Tenets of Wilson: 2016-01

2016-01-30

eBay Wins #204

Every now and then in my eBay trawling, I see a football card listed in my baseball card search results. I'm not sure if that's an eBay bug, or people listing their cards wrong. Either way, I usually throw my customary 1 cent bid that I'll put on just about any card, and this Roddy White happened to fall to me.

2013 Topps Strata #40 Roddy White

I tend to watch the Rams and whatever teams are good, that are getting put into primetime and/or the "game of the week" slots on Sundays, so I didn't see much of the Falcons this year. I had to think twice about whether Roddy was still in the league. In case you're as out of the loop as I am, he is. He's had an impressive career spanning 11 seasons already, and he's still got 3 years left on his contract, not that contracts ever mean much in the NFL.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	3406
Total Spent	$52.53
Per Card	1.542 cents
Change	0 cents

2016-01-28

A Rodney Hampton Contest Win, Part II

1989 Donruss #182 Kirby Puckett
1989 Donruss #193 Mike Schmidt
1998 Donruss #40 Wade Boggs
2001 Fleer Futures #2 Manny Ramirez
2002 Donruss #39 Bernie Williams
2015 Topps - Gold #404 Tanner Scheppers #0528/2015

1989 Donruss is one of those junk wax sets I seem to always have plenty of, but with many of those, I'm often missing the big stars. So the Mike Schmidt card actually fills a gap in my collection. I did have a copy of the Kirby Puckett card already. One of these years I'm going to collect a full parallel set from Topps, like the Gold set of this Tanner Scheppers card.

1995-96 Topps
#277 Michael Jordan
#278 Patrick Ewing
#283 David Robinson
1997-98 Topps
#118 Keith Van Horn
#125 Tracy McGrady

I don't have a whole lot of basketball cards, but these are right in my wheelhouse. I rooted for Michael Jordan during his heyday with Chicago. It's hard to believe his comeback was now over 20 years ago.

1992 Elvis Collection
#23
#90
#167
#207
#247
#346
#397
#437
#457

1992 Elvis Collection
#473
#480
#525
#552

1992 Elvis Collection
#34
#54
#58
#110
#172
#174
#245
#251

1992 Elvis Collection
#425
#520
#603

I got two unopened packs of this 1992 Elvis Collection set as part of my prize pack. They're all new to me, as my non-sports collection is pretty small. I was happy to see the cards didn't have the dreaded melted sticky gloss, as many older unopened packs of cards do. They're all in good shape. There's a good mix of black and white and color images, and images from concerts, movies, and Elvis's life. I'd say my favorite is #425, featuring his white studded jumpsuit from a concert.

That's it for the prize package. Thanks again to Sport Card Collectors for the contest!

2016-01-26

A Rodney Hampton Contest Win

I'm falling a little behind on posting due to several days a week of NFL projections and NCAA Football Power Rankings, so now's the time I start catching up. I won this contest back in September, by guessing how many Rodney Hampton cards were in a lot purchased at Sport Card Collectors. If you follow that link, you'll see everything I won, but here it is again anyway, because I like cataloging stuff, as well as posting my winnings to show my gratitude to the generous contest-runner.

1995 Fleer Ultra - Gold Medallion #14 Bert Emanuel
1995 Fleer Ultra - Gold Medallion #15 Jeff George
2014 Sage Hit #51 Blake Bortles
2014 Sage Hit #60 Jimmy Garoppolo
2007 Topps - Ring of Honor #RH41-PM Peyton Manning
1995 Fleer - Gridiron Leaders #10 Steve Young
2014 Sage Hit - Autographs #A58 Travis Swanson
1990-91 Topps - Team Scoring Leaders #12 Wayne Gretzky

I didn't wait until today to post this for any particular reason, but now's a great time for a Peyton Manning card. He's getting ready to play in what is probably his last Superbowl, and possibly his last professional game. On the opposite end, there are some nice pre-draft rookies, and a hockey player you may have heard of.

1995 Flair - Preview
#10 Barry Sanders
#18 Dan Marino
#28 Chris Warren
2014 Sage Hit #7 Jadeveon Clowney
1996-97 SPx #17 Doug Weight
2014 Topps Chrome - Refractors #179 Carlos Beltran

These are all the horizontal cards from the prize package, because I despise scanning whitespace. There's another pre-draft rookie in Jadeveon Clowney, and some top football players from 1995. There were only two hockey cards in the package, and both features former Blues players, this one being a holographic Doug Weight. And, that Carlos Beltran is the first 2014 Chrome card in my collection. I need to expand my horizons into Chrome more often, because I always like how they look.

