2019-12-30

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 17, Final

Baltimore over San Francisco

The regular season is over and the playoffs are set. We had the biggest upset possible, with the best team losing to the worst, so Miami causes New England to play themselves out of a first round bye. Instead, Baltimore and Kansas City get the byes, and Baltimore becomes the new AFC favorite. In the NFC, San Francisco won their matchup against Seattle for the divison, and thus takes the #1 seed and a first round bye, along with Green Bay.

You can tell from the chart who I think will win, but who am I rooting for on Saturday?

Buffalo (65%) at Houston
Buffalo seems fun, let's root for them. I really don't feel a strong pull towards either team in this one. I do appreciate that in the AFC the seeds worked out "correctly", as Buffalo would be behind Houston head to head due to conference record. That's frequently not the case in these matchups of the best wildcard at the worst division winner since 2002.

Tennessee at New England (78%)
Tough call here, as during the Rams' time in St. Louis, these are the two teams they faced in Super Bowls. Since they beat Tennessee, I'm not nearly as bitter about that team I guess. Plus everyone's tired of New England winning all the time. So let's root for another road team.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL14-20.869++++++81.2248.4334.64
NE12-40.866++++78.3552.8129.0520.63
SF13-30.786++++++68.0445.5018.64
KC12-40.758++++++40.3215.518.49
GB13-30.634++++++50.6418.744.73
NO13-30.707++++49.9929.1313.494.28
MIN10-60.708-++50.0119.8312.273.89
BUF10-60.640-++65.2815.924.241.75
PHI9-70.562++++54.9518.826.151.25
TEN9-70.641-++21.654.591.930.80
SEA11-50.513-++45.0513.543.850.67
HOU10-60.486++++34.725.140.850.23
DAL8-80.712------
LAR9-70.559------
TB7-90.515------
LAC5-110.482------
IND7-90.476------
ATL7-90.466------
PIT8-80.465------
CHI8-80.454------
DEN7-90.416------
CLE6-100.383------
ARI5-10-10.353------
DET3-12-10.344------
NYJ7-90.313------
NYG4-120.302------
JAC6-100.302------
OAK7-90.295------
CAR5-110.275------
CIN2-140.227------
MIA5-110.193------
WAS3-130.187------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Final] New England over San Francisco

2019-12-29

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 18

We've had 2 semifinals, and the winners of each are at the top of the rankings. As a result, my end of year #1 should match the national champion. LSU had no issue winning their game, outscoring Oklahoma 21-7 in the first quarter, and 28-7 in the second. Clemson trailed Ohio State for a lot of the back-and-forth game, including from 11:46 to go until 1:49 to go, when they scored the final touchdown and 2 point conversion to go up by 6.

1Clemson14-0
2LSU14-0
3Ohio State13-1
4Appalachian State13-1
5Memphis12-2
6Oklahoma12-2
7Boise State12-2
8Oregon11-2
9Penn State11-2
10Notre Dame11-2
11Georgia11-2
12Utah11-2
13Baylor11-2
14Air Force11-2
15Florida Atlantic11-3
16Florida10-2
17Wisconsin10-3
18Cincinnati10-3
19Iowa10-3
20Navy10-2
21UCF10-3
22Minnesota10-2
23SMU10-3
24Hawai'i10-5
25Alabama10-2
26San Diego State10-3
27Auburn9-3
28Louisiana10-3
29Michigan9-3
30Virginia9-4
31Louisiana Tech10-3
32Washington8-5
33USC8-5
34Kansas State8-4
35Pittsburgh8-5
36Oklahoma State8-5
37Wake Forest8-5
38Marshall8-5
39Virginia Tech8-4
40Miami (OH)8-5
41Texas A&M8-5
42Western Kentucky8-4
43Buffalo8-5
44Arkansas State8-5
45UAB9-5
46Louisville7-5
47Temple8-5
48Iowa State7-6
49Central Michigan8-6
50Tennessee7-5
51Arizona State7-5
52Texas7-5
53BYU7-6
54Indiana8-4
55Utah State7-6
56North Carolina7-6
57California7-5
58Western Michigan7-5
59Kentucky7-5
60Michigan State7-6
61Kent State7-6
62Georgia Southern7-6
63Southern Mississippi7-5
64Liberty8-5
65Georgia State7-5
66Wyoming7-5
67Nevada7-5
68Florida State6-6
69Mississippi State6-6
70Miami6-7
71Charlotte7-6
72Boston College6-6
73Tulane6-6
74Missouri6-6
75Eastern Michigan6-7
76Toledo6-6
77Ohio6-6
78Washington State6-7
79Duke5-7
80Illinois6-6
81West Virginia5-7
82Florida International6-7
83TCU5-7
84Oregon State5-7
85UL Monroe5-7
86Syracuse5-7
87Colorado5-7
88Ball State5-7
89Northern Illinois5-7
90South Carolina4-8
91Nebraska5-7
92Troy5-7
93Coastal Carolina5-7
94Tulsa4-8
95San Jose State5-7
96South Florida4-8
97UCLA4-8
98Army5-8
99Houston4-8
100Fresno State4-8
101Stanford4-8
102Arizona4-8
103Ole Miss4-8
104Texas Tech4-8
105Purdue4-8
106NC State4-8
107Middle Tennessee4-8
108UNLV4-8
109Colorado State4-8
110East Carolina4-8
111Georgia Tech3-9
112UTSA4-8
113North Texas4-8
114Texas State3-9
115Kansas3-9
116Bowling Green3-9
117Maryland3-9
118Northwestern3-9
119Vanderbilt3-9
120Rice3-9
121Rutgers2-10
122New Mexico2-10
123Arkansas2-10
124South Alabama2-10
125New Mexico State2-10
126UConn2-10
127Old Dominion1-11
128UTEP1-11
129UMass1-11
130Akron0-12

2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech
Week 3 Auburn
Week 4 Auburn
Week 5 Auburn
Week 6 Ohio State
Week 7 Ohio State
Week 8 Ohio State
Week 9 Ohio State
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson
Week 14 Ohio State
Week 15 Ohio State
Week 16 Ohio State
Week 17 Ohio State

2019-12-24

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 16, Final

New England over San Francisco

There's only one gameday left in the regular season, with all of the week 17 games placed on Sunday either for some perceived sense of fairness, or just to maximize the potential for fast-paced playoff changes.

No one was eliminated Monday, but Green Bay locked up the NFC North (and locked Minnesota into the second wildcard I believe). That leaves just 2 divisions unclaimed, the stubborn NFC East that no one wants to win and may send an 8-8 team to the playoffs, and the West, whose winner will have at least 12 wins and possibly be the #1 seed. Since San Francisco is playing Seattle for that spot in week 17, they get the prime time game. All the first round byes except for Baltimore's are still up for grabs. In the AFC the other will be either New England or Kansas City, and in the NFC it will be some combination of Seattle, San Francisco, New Orleans, and Green Bay.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE12-30.864++++99.572.843.931.8
BAL13-20.840++++++77.439.827.2
SF12-30.77575.9++93.361.140.916.8
MIN10-50.708-++59.127.215.75.2
KC11-40.741++++68.721.79.04.9
GB12-30.627++++88.644.417.34.5
NO12-30.654++++64.933.814.64.1
BUF10-50.652-++60.115.24.42.0
DAL7-80.66026.626.615.27.13.20.9
SEA11-40.52224.1++46.315.34.80.9
PHI8-70.52973.473.432.611.03.50.7
TEN8-70.601-66.623.25.21.30.5
HOU10-50.527++++39.36.51.30.4
PIT8-70.510-23.67.51.20.20.1
OAK7-80.302-9.81.70.10.00.0
LAR8-70.546------
TB7-80.525------
IND7-80.512------
LAC5-100.504------
ATL6-90.454------
CHI7-80.448------
DEN6-90.414------
CLE6-90.401------
ARI5-9-10.365------
DET3-11-10.351------
NYG4-110.331------
CAR5-100.326------
NYJ6-90.306------
JAC5-100.267------
WAS3-120.230------
CIN1-140.212------
MIA4-110.194------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Sunday] New England over San Francisco

2019-12-23

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 16, Sunday

New England over San Francisco

Baltimore is the first team to clinch a bye, and also locked up the #1 seed. It seems like there's a weird power imbalance this year, though it probably happens to some degree every year. The current #1 team in the NFC still haven't clinched their division. The Baltimore win came at the expense of Cleveland, who were also finally eliminated. We're down to 2 unclinched playoff spots, Dallas vs Philadelphia for the NFC East, and the second wildcard in the AFC, which will go to Tennessee, Pittsburgh, or Oakland. All AFC divisions have been clinched, but the seeding could still change for 3 of the 4 winners. I specifically track the chances of getting the #1 seed; I suppose I should do so for at least 2-6 as well.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE12-30.864++++99.572.843.931.6
BAL13-20.840++++++77.439.827.1
SF12-30.77575.9++93.061.840.816.7
MIN10-40.72412.9++64.833.719.16.7
NO12-30.654++++81.541.917.95.0
KC11-40.741++++68.721.79.04.9
GB11-30.59987.1++65.029.610.72.6
BUF10-50.652-++60.115.24.42.0
SEA11-40.52224.1++53.116.65.31.0
DAL7-80.66026.626.613.86.53.00.8
PHI8-70.52973.473.428.89.93.20.6
TEN8-70.601-66.623.25.21.30.5
HOU10-50.527++++39.36.51.30.4
PIT8-70.510-23.67.51.20.20.1
OAK7-80.302-9.81.70.10.00.0
LAR8-70.546------
TB7-80.525------
IND7-80.512------
LAC5-100.504------
ATL6-90.454------
CHI7-80.448------
CLE6-90.420------
DEN6-90.414------
DET3-11-10.351------
ARI5-9-10.346------
NYG4-110.331------
CAR5-100.326------
NYJ6-90.306------
JAC5-100.267------
WAS3-120.230------
CIN1-140.212------
MIA4-110.194------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over San Francisco

2019-12-22

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 17

Just for fun, I like to continue the weekly rankings through bowl season. There were only 8 FBS Bowl games on Friday and Saturday, along with the FCS Semifinals and Celebration Bowl, and the Division 2 and Division 3 championship, so a total of 13 games. Usually the early bowls feature a lot of 6-6 and 7-5 teams, so nothing big changes at the top, but I've actually got Oklahoma down at #6 now, having been passed by Appalachian State and Memphis. Appalachian State won their bowl game against UAB, but Memphis hasn't played yet, so that one's a little more mysterious. As far as I can tell, the key for them was Arkansas State winning against Florida International. That raised the two team's common opponents up just enough to give Memphis the edge. Specifically, leaving out that game lowers UL Monroe by 2 spots, and Southern Alabama by 1. Memphis and Oklahoma were already extremely close in my rankings, and that small change put Memphis ahead.

1Ohio State13-0
2LSU13-0
3Clemson13-0
4Appalachian State13-1
5Memphis12-1
6Oklahoma12-1
7Boise State12-2
8Oregon11-2
9Georgia11-2
10Utah11-2
11Baylor11-2
12Florida Atlantic11-3
13Florida10-2
14Notre Dame10-2
15Penn State10-2
16Wisconsin10-3
17Cincinnati10-3
18Navy10-2
19SMU10-3
20Air Force10-2
21Minnesota10-2
22Alabama10-2
23San Diego State10-3
24Auburn9-3
25Louisiana10-3
26Michigan9-3
27Iowa9-3
28Virginia9-4
29UCF9-3
30Hawai'i9-5
31Washington8-5
32USC8-4
33Kansas State8-4
34Oklahoma State8-4
35Wake Forest8-4
36Louisiana Tech9-3
37Marshall8-4
38Miami (OH)8-5
39Western Kentucky8-4
40Buffalo8-5
41Virginia Tech8-4
42Temple8-4
43Arkansas State8-5
44UAB9-5
45Louisville7-5
46Iowa State7-5
47Central Michigan8-6
48Tennessee7-5
49Texas7-5
50Arizona State7-5
51BYU7-5
52Pittsburgh7-5
53Utah State7-6
54Indiana8-4
55California7-5
56Kentucky7-5
57Western Michigan7-5
58Kent State7-6
59Georgia Southern7-6
60Texas A&M7-5
61Liberty8-5
62Southern Mississippi7-5
63Georgia State7-5
64Wyoming7-5
65Nevada7-5
66Florida State6-6
67Mississippi State6-6
68Miami6-6
69North Carolina6-6
70Charlotte7-6
71Michigan State6-6
72Boston College6-6
73Tulane6-6
74Missouri6-6
75Eastern Michigan6-6
76Toledo6-6
77Ohio6-6
78Washington State6-6
79Duke5-7
80West Virginia5-7
81Illinois6-6
82Florida International6-7
83TCU5-7
84Oregon State5-7
85UL Monroe5-7
86Colorado5-7
87Syracuse5-7
88Ball State5-7
89Northern Illinois5-7
90Nebraska5-7
91South Carolina4-8
92Troy5-7
93Coastal Carolina5-7
94Tulsa4-8
95South Florida4-8
96UCLA4-8
97San Jose State5-7
98Army5-8
99Houston4-8
100Fresno State4-8
101Stanford4-8
102Arizona4-8
103Texas Tech4-8
104Ole Miss4-8
105Purdue4-8
106NC State4-8
107Middle Tennessee4-8
108UNLV4-8
109Colorado State4-8
110East Carolina4-8
111North Texas4-8
112UTSA4-8
113Georgia Tech3-9
114Texas State3-9
115Kansas3-9
116Bowling Green3-9
117Maryland3-9
118Vanderbilt3-9
119Northwestern3-9
120Rice3-9
121Rutgers2-10
122New Mexico2-10
123South Alabama2-10
124Arkansas2-10
125New Mexico State2-10
126UConn2-10
127Old Dominion1-11
128UTEP1-11
129UMass1-11
130Akron0-12

2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech
Week 3 Auburn
Week 4 Auburn
Week 5 Auburn
Week 6 Ohio State
Week 7 Ohio State
Week 8 Ohio State
Week 9 Ohio State
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson
Week 14 Ohio State
Week 15 Ohio State
Week 16 Ohio State

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 16, Saturday

New England over San Francisco

It seems like everyone complains about Thursday football, including me sometimes, yet I get used to it and miss it late in the season. To placate us a little, we got 3 Saturday games this week - Houston defeated Tampa, New England beat Buffalo, and San Francisco beat the LA Rams with a field goal as the clock ran out. That eliminates LA from the NFC playoffs, and puts Minnesota in. With 5 teams in, the the only spot left to determine is the winner of the NFC East, between Dallas and Philadelphia. Seeding is also up for grabs, as no one has clinched a first round bye in either conference yet, and the NFC West and North can still be won by either of two teams, with the other becoming a wildcard.

In the AFC, New England clinched the East, eliminating Buffalo, while Houston clinched the South, eliminating Tennessee. Buffalo is a wildcard though, and Tennessee is currently the most likely to become the other, with Pittsburgh giving them some competition, and Cleveland and Oakland barely hanging on.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE12-30.864++++99.776.849.535.7
BAL12-20.815++++99.773.334.822.5
SF12-30.77574.0++91.558.939.016.7
MIN10-40.72412.9++63.032.318.46.7
NO11-30.640++++75.037.615.34.3
KC10-40.699++++60.817.16.73.3
DAL7-70.66974.974.941.320.39.32.9
GB11-30.59987.1++63.528.710.52.6
BUF10-50.652-++57.815.64.92.2
SEA11-30.54726.0++55.718.86.51.4
TEN8-60.624-58.525.77.01.90.8
HOU10-50.527++++40.06.91.50.5
PIT8-60.525-41.216.23.20.60.2
PHI7-70.51225.125.19.93.41.00.2
CLE6-80.453-0.20.10.00.00.0
OAK6-80.293-0.20.00.00.00.0
LAR8-70.546------
TB7-80.525------
LAC5-90.520------
CHI7-70.508------
IND6-80.446------
ATL5-90.433------
DEN5-90.390------
CAR5-90.382------
DET3-10-10.370------
ARI4-9-10.325------
NYG3-110.316------
NYJ5-90.301------
JAC5-90.292------
WAS3-110.231------
CIN1-130.211------
MIA3-110.190------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Final] New England over San Francisco

2019-12-17

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 15, Final

New England over San Francisco

New Orleans beat Indianapolis, eliminating them from the playoffs. We now have 15 teams - almost half - that are out, and still just 8 in. That leaves 9 teams fighting for 4 spots.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE11-30.84799.1++97.171.143.530.3
BAL12-20.815++++99.872.937.424.3
SF11-30.77171.7++89.958.038.117.0
MIN10-40.72412.998.061.532.618.47.2
NO11-30.640++++76.537.615.64.8
KC10-40.699++++67.021.28.54.2
DAL7-70.66974.974.941.120.39.43.1
BUF10-40.6680.9++60.618.46.32.9
GB11-30.59987.1++63.528.310.62.9
SEA11-30.54728.3++57.019.46.71.6
TEN8-60.62414.861.025.87.02.10.9
HOU9-50.52185.297.935.56.71.50.5
PHI7-70.51225.125.19.73.31.00.2
PIT8-60.525-40.814.12.80.60.2
LAR8-60.553-2.00.80.30.10.0
CLE6-80.453-0.20.10.00.00.0
OAK6-80.294-0.10.00.00.00.0
TB7-70.529------
LAC5-90.520------
CHI7-70.508------
IND6-80.446------
ATL5-90.433------
DEN5-90.390------
CAR5-90.382------
DET3-10-10.370------
ARI4-9-10.325------
NYG3-110.316------
NYJ5-90.301------
JAC5-90.292------
WAS3-110.231------
CIN1-130.211------
MIA3-110.190------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over San Francisco

2019-12-16

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 15, Sunday

New England over San Francisco

There were only 3 spots clinched before Sunday, and all were division winners. New England, San Francisco, Green Bay, Buffalo, and Seattle all clinched at least wildcard berths. Seattle is actually leading the NFC West, although they still have to face San Francisco and are not favored by my numbers to win it. New England also regained their AFC lead, at least for now.

We had 12 teams completely out, and now there are 14. Denver and Chicago both joined the group with a divisional loss. The LA Rams joined Indianapolis, Cleveland, and Oakland on the brink of elimination, all 4 of whom are under 5.5% likely to make the playoffs. Indianapolis still will play on Monday.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE11-30.84799.1++97.271.143.530.4
BAL12-20.815++++99.873.037.524.4
SF11-30.77170.5++90.058.339.017.4
MIN10-40.72412.998.064.334.719.97.7
KC10-40.699++++67.521.38.54.3
GB11-30.59987.1++71.233.212.33.3
DAL7-70.66974.974.940.920.99.83.2
BUF10-40.6680.9++60.518.46.32.9
NO10-30.590++++65.029.010.62.8
SEA11-30.54729.5++58.120.07.11.7
TEN8-60.62416.455.123.56.31.90.8
HOU9-50.52181.094.734.46.51.50.5
PHI7-70.51225.125.19.63.51.10.2
PIT8-60.525-44.315.23.00.70.2
LAR8-60.553-2.00.90.40.10.0
IND6-70.5022.65.41.80.30.10.0
CLE6-80.453-0.20.10.00.00.0
OAK6-80.294-0.20.00.00.00.0
TB7-70.529------
LAC5-90.520------
CHI7-70.508------
ATL5-90.433------
DEN5-90.390------
CAR5-90.382------
DET3-10-10.370------
ARI4-9-10.325------
NYG3-110.316------
NYJ5-90.301------
JAC5-90.292------
WAS3-110.231------
CIN1-130.211------
MIA3-110.190------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco

2019-12-15

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 16

This week, there was only one FBS game, in which Navy defeated Army. We also had 4 quarterfinals in the FCS, and 4 semifinals in Division 2 and 3. My top 13 teams didn't change, so no one of real consequence (that is, the top 4) moved around. I've been saying it for years, but I really want Army or Navy to contend for the playoff one year and see how the committee handles that. Navy was #23 this year, so it's not impossible one of them could get up to at least #4.

Anyway, with the win, Navy jumped from #25 to #17, but also Penn State passed Wisconsin at #14, Minnesota fell behind SMU and Air Force to #20, Arizona State passed Utah State to reach #48, and California and Western Michigan jumped over Georgia Southern, which fell to #56. Even in the triple digits a few teams swapped. East Carolina gained #109 over Colorado State, and Georgia Tech passed UTSA at #112. Most of those were direct Army or Navy opponents, but a few of them I can't quite find the path that likely caused the change.

1Ohio State13-0
2LSU13-0
3Clemson13-0
4Oklahoma12-1
5Memphis12-1
6Boise State12-1
7Appalachian State12-1
8Oregon11-2
9Georgia11-2
10Utah11-2
11Baylor11-2
12Florida10-2
13Notre Dame10-2
14Penn State10-2
15Wisconsin10-3
16Cincinnati10-3
17Navy10-2
18SMU10-2
19Air Force10-2
20Minnesota10-2
21Alabama10-2
22Florida Atlantic10-3
23Auburn9-3
24Louisiana10-3
25Michigan9-3
26Iowa9-3
27Virginia9-4
28UCF9-3
29Hawai'i9-5
30San Diego State9-3
31USC8-4
32Kansas State8-4
33Oklahoma State8-4
34Wake Forest8-4
35Louisiana Tech9-3
36Marshall8-4
37Western Kentucky8-4
38Virginia Tech8-4
39Miami (OH)8-5
40Temple8-4
41UAB9-4
42Louisville7-5
43Iowa State7-5
44Tennessee7-5
45Central Michigan8-5
46Texas7-5
47Washington7-5
48Arizona State7-5
49Utah State7-5
50Pittsburgh7-5
51BYU7-5
52Indiana8-4
53Kentucky7-5
54California7-5
55Western Michigan7-5
56Georgia Southern7-5
57Texas A&M7-5
58Buffalo7-5
59Southern Mississippi7-5
60Arkansas State7-5
61Georgia State7-5
62Wyoming7-5
63Nevada7-5
64Florida State6-6
65Mississippi State6-6
66Miami6-6
67Charlotte7-5
68North Carolina6-6
69Michigan State6-6
70Boston College6-6
71Kent State6-6
72Tulane6-6
73Liberty7-5
74Missouri6-6
75Eastern Michigan6-6
76Toledo6-6
77Ohio6-6
78Washington State6-6
79Florida International6-6
80Duke5-7
81West Virginia5-7
82Illinois6-6
83TCU5-7
84Oregon State5-7
85UL Monroe5-7
86Syracuse5-7
87Colorado5-7
88Ball State5-7
89Northern Illinois5-7
90Nebraska5-7
91South Carolina4-8
92Troy5-7
93Coastal Carolina5-7
94Tulsa4-8
95South Florida4-8
96San Jose State5-7
97UCLA4-8
98Army5-8
99Houston4-8
100Fresno State4-8
101Texas Tech4-8
102Stanford4-8
103Ole Miss4-8
104Arizona4-8
105Purdue4-8
106NC State4-8
107Middle Tennessee4-8
108UNLV4-8
109East Carolina4-8
110Colorado State4-8
111North Texas4-8
112Georgia Tech3-9
113UTSA4-8
114Kansas3-9
115Texas State3-9
116Bowling Green3-9
117Maryland3-9
118Vanderbilt3-9
119Northwestern3-9
120Rice3-9
121Rutgers2-10
122New Mexico2-10
123Arkansas2-10
124South Alabama2-10
125UConn2-10
126New Mexico State2-10
127Old Dominion1-11
128UTEP1-11
129UMass1-11
130Akron0-12

2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech
Week 3 Auburn
Week 4 Auburn
Week 5 Auburn
Week 6 Ohio State
Week 7 Ohio State
Week 8 Ohio State
Week 9 Ohio State
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson
Week 14 Ohio State
Week 15 Ohio State