2018-10-29

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 8, Sunday

Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

Another week, another win for LA and KC. Both of them are over 99% likely to make the playoffs.  I've gotten the first blank space in my numbers, indicating something never happened once in the simulations, but it's not in the table I publish here. I have some other stuff I track, like homefield advantage, or having the #1 seed. San Francisco and the New York Giants never achieved the #1 seed in my simulations, although for now I'm not allowing ties, so it's possible there's some weird scenario that would make it possible. Either way, I'm pretty sure neither 1-7 team will wind up on top of the conference. Speaking of homefield advantage, LA has a 75% shot at it in the NFC, and Kansas City is "only" at about 58%.

Also, I forgot to note when LA passed the 20% mark for championship chances, which first happened last Sunday.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR8-00.66797.0899.7196.3059.7636.6421.73
KC7-10.62186.9999.0590.3351.8929.3515.30
NO6-10.57862.5786.5666.7934.0315.837.91
NE5-20.55883.2589.5670.7035.1116.577.57
BAL4-40.62632.4861.4542.1423.4713.096.88
CHI4-30.59354.6568.8345.3622.9311.215.77
HOU5-30.56271.4177.7448.7123.8111.445.27
LAC5-20.55812.8775.3444.5421.1110.254.69
PIT4-2-10.55642.5764.3141.9420.419.694.41
CAR5-20.55232.5669.0943.4920.088.894.21
WAS5-20.52863.5375.1145.6119.958.323.74
SEA4-30.5842.9255.0930.5914.127.033.55
CIN5-30.47424.6548.2424.219.653.801.43
PHI4-40.55021.8528.5515.176.713.011.42
MIN4-3-10.50420.4132.2615.796.332.561.09
DAL3-40.54314.6122.9212.075.232.321.07
GB3-3-10.50416.2928.1513.725.472.220.94
IND3-50.53114.0219.929.864.422.000.86
NYJ3-50.4847.3414.386.892.781.130.44
DET3-40.4728.6512.105.381.990.750.30
MIA4-40.4168.6619.097.832.660.910.29
ATL3-40.4642.5012.075.521.940.720.28
TEN3-40.44111.0013.445.682.080.760.26
DEN3-50.4880.138.723.891.540.640.25
TB3-40.4522.379.444.171.430.510.19
JAC3-50.4133.576.392.480.830.280.09
CLE2-5-10.4200.301.290.500.170.060.02
BUF2-50.3200.750.960.270.070.020.00
OAK1-60.3680.010.140.050.010.000.00
SF1-70.3900.000.040.010.000.000.00
NYG1-70.3890.020.030.010.000.000.00
ARI2-60.3210.000.060.020.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

No comments:

Post a Comment