Since I like to label all my posts with every card set and hometown player shown, I'm out of space for this post. I'll cover the rest in the next one, including what's inside the unopened packs.

2016-01-24

Superbowl 50 Projection, Championship Sunday

Carolina over Denver

I've kept all 12 playoff teams in the grid below so you can see just how unlikely Denver's win in the AFC was. They did have a bye to advance them one round, and homefield advantage in the next two rounds, but they beat a better Pittsburgh and New England team in two consecutive weeks.

Carolina has been the strongest team for most of the year, trading spots with Arizona from time to time. Their appearance is thus much less surprising. They've jumped out to a big lead in both playoff games so far, and I feel like their 71.2% chances to beat Denver are probably about right.

Earlier this season, in a tongue-in-cheek post, I declared I had already submitted the winning entry to a Superbowl contest. I picked Carolina over New England. I'm actually reasonably close to winning, because the only other contestant to pick Carolina also picked them to beat New England, so I just need a 57.5 Over/Under to hit the Over. So, if they win, I'll be hoping Carolina can repeat their 49-point performance from this week. But, I think I'll be rooting for Peyton Manning to go out with a Superbowl win, partially because I'm a fan, and partially because I think he may be too stubborn to retire if he loses.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CAR	15-1	0.810	++	++	++	++	++	71.20
ARI	13-3	0.792	++	++	++	++	-	-
CIN	12-4	0.771	++	++	-	-	-	-
SEA	10-6	0.768	-	++	++	-	-	-
NE	12-4	0.762	++	++	++	++	-	-
KC	11-5	0.737	-	++	++	-	-	-
PIT	10-6	0.699	-	++	++	-	-	-
MIN	11-5	0.638	++	++	-	-	-	-
DEN	12-4	0.633	++	++	++	++	++	28.80
GB	10-6	0.596	-	++	++	-	-	-
HOU	9-7	0.559	++	++	-	-	-	-
WAS	9-7	0.518	++	++	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 16, Sunday)

First to 30% chance of Superbowl Win: Carolina (Divisional Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 9, Thursday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 11, Final)

First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Carolina (Week 14, Sunday)

First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: Carolina, Denver (Week 17, Final)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Miami (Week 11, Final)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Saturday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Thursday]
[Week 16, Saturday]
[Week 16, Sunday]
[Week 16, Final]
[Week 17, Final]
[Wildcard Saturday]
[Wildcard Sunday]
[Divisional Saturday]
[Divisional Sunday]

2016-01-22

eBay Wins #203

Today I continue to sort through my eBay wins with 12 cards from 1985. 11 of them are from Topps flagship, but 11 doesn't divide up nicely and scan well, so I added in Lou Brock at the end there, also from 1985. I can't find a lot of info about that "Collector's Series" set, except that Zistle claims it came from Woolworth's. I now have 2 cards from that set, and both are Lou Brock.

1985 Topps
#36 Fred Breining
#102 Tom Dunbar
#103 Randy Lerch
#105 Ron Kittle
#216 Jerry Don Gleaton
#283 Fran Mullins

Of the other 11 players shown, only Bill Dawley played for the Cardinals, in 1987. They made it to the World Series that year, but he had no postseason appearances.

1985 Topps
#364 Richard Dotson
#487 Frank Williams
#592 Jeff Robinson
#634 Bill Dawley
#696 John Rabb
1985 Topps Collector's Series #5 Lou Brock

I only had 37 unique cards from 1985 Topps before this pile, and none of these are duplicates (except for Brock as I mentioned). For any of you who still need someone to do the math for you, now I've got 48, just over 6% of the 792 card set.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	3405
Total Spent	$52.52
Per Card	1.542 cents
Change	-0.002 cents

2016-01-20

Zistle Trade #23

This Zistle trade was mostly from the junk wax era, but I haven't quite filled all those gaps in my collection, so there's a smattering of them on my want list. Oddly enough, my trading partner wanted some "junk" in return, so I figured, why not. I'm too lazy to look it up now, but I think it was mostly 89 or 91 Donruss.

