2019-01-21

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Championship Sunday

Los Angeles Rams over New England

Both favorites lost on Sunday, although they were very close matchups, so it's not terribly shocking. In the NFC, we have the LA Rams, who were the NFC Favorite up until the Sunday of week 11, when New Orleans took over with a 48-7 win. In the AFC, Kansas City was the favorite from week 7 onward, but fell to New England, who wasn't the favorite all season long. So we get a rematch of Super Bowl XXXVI, Rams vs Patriots, albeit with a new city for the Rams. I'll be rooting for them to avenge their loss 17 years later. It's pretty amazing that New England has the same Quarterback and Head Coach after all that time. I've got them just slightly favored, but this game is basically going to be a tossup.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR13-30.722++++++++++51.70
NE11-50.708++++++++++48.30
CHI12-40.768++++----
NO13-30.745++++++++--
BAL10-60.714++++----
KC12-40.708++++++++--
LAC12-40.688-++++---
HOU11-50.674++++----
IND10-60.667-++++---
SEA10-60.653-++----
PIT9-6-10.627------
MIN8-7-10.541------
PHI9-70.540-++++---
DAL10-60.534++++++---
TEN9-70.517------
CAR7-90.488------
ATL7-90.484------
DEN6-100.456------
GB6-9-10.454------
CLE7-8-10.434------
DET6-100.421------
NYG5-110.418------
TB5-110.383------
CIN6-100.345------
SF4-120.326------
WAS7-90.323------
JAC5-110.317------
NYJ4-120.300------
MIA7-90.285------
BUF6-100.270------
OAK4-120.192------
ARI3-130.128------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)
First to clinch a playoff spot: Los Angeles Rams (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New Orleans (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: New Orleans (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from the Playoffs: San Francisco and Oakland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 17, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Wildcard Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Wildcard Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Divisional Saturday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Divisional Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City

2019-01-14

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Divisional Sunday

New Orleans over Kansas City

This has been a very close year for the teams at the top. No team crossed the 30% mark for Super Bowl winning chances all year, until of course one will cross 50% once the games are over on Sunday. Speaking of even, Kansas City and New England couldn't be much closer. Their strengths, shown as .708 for both in my chart, to more decimal places are .70805 and .70781. Hopefully that means we'll have 2 pretty good and close games. I'd argue that from a pure football perspective, next Sunday might be better than the Super Bowl, having 2 great games instead of just one. But there's not nearly the pomp and circumstance, parties with casual football fans, and old rock bands lip-syncing the halftime shows.

Onto the teams I'll be rooting for to make the Super Bowl:

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans: I'm not sure when I soured on New Orleans, but I just can't root for them. Maybe it's the all-black uniforms. Get some gold or white pants, guys. Of course, they were a division rival of the Rams in St. Louis in the NFC West from 1995-2001, so maybe that's the reason. So I find myself rooting for the Rams yet again.

New England at Kansas City: We always give our local Chiefs fans trouble about how they always fold late in the season or in the playoffs, so it's time they get a chance to get back to the Super Bowl, where they haven't been since Super Bowl IV as an AFL team.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO13-30.745++++++++52.9628.95
LAR13-30.722++++++++47.0424.32
KC12-40.708++++++++50.0323.39
NE11-50.708++++++++49.9723.35
CHI12-40.768++++----
BAL10-60.714++++----
LAC12-40.688-++++---
HOU11-50.674++++----
IND10-60.667-++++---
SEA10-60.653-++----
PIT9-6-10.627------
MIN8-7-10.541------
PHI9-70.540-++++---
DAL10-60.534++++++---
TEN9-70.517------
CAR7-90.488------
ATL7-90.484------
DEN6-100.456------
GB6-9-10.454------
CLE7-8-10.434------
DET6-100.421------
NYG5-110.418------
TB5-110.383------
CIN6-100.345------
SF4-120.326------
WAS7-90.324------
JAC5-110.317------
NYJ4-120.300------
MIA7-90.285------
BUF6-100.270------
OAK4-120.192------
ARI3-130.128------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)
First to clinch a playoff spot: Los Angeles Rams (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New Orleans (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: New Orleans (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from the Playoffs: San Francisco and Oakland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 17, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Wildcard Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Wildcard Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Divisional Saturday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

2019-01-13

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Divisional Saturday

Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

It's time for my least favorite post of this series ever year, Divisional Saturday. That's because yesterday's winners are practically guaranteed to be the favorites in their conference, because their eventual opponent still has to win one more game. However, this year the favorites are at least actually over 50%. But, if New Orleans wins today, they'll return to being the NFC and overall favorite.

Who am I rooting for on Sunday?

Los Angeles Chargers at New England: I don't like rooting for New England, but a rematch of their Superbowl XXXVI against the Rams, or even Philadelphia last year would be interesting, so why not?

Philadelphia at New Orleans: I've gotta root for Philadelphia and Nick Foles to keep going through the playoffs, no question.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR13-30.722++++++++53.2827.82
KC12-40.708++++++++51.1425.01
NO13-30.745++++++71.3337.7920.85
NE11-50.708++++++52.3126.1412.78
LAC12-40.688-++++47.6922.7310.59
PHI9-70.540-++++28.678.932.96
CHI12-40.768++++----
BAL10-60.714++++----
HOU11-50.674++++----
IND10-60.667-++++---
SEA10-60.653-++----
PIT9-6-10.627------
MIN8-7-10.541------
DAL10-60.534++++++---
TEN9-70.517------
CAR7-90.488------
ATL7-90.484------
DEN6-100.456------
GB6-9-10.454------
CLE7-8-10.434------
DET6-100.421------
NYG5-110.418------
TB5-110.383------
CIN6-100.345------
SF4-120.326------
WAS7-90.324------
JAC5-110.317------
NYJ4-120.300------
MIA7-90.285------
BUF6-100.270------
OAK4-120.192------
ARI3-130.128------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)
First to clinch a playoff spot: Los Angeles Rams (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New Orleans (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: New Orleans (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from the Playoffs: San Francisco and Oakland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 17, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Wildcard Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Wildcard Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City

2019-01-07

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Wildcard Sunday

New Orleans over Kansas City

Philadelphia took down the strongest team in the league by my points scored and allowed measurement, and Los Angeles went into Baltimore and also pulled off what I would consider an upset, despite their 2 game advantage by record. But, often this first weekend consists of 4 games with no teams that make the next round, so the whole weekend could be sort of pointless. Both New Orleans and the LA Rams got a sizable boost from Philadelphia's win, over 4 percentage points for New Orleans and almost 10 points for LA to win the NFC.

So who am I rooting for on Saturday?

Indianapolis at Kansas City: KC is my adopted home team, at least for now, so I'll be rooting for them. Nothing personal, Indianapolis.

Dallas at Los Angeles Rams: As a kid, I had a Troy Aikman poster up in my room. I still have the poster, in fact. Now, he had already won one Superbowl and was headed to another when I got it, so I was definitely being a bandwagon fan, but still, I used to root for the Cowboys. Also, in case you haven't noticed, I also used to root for the Rams. It's kind of tough to root for them while they are still owned by the same guy that took them out of St. Louis, but I'd kind of like to see them face Kansas City in the Superbowl. Ultimately, I guess I'll pull for the Rams in this one.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO13-30.745++++++71.3441.9123.55
LAR13-30.722++++++69.3536.9519.68
KC12-40.708++++++54.8128.0214.34
NE11-50.708++++++52.3227.2813.95
LAC12-40.688-++++47.6823.7711.62
IND10-60.667-++++45.1920.939.73
PHI9-70.540-++++28.6610.643.62
DAL10-60.534++++++30.6510.503.52
CHI12-40.768++++----
BAL10-60.714++++----
HOU11-50.674++++----
SEA10-60.653-++----
PIT9-6-10.627------
MIN8-7-10.541------
TEN9-70.517------
CAR7-90.488------
ATL7-90.484------
DEN6-100.456------
GB6-9-10.454------
CLE7-8-10.434------
DET6-100.421------
NYG5-110.418------
TB5-110.383------
CIN6-100.346------
SF4-120.326------
WAS7-90.324------
JAC5-110.317------
NYJ4-120.300------
MIA7-90.285------
BUF6-100.271------
OAK4-120.192------
ARI3-130.128------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)
First to clinch a playoff spot: Los Angeles Rams (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New Orleans (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: New Orleans (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from the Playoffs: San Francisco and Oakland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 17, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Wildcard Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City

2019-01-06

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 19

We finished off the bowl games with 11 more plus the FCS championship. Congratulations to North Dakota State, champions from 2011-2015 and now 2017-2018. In the FBS, we now have just the title game to go, but Ohio State bumped themselves up to #3 with a bowl win over Washington. The winner of Clemon-Alabama should get my #1 spot, and the team who lost to the winner, either Notre Dame or Oklahoma, may also pass up Ohio State.

1Clemson14-0
2Alabama14-0
3Ohio State13-1
4Notre Dame12-1
5Oklahoma12-2
6Georgia11-3
7UCF12-1
8Fresno State12-2
9Washington State11-2
10Army11-2
11Appalachian State11-2
12Cincinnati11-2
13Florida10-3
14LSU10-3
15Washington10-4
16Michigan10-3
17Kentucky10-3
18UAB11-3
19Texas10-4
20Utah State11-2
21Boise State10-3
22Syracuse10-3
23Texas A&M9-4
24Troy10-3
25Utah9-5
26Stanford9-4
27Georgia Southern10-3
28Iowa9-4
29Northwestern9-5
30Penn State9-4
31NC State9-4
32Buffalo10-4
33Oregon9-4
34Marshall9-4
35Duke8-5
36Iowa State8-5
37West Virginia8-4
38Mississippi State8-5
39Ohio9-4
40Auburn8-5
41Missouri8-5
42North Texas9-4
43Virginia8-5
44Northern Illinois8-6
45Florida Intl9-4
46Wisconsin8-5
47Middle Tennessee8-6
48Temple8-5
49Pittsburgh7-7
50Arkansas State8-5
51South Carolina7-6
52Hawai'i8-6
53TCU7-6
54Wake Forest7-6
55Nevada8-5
56BYU7-6
57Louisiana Tech8-5
58Boston College7-5
59Oklahoma State7-6
60Baylor7-6
61Miami7-6
62Georgia Tech7-6
63Minnesota7-6
64Tulane7-6
65Michigan State7-6
66Houston8-5
67Memphis8-6
68Arizona State7-6
69California7-6
70San Diego State7-6
71Eastern Michigan7-6
72South Florida7-6
73Louisiana7-7
74Purdue6-7
75Vanderbilt6-7
76Western Michigan7-6
77Toledo7-6
78Virginia Tech6-7
79Miami (OH)6-6
80Wyoming6-6
81Florida State5-7
82Southern Mississippi6-5
83Tennessee5-7
84UL Monroe6-6
85Texas Tech5-7
86Indiana5-7
87Kansas State5-7
88Maryland5-7
89Florida Atlantic5-7
90Coastal Carolina5-7
91USC5-7
92Ole Miss5-7
93Air Force5-7
94Arizona5-7
95SMU5-7
96Charlotte5-7
97Colorado5-7
98Nebraska4-8
99UMass4-8
100UCLA3-9
101Illinois4-8
102Akron4-8
103UNLV4-8
104Ball State4-8
105Old Dominion4-8
106South Alabama3-9
107Navy3-10
108Kansas3-9
109East Carolina3-9
110New Mexico3-9
111Louisville2-10
112UTSA3-9
113New Mexico State3-9
114Colorado State3-9
115Tulsa3-9
116Bowling Green3-9
117Western Kentucky3-9
118Georgia State2-10
119North Carolina2-9
120Oregon State2-10
121Arkansas2-10
122Texas State3-9
123Rice2-11
124San Jose State1-11
125Kent State2-10
126Rutgers1-11
127UConn1-11
128Central Michigan1-11
129UTEP1-11

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford
Week 5 Notre Dame
Week 6 Notre Dame
Week 7 Notre Dame
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Clemson
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson
Week 14 Clemson
Week 15 Clemson
Week 16 Clemson
Week 17 Clemson
Week 18 Clemson

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Wildcard Saturday

New Orleans over Kansas City

Both games went the way I was rooting yesterday, though neither matched my projection. Indianapolis was nearly 50/50 to beat Houston, though. I think Seattle was close enough in their loss to Dallas that the injury to Sebastian Janikowski really could have made the difference for them. You never want to have your punter doing your kicking in a playoff game. Kansas City got a little boost by getting to face the weakest remaining team, giving them a little separation from New England in the AFC favorite spot. A Baltimore win would lower New England's chances further, while LA would boost them back up a bit.

So who am I rooting for today?

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore: I guess Baltimore? I don't know. I know it'll cause even more quarterback controversy if they lose, because they're sticking with Lamar Jackson instead of going back to Joe Flacco now that he's healthy.

Philadelphia at Chicago: Philadelphia, because Nick Foles taking over for the injured started 2  years in a row is too good of a story not to root for. Also he's a former Ram, along with Chris Long. With as short as NFL careers are, player that played for St. Louis won't be around all that much longer. The Bears also have former Ram Benny Cunningham, as well as Mizzou guy Chase Daniel, so


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO13-30.745++++++71.7137.2720.78
CHI12-40.768++++73.8141.3624.4314.36
LAR13-30.722++++++50.6126.9814.25
KC12-40.708++++++54.8227.5913.23
NE11-50.708++++++50.6726.4212.66
IND10-60.667-++++45.1820.588.90
BAL10-60.714++++53.0826.9514.266.94
LAC12-40.688-++46.9222.3811.155.10
DAL10-60.534++++++28.818.552.83
PHI9-70.540-++26.197.502.780.94
HOU11-50.674++++----
SEA10-60.653-++----
PIT9-6-10.627------
MIN8-7-10.541------
TEN9-70.517------
CAR7-90.488------
ATL7-90.484------
DEN6-100.456------
GB6-9-10.454------
CLE7-8-10.434------
DET6-100.421------
NYG5-110.418------
TB5-110.383------
CIN6-100.345------
SF4-120.326------
WAS7-90.323------
JAC5-110.317------
NYJ4-120.300------
MIA7-90.285------
BUF6-100.270------
OAK4-120.192------
ARI3-130.128------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)
First to clinch a playoff spot: Los Angeles Rams (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New Orleans (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: New Orleans (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from the Playoffs: San Francisco and Oakland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 17, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City

2018-12-31

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 17, Final

New Orleans over Kansas City

With the regular season over, the playoff field is set. Interestingly, the top 3 favorites to win are all in the NFC, thanks to some very high strengths. In the AFC, Kansas City is just barely ahead of New England in terms of chances to make it to the Superbowl, so consider that almost a tossup, although for historical reasons I don't have any home field advantage taken into account.

I like to look for any weird imbalances when we get to the playoffs, and there really aren't many this year. All teams 11 teams with 10 wins or more made the playoffs. The only nonplayoff team with a better record than a playoff team this year is Pittsburgh, at 9-6-1, half a game better than 9-7 Philadelphia. Of course with 6 teams per conference, that doesn't do Pittsburgh any good.

Now for the annual tradition of my (rooting) picks.

Indianapolis at Houston: I always used to root for Peyton Manning and Marshall Faulk, but I was surprised to find myself not all that attached to Indianapolis as they moved on. They're even one of the teams that took out a goofy ad to tell St. Louis they should adopt them as their home team when the Rams left. But, I'm even less attached to Houston, so I'll root for Indianapolis in this one.

Seattle at Dallas: Just for old time's sake, let's root for the Cowboys in this one. I know it's popular to hate the Cowboys, just like the Yankees, but sometimes you just want to see a marquee team in there.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO13-30.745++++++66.6734.4819.21
CHI12-40.768++++73.8241.3723.9714.08
LAR13-30.722++++++48.7525.5813.50
KC12-40.708++++++52.7326.9312.87
NE11-50.708++++++52.3626.8012.80
BAL10-60.714++++53.0926.9514.226.90
LAC12-40.688-++46.9122.3611.115.05
HOU11-50.674++++50.8023.3710.824.75
SEA10-60.653-++62.1524.8010.084.51
IND10-60.667-++49.2022.2310.124.36
DAL10-60.534++++37.8510.903.231.07
PHI9-70.540-++26.187.502.650.89
PIT9-6-10.627------
MIN8-7-10.541------
TEN9-70.517------
CAR7-90.488------
ATL7-90.484------
DEN6-100.456------
GB6-9-10.454------
CLE7-8-10.434------
DET6-100.421------
NYG5-110.418------
TB5-110.383------
CIN6-100.345------
SF4-120.326------
WAS7-90.323------
JAC5-110.317------
NYJ4-120.300------
MIA7-90.285------
BUF6-100.270------
OAK4-120.192------
ARI3-130.128------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)
First to clinch a playoff spot: Los Angeles Rams (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New Orleans (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: New Orleans (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from the Playoffs: San Francisco and Oakland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City

2018-12-30

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 18

This week had 13 bowls, although #14 was canceled for lightning. A bunch of teams shuffled around a little, but most importantly, we had the CFP semifinals. In my rankings, we had 1 vs 3 and 2 vs 4, so #1 Clemson got a bigger strength boost than #2 Alabama, so remained on top. I believe they are close enough that the winner will be my #1 at the end of the year, but we'll see how the other 11 bowls plus the FCS title game affect things.

1Clemson14-0
2Alabama14-0
3Notre Dame12-1
4Oklahoma12-2
5Ohio State12-1
6Georgia11-2
7UCF12-0
8Fresno State12-2
9Washington State11-2
10Army11-2
11Appalachian State11-2
12Florida10-3
13Washington10-3
14Michigan10-3
15UAB11-3
16Utah State11-2
17Boise State10-3
18Syracuse10-3
19Troy10-3
20Cincinnati10-2
21Utah9-4
22Georgia Southern10-3
23LSU9-3
24Kentucky9-3
25Penn State9-3
26NC State9-3
27Texas9-4
28Buffalo10-4
29Texas A&M8-4
30Stanford8-4
31Marshall9-4
32Duke8-5
33Ohio9-4
34Iowa8-4
35Mississippi State8-4
36Missouri8-4
37West Virginia8-4
38Iowa State8-5
39Auburn8-5
40Northwestern8-5
41North Texas9-4
42Virginia8-5
43Northern Illinois8-6
44Florida Intl9-4
45Wisconsin8-5
46Oregon8-4
47Pittsburgh7-6
48Middle Tennessee8-6
49Temple8-5
50Arkansas State8-5
51Hawai'i8-6
52South Carolina7-6
53Wake Forest7-6
54Nevada8-5
55BYU7-6
56TCU7-6
57Boston College7-5
58Louisiana Tech8-5
59Miami7-6
60Georgia Tech7-6
61Baylor7-6
62Minnesota7-6
63Michigan State7-5
64Tulane7-6
65Houston8-5
66Memphis8-6
67Arizona State7-6
68California7-6
69San Diego State7-6
70Eastern Michigan7-6
71South Florida7-6
72Louisiana7-7
73Purdue6-7
74Western Michigan7-6
75Vanderbilt6-7
76Toledo7-6
77Virginia Tech6-6
78Oklahoma State6-6
79Miami (OH)6-6
80Wyoming6-6
81Florida State5-7
82Southern Mississippi6-5
83Tennessee5-7
84UL Monroe6-6
85Indiana5-7
86Texas Tech5-7
87Florida Atlantic5-7
88Coastal Carolina5-7
89Maryland5-7
90Kansas State5-7
91USC5-7
92Ole Miss5-7
93Air Force5-7
94SMU5-7
95Arizona5-7
96Charlotte5-7
97Colorado5-7
98Nebraska4-8
99UMass4-8
100UCLA3-9
101Illinois4-8
102Akron4-8
103UNLV4-8
104Ball State4-8
105Old Dominion4-8
106South Alabama3-9
107Navy3-10
108East Carolina3-9
109Kansas3-9
110New Mexico3-9
111Louisville2-10
112UTSA3-9
113New Mexico State3-9
114Colorado State3-9
115Tulsa3-9
116Western Kentucky3-9
117Bowling Green3-9
118Georgia State2-10
119North Carolina2-9
120Oregon State2-10
121Texas State3-9
122Arkansas2-10
123Rice2-11
124San Jose State1-11
125Kent State2-10
126UConn1-11
127Rutgers1-11
128Central Michigan1-11
129UTEP1-11

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford
Week 5 Notre Dame
Week 6 Notre Dame
Week 7 Notre Dame
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Clemson
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson
Week 14 Clemson
Week 15 Clemson
Week 16 Clemson
Week 17 Clemson