2014-12-21

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 16, Saturday

New England over Seattle

My simulations now show that Green Bay has clinched, though other sites do not. I can only assume this means I have a tiebreaker setup wrong. I tried to construct a scenario in which they would miss the playoffs, but I couldn't.

First, I had them lose their next 2 games, to finish 10-6. Philadelphia has to win next week to go 10-6 as well, otherwise Green Bay would definitely be in. Against Philadelphia directly, Green Bay would win on conference record, 7-5 to 6-6. Against Philadelphia and Seattle both at 10-6, Seattle would win to get the #5 seed, but then we're back to the Green Bay vs Philadelphia scenario for #6.

So, that must mean it requires Dallas to be 10-6 as well as Philadelphia, so that the Eagles win the division. Either Seattle will win a game to clinch #5 (or better), or will also be 10-6. Then, they'd clinch #6 based on conference record, and it would be down to Dallas vs Green Bay for #6. Here are the tiebreakers:

1. Head to Head (did not play)
2. Conference Winning Percentage (both 7-5)
3. Common Games Winning Percentage, minimum of 4 (both 3-1)
4. Strength of Victory

I'm pretty sure Green Bay's current .443 SOV can't be beat by Dallas, which is at .406. Maybe this is a case of making no assumptions of SOV by default until the last week, on the part of the other websites. Or, maybe I've got something wrong. If you've read this far, and can see how the Packers could miss the playoffs, I'd love to hear from you.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE11-30.744++98.93661.69437.36922.767
BAL9-50.70627.00070.50042.10020.76011.2056.312
SEA10-40.70449.64399.25783.25649.97129.29315.077
GB10-40.68151.045+79.98545.68425.08912.250
IND10-40.679++58.24828.92914.0977.508
DEN11-30.656++98.52750.69622.30511.316
KC8-60.649-35.60218.6408.0293.6811.838
BUF8-60.630-14.8477.0103.0571.3510.647
PHI9-60.6128.2378.2373.8811.7800.8290.343
DET10-40.60648.955+72.09334.80015.4776.337
ARI11-30.60450.357+82.17036.61616.5936.754
HOU7-70.601-2.9791.3400.4690.2140.096
DAL10-40.59691.76392.50646.98221.0159.4253.766
PIT9-50.58933.70970.89332.73612.2844.8412.114
MIA7-70.554------
CIN9-4-10.54839.29274.83030.64410.4363.6811.459
SD9-60.525-30.34911.8183.6481.2570.471
STL6-80.487------
NO6-80.48257.41157.41119.2416.4642.1800.648
ATL5-90.46228.82928.8299.1462.9050.9300.261
NYG5-90.456------
SF7-80.455------
MIN6-80.455------
CLE7-70.446------
CAR5-8-10.36213.76113.7613.2460.7660.1830.038
CHI5-90.304------
WAS4-110.287------
TB2-120.281------
NYJ3-110.244------
JAC3-120.196------
TEN2-130.194------
OAK2-120.193------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 17

With 5 bowl games, 2 FCS Semi-Finals, and the Divisions II and III championships...nothing changed in the top 14 teams. At #15, Northern Illinois can now say they rank above a team once thought to be headed to the playoff (Ole Miss) by at least one nut on the internet.

The Division II title was won by Colorado State-Pueblo over Minnesota State, who as we all know, was once coached by our favorite college coach of all time, Hayden Fox. Division III was won by University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, over Mount Union. When I rank all 720 teams, UW-Whitewater actually comes out on top now, with a 15-0 record.

