2016-06-28

eBay Wins #231

Today I've got two more eBay penny cards, which are fairly ordinary, but caused me to learn a lesson.

1988 Topps Traded
#29T Pete Smith
#111T Kevin Coffman
How do I know these are 1988 Topps Traded and 1988 Topps Traded Tiffany cards? The fronts are whiter and the backs are brightly colored, just like the regular 1988 Topps Tiffany set. The rarity of Tiffany means I can be fairly sure these aren't those since I picked them up so cheaply, but the key to certainty is apparently found on the back.

1988 Topps Traded
#29T Pete Smith
#111T Kevin Coffman
Those two asterisks on the bottom left indicate a non-Tiffany card, at least according to a few collector-maintained sites and videos. I think it all checks out, but I'm sure I'll revisit this question every time I get a brightly colored 1988 card and check through the cards in my collection to make sure they're all sorted correctly.


eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought4176
Total Spent$56.82
Per Card1.361 cents
Change0 cents

2016-06-26

Zistle Trade #25

This was a small trade on Zistle where I think I got the better end of the deal objectively. But, the trader was a team collector of another team and needed some 1994s I had to spare, so I got these 1981s in return.

1981 Topps
#152 John Urrea
#348 Bob Sykes
#635 Bobby Bonds
I must admit I don't really know much about John Urrea or Bob Sykes; they were on my wantlist because they are Cardinals. And I even forget Bobby Bonds was a Cardinal every time until I'm reminded by seeing a card of his. A lot of that is because these cards are a bit older than I am.

I now have 5 Cardinals from this set, but there's still 21 more to go. That's probably a team set I won't ever finish without purchasing the cards individually, but they'll stay on my wantlist just in case someone offers another trade like this one.

2016-06-24

eBay Wins #230

This may look like it belongs it my last 2 eBay posts, but it's a Topps Tiffany card. I suppose I should have scanned the back to show off the bright orange background, because you can't tell much difference from the front scan.

1988 Topps Tiffany
#305 Steve Sax
I've got a smattering of this Tiffany cards, but this is the first from 1988 for me. They seem to be relatively rare compared to the ubiquitous flagship sets, in that I don't find myself drowning in piles of them. All in all, not bad for a penny.



eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought4174
Total Spent$56.80
Per Card1.361 cents
Change0 cents

2016-06-22

Can't Stop Promoting Sport Card Collectors Just Yet

OK, this is the last one for now. If you're not in Sport Card Collectors' multi-week Sports Challenge contest, you're only about 10 points behind the leader, so now's your chance to get in and play with the rest of us.


Week 2's games have been posted, so with perfect picks you can grab 10 points right there. Of course, I plan to have perfect picks this week too, so you won't quite be in the lead just yet, but the contest will run for 4 weeks total.

2016-06-21

More Promoting, I Couldn't Resist - Sport Card Collectors Again

I thought about not promoting this contest, once again at Sport Card Collectors, since I've been doing that so much lately, but with the prize being a fairly rare Kolten Wong relic, I had to grab any extra entries I could.  Take a look at this.

2016 Topps Tier One
Tier One Relics #T1R-KW Kolten Wong #064/199

Maybe it's not as exciting if you're not a Cardinals fan, but that's a beauty of a card to me. Go enter for your chance at it too.

2016-06-20

Yet Another Sport Card Collectors Contest

There are so many giveaways going on at Sport Card Collectors they're getting hard to keep track of. The latest is one is on a review post of 2016 Topps Series 2, released just a few days ago.

The prize this time is not from the box itself though, it's cards from your favorite team, so I figure, why not enter. If a few more people get in there will be 2 winners, and if a lot more do, there will be 3.

Go check it out here.

2016-06-18

2016 Stanley Cup Projections Recap

I only started tracking my Stanley Cup projections right before the end of the 2nd round, so I'll only include the final two rounds in my recap. I started off with the right winner, as Pittsburgh was projected most likely to win at the beginning of the Conference finals.  But as they lost and other teams won, St Louis, Tampa, and San Jose were all favored at one point or another


Worst position for Pittsburgh:
16% on May 20, down 2-1 in the Conference finals


Best position for San Jose:
47.3% on May 26, having won the Western Conference and still waiting for game 7 in the Eastern Conference.


Best position for a Conference Finals loser:
Tampa Bay, with 34.7% on May 23, up 3-2 in the Conference Finals


And here are the final playoff results for 2016.


Pittsburgh over San Jose

Stanley Cup Finals
SJS 2-4 PIT

Conference Finals
TBL 3-4 PIT
SJS 4-2 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 4-2 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT

2016-06-16

Another Sport Card Collectors Contest

I've got another contest to promote at the same blog as my last post, Sport Card Collectors.

This is a longer contest that will go for a few weeks, where you'll get points by picking games. Week 1's games are all this weekend, but you'll need to enter (on this post) by 8pm tomorrow for your picks to count.

There are a bunch of prizes, so check out that first link to see them all. Good luck!

2016-06-14

2016 Topps Archives Contest at Sports Card Collectors

Sports Card Collectors is having an autograph giveaway from 2016 Topps Archives. Just go leave a comment to enter.

2016 Topps Archives
Fan Favorites Autographs #FFA-RJ Randy Jones
The prize is this Randy Jones autograph. He played from 1973-82, so a bit before my time, but I'd still like to add this autograph to my collection.

2016-06-12

Zistle Trade #24

I made another smallish trade on Zistle, for some needs from the overproduction era. A few are base cards, but 6 of the 9 are either from traded sets or inserts, so they're a little harder to track down.

1988 Fleer #276 Jose Canseco
1988 Fleer Update #U-68 Todd Stottlemyre
1989 Donruss Bonus MVPs #BC-15 Cal Ripken
1989 Score Young Superstars II #20 Todd Stottlemyre
1989 Upper Deck #674 Ozzie Smith
1989 Upper Deck #754 Todd Zeile
1990 Donruss Bonus MVPs #BC-10 Ryne Sandberg
1991 Topps Traded #83T Phil Nevin
1993 Topps Gold #3 Ryne Sandberg
I've long been working on the 1990 Donruss set, and Ryne Sandberg was one of the two Bonus MVPs I didn't have yet. I've got the other on the way in another trade, too, so that insert set is nearly complete along with the base set, which I think is almost complete except for some errors and variations. I have a lot of 1989 Donruss base cards, but not many bonus MVPs, so the Ripken is a good get for me. The two Todd Stottlemyre cards are just because I collect Todd Stottlemyre, much like the Ozzie, Todd Zeile, and Jose Canseco cards. I put the Team USA cards from 1991 Topps Traded on my list after getting a few of them in the past and liking them, and finally there's a 1993 Topps Gold, also of Ryne Sandberg. I've still got over 780 of those to go to complete that set.

2016-06-10

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, June 10

Pittsburgh over San Jose

Stanley Cup Finals
SJS 2-3 PIT

Conference Finals
TBL 3-4 PIT
SJS 4-2 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 4-2 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthCup
PIT0.59377.7
SJS0.56822.3

After 5 goals in the first period, I was wondering if this game might wind up 8-7 or something outlandish like that, but the 3-2 score held all the way until San Jose scored an empty net goal to make it 4-2. They've got a fighting chance, but of course every game is an elimination game, so they'll have to keep winning. There's another 2-day break for travel back to San Jose, and to avoid stepping on the NBA Finals I suppose.

2016-06-09

eBay Wins #229

Today I have the rest of the 1988 Topps that I started in my last eBay post, with plenty more Cardinals.

1988 Topps
#534 John Wathan
#536 John Morris
#544 Jim Traber
#546 John Candelaria
#549 Albert Hall/Dale Murphy/Ken Griffey/Gerald Perry
#557 Craig Reynolds (x2)
#600 Mike Schmidt
#613 Bobby Thigpen
#616 Jay Aldrich
John Morris is obviously a Cardinal, but so is Gerald Perry, in that Braves Leaders card I sort of forgot was horizontal until I started writing this post. Whoops. Just turn your head a little, it's good for your neck after hours at the computer.


1988 Topps
#617 Oddibe McDowell
#618 Cecil Fielder
#619 Mike Dunne
#621 Gene Nelson (x8)
#629 Kelly Downs
#632 Steve Shields
#642 Bob Dernier
#643 Rocky Childress
#658 Tim Conroy
I know Cecil Fielder played for the Blue Jays, but it still hits me oddly every time I see it. He's supposed to be a Tiger. Every player "belongs" on their 1992 or 1993 team in my mind, because that's when I started watching baseball. And yes, Gene Nelson was another multicard player from that A's lot I bought. That Bob Dernier card is a prime example of why I need to get through all these eBay cards and put them in my collection. I traded for it pretty recently, even though I've had these cards sitting in my "to post" box for who knows how long.


1988 Topps
#662 Jim Rice
#667 Luis Quinones
#697 Steve Lombardozzi
#700 George Brett
#702 Mike Gallego (x2)
#718 Mike Felder
#720 Tim Raines
#724 Danny Tartabull
#729 George Bell/Fred McGriff
Mike Gallego was one of Tony La Russa's favorites he eventually brought over to the Cardinals. He didn't put up fantastic numbers, but I remember him being a solid bench player.

1988 Topps
#740 Rick Sutcliffe
#752 Mark Grant
#754 Mike LaCoss
#761 Tony Armas
#768 Dickie Noles
#769 Cecil Cooper
#779 Tom Glavine
#784 Joe Sambito
#785 Alvin Davis
Rick Sutcliffe was probably best known as a Cub, but he finished his career in St. Louis, making 14 starts in 1994.

1988 Topps
#791 Ted Simmons
I could claim I left Ted here alone since he was a Cardinal, but really it was just poor planning on my part. When I get a giant stack to scan, sometimes I lose track, and don't count how many cards are left until too close to the end to even it out nicely with some scans of 8 instead of 9. I believe there were 10 left when I realized my blunder.

Once again these were from the half-cent box, knocking my per-card average down by almost one hundredth of a penny, which sounds like a ridiculous thing to track when you say it like that!

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought4173
Total Spent$56.79
Per Card1.361 cents
Change-0.009 cents

2016-06-07

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, June 7

Pittsburgh over San Jose

Stanley Cup Finals
SJS 1-3 PIT

Conference Finals
TBL 3-4 PIT
SJS 4-2 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 4-2 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthCup
PIT0.59390.5
SJS0.5689.5

With a 3-1 lead, Pittsburgh is now over 90% likely to be the Stanley Cup champions this year. After watching most of this series I'd say that's consistent with what I've seen, as they appear to be dominating the games despite the relatively close scores. The teams have 2 days off to travel back to Pittsburgh, and Game 5 will be Thursday night.

2016-06-05

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, June 5

Pittsburgh over San Jose

Stanley Cup Finals
SJS 1-2 PIT

Conference Finals
TBL 3-4 PIT
SJS 4-2 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 4-2 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthCup
PIT0.59372.5
SJS0.56827.5

San Jose won in overtime last night, and this series will have to go to at least 5 games. I almost missed the game winning goal, since I was trying to get some stuff done and missed almost the first 10 minutes of overtime. Luckily they stretched this game a little longer than game 2.

Pittsburgh is still nearly a 3 in 4 favorite. Tomorrow San Jose will try to win game 4 at home, then they'd need to take at least one in Pittsburgh to win the cup.

2016-06-04

Another Sports Card Info Soccer Win

Just about a year ago, I won a soccer contest at Sports Card Info, and now I've won another one.

2016 Topps MLS - Base Autographs #85 Dominic Oduro #24/350
I've started paying more attention to MLS over the past year, as there are rumblings of St. Louis getting an expansion team. It won't be here for awhile, but with the Rams having left, there may be a little room in my sports watching schedule by the time they come around.

Thanks to Sports Card Info for the contest!

2016-06-02

2016 College World Series Contest

It's College World Series time again, which means the annual contest at Autographed Cards is on. I'm a little late promoting this year, but you've got until 11am Central Time tomorrow (Friday) to enter phase 1, which can give you a few extra points to help give you a head start for the main part of the contest. Right now, you'll just need to pick the 8 teams that will advance from each 8-team Super-Regional.

This is the 7th annual contest, and my 6th time participating. I'm pretty sure I'm due for a big win. SLU is not in the field yet again, nor is Mizzou, so I'll be rooting for Southeast Missouri State to win their Super-Regional as I watch the contest unfold.

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, June 2

Pittsburgh over San Jose

Stanley Cup Finals
SJS 0-2 PIT

Conference Finals
TBL 3-4 PIT
SJS 4-2 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 4-2 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthCup
PIT0.59383.2
SJS0.56816.8

San Jose isn't out of it yet, but a 2-0 deficit puts them down to about a 1 in 6 chance of winning their first Stanley Cup. They took Pittsburgh to overtime last night, but gave up the winning goal just a few minutes in. I sometimes feel like overtimes shouldn't be sudden death, because a lucky bounce can change the outcome of a game. On the other hand, if 5, 10, or 20 minutes were mandated to be played, it's possible that there would be another goal and a tie at the end of overtime, necessitating yet another extra period, and resulting in increasingly sloppy play as the players tire out. So maybe the solution is somewhere in the middle, but I'm not sure what that looks like.

2016-05-31

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 31

Pittsburgh over San Jose

Stanley Cup Finals
SJS 0-1 PIT

Conference Finals
TBL 3-4 PIT
SJS 4-2 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 4-2 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthCup
PIT0.59370.3
SJS0.56829.7

Pittsburgh took game 1, and has a 70% chance of winning the cup. San Jose will try to tie up the series tomorrow night, and avoid going back to San Jose down 0-2. 

2016-05-29

eBay Wins #228

After all that hockey prognosticating, I'm back with some eBay bargains. This time it's another classic junk wax set, 1988 Topps. I actually bought a factory set of this awhile ago, so these will all go in my trade list, where I'm sure they'll stay practically forever. I really need to start paying attention to the sets I've already completed when searching for cheap cards.

1988 Topps
#2 Don Mattingly
#8 Kevin Elster
#67 Ken Oberkfell
#77 Tom O'Malley
#82 Darrel Akerfelds
#87 Mike Mason
#102 Barry Larkin
#103 Curt Young (x9)
#117 Jim Steels
That's no typo, I actually have nine copies of the Curt Young card. Several (or maybe all, it's hard to keep track) came in a large lot of A's cards I purchased. Some of  the cards in this post came from 3 unopened packs that were used to fulfill "random cards" purchases, including the Barry Larkin.

1988 Topps
#124 Ray Knight
#131 Don Schulze
#132 Donnie Hill (x2)
#149 Ken Howell
#158 Tim Hulett
#175 Kevin Bass
#176 Jeff Reed
#177 Frank Tanana (x2)
#180 Terry Kennedy
According to my blogger tags, this is the first Terry Kennedy card I've posted, which I find hard to believe. He played for the Cardinals at the beginning of his career in the late 1970s.

1988 Topps
#181 David Cone
#186 Rafael Palmeiro
#189 Wes Gardner
#193 Brian Fisher
#214 Dave Schmidt
#230 Pat Tabler
#232 Bob James
#241 Damaso Garcia
#245 Rich Gedman
Dave Cone? When was he Dave Cone?

1988 Topps
#259 Ron Kittle
#260 Vince Coleman
#268 Bruce Ruffin
#271 Ken Gerhart (x2)
#282 Pat Perry
#284 Larry Bowa
#286 Chuck Crim
#324 Danny Jackson (x2)
#329 Chris Speier
If this were a tic-tac-toe board, I've won with three Cardinals right down the middle column, and a bonus Chris Speier to boot.

1988 Topps
#337 Jim Gantner
#338 Brian Holton
#339 Kurt Stillwell
#349 Bob Walk
#360 Tony Gwynn
#361 Greg Maddux
#366 Chet Lemon
#373 Checklist 265-396
#379 Rafael Ramirez
Tony Gwynn was another card that came in one of the unopened packs. That's not a card, even in a junk wax set, that any seller would let go for a bargain price.

1988 Topps
#382 Keith Miller
#393 Matt Nokes
#400 Ozzie Smith
#405 Dwight Gooden
#428 John Shelby (x2)
#430 Glenn Davis
#445 Mike Krukow
#448 Mike Davison
#452 Willie Wilson
I'm always glad to get another Ozzie, especially when it's cheap.

1988 Topps
#454 Marvell Wynne
#458 Ron Hassey
#461 Danny Darwin
#463 Fred McGriff
#475 Pete Rose
#490 Larry Parrish
#496 Guy Hoffman
#524 Gary Lucas
#526 Juan Berenguer
Fred McGriff is one of those borderline hall of famers, and his vote totals have reflected that so far. I don't think he'll make it in, unless there's some overhaul to the process very soon. While were overhauling, let's put in Pete Rose, too.

I've got some more 88s, but too many to tag all the Cardinals in one post. This one covered 76 total cards including the duplicates, and came out of my half-cent box, adding 38 cents to my Total Spent, and knocking down my average to 1.37 cents. We'll take it down a little more with the rest of the 88s next time.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought4127
Total Spent$56.56
Per Card1.37 cents
Change-0.017 cents

2016-05-27

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 27

Pittsburgh over San Jose

Stanley Cup Finals
SJS 0-0 PIT

Conference Finals
TBL 3-4 PIT
SJS 4-2 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 4-2 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthCup
PIT0.59357.0
SJS0.56843.0

Pittsburgh held off Tampa Bay, and now they've advanced to the finals to face San Jose. With home ice, I have them with a 57% chance of winning the cup, so not a complete walkover. If home ice were reversed, they'd still be favored at 53.9%, and if you think home ice is meaningless, which is nearly has been during these playoffs, they're still 55.5% likely to be the winners.

2016-05-26

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 26

Pittsburgh over San Jose

Conference Finals
TBL 3-3 PIT
SJS 4-2 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 4-2 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthFinalsCup
SJS0.568100.047.3
PIT0.59358.333.2
TBL0.56141.719.5

The Blues had a great season, and advanced further than they have in 30 years, having last made it to game 7 of the conference finals in 1986. The Sharks are now the first team in the finals. Their opponent will be determined tonight in Pittsburgh, a game I have as 58.3% likely to go to the Penguins.

Also, yesterday the header of my projection said Pittsburgh over Tampa Bay, something that clearly won't be the result of the cup finals. It should have been San Jose.

2016-05-25

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 25

Pittsburgh over Tampa Bay

Conference Finals
TBL 3-3 PIT
SJS 3-2 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 4-2 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthFinalsCup
SJS0.56876.736.3
PIT0.59358.333.2
TBL0.56141.719.8
STL0.55423.310.7

My projection hasn't been very stable this year, because each series keeps flip flopping back and forth. Pittsburgh tied their series and will be 58.3% likely to win Game 7 tomorrow. Tonight St. Louis will have to win in San Jose to force a Game 7 back home. They've been alternately dominant and walked over in this series, so pretty much anything could happen, but I have them with just a 43.5% chance of winning tonight.

2016-05-24

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 24

San Jose over Tampa Bay

Conference Finals
TBL 3-2 PIT
SJS 3-2 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 4-2 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthFinalsCup
SJS0.56876.738.7
TBL0.56171.934.1
PIT0.59328.116.0
STL0.55423.311.2

St. Louis lost 6-3, but it was 4-3 when they pulled the goalie, so the game was a bit closer than it looks in the scorebook. Still, a loss is a loss, and they'll have to win the next two to advance to the finals. I've got them down to just an 11.2% chance of winning the cup. I suppose I should root for Pittsburgh tonight, so the Eastern Conference champion won't have a huge rest advantage should St. Louis pull out a game 7 win.

2016-05-23

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 23

St. Louis over Tampa Bay

Conference Finals
TBL 3-2 PIT
SJS 2-2 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 4-2 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthFinalsCup
TBL0.56171.934.7
SJS0.56849.725.0
STL0.55450.324.2
PIT0.59328.116.1

With a road win in Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay is now the overall favorite to win the Cup. But, they won't be favored against either Western conference team, so my "Winner vs Loser" projection has the 3rd most likely team as the winner, because that's the most likely matchup at this point. But, if I were simply picking the team most likely to win, it would be Tampa Bay.

Tonight's game will see one of the Western Conference teams take a 3-2 lead, one win from making it to the finals.

2016-05-22

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 22

Pittsburgh over St. Louis

Conference Finals
TBL 2-2 PIT
SJS 2-2 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 4-2 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59357.432.8
SJS0.56849.723.5
STL0.55450.323.2
TBL0.56142.620.6

The last 8 games have just reduced the 7-game series to best-of-3 series, although now the Blues have a slight advantage over San Jose. That's because they now have home ice in 67% of games instead of just 57%. They showed last night that they still know how to score, putting up 6 goals against San Jose. At this point they have a real chance of setting the record for most playoff games in a single season, which stands at 26 by 4 different teams since the playoffs were expanded to 4 best-of-seven series. Only one of those teams won the cup.

Tonight the Eastern conference will untie their series in Pittsburgh, and I'll be rooting for the weaker-on-paper Lightning.

2016-05-21

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 21

Pittsburgh over San Jose

Conference Finals
TBL 2-2 PIT
SJS 2-1 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 4-2 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthFinalsCup
SJS0.56871.033.7
PIT0.59357.432.8
TBL0.56142.620.3
STL0.55429.013.3

I always feel the need to explain this situation, but maybe it's more obvious than I think. Despite San Jose being the most likely team to win the cup, the most likely winner-loser matchup is Pittsburgh over San Jose. That's because Pittsburgh is favored in the East, and would be favored over either Western Conference team. But, San Jose is much closer to advancing to the finals right now, because they are up 2-1 while the East is tied at 2 each.

Hopefully tonight both series will be tied at 2-2, as St. Louis tries to break their 2 game scoreless streak.

2016-05-20

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 20

Pittsburgh over San Jose

Conference Finals
TBL 1-2 PIT
SJS 2-1 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 4-2 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59373.642.0
SJS0.56871.032.5
STL0.55429.013.0
TBL0.56126.412.5

The Blues have now lost 2 games in a row, and look like they might not score another goal this postseason. They're not out yet though, with a 29% chance of winning the series. A game 4 win would bring it to a best of 3 with home ice advantage returning to St. Louis. Tonight Tampa Bay will try to even things up in Pittsburgh.

2016-05-19

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 19

Pittsburgh over San Jose

Conference Finals
TBL 1-2 PIT
SJS 1-1 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 4-2 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59373.642.0
SJS0.56854.625.0
STL0.55445.420.3
TBL0.56126.412.7

Pittsburgh won a road game in Tampa last night, and leads the series 2-1. I now have them at 42% likely to win the cup, and Tampa down to 12.7%, just over 1 in 8. Both Western conference teams took a slight hit too, since they're now slightly likelier to face a tougher opponent.

2016-05-18

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 18

Pittsburgh over San Jose

Conference Finals
TBL 1-1 PIT
SJS 1-1 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 4-2 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59354.331.0
SJS0.56854.626.1
TBL0.56145.722.0
STL0.55445.421.0

After 4 total games, both series are tied 1-1, and we've come full circle in the projections, back to the pre-round projection of Pittsburgh over San Jose. The home teams are slightly worse off, having given up home ice advantage, so Tampa is now up to third most likely to win the cup, and St. Louis drops to 4th.

Also for you eagle-eyes out there, my cup odds don't add up to 100.0 because of rounding.

2016-05-17

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 17

Pittsburgh over St. Louis

Conference Finals
TBL 1-1 PIT
SJS 0-1 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 4-2 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59354.331.0
STL0.55462.929.1
TBL0.56145.722.3
SJS0.56837.117.7

Pittsburgh is back in the driver's seat, although they've effectively lost their home ice advantage, with the series now a best-of-5 with up to 3 games in Tampa. St. Louis will try to keep theirs tonight in game 2 for the Western Conference.

2016-05-16

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 16

St. Louis over Tampa Bay

Conference Finals
TBL 1-0 PIT
SJS 0-1 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 4-2 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthFinalsCup
STL0.55462.929.7
TBL0.56159.428.9
PIT0.59340.623.2
SJS0.56837.118.2

There's nothing more tense in hockey than having a 1-goal lead with about 2 minutes to go, and the opposing team pulls their goalie. The Blues survived that last night and came away with a game 1 win.

With these games being so evenly matched, there are going to be quiet a few slight upsets, which then shuffle the teams I've sorted here by likelihood to win the Stanley Cup. St. Louis is on top for now, with a 29.7% chance of winning their first cup in history, but Tampa Bay is right behind them. Tonight the Eastern Conference finals will continue in Pittsburgh.

2016-05-14

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 14

Tampa Bay over San Jose

Conference Finals
TBL 1-0 PIT
SJS 0-0 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 4-2 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthFinalsCup
TBL0.56159.428.6
SJS0.56851.625.4
PIT0.59340.623.2
STL0.55448.422.8

St. Louis went from the 3rd most likely to least likely team to win the Stanley Cup, even though their chances actually went up a bit. That's because the previously lowest team, Tampa Bay, is the team who won. So while their own chances went up, the chances for the West went up as well, as they are more likely to face a weaker team. Pittsburgh suffered all of the losses, of course. Now, I'm not sure these numbers will mean much as long as Tampa's involved, because they lost their top goaltender Ben Bishop last night - the only non-strategic reason I was rooting for them. For some reason there's an off day with no hockey today, and tomorrow St. Louis hosts San Jose to open the Western Conference finals.