2018-11-27

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 12, Final

New Orleans over Kansas City

Houston raised their chances a little and Tennessee lost some ground, but in general things remained the same as Sunday. Also, I didn't notice that yesterday I showed no chance of Oakland winning any of their potential playoff games. A team's chances of winning any game never fall to zero, but since I run full simulations based on probabilities, a bad enough team may show 0 Super Bowl wins. This time of year I try to run over 2 billion simulations each time to avoid that, but Oakland still only managed to win at most one playoff game in any given simulation.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO10-10.71199.5099.9996.8461.9235.7621.03
LAR10-10.65699.99100.0094.6252.3725.3613.34
KC9-20.65485.7499.7588.2847.1525.3812.39
CHI8-30.68992.1799.1474.2039.9521.8812.33
LAC8-30.66314.2591.0255.8129.9916.328.11
NE8-30.60698.4398.9777.0736.9017.167.51
HOU8-30.60585.5696.1865.6431.1014.476.31
PIT7-3-10.61980.5190.4152.7926.1012.685.72
BAL6-50.65318.4759.7933.2017.399.144.44
SEA6-50.5660.0170.3834.5012.815.162.23
IND6-50.58913.5541.9420.069.104.121.73
DAL6-50.54950.8357.8328.4110.163.851.60
MIN6-4-10.5397.7063.4828.9610.053.791.54
WAS6-50.47938.1656.3822.556.672.130.74
CAR6-50.5090.5028.5311.123.611.290.48
DEN5-60.5000.007.963.061.130.410.14
PHI5-60.45011.0012.344.761.290.380.12
GB4-6-10.4940.137.112.600.790.280.10
TEN5-60.4310.884.301.380.420.130.04
ATL4-70.452-2.840.890.240.080.02
MIA5-60.3811.474.401.190.310.080.02
CIN5-60.3850.913.781.040.280.070.02
CLE4-6-10.4420.111.330.440.140.040.01
DET4-70.4060.001.250.340.080.020.01
TB4-70.428-0.710.200.050.020.00
BUF4-70.2720.100.150.030.000.000.00
JAC3-80.3940.000.020.000.000.000.00
NYG3-80.4010.010.020.010.000.000.00
NYJ3-80.380-0.010.000.000.000.00
SF2-90.397-0.000.000.000.000.00
ARI2-90.243-0.000.000.000.000.00
OAK2-90.262-0.000.000.00--

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City

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