2021-04-01

Opening Day!

 

1984 Topps - Glossy All-Stars #12 Whitey Herzog

I've always enjoyed one quirk of these All-Star cards, particularly for the managers. This card is from the 1984 set, features the 1983 All-Star game, which the Manager earned by being in the 1982 World series. But it's April, forget the All-Star break, forget the World Series, it's Opening Day.

So how does Whitey Herzog handle Opening Day? Let's see some stats

YearTeamResult
1990STLWin
1989STLLoss
1988STLLoss
1987STLWin
1986STLWin
1985STLLoss
1984STLWin
1983STLLoss
1982STLWin
1981STLLoss
1979KCRWin
1978KCRLoss
1977KCRWin
1976KCRLoss
1973TEXLoss
TotalSTL5-5
TotalKCR2-2
TotalTEX0-1
Overall 7-8

7-8? That's no fun. So let's get creative. Whitey took over midseason as manager 3 times. 1980 for the Cardinals, and 1975 for the Royals, as you might expect from the years listed above. He also managed 4 games for the Angels between managers in 1974. So let's add in Whitey's personal opening days.

DateTeamResult
1980-06-09STLWin
1975-07-25KCRWin
1974-06-26TEXLoss
Overall 2-1

Note: I'm not totally sure June 26 was his first game of 1974, but it seems to line up with the records of the previous manager, and starts a 2 for 4 stretch, which would be his final record that year.

We're up to 9-9, that's at least a .500 record. Can we get even more creative? How about 1981, which had a strike mid-year and the season was divided into halves. Everyone got a fresh start, a 0-0 record, and new shot at the playoffs, regardless of your previous record. Sounds like an opening day scenario to me. How'd he do in 1981's second opening day, in August?

DateTeamResult
1981-08-10STLWin

There we go! A 10-9 "Opening Day" record, achieved completely legitimately with no funny business.

Opening Days 
STL5-5
KCR2-1
TEX0-1
Opening Days7-8
First Days 
STL1-0
KCR1-0
CAL0-1
First Days2-1
2nd Half 
STL1-0
Total10-9


Just for fun, here's a video from one of my favorite Whitey Herzog stories. He was interested in becoming commissioner but was passed over for Bart Giamatti, previously president of Yale. Marv joked that if he didn't get it, there'd be an opening at Yale, and Whitey did not appreciate the joke. Seems a bit petty, but it's on the milder side of what we've seen from athletes and managers getting annoyed by reporters.


2021-01-25

Super Bowl LV Projection, Championship Sunday

Tampa Bay over Kansas City

Disclaimer: I didn't originally post this on time for some reason, but I've backdated the posting date just so it make sense

Tampa Bay beat Green Bay by just 5 points, but they were really in complete control by halftime. Kansas City also dominated Buffalo but didn't allow them to get nearly as close during garbage time.

Who am I rooting for to win the Super Bowl?

Tampa Bay (54.5%) at Kansas City
Just like Superbowl LIV, I've got to root for my adopted home team. 

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
TB11-50.731-++++++++54.5
KC14-20.694++++++++++45.5
BAL11-50.791-++++---
NO12-40.750++++++---
GB13-30.728++++++++--
BUF13-30.708++++++++--
PIT12-40.707++++----
LAR10-60.668-++++---
IND11-50.662-++----
SEA12-40.658++++----
MIA10-60.633------
TEN11-50.585++++----
ARI8-80.584------
WAS7-90.514++++----
CHI8-80.504-++----
CLE11-50.480-++++---
SF6-100.472------
ATL4-120.466------
NE7-90.439------
LV8-80.427------
MIN7-90.424------
LAC7-90.421------
CAR5-110.395------
DAL6-100.365------
HOU4-120.359------
PHI4-11-10.335------
NYG6-100.322------
CIN4-11-10.279------
DET5-110.273------
DEN5-110.271------
JAC1-150.189------
NYJ2-140.126------

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.99999% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 12, Final)
First to clinch Playoffs: New Orleans and Kansas City (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye and homefield in conference playoffs: Kansas City (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Sunday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 14, Final] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Thursday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Friday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 17] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Wildcard Saturday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Wildcard Sunday] Baltimore over New Orleans
[Divisional Saturday] Buffalo over Green Bay
[Divisional Sunday] Tampa Bay over Buffalo

2021-01-17

Super Bowl LV Projection, Divisional Sunday

Tampa Bay over Buffalo

With 3 games to go, the remaining 4 teams are pretty evenly matched. I should try to come up with a good measure for how evenly, that is, how close to 25-25-25-25 odds we are. Maybe during the off week.

