A few years ago, I thought to myself, "I could do a better job than some of the BCS computers". As I recall, at the time I felt Mizzou was underrated. The BCS rules stated margin of victory cannot be used, so I thought I'd stick to that. I put together a convergence algorithm, in which I initially rank the teams by record (so all the undefeated teams start tied at #1), then calculate each team's strength of schedule based on the current rankings of its opponents, and re-sort based on that strength. I run through this process until 2 consecutive iterations give the same result, or there is a loop. So, if iteration 10,002 gives the same rankings as iteration 10,000, then each subsequent iteration would fluctuate between the rankings in 10,000 and 10,001. I average those rankings to come up with the final rankings. It is still possible - but generally unlikely - that teams can tie for a final ranking. Now that the BCS is dead, I'll just consider these rankings my advice on #1 to #4 to the College Football Playoff committee.
Due to most teams playing other teams in lower divisions at times, and a lack of desire on my part to delve so deeply that I have to track down NAIA schedules, I've decided to count all games listed on ESPN's college football site, which includes all FBS, FCS, and Division II and III schedules, and any of their lower-tier opponents, but only when those opponents play at least a Division III team. (i.e., an NAIA team will be listed when they play against a Div III team, but the rest of their games won't be listed, resulting in a lot of 0-1 teams mixed into my system). I then filter the final results to only the FBS schools.
In the past, in week 1, there were only 2 possible situations for a team. First is to be 1-0, having defeated an 0-1 team. Second is, unsurprisingly, to be a 0-1 team, having lost to a 1-0 team. For this reason, in week 1, all 1-0 teams will be tied for #1, and the rest tied at N+1, where N is the number of #1 teams. Did your team choose to beat up on an FCS (formerly known as Division 1-AA) team? Congrats, you're #1 this week! However, since 2016 we seem to be in the era of the pre-Week-1 game, which means a 2-0, 0-2, and/or 1-1 team might be in the mix. Also, some teams don't play in Week 1, and you don't get a ranking until you play, thus the bottom of the chart may not be the full number of teams in FBS.
The FBS is now down to 129 teams. Every year I have to adjust my filter to account for any teams joining or leaving the FBS, as well as stylistic differences in how ESPN lists the teams. This year, Idaho left. And, according to ESPN, UT San Antonio is now UTSA, Louisiana Monroe is now UL Monroe, and Connecticut is now UConn. In the past, they've waffled between "Mississippi" and "Ole Miss", and changed Hawaii to Hawai'i. I try to keep up with any adjustments, but if you notice your FBS team missing, leave me a comment and they'll be there next week. I think I'm good, because I have 126 teams represented, and Akron, Nebraska, and Iowa State still to add, since they were canceled this week.
Now onto the Week 1 rankings, which are still mostly silly. Hawai'i sits alone at #1 due to being 2-0, and likewise all the way at the bottom, New Mexico State is already 0-2 and holding onto #126 alone.
