2017-05-22

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 22

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 3
NSH 3-2 ANA
OTT 2-3 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59283.952.8
NSH0.53473.228.8
ANA0.55426.811.8
OTT0.49516.16.6

I'm not sure how a team ever comes back from a 7-0 loss, but Ottawa will have to win their very next game (and the next one) to advance. Pittsburgh is now 84% likely to win that series, and over the 50% mark for winning the Cup.

2017-05-21

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 21

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 3
NSH 3-2 ANA
OTT 2-2 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59266.641.9
NSH0.53473.231.5
OTT0.49533.413.8
ANA0.55426.812.9

Nashville won to go up 3-2, and I'm too busy for even my minimal commentary today. Happy Sunday!

2017-05-20

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 20

Pittsburgh over Anaheim

Round 3
NSH 2-2 ANA
OTT 2-2 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59266.641.1
ANA0.55455.526.7
NSH0.53444.519.1
OTT0.49533.413.1

The projection changes again, as Pittsburgh tied the series against Ottawa. I only saw part of the game, but saw the highlights on the evening news, and at the end of the package the sportscaster said that Pittsburgh won it to go up 3-1. I did a double take, and immediately looked up the results online, thinking I had somehow messed up by listing Ottawa as up 2-1 after game 3. Of course, as it turns out he was just wrong. I think he was a little thrown off by the Cardinals updates that seemed to be getting added to his highlights package in real time since the game was rain delayed and still going on.

2017-05-19

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 19

Anaheim over Ottawa

Round 3
NSH 2-2 ANA
OTT 2-1 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
ANA0.55455.529.3
PIT0.59246.728.9
NSH0.53444.521.0
OTT0.49553.320.8

Nashville forced OT but Anaheim scored first to win it, and are back on top of the projection. Pittsburgh should take back over with a win tonight, or else fall behind 3-1 and have quite a deficit to dig themselves out of.

2017-05-18

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 18

Nashville over Ottawa

Round 3
NSH 2-1 ANA
OTT 2-1 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
NSH0.53465.931.0
PIT0.59246.729.3
OTT0.49553.321.6
ANA0.55434.118.1

Ottawa scored 4 goals in the first period, defeating Pittsburgh 5-1, and making their way into the position of Eastern Conference favorite for the first time during these playoffs. I can't tell you how many times during the past two months I've double checked that their strength number should indeed be below .500, but it's correct. They allowed 214 goals this year, while only scoring 212, putting them just a little under .500 when the formula is applied.

2017-05-17

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 17

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 3
NSH 2-1 ANA
OTT 1-1 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59265.941.3
NSH0.53465.928.4
ANA0.55434.116.5
OTT0.49534.113.8

Here's an interesting little quirk. To the third decimal place, Pittsburgh and Nashville are equally likely to win their series. This despite Pittsburgh being tied 1-1, while Nashville took a 2-1 lead. This, of course, is because Pittsburgh's strength far outstrips Ottawa, while Nashville is actually weaker than Anaheim.

2017-05-16

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 16

Pittsburgh over Anaheim

Round 3
NSH 1-1 ANA
OTT 1-1 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59265.940.8
ANA0.55451.825.0
NSH0.53448.220.8
OTT0.49534.113.4

Pittsburgh won game 2 and is back to a 66% chance of winning the series. Now both series are tied 1-1, with home ice advantage effectively swapped to the other team. 

2017-05-15

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 15

Pittsburgh over Anaheim

Round 3
NSH 1-1 ANA
OTT 1-0 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59253.633.2
ANA0.55451.826.6
NSH0.53448.222.0
OTT0.49546.418.3

Anaheim evened up the series, and the mostly likely projection is now Pittsburgh over Anaheim, but each series is just about as close to being a tossup as they can be.

2017-05-14

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 14

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 3
NSH 1-0 ANA
OTT 1-0 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59253.633.5
NSH0.53461.928.3
ANA0.55438.119.5
OTT0.49546.418.7

Ottawa has a 1-0 lead, but Pittsburgh is still slightly favored in that series due to their high strength, so today's projection doesn't change. Anaheim can re-take the Western conference lead by tying up their series today, or Nashville can take a commanding 2-0 lead.

2017-05-13

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 13

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 3
NSH 1-0 ANA
OTT 0-0 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59271.644.8
NSH0.53461.926.0
ANA0.55438.117.8
OTT0.49528.411.4

Nashville took a 1-0 lead and flipped the Western conference in their favor with a road victory. Pittsburgh remains favored to win, up to 45% with the ostensibly weaker Nashville now leading.

2017-05-11

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 11

Pittsburgh over Anaheim

Round 3
NSH 0-0 ANA
OTT 0-0 PIT

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-4 ANA
PIT 4-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59271.644.2
ANA0.55455.926.2
NSH0.53444.118.5
OTT0.49528.411.1

Pittsburgh finally finished off Washington, and Anaheim beat Edmonton, and the Conference Finals are set. Pittsburgh and Anaheim are favored in their respective series, setting up a 44% chance of the first back-to-back champion since 1998.

2017-05-10

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 10

Washington over Nashville

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-3 ANA
PIT 3-3 WSH
NYR 2-4 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67663.754.542.1
PIT0.59236.326.015.7
NSH0.534100.041.913.1
EDM0.57647.228.611.3
ANA0.55452.829.510.5
OTT0.495100.019.57.4

Ottawa has advanced, though they're only 19.5% likely to beat the winner of Washington and Pittsburgh. They'll play tonight, along with Edmonton and Anaheim, and the Conference finals will be set.

2017-05-09

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 9

Washington over Nashville

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-3 ANA
PIT 3-3 WSH
NYR 2-3 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67663.751.940.2
PIT0.59236.324.014.5
NSH0.534100.041.912.9
EDM0.57647.228.611.2
ANA0.55452.829.510.3
NYR0.57533.311.06.0
OTT0.49566.713.04.9

The only game yesterday was Washington evening up their series with Pittsburgh and forcing a game 7. They're now back on top of the East, with over a 50% chance of beating both Pittsburgh and their next opponent.


2017-05-08

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 8

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 2
NSH 4-2 STL
EDM 3-3 ANA
PIT 3-2 WSH
NYR 2-3 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
PIT0.59265.643.426.2
WSH0.67634.428.121.7
NSH0.534100.041.914.7
EDM0.57647.228.612.7
ANA0.55452.829.511.8
NYR0.57533.312.87.0
OTT0.49566.715.75.9

St. Louis is out, and Edmonton and Anaheim will have to play game 7 after another 2 day break. Nashville is now the favorite in the West, mostly by virtue of being the only team into the third round so far. Both Edmonton and Anaheim would be favored over Nashville.


2017-05-07

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 7

Pittsburgh over Anaheim

Round 2
NSH 3-2 STL
EDM 2-3 ANA
PIT 3-2 WSH
NYR 2-3 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
PIT0.59265.643.426.4
WSH0.67634.428.121.8
ANA0.55473.040.716.2
NSH0.53474.932.111.3
EDM0.57627.016.37.2
NYR0.57533.312.87.1
OTT0.49566.715.76.0
STL0.53725.110.94.0

Ottawa took a 3-2 lead over New York, and Washington stayed alive against Pittsburgh, so both series will have at least one more game. Today either Western Conference series could end, or be extended to game 7.

2017-05-06

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 6

Pittsburgh over Anaheim

Round 2
NSH 3-2 STL
EDM 2-3 ANA
PIT 3-1 WSH
NYR 2-2 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
PIT0.59278.048.429.4
ANA0.55473.040.716.8
NYR0.57559.424.113.4
WSH0.67622.017.213.4
NSH0.53474.932.111.6
EDM0.57627.016.37.5
STL0.53725.110.94.0
OTT0.49540.610.33.9

Anaheim took a lead in their series after being down 2-0, and Nashville failed to eliminate St. Louis, so Anaheim is now the favorite in the West. St. Louis looked dominant in at least the 3rd period, which is all I got to watch, so hopefully they can carry that forward to Sunday. Tonight, Pittsburgh will try to eliminate Washington, and New York and Ottawa will untie their 2-2 series.

2017-05-05

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 5

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 2
NSH 3-1 STL
EDM 2-2 ANA
PIT 3-1 WSH
NYR 2-2 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
PIT0.59278.048.429.1
EDM0.57650.830.714.0
WSH0.67622.017.213.3
NYR0.57559.424.113.2
NSH0.53486.136.013.0
ANA0.55449.227.511.3
OTT0.49540.610.33.8
STL0.53713.95.92.2

New York evened their series with Ottawa at 2-2. After a bunch of extra days off scattered in, we're back to both Western conference series playing on the same day, so today the Blues will try to survive to play game 6, while Edmonton will be playing to overtake the Western Conference lead, at least by my numbers.

2017-05-04

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 4

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Round 2
NSH 3-1 STL
EDM 2-2 ANA
PIT 3-1 WSH
NYR 1-2 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
PIT0.59278.050.330.3
EDM0.57650.830.714.2
WSH0.67622.017.613.6
NSH0.53486.136.013.2
ANA0.55449.227.511.5
NYR0.57543.917.89.7
OTT0.49556.114.25.3
STL0.53713.95.92.2

Pittsburgh took over the East with a win over Washington, and Edmonton ceded the West to Nashville by losing to Anaheim, so both teams in my projection changed. St. Louis gets another unnecessary 2 day break, so tonight only New York and Ottawa will play, bringing all series to 4 games completed.

2017-05-03

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 3

Washington over Edmonton

Round 2
NSH 3-1 STL
EDM 2-1 ANA
PIT 2-1 WSH
NYR 1-2 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67645.536.528.0
PIT0.59254.535.120.9
EDM0.57672.143.618.4
NSH0.53486.135.111.7
NYR0.57543.916.08.6
ANA0.55427.915.65.9
OTT0.49556.112.44.5
STL0.53713.95.72.0

Washington and Edmonton were both idle and remained at the top of their respective conferences. St. Louis is now down 3-1 and only 2% likely to win the cup, while New York won to pull themselves back into their series with Ottawa.

2017-05-02

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 2

Washington over Edmonton

Round 2
NSH 2-1 STL
EDM 2-1 ANA
PIT 2-1 WSH
NYR 0-2 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67645.537.228.5
PIT0.59254.536.221.5
EDM0.57672.143.518.4
NSH0.53468.427.99.3
NYR0.57531.711.56.2
ANA0.55427.915.55.9
OTT0.49568.315.15.5
STL0.53731.613.14.5

Washington avoided falling behind 3-0, and is now interestingly the Eastern Conference favorite again, while only being 45% likely to win their current series. That seems to be because they'd be massively favored over Ottawa, who is currently up 2-0 against New York. That series will continue tonight, along with St. Louis vs Nashville.

2017-05-01

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, May 1

Pittsburgh over Edmonton

Round 2
NSH 2-1 STL
EDM 2-1 ANA
PIT 2-0 WSH
NYR 0-2 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
PIT0.59269.946.527.7
EDM0.57672.143.519.6
WSH0.67630.124.618.8
NSH0.53468.427.910.0
NYR0.57531.712.46.7
ANA0.55427.915.56.3
OTT0.49568.316.56.0
STL0.53731.613.14.8

I think I jinxed the Blues yesterday, and they not only lost, but are now the least likely remaining team to win the cup. Anaheim won their game to avoid going down 3-0, but Edmonton is still the Western Conference favorite. Tonight, instead of two games, we only have one, I guess so everyone can write their columns about Washington choking if they fall behind 0-3. To me it's no failure to lose to the defending champs, but that doesn't seem to be a popular opinion.

2017-04-30

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 30

Pittsburgh over Edmonton

Round 2
NSH 1-1 STL
EDM 2-0 ANA
PIT 2-0 WSH
NYR 0-2 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
PIT0.59269.946.527.5
EDM0.57685.151.323.1
WSH0.67630.124.618.8
NSH0.53451.320.67.4
STL0.53748.719.97.3
NYR0.57531.712.46.6
OTT0.49568.316.55.9
ANA0.55414.98.33.4

A team can only fall so far behind and still be the favorite, and Washington finally breached that point, down 2-0 to Pittsburgh. They're still the second favorite in the East, and third overall. Ottawa's trying to climb up the charts, also up 2-0, but despite being 68% favorites to beat New York, they're still behind them in overall chances.

Today the West plays, and hopefully the Blues can work their pack to the top half of the chart.

2017-04-29

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 29

Washington over Edmonton

Round 2
NSH 1-1 STL
EDM 2-0 ANA
PIT 1-0 WSH
NYR 0-1 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67652.141.431.6
EDM0.57685.151.321.0
PIT0.59247.930.418.0
NYR0.57550.117.69.4
NSH0.53451.320.66.6
STL0.53748.719.96.5
OTT0.49549.910.63.8
ANA0.55414.98.33.0

St. Louis evened their series with Nashville, and Edmonton took a 2-0 lead over Anaheim. Despite that, Edmonton is still behind Washington, a team down 1-0, in overall cup chances. That's how off the charts Washington is this year. I was looking forward to 4 games today, the way baseball does it, but I forgot the NHL playoffs take a day off or more after each game. So, we'll get the two Eastern conference games tonight

2017-04-28

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 28

Washington over Edmonton

Round 2
NSH 1-0 STL
EDM 1-0 ANA
PIT 1-0 WSH
NYR 0-1 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67652.141.431.8
PIT0.59247.930.418.1
EDM0.57669.742.117.2
NYR0.57550.117.69.5
NSH0.53465.126.68.5
ANA0.55430.316.96.2
STL0.53734.914.54.8
OTT0.49549.910.63.9

Even though Washington lost last night, they're still favored in their series against Pittsburgh, and favored to win the cup. In the other series, Ottawa is just under 50% likely to win, even with their 1-0 lead against New York. Tonight, the Western conference resumes its semifinals.

2017-04-27

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 27

Washington over Edmonton

Round 2
NSH 1-0 STL
EDM 1-0 ANA
PIT 0-0 WSH
NYR 0-0 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67670.354.641.9
EDM0.57669.742.115.9
NYR0.57565.520.911.3
PIT0.59229.718.110.8
NSH0.53465.126.67.8
ANA0.55430.316.95.7
STL0.53734.914.54.3
OTT0.49534.56.42.3

The second round has kicked off, and both road teams won game 1 in the West, and both Nashville and Edmonton are over 65% likely to win. Tonight the Eastern Conference semifinals start.

2017-04-24

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 24

Washington over Edmonton

Round 2
NSH 0-0 STL
EDM 0-0 ANA
PIT 0-0 WSH
NYR 0-0 OTT

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-4 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-4 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67670.354.642.1
EDM0.57653.232.012.1
NYR0.57565.520.911.4
PIT0.59229.718.110.9
ANA0.55446.826.08.8
STL0.53752.222.16.6
NSH0.53447.819.95.8
OTT0.49534.56.42.4

The US and Canadian capital cities both finished off their series, and we've got round 2 all lined up. No series in round 1 went to 7 games, but thanks to staggering the games, there will only be 2 off days before games resume Wednesday

2017-04-23

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 23

Washington over Edmonton

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 4-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-4 EDM
TOR 2-3 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 4-2 MON
BOS 2-3 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 2Round 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67688.562.247.937.0
EDM0.576100.053.232.012.7
PIT0.592100.034.020.412.3
NYR0.575100.062.121.111.5
ANA0.554100.046.826.09.2
STL0.537100.052.222.17.0
NSH0.534100.047.819.96.1
BOS0.54930.413.94.12.0
OTT0.49569.624.04.91.8
TOR0.51811.53.71.50.6

Three games finished three series on Saturday, as St. Louis, New York, and Edmonton all advanced. Edmonton is also the new Western Conference favorite. The last two series could end today, or we could have one or two game 7s, which I assume would be on Tuesday after a day off Monday.

2017-04-22

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 22

Washington over Anaheim

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 3-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-3 EDM
TOR 2-3 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 3-2 MON
BOS 2-3 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 2Round 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67688.562.248.236.7
PIT0.592100.034.020.612.1
EDM0.57678.041.523.79.3
ANA0.554100.048.225.28.9
NYR0.57576.747.616.28.6
NSH0.534100.044.018.65.7
STL0.53778.641.117.85.6
MIN0.62121.415.09.64.7
MON0.56123.314.54.52.3
BOS0.54930.413.94.11.9
OTT0.49569.624.04.91.8
SJS0.54722.010.35.11.7
TOR0.51811.53.71.60.6

Washington's back to nearly 50% likely to win the East, even though closing out this series will leave them one of 4 teams remaining. And Boston won to avoid elimination against Ottawa.

Today, St. Louis will try to finish off their series with Minnesota, and New York and Edmonton will need to win to avoid going to game 7.

2017-04-21

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 21

Washington over Anaheim

Round 1
NSH 4-0 CHI
STL 3-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-3 EDM
TOR 2-2 WSH
CBJ 1-4 PIT
NYR 3-2 MON
BOS 1-3 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 2Round 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67675.152.841.031.2
PIT0.592100.039.123.814.0
EDM0.57678.041.523.79.8
NYR0.57576.748.917.99.6
ANA0.554100.048.225.29.4
NSH0.534100.044.018.66.0
STL0.53778.641.117.85.9
MIN0.62121.415.09.64.9
MON0.56123.314.95.02.6
OTT0.49584.729.26.62.4
SJS0.54722.010.35.11.8
TOR0.51824.98.13.41.4
BOS0.54915.37.02.21.0

Two more teams advanced last night, knocking Chicago and Columbus out of the playoffs. Tonight Ottawa could eliminate Boston, and Toronto and Washington will resume their tied series.

I noticed St. Louis's cup chances went down slightly, from 6% to 5.9%, and that seemed weird to me, because the weaker-on-paper Nashville eliminated Chicago. Taking a closer look, their chances of beating Nashville went up, from 40.4% to 41%, but their chances of making the finals dropped slightly, because Edmonton again took the lead in their series. So while the Central division playoff bracket got a little weaker, the Pacific got stronger, more than enough to make up for it.

2017-04-20

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 20

Washington over Anaheim

Round 1
NSH 3-0 CHI
STL 3-1 MIN
CGY 0-4 ANA
SJS 2-2 EDM
TOR 2-2 WSH
CBJ 1-3 PIT
NYR 2-2 MON
BOS 1-3 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 2Round 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67675.152.240.831.1
PIT0.59286.733.920.812.3
ANA0.554100.049.525.79.6
EDM0.57656.830.217.17.0
NYR0.57549.731.711.56.2
STL0.53778.640.417.96.0
NSH0.53492.140.517.45.6
MON0.56150.332.110.85.5
MIN0.62121.414.89.64.9
SJS0.54743.220.310.03.5
CBJ0.62013.35.94.02.6
OTT0.49584.729.26.52.3
TOR0.51824.98.03.41.4
BOS0.54915.37.02.21.0
CHI0.5687.94.32.30.9

Calgary is the first team out, and Anaheim is the first to advance, in a 4-0 sweep. The Blues couldn't finish theirs last night, so they'll play again after another 2 day break. In the East, Washington tied their series, and the frantic hockey pundits can breathe for a few more days.

2017-04-19

2017 Stanley Cup Projection, April 19

Washington over Anaheim

Round 1
NSH 3-0 CHI
STL 3-0 MIN
CGY 0-3 ANA
SJS 2-2 EDM
TOR 2-1 WSH
CBJ 1-3 PIT
NYR 2-2 MON
BOS 1-2 OTT

TeamStrengthRound 2Round 3FinalsCup
WSH0.67657.840.231.224.0
PIT0.59286.739.524.014.4
ANA0.55495.747.425.310.0
EDM0.57656.830.517.77.7
STL0.53788.545.520.37.2
NYR0.57549.730.312.06.5
NSH0.53492.142.118.26.3
MON0.56150.330.711.25.9
SJS0.54743.220.510.33.9
BOS0.54939.518.16.23.0
CBJ0.62013.36.84.53.0
MIN0.62111.57.95.22.7
TOR0.51842.213.55.62.3
OTT0.49560.520.95.21.9
CHI0.5687.94.42.41.0
CGY0.5114.31.60.70.2

Columbus avoided elimination, and New York and San Jose both evened their series at 2-2. For some reason the Blues got a second consecutive day off, and not even during a travel period, so they'll try to finish off their sweep tonight, as will Anaheim. St. Louis would get a whole lot of rest before the second round, but Nashville could finish off Chicago tomorrow and have only one less day off before meeting up with St. Louis.