Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 7, Thursday

Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams

Denver trounced Arizona, but is still only 3-4, so they didn't really mess with the end projection much. Arizona is now down to 421 Superbowl wins out of 100,000,000.

I did find a mistake I made last week, which renders my Week 6 Sunday and Monday numbers incorrect. I manually put the scores into a text file for processing, and accidentally gave Chicago 38 points (and thus a win) instead of 28 points, and the loss, against Miami. They're now properly down at 3-2, and Miami up to 4-2. I did a quick check of Monday's numbers vs what I projected with the error, and the difference wasn't huge, so I'm not going to go back and fix them, but I will keep the correct score in there going forward, and I'll check my results a little more closely against the standings in the future.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	6-0	0.622	93.57	98.15	91.17	53.93	31.48	17.61
BAL	4-2	0.646	57.77	81.54	67.53	42.09	25.90	15.09
KC	5-1	0.561	68.76	84.93	68.07	35.57	17.81	8.82
CHI	3-2	0.580	49.77	69.69	50.49	26.68	13.67	7.07
NO	4-1	0.557	60.95	74.85	54.08	27.34	13.26	6.55
NE	4-2	0.548	49.62	67.63	49.88	25.00	12.11	5.84
LAC	4-2	0.554	25.95	59.05	39.97	20.13	9.94	4.85
CIN	4-2	0.527	25.59	53.74	35.31	16.58	7.84	3.62
DAL	3-3	0.549	35.99	48.60	30.16	14.67	7.04	3.43
SEA	3-3	0.556	6.12	45.51	25.61	12.19	6.07	2.99
PHI	3-3	0.544	30.29	42.00	25.38	12.18	5.79	2.79
NYJ	3-3	0.548	22.54	37.19	23.60	11.62	5.66	2.72
WAS	3-2	0.505	32.89	50.09	29.83	13.15	5.70	2.52
PIT	3-2-1	0.530	14.37	37.31	23.25	10.98	5.22	2.42
CAR	3-2	0.514	25.54	43.32	25.49	11.47	5.09	2.30
GB	3-2-1	0.508	23.03	43.83	25.17	11.14	4.89	2.18
MIA	4-2	0.469	26.34	44.71	26.59	11.02	4.48	1.81
HOU	3-3	0.496	36.86	40.70	21.46	9.31	4.00	1.72
MIN	3-2-1	0.484	16.91	32.98	17.86	7.49	3.11	1.31
JAC	3-3	0.459	29.10	33.01	16.23	6.47	2.55	1.01
TEN	3-3	0.443	26.97	28.96	12.97	4.98	1.89	0.72
DET	2-3	0.478	10.29	18.95	9.75	4.01	1.66	0.69
DEN	3-4	0.502	5.10	13.46	7.21	3.21	1.42	0.62
TB	2-3	0.453	7.99	15.58	7.46	2.87	1.11	0.44
ATL	2-4	0.461	5.52	12.45	5.89	2.29	0.91	0.36
CLE	2-3-1	0.454	2.28	7.68	3.80	1.51	0.61	0.24
IND	1-5	0.453	7.07	7.51	3.15	1.23	0.48	0.19
SF	1-5	0.447	0.30	2.37	1.02	0.38	0.15	0.06
NYG	1-5	0.414	0.83	1.57	0.63	0.21	0.08	0.03
BUF	2-4	0.365	1.50	2.09	0.77	0.24	0.07	0.02
OAK	1-5	0.385	0.19	0.51	0.20	0.07	0.02	0.01
ARI	1-6	0.329	0.01	0.07	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams