Chicago clinched the NFC North, but the 4 other almost-there teams couldn't quite do it. Dallas even fell from 99% to 95% by losing in a shutout to Indianapolis, combined with Philadelphia's unlikely win over the LA Rams. Washington also won, but that was the expected outcome in that game. All teams that were below 8% are now eliminated, except for Cleveland, who needs to win out and also have Indianapolis and Tennessee tie in week 17 among other things, because otherwise one of them will have the 9 wins Cleveland can't reach.
New Orleans is close, but can't clinch a bye on Monday. I don't actually show the probability of getting a first round bye, but when the Wildcard column reaches 100%, that means the team is guaranteed to make the next round, so a bye. Thus, right now the chances are something less than 97.75% of the bye, since some of those simulations are accounted for by winning in the first weekend if they have to play then. Carolina also won't be eliminated with a loss tonight, so this game won't simplify the chart at all tomorrow, just shift the numbers.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 11-2 | 0.743 | ++ | ++ | 97.75 | 65.00 | 37.56 | 22.73 |
| CHI | 10-4 | 0.723 | ++ | ++ | 77.84 | 43.85 | 23.64 | 13.72 |
| KC | 11-3 | 0.670 | 78.91 | ++ | 90.19 | 47.69 | 25.27 | 11.82 |
| LAR | 11-3 | 0.667 | ++ | ++ | 94.46 | 46.82 | 21.59 | 11.14 |
| HOU | 10-4 | 0.643 | 94.98 | 99.82 | 85.10 | 42.75 | 20.57 | 9.02 |
| LAC | 11-3 | 0.676 | 21.09 | ++ | 63.88 | 33.91 | 18.16 | 8.60 |
| NE | 9-5 | 0.621 | 98.68 | 98.74 | 64.32 | 30.16 | 13.75 | 5.71 |
| SEA | 8-6 | 0.639 | - | 98.09 | 58.52 | 23.80 | 10.48 | 5.07 |
| BAL | 8-6 | 0.685 | 35.16 | 49.66 | 27.19 | 14.49 | 7.86 | 3.80 |
| PIT | 8-5-1 | 0.625 | 64.84 | 71.58 | 33.19 | 15.59 | 7.41 | 3.11 |
| IND | 8-6 | 0.637 | 3.16 | 48.48 | 24.34 | 11.33 | 5.49 | 2.37 |
| DAL | 8-6 | 0.517 | 94.31 | 95.59 | 37.69 | 11.18 | 3.56 | 1.29 |
| MIN | 7-6-1 | 0.531 | - | 57.96 | 20.75 | 6.21 | 2.22 | 0.84 |
| TEN | 8-6 | 0.535 | 1.86 | 25.43 | 10.31 | 3.75 | 1.43 | 0.48 |
| PHI | 7-7 | 0.485 | 3.26 | 25.39 | 7.47 | 1.92 | 0.62 | 0.21 |
| WAS | 7-7 | 0.398 | 2.43 | 17.68 | 4.08 | 0.81 | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| CAR | 6-7 | 0.485 | - | 5.29 | 1.44 | 0.41 | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| MIA | 7-7 | 0.350 | 1.32 | 6.29 | 1.47 | 0.31 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| CLE | 6-7-1 | 0.422 | - | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| DEN | 6-8 | 0.515 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| GB | 5-8-1 | 0.502 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ATL | 5-9 | 0.455 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NYG | 5-9 | 0.418 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TB | 5-9 | 0.397 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DET | 5-9 | 0.397 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CIN | 6-8 | 0.370 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NYJ | 4-10 | 0.368 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SF | 4-10 | 0.363 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| JAC | 4-10 | 0.342 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| BUF | 5-9 | 0.247 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| OAK | 3-11 | 0.231 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ARI | 3-11 | 0.171 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)
First to clinch a playoff spot: Los Angeles Rams (Week 13, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the Playoffs: San Francisco and Oakland (Week 13, Sunday)
[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
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