Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 15, Thursday

New Orleans over Kansas City

Kansas City lost to the LA Chargers in terrible fashion, giving up 2 TDs late as well as a 2 point conversion. But, they are still favored to win the AFC West, even though they have a strength value lower than LA. Why's that? Well, let's look at the tiebreakers. First is head to head, which is even at 1-1 on the year. Next is division record, which is 4-1 for KC and 3-2 for LA, so unless the right games go the right way (KC loses to Oakland and LA beats Denver, both in Week 17), Kansas City will win on that tiebreaker. But, suppose that evens up, the next tiebreaker is "best record in common" games, which, inside a division, is easier to think of as "worst record in noncommon games". Division rivals play each other twice (which we can ignore since we're down at this tiebreaker), then have 12 common opponents. The noncommon ones are the against teams that finished in the same 1st-4th position in 2 of the 3 other divisions in the conference, with the entire third conference being opponents of both teams. In this case that means Kansas City played New England and Jacksonville, while LA played Buffalo and Tennessee. LA went 2-0 to KC's 1-1, which means the common games tiebreaker belongs to KC at 9-1 vs 8-2, and indeed LA lost to Denver and the LA Rams, while KC lost only to the Rams.

Anyway, the Chargers are in the playoffs, KC is still the AFC favorite, and the projection remains the same.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NO	11-2	0.744	++	++	98.12	62.48	36.87	22.52
LAR	11-2	0.676	++	++	98.66	53.11	24.60	13.05
KC	11-3	0.671	78.20	++	90.04	49.05	26.42	12.44
CHI	9-4	0.708	99.46	99.95	74.64	38.07	20.23	11.49
LAC	11-3	0.676	21.80	++	64.82	34.95	19.09	9.10
NE	9-4	0.629	96.08	98.56	83.13	40.84	19.19	8.18
HOU	9-4	0.631	92.49	98.72	72.84	35.81	16.86	7.22
SEA	8-5	0.644	-	99.67	55.45	23.38	10.40	5.16
BAL	7-6	0.666	46.30	57.29	29.52	15.17	8.06	3.75
DAL	8-5	0.570	98.94	99.27	44.75	15.69	5.72	2.40
PIT	7-5-1	0.609	52.96	60.54	27.36	12.45	5.80	2.36
IND	7-6	0.592	4.52	37.02	16.99	7.20	3.16	1.23
MIN	6-6-1	0.481	0.54	47.12	14.18	3.79	1.16	0.39
TEN	7-6	0.493	3.00	17.37	6.46	2.15	0.74	0.22
MIA	7-6	0.392	3.92	25.01	6.87	1.70	0.44	0.10
PHI	6-7	0.470	0.41	13.34	3.83	0.94	0.29	0.09
GB	5-7-1	0.516	-	6.17	2.08	0.61	0.21	0.08
CAR	6-7	0.485	-	8.68	2.46	0.72	0.22	0.07
DEN	6-7	0.517	-	4.50	1.74	0.62	0.22	0.07
WAS	6-7	0.394	0.65	19.91	4.48	0.92	0.22	0.06
DET	5-8	0.402	-	4.04	0.93	0.20	0.05	0.01
NYG	5-8	0.454	-	0.67	0.17	0.04	0.01	0.00
TB	5-8	0.413	-	1.06	0.24	0.05	0.01	0.00
CLE	5-7-1	0.422	0.35	0.55	0.15	0.04	0.01	0.00
CIN	5-8	0.349	0.39	0.44	0.09	0.02	0.00	0.00
ATL	4-9	0.409	-	0.11	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
NYJ	4-9	0.380	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	3-10	0.358	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	4-9	0.352	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	3-10	0.254	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	4-9	0.253	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	3-10	0.205	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)
First to clinch a playoff spot: Los Angeles Rams (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from the Playoffs: San Francisco and Oakland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City