1Florida State13-0
2Alabama12-1
3Ohio State12-1
4Oregon12-1
5Boise State11-2
6TCU11-1
7Marshall12-1
8Baylor11-1
9Georgia Tech10-3
10Missouri10-3
11Wisconsin10-3
12Mississippi State10-2
13Michigan State10-2
14Arizona10-3
15Northern Illinois11-2
16Ole Miss9-3
17UCLA9-3
18Georgia9-3
19Utah State10-4
20Utah9-4
21Colorado State10-3
22Clemson9-3
23Kansas State9-3
24Nebraska9-3
25Air Force10-3
26Arizona State9-3
27Auburn8-4
28Louisville9-3
29LSU8-4
30Louisiana-Lafayette9-4
31Cincinnati9-3
32UCF9-3
33USC8-4
34Minnesota8-4
35Duke9-3
36Memphis9-3
37Oklahoma8-4
38Louisiana Tech8-5
39Washington8-5
40Toledo8-4
41Georgia Southern9-3
42BYU8-4
43Texas A&M7-5
44Maryland7-5
45Notre Dame7-5
46North Carolina State7-5
47Stanford7-5
48East Carolina8-4
49West Virginia7-5
50Rutgers7-5
51Boston College7-5
52Iowa7-5
53Western Michigan8-5
54Bowling Green8-6
55Navy7-5
56Western Kentucky7-5
57Tennessee6-6
58North Carolina6-6
59Arkansas6-6
60Nevada7-6
61Miami (FL)6-6
62Florida6-5
63Illinois6-6
64Rice7-5
65Virginia Tech6-6
66South Carolina6-6
67Arkansas State7-5
68Central Michigan7-5
69UTEP7-6
70Houston7-5
71Texas6-6
72Oklahoma State6-6
73Pittsburgh6-6
74Penn State6-6
75Appalachian State7-5
76Texas State7-5
77Virginia5-7
78Middle Tennessee6-6
79San Diego State6-5
80Fresno State6-7
81Old Dominion6-6
82UAB6-6
83Northwestern5-7
84Michigan5-7
85Kentucky5-7
86California5-7
87Temple6-6
88Ohio6-6
89South Alabama6-7
90Oregon State5-7
91Ball State5-7
92Indiana4-8
93Wyoming4-8
94Texas Tech4-8
95Buffalo5-6
96New Mexico4-8
97South Florida4-8
98Akron5-7
99Florida International4-8
100Syracuse3-9
101Army4-8
102Purdue3-9
103Washington State3-9
104Hawaii4-9
105UTSA4-8
106Vanderbilt3-9
107Louisiana-Monroe4-8
108Southern Miss3-9
109Kansas3-9
110Tulane3-9
111Wake Forest3-9
112San Jose State3-7
113North Texas4-8
114Iowa State2-10
115Florida Atlantic3-9
116Colorado2-10
117Troy3-9
118Eastern Michigan2-10
119UNLV2-11
120Massachusetts3-9
121Connecticut2-10
122Kent State2-9
123Miami (OH)2-10
124Tulsa2-10
125New Mexico State2-10
126SMU1-11
127Georgia State1-11
128Idaho1-10


2014 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 LSU
Week 3 Oklahoma
Week 4 North Carolina State
Week 5 Nebraska
Week 6 Auburn
Week 7 Mississippi State
Week 8 Florida State
Week 9 Mississippi State
Week 10 Mississippi State
Week 11 Mississippi State
Week 12 Florida State
Week 13 Florida State
Week 14 Florida State
Week 15 Florida State
Week 16 Florida State

2014-12-19

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 16, Thursday

New England over Seattle

Go figure, a game between 2 teams that were both 2-12 had virtually no effect on the rankings. The Division and Playoff percentages changed by at most about 0.01% on the teams still in the playoffs. Maybe I'll track draft position next year, in which the Jaguars certainly lost ground last night.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE11-30.744++98.90961.41937.14222.653
BAL9-50.70626.98373.90444.15021.81311.7466.628
SEA10-40.70349.70194.79680.68548.57628.42814.616
GB10-40.68151.02696.99978.03244.57824.50811.954
IND10-40.679++57.84528.73913.9787.453
DEN11-30.656++98.49550.42722.16011.259
KC8-60.649-35.86118.7758.0943.7091.855
BUF8-60.630-17.4878.3463.6111.5890.764
PHI9-50.61640.59745.44121.70710.0984.7811.996
DET10-40.60648.97494.09369.00833.33414.8936.091
ARI11-30.60450.299+82.11236.82916.7076.799
HOU7-70.601-4.2781.9330.6820.3060.137
DAL10-40.59659.40368.67136.50016.3667.3552.937
PIT9-50.58933.71572.22432.96412.3624.8652.131
MIA7-70.554-0.0520.0210.0060.0030.001
CIN9-4-10.54839.30278.33431.72310.7753.7961.510
SD8-60.520-17.8616.8412.0720.7060.261
STL6-80.487------
NO6-80.48257.39457.39419.4326.5142.2040.653
ATL5-90.46228.83628.8369.2352.9280.9380.263
SF7-70.460------
NYG5-90.456------
MIN6-80.455------
CLE7-70.446------
CAR5-8-10.36313.77013.7703.2880.7760.1850.038
CHI5-90.304------
WAS3-110.283------
TB2-120.281------
NYJ3-110.244------
JAC3-120.196------
TEN2-130.194------
OAK2-120.193------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]

2014-12-18

Yet Another Sports Card Info Contest Win

I just won one of the weekly contests from Sports Card Info back in August, which was my first baseball card win among the many contests I've won there, and now I have my first football card win. And it's gloriously shiny.

2006 Bowman Chrome - Rookie Autographs #228 Jason Avant
My football card collection is rather minor compared to my baseball cards, so thanks to a few contest wins it's got a relatively large percentage of autographs in it. Jason now plays on my favorite AFC team, the Kansas City Chiefs, who are still considered the favorite AFC team in St. Louis by the TV broadcast schedulers, so I get to watch them almost as often as the Rams. He's only seen limited action so far this season for KC, but I say he catches a 60 yard TD against Pittsburgh this week.

Thanks once again to Sports Card Info for having contest after contest, especially this one.


2014-12-16

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 15, Final

New England over Seattle

Yesterday I got a comment asking about the ridiculous looking ranking of having Dallas below Houston, despite the 3-game difference in record, and Dallas having actually beaten Houston.

To address the second point first, Dallas won by 3 in overtime, so that's practically a tie in terms of using head-to-head to determine who is better.

As for the Strength column, that's determined purely by points scored and points allowed, which is basically Bill James' baseball formula for determined a team's Pythagorean Winning Percentage. The theory goes that a team that allows about as many points as it scores will be about .500 in its future games, regardless of if it managed to pull off a bunch of small wins and few huge losses, or vice versa. That's why 7-7 San Francisco is listed at .460, but 7-7 Miami is at .554, and 7-7 Houston is at .601. A team could even be 1-13 at this point, but if they won a game 62-0 and lost the rest 2-0, they'd be near the top. The actual formula I use is somewhat complex, involving exponents, league-wide points per game, and regressing to .500 based on how far into the season it is, but there is a simplification that can be made for purposes of comparing 2 teams: the higher a team's pf/pa ratio, the higher their strength will be, where pf = points for, and pa = points against.

Houston has scored 324 point against 277 allowed. Dallas has scored 381, but allowed 328. That gives Houston a slightly higher ratio of pf/pa, and the corollary to that is that their strength is at .601, where Dallas is at .596. Houston's points have not been distributed as favorably for them, though, so they've won 3 less games than Dallas. The meaning of those strengths in my projections is that Houston would win 50.52% of the simulations if they played again. That's just barely an advantage.

One caveat to mention is that this is supposed to represent an average of the teams over their last 14 games, so the average Houston lineup over the last 14 games would be slightly favored to win over the average Dallas lineup. This doesn't mean the Houston lineup with the 3rd string QB would be favored to win this week against the mostly-intact Dallas lineup. It does mean that Arizona, even at 11-3, is likely even worse than their 11th-best ranking, since they're now on QB number 3 as well.

Hopefully all that made some sense. I realize I did a little hand-waving to get from pf/pa to strength, but I didn't want to post a full screen worth of LaTeX equations to show my work.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE11-30.744++98.91761.42937.15022.659
BAL9-50.70626.98773.90944.15021.81111.7486.630
SEA10-40.70349.70194.79680.68548.57828.43414.621
GB10-40.68151.02996.99778.03644.58124.50911.958
IND10-40.679++57.80528.71413.9667.448
DEN11-30.656++98.50450.43222.15911.254
KC8-60.649-35.86118.7718.0913.7101.855
BUF8-60.630-17.4828.3503.6111.5880.763
PHI9-50.61640.60445.44721.70610.1034.7822.000
DET10-40.60648.97194.09469.01033.32914.8916.091
ARI11-30.60450.299+82.11636.82416.7056.794
HOU7-70.601-4.2831.9370.6840.3060.138
DAL10-40.59659.39668.66636.49716.3687.3542.936
PIT9-50.58933.70772.21232.96712.3654.8642.127
MIA7-70.554-0.0520.0200.0060.0030.001
CIN9-4-10.54839.30778.34131.73310.7843.8001.510
SD8-60.520-17.8596.8462.0730.7060.262
STL6-80.487------
NO6-80.48257.40357.40319.4306.5132.2030.653
ATL5-90.46228.83028.8309.2342.9290.9380.263
SF7-70.460------
NYG5-90.456------
MIN6-80.455------
CLE7-70.446------
CAR5-8-10.36313.76713.7673.2860.7740.1840.038
CHI5-90.304------
WAS3-110.283------
TB2-120.281------
NYJ3-110.244------
TEN2-120.214------
JAC2-120.195------
OAK2-120.193------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]

2014-12-15

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 15, Sunday

New England over Seattle

Seattle took over the NFC, despite currently being a game behind in their division. They're just about even-money to win the NFC West, and that's not accounting for Arizona being down to their third string QB. In the AFC, New England, Indianapolis, and Denver all clinched their divisions, and the AFC North will likely account for the other 3 playoff teams. The 6 AFC teams could actually be locked up by the end of week 16, though with seeding still at stake in the final week. I'm sort of rooting for that, just to see if the NFL would really put the Carolina-Atlanta game in the prime time slot if it is likely to be the only remaining game decide a playoff berth.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE11-30.744++98.91761.42937.14922.638
BAL9-50.70626.98773.90844.15021.81111.7446.621
SEA10-40.70349.70094.88081.43949.10728.73614.777
GB10-40.68151.23296.99978.22544.76824.58911.995
IND10-40.679++57.80528.71213.9657.439
DEN11-30.656++98.50450.43622.16511.245
KC8-60.649-35.86118.7708.0913.7101.853
BUF8-60.630-17.4838.3503.6101.5890.762
PHI9-50.61640.60645.64621.81310.1534.8002.007
DET10-40.60648.76893.49268.54933.15914.8056.055
ARI11-30.60450.300+83.15737.29516.9046.875
HOU7-70.601-4.2841.9370.6840.3060.137
DAL10-40.59659.39468.98436.91616.5637.4312.966
PIT9-50.58933.70772.21332.96812.3664.8652.125
MIA7-70.554-0.0520.0200.0060.0030.001
CIN9-4-10.54839.30678.34031.73210.7823.7991.507
SD8-60.520-17.8606.8462.0740.7060.262
STL6-80.487------
ATL5-90.46232.57032.57010.4283.3071.0590.296
SF7-70.460------
NYG5-90.456------
MIN6-80.455------
NO5-80.45544.77844.77814.0714.3741.3730.376
CLE7-70.446------
CAR5-8-10.36322.65122.6515.4031.2730.3030.062
CHI5-80.331------
WAS3-110.283------
TB2-120.281------
NYJ3-110.244------
TEN2-120.214------
JAC2-120.195------
OAK2-120.193------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]

2014-12-14

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 16

There wasn't much movement today, with only one FBS game taking place, Navy defeating Army. There were also 4 FCS games, and 2 games each at Division II and III, which still affect the rankings, though they aren't likely to change an FBS team as you go further down the divisions due to who plays who. I do think that it's kind of interesting that the playoffs and bowls are already set before the FBS season officially ends. Would the whole thing have to be put on hold for a week if Army or Navy were 11-0 going into this game?

None of my top 25 teams changed positions after these games. The highest-ranked team affected was Utah, who fell one spot behind #28 Cincinnati to #29. Neither team actually played Army or Navy, but they were so closely scored that the subtle shifts in their opponents strengths caused them to swap.

Next up was Air Force, who played both Army and Navy, and jumped up one place to #31 over #32 USC. Georgia Southern got a direct boost from the Navy win, and moved up 1 spot to #39, moving Toledo to #40.

Notre Dame also benefited from the Navy win, moving from #46 up to a tie for #44, and bumping North Carolina State down to #46.

Navy, of course, got the biggest boost, from #70 to #54. As far as relative ordering, a few pairs of the teams they passed swapped places too, including Western Kentucky and Tennessee at #55-56, North Carolina and Arkansas at #57-58, and Houston and Texas at #69-70.

Army interestingly stayed right at #101. They did lose 7 spots in my overall rankings of all 720 teams, but the teams they fell behind were all FCS or below.

Finally, Louisiana-Monroe wrested the #107 spot from Southern Miss, who falls to #108.

I'll probably post weekly updates of these rankings throughout the bowl season, but it's practically a lock my #1 team at the end will be the winner of the playoff, because the strength of 2 victories over 2 top 4 teams should lift any of the 4 of them to the top.

1Florida State13-0
2Alabama12-1
3Ohio State12-1
4Oregon12-1
5Boise State11-2
6TCU11-1
7Marshall12-1
8Baylor11-1
9Georgia Tech10-3
10Missouri10-3
11Wisconsin10-3
12Mississippi State10-2
13Michigan State10-2
14Arizona10-3
15Ole Miss9-3
16Northern Illinois11-2
17UCLA9-3
18Georgia9-3
19Colorado State10-2
20Clemson9-3
21Kansas State9-3
22Nebraska9-3
23Arizona State9-3
24Auburn8-4
25Louisville9-3
26LSU8-4
27Utah State9-4
28Cincinnati9-3
29Utah8-4
30UCF9-3
31Air Force9-3
32USC8-4
33Minnesota8-4
34Duke9-3
35Memphis9-3
36Oklahoma8-4
37Louisiana Tech8-5
38Washington8-5
39Georgia Southern9-3
40Toledo8-4
41BYU8-4
42Texas A&M7-5
43Louisiana-Lafayette8-4
44Maryland7-5
44Notre Dame7-5
46North Carolina State7-5
47Stanford7-5
48East Carolina8-4
49West Virginia7-5
50Boston College7-5
51Rutgers7-5
52Iowa7-5
53Western Michigan8-4
54Navy7-5
55Western Kentucky7-5
56Tennessee6-6
57North Carolina6-6
58Arkansas6-6
59Nevada7-5
60Miami (FL)6-6
61Florida6-5
62Illinois6-6
63Rice7-5
64Virginia Tech6-6
65South Carolina6-6
66UTEP7-5
67Central Michigan7-5
68Arkansas State7-5
69Houston7-5
70Texas6-6
71Oklahoma State6-6
72Bowling Green7-6
73Pittsburgh6-6
74Penn State6-6
75Appalachian State7-5
76Texas State7-5
77Virginia5-7
78Middle Tennessee6-6
79San Diego State6-5
80Fresno State6-7
81Old Dominion6-6
82UAB6-6
83Northwestern5-7
84Kentucky5-7
85Michigan5-7
86California5-7
87Temple6-6
88South Alabama6-6
89Ohio6-6
90Oregon State5-7
91Ball State5-7
92Indiana4-8
93Texas Tech4-8
94Wyoming4-8
95Buffalo5-6
96South Florida4-8
97New Mexico4-8
98Florida International4-8
99Akron5-7
100Syracuse3-9
101Army4-8
102Purdue3-9
103Washington State3-9
104UTSA4-8
105Hawaii4-9
106Vanderbilt3-9
107Louisiana-Monroe4-8
108Southern Miss3-9
109Kansas3-9
110Tulane3-9
111Wake Forest3-9
112San Jose State3-7
113North Texas4-8
114Iowa State2-10
115Florida Atlantic3-9
116Colorado2-10
117Troy3-9
118Eastern Michigan2-10
119UNLV2-11
120Connecticut2-10
121Massachusetts3-9
122Miami (OH)2-10
123Kent State2-9
124Tulsa2-10
125New Mexico State2-10
126SMU1-11
127Georgia State1-11
128Idaho1-10


2014 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 LSU
Week 3 Oklahoma
Week 4 North Carolina State
Week 5 Nebraska
Week 6 Auburn
Week 7 Mississippi State
Week 8 Florida State
Week 9 Mississippi State
Week 10 Mississippi State
Week 11 Mississippi State
Week 12 Florida State
Week 13 Florida State
Week 14 Florida State
Week 15 Florida State

2014-12-12

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 15, Thursday

New England over Green Bay

I hereby demand simulation of ties next year!

Right now I show Arizona having clinched a playoff berth. But, they don't truly clinch until Dallas and Philadelphia end in a non-tie, or some other combination of results this weekend. The odds of a tie are small, so I'll go ahead and say they've clinched. The Rams loss eliminated them, as well as Minnesota, because Minnesota's path to the playoffs involved getting into specific ties involving 3 or more teams at 9-7, including the Rams, who they beat head to head.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE10-30.70598.66499.48195.57557.08133.18118.919
BAL8-50.68834.74665.75039.73520.66211.2686.205
GB10-30.68669.41098.68687.45751.59829.49115.648
SEA9-40.67937.16083.42165.86737.50920.56810.739
IND9-40.66296.67897.77061.80231.67616.1028.403
PHI9-40.63574.01179.42945.19122.01511.1055.264
DEN10-30.63299.50399.96895.40648.50122.14910.841
MIA7-60.6121.02416.2397.7063.4631.5780.739
HOU7-60.6123.32221.72610.8294.7302.1901.025
BUF7-60.6120.3127.4433.5361.5760.7240.339
KC7-60.612-28.37413.8686.0172.7341.280
ARI11-30.60462.840+86.13340.87718.5448.202
DET9-40.60030.59083.84254.59925.47911.6275.093
DAL9-40.57925.98951.32827.18411.8565.2062.168
PIT8-50.57634.78462.10330.67912.3995.1292.215
SD8-50.5450.49737.99116.0115.8902.3020.924
CLE7-60.5134.3719.0583.6891.2460.4510.168
STL6-80.487------
SF7-60.485-3.2941.3110.4520.1630.054
CIN8-4-10.48326.10054.09821.1646.7602.1930.754
ATL5-80.47549.02849.02816.6995.5411.8620.596
MIN6-70.460------
NO5-80.45439.45939.45912.7384.0021.2740.387
NYG4-90.436------
CAR4-8-10.36111.51311.5132.8210.6700.1610.037
CHI5-80.330------
WAS3-100.305------
TB2-110.289------
NYJ2-110.246------
TEN2-110.231------
OAK2-110.222------
JAC2-110.215------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]

2014-12-09

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 14, Final

New England over Green Bay

Green Bay beat Atlanta as expected, though maybe not by quite the margin expected. As a result, they hang on to the NFC favorite position. Meanwhile, the NFC South is now led by 2 5-8 teams, and in 3rd there is a 4-8-1 team with an over 11% chance of winning the division. Atlanta and New Orleans still have one head to head game, so the division winner could be as bad as 5-10-1, or 6-10 barring more ties.

I neglected to mention it (or notice it) yesterday, but Denver is the first team to breach the 99.9% mark for chance of making the playoffs. They could clinch the division this week, and allow me to dispense with the silly tracking of 99.99%, etc.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE10-30.70598.66699.48195.57857.08633.18618.969
BAL8-50.68834.76165.76639.74820.66911.2736.224
GB10-30.68669.41298.71387.79652.42830.06115.951
SEA9-40.67948.88684.37567.80939.25621.60611.281
IND9-40.66296.68297.76261.80031.67816.1038.427
PHI9-40.63574.01979.86147.86323.62311.9275.653
DEN10-30.63299.50499.96895.38448.48722.14210.872
MIA7-60.6121.02216.2387.7043.4621.5770.741
HOU7-60.6123.31821.72410.8294.7292.1901.029
BUF7-60.6120.3117.4413.5351.5750.7230.341
KC7-60.612-28.38013.8706.0162.7331.284
DET9-40.60030.58883.77054.98025.61811.8095.172
ARI10-30.58751.11496.95977.30935.02115.2766.483
DAL9-40.57925.98152.42229.34412.9455.7092.377
PIT8-50.57634.78362.10430.70312.4085.1312.224
SD8-50.5450.49637.99516.0095.8892.3000.927
CLE7-60.5134.3709.0563.6881.2450.4500.168
STL6-70.500-0.0770.0290.0100.0040.001
SF7-60.485-3.8161.5250.5220.1890.062
CIN8-4-10.48326.08654.08521.1516.7552.1900.757
ATL5-80.47549.02949.02917.2465.7331.9290.617
MIN6-70.460-0.0060.0020.0010.0000.000
NO5-80.45439.46439.46413.1714.1461.3210.401
NYG4-90.435------
CAR4-8-10.36111.50711.5072.9260.6960.1680.038
CHI5-80.330------
WAS3-100.305------
TB2-110.289------
NYJ2-110.246------
TEN2-110.231------
OAK2-110.221------
JAC2-110.214------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]

2014-12-08

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 14, Sunday

New England over Green Bay

The projections has been the same for weeks, so let's see what's going on with other teams.

The Rams have now won 2 consecutive games as shutouts. Nevermind that the teams are a combined 5-21. They were also eliminated from winning the NFC West yesterday, since Arizona now has 10 wins and they've got 7 losses.

Baltimore has climbed back up to be the second strongest team, even though their record places them a bit lower. Look out for them to outplay their playoff seed if they make it out of the highly successful AFC North.

Kansas City and San Francisco were also eliminated from their divisions, but via tiebreakers. Chicago was eliminated from the playoffs completely after falling to a near-0 chance with their Thursday loss.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE10-30.70598.65999.47895.58657.08333.18119.081
BAL8-50.68834.97265.83239.79620.69411.2856.270
GB9-30.68261.91995.00481.06047.74227.17114.279
SEA9-40.67948.87685.49969.01040.15122.32511.658
IND9-40.66296.67997.76261.80831.68116.1048.484
PHI9-40.63574.00880.23849.30924.65612.5375.943
DEN10-30.63299.50399.96895.37148.47622.13610.946
MIA7-60.6121.02516.2847.7263.4731.5820.749
HOU7-60.6123.32121.72210.8304.7322.1911.037
BUF7-60.6120.3167.5413.5831.5960.7330.348
KC7-60.612-28.38613.8666.0152.7341.293
DET9-40.60038.08184.07256.65526.82012.4295.445
ARI10-30.58751.12497.18377.43635.11215.4956.575
DAL9-40.57925.99253.92630.53213.5866.0392.516
PIT8-50.57634.46361.74730.51812.3355.1022.228
SD8-50.5450.49738.03916.0315.8972.3040.936
CLE7-60.5134.4069.0663.6961.2480.4520.170
STL6-70.500-0.0890.0340.0120.0050.002
SF7-60.485-3.9841.5980.5610.2040.067
ATL5-70.48557.81857.81820.9817.2822.5320.833
CIN8-4-10.48326.16054.17521.1906.7702.1980.767
MIN6-70.460-0.0060.0020.0010.0000.000
NO5-80.45432.80232.80210.9883.4991.1220.340
NYG4-90.436------
CAR4-8-10.3619.3809.3802.3960.5770.1400.032
CHI5-80.330------
WAS3-100.305------
TB2-110.289------
NYJ2-110.246------
TEN2-110.231------
OAK2-110.222------
JAC2-110.215------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]

2014-12-07

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 15

Imagine my surprise to find that I completely agree with the College Football Playoff committee.

Perhaps my agreement is not complete, but in the end the bracket is the same, and since the games are at neutral sites, that's almost all that matters. I have #1 Florida State vs #4 Oregon, whereas the CFP has Oregon at #2 and Florida State #3. The game is in Pasadena, which is closer to Oregon, but probably far enough to be any actual advantage. The other game, Ohio State "at" Alabama in New Orleans is just as the CFP set it up, just with different seeds. I'm not sure if rearranged seeding would have affected the locations of the games, though I could see an argument that the #1 team should get the location closest to home (Florida State in New Orleans in my rankings), and the rest fall into place from there.

So, why did TCU lose its Top 4 spot despite a convincing win? I would argue they never should have been up at #3 in the first place, and in fact I had them 11th last week. However, I do have them ranked higher than Baylor, which was a point of contention for the last few weeks among the pundits. I think the committee dodged most controversy by leaving out the Big 12, though they could have dodged it even better by not putting TCU so high last week.

If Missouri had beaten Alabama, and all other games stayed the same, I would have had them 5th, and the top 4 would have been the same, though Alabama would have fallen to #4. I honestly don't think the committee could have gotten away with choosing a conference non-champion without the champ, though, and both Alabama and Missouri would have been left out. As it is, Missouri fell to a respectable 10th in my ranks, and 16 by the committee. Although, I'm not sure if they care about much after #4.

Finally, congrats to SMU for avoiding the perfect 0-12 season. They even climbed out the cellar up to #126. The bottom team, which should stay there despite any bowl results, is now Idaho, though they're being somewhat punished for only playing 11 games. Them's the breaks, I say.

1Florida State13-0
2Alabama12-1
3Ohio State12-1
4Oregon12-1
5Boise State11-2
6TCU11-1
7Marshall12-1
8Baylor11-1
9Georgia Tech10-3
10Missouri10-3
11Wisconsin10-3
12Mississippi State10-2
13Michigan State10-2
14Arizona10-3
15Ole Miss9-3
16Northern Illinois11-2
17UCLA9-3
18Georgia9-3
19Colorado State10-2
20Clemson9-3
21Kansas State9-3
22Nebraska9-3
23Arizona State9-3
24Auburn8-4
25Louisville9-3
26LSU8-4
27Utah State9-4
28Utah8-4
29Cincinnati9-3
30UCF9-3
31USC8-4
32Air Force9-3
33Minnesota8-4
34Duke9-3
35Memphis9-3
36Oklahoma8-4
37Louisiana Tech8-5
38Washington8-5
39Toledo8-4
40Georgia Southern9-3
41BYU8-4
42Texas A&M7-5
43Louisiana-Lafayette8-4
44Maryland7-5
45North Carolina State7-5
46Notre Dame7-5
47Stanford7-5
48East Carolina8-4
49West Virginia7-5
50Boston College7-5
51Rutgers7-5
52Iowa7-5
53Western Michigan8-4
54Tennessee6-6
55Western Kentucky7-5
56Arkansas6-6
57North Carolina6-6
58Nevada7-5
59Miami (FL)6-6
60Florida6-5
61Illinois6-6
62Rice7-5
63Virginia Tech6-6
64South Carolina6-6
65UTEP7-5
66Central Michigan7-5
67Arkansas State7-5
68Texas6-6
69Houston7-5
70Navy6-5
71Oklahoma State6-6
72Bowling Green7-6
73Pittsburgh6-6
74Penn State6-6
75Appalachian State7-5
76Texas State7-5
77Virginia5-7
78Middle Tennessee6-6
79San Diego State6-5
80Fresno State6-7
81Old Dominion6-6
82UAB6-6
83Northwestern5-7
84Kentucky5-7
85Michigan5-7
86California5-7
87Temple6-6
88South Alabama6-6
89Ohio6-6
90Oregon State5-7
91Ball State5-7
92Indiana4-8
93Texas Tech4-8
94Wyoming4-8
95Buffalo5-6
96South Florida4-8
97New Mexico4-8
98Florida International4-8
99Akron5-7
100Syracuse3-9
101Army4-7
102Purdue3-9
103Washington State3-9
104UTSA4-8
105Hawaii4-9
106Vanderbilt3-9
107Southern Miss3-9
108Louisiana-Monroe4-8
109Kansas3-9
110Tulane3-9
111Wake Forest3-9
112San Jose State3-7
113North Texas4-8
114Iowa State2-10
115Florida Atlantic3-9
116Colorado2-10
117Troy3-9
118Eastern Michigan2-10
119UNLV2-11
120Connecticut2-10
121Massachusetts3-9
122Miami (OH)2-10
123Kent State2-9
124Tulsa2-10
125New Mexico State2-10
126SMU1-11
127Georgia State1-11
128Idaho1-10


2014 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 LSU
Week 3 Oklahoma
Week 4 North Carolina State
Week 5 Nebraska
Week 6 Auburn
Week 7 Mississippi State
Week 8 Florida State
Week 9 Mississippi State
Week 10 Mississippi State
Week 11 Mississippi State
Week 12 Florida State
Week 13 Florida State
Week 14 Florida State