1988 Topps #642 Bob Dernier
1990 Score #233 Ken Hill
1991 Fleer #633 Bernard Gilkey
1991 Fleer #636 Felix Jose
1991 Fleer #640 Jose Oquendo
1991 Fleer #645 Lee Smith
1991 Topps #112 Frank DiPino
1992 Fleer #589 Gerald Perry
1992 Score #544 Bernard Gilkey

One of these things is not like the others, and that is Bobby Dernier. The others are all Cardinals, and actually mostly guys I remember playing for the team during my childhood, except for Frank DiPino. As for Bobby, I added that to my list awhile back because he was the favorite player of a good friend of mine when he was growing up. I was looking through my collection for a card of his to perhaps try to get autographed through the mail, but I didn't have any, and thus I added a few I should be able to get cheaply to my want list. Now I just need to track down an address for Mr. Dernier, or figure out who he's working for.

1992 Donruss #427 Bobby Bonilla
1992 Donruss #442 John Smoltz
1992 Donruss #564 Deion Sanders
1992 Donruss #610 Bobby Bonilla

I recently purchased a 1992 Donruss Series 1 set, which actually quashed the first trade this particular trader proposed to me. He did it the day after I bought the set, before I thought to remove the series 1 cards from my want list. Luckily my oversight didn't frustrate him, and we worked out a deal removing those cards. Here are the series 2 cards I still needed. If you're not a Cardinals fan, you may have forgotten that Smoltz and Bonilla both finished their careers in St. Louis. It wasn't very long for either one, but I still consider them players I collect. I've waffled about whether I should start collecting Deion Sanders cards. He'd go well with my other two-sport-star collection target, Bo Jackson. He was also a part of the very first baseball game I ever attended. I'll probably complete this base set eventually anyway, so I went ahead and added it to my wantlist, and now I have it.

2016-01-18

Superbowl 50 Projection, Divisional Sunday

Carolina over New England

There are only 2 days of football left. Like I think I've written before, from a pure football perspective, the Conference Championship day is the best day of the year. The Superbowl has lots of accouterments, of course, such as the commercials, the 2 weeks of hype, and Superbowl parties.

Both teams I rooted for yesterday lost, Pittsburgh to Denver, and Seattle to Carolina. The first two weeks of playoffs have been effectively meaningless, as we'll now see the #1 vs #2 seeds in each conference championship.

Here's who I'm rooting for on Championship Sunday:

New England at Denver:
I've got New England favored almost 2 to 1, but I've got to root for the underdog in this one. Denver is actually the higher seed and will be hosting, so perhaps that will tip the scales in their favor a bit.

Arizona at Carolina:
I'm not sure which of these two I'd like to see in the Superbowl. Neither is my favorite team, but neither really rubs me the wrong way either. I'll say I'm officially rooting for Carolina, but that may change between now and then.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CAR	15-1	0.810	++	++	++	++	52.85	32.76
ARI	13-3	0.791	++	++	++	++	47.15	27.97
CIN	12-4	0.771	++	++	-	-	-	-
SEA	10-6	0.767	-	++	++	-	-	-
NE	12-4	0.762	++	++	++	++	65.04	28.80
KC	11-5	0.737	-	++	++	-	-	-
PIT	10-6	0.699	-	++	++	-	-	-
MIN	11-5	0.638	++	++	-	-	-	-
DEN	12-4	0.633	++	++	++	++	34.96	10.47
GB	10-6	0.596	-	++	++	-	-	-
HOU	9-7	0.559	++	++	-	-	-	-
WAS	9-7	0.518	++	++	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 16, Sunday)

First to 30% chance of Superbowl Win: Carolina (Divisional Sunday)

First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Carolina (Week 14, Sunday)

First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: Carolina, Denver (Week 17, Final)

2016-01-17

Superbowl 50 Projection, Divisional Saturday

Arizona over New England

This has been a tough week for me as a football fan. The Rams have left for Los Angeles. I can't decide if I'll watch and root for them next year, as they'll have most of the 2015 St. Louis players, and Jeff Fisher is still the coach it would seem.

As for the teams who actually played yesterday, New England didn't really dominate Kansas City, but they did take a lead and refused to give it up. Green Bay tied the game on an amazing last-second Hail Mary pass, but promptly lost on the first possession in overtime without Aaron Rodgers getting a chance more more heroics. Thus, my picks when 0 for 2 yesterday.

Now let's see who I'm rooting for tomorrow to finish out the Conference Championship participants.