Who am I rooting for to make it to the Superbowl?

Tampa Bay (50.4%) at Green Bay
Both games are close, but this one rounds to 50-50. For some reason I feel like I'd rather see Tampa Bay win, maybe because Green Bay has had so much success in my lifetime, or at least it feels that way.

Buffalo (51.7%) at Kansas City
I'm rooting for the underdog in this one, the team physically closest to being my hometown team, Kansas City.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
TB11-50.731-++++++50.3627.01
GB13-30.728++++++++49.6426.44
BUF13-30.708++++++++51.7024.49
KC14-20.694++++++++48.3022.06
BAL11-50.791-++++---
NO12-40.750++++++---
PIT12-40.707++++----
LAR10-60.668-++++---
IND11-50.662-++----
SEA12-40.657++++----
MIA10-60.633------
TEN11-50.585++++----
ARI8-80.584------
WAS7-90.514++++----
CHI8-80.504-++----
CLE11-50.480-++++---
SF6-100.472------
ATL4-120.466------
NE7-90.439------
LV8-80.427------
MIN7-90.424------
LAC7-90.421------
CAR5-110.395------
DAL6-100.365------
HOU4-120.359------
PHI4-11-10.335------
NYG6-100.322------
CIN4-11-10.279------
DET5-110.273------
DEN5-110.271------
JAC1-150.189------
NYJ2-140.126------

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.99999% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 12, Final)
First to clinch Playoffs: New Orleans and Kansas City (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye and homefield in conference playoffs: Kansas City (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Sunday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 14, Final] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Thursday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Friday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 17] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Wildcard Saturday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Wildcard Sunday] Baltimore over New Orleans
[Divisional Saturday] Buffalo over Green Bay

Super Bowl LV Projection, Divisional Saturday

Buffalo over Green Bay

I'm pretty sure I mention this caveat every year, at least every year if one or more of the top seeds don't play until Divisional Sunday, but the conference favorites right now are obviously the 2 teams that have already clinched a spot in the game. Green Bay will definitely not be favored against either opponent they ultimately face, but at 48% they have a higher likelihood than either New Orleans or Tampa Bay individually. Buffalo will be favored either way, so at least that part won't change after Sunday's games.

Who's up on Sunday?!

Cleveland at Kansas City (71%)
I'm rooting for KC as sort of my adopted home team, but the shine seems to be off the apple for them a little bit. Hopefully they can keep it together for 3 more games.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (52%)
This feels like a game Tampa Bay should win, but we'll see if the eye test or my model picks the right team. I'll root for Tampa Bay, mostly because New Orleans is just a team I don't usually root for.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BUF13-30.708++++++++57.7126.95
GB13-30.728++++++++48.3826.50
NO12-40.750++++++52.4127.6615.89
KC14-20.694++++++71.1234.3515.46
TB11-50.731-++++47.5923.9713.21
CLE11-50.480-++++28.887.951.98
BAL11-50.791-++++---
PIT12-40.707++++----
LAR10-60.668-++++---
IND11-50.662-++----
SEA12-40.658++++----
MIA10-60.633------
TEN11-50.585++++----
ARI8-80.584------
WAS7-90.514++++----
CHI8-80.504-++----
SF6-100.472------
ATL4-120.466------
NE7-90.439------
LV8-80.427------
MIN7-90.424------
LAC7-90.421------
CAR5-110.395------
DAL6-100.365------
HOU4-120.359------
PHI4-11-10.335------
NYG6-100.322------
CIN4-11-10.279------
DET5-110.273------
DEN5-110.271------
JAC1-150.189------
NYJ2-140.126------

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.99999% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 12, Final)
First to clinch Playoffs: New Orleans and Kansas City (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye and homefield in conference playoffs: Kansas City (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Sunday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 14, Final] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Thursday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Friday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 17] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Wildcard Saturday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Wildcard Sunday] Baltimore over New Orleans

2021-01-11

Super Bowl LV Projection, Wildcard Sunday

Baltimore over New Orleans

I went 2 for 3 on Sunday, only missing Cleveland vs Pittsburgh. The bad news is, the reseeding really messes with my picks in a few contests. I picked Buffalo and Baltimore to be in the AFC championship, and now they'll play earlier.

Here are my picks and rooting for Saturday.

Los Angeles at Green Bay (57%)
Part of me still wants to root for the Rams even though they left St. Louis, and part of me wants to root for them to lose. I'll call this one a push, and just enjoy the game

Baltimore (61%) at Buffalo
I don't feel a strong rooting interest in this one either. Maybe I'll root for Baltimore, simply to troll my good friend who is a Steelers fan.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL11-50.791-++++60.9441.2724.30
NO12-40.750++++++52.4129.2415.36
GB13-30.728++++++57.0927.6213.76
KC14-20.694++++++71.1329.6513.71
TB11-50.731-++++47.5925.4112.75
BUF13-30.709++++++39.0622.5410.80
LAR10-60.668-++++42.9117.737.62
CLE11-50.480-++++28.876.541.70
PIT12-40.707++++----
IND11-50.662-++----
SEA12-40.658++++----
MIA10-60.633------
TEN11-50.585++++----
ARI8-80.584------
WAS7-90.514++++----
CHI8-80.504-++----
SF6-100.472------
ATL4-120.466------
NE7-90.439------
LV8-80.427------
MIN7-90.424------
LAC7-90.421------
CAR5-110.395------
DAL6-100.365------
HOU4-120.359------
PHI4-11-10.335------
NYG6-100.322------
CIN4-11-10.279------
DET5-110.273------
DEN5-110.271------
JAC1-150.189------
NYJ2-140.126------

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.99999% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 12, Final)
First to clinch Playoffs: New Orleans and Kansas City (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye and homefield in conference playoffs: Kansas City (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Sunday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 14, Final] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Thursday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Friday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 17] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Wildcard Saturday] Baltimore over Green Bay

2021-01-10

Super Bowl LV Projection, Wildcard Saturday

Baltimore over Green Bay

I refused to call this Super Wildcard Weekend. If this is the new normal, it's just Wildcard Weekend. If 14 playoff teams was a one-year thing, then I'd be on board. Anyway, the favorites remained the same, as Green Bay didn't play due to a bye, and Baltimore plays Sunday.

All 3 of my picks were correct yesterday, even the very narrow LA over Seattle

Who am I rooting for in the second half of normal Wildcard Weekend?

Baltimore (73%) at Tennessee
Just because I enjoy things that upset the system, let's root for lower seeded Baltimore to beat Tennessee

Chicago at New Orleans (75%)
I don't think they have a chance, but let's go Bears!

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (72%)
These two teams are a mess for different reasons. I'll root for Pittsburgh primarily as a proxy for one of my closest football-fan friends.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL11-50.791-++72.9045.2828.4516.94
GB13-30.728++++++61.0030.3215.38
TB11-50.731-++++50.0827.2013.89
BUF13-30.709++++++48.9024.3811.86
NO12-40.750++++74.6639.1321.8311.66
KC14-20.694++++++51.5124.2211.37
PIT12-40.707++++72.3836.0816.968.22
LAR10-60.668-++++42.8218.578.12
TEN11-50.585++++27.1010.263.991.42
CHI8-80.504-++25.346.972.080.59
CLE11-50.480-++27.627.972.010.53
IND11-50.662-++----
SEA12-40.658++++----
MIA10-60.633------
ARI8-80.584------
WAS7-90.514++++----
SF6-100.472------
ATL4-120.466------
NE7-90.439------
LV8-80.427------
MIN7-90.424------
LAC7-90.421------
CAR5-110.395------
DAL6-100.365------
HOU4-120.359------
PHI4-11-10.335------
NYG6-100.322------
CIN4-11-10.279------
DET5-110.273------
DEN5-110.271------
JAC1-150.189------
NYJ2-140.126------

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.99999% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 12, Final)
First to clinch Playoffs: New Orleans and Kansas City (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye and homefield in conference playoffs: Kansas City (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Sunday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 14, Final] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Thursday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Friday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 17] Baltimore over Green Bay

2021-01-04

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 17

Baltimore over Green Bay

note: I completely forgot to post this, but I've backdated it to the normal time it would have posted just to avoid confusing myself later

With the regular season over, out of nowhere, Baltimore takes over the AFC lead. They had been lurking for awhile as the strongest team, but thanks to a slightly unlucky record comparatively, and a very strong division rival and conference overall, they hadn't even officially locked up a playoff spot until the last day. I've got them at 73% likely to win at Tennessee, who is also 11-5. And they'll be favored against anyone else they play, too, though not by as much unless it's Cleveland.

