2014-10-29

2014 World Series Projection, October 29

San Francisco over Kansas City

World Series
SF 3-3 KC

League Championship Series
KC 4-0 BAL
SF 4-1 STL

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 3-1 LAD
SF 3-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

TeamStrengthWin
SF0.536351.71
KC0.519348.29

Tonight's game will decide the World Series winner.

San Francisco has a projected winning percentage of 51.71%, as they've had in each game. That doesn't take into account that day's starting pitcher, nor the location, so the margin of error on an individual game - especially with the favorite on the road - quite high, making this a statistical tie, I would venture.

I'll be rooting for Kansas City, but I'm hoping for something a little more dramatic than a 10-0 blowout. There are dangerous hitters on both teams, so no game is over until it's over, but anything more than a few runs deficit just makes the game feel over. I am looking forward to the all-hands-on-deck bullpen policy that usually comes in these games, since the manager doesn't need to worry about saving anyone for tomorrow; everyone's got plenty of rest after today. There's just something interesting about the oddity and rarity of a game where 23 or 24 of the 25-man roster makes it into the game.

2014-10-28

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 8, Final

Denver over Detroit

Could the Lions make the Superbowl? After seeing some of their past futility, I didn't think it would happen in my lifetime. But, I suppose I would have said the same thing about the Rams in the last years in LA and first years in St. Louis. Right now Detroit has taken over the NFC lead. Dallas's loss dropped them signifcantly because they were heavily favored to win last night's game. They're back to just a half game ahead of Philadelphia for the NFC East, making their lead a bit more tenuous than it was before yesterday. Detroit is up by a full game on Green Bay, and has a larger strength difference with them than Dallas does with Philadelphia.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL5-30.66053.93770.29851.87030.13417.36410.436
SD5-30.61212.21650.18630.68515.9178.2744.548
DEN6-10.61173.46191.01277.94741.10021.31311.706
IND5-30.60381.84184.63956.77629.04914.6887.942
KC4-30.59814.32249.36830.33015.2277.6454.091
DET6-20.59070.04888.35472.16039.31321.06510.328
DAL6-20.58851.59682.04962.67833.72217.9578.757
NE6-20.58764.08974.59652.91026.12612.7036.664
PHI5-20.58245.55171.48851.39027.09514.2736.883
GB5-30.55624.52352.49932.97116.2238.0553.666
ARI6-10.55369.08387.81470.69435.52217.3127.842
BUF5-30.54930.81744.00825.35211.4155.0982.475
SEA4-30.54416.24742.04325.58112.2855.9002.621
HOU4-40.54017.93528.60215.2156.7742.9961.430
SF4-30.52414.39842.20724.97211.4485.2482.225
CLE4-30.52310.69822.89012.5095.3432.2601.040
NO3-40.51955.97056.61727.25412.2135.5162.312
PIT5-30.51718.53240.15423.0069.6614.0171.823
MIA3-40.4945.0818.7144.1421.6580.6590.285
CIN4-2-10.49416.83335.21119.1637.5712.9751.283
CHI4-40.4704.83215.6687.9503.2361.3330.497
NYG3-40.4702.0989.2994.3911.7700.7270.271
ATL2-60.44811.03611.1694.4291.6780.6440.226
WAS3-50.4420.7553.1821.3500.5090.1970.068
MIN3-50.4200.5983.4781.4170.5030.1830.060
CAR3-4-10.42031.93332.30912.1654.3031.5360.502
STL2-50.3740.2720.7410.2600.0800.0260.007
TEN2-60.3680.1990.2750.0830.0240.0070.002
TB1-60.3571.0621.0810.3350.0990.0300.008
OAK0-70.3520.0010.0010.0000.0000.0000.000
NYJ1-70.3500.0130.0190.0050.0010.0000.000
JAC1-70.3180.0250.0260.0070.0020.0000.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]

2014-10-27

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 8, Sunday

Denver over Dallas

Baltimore remains the strongest team in the league despite their narrow loss to Cincinnati, but that division loss hurts badly in the standings. They dropped from 79% to 54% likely to win the AFC North, and from an 89% chance of making the playoffs to just 70%. Thus, Denver has taken over as the most likely AFC representative in the Superbowl.

Dallas plays Monday night, but a Philadelphia loss has already boosted them even higher in the NFC, although Detroit made their own push with a win in London over Atlanta.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL5-30.66053.94270.29451.85430.12717.36310.409
SD5-30.61212.21450.21230.69715.9238.2774.539
DEN6-10.61173.46491.01277.95041.10421.31511.684
IND5-30.60381.87384.66856.81229.06214.7007.927
KC4-30.59814.32249.38730.33515.2327.6474.085
DET6-20.59070.05387.85370.38738.24320.3889.993
DAL6-10.58963.55589.93273.48139.80821.23810.392
NE6-20.58764.09374.60852.92326.12312.7046.650
PHI5-20.58334.88369.97648.78625.48713.3756.450
GB5-30.55624.52051.62931.72815.5757.6973.502
ARI6-10.55369.03287.46869.22734.58716.8037.609
BUF5-30.54930.81444.00025.34411.4185.0982.467
SEA4-30.54416.23941.38124.86811.8655.6872.526
HOU4-40.54017.90228.52315.1676.7502.9841.420
SF4-30.52414.45741.49124.15611.0145.0352.132
CLE4-30.52310.68722.88412.5045.3402.2581.036
NO3-40.51955.97756.60926.91712.0185.4172.269
PIT5-30.51718.53740.16023.0139.6604.0111.814
MIA3-40.4945.0808.7204.1461.6590.6590.285
CIN4-2-10.49416.83435.20919.1607.5742.9761.280
CHI4-40.4704.82815.1967.5963.0771.2620.471
NYG3-40.4701.3068.5993.9851.5930.6530.242
ATL2-60.44811.03611.1644.3891.6550.6360.224
WAS2-50.4380.2561.2970.5400.2010.0770.026
MIN3-50.4200.5983.3151.3340.4700.1700.056
CAR3-4-10.42031.92332.29012.0234.2341.5080.493
STL2-50.3740.2730.7210.2510.0770.0240.007
TEN2-60.3680.1990.2750.0840.0230.0070.002
TB1-60.3571.0641.0810.3320.0980.0290.008
OAK0-70.3520.0010.0010.0000.0000.0000.000
NYJ1-70.3500.0130.0200.0050.0010.0000.000
JAC1-70.3180.0260.0270.0070.0020.0000.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]

2014 World Series Projection, October 27

San Francisco over Kansas City

World Series
SF 3-2 KC

League Championship Series
KC 4-0 BAL
SF 4-1 STL

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 3-1 LAD
SF 3-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

TeamStrengthWin
SF0.536376.68
KC0.519323.32

San Francisco has a 76.68% chance of winning game 6, or losing game 6 and winning game 7. I don't think I'm quite ready for baseball to be over for the year, but it will be in either 2 or 3 more days.

2014-10-26

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 9

We have our first repeat #1, with Mississippi taking back the top spot they lost in their bye week, due in part to Week 8 #1 Florida State's bye week. Ole Miss maintained the #2 spot, by losing to a very strong team, the now-#6 LSU Tigers.

Conference Play is not going to be kind to Marshall. They went from #4 to #8 this week despite a win, because their opponent was now-#100 Florida Atlantic. Their 4 remaining opponents are ranked #80-#97, and the current likely conference championship opponent is ranked #49. Those games aren't going to get them a lot of credibility, but it'd be an interesting decision the committee would have to make to start the College Football Playoff Era.

Missouri's win over Vanderbilt only bumped them up one spot to #19. It's going to take some wins and some help for me to consider them a playoff contender.

At the bottom, SMU lost again and maintains a hold on #127.

1Mississippi State7-0
2Ole Miss7-1
3Florida State7-0
4Alabama7-1
5Oregon7-1
6LSU7-2
7Nebraska7-1
8Marshall8-0
9Michigan State7-1
10Auburn6-1
11Clemson6-2
12Colorado State7-1
13Notre Dame6-1
14Georgia Tech6-2
15Kansas State6-1
16TCU6-1
17West Virginia6-2
18UCLA6-2
19Missouri6-2
20Utah6-1
21Boise State6-2
22Georgia6-1
23Ohio State6-1
24Arizona6-1
25Arizona State6-1
26Minnesota6-2
27Louisville6-2
28Baylor6-1
29Duke6-1
30East Carolina6-1
31Miami (FL)5-3
32Maryland5-3
33Oklahoma5-2
34USC5-3
35Wisconsin5-2
36Texas A&M5-3
37Northern Illinois6-2
38UCF5-2
39Washington5-3
40Oklahoma State5-3
41Kentucky5-3
42Iowa5-2
43Boston College5-3
44Georgia Southern6-2
45Stanford5-3
46Toledo5-3
47Utah State5-3
48Nevada5-3
49Louisiana Tech5-3
50Virginia Tech4-4
51North Carolina4-4
52Middle Tennessee5-3
53Rutgers5-3
54Western Michigan5-3
55Air Force5-2
56Central Michigan5-4
57North Carolina State4-4
58South Carolina4-4
59Illinois4-4
60Bowling Green5-3
61Virginia4-4
62Louisiana-Lafayette4-3
63Arkansas4-4
64Pittsburgh4-4
65South Alabama5-2
66California4-4
67Arkansas State4-3
68Penn State4-3
69BYU4-4
70Memphis4-3
71Oregon State4-3
72Houston4-3
73Cincinnati4-3
74Syracuse3-5
75Florida3-3
76Purdue3-5
77Tennessee3-5
78Navy4-4
79UTEP4-3
80Rice4-3
81San Diego State4-3
82Northwestern3-4
83Indiana3-4
84Ohio4-5
85UAB4-4
86Texas Tech3-5
87Texas State4-3
88Temple4-3
89Akron4-4
90Michigan3-5
91Wyoming3-5
92Southern Miss3-5
93San Jose State3-4
94Texas3-5
95Florida International3-5
96Ball State3-5
97Western Kentucky3-4
98Fresno State3-5
99South Florida3-5
100Florida Atlantic3-5
101Iowa State2-5
102Louisiana-Monroe3-4
103Washington State2-6
104Buffalo3-5
105Kansas2-5
106Vanderbilt2-6
107Tulane2-5
108Colorado2-6
109Wake Forest2-6
110UNLV2-6
111UTSA2-6
112Hawaii2-6
113New Mexico2-5
114Appalachian State2-5
115Eastern Michigan2-6
116Army2-5
117Miami (OH)2-7
118New Mexico State2-6
119North Texas2-6
120Connecticut1-6
121Tulsa1-6
122Massachusetts2-7
123Georgia State1-7
124Idaho1-6
125Troy1-7
126Kent State1-7
127SMU0-7


2014 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 LSU
Week 3 Oklahoma
Week 4 North Carolina State
Week 5 Nebraska
Week 6 Auburn
Week 7 Mississippi State
Week 8 Florida State

2014 World Series Projection, October 26

San Francisco over Kansas City

World Series
SF 2-2 KC

League Championship Series
KC 4-0 BAL
SF 4-1 STL

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 3-1 LAD
SF 3-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

TeamStrengthWin
SF0.536352.56
KC0.519347.44

Here we are again, back even. San Francisco's advantage shrinks each time the series evens, from 53.73% to 53.20% to now 52.56%. It's still better than being the underdog, but KC now has homefield advantage back, which should make this whole thing just about a tossup.

2014-10-25

2014 World Series Projection, October 25

Kansas City over San Francisco

World Series
SF 1-2 KC

League Championship Series
KC 4-0 BAL
SF 4-1 STL

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 3-1 LAD
SF 3-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

TeamStrengthWin
SF0.536333.85
KC0.519366.15

I believe this is the first time Kansas City has been projected as the winner, because they were the second weakest team, and the weakest, St. Louis, was never projected as the NLCS winner. Even after they swept the ALCS, I had San Francisco projected to beat them. Of course, Game 4 going San Francisco's way would even the series and tip it back in the Giants' favor.

2014-10-24

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 8, Thursday

Baltimore over Dallas

It's an extremely close race at the top of the AFC, with Baltimore, Denver, and Indianapolis having between a 22 and 23.7% chance of winning the conference, each. Despite yesterday's result, I'd still project San Diego to beat Denver just over 50% of the time, but not much more than that. The NFC stays the same, because none of them played yesterday.

I just found out that the London game this Sunday will be on at 8:30am local time for me, which sounds pretty good - I'll get a chance to watch games in 4 timeslots instead of 3, if I actually have a chance to stay home most of the day. However, I don't think I'd appreciate that quite as much if I was on the west coast. 6:30 on a Sunday just seems a little too early to drag myself out of bed for football.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL5-20.66078.63989.19571.31241.43823.77814.171
IND5-20.63293.90095.77776.21541.62022.32312.639
SD5-30.61113.85163.55838.58019.5269.9305.415
DEN6-10.61178.78694.62081.95143.88922.03812.001
GB5-20.59343.17972.74153.78329.04415.4687.489
DET5-20.58947.17076.58058.34831.33716.5157.929
DAL6-10.58954.28587.02669.84137.49619.8619.533
PHI5-10.58544.62278.70860.17531.85116.7237.962
ARI5-10.54561.51474.76554.81026.58412.6375.506
KC3-30.5447.35738.20620.1338.7213.8001.811
NE5-20.54359.97267.93240.31717.3257.4403.537
SEA3-30.53316.16329.61917.5168.1233.7861.608
CHI4-30.5249.43329.20817.3928.0003.6741.528
SF4-30.52420.73139.12323.28010.6004.8262.004
HOU3-40.5115.56918.2438.6313.4771.4180.630
BUF4-30.50732.73041.63320.5748.0573.1821.399
CLE3-30.5025.54620.3749.7673.8411.5260.663
CIN3-2-10.4888.99030.88814.7945.6002.1430.903
PIT4-30.4836.82427.84812.9214.8461.8360.765
NO2-40.48228.46929.00512.3345.0402.0760.781
NYG3-40.4700.9126.2452.9741.1870.4840.177
MIA2-40.4676.7849.5694.1001.4570.5250.210
ATL2-50.45117.12917.3846.8162.5830.9900.344
WAS2-50.4390.1811.0030.4290.1590.0610.020
CAR3-3-10.43351.40051.67919.7947.1652.6170.867
STL2-40.4181.5932.5260.9990.3450.1230.039
MIN2-50.4110.2181.3250.5380.1860.0660.021
TEN2-50.3940.4971.4010.4710.1400.0420.014
NYJ1-60.3770.5140.6590.2060.0560.0150.005
TB1-50.3763.0033.0630.9720.3010.0940.027
OAK0-60.3740.0060.0300.0090.0030.0010.000
JAC1-60.3430.0340.0690.0200.0050.0010.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]

2014-10-23

2014 World Series Projection, October 23

San Francisco over Kansas City

World Series
SF 1-1 KC

League Championship Series
KC 4-0 BAL
SF 4-1 STL

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 3-1 LAD
SF 3-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

TeamStrengthWin
SF0.536353.20
KC0.519346.80

We're back even, and San Francisco isn't quite as well off as they were at 0-0, though they're just slightly lower than before. That's because a longer series always favors the stronger team, and this is now basically as best-of-5, but with the NL now having homefield advantage (and #1 and #2 starters already used).


2014-10-22

2014 World Series Projection, October 22

San Francisco over Kansas City

World Series
SF 1-0 KC

League Championship Series
KC 4-0 BAL
STL 1-4 SF

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 3-1 LAD
SF 3-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

TeamStrengthWin
SF0.536368.77
KC0.519331.23

In this series, the teams are closely matched enough that it will always favor the team that is leading, and San Francisco when it is tied. So, the more interesting piece of information is how likely the win is. Right now, that's over 68% in the Giants' favor. The Royals playoff win streak stopped at 8, or 11 if you count multi-year streaks, as they won the last 3 games of the 1985 World Series in their last playoff appearance.


2014-10-21

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 7, Final

Baltimore over Dallas

The matchup of two 3-3 AFC teams didn't affect much at the top of the conference, and Baltimore is still favored. They did lose a little ground in the division since it was Pittsburgh that won. But, the Pittsburgh point differential is still negative, which makes it rather unlikely they'd be projected to surpass Baltimore, and so they're only projected to win the division in under 7% of cases. Indianapolis got a boost from the Houston loss and has the largest division chances of any team, but they stayed just behind Baltimore in terms of Superbowl chances.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL5-20.66078.18188.56971.26741.48223.73414.143
SD5-20.63539.10779.51857.57531.52316.8559.600
IND5-20.63293.89995.62476.71242.04822.44912.704
GB5-20.59343.18672.77253.78129.04115.4677.469
DEN5-10.59052.20584.64964.45032.05615.3288.011
DET5-20.58947.16976.62158.38731.36716.5267.920
DAL6-10.58954.28287.06569.87137.50519.8659.518
PHI5-10.58544.62778.75560.21531.85916.7187.943
ARI5-10.54561.75274.94054.97026.65612.6785.512
KC3-30.5448.68236.69619.7468.5913.7351.780
NE5-20.54359.68867.48640.07917.2687.4033.518
SEA3-30.53316.21429.64717.5198.1283.7911.606
CHI4-30.5249.42729.23917.4078.0043.6741.522
SF4-30.52420.43638.69122.97510.4594.7661.975
HOU3-40.5115.56917.4728.3183.3631.3710.608
BUF4-30.50733.07341.87520.5728.0683.1791.398
CLE3-30.5025.60119.4789.3913.7021.4700.640
CIN3-2-10.4889.32330.49314.7405.5892.1320.898
PIT4-30.4836.89526.72712.4884.6921.7760.741
NO2-40.48228.46629.00612.3355.0442.0810.781
NYG3-40.4700.9096.2612.9801.1900.4850.177
MIA2-40.4676.7299.3603.9931.4220.5110.205
ATL2-50.45117.12517.3836.8132.5820.9880.342
WAS2-50.4390.1811.0080.4310.1600.0600.020
CAR3-3-10.43351.40651.68719.8037.1702.6170.864
STL2-40.4181.5992.5341.0010.3460.1240.039
MIN2-50.4110.2191.3260.5390.1860.0660.020
TEN2-50.3940.4981.3150.4430.1330.0400.013
NYJ1-60.3770.5110.6420.1980.0540.0150.005
TB1-50.3763.0033.0640.9720.3010.0940.027
OAK0-60.3740.0060.0300.0090.0030.0010.000
JAC1-60.3430.0340.0660.0180.0050.0010.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]

2014-10-20

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 7, Sunday

Baltimore over Dallas

Dallas took over the NFC lead with a win during Philadelphia's bye week, and a division win at that, which will help in case it comes to a tiebreaker with Philadelphia.

San Diego lost, and Baltimore was able to swoop in to take the AFC lead for the first time this year. Indianapolis improved their strength number significantly with a 27-0 win against Cincinnati, dropping the once-favorites to 3-2-1 and just a 30% chance of even making the playoffs. Indianapolis improved their position enough to now have a 93% chance of making the playoffs - and to get a mention in my high-water-marks list - presumably due to an easier schedule than Baltimore, and San Diego's close competition with Denver for that division.

The Rams are showing signs of life, with a fake punt and a fake punt return, which I missed live. I had to watch the video before I could even grasp what a fake punt return is, but it worked beautifully. The NFC West isn't looking so hot this year, except for 5-1 Arizona, who were NFC favorites earlier in the year.

Finally, congrats to Jacksonville for picking up a win, but my projections still say you'd lose to 0-6 Oakland.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL5-20.66080.18788.90971.20241.42523.71914.133
SD5-20.63539.06778.96957.13531.26716.7239.528
IND5-20.63189.38293.66875.43741.34222.05412.488
GB5-20.59343.17772.75953.76829.03615.4637.473
DEN5-10.58952.16184.21564.09931.86815.2457.967
DET5-20.58947.17576.62858.39031.35616.5277.915
DAL6-10.58954.52487.13369.99837.58519.9089.542
PHI5-10.58544.37378.53359.96731.72616.6477.911
ARI5-10.54561.74574.94954.98026.66612.6785.511
KC3-30.5448.76636.15219.5018.4943.6961.762
NE5-20.54359.68267.24139.80717.1517.3513.495
SEA3-30.53316.21529.68317.5458.1403.7971.610
HOU3-30.52710.17433.00317.0507.1433.0031.380
CHI4-30.5249.43029.24617.4138.0083.6761.523
SF4-30.52420.43938.73123.00610.4734.7721.978
BUF4-30.50733.06841.61220.3987.9993.1541.388
CLE3-30.5026.00219.3709.3273.6841.4640.637
CIN3-2-10.4889.91130.62414.8195.6292.1510.905
NO2-40.48228.63429.18012.4065.0732.0920.789
NYG3-40.4700.9216.3123.0061.2000.4900.179
PIT3-30.4683.89915.0206.6482.4080.8800.354
MIA2-40.4676.7319.2683.9441.4070.5060.202
ATL2-50.45117.25717.5196.8722.6070.9980.345
WAS2-50.4390.1831.0080.4320.1600.0610.020
CAR3-3-10.43351.13451.42119.7177.1392.6070.861
STL2-40.4181.6002.5351.0010.3470.1240.039
MIN2-50.4110.2181.3280.5390.1860.0660.020
TEN2-50.3940.4171.2180.4100.1220.0370.012
NYJ1-60.3770.5190.6410.1970.0540.0150.005
TB1-50.3762.9763.0350.9610.2970.0930.026
OAK0-60.3740.0060.0280.0090.0020.0010.000
JAC1-60.3430.0270.0610.0170.0040.0010.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]

2014-10-19

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 8

Florida State finally reached the top of my rankings, which would have likely been the result for Notre Dame as well, since the teams were #3 and #4 going into this week. Now Notre Dame is down to #8. Ole Miss stayed at #2, and Mississippi State dropped 2 spots to #3 in their bye week.

To quote my Mizzou-alumni pal, the SEC East is a hell of a division this year. Fresh off their shutout against Georgia, Missouri is back up to #20 in my rankings, after nearly shutting out Florida, before allowing a few scores once the game was out of hand.

At the bottom, both Kent State and Idaho got their first wins, and the SMU Mustangs are your new bottom of the pack

1Florida State7-0
2Ole Miss7-0
3Mississippi State6-0
4Marshall7-0
5Alabama6-1
6Oregon6-1
7Michigan State6-1
8Notre Dame6-1
9Nebraska6-1
10LSU6-2
11Minnesota6-1
12Georgia6-1
13Louisville6-2
14Baylor6-1
15Colorado State6-1
16Clemson5-2
17Auburn5-1
18Duke6-1
19UCLA5-2
20Missouri5-2
21TCU5-1
22Maryland5-2
23West Virginia5-2
24Kansas State5-1
25Arizona5-1
26Georgia Tech5-2
27USC5-2
28Utah5-1
29Texas A&M5-3
30Oklahoma5-2
31Boise State5-2
32Ohio State5-1
33Washington5-2
34Oklahoma State5-2
35Kentucky5-2
36East Carolina5-1
37Arizona State5-1
38Iowa5-2
39Middle Tennessee5-3
40Rutgers5-2
41Virginia Tech4-3
42UCF4-2
43South Carolina4-3
44Virginia4-3
45Miami (FL)4-3
46North Carolina State4-4
47Northern Illinois5-2
48Air Force5-2
49Pittsburgh4-3
50Wisconsin4-2
51Boston College4-3
52Utah State4-3
53Georgia Southern5-2
54Arkansas State4-2
55Bowling Green5-3
56California4-3
57Nevada4-3
58Penn State4-2
59BYU4-3
60Stanford4-3
61Toledo4-3
62Oregon State4-2
63Houston4-3
64Louisiana Tech4-3
65Syracuse3-4
66North Carolina3-4
67Central Michigan4-4
68Florida3-3
69Akron4-3
70Tennessee3-4
71Western Michigan4-3
72Northwestern3-4
73Ohio4-4
74Purdue3-5
75UAB4-3
76South Alabama4-2
77Indiana3-4
78San Diego State4-3
79Arkansas3-4
80Temple4-2
81Memphis3-3
82San Jose State3-3
83Wyoming3-4
84Illinois3-4
85Michigan3-4
86Texas Tech3-4
87Southern Miss3-4
88Louisiana-Lafayette3-3
89Texas3-4
90Florida International3-5
91South Florida3-4
92Rice3-3
93Louisiana-Monroe3-3
94Cincinnati3-3
95UTEP3-3
96Fresno State3-5
97Florida Atlantic3-4
98Navy3-4
99Iowa State2-5
100Buffalo3-4
101Vanderbilt2-5
102Washington State2-5
103Kansas2-5
104Texas State3-3
105Tulane2-5
106Western Kentucky2-4
107Colorado2-5
108Wake Forest2-5
109UTSA2-5
110Ball State2-5
111UNLV2-5
112Hawaii2-5
113Eastern Michigan2-5
114Appalachian State2-5
115New Mexico2-5
116Army2-5
117North Texas2-5
118Connecticut1-5
119Massachusetts2-6
120New Mexico State2-6
121Tulsa1-6
122Georgia State1-6
123Kent State1-6
124Troy1-6
125Miami (OH)1-7
126Idaho1-6
127SMU0-6


2014 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 LSU
Week 3 Oklahoma
Week 4 North Carolina State
Week 5 Nebraska
Week 6 Auburn
Week 7 Mississippi State

2014-10-17

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 7, Thursday

San Diego over Philadelphia

I've barely got time to post today, and no time for analysis, so I'll just say that unsurprisingly, the all AFC East game didn't affect the AFC West and NFC East projected Conference Champs.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SD5-10.63360.15286.88171.19040.94923.24413.496
BAL4-20.62452.34073.42355.04030.73016.8279.606
DET4-20.59053.21372.82655.24030.48916.5438.361
IND4-20.58678.91683.62359.09030.33815.2288.101
PHI5-10.58651.31480.27062.84034.22318.5319.283
DEN4-10.57534.41372.37450.82825.07612.4276.469
DAL5-10.57244.24579.37260.39831.78516.7018.143
GB4-20.55836.84957.67539.31520.10210.1924.825
NE5-20.54361.19668.54542.70619.6068.8944.344
CIN3-1-10.53926.77052.65233.85715.5217.0123.399
SF4-20.53831.05053.85235.92217.5008.4223.820
KC2-30.5385.40421.51611.9445.4222.4841.202
SEA3-20.53826.63045.41029.97914.5897.0223.181
CLE3-20.53516.85138.06822.91510.4114.6752.250
HOU3-30.52718.87935.09419.4528.6403.8211.804
ARI4-10.52141.52162.28243.10920.3259.4234.113
BUF3-30.50424.29131.25815.6376.5162.7171.224
CHI3-30.4988.85920.88211.8485.3112.3710.982
MIA2-30.49214.05019.0259.3383.8041.5500.679
ATL2-40.49019.79821.0629.8544.2431.8330.746
NYG3-30.4904.29917.1169.1663.9761.7460.709
NO2-30.48524.86027.03013.0345.5512.3650.950
CAR3-2-10.47053.97655.29526.47910.8984.4841.736
PIT3-30.4684.03913.2226.4482.4890.9590.398
WAS1-50.4380.1430.7840.3380.1300.0510.018
STL1-40.4160.7991.4330.5900.2120.0780.026
MIN2-40.4161.0793.2481.3990.5110.1880.063
TEN2-40.4022.1693.5961.3220.4290.1410.049
OAK0-50.3970.0300.1160.0410.0130.0040.001
NYJ1-60.3760.4620.5610.1760.0520.0160.005
TB1-50.3751.3661.4640.4910.1580.0510.015
JAC0-60.3410.0370.0490.0140.0040.0010.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]

2014 World Series Projection, October 17

San Francisco over Kansas City

World Series
SF 0-0 KC

League Championship Series
KC 4-0 BAL
STL 1-4 SF

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 3-1 LAD
SF 3-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

TeamStrengthWin
SF0.536347.95
KC0.519346.84

Edit: Here's the real table. I accidentally used the October 16th numbers, when the Cardinals were still alive.

TeamStrengthWin
SF0.536353.73
KC0.519346.27

The Cardinals gave it a good effort, but the Giants just couldn't be stopped. Every time it looked like we had them, they'd come right back. Some might argue about whether it was their good hitting or our poor pitching and/or fielding that led to each comeback, but that's probably a silly argument that could go on about lots of games during the year.

Now the Giants will face another team that seems to be unstoppable, the Royals. Like I said yesterday, one of these teams will set the record for most wins in a single postseason (I'm not counting game 163 tiebreaks as postseason) with 12. I suppose I'll be rooting for my home-state team, the Royals.

2014-10-16

2011 Allen and Ginter Discount Blaster

This box had been sitting in my unopened pack box for far too long. I picked it up for 11.99 maybe a year or more ago, whenever Target had them in their discount section.

2011 Allen and Ginter
#2 Ty Wigginton
#10 Miguel Cabrera
#22 Michael Bourn
#28 John Lindsey
#30 Hanley Ramirez
#31 Jimmy Rollins
#41 Carlos Santana
#51 Tim Collins
The base cards started off in a promising direction for my collection, with a one-time Cardinal, Ty Wigginton. But, that would be all I would get among the base cards. Let's see the rest of them anway.

2011 Allen and Ginter
#56 Scott Kazmir
#62 Alfonzo Soriano
#87 Colby Lewis
#97 Zach Britton
#118 Rafael Soriano
#124 Chad Billingsley
#149 Lars Anderson
#166 Geovany Soto
I didn't remember that Rafael Soriano also played for the Yankees, so at first I thought they put Alfonso in some weird pitcher-looking pose. Seeing his Cubs card made me realize what was going on, though.

2011 Allen and Ginter
#173 Mariano Rivera
#183 Mike Napoli
#205 Kendry Morales
#215 Andrew McCutchen
#254 Denard Span
#276 Desmond Jennings
#322 Trevor Cahill
#335 Jason Heyward
If I've read my online checklists correctly, those last 2 are among the short printed base cards, along with the next two. They don't seem all that short printed from this box, since they compose 1/7 of the set, and over 1/7 (4/26) of the base cards I received. Maybe I'm not accounting for something else in my math there.

2011 Allen and Ginter
#320 Jon Lester
#323 Orlando Hudson
Floating Fortresses #FF15 USS Cairo
Ginter Code Card
Animals in Peril #AP22 Sea Otter
The greatest threat to the Sea Otter? That'd be Floating Fortresses. I'm kidding...maybe...I don't really know why the otter is in peril. I do know the Otters were our local minor league hockey team many years ago.

2011 Allen and Ginter
Baseball Highlight Sketches
#BHS-10 Ryan Howard
#BHS-13 San Francisco Giants
Hometown Heroes
#HH2 Colby Rasmus
#HH15 Matt Holliday
#HH23 Dustin Pedroia
#HH24 Ryan Zimmerman
#HH34 Chipper Jones
#HH47 Phil Hughes
I have a few of these Hometown Heroes cards, but luckily neither of the Cardinals I pulled, Matt Holliday and Colby Rasmus. The sketches aren't bad either, one of them featuring native St. Louisan Ryan Howard. There was talk about the Cardinals trying to sign him in lieu of Pujols back when the contract talks were going on, but I think they came out ahead overall by not getting either one.


2011 Allen and Ginter
Mini #152 Ryan Zimmerman
Mini #308 Jhonny Peralta
Mini Allen and Ginter Back #254 Denard Span
Mini Allen and Ginter Back #264 Adam Jones
Mini Black Border #348 Russell Martin
Portraits of Penultimacy #PP1 Antonio Meucci
Step Right Up #SRU3 Fire Eating
Code Card #201 Andrew Romine
Ascent of Man #AOM15 Catarrhini
Minds That Made The Future #MMF9 Elisha Otis
Checklists #4
Here we have the big draw of Allen and Ginter, the minis. I got 2 regular and 2 A&G backs, and one black border, so none of the extreme low-numbered parallels. I almost filed that Andrew Romine with the base cards, but it has the Ginter Code symbols on its corners.

2011 Allen and Ginter
Framed Relics #AGR-FH Felix Hernandez
Finally, the prize of the pack is this Felix Hernandez Relic. He'll definitely be in the running for the AL Cy Young this year, having won the ERA title, even if it was on questionable retroactive scoring decisions. I think the biggest knock against him will be that the voters for these awards like to see a guy make the postseason, and the Mariners clearly did not this year, while Max Scherzer's Tigers did.

I give this discount box a 35 stars out of 37, which doesn't really mean much of anything. A retail relic is always a nice surprise, and at 8 bucks off the original price, how can I go wrong?


2014 World Series Projection, October 16

San Francisco over Kansas City

World Series
TBD 0-0 KC

League Championship Series
KC 4-0 BAL
STL 1-3 SF

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 3-1 LAD
SF 3-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

TeamStrengthWSWin
SF0.5363 89.2447.95
KC0.5193100.0046.84
STL0.511910.76 5.20

Kansas City just looks unstoppable right now, and they finished off Baltimore in a 4-game sweep. The Giants also appear too tough for this year's Cardinals, but there's still (hopefully) 3 games to play.

So far KC is 8-0 this postseason. No team has ever gone 12-0 in the postseason, which is a silly thing to say, because there has only been the opportunity to even play 12 games for 2 previous years. Still, if San Francisco beats St. Louis, and we have another all-wildcard World Series, someone will set a record with 12 postseason wins. If a division winner wins the World Series, they only need 11 wins, due to their lack of a Wild Card play-in game. The only other time the wildcard vs. wildcard series happened - Anaheim over San Francisco in 2002 - there was no play-in game, so the Angels won 11 just like any other team would have.


2014-10-15

2014 World Series Projection, October 15

San Francisco over Kansas City

League Championship Series
KC 3-0 BAL
STL 1-2 SF

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 3-1 LAD
SF 3-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

TeamStrengthWSWin
BAL0.57839.795.93
SF0.536372.3237.94
KC0.519390.2143.08
STL0.511927.6813.05

We're back to that weird situation where Kansas City is the overall World Series favorite (I didn't think I'd be typing that in my lifetime), but in the most likely matchup, vs San Francisco, they would not be favored.

I used to complain about the off days that weren't travel days sometimes inserted into the LDS and LCS so that there would be no days without baseball, and it only slightly appeased me to have them actually start one league a day later so the off days could at least be considered travel days, but after Monday's rainout in Kansas City, I learned that I prefer the offset format, so that there's baseball every day, at least through the first part of the series and until one team wins one. But for now, games 3, 4, and 5 of the LCSs will be played on the same days. It appears that - if Baltimore can win the next two - there will not be an off day when the ALCS goes back to Baltimore, so there may still be baseball on the NL's travel day.


2014-10-14

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 6, Final

San Diego over Philadelphia

These divisional games on Mondays and Thursdays make my posts less interesting. The AFC was relatively unaffected, and only the NFC East would have much of a change due to tiebreakers against common opponents. But, in the NFC West, the defending Superbowl champs, Seattle, are now the third most likely team to win the division at 26.6%, behind Arizona at 41.5%, and San Francisco at 31.0%. The Rams are basically out of it, with about an 0.8% chance of pulling off a division win.

I should note that Jacksonville's 0.000% chance of winning the Superbowl isn't actually 0, but it is low enough to round to that. The exact value today is 0.000319%, if you're not into significant figures.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SD5-10.63360.17987.08571.73841.32823.46913.627
BAL4-20.62452.32773.70155.61531.10617.0339.722
DET4-20.59053.21072.87555.29530.52516.5548.372
IND4-20.58678.95883.72459.57230.63415.3768.183
PHI5-10.58651.29980.24062.81234.21518.5239.278
DEN4-10.57534.42172.83051.48325.41512.5926.558
DAL5-10.57244.26079.35760.37331.76416.6898.140
GB4-20.55836.86657.76039.37620.13710.2154.837
CIN3-1-10.53926.78353.03634.38615.7727.1253.454
NE4-20.53953.82060.37936.32716.5177.4403.609
SF4-20.53831.04153.80835.89517.4848.4153.818
KC2-30.5385.37021.66512.1185.4982.5201.217
SEA3-20.53826.63745.38929.96314.5777.0153.175
CLE3-20.53516.85838.42723.34910.6114.7612.290
HOU3-30.52718.84535.29419.7198.7613.8771.831
ARI4-10.52141.52362.25943.08420.3079.4164.109
BUF3-30.50428.13934.00916.9307.0482.9361.321
CHI3-30.4988.85520.92811.8735.3202.3770.985
MIA2-30.49216.36320.79310.1564.1301.6830.737
ATL2-40.49019.80021.0639.8554.2431.8310.744
NYG3-30.4904.29717.0909.1493.9731.7440.707
NO2-30.48524.85927.03213.0375.5502.3680.951
CAR3-2-10.47053.97455.28926.47710.8984.4851.737
PIT3-30.4684.03113.3736.5902.5420.9820.407
WAS1-50.4380.1440.7830.3380.1300.0510.018
STL1-40.4160.7991.4290.5880.2120.0780.026
MIN2-40.4161.0693.2341.3940.5090.1880.064
TEN2-40.4022.1613.6311.3480.4380.1440.051
OAK0-50.3970.0300.1190.0420.0130.0040.001
NYJ1-50.3811.6791.8850.6140.1830.0550.018
TB1-50.3751.3671.4640.4910.1580.0510.015
JAC0-60.3410.0360.0490.0140.0040.0010.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]

2014-10-13

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 6, Sunday

San Diego over Philadelphia

Dallas won, but Philadelphia won in a huge shutout, and took over the NFC East title and NFC Championship chances.

Despite being at the top, San Diego beat Oakland by just a field goal, which seems a little discordant. Perhaps Oakland will climb up the charts a bit after their coaching change, but my money would still be on a sub-.250 season.

We had a tie for the 4th year in a row yesterday, an event that annually makes me question whether I ever made my projection software to handle it. Then I look back and see we had one last year, and all is at peace in my mind again.

Tonight, the Rams host the 49ers, and the fans have clearly already given up for the year. Earlier this week, tickets were going as cheap as $8 on the secondary market. As of Monday morning, the cheapest were still under $20. October, at least when the Cardinals are in the playoffs, is not a great time for the Rams and Blues to try to get any attention. The Blues home opener completely sneaked up on me, getting almost no local coverage. With the Cardinals off tonight, and the Rams the only football on TV, a good game might bring some local fans back to the team. I'll support them at least until they leave town, and tonight I'll be wearing my "Greatest Show on Turf" Stephen Jackson throwback jersey.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SD5-10.63360.25487.19871.84841.37923.49813.674
BAL4-20.62452.34273.70855.61331.10017.0279.735
DET4-20.59053.23374.04956.67331.47617.1148.650
IND4-20.58678.96883.72759.56930.62015.3678.194
PHI5-10.58651.28981.53364.13935.08219.0609.544
DEN4-10.57534.46572.98551.59725.47412.6216.584
DAL5-10.57244.24780.59661.60232.53417.1518.362
GB4-20.55836.85359.33840.82520.98010.6575.049
CIN3-1-10.53926.77553.03934.37715.7717.1253.464
NE4-20.53953.81760.38236.32716.5197.4423.618
KC2-30.5385.25121.39211.9455.4202.4851.203
SEA3-20.53830.48748.15931.98815.5947.5193.404
CLE3-20.53516.85638.42423.34010.6064.7622.296
HOU3-30.52718.83435.27819.6998.7533.8711.834
ARI4-10.52146.16364.10744.71721.1559.8304.290
SF3-20.50920.20137.31322.85210.4264.7222.007
BUF3-30.50428.14934.02416.9347.0522.9371.325
CHI3-30.4988.84221.76412.4195.5862.5001.035
MIA2-30.49216.35520.78610.1474.1271.6800.739
ATL2-40.49019.69621.1259.9954.3181.8740.762
NYG3-30.4904.32018.1219.7384.2321.8620.758
NO2-30.48525.24027.71413.5055.7742.4710.992
CAR3-2-10.47053.70955.23126.80611.0824.5781.773
PIT3-30.4684.02713.3706.5862.5430.9810.407
STL1-30.4403.1495.0482.3100.8840.3430.123
WAS1-50.4380.1450.8740.3780.1440.0560.020
MIN2-40.4161.0723.5561.5550.5690.2100.071
TEN2-40.4022.1623.6331.3470.4370.1430.050
OAK0-50.3970.0300.1200.0420.0130.0040.002
NYJ1-50.3811.6781.8840.6130.1820.0550.019
TB1-50.3751.3551.4710.4980.1610.0520.016
JAC0-60.3410.0360.0490.0140.0040.0010.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]

2014 World Series Projection, October 13

San Francisco over Kansas City

League Championship Series
KC 2-0 BAL
STL 1-1 SF

Division Series
KC 3-0 LAA
DET 0-3 BAL
STL 3-1 LAD
SF 3-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 KC
SF 1-0 PIT

TeamStrengthWSWin
BAL0.578327.0416.64
SF0.536354.5727.41
KC0.519372.9635.53
STL0.511945.4320.42

San Francisco still holds the statistical lead in the NL race, but it's obviously much closer to even, now that the series itself is tied 1-1.

Since the ALCS teams started a day earlier than the NLCS, they'll have potential for an extra rest day, along with homefield advantage, so I've got to root for Baltimore today. Also, that means I'll get one more day of baseball at the end of the series.