Seattle at Carolina:
If Carolina were undefeated, I would root for them automatically, for a chance to see the first team to ever go 19-0. Since the winner will play Arizona, I'm going to root for Seattle, to see one last hurrah from "my" division before I become more of an AFC West kinda guy. Although, if Green Bay had won last night, I might still have rooted for Seattle so that Green Bay would get to host. I'll have to do some digging and see if any conference championship has ever involved the #5 vs #6 seeds.

Pittsburgh at Denver:
I usually root for Pittsburgh, mostly because a good friend of mine is a Steelers fan. I've always liked Peyton Manning, though, so I'll be okay with either of these teams moving on to face the Patriots.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CAR	15-1	0.810	++	++	++	56.31	29.77	18.16
ARI	13-3	0.791	++	++	++	++	49.91	29.08
CIN	12-4	0.771	++	++	-	-	-	-
SEA	10-6	0.767	-	++	++	43.69	20.32	11.15
NE	12-4	0.762	++	++	++	++	60.97	27.83
KC	11-5	0.737	-	++	++	-	-	-
PIT	10-6	0.699	-	++	++	57.45	24.15	9.14
MIN	11-5	0.638	++	++	-	-	-	-
DEN	12-4	0.633	++	++	++	42.55	14.88	4.63
GB	10-6	0.596	-	++	++	-	-	-
HOU	9-7	0.559	++	++	-	-	-	-
WAS	9-7	0.518	++	++	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 16, Sunday)

First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Carolina (Week 14, Sunday)

First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: Carolina, Denver (Week 17, Final)

2016-01-15

eBay Wins #202

I've moved ahead two whole years since my last eBay post, from 1983 to 1985. The cheap cards I get tend to cluster around 87-91, so we're still looking at the tail of the distribution for you math geeks out there.

1985 Fleer
#200 Onix Concepcion
#453 Mike Jeffcoat

I realize that 85 and 93 aren't all that far apart, but it still makes me feel weird to see a guy on a card this old that played for the Marlins, like Mike Jeffcoat did. That's probably because the Marlins are still an expansion team in my mind, and these cards are before the time I started watching baseball, so my perception is of much time passing in that interval.

I don't know much about Onix Concepcion, except he appears to be a career backup, playing just 390 games over 7 seasons. 1985 was his biggest season, and also practically his last. He played 131 games and won a World Series ring, against the Cardinals. He only ever played one additional MLB game, for Pittsburgh in 1987.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	3393
Total Spent	$52.40
Per Card	1.544 cents
Change	-0.001 cents

2016-01-13

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Final

Alabama finished off with a win after taking over my #1 spot last week, and thus kept it by defeating #2 Clemson. There was only one other game since my last rankings, and that was the FCS title game, North Dakota State over Jacksonville State. That FCS game had the effect of dropping California from a tie for #34 to #35 alone, and bringing Middle Tennessee up one spot from #72 to #71, passing Kansas State. The Alabama win didn't change the #1 spot, but it did bring North Carolina ahead of Navy, up to #11.

What if LSU had won their canceled week 1 game against McNeese State?
North Carolina would gain another spot to pass TCU at #10. LSU would jump from #26 to #14. Mississippi State would gain one place to #29, and Auburn would pass Arkansas State to reach #49.

Like I've pointed out in years past, the playoff system virtually guarantees I'll rank the title game winner #1, and usually the loser #2, because their strength of schedule goes through the roof adding 2 extra games against top-4 teams. Alabama's raw score was over 18,400, while Clemson was around 16,800, and Stanford, who didn't get a playoff game, was third best at about 14,700. The very lowest raw score for an FBS team is UCF at about -3000, so clearly every position doesn't lose 1000+ points through the middle.

Through the season, I think the top of my rankings were relatively in agreement with the real people this year, with a little bit of variation as I would expect. I consider that a success, because it means that my system is at least reasonable. I have a few tweaks in mind I may implement next year, if I remember it before August. One is to consider strength of schedule even before games are played, inputting the full schedule at the beginning of the season, and filling in scores as we go. The result at the end of the season would be the same, since there would be no more "future games" at that point. This could give drastically different rankings early in the season, especially when bad teams in tough conferences start off 3-0 against FCS teams, but perhaps offer a little bit of a predictor of who has potential to move up as the season goes on.

The 2016 kickoff is less than 8 months away.

1	Alabama	14-1
2	Clemson	14-1
3	Stanford	12-2
4	Michigan State	12-2
5	Houston	13-1
6	Ohio State	12-1
7	Iowa	12-2
8	Oklahoma	11-2
9	Western Kentucky	12-2
10	TCU	11-2
11	North Carolina	11-3
12	Navy	11-2
13	Ole Miss	10-3
14	Northwestern	10-3
15	Utah	10-3
16	Michigan	10-3
17	San Diego State	11-3
18	Notre Dame	10-3
19	Oklahoma State	10-3
20	Florida State	10-3
21	Florida	10-4
22	Appalachian State	11-2
23	Georgia	10-3
24	Baylor	10-3
25	Toledo	10-2
26	LSU	9-3
27	Oregon	9-4
28	Wisconsin	10-3
29	Bowling Green	10-4
30	Mississippi State	9-4
31	Tennessee	9-4
32	Temple	10-4
33	Washington State	9-4
34	Arkansas	8-5
35	California	8-5
36	BYU	9-4
37	USC	8-6
38	Memphis	9-4
39	Marshall	10-3
40	Georgia Southern	9-4
41	Pittsburgh	8-5
42	Miami (FL)	8-5
43	Texas A&M	8-5
44	Louisiana Tech	9-4
45	UCLA	8-5
46	Boise State	9-4
47	West Virginia	8-5
48	Louisville	8-5
49	Arkansas State	9-4
50	Auburn	7-6
51	Western Michigan	8-5
52	Southern Mississippi	9-5
53	Ohio	8-5
54	South Florida	8-5
55	Washington	7-6
56	Duke	8-5
57	Texas Tech	7-6
58	Air Force	8-6
59	Penn State	7-6
60	Arizona	7-6
61	Northern Illinois	8-6
62	Cincinnati	7-6
63	Akron	8-5
64	NC State	7-6
65	Virginia Tech	7-6
66	Arizona State	6-7
67	Central Michigan	7-6
68	Nebraska	6-7
69	Minnesota	6-7
70	Utah State	6-7
71	Middle Tennessee	7-6
72	Kansas State	6-7
73	New Mexico	7-6
74	Nevada	7-6
75	Colorado State	7-6
76	Indiana	6-7
77	Connecticut	6-7
78	Illinois	5-7
79	San Jose State	6-7
80	Texas	5-7
81	Missouri	5-7
82	Tulsa	6-7
83	East Carolina	5-7
84	Georgia State	6-7
85	Kentucky	5-7
86	Virginia	4-8
87	South Alabama	5-7
88	Vanderbilt	4-8
89	Buffalo	5-7
90	Old Dominion	5-7
91	Florida Intl	5-7
92	Maryland	3-9
93	UTEP	5-7
94	Syracuse	4-8
95	Rutgers	4-8
96	Colorado	4-9
97	Georgia Tech	3-9
98	Iowa State	3-9
99	Rice	5-7
100	Troy	4-8
101	Idaho	4-8
102	South Carolina	3-9
103	Louisiana Lafayette	4-8
104	Wake Forest	3-9
105	Fresno State	3-9
106	Ball State	3-9
107	Boston College	3-9
108	Oregon State	2-10
109	Purdue	2-10
110	Texas State	3-9
111	Kent State	3-9
112	Florida Atlantic	3-9
113	UNLV	3-9
114	Miami (OH)	3-9
115	Texas San Antonio	3-9
116	New Mexico State	3-9
117	SMU	2-10
118	Tulane	3-9
119	Massachusetts	3-9
120	Hawaii	3-10
121	Wyoming	2-10
122	Army	2-10
123	Charlotte	2-10
124	North Texas	1-11
125	Louisiana Monroe	2-11
126	Kansas	0-12
127	Eastern Michigan	1-11
128	UCF	0-12

2015 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 Texas A&M
Week 3 Ohio State
Week 4 Northwestern
Week 5 Northwestern
Week 6 Florida
Week 7 Iowa
Week 8 Michigan State
Week 9 Clemson
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson
Week 14 Clemson
Week 15 Clemson
Week 16 Clemson
Week 17 Clemson
Week 18 Alabama

2016-01-11

Superbowl 50 Projection, Wildcard Sunday

Arizona over New England

Carolina lost their top-of-the-NFC position to Arizona without either team even playing. That's because Carolina got the worst possible matchup of the 3 teams they could have faced, Seattle. Even though Seattle is the 6th seed, they are a stronger team by my metric than Washington and Green Bay (and also Minnesota, who would have faced Arizona if they won). That leaves us in a position where the #1 seed is facing a much stronger team than the #2 seed, all because Green Bay held the tiebreaker over Seattle. If both home teams win, the NFC favorite position will go back to Carolina.

Now let's see who I'm rooting for this Saturday.

Kansas City at New England:
In the Matt Cassel bowl, I'll take my home-state Kansas City. They're actually not in terrible position according to my numbers, at 46.6%. Also, I'm a sore loser and the Patriots defeated the Rams in Superbowl XXXVI, so I usually root against them by default.

Green Bay at Arizona:
I like some players on both of these teams. I'll root for Green Bay, again because I'm a sore loser, and while the Cardinals split with the Rams this year, they also abandoned St. Louis much like the Rams are about to do. Go Pack Go.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CAR	15-1	0.810	+	+	+	56.32	33.14	20.56
ARI	13-3	0.791	+	+	+	71.98	35.93	21.31
SEA	10-6	0.767	-	+	+	43.68	23.08	12.91
NE	12-4	0.762	+	+	+	53.37	32.54	15.43
KC	11-5	0.737	-	+	+	46.63	26.92	11.88
PIT	10-6	0.699	-	+	+	57.44	25.05	9.94
DEN	12-4	0.633	+	+	+	42.56	15.50	5.09
GB	10-6	0.596	-	+	+	28.02	7.85	2.86

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 16, Sunday)

First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Carolina (Week 14, Sunday)

First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: Carolina, Denver (Week 17, Final)

2016-01-10

Superbowl 50 Projection, Wildcard Saturday

Carolina over New England

Welcome to a morning edition of your Superbowl 50 Projections, so I can take care of Saturday's action before Sunday's games are over.

In the early game, I picked Kansas City with 69% certainty over Houston, though I don't think I would have wagered on a 30-0 shutout. I should mention as always those projections don't take homefield into account, and they are based on an average of the team for the whole season, not the current injury list. That's important in the second game, where Cincinnati was the favorite at 59%. But that's based on the full season with Andy Dalton at QB for most of it. If I had a way to account for injuries, I'd say starting QB would probably be a pretty big one. I was rooting for Pittsburgh in spite of my numbers, so I'm happy with both outcomes from yesterday.

Now for my favorites in Sunday's games

Seattle at Minnesota:
I'll be rooting for Seattle in this one I think, though I wouldn't mind much if Minnesota makes the next round. I don't feel too strongly either way. Seattle is favored at 65%, again with the caveat that they'll be on the road, so that should come down a little.

Green Bay at Washingon:
Green Bay's one of those teams I've liked for a long time, before the Rams came to St. Louis, so I tend to root for them. They're also on the road and favored, which I think has been the case for the Vegas lines in all 4 games this weekend.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CAR	15-1	0.810	+	+	+	63.38	37.20	23.08
ARI	13-3	0.792	+	+	+	72.35	36.96	21.93
SEA	10-6	0.768	-	+	65.20	28.47	15.05	8.42
NE	12-4	0.762	+	+	+	53.36	32.53	15.51
KC	11-5	0.737	-	+	+	46.64	26.93	11.96
PIT	10-6	0.699	-	+	+	57.45	25.05	10.02
MIN	11-5	0.638	+	+	34.80	11.03	3.95	1.60
DEN	12-4	0.633	+	+	+	42.55	15.50	5.15
GB	10-6	0.596	-	+	57.93	15.77	4.70	1.71
WAS	9-7	0.518	+	+	42.07	8.99	2.13	0.63

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 16, Sunday)

First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Carolina (Week 14, Sunday)

First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: Carolina, Denver (Week 17, Final)

2016-01-08

Zistle Trade #22

As I've said before, my Zistle trades always seem to come in bunches. Here's the second in a rapid-fire group of 3 that were proposed to me.

2010 Topps - Peak Performance #PP-46 Rogers Hornsby

This card covers an interesting Cardinals fact I didn't know before, which is increasingly rare. Rogers Hornsby won the "1920s Triple Crown", that is, his 10-year totals for 1920-29 were better than anyone else in Home Runs, Batting Average, and RBIs. Another Cardinal, Albert Pujols, completed the feat for 2000-2009. The other two players to do so were Honus Wagner in the 1900s, and Ted Williams in the 1940s. Hornsby and Williams both won 2 single-season triple crowns during their decades of dominance, letting them slack off a little the other 8 years.

2011 Topps - Kimball Champions
#KC-41 Pablo Sandoval
#KC-45 David Ortiz
#KC-49 Jose Bautista

The end of 2010 was when I started collecting cards in earnest again, so 2011 was the first time I got to get excited about new set released. I immediately took a liking to the Kimball Champions set, and added them all to my want list. I haven't gotten very far, but this took 3 more off the list. After these three, all from Series 1, I still need 26/50 from Series 1, 44/50 from Series 2, and 45/50 from Update.

2016-01-06

Almost the Easiest Super Bowl Contest on the Web 6

I've submitted my winning entry for year 6 of Collector's Crack's great "Almost the Easiest Super Bowl Contest on the Web". But, I suppose you can go give it a shot, still. You've got until one hour before Saturday's Chiefs @ Texans kickoff.

After a stunning victory in year 4, in which I picked the winner, loser, points within 1, and turnovers, I suffered a bitter defeat in year 5. I had the participants, but picked Seattle to beat New England, which they may have if they had simply handed off to Marshawn Lynch at the end of the game. At that point I was already set to lose in the third tiebreaker, points scored, though, as Seattle over New England was a pretty popular pick last year.

Anyway, enough about me. Go enter here for a chance to win some as-yet-unannounced prizes.

2016-01-04

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 17, Final

Carolina over New England

This is a little unusual, but my AFC favorite is the second-best AFC team, according to my strength numbers. That's because New England has a bye into the next round, while Cincinnati is only 59.2% likely to make it there. In the NFC, Carolina is just barely favored over Arizona, because Arizona is in line for a weaker opponent. That's due to the rule of division winners being seeded above wildcards, so if, for example, Seattle and Washington advance, the much stronger Seattle team will play at Carolina, and Arizona will get division winner but barely-above-.500 Washington.

A few of the games went Indianapolis' way on Sunday, but they were several games short of winning the division, including Houston sealing it with a win.

As is tradition, not only do I project who should win each game, but I'll also tell you who I'm rooting for. Usually any tie is broken by me wanting to be right. Here are my picks for Saturday.

Kansas City at Houston:
Kansas City was my team before the Rams got here, and they could become my team again soon. Go Chiefs. Also, how many times will you hear the factoid that the Chiefs used to be the Dallas Texans, and now they're playing the Houston Texans, and isn't that crazy?! My guess is entirely too many.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati:
I like a good divisional matchup in the playoffs. These teams split the two regular season games, winning on the road and losing at home. I'll be rooting against my system for a repeat of that pattern. Go Steelers.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CAR	15-1	0.810	+	+	+	63.40	37.22	22.76
ARI	13-3	0.792	+	+	+	72.36	36.96	21.61
CIN	12-4	0.772	+	+	59.20	30.36	18.87	9.23
SEA	10-6	0.768	-	+	65.21	28.47	15.05	8.29
NE	12-4	0.762	+	+	+	52.94	32.27	15.39
KC	11-5	0.737	-	+	68.82	38.33	19.16	8.51
PIT	10-6	0.699	-	+	40.80	23.45	10.57	4.23
NYJ	10-6	0.651	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	11-5	0.638	+	+	34.79	11.03	3.95	1.57
DEN	12-4	0.633	+	+	+	43.49	15.56	5.16
GB	10-6	0.596	-	+	57.95	15.76	4.70	1.68
HOU	9-7	0.559	+	+	31.18	11.44	3.56	0.96
BUF	8-8	0.540	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	9-7	0.518	+	+	42.05	8.98	2.13	0.61
ATL	8-8	0.487	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	6-10	0.462	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	7-9	0.422	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	7-9	0.418	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	7-9	0.403	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	7-9	0.387	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	7-9	0.379	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	6-10	0.376	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	5-11	0.372	-	-	-	-	-	-
BAL	5-11	0.371	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	6-10	0.356	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	8-8	0.353	-	-	-	-	-	-
SD	4-12	0.342	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	6-10	0.336	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	4-12	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-13	0.261	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-13	0.211	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	5-11	0.189	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 16, Sunday)

First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Carolina (Week 14, Sunday)

First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: Carolina, Denver (Week 17, Final)