2019-05-24

May Card Show Autograph

May 2018, that is. I'm going to get caught up on everything I want to post one of these days; at least I keep telling myself that. Anyway, today's autograph is Lindy McDaniel.

Lindy McDaniel
#41
Lindy played for the Cardinals from 1955-1962, starting at the age of 19. He had his best season in 1960, earning a Save in one of the 2 All-Star games, and a Cy Young vote, finishing third. He continued with other teams all the way through 1975, his age 39 season.

2019-05-22

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 22

Boston over St. Louis

Stanley Cup Final
BOS 0-0 STL

Round 3
STL 4-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthCup
BOS0.59260.6
STL0.55139.4

I never felt like this day would come, but St. Louis is in the Stanley Cup Final. They're playing a stronger team and don't have home ice, but a 60/40 chance really isn't all that bad. They'll have 5 off days to recuperate, compared against Boston's 10, with the series starting on Monday night.

2019-05-20

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 20

Boston over St. Louis

Round 3
STL 3-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
BOS0.592100.060.6
STL0.55175.329.7
SJS0.55124.79.7


St. Louis won 5-0 to go up 3-2 in the series. They're now just about 75% likely to make the final. That's because they'll be approximately 50% likely to win in game 6, and the remaining 25% comes from their roughly 50% chance to win game 7 combined with the 50% chance of losing game 6. The series resumes Tuesday back in St. Louis.

2019-05-18

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 18

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 2-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
BOS0.592100.060.6
SJS0.55152.520.7
STL0.55147.518.7


The Western Conference finals are back to even, but unlike when it was 1-1, San Jose now has home ice advantage again (1 of the next 2 plus game 7), and so they are favored this time, just like they were at 0-0. A 52.5% advantage is still pretty close though, like flipping an almost-fair coin, or, more exactly, rolling a 40 sided die and having 21 chances to win but 19 chances to lose.

2019-05-17

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 17

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 1-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
BOS0.592100.060.6
SJS0.55168.927.1
STL0.55131.112.3


Boston finished their 4-0 sweep with a 4-0 win, and now waits for at least 2 more games to be played in the West before the final can be scheduled. Their chances to win will stay right about that 60.6% listed, because their potential opponents have nearly identical strengths and Boston will have home ice advantage, having earned 107 regular season points to the 101 and 99 of San Jose and St. Louis. That Western Conference series resumes tonight.

2019-05-16

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 16

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 1-2 SJS
CAR 0-3 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
BOS0.59295.858.1
SJS0.55168.927.5
STL0.55131.112.4
CAR0.5474.22.0


San Jose took a 2-1 lead with just a little bit of controversy with a goal off an apparent hand pass in overtime. Luckily it wasn't game 7, so that mistake may be forgotten by the time their series is over. Tonight, Boston tries to complete the sweep. If they do, they could finish a full week before the Western Conference champ, giving them an extra 7 days of rest and/or rust before the final.

2019-05-15

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 15

Boston over St. Louis

Round 3
STL 1-1 SJS
CAR 0-3 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
BOS0.59295.858.1
STL0.55151.920.7
SJS0.55148.119.2
CAR0.5474.22.1


Boston is up 3-0 and over 95% likely to make it to the final now. That series could end with the Western Conference finals at 2-1, giving a whole lot of rest to Boston. But, we won't get ahead of ourselves; Carolina could still come back and win 4 games in a row. Tonight, St. Louis and San Jose resume and break their 1-1 tie.

2019-05-14

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 14

Boston over St. Louis

Round 3
STL 1-1 SJS
CAR 0-2 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
BOS0.59285.551.8
STL0.55151.921.2
SJS0.55148.119.8
CAR0.54714.57.1


St. Louis tied the series, and now effectively have home ice advantage in a best of 5 series. That tips things just slightly in their favor, but still pretty close to a coin toss. Tonight, Boston and Carolina play game 3.

2019-05-13

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 13

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 0-1 SJS
CAR 0-2 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
BOS0.59285.551.8
SJS0.55165.727.1
STL0.55134.314.0
CAR0.54714.57.0


Boston won again, going up 6-0 before allowing 2 goals to make the final score not look so lopsided. But a win's a win, and they are up 2-0, giving them about a 6 in 7 chance of winning the series. Imagine Carolina's 1 in 7 as a little worse than rolling a single die once and needing a six to win. We'll have a game every day at least through Friday, longer if we avoid sweeps, so St. Louis and San Jose resume today.

