one Superbowl and was headed to another when I got it, so I was definitely being a bandwagon fan, but still, I used to root for the Cowboys. Also, in case you haven't noticed, I also used to root for the Rams. It's kind of tough to root for them while they are still owned by the same guy that took them out of St. Louis, but I'd kind of like to see them face Kansas City in the Superbowl. Ultimately, I guess I'll pull for the Rams in this one.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NO	13-3	0.745	++	++	++	71.34	41.91	23.55
LAR	13-3	0.722	++	++	++	69.35	36.95	19.68
KC	12-4	0.708	++	++	++	54.81	28.02	14.34
NE	11-5	0.708	++	++	++	52.32	27.28	13.95
LAC	12-4	0.688	-	++	++	47.68	23.77	11.62
IND	10-6	0.667	-	++	++	45.19	20.93	9.73
PHI	9-7	0.540	-	++	++	28.66	10.64	3.62
DAL	10-6	0.534	++	++	++	30.65	10.50	3.52
CHI	12-4	0.768	++	++	-	-	-	-
BAL	10-6	0.714	++	++	-	-	-	-
HOU	11-5	0.674	++	++	-	-	-	-
SEA	10-6	0.653	-	++	-	-	-	-
PIT	9-6-1	0.627	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	8-7-1	0.541	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	9-7	0.517	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	7-9	0.488	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-9	0.484	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	6-10	0.456	-	-	-	-	-	-
GB	6-9-1	0.454	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	7-8-1	0.434	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	6-10	0.421	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-11	0.418	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	5-11	0.383	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	6-10	0.346	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	4-12	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	7-9	0.324	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	5-11	0.317	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-12	0.300	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	7-9	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	6-10	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	4-12	0.192	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	3-13	0.128	-	-	-	-	-	-

2019-01-06

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 19

We finished off the bowl games with 11 more plus the FCS championship. Congratulations to North Dakota State, champions from 2011-2015 and now 2017-2018. In the FBS, we now have just the title game to go, but Ohio State bumped themselves up to #3 with a bowl win over Washington. The winner of Clemon-Alabama should get my #1 spot, and the team who lost to the winner, either Notre Dame or Oklahoma, may also pass up Ohio State.

1	Clemson	14-0
2	Alabama	14-0
3	Ohio State	13-1
4	Notre Dame	12-1
5	Oklahoma	12-2
6	Georgia	11-3
7	UCF	12-1
8	Fresno State	12-2
9	Washington State	11-2
10	Army	11-2
11	Appalachian State	11-2
12	Cincinnati	11-2
13	Florida	10-3
14	LSU	10-3
15	Washington	10-4
16	Michigan	10-3
17	Kentucky	10-3
18	UAB	11-3
19	Texas	10-4
20	Utah State	11-2
21	Boise State	10-3
22	Syracuse	10-3
23	Texas A&M	9-4
24	Troy	10-3
25	Utah	9-5
26	Stanford	9-4
27	Georgia Southern	10-3
28	Iowa	9-4
29	Northwestern	9-5
30	Penn State	9-4
31	NC State	9-4
32	Buffalo	10-4
33	Oregon	9-4
34	Marshall	9-4
35	Duke	8-5
36	Iowa State	8-5
37	West Virginia	8-4
38	Mississippi State	8-5
39	Ohio	9-4
40	Auburn	8-5
41	Missouri	8-5
42	North Texas	9-4
43	Virginia	8-5
44	Northern Illinois	8-6
45	Florida Intl	9-4
46	Wisconsin	8-5
47	Middle Tennessee	8-6
48	Temple	8-5
49	Pittsburgh	7-7
50	Arkansas State	8-5
51	South Carolina	7-6
52	Hawai'i	8-6
53	TCU	7-6
54	Wake Forest	7-6
55	Nevada	8-5
56	BYU	7-6
57	Louisiana Tech	8-5
58	Boston College	7-5
59	Oklahoma State	7-6
60	Baylor	7-6
61	Miami	7-6
62	Georgia Tech	7-6
63	Minnesota	7-6
64	Tulane	7-6
65	Michigan State	7-6
66	Houston	8-5
67	Memphis	8-6
68	Arizona State	7-6
69	California	7-6
70	San Diego State	7-6
71	Eastern Michigan	7-6
72	South Florida	7-6
73	Louisiana	7-7
74	Purdue	6-7
75	Vanderbilt	6-7
76	Western Michigan	7-6
77	Toledo	7-6
78	Virginia Tech	6-7
79	Miami (OH)	6-6
80	Wyoming	6-6
81	Florida State	5-7
82	Southern Mississippi	6-5
83	Tennessee	5-7
84	UL Monroe	6-6
85	Texas Tech	5-7
86	Indiana	5-7
87	Kansas State	5-7
88	Maryland	5-7
89	Florida Atlantic	5-7
90	Coastal Carolina	5-7
91	USC	5-7
92	Ole Miss	5-7
93	Air Force	5-7
94	Arizona	5-7
95	SMU	5-7
96	Charlotte	5-7
97	Colorado	5-7
98	Nebraska	4-8
99	UMass	4-8
100	UCLA	3-9
101	Illinois	4-8
102	Akron	4-8
103	UNLV	4-8
104	Ball State	4-8
105	Old Dominion	4-8
106	South Alabama	3-9
107	Navy	3-10
108	Kansas	3-9
109	East Carolina	3-9
110	New Mexico	3-9
111	Louisville	2-10
112	UTSA	3-9
113	New Mexico State	3-9
114	Colorado State	3-9
115	Tulsa	3-9
116	Bowling Green	3-9
117	Western Kentucky	3-9
118	Georgia State	2-10
119	North Carolina	2-9
120	Oregon State	2-10
121	Arkansas	2-10
122	Texas State	3-9
123	Rice	2-11
124	San Jose State	1-11
125	Kent State	2-10
126	Rutgers	1-11
127	UConn	1-11
128	Central Michigan	1-11
129	UTEP	1-11

