Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 8, Sunday

Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

Another week, another win for LA and KC. Both of them are over 99% likely to make the playoffs.  I've gotten the first blank space in my numbers, indicating something never happened once in the simulations, but it's not in the table I publish here. I have some other stuff I track, like homefield advantage, or having the #1 seed. San Francisco and the New York Giants never achieved the #1 seed in my simulations, although for now I'm not allowing ties, so it's possible there's some weird scenario that would make it possible. Either way, I'm pretty sure neither 1-7 team will wind up on top of the conference. Speaking of homefield advantage, LA has a 75% shot at it in the NFC, and Kansas City is "only" at about 58%.

Also, I forgot to note when LA passed the 20% mark for championship chances, which first happened last Sunday.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	8-0	0.667	97.08	99.71	96.30	59.76	36.64	21.73
KC	7-1	0.621	86.99	99.05	90.33	51.89	29.35	15.30
NO	6-1	0.578	62.57	86.56	66.79	34.03	15.83	7.91
NE	5-2	0.558	83.25	89.56	70.70	35.11	16.57	7.57
BAL	4-4	0.626	32.48	61.45	42.14	23.47	13.09	6.88
CHI	4-3	0.593	54.65	68.83	45.36	22.93	11.21	5.77
HOU	5-3	0.562	71.41	77.74	48.71	23.81	11.44	5.27
LAC	5-2	0.558	12.87	75.34	44.54	21.11	10.25	4.69
PIT	4-2-1	0.556	42.57	64.31	41.94	20.41	9.69	4.41
CAR	5-2	0.552	32.56	69.09	43.49	20.08	8.89	4.21
WAS	5-2	0.528	63.53	75.11	45.61	19.95	8.32	3.74
SEA	4-3	0.584	2.92	55.09	30.59	14.12	7.03	3.55
CIN	5-3	0.474	24.65	48.24	24.21	9.65	3.80	1.43
PHI	4-4	0.550	21.85	28.55	15.17	6.71	3.01	1.42
MIN	4-3-1	0.504	20.41	32.26	15.79	6.33	2.56	1.09
DAL	3-4	0.543	14.61	22.92	12.07	5.23	2.32	1.07
GB	3-3-1	0.504	16.29	28.15	13.72	5.47	2.22	0.94
IND	3-5	0.531	14.02	19.92	9.86	4.42	2.00	0.86
NYJ	3-5	0.484	7.34	14.38	6.89	2.78	1.13	0.44
DET	3-4	0.472	8.65	12.10	5.38	1.99	0.75	0.30
MIA	4-4	0.416	8.66	19.09	7.83	2.66	0.91	0.29
ATL	3-4	0.464	2.50	12.07	5.52	1.94	0.72	0.28
TEN	3-4	0.441	11.00	13.44	5.68	2.08	0.76	0.26
DEN	3-5	0.488	0.13	8.72	3.89	1.54	0.64	0.25
TB	3-4	0.452	2.37	9.44	4.17	1.43	0.51	0.19
JAC	3-5	0.413	3.57	6.39	2.48	0.83	0.28	0.09
CLE	2-5-1	0.420	0.30	1.29	0.50	0.17	0.06	0.02
BUF	2-5	0.320	0.75	0.96	0.27	0.07	0.02	0.00
OAK	1-6	0.368	0.01	0.14	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00
SF	1-7	0.390	0.00	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
NYG	1-7	0.389	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
ARI	2-6	0.321	0.00	0.06	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City