2019-05-12

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 12

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 0-1 SJS
CAR 0-1 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
BOS0.59273.844.7
SJS0.55165.728.1
STL0.55134.314.4
CAR0.54726.212.7


San Jose beat St. Louis handily in game 1, which gives about a 2/3 chance of winning the series. Boston and Carolina resume today, and there's not much else to say.

2019-05-10

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 10

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 0-0 SJS
CAR 0-1 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
BOS0.59273.844.7
SJS0.55151.522.1
STL0.55148.520.4
CAR0.54726.212.8


Boston won game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals, and solidified their position as the most favored team. There's an off day today, with games resuming Saturday for the start of the Western Conference finals.

2019-05-09

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 9

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 0-0 SJS
CAR 0-0 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
BOS0.59261.437.2
SJS0.55151.522.9
STL0.55148.521.0
CAR0.54738.618.9


We're down to 4 teams, and the projections should quit violently moving back and forth, although I guess a back-and-forth series could result in just that.

I was messing around with my program today to investigate how low home ice would need to be in order to make St. Louis the favored team in the West. Their strength is just barely higher than San Jose, but I assume a 55% home ice advantage per game, thus the series favors San Jose at the moment. As it turns out, somewhere between 50.116% and 50.117% is where the home ice advantage flips the series to San Jose.

Even though we just finished one round, the next round starts today - no breaks! Boston takes on Carolina to start things off.

2019-05-08

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 8

Boston over St. Louis

Round 2
COL 3-3 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
BOS0.592100.061.437.8
STL0.551100.052.022.5
CAR0.547100.038.619.6
SJS0.55157.329.513.1
COL0.52842.718.57.1


With a win in the second overtime, St. Louis won game 7 and became the favorite to win the West, at least for today. San Jose would take that back with a win over Colorado tonight in their game 7. Either way, the conference finals will both be set after tonight.

2019-05-07

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 7

Boston over San Jose

Round 2
COL 3-3 SJS
DAL 3-3 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
BOS0.592100.061.438.5
CAR0.547100.038.620.1
SJS0.55157.331.213.8
STL0.55158.130.213.1
COL0.52842.719.77.6
DAL0.51941.918.96.9


Boston closed out their series against Columbus, a result no other team should have wanted based on my strength numbers. Tonight, St. Louis and Dallas play game 7. If St. Louis wins, they'll certainly be the favorite for at least a day, and I think Dallas would too, although their low strength might mean they don't quite make it, I haven't run the numbers.

2019-05-06

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 6

Boston over San Jose

Round 2
COL 2-3 SJS
DAL 3-3 STL
CBJ 2-3 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
BOS0.59279.048.630.2
CAR0.547100.041.021.0
SJS0.55177.542.219.4
STL0.55158.129.213.1
DAL0.51941.918.26.9
CBJ0.55321.010.45.4
COL0.52822.510.44.1


St. Louis won to tie their series, but San Jose is still favored for now, so the projection stays stable for once. That seems to be rare this year.

Both Boston and San Jose could win their way to the third round tonight, unless Columbus or Colorado can tie the series and force a game 7.

2019-05-05

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 5

Boston over San Jose

Round 2
COL 2-3 SJS
DAL 3-2 STL
CBJ 2-3 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
BOS0.59279.048.630.7
CAR0.547100.041.021.3
SJS0.55177.543.820.1
DAL0.51972.031.311.8
STL0.55128.014.16.3
CBJ0.55321.010.45.5
COL0.52822.510.94.3


Boston and San Jose both won to take their series to 3-2, and to both take over the lead in their conferences, so the projection is completely upended today. There's just one game today, as St. Louis goes to Dallas to try to avoid elimination.

2019-05-04

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 4

Carolina over Dallas

Round 2
COL 2-2 SJS
DAL 3-2 STL
CBJ 2-2 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
CAR0.547100.043.423.0
BOS0.59258.435.922.9
SJS0.55156.031.615.0
DAL0.51972.032.612.6
CBJ0.55341.620.711.1
COL0.52844.021.38.6
STL0.55128.014.66.7


With a a win over St. Louis giving them a 3-2 lead, Dallas is just barely favored to move on and win the West, slightly ahead of San Jose who is currently tied 2-2 with Colorado. Carolina has advanced to the Eastern Conference final, and so is currently the favorite, with Boston and Columbus also tied at 2. Each of those 2-2 series will play today and also have at least one more game Monday.

2019-05-03

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 3

San Jose over Carolina

Round 2
COL 2-2 SJS
DAL 2-2 STL
CBJ 2-2 BOS
CAR 3-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
BOS0.59258.435.622.4
CAR0.54792.440.120.9
SJS0.55156.030.514.4
STL0.55157.229.813.7
CBJ0.55341.620.510.7
COL0.52844.020.48.2
DAL0.51942.819.37.5
NYI0.5757.63.82.2


3 of the 4 series are now tied at 2-2, making them near tossups. Carolina has a chance to finish a sweep against New York tonight and earn plenty of extra rest before the conference final. Dallas and St. Louis will break their 2-2 tie in the late game, but obviously have at least one more game Sunday.

2019-05-02

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 2

San Jose over Carolina

Round 2
COL 1-2 SJS
DAL 2-2 STL
CBJ 2-1 BOS
CAR 3-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
CAR0.54792.442.421.8
SJS0.55172.339.419.2
CBJ0.55362.730.916.0
BOS0.59237.322.714.2
STL0.55157.229.013.8
DAL0.51942.818.87.4
COL0.52827.712.85.3
NYI0.5757.64.02.3


Carolina took a 3-0 lead, and is over 92% likely to win at least 1 of their next up-to-4 games to advance. Dallas tied up the series against St. Louis, so San Jose remains on top of the West.

2019-05-01

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 1

San Jose over Carolina

Round 2
COL 1-2 SJS
DAL 1-2 STL
CBJ 2-1 BOS
CAR 2-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
SJS0.55172.338.618.5
CAR0.54779.036.318.5
STL0.55173.437.317.5
CBJ0.55362.730.415.5
BOS0.59237.322.413.9
NYI0.57521.010.96.4
COL0.52827.712.55.1
DAL0.51926.611.74.6


Last night, Boston was upset by Columbus, and I ran my numbers between games, showing St. Louis's chances went up a little, since they'd face a weaker team in the final on average. But, San Jose also won, which makes St. Louis's path out of the West harder. So it was roughly a wash, moving them from 17.6% to 17.5% in the table. San Jose takes over the lead in the West, and Carolina retains the lead in the East.

2019-04-30

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 30

Carolina over St. Louis

Round 2
COL 1-1 SJS
DAL 1-2 STL
CBJ 1-1 BOS
CAR 2-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
BOS0.59255.633.420.9
CAR0.54779.034.617.9
STL0.55173.438.417.6
SJS0.55152.528.013.1
CBJ0.55344.421.511.2
COL0.52847.521.58.6
NYI0.57521.010.56.1
DAL0.51926.612.14.6


With a 2-1 series lead, St. Louis is now the favorite in the West. I realized that my table itself doesn't capture the projected matchup and winner correctly. Carolina is indeed the most likely team to win in the East, and is weaker than St. Louis, so I initially wrote "St. Louis over Carolina" at the top. However, since I take home ice into account, Carolina would be 50.7% likely to win that series, as both teams have 99 points and (if I have implemented it correctly), Carolina would get home ice advantage based on tiebreakers. Also, annoyingly, Boston is still the overall favorite, despite not being the Eastern conference favorite.

2019-04-29

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 29

Carolina over San Jose

Round 2
COL 1-1 SJS
DAL 1-1 STL
CBJ 1-1 BOS
CAR 2-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
BOS0.59255.633.421.1
CAR0.54779.034.618.1
SJS0.55152.528.713.4
STL0.55154.028.312.9
CBJ0.55344.421.511.4
COL0.52847.522.18.9
DAL0.51946.020.98.0
NYI0.57521.010.56.2


Colorado evened the series against San Jose, but San Jose remains the Western Conference favorite. In the East, the situation is a little odd. Carolina is the most likely team to win the East, slighty above Boston. However, Boston is more likely to be the overall winner. There's just one game today, St. Louis at Dallas, as an extra off day has been inserted into both Eastern Conference series.

2019-04-28

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 28

Boston over San Jose

Round 2
COL 0-1 SJS
DAL 1-1 STL
CBJ 1-1 BOS
CAR 1-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
BOS0.59255.632.820.5
SJS0.55169.938.217.6
CAR0.54760.326.413.6
STL0.55154.027.512.4
NYI0.57539.719.811.7
CBJ0.55344.421.010.9
DAL0.51946.020.37.7
COL0.52830.114.05.5


Dallas and Columbus evened both of their series at 1, and we're about as uncertain as we can be at this point. Boston and San Jose are still the favorites to make the final, but it's far from a foregone conclusion. In retrospect, I can see how it might have been more logical to have the Dallas-St. Louis game in the evening and the Boston-Columbus game during the day, especially when I was watching Columbus win the game about 11pm Central time, or midnight Eastern.

2019-04-27

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 27

Boston over San Jose

Round 2
COL 0-1 SJS
DAL 0-1 STL
CBJ 0-1 BOS
CAR 1-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
BOS0.59272.843.026.7
SJS0.55169.937.416.8
STL0.55171.436.416.0
CAR0.54760.325.212.8
NYI0.57539.719.011.1
CBJ0.55327.212.86.6
COL0.52830.113.65.3
DAL0.51928.612.64.7


San Jose won to take back the Western Conference lead, and Carolina upset New York to flip the favorite in that series. Everyone in St. Louis is whining about the 2pm start time today for some reason, and tonight Columbus and Boston play as well.

2019-04-26

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 26

Boston over St. Louis

Round 2
COL 0-0 SJS
DAL 0-1 STL
CBJ 0-1 BOS
CAR 0-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
BOS0.59272.842.226.3
STL0.55171.437.116.2
NYI0.57557.727.616.2
SJS0.55156.630.313.4
CAR0.54742.317.69.1
COL0.52843.419.77.5
CBJ0.55327.212.56.5
DAL0.51928.612.94.7


Boston and St. Louis won their opening games of round 2, and are now your conference favorites. St. Louis took over the lead from San Jose, while Boston solidified their position. The other two series begin tonight, and for the most part every series will go every other day.

2019-04-25

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 25

Boston over San Jose

Round 2
COL 0-0 SJS
DAL 0-0 STL
CBJ 0-0 BOS
CAR 0-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
BOS0.59260.234.821.9
NYI0.57557.728.516.8
SJS0.55156.630.813.8
STL0.55158.430.413.5
CBJ0.55339.818.49.6
CAR0.54742.318.39.5
COL0.52843.420.17.8
DAL0.51941.618.87.0


All the Canadian teams are out, all the Division winners are out, but the playoffs will march on. There were a total of 5 upsets by seed, all the wildcards over all 4 number 1s, plus #3 St. Louis over #2 Winnipeg. Boston and San Jose are still the favorites to make the final, and even though round 1 finished last night, round 2 starts tonight with St. Louis hosting Dallas and Boston hosting Columbus.

2019-04-24

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 24

Boston over San Jose

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 3-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthRound 2Round 3FinalsCup
BOS0.592100.060.234.721.8
NYI0.575100.055.027.216.1
SJS0.551100.056.630.813.7
STL0.551100.058.430.413.5
CBJ0.553100.039.818.39.6
COL0.528100.043.420.17.8
DAL0.519100.041.618.87.0
WSH0.55555.826.311.86.5
CAR0.54744.218.78.14.2


Boston and San Jose both won their game 7 battles, and are now each the favorite in their conference. New York is dominated by Boston due to a huge strength difference, but San Jose is projected to win based on home ice advantage. In the table above they appear tied with St. Louis in strength, but to more decimal places, St. Louis is ahead .55093 to .55078. that's still a minuscule difference, as, for example one more goal scored by San Jose would have bumped them up to .55249. There's one last game remaining in round 1, game 7 between Carolina and Washington.

2019-04-23

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 23

New York Islanders over St. Louis

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-3 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-3 BOS
CAR 3-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthRound 2Round 3FinalsCup
NYI0.575100.055.028.516.9
STL0.551100.058.431.214.1
BOS0.59257.734.720.012.6
CBJ0.553100.042.419.410.3
COL0.528100.044.520.58.2
SJS0.55156.131.817.37.9
DAL0.519100.041.619.47.4
WSH0.55555.826.312.46.9
TOR0.56542.322.911.26.4
VGK0.54043.923.811.64.9
CAR0.54744.218.78.44.4


Dallas clinched their series and will face St. Louis in round 2, which boosts St. Louis up a little bit from yesterday, given that Dallas is a weaker team than Nashville, and that they will not have home ice advantage whereas Nashville would have. Carolina tied Washington, to force a game 7 on Wednesday night. The other two game 7s (games 7?) are tonight, with Canada's last hope Toronto looking to stay alive against Boston, and Vegas and San Jose facing off in the West.

2019-04-22

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 22

New York Islanders over St. Louis

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-3 SJS
DAL 3-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-3 BOS
CAR 2-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthRound 2Round 3FinalsCup
NYI0.575100.054.128.016.5
STL0.551100.055.229.513.3
BOS0.59257.734.720.012.5
CBJ0.553100.042.419.410.2
WSH0.55576.035.816.99.2
COL0.528100.044.520.18.0
SJS0.55156.131.816.97.7
TOR0.56542.322.911.26.3
DAL0.51971.429.713.85.2
VGK0.54043.923.811.44.8
NSH0.55728.615.28.33.9
CAR0.54724.010.14.52.4


Boston and Vegas avoided elimination, extending both of their series to game 7. Nashville and Carolina will try to do the same tonight, both down 3-2.

2019-04-21

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 21

New York Islanders over St. Louis

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-2 SJS
DAL 3-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-2 BOS
CAR 2-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthRound 2Round 3FinalsCup
NYI0.575100.054.128.917.1
STL0.551100.055.230.013.8
TOR0.56572.439.319.110.9
CBJ0.553100.044.120.210.7
WSH0.55576.035.817.69.6
COL0.528100.045.220.48.2
VGK0.54074.140.219.28.2
BOS0.59227.616.69.56.0
DAL0.51971.429.714.15.4
NSH0.55728.615.28.44.0
SJS0.55125.914.67.83.6
CAR0.54724.010.14.72.5


St. Louis played like their early 2019 performance and not their late 2018, so outperformed my projections to move on to the next round. In the same portion of the bracket, Dallas beat Nashville to go up 3-2 for a chance to face St. Louis, and in the East, Washington took a 3-2 lead against Carolina in dominating fashion with a 6-0 win. There are now 4 teams who have advanced, but none of their opponents have yet been determined. I'll be interested to see if the extra rest makes a big difference in the next round. Of course, I'm hoping it does, to give the Blues a better shot.

We're down to 1 Canadian team out of the 3 that made the playoffs, which is just interesting given the history of the NHL. Toronto could advance Sunday, though, against fellow Original Six member Boston, while 1 very new team could clinch against the still relatively new (under 30 years is relatively new) San Jose.

2019-04-20

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 20

New York Islanders over St. Louis

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-2 SJS
DAL 2-2 NSH
STL 3-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-2 BOS
CAR 2-2 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthRound 2Round 3FinalsCup
NYI0.575100.055.129.517.3
TOR0.56572.439.319.310.8
CBJ0.553100.044.120.310.6
STL0.55174.938.821.19.7
NSH0.55758.130.717.18.1
COL0.528100.045.219.98.0
VGK0.54074.140.218.78.0
WSH0.55553.725.312.46.7
BOS0.59227.616.69.66.0
CAR0.54746.319.69.04.6
SJS0.55125.914.67.63.6
WPG0.55425.113.27.33.4
DAL0.51941.917.38.23.2


Colorado beat the stronger Calgary team, weakening the field for St. Louis who becomes even more of a favorite in the West. Colorado, of course, also made a large jump, but aren't quite up to St. Louis' level yet. Toronto beat Boston to take a 3-2 lead in that series. Up on Saturday, St. Louis tries to clinch against Winnipeg, Carolina and Washington, and Dallas and Nashville both play game 5 to break their 2-2 tie.