2019-11-14

July Card Show Autograph

Once again, I'm way behind here...this was July 2018.

Aaron Miles
In my mind it feels like Miles mostly played for Colorado, but the stats say otherwise. He had his real career start there, after a couple of games with the White Sox, but played just 2 seasons. Then he had 3 with the Cardinals, playing 130+ games each season 2006-2008, including the World Series winning year of 2006. He then left for the Cubs, but after 1 year there was traded in the offseason to Oakland, then Cincinnati, then released, before returning to the Cardinals for a season, getting released again, and playing another 130 games in his final season with the Dodgers.

Miles is also memorable as our blowout mop-up pitcher several times, taking the mound 5 times for a total of 5 innings, and only allowing 2 runs, for a respectable 3.60 ERA.

2019-11-12

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 10, Final

New England over San Francisco

San Francisco lost, and we have no more undefeated teams in the NFL this year. It was a divisional game too, so it gave their divisional chances quite a blow, down to 79.7% from 91.6%. Before Monday, I had San Francisco with a 4.5% chance of going undefeated. Now they are 7.1% likely to go 15-1, while New England is 12.2% likely to win the rest of their games to go 15-1. Just for fun, Cincinnati is 3.8% likely to go 0-16.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE8-10.75597.799.998.370.046.228.9
SF8-10.71979.798.590.258.136.719.9
BAL7-20.66888.597.085.951.724.412.8
MIN7-30.65529.886.760.532.716.87.9
GB8-20.59069.594.574.735.915.46.2
DAL5-40.64766.368.538.319.610.04.7
HOU6-30.58960.176.751.221.88.73.9
NO7-20.54775.682.952.421.88.53.1
KC6-40.57964.469.740.416.06.42.7
SEA8-20.53719.579.043.716.76.72.4
BUF6-30.5612.372.837.813.35.32.2
PIT5-40.52711.061.632.211.13.91.5
PHI5-40.52133.739.517.56.72.60.9
IND5-40.50226.036.317.15.51.80.6
LAR5-40.5690.815.17.73.21.40.5
CAR5-40.49423.428.612.14.31.50.5
OAK5-40.44126.538.415.94.31.20.4
TEN5-50.5149.918.18.72.81.00.4
LAC4-60.5307.89.14.31.40.50.2
JAC4-50.4704.114.05.81.60.50.2
CHI4-50.5130.74.52.10.80.30.1
CLE3-60.3970.54.21.50.30.10.0
DEN3-60.4451.32.20.90.20.10.0
TB3-60.4700.91.10.40.10.00.0
DET3-5-10.4630.10.90.40.10.00.0
ATL2-70.3800.10.10.00.00.00.0
ARI3-6-10.3940.00.00.00.00.00.0
NYG2-80.3490.00.00.00.00.00.0
NYJ2-70.2980.00.00.00.00.00.0
MIA2-70.2650.00.00.00.00.00.0
WAS1-80.2800.00.00.00.00.00.0
CIN0-90.292-0.00.00.00.00.0

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco

2019-11-11

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 10, Sunday

New England over San Francisco

New England had a bye this week, while San Francisco plays Monday, so nothing much interesting happened at the top. At the bottom, we've got our first elimination. Cincinnati is 0-9 and at best could tie Baltimore at 7-9, though they've already lost 2 games to them and would lose the head to head tiebreaker.

I've tried to put together a scenario with 3 or 4 teams tied at 7-9 that allows Cincinnati to win the division, but haven't found one. Forcing Baltimore and Cincinnati to 7-9 would make Cleveland 2-0 against Baltimore and 0-2 against Cincinnati, and all 3 teams would be .500 against each other, which is the first tiebreaker in a 3 or 4 team setup. Pittsburgh would be 1-1 against each team, so all 3 would also tie at .500 head to head. Since we're trying to find a situation where Cincinnati wins, we don't want Cleveland or Pittsburgh to be above or below them in any tiebreaker, or else it falls to the 2-team tiebreaker. So Cleveland has to split with Pittsburgh, and the whole division goes 3-3 against divisional opponents. That brings Pittsburgh to their 7th win, and they must lose the rest. That also give Cleveland 9 losses, so they must win the rest.

That brings us to common games, and while I didn't dig into all of them, Cincinnati has already lost to all 4 NFC West opponents and one AFC East opponent, and I believe there are 8 common games when talking about division rivals and ignoring divisional games which are already even once you're considering common games. Baltimore has already won 4 common games, 2 against the NFC West and 2 against the AFC East. So Cincinnati will fall out of the tiebreaker at that step.

Also, thanks to this exercise I found another bug in my code. This only happened when there were 4 teams tied for a division and they were also all 3-3 within the division, so a rare case to say the least.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE8-10.75597.799.998.370.046.128.9
SF8-00.71291.699.495.160.437.720.1
BAL7-20.66888.697.086.051.824.412.8
MIN7-30.65529.788.161.132.817.08.0
GB8-20.59069.595.675.336.415.56.3
DAL5-40.64766.269.739.520.010.24.7
HOU6-30.58960.176.751.221.88.73.9
NO7-20.54775.784.852.922.18.63.1
KC6-40.57964.469.740.416.06.42.7
BUF6-30.5612.372.837.813.35.32.2
SEA7-20.5317.962.231.011.54.61.6
PIT5-40.52710.961.632.211.13.91.5
PHI5-40.52133.841.318.47.02.70.9
LAR5-40.5690.520.110.14.01.80.7
IND5-40.50226.036.317.15.51.80.6
CAR5-40.49423.430.513.04.51.60.5
OAK5-40.44126.538.415.94.31.20.4
TEN5-50.5149.918.18.72.81.00.4
LAC4-60.5307.89.14.31.40.50.2
JAC4-50.4704.114.05.81.60.50.2
CHI4-50.5130.75.72.60.90.30.1
CLE3-60.3970.54.21.50.30.10.0
DEN3-60.4451.32.20.90.20.10.0
TB3-60.4710.91.30.50.20.10.0
DET3-5-10.4630.11.20.50.10.00.0
ARI3-6-10.3940.00.10.00.00.00.0
ATL2-70.3800.10.10.00.00.00.0
NYG2-80.3490.00.00.00.00.00.0
NYJ2-70.2980.00.00.00.00.00.0
MIA2-70.2650.00.00.00.00.00.0
WAS1-80.2800.00.00.00.00.00.0
CIN0-90.292-0.00.00.00.00.0

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco

2019-11-10

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 11

Clemson held onto the #1 spot, but LSU's win over a highly-ranked Alabama vaulted them up to the #2 spot, bumping Ohio State down to 4th. Former #3 Penn State also lost, dropping them out of playoff position and letting Minnesota wedge in at #4

Before this week there were 7 undefeated teams, and now there are 5, which is the most we could have had. Penn State lost to also-undefeated Minnesota, and Alabama also lost to a fellow undefeated team, LSU.

Missouri got shut out by Georgia, but fortunately for them this BCS-based system doesn't use the scores, only wins and losses. That dropped them from #60 to #68.

This week Rice and Akron had the week off while New Mexico lost their 9th game to remain winless, and Akron still holds the last rank.

1Clemson10-0
2LSU9-0
3Ohio State9-0
4Minnesota9-0
5Baylor9-0
6SMU9-1
7Oregon8-1
8Florida8-2
9Penn State8-1
10Boise State8-1
11Memphis8-1
12Georgia8-1
13Utah8-1
14Cincinnati8-1
15Alabama8-1
16Oklahoma8-1
17Appalachian State8-1
18Notre Dame7-2
19Auburn7-2
20Navy7-1
21Michigan7-2
22Louisiana Tech8-1
23Wisconsin7-2
24Air Force7-2
25UCF7-3
26Wake Forest7-2
27Virginia7-3
28Louisiana7-2
29San Diego State7-2
30Florida Atlantic7-3
31Oklahoma State6-3
32Kansas State6-3
33Washington6-4
34USC6-4
35Miami6-4
36Texas6-3
37Pittsburgh6-3
38Indiana7-2
39Hawai'i6-4
40Virginia Tech6-3
41Iowa6-3
42Texas A&M6-3
43Nevada6-4
44Temple6-3
45Georgia State6-3
46Louisville5-4
47Wyoming6-3
48Western Michigan6-4
49Tulane6-3
50Marshall6-3
51Southern Mississippi6-3
52BYU5-4
53Western Kentucky6-4
54Utah State5-4
55Toledo6-3
56Iowa State5-4
57Illinois6-4
58Florida State5-5
59Tennessee5-5
60Central Michigan6-4
61Miami (OH)5-4
62California5-4
63Arkansas State5-4
64Arizona State5-4
65Georgia Southern5-4
66UAB6-3
67Buffalo5-4
68Missouri5-4
69Liberty6-4
70Boston College5-5
71North Carolina4-5
72Mississippi State4-5
73TCU4-5
74Michigan State4-5
75Charlotte5-5
76Duke4-5
77Florida International5-5
78South Carolina4-6
79UCLA4-5
80South Florida4-5
81Eastern Michigan4-5
82Kentucky4-5
83Oregon State4-5
84UL Monroe4-5
85Fresno State4-5
86Stanford4-5
87Texas Tech4-5
88Arizona4-5
89Colorado4-6
90Ball State4-5
91Ole Miss4-6
92NC State4-5
93Ohio4-5
94Nebraska4-5
95Tulsa3-7
96Purdue4-6
97Coastal Carolina4-5
98Washington State4-5
99San Jose State4-6
100Troy4-5
101North Texas4-6
102West Virginia3-6
103Army4-6
104Texas State3-6
105Colorado State4-5
106Houston3-6
107UTSA4-5
108Syracuse3-6
109Maryland3-7
110Kent State3-6
111Kansas3-6
112Middle Tennessee3-6
113Bowling Green3-6
114East Carolina3-7
115Northern Illinois3-6
116Georgia Tech2-7
117Rutgers2-7
118Vanderbilt2-7
119New Mexico2-7
120Arkansas2-8
121UConn2-8
122UNLV2-7
123Northwestern1-8
124South Alabama1-8
125Old Dominion1-9
126UTEP1-8
127Rice0-9
128UMass1-9
129New Mexico State0-9
130Akron0-9


2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech
Week 3 Auburn
Week 4 Auburn
Week 5 Auburn
Week 6 Ohio State
Week 7 Ohio State
Week 8 Ohio State
Week 9 Ohio State
Week 10 Clemson

2019-11-08

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 10, Thursday

New England over San Francisco

Oakland upset the LA Chargers on a Thursday night game, but didn't really have an effect on anyone but each other. Even their division leader, Kansas City, barely moved, falling just slightly to 74.7% likely to win the AFC West. Oakland rose to 18.8% from 10.6%, and LA fell to 5.7% from 13.7%. Rounding out the division, Denver stayed just below 1%

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE8-10.75593.599.997.068.947.429.8
SF8-00.71291.399.394.359.737.420.5
BAL6-20.62187.093.273.439.316.98.1
DAL5-30.65175.078.747.925.012.96.2
MIN6-30.64829.572.846.724.312.45.9
NO7-10.58083.393.172.934.014.25.8
GB7-20.57368.886.558.526.711.04.4
HOU6-30.58954.376.952.023.69.74.3
KC6-30.58674.780.051.723.49.54.2
BUF6-20.5686.584.745.817.67.43.1
SEA7-20.5317.358.227.710.44.21.5
IND5-30.51037.655.329.710.93.71.4
LAR5-30.5751.333.416.36.73.01.2
PIT4-40.51512.443.421.97.72.71.0
CAR5-30.50916.635.817.46.42.30.8
PHI5-40.52124.934.415.25.82.20.8
OAK5-40.44118.833.414.04.11.20.4
TEN4-50.5084.69.74.61.50.50.2
LAC4-60.5305.77.63.51.20.50.2
JAC4-50.4703.512.45.11.50.50.2
DET3-4-10.4771.14.01.60.50.20.1
CHI3-50.4950.72.81.20.40.10.0
DEN3-60.4450.81.70.70.20.10.0
CLE2-60.3950.61.80.60.10.00.0
TB2-60.4660.10.40.20.10.00.0
ARI3-5-10.3990.00.40.10.00.00.0
NYG2-70.3590.10.10.00.00.00.0
ATL1-70.3620.00.00.00.00.00.0
NYJ1-70.2940.00.00.00.00.00.0
CIN0-80.3360.00.00.00.00.00.0
MIA1-70.2810.00.00.00.00.00.0
WAS1-80.2800.00.00.00.00.00.0

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco

2019-11-07

2019 World Series Projections Wrapup

I haven't done one of these wrapups for the past 2 seasons. I knew I got busy last year and didn't do it, but I was surprised to see 2017 missing as well. The graph shows the total chances of winning the world series for each team, during each day of the playoffs (minus the off days). Most teams gradually shrink away as their last series comes to a close, like St. Louis (in red) and Minnesota (in pink because I already used Red, White, and Navy), but you can see how favored LA (in blue) was right up until they lost the NLDS. And Washington didn't become a favorite until they were up 2-0 in the World Series.

Often this is where I muse about adding in homefield advantage next year for more accuracy, but we just had our first ever World Series with all 7 games won by road teams, so it feels slightly less important this time around.


Worst position for Washington: 3.52% on October 7, down 2-1 in the NLDS
Best position for Houston: 82.65% on October 28 up 3-2 in the World Series
Best position for an LCS loser: 30.85% for New York on October 13, up 1-0 in the ALCS
Best position for an LDS loser: 34.39% for Los Angeles on October 4, up 1-0 in the NLDS
Best position for a Wildcard loser: 4.36% for Oakland on October 2, after the NL wildcard game but before the AL wildcard game.

And the full playoff results for 2019:

Washington over Houston

World Series
WSH 4-3 HOU

League Championship Series
NYY 2-4 HOU
WSH 4-0 STL

Division Series
MIN 0-3 NYY
TB 2-3 HOU
STL 3-2 ATL
WSH 3-2 LA

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 OAK
MIL 0-1 WSH

Oct 1: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 2: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 3: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 4: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 5: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 6: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 9: Los Angeles over New York
Oct 10: New York over Washington
Oct 11: Houston over Washington
Oct 12: Houston over Washington
Oct 13: New York over Washington
Oct 14: Houston over Washington
Oct 15: Houston over Washington
Oct 16: Houston over Washington
Oct 18: Houston over Washington
Oct 19: Houston over Washington
Oct 20: Houston over Washington
Oct 23: Houston over Washington
Oct 24: Washington over Houston
Oct 26: Washington over Houston
Oct 27: Houston over Washington
Oct 28: Houston over Washington
Oct 30: Houston over Washington

2019-11-05

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 9, Final

New England over San Francisco

Dallas and New York didn't disrupt things much, as was expected. Dallas went from 66% to 75% likely to win their division, and New York dropped from 1% to almost 0%. Philadelphia dropped from 33% to 25% to compensate for the rest of the difference.

You might notice the Jets with no chance of winning their division in the table below. I've double checked that that's not the case, it just never happened in my 2 billion simulations, so it's looking pretty bleak for them.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE8-10.75593.5499.9096.9768.7747.2329.68
SF8-00.71291.3499.2794.3059.7237.4120.47
BAL6-20.62187.0293.3673.5839.3016.868.04
DAL5-30.65175.0378.7247.9025.0312.896.19
MIN6-30.64829.3772.7246.6524.2412.395.91
NO7-10.58083.2993.1372.9334.0214.205.81
GB7-20.57368.8486.4658.4226.6311.044.44
HOU6-30.58954.2977.2052.0923.519.634.28
KC6-30.58674.8279.6851.2823.229.394.14
BUF6-20.5686.4685.3245.8517.567.403.13
SEA7-20.5317.3458.2327.7210.414.171.52
IND5-30.51037.5955.8029.9310.933.701.36
LAR5-30.5751.3233.4416.306.723.001.21
PIT4-40.51512.3644.3822.227.802.781.04
CAR5-30.50916.5635.7717.406.412.320.80
PHI5-40.52124.8834.4515.265.792.220.79
LAC4-50.53613.6718.448.883.251.220.48
TEN4-50.5084.619.864.691.560.550.20
OAK4-40.43710.6119.958.072.290.660.20
JAC4-50.4703.5212.455.121.480.490.16
DET3-4-10.4771.094.061.650.540.190.06
CHI3-50.4950.702.821.170.400.150.05
DEN3-60.4450.901.810.700.190.060.02
CLE2-60.3950.611.830.620.150.040.01
TB2-60.4660.140.440.170.050.020.01
ARI3-5-10.3990.000.370.110.030.010.00
NYG2-70.3590.090.130.040.010.000.00
ATL1-70.3620.010.010.000.000.000.00
CIN0-80.3360.000.000.000.000.000.00
NYJ1-70.294-0.010.000.000.000.00
MIA1-70.2810.000.010.000.000.000.00
WAS1-80.2800.000.000.000.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco

2019-11-04

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 9, Sunday

New England over San Francisco

New England actually lost a game, and Miami actually won. That's the exact opposite of what I considered to be practically a given before Sunday. New England is still in control in the AFC of course, but they did dip down below a 30% chance of another Super Bowl title. We'll have to wait until at least week 10 for some eliminations to start now, because Monday night's participants Dallas and the New York Giants are only 2.5 games apart in a very weak NFC East.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE8-10.75593.5499.9097.0168.8047.2529.87
SF8-00.71291.3199.2894.5760.6038.3720.99
BAL6-20.62187.0293.3573.5339.2816.858.10
MIN6-30.64830.4073.5448.2925.3613.076.24
NO7-10.58083.2793.1273.4034.8514.676.00
GB7-20.57367.7486.1558.5127.0711.334.56
HOU6-30.58954.2877.1452.0523.499.624.31
DAL4-30.62365.7369.0639.3719.289.394.24
KC6-30.58674.8279.6751.2523.219.384.17
BUF6-20.5686.4685.6546.0317.637.423.17
SEA7-20.5317.3358.8628.8910.904.411.61
IND5-30.51037.5955.7529.9010.933.691.38
LAR5-30.5751.3634.4617.287.153.231.30
PIT4-40.51512.3644.3022.197.782.781.05
PHI5-40.52133.0840.0817.966.862.650.94
CAR5-30.50916.5836.0417.986.722.460.85
LAC4-50.53613.6718.428.873.241.220.48
TEN4-50.5084.619.854.681.550.550.20
OAK4-40.43710.6119.928.062.280.660.20
JAC4-50.4703.5212.405.101.470.480.16
DET3-4-10.4771.154.311.790.590.210.07
CHI3-50.4950.712.921.230.420.160.05
DEN3-60.4450.901.800.700.190.060.02
CLE2-60.3950.611.820.620.140.040.01
NYG2-60.3881.191.330.420.110.030.01
TB2-60.4660.140.450.170.050.020.01
ARI3-5-10.3990.000.380.120.030.010.00
ATL1-70.3620.010.010.000.000.000.00
CIN0-80.3360.000.000.000.000.000.00
NYJ1-70.2940.000.010.000.000.000.00
MIA1-70.2810.000.010.000.000.000.00
WAS1-80.2800.000.000.000.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco

2019-11-03

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 10

Clemson snuck in an FCS win while the 3 teams ahead of them - Ohio State, Penn State, and LSU - were on bye, and took the #1 slot. Oregon also won, and overtook LSU, booting them out of playoff position, despite being #1 in some other, inferior rankings. LSU faces Alabama next week, which will boost the strength of schedule for them both. We'll get our first official playoff committee rankings this week, and I suspect we'll only have 2 teams in common in the top 4, given the way the other polls are going.

We lost 2 undefeated teams this week, SMU and Appalachian state. Going undefeated was probably those teams' only chance at the playoff.

Missouri took another bye week to think about what they've done, dropping from #51 to #60

As is tradition, Rice and Akron lost, while New Mexico State was on bye, leaving all 3 teams winless and Akron at #130

1Clemson9-0
2Ohio State8-0
3Penn State8-0
4Oregon8-1
5LSU8-0
6Memphis8-1
7Minnesota8-0
8Utah8-1
9SMU8-1
10Alabama8-0
11Baylor8-0
12Florida7-2
13Auburn7-2
14Cincinnati7-1
15Georgia7-1
16UCF7-2
17Boise State7-1
18Navy7-1
19Michigan7-2
20Wake Forest7-1
21Oklahoma7-1
22Air Force7-2
23San Diego State7-1
24Appalachian State7-1
25Notre Dame6-2
26Kansas State6-2
27Oklahoma State6-3
28Wisconsin6-2
29Louisiana Tech7-1
30Pittsburgh6-3
31Indiana7-2
32Virginia6-3
33Iowa6-2
34Louisiana6-2
35Texas A&M6-3
36Georgia State6-2
37Louisville5-3
38Florida Atlantic6-3
39Tulane6-3
40Marshall6-3
41Wyoming6-2
42Iowa State5-3
43Washington5-4
44Miami5-4
45USC5-4
46Texas5-3
47Hawai'i5-4
48Arizona State5-3
49Georgia Southern5-3
50Central Michigan6-4
51Temple5-3
52Boston College5-4
53Virginia Tech5-3
54Western Michigan5-4
55Western Kentucky5-4
56Arkansas State5-4
57Liberty6-3
58UAB6-2
59Buffalo5-4
60Missouri5-3
61Nevada5-4
62Southern Mississippi5-3
63Toledo5-3
64Utah State4-4
65BYU4-4
66Illinois5-4
67Tennessee4-5
68Michigan State4-4
69North Carolina4-5
70Mississippi State4-5
71Florida State4-5
72TCU4-4
73Duke4-4
74Miami (OH)4-4
75California4-4
76Kentucky4-4
77Stanford4-4
78Florida International5-4
79Oregon State4-4
80UCLA4-5
81South Carolina4-5
82South Florida4-4
83Eastern Michigan4-5
84Fresno State4-4
85Ohio4-4
86Ball State4-4
87Washington State4-4
T-88NC State4-4
T-88Arizona4-5
90Charlotte4-5
91Coastal Carolina4-4
92West Virginia3-5
93Nebraska4-5
94San Jose State4-5
95North Texas4-5
96Texas Tech3-5
97Ole Miss3-6
98Houston3-6
99Syracuse3-6
100Colorado State4-5
101UL Monroe3-5
102Kent State3-5
103Colorado3-6
104Purdue3-6
105Middle Tennessee3-6
106Maryland3-6
107Kansas3-6
108Tulsa2-7
109East Carolina3-6
110Troy3-5
111Bowling Green3-6
112Army3-6
113UTSA3-5
114Texas State2-6
115Northern Illinois3-6
116Georgia Tech2-6
117Rutgers2-7
118Arkansas2-7
119Vanderbilt2-6
120New Mexico2-7
121UConn2-7
122UNLV2-7
123Northwestern1-7
124South Alabama1-7
125Old Dominion1-8
126UTEP1-7
127Rice0-9
128UMass1-8
129New Mexico State0-8
130Akron0-9


2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech
Week 3 Auburn
Week 4 Auburn
Week 5 Auburn
Week 6 Ohio State
Week 7 Ohio State
Week 8 Ohio State
Week 9 Ohio State

2019-11-01

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 9, Thursday

New England over San Francisco

San Francisco caught up to New England in record, though not quite in strength, at 8-0. Those two make up the most likely Super Bowl matchup by far at this point, at a little more than 2 in 11 chances, not quite 1 in 5. We're going to start having eliminations soon. Miami could easily be eliminated from winning the AFC East this week, with a loss and a New England win.

One column I don't generally show here, conference homefield advantage (i.e., the #1 seed), already has a few blank spots. I don't think it's technically impossible, just so unlikely my billions of simulations didn't hit any one of the scenarios on Cincinnati, Washington, Atlanta, or Miami being #1. Just to verify it, I was able to get to a place where 0-8 Cincinnati had a non-zero chance by forcing 21 games to go just the right way, such as New England and Cinncinati both going 8-8 due to a whole lot of blowouts, and dragging down Houston, Kansas City, and Buffalo by giving them big losses against their NFC opponents.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE8-00.74397.7299.9798.9670.5949.2230.17
SF8-00.71293.4699.3194.4359.9737.3721.08
MIN6-20.65129.0581.9054.0728.3814.587.25
GB7-10.59868.7891.8968.1833.0314.516.44
BAL5-20.59680.7086.3662.4432.6813.746.19
NO7-10.58088.6694.2670.9332.6113.655.83
DAL4-30.62374.7476.5942.1420.169.764.58
KC5-30.58076.7079.4851.0724.6110.114.39
IND5-20.51548.3969.4146.6219.156.652.47
HOU5-30.54427.0455.5134.8214.505.652.26
BUF5-20.5302.2878.0238.5113.865.652.19
LAR5-30.5751.5035.9217.727.263.211.35
SEA6-20.5225.0347.2421.737.923.081.15
JAC4-40.52215.0634.7719.337.292.751.04
PIT3-40.51115.4233.8617.946.812.480.92
TEN4-40.5349.5124.0713.485.122.020.79
PHI4-40.50623.8428.1011.684.181.540.55
CAR4-30.49110.6922.6710.063.471.210.42
LAC3-50.50011.1212.946.222.260.810.29
OAK3-40.42510.8216.447.022.110.620.18
DET3-3-10.4891.299.974.181.400.500.17
CHI3-40.5160.877.663.301.170.450.17
CLE2-50.4063.866.992.760.780.220.06
TB2-50.4750.652.470.950.300.100.03
DEN2-60.4311.372.000.800.230.070.02
NYG2-60.3891.401.540.470.120.030.01
ARI3-5-10.3990.000.450.140.030.010.00
NYJ1-60.3120.000.150.040.010.000.00
CIN0-80.3360.010.010.000.000.000.00
WAS1-70.3090.020.020.010.000.000.00
ATL1-70.3620.010.010.000.000.000.00
MIA0-70.2960.000.010.000.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco

2019-10-30

2019 World Series Projection, October 30

Houston over Washington

World Series
WSH 3-3 HOU

League Championship Series
NYY 2-4 HOU
WSH 4-0 STL

Division Series
MIN 0-3 NYY
TB 2-3 HOU
STL 3-2 ATL
WSH 3-2 LA

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 OAK
MIL 0-1 WSH

TeamStrengthWin
HOU0.667358.35
WSH0.588841.65

It all comes down to one final game. I've got Houston favored, though the road team has won every game so far. Apparently the record for road losses to start a series is 5, which has happened twice before (1906 and 1996) but then the game 6 winner won a home game to end the series. That's been worded carefully to say "to start" everywhere I've seen it, so I'm not sure if there has been a series with 6 road losses, or maybe more during the best-of-9 era.

Oct 1: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 2: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 3: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 4: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 5: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 6: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 9: Los Angeles over New York
Oct 10: New York over Washington
Oct 11: Houston over Washington
Oct 12: Houston over Washington
Oct 13: New York over Washington
Oct 14: Houston over Washington
Oct 15: Houston over Washington
Oct 16: Houston over Washington
Oct 18: Houston over Washington
Oct 19: Houston over Washington
Oct 20: Houston over Washington
Oct 23: Houston over Washington
Oct 24: Washington over Houston
Oct 26: Washington over Houston
Oct 27: Houston over Washington
Oct 28: Houston over Washington

2019-10-29

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 8, Final

New England over San Francisco

Miami was briefly not at the bottom of this chart, mostly because they had only played and lost 6 games to Cincinnati's 8, and Washington and Atlanta's 7 out of 8. We're comparing pretty small numbers though, so they're bound to fluctuate a little each week just due to the stochastic nature of what I'm doing here. But Miami lost again to drag themselves down to the bottom. They only lost by 13 though. They're going to have to let in some more points or lay off the scoring to truly challenge for the worst team ever. Miami's chances of winning the Superbowl currently sit at about 13 of every 100,000,000 simulations, while Cincinnati is about 4 times as likely to win.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE8-00.74397.7299.9798.9570.5949.2230.65
SF7-00.69790.0898.4691.5756.6234.3618.81
MIN6-20.65128.8381.8254.1928.8815.157.54
GB7-10.59869.0391.9568.8133.5015.166.72
BAL5-20.59680.9386.5562.6832.8313.806.35
NO7-10.58088.7894.3271.8733.2214.346.12
DAL4-30.62374.7376.5542.1920.6010.174.77
KC5-30.58076.6979.4851.0324.5710.104.48
IND5-20.51548.3969.4146.5719.126.642.53
HOU5-30.54427.0455.5134.7914.495.642.31
BUF5-20.5302.2878.0238.5113.865.652.24
LAR5-30.5752.5336.0418.047.683.431.45
SEA6-20.5227.3547.9022.558.533.361.25
JAC4-40.52215.0634.7619.317.282.751.07
PIT3-40.51115.2533.7317.866.772.470.93
TEN4-40.5349.5124.0713.485.112.020.81
PHI4-40.50623.8428.0411.644.281.610.58
CAR4-30.49110.5822.4910.013.531.260.43
LAC3-50.50011.1212.946.222.260.810.30
OAK3-40.42510.8216.447.022.110.610.19
DET3-3-10.4891.289.864.141.440.520.18
CHI3-40.5160.867.573.261.210.470.17
CLE2-50.4063.806.932.730.770.220.06
TB2-50.4750.632.410.930.300.110.03
DEN2-60.4311.372.000.800.230.070.02
NYG2-60.3891.401.530.470.120.030.01
ARI3-4-10.4040.041.040.330.090.030.01
NYJ1-60.3120.000.150.040.010.000.00
CIN0-80.3360.010.010.000.000.000.00
WAS1-70.3090.020.020.010.000.000.00
ATL1-70.3620.010.010.000.000.000.00
MIA0-70.2960.000.010.000.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 8, Sunday but for real this time

