2018-11-30

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 13, Thursday

New Orleans over Kansas City

New Orleans had a chance to be the first team to clinch a playoff spot, but couldn't pull out a win against Dallas. Now they'll probably lose that honor to LA, although nothing's for sure until it happens.

Down in nearly-eliminated land, the Dallas win had the effect of lowers Arizona's playoff chances, because that's one more team than Arizona can only tie at 7-9, not beat without a tiebreaker. So, with their odds lowering significantly, they also never won the Super Bowl in today's simulations, despite there being 2 billion of them again. Oakland is also showing as 0.000000% likely to make the playoffs when rounded, which translates to less than 10 playoff appearances in the 2 billion combinations.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO10-20.72098.9099.9794.1959.1235.1621.08
LAR10-10.65699.99100.0095.0953.6625.3813.35
CHI8-30.68992.1798.9476.4640.7022.2612.54
KC9-20.65485.7499.7588.2547.1425.3712.27
LAC8-30.66214.2591.0355.8029.9816.318.04
NE8-30.60698.4398.9777.1336.9317.177.44
HOU8-30.60585.6696.2265.7731.1614.506.26
PIT7-3-10.61980.3090.3152.6226.0212.645.65
BAL6-50.65318.6759.8633.2317.419.154.41
DAL7-50.55867.7076.7338.6914.125.402.29
SEA6-50.5660.0167.5832.2012.034.762.05
IND6-50.58913.4541.8220.019.074.111.71
MIN6-4-10.5397.7060.3026.949.363.471.41
WAS6-50.47925.0452.1020.015.921.870.65
CAR6-50.5091.1025.189.623.181.110.42
DEN5-60.5000.007.983.071.130.420.14
PHI5-60.4517.269.103.420.920.270.09
GB4-6-10.4940.136.172.230.690.230.08
TEN5-60.4310.894.331.390.420.130.04
ATL4-70.452-2.390.740.200.060.02
MIA5-60.3811.474.431.200.310.080.02
CIN5-60.3850.933.801.050.280.080.02
CLE4-6-10.4420.111.340.440.140.040.01
DET4-70.4060.001.000.270.060.020.00
TB4-70.428-0.540.150.040.010.00
BUF4-70.2720.100.150.030.000.000.00
JAC3-80.3940.000.020.000.000.000.00
NYG3-80.4010.000.000.000.000.000.00
NYJ3-80.380-0.010.000.000.000.00
SF2-90.397-0.000.000.000.000.00
OAK2-90.263-0.00----
ARI2-90.243-0.000.000.000.00-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City

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