Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 1

Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore


What's this? Here's a quick rundown originally taken from 2014's introductory post.

Each year I project the Super Bowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.

In week 1, the top teams are the ones with the biggest point differential, which could simply be a function of playing one very bad team. Baltimore won 47-3. They might be the strongest team, or Buffalo might be the weakest team. Or both could be true. Oddly enough, even though Washington has the best overall chances of winning the Super Bowl, they are not favored to win the NFC, thus LA is my winner. The biggest reason for that is that LA is the only 1-0 team in their division, starting them off at a 48% chance of winning the division, while Washington also has Philadelphia to contend with, so they are only a 39% favorite. Similarly, Baltimore also has a division rival at 1-0, and the other two at 0-0-1, which is better than 0-1.

Speaking of that 0-0-1 record, Cleveland has already improved on 2017 with a tie, better than their 0-16 last year. I don't keep track of too many decimal places on the exact records, but the chances I show of the following teams going 0-16 round to 0.01 instead of 0.00 (so they're at least 0.005%, but under 0.015%): New Orleans, Atlanta, Dallas, Oakland, Detroit, Arizona, Buffalo.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
WAS	1-0	0.530	39.47	57.53	41.67	21.89	11.48	5.98
LAR	1-0	0.528	47.72	58.99	42.39	22.13	11.52	5.97
BAL	1-0	0.531	35.51	53.94	38.89	20.44	10.72	5.60
CAR	1-0	0.524	39.05	55.21	39.36	20.41	10.56	5.44
NYJ	1-0	0.529	33.29	51.12	36.47	19.05	9.93	5.16
MIN	1-0	0.517	37.96	53.76	37.84	19.31	9.82	4.98
PHI	1-0	0.517	34.23	51.94	36.28	18.52	9.45	4.80
KC	1-0	0.514	38.72	51.76	35.74	18.07	9.11	4.59
JAC	1-0	0.513	43.34	52.38	35.76	18.01	9.05	4.56
CIN	1-0	0.517	30.01	48.29	33.65	17.13	8.72	4.43
TB	1-0	0.508	34.63	50.09	34.27	17.16	8.58	4.28
MIA	1-0	0.513	28.93	47.50	32.91	16.63	8.40	4.24
NE	1-0	0.513	28.58	46.98	32.51	16.43	8.30	4.19
GB	1-0	0.502	34.12	49.38	33.44	16.51	8.13	4.00
DEN	1-0	0.506	34.24	46.98	31.73	15.76	7.81	3.88
CLE	0-0-1	0.500	17.30	31.58	20.34	10.00	4.92	2.41
PIT	0-0-1	0.500	17.18	31.40	20.24	9.95	4.89	2.40
SEA	0-1	0.494	19.86	30.50	19.04	9.24	4.48	2.17
CHI	0-1	0.498	15.12	27.23	16.89	8.25	4.03	1.97
NYG	0-1	0.487	14.08	25.80	15.84	7.58	3.63	1.73
SF	0-1	0.483	17.30	26.07	15.57	7.36	3.49	1.65
HOU	0-1	0.487	18.93	25.55	15.15	7.21	3.43	1.64
TEN	0-1	0.487	18.79	25.39	15.06	7.17	3.41	1.63
NO	0-1	0.492	12.59	23.46	14.29	6.90	3.34	1.61
IND	0-1	0.483	18.95	25.24	14.87	7.03	3.32	1.58
LAC	0-1	0.486	13.75	23.29	13.98	6.66	3.17	1.52
ATL	0-1	0.483	13.73	23.13	13.82	6.55	3.10	1.47
DAL	0-1	0.476	12.22	21.97	12.96	6.05	2.82	1.32
DET	0-1	0.471	12.80	22.47	13.32	6.15	2.84	1.31
ARI	0-1	0.470	15.12	22.46	13.02	5.99	2.76	1.27
OAK	0-1	0.472	13.30	21.54	12.72	5.88	2.71	1.26
BUF	0-1	0.469	9.21	17.07	9.98	4.58	2.11	0.97