2020-02-02

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Championship Sunday

San Francisco over Kansas City

I'm a little late in posting this, but I got it in before the next game, so I'll call that a win. San Francisco remains the favorite, as they have been in the NFC since week 5. Kansas City has come back from early deficits in both games of the playoffs so far, so I won't count them out even if they give up some points early. This is one of the closer games since I've been projecting

XLVI New England over New York (78%)
XLVII San Francisco over Baltimore (67%)
XLVIII Seattle over Denver (63%)
XLIX Seattle over New England (55%)
50 Carolina over Denver (71%)
LI New England over Atlanta (70%)
LII Philadelphia over New England (50.6%)
LIII Los Angeles over New England (52%)

Now these are not locks, they're likelihood projections, but if you just take the favorite each year as my pick, the system is only 3-5. I'd have done just as well by just picking New England every year during the preseason. I'm kind of smelling another upset this year too, but we'll see what happens.

But who am I rooting for?

San Francisco (54%) vs Kansas City
Kansas City, of course. They're pretty much my #1 team now. Go Chefs!




TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF13-30.786++++++++++54.0
KC12-40.758++++++++++46.0
BAL14-20.869++++++---
NE12-40.866++++----
MIN10-60.708-++++---
NO13-30.708++++----
TEN9-70.642-++++++--
BUF10-60.640-++----
GB13-30.634++++++++--
PHI9-70.563++++----
SEA11-50.513-++++---
HOU10-60.486++++++---

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 17] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Divisional Saturday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Divisional Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City

2020-01-13

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Divisional Sunday

San Francisco over Kansas City

I really thought Kansas City would lose after giving up the first 24 points of the game, but they came back to score 51 and only allow 7 more, completing a Scorigami in the process. I didn't get to watch the Green Bay game, but it didn't seem like it was every really in doubt, despite the eventual close finish.

Tennessee at Kansas City (64%)
Once again, I've got to root for Kansas City in this one.

Green Bay at San Francisco (68%)
Since this is the second game of the day, I think it'll be contingent on the first. If Kansas City wins, I'll root for Green Bay just for the fun of a Super Bowl I rematch. If Tennessee wins, I'll root for San Francisco, because that's the only combination that gives me a glimmer of hope in Collector's Crack's 10th Annual Almost the Easiest Super Bowl Contest on the Web. I didn't pick Tennessee, but no one else did either, but I did pick San Francisco to lose (to New England). Then, I just need exactly 48 or 49 points to be scored, including 3 Field Goals to tie another entrant and exactly 4 to win outright. Piece of cake, right?

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF13-30.786++++++++67.9939.99
KC12-40.758++++++++63.6433.02
TEN9-70.641-++++++36.3614.01
GB13-30.634++++++++32.0112.98
BAL14-20.869++++++---
NE12-40.866++++----
MIN10-60.707-++++---
NO13-30.707++++----
BUF10-60.640-++----
PHI9-70.562++++----
SEA11-50.513-++++---
HOU10-60.486++++++---

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 17] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Divisional Saturday] San Francisco over Kansas City

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 20

We crosses a Saturday, so what the heck, let's call it another week. There were just 2 games since my last rankings. First was just another FBS bowl, Louisiana over Miami-Ohio.  The other game was the FCS title game, which went to North Dakota State for the 8th time in 9 years. They beat James Madison, the only other school to win the title in that span (2016).

Those results caused Louisiana to jump from #28 to #21, Miami to lose one place down to #47. Other seemingly random teams to move around were Liberty up one spot over Tulane at #64, Troy passing Tulsa at #92, and Arkansas moving from #123 to a tie with New Mexico for #122.

There's one game left, which should put the winner of LSU and Clemson atop my rankings.

1LSU14-0
2Clemson14-0
3Ohio State13-1
4Oregon12-2
5Appalachian State13-1
6Georgia12-2
7Memphis12-2
8Oklahoma12-2
9Boise State12-2
10Florida11-2
11Penn State11-2
12Notre Dame11-2
13Utah11-3
14Navy11-2
15Cincinnati11-3
16Baylor11-3
17Minnesota11-2
18Alabama11-2
19Air Force11-2
20Florida Atlantic11-3
21Louisiana11-3
22Wisconsin10-4
23Iowa10-3
24UCF10-3
25SMU10-3
26Hawai'i10-5
27San Diego State10-3
28Auburn9-4
29Michigan9-4
30Virginia9-5
31Louisiana Tech10-3
32Western Kentucky9-4
33Louisville8-5
34Washington8-5
35USC8-5
36Tennessee8-5
37Texas8-5
38Arizona State8-5
39Kansas State8-5
40Pittsburgh8-5
41Oklahoma State8-5
42Kentucky8-5
43Marshall8-5
44Wake Forest8-5
45California8-5
46Texas A&M8-5
47Miami (OH)8-6
48Buffalo8-5
49Virginia Tech8-5
50UAB9-5
51Arkansas State8-5
52Wyoming8-5
53Temple8-5
54Iowa State7-6
55Central Michigan8-6
56BYU7-6
57Utah State7-6
58North Carolina7-6
59Indiana8-5
60Michigan State7-6
61Kent State7-6
62Western Michigan7-6
63Georgia Southern7-6
64Liberty8-5
65Tulane7-6
66Southern Mississippi7-6
67Georgia State7-6
68Nevada7-6
69Ohio7-6
70Mississippi State6-7
71Florida State6-7
72Miami6-7
73Charlotte7-6
74Boston College6-7
75Missouri6-6
76Eastern Michigan6-7
77Toledo6-6
78Washington State6-7
79Duke5-7
80West Virginia5-7
81Florida International6-7
82Oregon State5-7
83Illinois6-7
84TCU5-7
85Colorado5-7
86Syracuse5-7
87UL Monroe5-7
88Ball State5-7
89South Carolina4-8
90Northern Illinois5-7
91Nebraska5-7
92Troy5-7
93Tulsa4-8
94UCLA4-8
95Coastal Carolina5-7
96South Florida4-8
97San Jose State5-7
98Army5-8
99Houston4-8
100Stanford4-8
101Fresno State4-8
102Arizona4-8
103Ole Miss4-8
104Texas Tech4-8
105Purdue4-8
106NC State4-8
107Middle Tennessee4-8
108UNLV4-8
109Colorado State4-8
110East Carolina4-8
111North Texas4-8
112UTSA4-8
113Georgia Tech3-9
114Texas State3-9
115Kansas3-9
116Bowling Green3-9
117Maryland3-9
118Vanderbilt3-9
119Northwestern3-9
120Rice3-9
121Rutgers2-10
T-122New Mexico2-10
T-122Arkansas2-10
124South Alabama2-10
125UConn2-10
126New Mexico State2-10
127Old Dominion1-11
128UTEP1-11
129UMass1-11
130Akron0-12

2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech
Week 3 Auburn
Week 4 Auburn
Week 5 Auburn
Week 6 Ohio State
Week 7 Ohio State
Week 8 Ohio State
Week 9 Ohio State
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson
Week 14 Ohio State
Week 15 Ohio State
Week 16 Ohio State
Week 17 Ohio State
Week 18 Clemson
Week 19 LSU

2020-01-12

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Divisional Saturday

San Francisco over Kansas City

Both teams I was rooting for won yesterday, San Francisco over Minnesota, and Tennessee in a surprisingly dominant win over Baltimore. Kansas City now becomes the first AFC team to be projected to make the Superbowl other than Baltimore or New England all season long.

Sunday games!

Houston at Kansas City (77%)
Kansas City is my default favorite team, so I'll pretty much always root for them. I don't think I can think of a matchup that would make me root against them, without some other side bet in play.

Seattle at Green Bay (62%)
In that past I'd root for Green Bay for sure, but I've grown to like Seattle a little bit. I think I'll still root for Green Bay, but I won't hate whichever team gets to take on San Francisco next week.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF13-30.786++++++++71.744.3
KC12-40.758++++++76.848.825.4
TEN9-70.641-++++++43.116.8
GB13-30.634++++++62.119.98.7
SEA11-50.513-++++37.98.42.7
HOU10-60.486++++++23.28.02.1
BAL14-20.869++++++---
NE12-40.866++++----
MIN10-60.707-++++---
NO13-30.707++++----
BUF10-60.640-++----
PHI9-70.562++++----

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 17] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco

2020-01-06

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Wildcard Sunday

Baltimore over San Francisco

The #1 seeds are still my favorites to make it to the Superbowl. Minnesota beat New Orleans, and Seattle beat Philadelphia, in a victory for the eye test over the numbers. Seattle has a lot of very small wins and a few big losses this year, skewing their strength well below their record.

Onto next weekend!

Minnesota at San Francisco (60%)
For being favored all year, I feel like San Francisco should be a bigger favorite in their first playoff game. I've never been a huge Kirk Cousins fan, so let's root for Jimmy Garoppolo and San Francisco to win this one.

Tennessee at Baltimore (79%)
There's that dominant number I come to expect. But, just to throw a monkey wrench into everything, let's root for Tennessee in this one. Neither team really grabs my attention either way, but Tennessee would be quite the Cinderella story, and also potentially make the path easier for Kansas City.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL14-20.869++++++78.857.141.1
SF13-30.786++++++60.343.219.8
KC12-40.758++++++76.829.716.5
MIN10-60.707-++++39.724.89.0
GB13-30.634++++++62.222.36.6
TEN9-70.641-++++21.29.13.9
SEA11-50.513-++++37.89.62.0
HOU10-60.486++++++23.24.01.1
NE12-40.866++++----
DAL8-80.711------
NO13-30.707++++----
BUF10-60.640-++----
PHI9-70.562++++----
LAR9-70.559------
TB7-90.515------
LAC5-110.482------
IND7-90.476------
ATL7-90.466------
PIT8-80.465------
CHI8-80.454------
DEN7-90.416------
CLE6-100.383------
ARI5-10-10.353------
DET3-12-10.344------
NYJ7-90.313------
NYG4-120.302------
JAC6-100.302------
OAK7-90.295------
CAR5-110.275------
CIN2-140.227------
MIA5-110.193------
WAS3-130.187------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 17] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco

2020-01-05

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 19

Well that's interesting. There were just 17 games this week, but mostly involving some high ranking and power 5 teams. They managed to flip the #1 and #2 spot by changing strengths of schedule, and LSU is now on top of my rankings for the first time this season. If I'm looking at the schedules correctly, 4 Clemson opponents played but only one won, while 4 of 6 LSU opponents won. There are just 3 games remaining this year, one random Monday night bowl game, the FCS title game on Saturday, and the FBS title game next Monday.

1LSU14-0
2Clemson14-0
3Ohio State13-1
4Oregon12-2
5Appalachian State13-1
6Georgia12-2
7Memphis12-2
8Oklahoma12-2
9Boise State12-2
10Florida11-2
11Penn State11-2
12Notre Dame11-2
13Utah11-3
14Navy11-2
15Cincinnati11-3
16Baylor11-3
17Minnesota11-2
18Alabama11-2
19Air Force11-2
20Florida Atlantic11-3
21Wisconsin10-4
22Iowa10-3
23UCF10-3
24SMU10-3
25Hawai'i10-5
26San Diego State10-3
27Auburn9-4
28Louisiana10-3
29Michigan9-4
30Virginia9-5
31Louisiana Tech10-3
32Western Kentucky9-4
33Louisville8-5
34Washington8-5
35USC8-5
36Tennessee8-5
37Texas8-5
38Arizona State8-5
39Kansas State8-5
40Pittsburgh8-5
41Oklahoma State8-5
42Kentucky8-5
43Marshall8-5
44Wake Forest8-5
45California8-5
46Miami (OH)8-5
47Texas A&M8-5
48Buffalo8-5
49Virginia Tech8-5
50UAB9-5
51Arkansas State8-5
52Wyoming8-5
53Temple8-5
54Iowa State7-6
55Central Michigan8-6
56BYU7-6
57Utah State7-6
58North Carolina7-6
59Indiana8-5
60Michigan State7-6
61Kent State7-6
62Western Michigan7-6
63Georgia Southern7-6
64Tulane7-6
65Liberty8-5
66Southern Mississippi7-6
67Georgia State7-6
68Nevada7-6
69Ohio7-6
70Mississippi State6-7
71Florida State6-7
72Miami6-7
73Charlotte7-6
74Boston College6-7
75Missouri6-6
76Eastern Michigan6-7
77Toledo6-6
78Washington State6-7
79Duke5-7
80West Virginia5-7
81Florida International6-7
82Oregon State5-7
83Illinois6-7
84TCU5-7
85Colorado5-7
86Syracuse5-7
87UL Monroe5-7
88Ball State5-7
89South Carolina4-8
90Northern Illinois5-7
91Nebraska5-7
92Tulsa4-8
93Troy5-7
94UCLA4-8
95Coastal Carolina5-7
96South Florida4-8
97San Jose State5-7
98Army5-8
99Houston4-8
100Stanford4-8
101Fresno State4-8
102Arizona4-8
103Ole Miss4-8
104Texas Tech4-8
105Purdue4-8
106NC State4-8
107Middle Tennessee4-8
108UNLV4-8
109Colorado State4-8
110East Carolina4-8
111North Texas4-8
112UTSA4-8
113Georgia Tech3-9
114Texas State3-9
115Kansas3-9
116Bowling Green3-9
117Maryland3-9
118Vanderbilt3-9
119Northwestern3-9
120Rice3-9
121Rutgers2-10
122New Mexico2-10
123Arkansas2-10
124South Alabama2-10
125UConn2-10
126New Mexico State2-10
127Old Dominion1-11
128UTEP1-11
129UMass1-11
130Akron0-12

2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech
Week 3 Auburn
Week 4 Auburn
Week 5 Auburn
Week 6 Ohio State
Week 7 Ohio State
Week 8 Ohio State
Week 9 Ohio State
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson
Week 14 Ohio State
Week 15 Ohio State
Week 16 Ohio State
Week 17 Ohio State
Week 18 Clemson

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Wildcard Saturday

Baltimore over San Francisco

Based on my system, we had 2 upsets yesterday, as Houston beat Buffalo (35% likely) and Tennessee beat New England (just 22% likely). Houston was the higher seed and had homefield advantage, but using points scored and allowed, they were the underdogs. New England was my AFC favorite for most of the season, but they've been steadily falling off. Everyone's already talking about what Brady's going to do in the offseason, but there are still 10 teams vying to be the champ this year.

Sunday's games!

Minnesota at New Orleans (tossup)
This one's a small rounding error from being perfectly evenly matched. I usually find myself rooting against New Orleans, perhaps dating back to their days in the NFC West with St. Louis, so I'll root for Minnesota in this one.

Seattle at Philadelphia (55%)
I'm not totally sure I believe my system on this one, as Seattle seems like the better team. Still, I'll go with it and root for Philadelphia to beat Seattle, despite my fellow Wilson at QB. Maybe it's more anti-NFC-West bias.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL14-20.869++++++78.857.140.9
SF13-30.786++++++68.045.520.8
KC12-40.758++++++76.829.716.3
GB13-30.634++++++50.618.75.5
NO13-30.707++++50.029.113.54.9
MIN10-60.707-++50.019.812.34.5
TEN9-70.641-++++21.29.13.8
PHI9-70.562++++55.018.86.21.5
HOU10-60.486++++++23.24.01.1
SEA11-50.513-++45.013.53.90.8
NE12-40.866++++----
BUF10-60.640-++----

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 17] Baltimore over San Francisco

2019-12-30

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 17, Final

Baltimore over San Francisco

The regular season is over and the playoffs are set. We had the biggest upset possible, with the best team losing to the worst, so Miami causes New England to play themselves out of a first round bye. Instead, Baltimore and Kansas City get the byes, and Baltimore becomes the new AFC favorite. In the NFC, San Francisco won their matchup against Seattle for the divison, and thus takes the #1 seed and a first round bye, along with Green Bay.

You can tell from the chart who I think will win, but who am I rooting for on Saturday?

Buffalo (65%) at Houston
Buffalo seems fun, let's root for them. I really don't feel a strong pull towards either team in this one. I do appreciate that in the AFC the seeds worked out "correctly", as Buffalo would be behind Houston head to head due to conference record. That's frequently not the case in these matchups of the best wildcard at the worst division winner since 2002.

Tennessee at New England (78%)
Tough call here, as during the Rams' time in St. Louis, these are the two teams they faced in Super Bowls. Since they beat Tennessee, I'm not nearly as bitter about that team I guess. Plus everyone's tired of New England winning all the time. So let's root for another road team.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL14-20.869++++++81.2248.4334.64
NE12-40.866++++78.3552.8129.0520.63
SF13-30.786++++++68.0445.5018.64
KC12-40.758++++++40.3215.518.49
GB13-30.634++++++50.6418.744.73
NO13-30.707++++49.9929.1313.494.28
MIN10-60.708-++50.0119.8312.273.89
BUF10-60.640-++65.2815.924.241.75
PHI9-70.562++++54.9518.826.151.25
TEN9-70.641-++21.654.591.930.80
SEA11-50.513-++45.0513.543.850.67
HOU10-60.486++++34.725.140.850.23
DAL8-80.712------
LAR9-70.559------
TB7-90.515------
LAC5-110.482------
IND7-90.476------
ATL7-90.466------
PIT8-80.465------
CHI8-80.454------
DEN7-90.416------
CLE6-100.383------
ARI5-10-10.353------
DET3-12-10.344------
NYJ7-90.313------
NYG4-120.302------
JAC6-100.302------
OAK7-90.295------
CAR5-110.275------
CIN2-140.227------
MIA5-110.193------
WAS3-130.187------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Final] New England over San Francisco

2019-12-29

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 18

We've had 2 semifinals, and the winners of each are at the top of the rankings. As a result, my end of year #1 should match the national champion. LSU had no issue winning their game, outscoring Oklahoma 21-7 in the first quarter, and 28-7 in the second. Clemson trailed Ohio State for a lot of the back-and-forth game, including from 11:46 to go until 1:49 to go, when they scored the final touchdown and 2 point conversion to go up by 6.

1Clemson14-0
2LSU14-0
3Ohio State13-1
4Appalachian State13-1
5Memphis12-2
6Oklahoma12-2
7Boise State12-2
8Oregon11-2
9Penn State11-2
10Notre Dame11-2
11Georgia11-2
12Utah11-2
13Baylor11-2
14Air Force11-2
15Florida Atlantic11-3
16Florida10-2
17Wisconsin10-3
18Cincinnati10-3
19Iowa10-3
20Navy10-2
21UCF10-3
22Minnesota10-2
23SMU10-3
24Hawai'i10-5
25Alabama10-2
26San Diego State10-3
27Auburn9-3
28Louisiana10-3
29Michigan9-3
30Virginia9-4
31Louisiana Tech10-3
32Washington8-5
33USC8-5
34Kansas State8-4
35Pittsburgh8-5
36Oklahoma State8-5
37Wake Forest8-5
38Marshall8-5
39Virginia Tech8-4
40Miami (OH)8-5
41Texas A&M8-5
42Western Kentucky8-4
43Buffalo8-5
44Arkansas State8-5
45UAB9-5
46Louisville7-5
47Temple8-5
48Iowa State7-6
49Central Michigan8-6
50Tennessee7-5
51Arizona State7-5
52Texas7-5
53BYU7-6
54Indiana8-4
55Utah State7-6
56North Carolina7-6
57California7-5
58Western Michigan7-5
59Kentucky7-5
60Michigan State7-6
61Kent State7-6
62Georgia Southern7-6
63Southern Mississippi7-5
64Liberty8-5
65Georgia State7-5
66Wyoming7-5
67Nevada7-5
68Florida State6-6
69Mississippi State6-6
70Miami6-7
71Charlotte7-6
72Boston College6-6
73Tulane6-6
74Missouri6-6
75Eastern Michigan6-7
76Toledo6-6
77Ohio6-6
78Washington State6-7
79Duke5-7
80Illinois6-6
81West Virginia5-7
82Florida International6-7
83TCU5-7
84Oregon State5-7
85UL Monroe5-7
86Syracuse5-7
87Colorado5-7
88Ball State5-7
89Northern Illinois5-7
90South Carolina4-8
91Nebraska5-7
92Troy5-7
93Coastal Carolina5-7
94Tulsa4-8
95San Jose State5-7
96South Florida4-8
97UCLA4-8
98Army5-8
99Houston4-8
100Fresno State4-8
101Stanford4-8
102Arizona4-8
103Ole Miss4-8
104Texas Tech4-8
105Purdue4-8
106NC State4-8
107Middle Tennessee4-8
108UNLV4-8
109Colorado State4-8
110East Carolina4-8
111Georgia Tech3-9
112UTSA4-8
113North Texas4-8
114Texas State3-9
115Kansas3-9
116Bowling Green3-9
117Maryland3-9
118Northwestern3-9
119Vanderbilt3-9
120Rice3-9
121Rutgers2-10
122New Mexico2-10
123Arkansas2-10
124South Alabama2-10
125New Mexico State2-10
126UConn2-10
127Old Dominion1-11
128UTEP1-11
129UMass1-11
130Akron0-12

2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech
Week 3 Auburn
Week 4 Auburn
Week 5 Auburn
Week 6 Ohio State
Week 7 Ohio State
Week 8 Ohio State
Week 9 Ohio State
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson
Week 14 Ohio State
Week 15 Ohio State
Week 16 Ohio State
Week 17 Ohio State