1 | Hawai'i | 2-0 |
2 | Houston | 1-0 |
2 | Boston College | 1-0 |
4 | Washington State | 1-0 |
4 | UMass | 1-1 |
4 | Rice | 1-1 |
7 | UCF | 1-0 |
7 | Ball State | 1-0 |
7 | Georgia State | 1-0 |
7 | UL Monroe | 1-0 |
7 | Northwestern | 1-0 |
7 | Wake Forest | 1-0 |
7 | UAB | 1-0 |
7 | Oklahoma State | 1-0 |
7 | Utah | 1-0 |
7 | Texas A&M | 1-0 |
7 | Wisconsin | 1-0 |
7 | Michigan State | 1-0 |
7 | Stanford | 1-0 |
7 | Syracuse | 1-0 |
7 | Eastern Michigan | 1-0 |
7 | Duke | 1-0 |
7 | Nevada | 1-0 |
7 | Alabama | 1-0 |
7 | Clemson | 1-0 |
7 | Georgia | 1-0 |
7 | Ohio State | 1-0 |
7 | Auburn | 1-0 |
7 | Oklahoma | 1-0 |
7 | Penn State | 1-0 |
7 | Notre Dame | 1-0 |
7 | USC | 1-0 |
7 | TCU | 1-0 |
7 | West Virginia | 1-0 |
7 | Mississippi State | 1-0 |
7 | Boise State | 1-0 |
7 | Maryland | 1-0 |
7 | Oregon | 1-0 |
7 | Illinois | 1-0 |
7 | Rutgers | 1-0 |
7 | South Carolina | 1-0 |
7 | Ole Miss | 1-0 |
7 | NC State | 1-0 |
7 | Georgia Tech | 1-0 |
7 | Air Force | 1-0 |
7 | Ohio | 1-0 |
7 | Pittsburgh | 1-0 |
7 | Kentucky | 1-0 |
7 | Iowa | 1-0 |
7 | California | 1-0 |
7 | Missouri | 1-0 |
7 | Arkansas | 1-0 |
7 | Virginia | 1-0 |
7 | Marshall | 1-0 |
7 | Charlotte | 1-0 |
7 | South Florida | 1-0 |
7 | Buffalo | 1-0 |
7 | Georgia Southern | 1-0 |
7 | Louisiana | 1-0 |
7 | Toledo | 1-0 |
7 | Arkansas State | 1-0 |
7 | Memphis | 1-0 |
7 | Tulsa | 1-0 |
7 | Louisiana Tech | 1-0 |
7 | Southern Mississippi | 1-0 |
7 | Cincinnati | 1-0 |
7 | Indiana | 1-0 |
7 | Kansas State | 1-0 |
7 | Florida | 1-0 |
7 | Vanderbilt | 1-0 |
7 | North Texas | 1-0 |
7 | Baylor | 1-0 |
7 | New Mexico | 1-0 |
7 | Fresno State | 1-0 |
7 | Arizona State | 1-0 |
7 | BYU | 1-0 |
7 | LSU | 1-0 |
7 | Virginia Tech | 1-0 |
79 | Colorado | 1-0 |
80 | Minnesota | 1-0 |
81 | Wyoming | 1-1 |
82 | East Carolina | 0-1 |
83 | Navy | 0-1 |
84 | UConn | 0-1 |
84 | Purdue | 0-1 |
84 | Tulane | 0-1 |
84 | San Jose State | 0-1 |
84 | Western Kentucky | 0-1 |
84 | Utah State | 0-1 |
84 | San Diego State | 0-1 |
84 | Western Michigan | 0-1 |
84 | Army | 0-1 |
84 | Louisville | 0-1 |
84 | Oregon State | 0-1 |
84 | Washington | 0-1 |
84 | Florida Atlantic | 0-1 |
84 | Appalachian State | 0-1 |
84 | Michigan | 0-1 |
84 | UNLV | 0-1 |
84 | Tennessee | 0-1 |
84 | Troy | 0-1 |
84 | Texas | 0-1 |
84 | Bowling Green | 0-1 |
84 | Kent State | 0-1 |
84 | Texas State | 0-1 |
84 | Coastal Carolina | 0-1 |
84 | Texas Tech | 0-1 |
84 | Temple | 0-1 |
84 | Central Michigan | 0-1 |
84 | Northern Illinois | 0-1 |
84 | North Carolina | 0-1 |
84 | Miami (OH) | 0-1 |
84 | Old Dominion | 0-1 |
84 | South Alabama | 0-1 |
84 | UCLA | 0-1 |
84 | Florida Intl | 0-1 |
84 | Kansas | 0-1 |
84 | Middle Tennessee | 0-1 |
84 | SMU | 0-1 |
84 | UTEP | 0-1 |
84 | UTSA | 0-1 |
84 | Arizona | 0-1 |
84 | Miami | 0-1 |
84 | Florida State | 0-1 |
125 | Colorado State | 0-2 |
126 | New Mexico State | 0-2 |
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