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford
Week 5 Notre Dame
Week 6 Notre Dame
Week 7 Notre Dame
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Clemson
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson
Week 14 Clemson
Week 15 Clemson
Week 16 Clemson
Week 17 Clemson
Week 18 Clemson

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Wildcard Saturday

New Orleans over Kansas City

Both games went the way I was rooting yesterday, though neither matched my projection. Indianapolis was nearly 50/50 to beat Houston, though. I think Seattle was close enough in their loss to Dallas that the injury to Sebastian Janikowski really could have made the difference for them. You never want to have your punter doing your kicking in a playoff game. Kansas City got a little boost by getting to face the weakest remaining team, giving them a little separation from New England in the AFC favorite spot. A Baltimore win would lower New England's chances further, while LA would boost them back up a bit.

So who am I rooting for today?

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore: I guess Baltimore? I don't know. I know it'll cause even more quarterback controversy if they lose, because they're sticking with Lamar Jackson instead of going back to Joe Flacco now that he's healthy.

Philadelphia at Chicago: Philadelphia, because Nick Foles taking over for the injured started 2 years in a row is too good of a story not to root for. Also he's a former Ram, along with Chris Long. With as short as NFL careers are, player that played for St. Louis won't be around all that much longer. The Bears also have former Ram Benny Cunningham, as well as Mizzou guy Chase Daniel, so

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NO	13-3	0.745	++	++	++	71.71	37.27	20.78
CHI	12-4	0.768	++	++	73.81	41.36	24.43	14.36
LAR	13-3	0.722	++	++	++	50.61	26.98	14.25
KC	12-4	0.708	++	++	++	54.82	27.59	13.23
NE	11-5	0.708	++	++	++	50.67	26.42	12.66
IND	10-6	0.667	-	++	++	45.18	20.58	8.90
BAL	10-6	0.714	++	++	53.08	26.95	14.26	6.94
LAC	12-4	0.688	-	++	46.92	22.38	11.15	5.10
DAL	10-6	0.534	++	++	++	28.81	8.55	2.83
PHI	9-7	0.540	-	++	26.19	7.50	2.78	0.94
HOU	11-5	0.674	++	++	-	-	-	-
SEA	10-6	0.653	-	++	-	-	-	-
PIT	9-6-1	0.627	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	8-7-1	0.541	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	9-7	0.517	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	7-9	0.488	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-9	0.484	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	6-10	0.456	-	-	-	-	-	-
GB	6-9-1	0.454	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	7-8-1	0.434	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	6-10	0.421	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-11	0.418	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	5-11	0.383	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	6-10	0.345	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	4-12	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	7-9	0.323	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	5-11	0.317	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-12	0.300	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	7-9	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	6-10	0.270	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	4-12	0.192	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	3-13	0.128	-	-	-	-	-	-