If I tracked some sort of metric for how meaningful an individual day of games was, based on how much it changed the projections, this Thursday with a game between 1-6 Oakland and 1-7 San Francisco might get the lowest score ever. I did notice a few oddities.
First, San Francisco won, but the Rams chances of winning the NFC West went up, as did Arizona's. Only Seattle's dropped. This is likely due to specific tiebreaker scenarios, and/or just the margin of error of my random sampling.
Second, I now show San Francisco with a nonzero chance of getting homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, but last week, even with way more runs, I showed no chance. I realized that when I get to tiebreakers based on points scored, I'm using the actual numbers for the season so far. I haven't completely gotten to the bottom of things to prove it, but I suspect I know what's happening. The 34-3 win by San Francisco put them ahead of a team they were previously stuck behind in one of the points tiebreakers, which are the conference or league combined rank of points scored and allowed, net points in common games, and net points in all games. In essence, my projections are ignoring the possibility of a team winning the rest of their games 100-0, or even just by 31.
As a side note, I never implemented the last resort tiebreaker, Best Net Touchdowns, but I do log a message in my output if it ever actually drops that far down the list. It's pretty rare after the first week or two.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAR | 8-0 | 0.667 | 97.17 | 99.70 | 96.19 | 59.71 | 36.61 | 21.46 |
| KC | 7-1 | 0.621 | 87.59 | 99.18 | 90.15 | 51.32 | 28.32 | 14.77 |
| NE | 6-2 | 0.593 | 90.09 | 95.09 | 81.09 | 43.32 | 21.92 | 10.79 |
| NO | 6-1 | 0.578 | 62.64 | 86.86 | 67.05 | 34.19 | 15.91 | 7.83 |
| BAL | 4-4 | 0.626 | 32.71 | 61.41 | 40.92 | 22.19 | 12.20 | 6.42 |
| CHI | 4-3 | 0.593 | 54.68 | 68.79 | 45.27 | 22.87 | 11.19 | 5.68 |
| HOU | 5-3 | 0.561 | 71.56 | 77.62 | 46.74 | 22.12 | 10.49 | 4.83 |
| LAC | 5-2 | 0.558 | 12.30 | 75.58 | 43.82 | 20.37 | 9.69 | 4.43 |
| CAR | 5-2 | 0.552 | 32.60 | 69.56 | 43.80 | 20.23 | 8.96 | 4.17 |
| PIT | 4-2-1 | 0.555 | 41.91 | 63.63 | 39.82 | 18.76 | 8.80 | 4.00 |
| WAS | 5-2 | 0.528 | 63.52 | 75.41 | 45.91 | 20.08 | 8.39 | 3.71 |
| SEA | 4-3 | 0.584 | 2.83 | 53.17 | 29.50 | 13.63 | 6.78 | 3.38 |
| PHI | 4-4 | 0.549 | 21.85 | 28.85 | 15.35 | 6.79 | 3.05 | 1.41 |
| CIN | 5-3 | 0.474 | 25.09 | 48.84 | 23.29 | 8.95 | 3.48 | 1.31 |
| DAL | 3-4 | 0.542 | 14.62 | 23.24 | 12.25 | 5.31 | 2.35 | 1.07 |
| MIN | 4-3-1 | 0.504 | 20.16 | 31.96 | 15.61 | 6.26 | 2.53 | 1.06 |
| GB | 3-3-1 | 0.504 | 16.05 | 27.86 | 13.55 | 5.40 | 2.19 | 0.92 |
| IND | 3-5 | 0.531 | 14.02 | 19.57 | 9.49 | 4.12 | 1.84 | 0.79 |
| NYJ | 3-5 | 0.485 | 4.49 | 12.42 | 5.79 | 2.29 | 0.92 | 0.36 |
| DET | 3-4 | 0.472 | 9.10 | 12.73 | 5.67 | 2.10 | 0.79 | 0.31 |
| ATL | 3-4 | 0.464 | 2.50 | 12.39 | 5.66 | 2.00 | 0.74 | 0.28 |
| MIA | 4-4 | 0.416 | 5.35 | 17.49 | 6.96 | 2.31 | 0.78 | 0.25 |
| TEN | 3-4 | 0.441 | 10.70 | 12.88 | 5.32 | 1.88 | 0.68 | 0.23 |
| DEN | 3-5 | 0.488 | 0.11 | 8.41 | 3.67 | 1.42 | 0.58 | 0.22 |
| TB | 3-4 | 0.452 | 2.26 | 9.24 | 4.08 | 1.40 | 0.50 | 0.19 |
| JAC | 3-5 | 0.413 | 3.72 | 6.54 | 2.46 | 0.80 | 0.27 | 0.09 |
| CLE | 2-5-1 | 0.420 | 0.29 | 1.22 | 0.46 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| SF | 2-7 | 0.440 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| BUF | 2-6 | 0.287 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NYG | 1-7 | 0.389 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| ARI | 2-6 | 0.321 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| OAK | 1-7 | 0.323 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
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