New England over San Francisco

I like watching football, and without a local team I'm no longer time-constrained, I just watch a noon game, a 3pm game, or maybe both. Yesterday happened to be a day I got to watch neither, and one of the approximately 50% of Sundays I don't get to watch the night game either. On those weeks I won't comment on the games themselves, since it feels a little disingenuous to just point out something cool I saw on Deadspin. So instead I just note whatever interesting facts come from the numbers.

I also still manually enter the scores into a file before running my numbers, which is prone to occasional errors. Earlier this year I gave Baltimore an extra 10 points over Pittsburgh, which wasn't terribly consequential. But for Sunday's games, I flipped the San Francisco and Carolina score, saw that New England was the only unbeaten team left in my output file and didn't even go look to see what happened, I just went with it. I owe a big thanks to Josh D. of Royals and Randoms for pointing out my error. Hopefully I would have caught it by Thursday since San Francisco will be playing the only game, but who knows?! Several years ago I put in some error checking that prints out the standings, points scored, and points allowed, but I have to convince myself to actually check it against a reliable source every week for it to work.

With all that said, here are the real numbers from Sunday, with Monday to follow later today, since my current results there are also wrong.

Everything I said about the NFC was wrong, and San Francisco is still in control. The Green Bay - Minnesota ordering is still somewhat interesting, with Green Bay, compared to Minnesota, being weaker, but more likely to make the Super Bowl, BUT less likely to win it. But the two of them combined are less likely to win the NFC than San Francisco.

I'll just copy and the AFC bit, because it still applies:
Of course in the AFC, New England is running away with it. The next best teams are 5-2, 3 wins and 2 losses behind. New England has almost a 1 in 3 shot of winning the Superbowl and we're not quite halfway through the season. For comparison, last year no team broke 29% until the Superbowl matchup was set, at which point someone has to be at least 50%. Also, it took until week 10 for anyone to hit a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs, which New England also did this week.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE8-00.74397.6399.9798.9270.6749.2630.67
SF7-00.69790.0298.4491.5456.6034.3318.79
MIN6-20.65128.8281.7654.1428.8515.147.53
GB7-10.59869.0391.9468.8033.4915.156.72
BAL5-20.59685.4289.1664.6433.9414.256.56
NO7-10.58088.7894.2971.8433.2014.336.11
DAL4-30.62375.0876.8542.3520.6810.214.78
KC5-30.58076.6779.6851.4024.7810.174.51
IND5-20.51548.4370.5147.3519.396.742.57
HOU5-30.54427.0256.9235.6214.785.772.36
BUF5-20.5302.3779.3639.2014.115.752.28
LAR5-30.5752.6036.5718.327.803.491.47
SEA6-20.5227.3347.7822.498.503.351.25
JAC4-40.52215.0635.7519.847.452.821.09
TEN4-40.5349.5025.2414.115.322.110.84
PHI4-40.50623.5227.6311.464.211.590.57
PIT2-40.48210.2923.2711.413.971.360.48
CAR4-30.49110.5822.419.973.521.260.43
LAC3-50.50011.1513.276.392.320.830.31
OAK3-40.42510.8116.897.212.160.630.19
DET3-3-10.4891.289.804.121.430.520.18
CHI3-40.5160.877.533.241.200.470.17
CLE2-50.4064.287.663.010.850.240.07
TB2-50.4750.632.400.930.300.100.03
DEN2-60.4311.372.080.830.240.070.02
NYG2-60.3891.371.490.460.120.030.01
ARI3-4-10.4040.041.080.340.090.030.01
NYJ1-60.3120.000.160.040.010.000.00
MIA0-60.3220.000.080.020.000.000.00
CIN0-80.3360.020.020.010.000.000.00
WAS1-70.3090.020.030.010.000.000.00
ATL1-70.3620.010.010.000.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco