2018-12-23

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 16, Saturday

New Orleans over Kansas City

Can we just agree Saturday games are weird? It just doesn't feel like the right day for the NFL when you also watch college football. At least all 4 teams were fighting for playoff position. The LA Chargers lost to Baltimore, who now have an 80% chance at either the second wildcard or winning the AFC North. That loss helps Kansas City too, moving them from 77% to 92% likely to have homefield throughout the playoffs, and from 79% to 96% for the AFC West. They can clinch both with a win Sunday and a Houston loss or tie, or a few other combinations of game results that clinch a lower tiebreaker for them.

In the other game, Tennessee beat Washington, but both teams are still alive, though Washington can't win the NFC East now, due to their bad divisional record (2-3 currently). Tennessee is still holding on to a very tiny chance of winning the AFC South, and about a 34% chance of playoffs overall. Either of Saturday's results on its own would have eliminated Cleveland, who needed a bunch of teams to pile up at 8 wins to have a chance.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO12-20.759++++99.2368.9141.0725.50
CHI10-40.723++++75.9943.0622.1912.75
KC11-30.67096.13++97.7251.2626.8312.23
LAR11-30.667++++94.0445.5420.3410.38
HOU10-40.64393.6099.4983.9541.2919.758.43
BAL9-60.71161.3180.3947.5326.9715.517.80
LAC11-40.6603.87++52.6526.6413.536.02
NE9-50.62198.6298.6563.5829.5113.295.37
SEA8-60.639-98.4358.4222.689.894.73
PIT8-5-10.62538.6946.1821.4610.134.741.94
IND8-60.6373.1838.7518.748.754.201.77
DAL8-60.51796.8097.5238.4310.893.401.22
MIN7-6-10.531-65.1923.206.492.320.86
TEN9-60.5573.2234.1813.845.342.130.73
PHI7-70.4853.2029.728.692.070.670.22
WAS7-80.379-7.431.530.260.060.02
CAR6-80.479-1.710.450.110.040.01
MIA7-70.3501.382.350.540.120.030.00
DEN6-80.515------
GB5-8-10.502------
ATL5-90.455------
CLE6-7-10.422------
NYG5-90.418------
TB5-90.398------
DET5-90.397------
CIN6-80.370------
NYJ4-100.368------
SF4-100.363------
JAC4-100.342------
BUF5-90.247------
OAK3-110.231------
ARI3-110.171------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)
First to clinch a playoff spot: Los Angeles Rams (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from the Playoffs: San Francisco and Oakland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City

No comments:

Post a Comment