Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 3, Thursday

Los Angeles Rams over Miami

The projection didn't change, but there's still big news! Cleveland actually won a game. Sure, they managed not to lose in week 1, but now they've got a win.

I'm really thinking I need to add in homefield advantage next year. I've been making picks in fivethirtyeight's projection contest, and in that one I use my strengths here but also the 2017 rate of  homefield advantage (145 out of 256 games were won by the home team, if you're curious). That caused me to pick Cleveland over New York. despite a .539 to .493 disadvantage for Cleveland. Maybe I should make a second entry without homefield considered and just let them keep track for me which one does better.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	2-0	0.562	67.01	77.58	61.72	34.50	19.21	10.41
MIA	2-0	0.533	55.63	68.40	50.39	26.04	13.41	6.94
CIN	2-0	0.533	47.24	64.50	47.15	24.38	12.58	6.52
JAC	2-0	0.532	50.19	63.76	46.44	23.94	12.29	6.35
TB	2-0	0.519	44.64	62.18	45.26	23.00	11.57	5.78
KC	2-0	0.519	42.47	60.63	42.63	21.37	10.66	5.37
BAL	1-1	0.547	26.26	46.22	31.31	16.59	8.79	4.67
MIN	1-0-1	0.515	36.58	53.88	37.11	18.64	9.32	4.62
DEN	2-0	0.508	36.71	54.16	36.67	17.94	8.74	4.31
WAS	1-1	0.518	33.93	46.52	31.20	15.75	7.92	3.95
GB	1-0-1	0.502	31.39	49.22	32.73	15.96	7.75	3.74
CHI	1-1	0.513	25.45	41.71	27.37	13.66	6.79	3.35
NYJ	1-2	0.538	19.41	32.73	20.71	10.75	5.58	2.92
DAL	1-1	0.497	29.16	39.65	24.89	11.98	5.75	2.74
PHI	1-1	0.500	27.78	38.50	24.20	11.74	5.68	2.73
ATL	1-1	0.502	21.80	36.83	23.48	11.46	5.57	2.69
CAR	1-1	0.502	18.76	35.25	22.51	10.98	5.34	2.58
IND	1-1	0.502	23.11	34.54	21.37	10.30	4.96	2.42
SF	1-1	0.490	19.62	35.16	21.66	10.29	4.92	2.32
LAC	1-1	0.502	16.18	32.63	19.99	9.63	4.63	2.25
CLE	1-1-1	0.502	16.40	29.87	18.24	8.82	4.27	2.08
NE	1-1	0.492	19.62	31.41	18.91	8.94	4.22	2.02
NO	1-1	0.493	14.80	29.34	18.10	8.65	4.13	1.95
TEN	1-1	0.491	19.70	30.70	18.31	8.62	4.06	1.93
PIT	0-1-1	0.492	10.11	19.53	11.44	5.41	2.56	1.22
SEA	0-2	0.480	9.19	17.39	9.89	4.60	2.16	0.99
NYG	0-2	0.469	9.13	15.20	8.47	3.83	1.74	0.78
HOU	0-2	0.478	7.00	12.34	6.80	3.12	1.43	0.66
DET	0-2	0.456	6.58	12.50	6.81	3.00	1.33	0.58
OAK	0-2	0.460	4.64	10.57	5.63	2.48	1.09	0.48
ARI	0-2	0.438	4.17	9.10	4.60	1.94	0.83	0.35
BUF	0-2	0.441	5.34	8.02	4.01	1.69	0.71	0.30

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami