2020-11-20

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Pittsburgh over New Orleans

I had Arizona slightly favored for Thursday (ignoring homefield advantage... I should really implement that), but they lost by 7 to Seattle, and the NFC West flipped from 43-21 Arizona, to 39-22 Seattle. 

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PIT9-00.67190.6899.8486.4251.0628.1216.66
KC8-10.66888.8399.3972.1441.7722.4913.23
NO7-20.60076.0498.1469.6737.3819.599.02
TB7-30.62323.7089.9759.5833.0418.218.82
GB7-20.58989.2395.9165.0834.2617.447.83
BAL6-30.6518.5286.3049.5125.6513.527.72
LAR6-30.60438.1985.5952.8528.3314.946.94
MIA6-30.62953.1983.0847.5423.3811.566.32
IND6-30.62666.0579.2043.2321.2310.445.67
SEA7-30.54939.2191.8953.5125.1611.654.77
ARI6-40.58821.8169.7137.9919.459.894.43
BUF7-30.51345.0277.2231.8011.764.411.89
LV6-30.52411.1662.6726.4910.083.921.73
TEN6-30.52533.8161.9025.869.893.851.70
PHI3-5-10.44357.7157.7320.627.442.690.84
MIN4-50.4803.2522.999.493.801.530.53
CLE6-30.4480.8041.0813.904.231.380.51
CHI5-50.4576.7626.5710.193.861.460.48
SF4-60.5080.797.713.341.410.610.23
NYG3-70.41119.8719.926.502.150.710.20
WAS2-70.41912.9813.014.351.470.500.15
DET4-50.4310.769.383.401.200.430.13
NE4-50.4531.798.332.810.860.290.11
DAL2-70.3619.449.462.670.760.220.05
ATL3-60.4860.261.200.480.200.080.03
CAR3-70.4270.000.820.280.100.030.01
LAC2-70.4650.000.320.110.030.010.00
DEN3-60.3750.010.350.090.020.010.00
HOU2-70.4040.140.200.060.020.000.00
CIN2-6-10.4150.000.130.040.010.000.00
JAC1-80.3760.000.000.000.000.000.00
NYJ0-90.264-0.000.00---

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans

2020-11-17

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 10, Final

Pittsburgh over New Orleans

Minnesota beat Chicago Monday night, but as each teams had (and still has) a strength below .500, my Super Bowl projection was unaffected. Green Bay got a 5 point boost in their division chances (84.5% to 89.2%), but their overall playoff chances went up less than 1 point, so New Orleans remains the NFC favorite.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PIT9-00.67190.6899.8486.4151.0528.1216.60
KC8-10.66888.8499.3972.1441.7722.4913.19
NO7-20.60076.0498.0970.1837.5619.599.02
TB7-30.62323.7089.7959.5032.8618.048.74
GB7-20.58989.2395.7665.5234.4017.427.83
BAL6-30.6518.5286.3149.5125.6613.527.69
LAR6-30.60435.4186.6453.2928.3914.926.93
MIA6-30.62953.2183.1647.5923.4111.586.31
ARI6-30.59842.6483.2148.8025.7013.326.11
IND6-30.62666.0579.2043.2321.2310.445.65
SEA6-30.53721.2680.4642.6219.328.693.47
BUF7-30.51345.0277.1931.7911.754.411.88
LV6-30.52411.1662.7026.5010.083.921.72
TEN6-30.52533.8161.9125.859.893.851.69
PHI3-5-10.44357.6457.6720.547.372.650.83
CLE6-30.4480.8041.0713.904.231.380.50
MIN4-50.4803.2520.968.673.461.390.48
CHI5-50.4576.7526.059.963.751.420.46
SF4-60.5080.687.743.331.400.610.22
NYG3-70.41119.8419.896.472.130.700.20
WAS2-70.41913.1013.144.381.470.500.15
DET4-50.4310.779.183.321.160.410.13
NE4-50.4531.778.232.780.850.280.11
DAL2-70.3619.419.422.650.750.220.05
ATL3-60.4860.261.200.480.200.080.03
CAR3-70.4270.000.800.270.090.030.01
LAC2-70.4650.000.320.110.030.010.00
DEN3-60.3750.010.350.090.020.010.00
HOU2-70.4040.140.200.060.020.000.00
CIN2-6-10.4150.000.130.040.010.000.00
JAC1-80.3760.000.000.000.000.000.00
NYJ0-90.264-0.000.00---