As is tradition, let's see who I'm rooting for.

Indianapolis at Buffalo (55%)
I used to favor Indianapolis a lot, which might have just been residual fandom from Manning and Faulk. This year I'd like Buffalo to win a playoff game for the first time in forever.

Los Angeles Rams (51%) at Seattle
I'm picking LA, just barely, but rooting for Seattle.

Tampa Bay (72%) at Washington
I always kind of liked Tampa in the days of Warren Sapp, so sure, let's root for them here.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL11-50.791-++72.9046.6829.6117.82
GB13-30.728++++++60.5331.5916.14
NO12-40.750++++74.6644.5424.5213.19
KC14-20.694++++++52.4624.4811.68
TB11-50.731-++72.0136.9019.8410.21
PIT12-40.707++++72.3834.6717.218.47
BUF13-30.709++++55.3327.0613.496.66
LAR10-60.668-++51.2022.7610.174.49
IND11-50.662-++44.6720.718.863.91
SEA12-40.658++++48.8020.159.033.88
TEN11-50.585++++27.1010.934.301.56
WAS7-90.514++++27.998.152.580.76
CHI8-80.504-++25.346.972.280.66
CLE11-50.480-++27.627.492.040.56
MIA10-60.633------
ARI8-80.584------
SF6-100.472------
ATL4-120.466------
NE7-90.439------
LV8-80.427------
MIN7-90.424------
LAC7-90.421------
CAR5-110.395------
DAL6-100.365------
HOU4-120.359------
PHI4-11-10.335------
NYG6-100.322------
CIN4-11-10.279------
DET5-110.273------
DEN5-110.271------
JAC1-150.189------
NYJ2-140.126------

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.99999% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 12, Final)
First to clinch Playoffs: New Orleans and Kansas City (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye and homefield in conference playoffs: Kansas City (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Sunday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 14, Final] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Thursday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Friday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay

2021-01-03

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 18

15 more bowls were played over the last week, bringing us to the total I predicted last week, 25. Of course there will be one more game played. One way or another, they'll get the national championship game in. #1 Alabama beat #6 Notre Dame soundly to remain on top, while #21 Ohio State climbed 9 spots by beating #5 Clemson. If Ohio State wins, this may be one of the rare years my rankings don't place the champion at #1. I tried to look through the history, but it appears I've missed posting the final results a few times. It has definitely happened at least once before, though.

1Alabama12-0
2Coastal Carolina11-1
3BYU11-1
4Louisiana10-1
5Clemson10-2
6Notre Dame10-2
7Iowa State9-3
8Cincinnati9-1
9Texas A&M9-1
10Oklahoma9-2
11Liberty10-1
12Appalachian State9-3
13Miami8-3
14Georgia8-2
15Oklahoma State8-3
16Army9-3
17Florida8-4
18NC State8-4
19North Carolina8-4
20Memphis8-3
21Ohio State7-0
22Texas7-3
23Georgia Southern8-5
24San Jose State7-1
25Ball State7-1
26SMU7-3
27UTSA7-5
28Marshall7-3
29Northwestern7-2
30UAB6-3
31Nevada7-2
32Tulsa6-3
33TCU6-4
34Georgia State6-4
35Auburn6-5
36West Virginia6-4
37UCF6-4
T-38Indiana6-2
T-38Pittsburgh6-5
40Buffalo6-1
41Boston College6-5
42Tulane6-6
43Iowa6-2
44Virginia Tech5-6
45Louisiana Tech5-5
46Virginia5-5
47Boise State5-2
48LSU5-5
49Troy5-6
50Ole Miss5-5
51Kentucky5-6
52Missouri5-5
53USC5-1
54Florida Atlantic5-4
55Hawai'i5-4
56Western Kentucky5-7
57Colorado4-2
58Kansas State4-6
59Wisconsin4-3
60Mississippi State4-7
61Wake Forest4-5
62Stanford4-2
63Texas Tech4-6
64San Diego State4-4
65Arkansas State4-7
66Oregon4-3
67Western Michigan4-2
68Toledo4-2
69South Alabama4-7
70Louisville4-7
71Arkansas3-7
72North Texas4-6
73Houston3-5
T-74Washington3-1
T-74Air Force3-3
76Penn State4-5
77Utah3-2
78Florida State3-6
79Kent State3-1
80Navy3-7
81Tennessee3-7
T-82Central Michigan3-3
T-82Miami (OH)2-1
84Middle Tennessee3-6
85East Carolina3-6
86Georgia Tech3-7
87Southern Mississippi3-7
88UTEP3-5
89Nebraska3-5
90Fresno State3-3
91Rice2-3
92UCLA3-4
93Minnesota3-4
94Maryland2-3
95Ohio2-1
96Baylor2-7
97Charlotte2-4
98Arizona State2-2
99Michigan State2-5
100Rutgers3-6
101Texas State2-10
102Eastern Michigan2-4
103Michigan2-4
104Purdue2-4
105South Carolina2-8
106New Mexico2-5
107Wyoming2-4
108Duke2-9
109Illinois2-6
110Oregon State2-5
111Washington State1-3
112Colorado State1-3
113California1-3
114Utah State1-5
115UMass0-4
116Temple1-6
117Syracuse1-10
118Akron1-5
119South Florida1-8
120Florida International0-5
121Kansas0-9
122UNLV0-6
123Arizona0-5
124Northern Illinois0-6
125Bowling Green0-5
126UL Monroe0-10
127Vanderbilt0-9


2020 History and #1s
Week 1 UAB
Week 2 Army
Week 3 Miami
Week 4 Miami
Week 5 SMU
Week 6 BYU
Week 7 BYU
Week 8 BYU
Week 9 BYU
Week 10 BYU
Week 11 BYU
Week 12 BYU
Week 13 Notre Dame
Week 14 Coastal Carolina
Week 15 Coastal Carolina
Week 16 Alabama
Week 17 Alabama

2020-12-29

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 16, Final

Kansas City over Green Bay

Buffalo beat New England, but they had already clinched the division and New England was already eliminated, so the game had no huge effect on the projections. Next year I think I might track the potential seeding better. I never publish it here, but I have more data output from my software that tells me the chances of each team getting homefield advantage, which is just the #1 seed. Tracking down to #7 should be pretty simple, and going further would just mean repeating the process that finds the next wildcard over and over. That would allow me to tell you my projection for who will get the #2 seed, Buffalo or Pittsburgh, much more easily. But, let's figure it out.

Since Buffalo beat Pittsburgh head to head, they have the tiebreaker, so Pittsburgh needs a win and a Buffalo loss. I give Buffalo a 54% chance of losing Sunday against Miami, and Pittsburgh has a 73% chance of beating Cleveland. Ignoring ties, that puts Pittsburgh at 39%, and Buffalo at 61%. That will determine who faces the #6 vs #7 team, but also if both teams win, who get to host the rematch...if I did all that bracket math right.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC14-10.720++++++56.3530.4016.65
GB12-30.698++++91.0252.4627.6713.78
TB10-50.708-++71.5338.5621.0610.74
NO11-40.706++++68.4739.2621.0010.65
BAL10-50.735-96.2657.8531.6417.6810.01
PIT12-30.709++++59.8032.7616.468.80
MIA10-50.697-90.8152.2125.4612.756.63
SEA11-40.651++++56.5426.7512.545.58
BUF12-30.667++++49.8623.4810.825.25
LAR9-60.641-84.4442.0618.728.783.81
IND10-50.63624.9178.9934.2114.466.262.83
TEN10-50.58275.0988.7932.9112.334.621.83
ARI8-70.602-45.8119.728.113.411.35
CHI8-70.544-69.7524.398.453.171.08
WAS6-90.50065.1065.1019.686.332.090.63
CLE10-50.476-45.1413.163.521.010.31
DAL6-90.37419.7619.764.070.900.210.04
NYG5-100.31415.1415.142.510.450.080.01
ATL4-110.498------
SF6-90.478------
CAR5-100.448------
LV7-80.425------
MIN6-90.420------
NE6-90.409------
LAC6-90.389------
HOU4-110.360------
PHI4-10-10.349------
CIN4-10-10.344------
DET5-100.274------
DEN5-100.271------
JAC1-140.214------
NYJ2-130.151------

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.99999% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 12, Final)
First to clinch Playoffs: New Orleans and Kansas City (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye and homefield in conference playoffs: Kansas City (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Sunday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 14, Final] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Thursday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Friday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay