2017-11-21

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 11, Final

Jacksonville over Philadelphia

Two 6-4 teams playing on Monday night didn't affect anything at the top, and Jacksonville and Philadelphia remain favorites in their conferences.

I pointed out yesterday that Cleveland is not actually eliminated, and in fact they still aren't. I was able to create a scenario that gets them in the playoffs, but I wound up forcing every single game involving at least one AFC team in order to make it happen. That's not to say every game is required to go the right way, but I'd bet most of them are. I generally start searching for the scenario by making a duplicate of my games file, forcing Cleveland to win the rest of their games, then forcing all remaining AFC-NFC matchups to be won by the NFC team. Then the teams that Cleveland can't catch, as well as those that can't catch Cleveland (at 6-10), are all forced to win the rest of their games. That step may generate more 11 loss teams, so it gets repeated as long as necessary. At that point, there usually isn't much left in the way of intuition, so it comes down to checking the numbers for each game going each way, and keeping the more favorable result before moving to the next game.

In short. Cleveland isn't going to make the playoffs, unless most of approximately 60 games all go their way.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
JAC7-30.71191.4199.6187.5854.1632.7717.97
PHI9-10.70699.7099.9294.2755.3031.0617.47
NE8-20.64898.1199.7289.7049.2224.4511.66
NO8-20.67777.3796.8672.2338.0819.4810.32
PIT8-20.63895.1099.7483.5743.2021.169.86
LAR7-30.69477.5088.6060.3632.2817.339.50
MIN8-20.64585.5496.7877.7337.9817.728.75
KC6-40.57985.4991.3154.6822.729.643.91
BAL5-50.5984.8368.1933.9314.776.652.83
CAR7-30.57617.9572.0734.3713.575.462.31
DET6-40.56713.8051.2822.108.403.331.38
SEA6-40.58822.4240.3418.577.533.151.37
ATL6-40.5444.6133.8814.055.031.890.74
LAC4-60.56210.7524.7011.574.591.880.73
TEN6-40.4407.9456.3119.185.601.680.48
HOU4-60.5090.6513.585.251.860.680.23
BUF5-50.4171.7825.938.162.200.620.16
DAL5-50.5000.308.582.880.920.310.11
GB5-50.4450.666.972.080.560.160.05
NYJ4-60.4540.034.741.590.480.150.04
OAK4-60.4143.106.602.200.590.160.04
CIN4-60.4260.064.651.430.400.120.03
WAS4-60.4490.002.680.780.210.060.02
TB4-60.4470.061.840.540.140.040.01
DEN3-70.3520.661.590.440.100.020.00
MIA4-60.3080.082.680.570.110.020.00
IND3-70.3180.010.650.140.030.010.00
ARI4-60.3450.080.190.040.010.000.00
CHI3-70.3940.000.010.000.000.000.00
SF1-90.333------
NYG2-80.326-0.000.000.000.00-
CLE0-100.291------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia

2017-11-20

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 11, Sunday

Jacksonville over Philadelphia

A loss by LA and a big win by Philadelphia has vaulted them to the top of the NFC. Jacksonville remains the AFC favorite. After Pittsburgh did it Thursday, 3 more teams crossed the 99% playoff probability mark, and Philadelphia added another 9, up over 99.9%.

