2018-09-05

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 1

College football has officially finished week 1, so it's time to start ranking the teams again. In case you're new here, here's an explanation I mostly just copy from year to year, with some slight editing.

A few years ago, I thought to myself, "I could do a better job than some of the BCS computers".  As I recall, at the time I felt Mizzou was underrated.  The BCS rules stated margin of victory cannot be used, so I thought I'd stick to that.  I put together a convergence algorithm, in which I initially rank the teams by record (so all the undefeated teams start tied at #1), then calculate each team's strength of schedule based on the current rankings of its opponents, and re-sort based on that strength.  I run through this process until 2 consecutive iterations give the same result, or there is a loop.  So, if iteration 10,002 gives the same rankings as iteration 10,000, then each subsequent iteration would fluctuate between the rankings in 10,000 and 10,001.  I average those rankings to come up with the final rankings.  It is still possible - but generally unlikely - that teams can tie for a final ranking. Now that the BCS is dead, I'll just consider these rankings my advice on #1 to #4 to the College Football Playoff committee.

Due to most teams playing other teams in lower divisions at times, and a lack of desire on my part to delve so deeply that I have to track down NAIA schedules, I've decided to count all games listed on ESPN's college football site, which includes all FBS, FCS, and Division II and III schedules, and any of their lower-tier opponents, but only when those opponents play at least a Division III team. (i.e., an NAIA team will be listed when they play against a Div III team, but the rest of their games won't be listed, resulting in a lot of 0-1 teams mixed into my system).  I then filter the final results to only the FBS schools.

In the past, in week 1, there were only 2 possible situations for a team. First is to be 1-0, having defeated an 0-1 team. Second is, unsurprisingly, to be a 0-1 team, having lost to a 1-0 team. For this reason, in week 1, all 1-0 teams will be tied for #1, and the rest tied at N+1, where N is the number of #1 teams. Did your team choose to beat up on an FCS (formerly known as Division 1-AA) team? Congrats, you're #1 this week! However, since 2016 we seem to be in the era of the pre-Week-1 game, which means a 2-0, 0-2, and/or 1-1 team might be in the mix. Also, some teams don't play in Week 1, and you don't get a ranking until you play, thus the bottom of the chart may not be the full number of teams in FBS.

The FBS is now down to 129 teams. Every year I have to adjust my filter to account for any teams joining or leaving the FBS, as well as stylistic differences in how ESPN lists the teams. This year, Idaho left. And, according to ESPN, UT San Antonio is now UTSA, Louisiana Monroe is now UL Monroe, and Connecticut is now UConn. In the past, they've waffled between "Mississippi" and "Ole Miss", and changed Hawaii to Hawai'i. I try to keep up with any adjustments, but if you notice your FBS team missing, leave me a comment and they'll be there next week. I think I'm good, because I have 126 teams represented, and Akron, Nebraska, and Iowa State still to add, since they were canceled this week.

Now onto the Week 1 rankings, which are still mostly silly. Hawai'i sits alone at #1 due to being 2-0, and likewise all the way at the bottom, New Mexico State is already 0-2 and holding onto #126 alone.

1Hawai'i2-0
2Houston1-0
2Boston College1-0
4Washington State1-0
4UMass1-1
4Rice1-1
7UCF1-0
7Ball State1-0
7Georgia State1-0
7UL Monroe1-0
7Northwestern1-0
7Wake Forest1-0
7UAB1-0
7Oklahoma State1-0
7Utah1-0
7Texas A&M1-0
7Wisconsin1-0
7Michigan State1-0
7Stanford1-0
7Syracuse1-0
7Eastern Michigan1-0
7Duke1-0
7Nevada1-0
7Alabama1-0
7Clemson1-0
7Georgia1-0
7Ohio State1-0
7Auburn1-0
7Oklahoma1-0
7Penn State1-0
7Notre Dame1-0
7USC1-0
7TCU1-0
7West Virginia1-0
7Mississippi State1-0
7Boise State1-0
7Maryland1-0
7Oregon1-0
7Illinois1-0
7Rutgers1-0
7South Carolina1-0
7Ole Miss1-0
7NC State1-0
7Georgia Tech1-0
7Air Force1-0
7Ohio1-0
7Pittsburgh1-0
7Kentucky1-0
7Iowa1-0
7California1-0
7Missouri1-0
7Arkansas1-0
7Virginia1-0
7Marshall1-0
7Charlotte1-0
7South Florida1-0
7Buffalo1-0
7Georgia Southern1-0
7Louisiana1-0
7Toledo1-0
7Arkansas State1-0
7Memphis1-0
7Tulsa1-0
7Louisiana Tech1-0
7Southern Mississippi1-0
7Cincinnati1-0
7Indiana1-0
7Kansas State1-0
7Florida1-0
7Vanderbilt1-0
7North Texas1-0
7Baylor1-0
7New Mexico1-0
7Fresno State1-0
7Arizona State1-0
7BYU1-0
7LSU1-0
7Virginia Tech1-0
79Colorado1-0
80Minnesota1-0
81Wyoming1-1
82East Carolina0-1
83Navy0-1
84UConn0-1
84Purdue0-1
84Tulane0-1
84San Jose State0-1
84Western Kentucky0-1
84Utah State0-1
84San Diego State0-1
84Western Michigan0-1
84Army0-1
84Louisville0-1
84Oregon State0-1
84Washington0-1
84Florida Atlantic0-1
84Appalachian State0-1
84Michigan0-1
84UNLV0-1
84Tennessee0-1
84Troy0-1
84Texas0-1
84Bowling Green0-1
84Kent State0-1
84Texas State0-1
84Coastal Carolina0-1
84Texas Tech0-1
84Temple0-1
84Central Michigan0-1
84Northern Illinois0-1
84North Carolina0-1
84Miami (OH)0-1
84Old Dominion0-1
84South Alabama0-1
84UCLA0-1
84Florida Intl0-1
84Kansas0-1
84Middle Tennessee0-1
84SMU0-1
84UTEP0-1
84UTSA0-1
84Arizona0-1
84Miami0-1
84Florida State0-1
125Colorado State0-2
126New Mexico State0-2

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