2019-01-14

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Divisional Sunday

New Orleans over Kansas City

This has been a very close year for the teams at the top. No team crossed the 30% mark for Super Bowl winning chances all year, until of course one will cross 50% once the games are over on Sunday. Speaking of even, Kansas City and New England couldn't be much closer. Their strengths, shown as .708 for both in my chart, to more decimal places are .70805 and .70781. Hopefully that means we'll have 2 pretty good and close games. I'd argue that from a pure football perspective, next Sunday might be better than the Super Bowl, having 2 great games instead of just one. But there's not nearly the pomp and circumstance, parties with casual football fans, and old rock bands lip-syncing the halftime shows.

Onto the teams I'll be rooting for to make the Super Bowl:

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans: I'm not sure when I soured on New Orleans, but I just can't root for them. Maybe it's the all-black uniforms. Get some gold or white pants, guys. Of course, they were a division rival of the Rams in St. Louis in the NFC West from 1995-2001, so maybe that's the reason. So I find myself rooting for the Rams yet again.

New England at Kansas City: We always give our local Chiefs fans trouble about how they always fold late in the season or in the playoffs, so it's time they get a chance to get back to the Super Bowl, where they haven't been since Super Bowl IV as an AFL team.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO13-30.745++++++++52.9628.95
LAR13-30.722++++++++47.0424.32
KC12-40.708++++++++50.0323.39
NE11-50.708++++++++49.9723.35
CHI12-40.768++++----
BAL10-60.714++++----
LAC12-40.688-++++---
HOU11-50.674++++----
IND10-60.667-++++---
SEA10-60.653-++----
PIT9-6-10.627------
MIN8-7-10.541------
PHI9-70.540-++++---
DAL10-60.534++++++---
TEN9-70.517------
CAR7-90.488------
ATL7-90.484------
DEN6-100.456------
GB6-9-10.454------
CLE7-8-10.434------
DET6-100.421------
NYG5-110.418------
TB5-110.383------
CIN6-100.345------
SF4-120.326------
WAS7-90.324------
JAC5-110.317------
NYJ4-120.300------
MIA7-90.285------
BUF6-100.270------
OAK4-120.192------
ARI3-130.128------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)
First to clinch a playoff spot: Los Angeles Rams (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New Orleans (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: New Orleans (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from the Playoffs: San Francisco and Oakland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 17, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Wildcard Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Wildcard Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Divisional Saturday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

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