I give Cleveland a 13% chance of going winless now that they are 0-10. But, they are actually not completely out of the playoffs yet. I may try to work up the exact scenario for tomorrow, since it will likely take a whole lot of games going the right way to set up the right tiebreakers, although no tie games are required since this simulation did not include ties.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
JAC7-30.71191.3199.6087.5454.1332.7517.97
PHI9-10.70699.7099.9193.7654.7930.7917.32
NE8-20.64898.1199.7289.6649.1824.4411.66
NO8-20.67778.7096.6571.8437.8919.3810.26
PIT8-20.63895.1099.7483.6343.2421.189.87
LAR7-30.69467.7987.3958.6931.3316.849.23
MIN8-20.64485.5996.6377.1737.6617.578.68
KC6-40.57985.4891.3054.6822.729.643.92
BAL5-50.5984.8368.2133.9514.786.652.83
SEA6-30.59832.1660.2129.4712.295.242.34
CAR7-30.57618.2470.4833.5313.265.332.26
DET6-40.56713.7548.7921.068.023.181.32
LAC4-60.56210.7524.6911.564.591.880.73
TEN6-40.4408.0356.4719.245.621.690.48
ATL5-40.5403.0021.058.553.031.130.44
HOU4-60.5090.6613.635.271.870.680.23
BUF5-50.4171.7825.728.102.180.620.16
DAL5-50.5000.308.052.720.870.290.10
GB5-50.4450.666.591.970.530.150.05
NYJ4-60.4540.034.741.590.480.150.04
OAK4-60.4143.116.612.200.590.160.04
CIN4-60.4260.064.661.440.400.120.03
WAS4-60.4490.002.530.740.200.060.02
TB4-60.4470.061.540.450.120.040.01
DEN3-70.3520.661.590.440.100.020.00
MIA4-60.3080.082.680.570.110.020.00
IND3-70.3190.010.650.140.030.010.00
ARI4-60.3450.050.160.040.010.000.00
CHI3-70.3940.000.010.000.000.000.00
SF1-90.333------
NYG2-80.327-0.000.000.000.00-
CLE0-100.291-0.00----

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville

2017-11-19

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 12

The top 8 teams in my rankings all won and all stayed in position. I caught a little of both Miami and Wisconsin's games, and just for fun I rooted against them both. I've got 2 SEC teams in my top 3, but it's entirely possible they'll play each other for the SEC title, knocking one down a bit.

Everyone in Missouri was sure they were sunk earlier in the season, but now they've got a real chance at going 7-5, which I think pretty much guarantees a bowl appearance. 6-6 is usually considered bowl-eligible, but sometimes even 5-7 teams make it if there aren't enough 6-win teams.

Georgia Southern won a game, and UTEP is now the only winless team, and a solid #130. They've got one last game, against 7-4 #62 UAB, so I'd wager we're looking at an 0-12 season for UTEP.

1Alabama11-0
2Wisconsin11-0
3Georgia10-1
4Miami10-0
5Clemson10-1
6USC10-2
7UCF10-0
8Oklahoma10-1
9Penn State9-2
10Auburn9-2
11Ohio State9-2
12Washington State9-2
13TCU9-2
14Washington9-2
15Memphis9-1
16Boise State9-2
17Notre Dame8-3
18San Diego State9-2
19Toledo9-2
20Michigan State8-3
21Mississippi State8-3
22South Carolina8-3
23Florida Atlantic8-3
24Stanford8-3
25South Florida9-1
26Virginia Tech8-3
27LSU8-3
28Michigan8-3
29Northwestern8-3
30Oklahoma State8-3
31North Texas8-3
32NC State7-4
33Northern Illinois8-3
34Navy7-3
35Troy8-2
36Wake Forest7-4
37Texas A&M7-4
38Army8-3
39Fresno State8-3
40Iowa State7-4
41Ohio8-3
42Kentucky7-4
43Arizona7-4
44Louisville7-4
45Iowa6-5
46Boston College6-5
47Oregon6-5
48West Virginia7-4
49Wyoming7-4
50Marshall7-4
51Arizona State6-5
52Central Michigan7-4
53SMU6-5
54Southern Mississippi7-4
55Texas6-5
56Houston6-4
57Missouri6-5
58Florida Intl6-4
59Virginia6-5
60Kansas State6-5
61Colorado State7-5
62UAB7-4
63Akron6-5
64UCLA5-6
65Georgia Tech5-5
66Western Michigan6-5
67California5-6
68Utah State6-5
69Tulane5-6
70UT San Antonio6-4
71Georgia State6-3
72Texas Tech5-6
73Purdue5-6
74Ole Miss5-6
75Utah5-6
76Indiana5-6
77Temple5-6
78Duke5-6
79Colorado5-6
80Arkansas State6-3
81Appalachian State6-4
82Florida4-6
83Florida State4-6
84Western Kentucky6-5
85Maryland4-7
86Minnesota5-6
87Louisiana Tech5-6
88Syracuse4-7
89Buffalo5-6
90Old Dominion5-6
91Arkansas4-7
92Nebraska4-7
93UNLV5-6
94Tennessee4-7
95Vanderbilt4-7
96Middle Tennessee5-6
97Louisiana5-5
98Pittsburgh4-7
99Air Force4-7
100Eastern Michigan4-7
101Rutgers4-7
102Miami (OH)4-7
103Louisiana Monroe4-6
104Cincinnati3-8
105North Carolina3-8
106South Alabama4-7
107East Carolina3-8
108Connecticut3-8
109New Mexico State4-6
110UMass4-7
111New Mexico3-8
112Idaho3-7
113Hawai'i3-8
114BYU3-9
115Tulsa2-9
116Bowling Green2-9
117Kent State2-9
118Nevada2-9
119Illinois2-9
120Ball State2-9
121Oregon State1-10
122Coastal Carolina2-9
123Kansas1-10
124Baylor1-10
125Texas State2-9
126Charlotte1-10
127Georgia Southern1-9
128Rice1-10
129San Jose State1-11
130UTEP0-11

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia
Week 4 Georgia
Week 5 Georgia
Week 6 Georgia
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Georgia
Week 10 Georgia
Week 11 Alabama

2017-11-17

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville

The Rams took over the NFC again, and I'm assuming it's because Tennessee was weakened by their loss to Pittsburgh Thursday night, favoring LA more in that game than before. By virtue of getting to play early this week, Pittsburgh is our first team to 99% chance of making the playoffs. Also, Cleveland has joined San Francisco in being eliminated from their division, but is still not quite mathematically out of the playoffs.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
JAC6-30.68387.5298.8484.9751.8530.8616.43
LAR7-20.70177.6193.6074.6043.5824.8814.54
PHI8-10.66694.7598.4587.3447.8424.7813.53
PIT8-20.63897.6099.7487.8049.2025.7312.42
NO7-20.67374.7593.2271.0838.4120.3611.28
NE7-20.60588.3998.0179.4940.4819.358.67
MIN7-20.60874.1086.8859.1426.6811.945.78
KC6-30.58091.4195.1666.2430.0313.635.76
SEA6-30.59822.2956.1829.4712.875.722.71
CAR7-30.57621.3866.4833.5713.835.792.62
BAL4-50.5442.3443.9219.778.093.431.33
DET5-40.56220.7938.8717.776.992.831.23
BUF5-40.47410.8753.8522.357.692.730.88
DAL5-40.5535.1922.039.563.721.480.64
TEN6-40.44011.6656.9120.046.362.090.62
ATL5-40.5403.8320.839.093.401.320.55
GB5-40.4945.0216.936.342.080.710.27
OAK4-50.4645.2016.756.552.170.750.24
HOU3-60.4910.809.613.681.350.510.17
LAC3-60.4952.468.703.571.290.480.17
NYJ4-60.4540.064.991.790.570.200.06
WAS4-50.4530.065.321.710.510.160.05
CIN3-60.4190.053.020.960.280.090.02
DEN3-60.3610.943.991.140.280.070.02
MIA4-50.3250.685.801.490.320.070.02
TB3-60.4250.040.590.170.050.010.00
IND3-70.3180.020.710.160.040.010.00
ARI4-50.3610.100.420.110.020.010.00
CHI3-60.3980.090.200.060.010.000.00
SF1-90.333------
NYG1-80.3330.000.000.000.000.00-
CLE0-90.318-0.000.000.000.00-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia

2017-11-14

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 10, Final

Jacksonville over Philadelphia

Well, I wasn't expecting that to happen. Philadelphia now just barely edges out LA for the NFC. Both teams lost a little ground due to the NFC's Carolina winning over the AFC's Miami on Monday night, strengthening the NFC pool. I suspect that there are more situations where Carolina plays LA than where they play Philadelphia, affecting LA's chances more.

I also ran fewer simulations than usual today due to time constraints, so it's also possible the teams are even closer and more simulations would have pushed LA higher. But for now, this is what we've got to work with.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
JAC6-30.68379.1898.6284.0452.5232.2417.17
LAR7-20.70177.0993.2974.1643.3124.7314.75
PHI8-10.66694.7598.4587.3847.8824.8113.85
NO7-20.67374.7593.2171.1538.4820.4011.55
NE7-20.60588.7897.6880.7842.5220.969.40
PIT7-20.59494.3198.0577.3539.2118.868.24
KC6-30.57991.4094.6666.4631.4414.716.22
MIN7-20.60873.9586.8159.1826.7111.965.94
SEA6-30.59822.8156.1529.5012.905.742.79
CAR7-30.57621.3966.3933.5813.845.802.69
TEN6-30.48420.1572.7432.9212.224.621.54
BAL4-50.5445.5142.3719.838.463.671.42
DET5-40.56220.7238.8417.777.002.831.27
BUF5-40.47410.5149.7321.427.752.830.92
DAL5-40.5535.1921.959.543.711.480.65
ATL5-40.5403.8320.809.093.411.320.57
GB5-40.4945.2517.636.612.180.750.29
OAK4-50.4645.2114.675.882.050.740.23
HOU3-60.4910.668.263.291.260.490.16
LAC3-60.4952.467.613.181.200.460.16
WAS4-50.4530.065.311.710.510.160.05
NYJ4-60.4540.063.991.480.500.180.05
CIN3-60.4190.192.860.950.300.090.03
DEN3-60.3610.943.320.970.250.070.02
MIA4-50.3250.644.911.310.300.070.01
TB3-60.4250.040.590.170.050.010.00
IND3-70.3190.010.550.130.030.010.00
ARI4-50.3610.100.390.100.020.010.00
CHI3-60.3980.090.200.060.010.000.00
CLE0-90.3180.000.000.000.000.000.00
SF1-90.333------
NYG1-80.3330.000.000.000.000.00-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville

2017-11-13

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 10, Sunday

Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville

With no game for Philadelphia this week, LA caught them in the NFC projection, so here we are, back to the same matchup projected as Week 1. It seems odd that Jacksonville's odds are so high when they are 6-3, but in the AFC there just aren't many strong teams, even the two that are 7-2. Also, I should point out that while Jacksonville has the highest chance of winning the Superbowl, which is how this table is sorted, they are weaker than LA, so that's why the projection has the Rams winning. Jacksonville joined Philadelphia up over 98% likely to make the playoffs, but neither has quite crossed 99% yet.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
JAC6-30.68379.1698.5784.2352.7232.3717.23
LAR7-20.70077.0993.8375.0043.9525.1414.99
PHI8-10.66694.7598.6287.6048.3325.0613.99
NO7-20.67381.7594.3973.5639.9721.2212.01
NE7-20.60587.9597.1780.1042.1520.799.32
PIT7-20.59494.3098.0177.6339.4518.978.29
KC6-30.57991.1494.3766.2831.3814.696.21
MIN7-20.60874.6188.3261.5327.8512.486.20
SEA6-30.59822.8157.9630.6013.385.962.90
TEN6-30.48420.1771.8932.7912.184.611.54
BAL4-50.5445.5142.0319.748.423.661.42
DET5-40.56219.9841.0518.947.463.021.36
CAR6-30.52313.3250.8322.107.962.931.21
BUF5-40.47410.3047.0120.347.362.690.87
DAL5-40.5535.1923.5510.243.981.590.70
ATL5-40.5404.8823.9510.523.951.530.66
GB5-40.4945.3420.237.612.510.860.33
OAK4-50.4645.3814.715.942.070.740.24
HOU3-60.4910.668.003.201.220.470.16
LAC3-60.4952.557.353.091.160.450.15
WAS4-50.4530.065.841.890.560.170.06
NYJ4-60.4540.074.051.510.510.180.06
MIA4-40.3581.6710.423.190.820.220.05
CIN3-60.4190.192.740.920.280.090.03
DEN3-60.3610.933.170.940.240.070.02
TB3-60.4250.060.750.220.060.020.01
ARI4-50.3620.100.450.120.030.010.00
IND3-70.3190.010.530.130.030.010.00
CHI3-60.3980.080.230.070.020.000.00
CLE0-90.3190.000.000.000.000.000.00
SF1-90.333------
NYG1-80.3330.000.000.000.00--

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville

2017-11-12

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 11

Georgia lost big to Auburn, and fell down to #3. Alabama and Wisconsin each take a step forward to #1 and #2, respectively. Rounding out the top 4, Notre Dame was replaced by Miami, the team that beat them, rising up from #8. I'd assume the late loss will drop Georgia significantly further in the real rankings.

Missouri won again. This week the Tennessee coach was fired right after their win, as opposed to last week's win right after the Florida coach was fired. I've got them at #68. They've got 2 road games left, but the two opponents are a combined 1-11 against the SEC. Hooray for bowl inflation.

UTEP lost again and remained just behind Georgia Southern at #129 and #130. A little higher up, former #130 UMass is going on a tear, having now won 3 games to reach #114. This week was a late season FCS opponent, but it's still a win.

1Alabama10-0
2Wisconsin10-0
3Georgia9-1
4Miami9-0
5Clemson9-1
6USC9-2
7UCF9-0
8Oklahoma9-1
9Washington State9-2
10Notre Dame8-2
11Penn State8-2
12Ohio State8-2
13Auburn8-2
14Boise State8-2
15Washington8-2
16TCU8-2
17Memphis8-1
18Oklahoma State8-2
19San Diego State8-2
20Michigan8-2
21Toledo8-2
22Michigan State7-3
23NC State7-3
24South Florida8-1
25Mississippi State7-3
26Stanford7-3
27Troy8-2
28South Carolina7-3
29LSU7-3
30Virginia Tech7-3
31Florida Atlantic7-3
32Army8-2
33Ohio8-2
34Northwestern7-3
35Arizona7-3
36Iowa6-4
37Kentucky7-3
38West Virginia7-3
39North Texas7-3
40Northern Illinois7-3
41Iowa State6-4
42Marshall7-3
43Wyoming7-3
44Texas A&M6-4
45Navy6-3
46Fresno State7-3
47Wake Forest6-4
48Houston6-3
49SMU6-4
50Louisville6-4
51Florida Intl6-3
52Boston College5-5
53UAB7-3
54Oregon5-5
55Georgia Tech5-4
56Virginia6-4
57Arizona State5-5
58UCLA5-5
59Central Michigan6-4
60Western Michigan6-4
61California5-5
62Southern Mississippi6-4
63Georgia State6-3
64Ole Miss5-5
65Colorado State6-5
66Texas Tech5-5
67Utah5-5
68Missouri5-5
69Texas5-5
70Temple5-5
71Colorado5-6
72Kansas State5-5
73Akron5-5
74Appalachian State6-4
75Minnesota5-5
76Utah State5-5
77Syracuse4-6
78Maryland4-6
79Middle Tennessee5-5
80Tulane4-6
81UT San Antonio5-4
82Indiana4-6
83Arkansas State5-3
84Arkansas4-6
85Purdue4-6
86Vanderbilt4-6
87Nebraska4-6
88Tennessee4-6
89Duke4-6
90Florida State3-6
91Pittsburgh4-6
92Rutgers4-6
93Louisiana Tech4-6
94Miami (OH)4-6
95Western Kentucky5-5
96Florida3-6
97Air Force4-6
98Buffalo4-6
99UNLV4-6
100Old Dominion4-6
101South Alabama4-6
102Cincinnati3-7
103Louisiana Monroe4-5
104Louisiana4-5
105New Mexico State4-5
106Connecticut3-7
107Eastern Michigan3-7
108Idaho3-6
109New Mexico3-7
110Hawai'i3-7
111BYU3-8
112East Carolina2-8
113North Carolina2-8
114UMass3-7
115Kent State2-8
116Tulsa2-8
117Bowling Green2-8
118Nevada2-8
119Illinois2-8
120Ball State2-8
121Oregon State1-9
122Texas State2-8
123Baylor1-9
124Charlotte1-9
125Kansas1-9
126Rice1-9
127Coastal Carolina1-9
128San Jose State1-10
129Georgia Southern0-9
130UTEP0-10

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia
Week 4 Georgia
Week 5 Georgia
Week 6 Georgia
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Georgia
Week 10 Georgia

2017-11-10

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 10, Thursday

Philadelphia over Jacksonville

I showed Seattle as a 70% favorite in the Thursday night game, and they won, but by less than a touchdown. I'm not sure if that's a good projection or not, but I do know I scored more points than FiveThirtyEight in their NFL preditions game, where they only favored Seattle by 56%. In other NFC West news, I've given up trying to run enough simulations get San Francisco to make the playoffs even once. It's not going to happen, although it's still not yet impossible.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI8-10.66688.8998.4488.9451.5528.7316.47
JAC5-30.67177.6194.2378.8848.9630.0316.42
LAR6-20.66466.5688.1367.3638.0320.8211.89
PIT6-20.58691.5795.6375.6338.8119.018.67
NO6-20.62072.0887.5262.8231.4915.468.12
KC6-30.57988.0592.1866.6332.8815.947.17
MIN6-20.59975.6584.6259.3728.1113.066.57
NE6-20.56365.4689.7765.4531.4714.566.31
SEA6-30.59833.2762.3336.2416.987.994.02
BUF5-30.55631.9571.6843.1820.109.223.94
DAL5-30.58510.9048.9126.3211.755.392.63
CAR6-30.52323.6754.1626.5610.264.021.72
BAL4-50.5437.4835.2917.457.793.501.45
TEN5-30.47618.8750.6323.849.153.541.25
DET4-40.53718.6732.2815.055.982.441.08
HOU3-50.5353.4714.466.863.041.360.55
ATL4-40.4964.1613.555.892.100.780.31
LAC3-50.5023.8410.174.581.880.770.29
GB4-40.4804.8314.165.621.920.680.26
OAK4-50.4645.5112.825.371.980.740.25
WAS4-40.4660.2013.254.981.620.560.21
NYJ4-50.4670.589.904.021.480.560.19
CIN3-50.4270.946.672.410.800.270.08
DEN3-50.4032.617.862.810.880.280.08
MIA4-40.3582.028.062.700.740.210.05
CHI3-50.4140.861.610.530.150.040.01
TB2-60.4190.090.480.150.040.010.00
ARI4-50.3620.180.570.160.040.010.00
IND3-60.3300.060.660.180.050.010.00
NYG1-70.3490.000.000.000.000.000.00
CLE0-80.3360.000.000.000.000.000.00
SF0-90.320------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville

2017-11-07

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 9, Final

Philadelphia over Jacksonville

As it turns out, quarterbacks are important. Detroit beat Green Bay handily on Monday, 30-17, but with Green Bay's last 7 points coming as time expired. Green Bay's playoff chances were cut to less than half of the 31% they had before yesterday's game, while Detroit nearly doubled from 17.7% to 33.4%. Also, San Francisco is still not mathematically eliminated, just still so unlikely that they don't show up even once in the playoffs in over a billion runs.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI8-10.66688.9098.6189.4252.1029.0716.68
JAC5-30.67177.8194.2778.9549.0030.0616.44
LAR6-20.66472.5389.1568.9139.0521.4112.22
PIT6-20.58691.5795.6475.6338.8119.018.69
NO6-20.62072.0688.0963.5031.9015.698.24
KC6-30.57988.0592.1966.6432.8915.947.17
MIN6-20.59975.6485.0560.1128.5313.286.68
NE6-20.56365.4789.7965.4731.4814.566.32
BUF5-30.55631.9471.7343.2020.109.223.94
SEA5-30.58526.5451.6328.7113.015.962.91
DAL5-30.58510.9050.9427.4512.245.642.75
CAR6-30.52323.6555.7127.4910.624.171.78
BAL4-50.5447.4835.3817.497.803.511.45
TEN5-30.47618.6950.3523.699.093.511.24
DET4-40.53818.6833.3815.686.242.551.12
HOU3-50.5353.4414.386.813.021.350.55
ATL4-40.4964.2014.406.282.230.830.33
LAC3-50.5023.8410.194.591.880.770.29
GB4-40.4804.8314.745.882.000.710.28
OAK4-50.4645.5012.855.381.980.740.25
WAS4-40.4660.1913.765.171.680.580.22
NYJ4-50.4670.589.924.031.490.560.19
CIN3-50.4270.946.692.420.800.270.08
DEN3-50.4032.607.882.810.880.280.08
MIA4-40.3582.018.082.700.740.210.05
CHI3-50.4140.851.690.560.160.050.02
ARI4-40.3760.942.330.700.180.050.01
TB2-60.4190.090.520.170.050.010.00
IND3-60.3300.060.660.180.050.010.00
NYG1-70.3490.000.000.000.000.000.00
CLE0-80.3360.000.000.000.000.000.00
SF0-90.320------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville

2017-11-06

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 9, Sunday

Philadelphia over Jacksonville

No one quite hit a 99% playoff probability yet, but Philadelphia's close at 98.65%. We have our first empty slots in the big matrix, first for Cleveland's chances of winning the Superbowl. Obviously, if they can make the playoffs, they can win the Superbowl, but it didn't happen in the 1.1 billion simulations I ran. Similarly, San Francisco is not actually eliminated from the playoffs, but didn't make it in any of my simulations. I tested this by running more simulations where they go 7-9, winning the rest of their games 1000-0, just to make sure they cover any possible tiebreakers. However, it also required allowing ties, which I don't usually do until I need to double-check any 0% or 100% values. Even in that case, they only get about a .0008% chance of winning the NFC West, so I'd say it's safe to spend your playoff ticket money if you're a San Francisco fan.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI8-10.66689.5798.6589.7652.4229.2816.80
JAC5-30.67178.2494.2078.4648.6829.8616.34
LAR6-20.66473.6889.4769.1539.2121.5112.27
PIT6-20.58691.6295.5875.6838.8219.058.70
NO6-20.62071.8887.6763.1531.7515.628.21
KC6-30.57988.6992.5366.7732.9515.997.20
MIN6-20.59976.7385.5860.2628.6113.346.71
NE6-20.56366.2390.3666.3831.9414.786.41
BUF5-30.55631.2172.1943.3220.189.273.97
SEA5-30.58525.4051.6028.6212.985.942.91
DAL5-30.58510.1950.6927.2612.165.612.74
CAR6-30.52323.9555.7627.5910.684.191.80
BAL4-50.5447.3533.5216.507.383.311.38
TEN5-30.47618.5351.9924.489.403.631.28
GB4-30.50613.0831.0413.945.131.940.80
HOU3-50.5353.1814.216.722.981.320.54
DET3-40.5139.3817.727.802.911.120.46
ATL4-40.4964.0713.425.852.070.770.31
LAC3-50.5023.6610.034.501.850.760.28
OAK4-50.4645.1712.405.171.900.700.24
WAS4-40.4660.2413.715.161.670.580.22
NYJ4-50.4670.6710.094.091.510.570.20
CIN3-50.4271.026.652.400.800.270.08
DEN3-50.4032.497.542.680.840.270.08
MIA4-40.3581.898.092.680.730.200.05
CHI3-50.4140.811.740.580.160.050.02
ARI4-40.3760.922.490.740.190.050.01
TB2-60.4190.090.450.150.040.010.00
IND3-60.3300.060.610.170.040.010.00
NYG1-70.3490.000.000.000.000.000.00
CLE0-80.3360.000.000.000.000.00-
SF0-90.320------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville

2017-11-05

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 10

The top 3 remained stable, but Penn State dropped from 4 all the way to #16 because of their loss to Michigan State. Notre Dame takes over the final playoff spot, but probably won't be able to hang on to it due to their lack of conference championship game. UCF, who lost a game due to a hurricane, is still undefeated, but only 8-0 compared to the top teams' 9-0.

Missouri won again with Florida flailing, and is up 10 spots to #82. It's not impossible that they could make one of the lowest-tier bowls now.

UTEP suffered a worse loss than Georgia Southern this week, and dropped to #130.

1Georgia9-0
2Alabama9-0
3Wisconsin9-0
4Notre Dame8-1
5UCF8-0
6Clemson8-1
7USC8-2
8Miami8-0
9Washington8-1
10Washington State8-2
11TCU8-1
12Memphis8-1
13Oklahoma8-1
14Toledo8-1
15San Diego State8-2
16Penn State7-2
17Michigan State7-2
18Ohio State7-2
19South Florida8-1
20Mississippi State7-2
21Auburn7-2
22Virginia Tech7-2
23Boise State7-2
24Michigan7-2
25Oklahoma State7-2
26Iowa6-3
27NC State6-3
28Troy7-2
29Iowa State6-3
30Arizona6-3
31South Carolina6-3
32Stanford6-3
33Northwestern6-3
34LSU6-3
35SMU6-3
36Army7-2
37Florida Atlantic6-3
38Houston6-3
39Ohio7-2
40Florida Intl6-2
41North Texas6-3
42Northern Illinois6-3
43Kentucky6-3
44West Virginia6-3
45Boston College5-4
46Arizona State5-4
47Wyoming6-3
48Virginia6-3
49Oregon5-5
50Texas A&M5-4
51Marshall6-3
52Fresno State6-3
53Wake Forest5-4
54Navy5-3
55California5-5
56Colorado State6-4
57Utah5-4
58Akron5-4
59UAB6-3
60Colorado5-5
61Louisville5-4
62Kansas State5-4
63Southern Mississippi5-4
64Western Michigan5-4
65Central Michigan5-4
66UCLA4-5
67Georgia Tech4-4
68Arkansas State5-2
69Syracuse4-5
70Utah State5-5
71Texas Tech4-5
72Georgia State5-3
73UT San Antonio5-3
74Maryland4-5
75Nebraska4-5
76Ole Miss4-5
77Texas4-5
78Pittsburgh4-5
79Arkansas4-5
80Vanderbilt4-5
81Purdue4-5
82Missouri4-5
83Duke4-5
84Temple4-5
85Tennessee4-5
86Appalachian State5-4
87Rutgers4-5
88Florida State3-5
89Western Kentucky5-4
90Minnesota4-5
91Louisiana Tech4-5
92Air Force4-5
93UNLV4-5
94Middle Tennessee4-5
95Florida3-5
96Tulane3-6
97Indiana3-6
98Cincinnati3-6
99Louisiana4-4
100Louisiana Monroe4-5
101New Mexico State4-5
102Eastern Michigan3-6
103Connecticut3-6
104Buffalo3-6
105Miami (OH)3-6
106New Mexico3-6
107South Alabama3-6
108Idaho3-6
109Hawai'i3-6
110East Carolina2-7
111Old Dominion3-6
112Bowling Green2-7
113Tulsa2-8
114Illinois2-7
115Kent State2-7
116BYU2-8
117Ball State2-7
118North Carolina1-8
119Oregon State1-8
120Nevada1-8
121UMass2-7
122Texas State2-7
123Baylor1-8
124Rice1-8
125Kansas1-8
126Charlotte1-8
127San Jose State1-9
128Coastal Carolina1-8
129Georgia Southern0-8
130UTEP0-9

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia
Week 4 Georgia
Week 5 Georgia
Week 6 Georgia
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Georgia