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans

2020-11-16

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 10, Sunday

Pittsburgh over New Orleans

Neither of the conference leaders lost, yet we have a whole new matchup after Sunday's games. Kansas City had a bye week, which is almost as good as a loss when the team behind you wins. Pittsburgh, at 9-0, is the AFC favorite for the first time this year. Green Bay and New Orleans both started 6-2 and won to rise to 7-2, but New Orleans managed to win by a few more points to move ahead. We're still talking about very small differences of course, 19.7% to 17.3%. Tampa also won and by an even larger margin, bringing their NFC chances up to almost 18%.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PIT9-00.67290.6899.8486.4251.0628.1216.62
KC8-10.66888.8499.3972.1441.7722.4913.20
NO7-20.60076.0798.0670.3637.6919.709.07
TB7-30.62323.6889.0659.0532.6717.968.70
GB7-20.58984.5495.0865.0034.1617.327.78
BAL6-30.6518.5286.3249.5225.6613.527.70
LAR6-30.60435.4385.3252.6428.0914.796.87
MIA6-30.62953.2283.1747.6023.4211.586.31
ARI6-30.59842.6481.9248.0625.3513.166.04
IND6-30.62666.0679.2143.2321.2310.445.66
SEA6-30.53721.2577.3841.1518.718.433.36
BUF7-30.51345.0177.1931.7811.754.411.88
LV6-30.52411.1562.7026.5010.083.921.72
TEN6-30.52533.8061.9025.859.883.841.69
CHI5-40.47213.1843.9318.017.052.750.93
PHI3-5-10.44357.5957.6120.597.402.670.84
CLE6-30.4480.8041.0613.894.231.370.50
MIN3-50.4711.6411.964.811.880.740.25
SF4-60.5080.687.113.071.300.560.21
NYG3-70.41119.8219.866.492.140.710.20
WAS2-70.41913.1013.134.391.480.500.15
DET4-50.4310.648.423.061.070.380.12
NE4-50.4531.778.222.770.850.280.11
DAL2-70.3619.499.502.690.770.220.05
ATL3-60.4860.251.020.410.170.070.02
CAR3-70.4270.000.640.220.070.030.01
LAC2-70.4650.000.320.110.030.010.00
DEN3-60.3750.010.350.090.020.010.00
HOU2-70.4040.140.190.060.020.000.00
CIN2-6-10.4150.000.130.040.010.000.00
JAC1-80.3760.000.000.000.000.000.00
NYJ0-90.264-0.000.000.000.00-

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay

2020-11-15

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 11

Arizona, Washington, and California joined the ranks of the active this week, leaving 4 teams who have yet to take the field. 

PAC-12: Utah
Independents: UConn, New Mexico State
C-USA: Old Dominion

Utah was scheduled to play but got postponed this weekend, while UConn, New Mexico State, and Old Dominion have all previously announced they are out for the year, so really Utah is the only team left to start up. 

BYU survived their bye week and stays #1, tied at 8-0 with #2 Notre Dame. #10 Liberty is also 8-0, but needs some strength of schedule boosts to rise up to the top. The playoff is going to be weird this year - not as weird as it would be if they took my rankings, but weird.

Missouri had the week off again, but still dropped 12 spots, falling to #69.

#126 Vanderbilt lost to fall to 0-6 and holds onto last place.

1BYU8-0
2Notre Dame8-0
3Miami7-1
4Louisiana7-1
5Marshall7-0
6Coastal Carolina7-0
7Clemson7-1
8SMU7-2
9Cincinnati7-0
10Liberty8-0
11Alabama6-0
12North Carolina6-2
13Appalachian State6-1
14Oklahoma State5-1
15Georgia Southern6-2
16NC State5-3
17Florida5-1
18Texas5-2
19UTSA5-4
20Iowa State5-2
T-21Texas A&M5-1
T-21Army6-2
23UCF5-2
24Oklahoma5-2
25Boston College5-4
26West Virginia5-3
27UAB4-3
28Tulane5-4
29Georgia4-2
30Virginia Tech4-4
31Florida Atlantic4-1
32Tulsa4-1
33Louisiana Tech4-3
34Northwestern4-0
35Memphis4-2
36Wake Forest4-3
37Kansas State4-3
38Auburn4-2
39Troy4-3
40San Jose State4-0
41Pittsburgh4-4
42Indiana4-0
43Arkansas State3-5
44Virginia3-4
45Nevada4-0
46Houston3-3
47TCU3-4
48Arkansas3-4
49Boise State3-1
50Georgia State3-4
51Ohio State3-0
52Texas Tech3-5
53Navy3-4
54San Diego State3-1
55Ole Miss3-4
56UTEP3-4
57South Alabama3-5
58Western Kentucky3-6
59Fresno State3-1
60Kentucky3-4
61Buffalo2-0
62Colorado2-0
63Central Michigan2-0
64Oregon2-0
65Purdue2-1
66Western Michigan2-0
67Wisconsin2-0
68USC2-0
69Missouri2-3
70Charlotte2-3
71Kent State2-0
72Florida State2-6
73Duke2-6
74Tennessee2-4
75Maryland2-1
76Georgia Tech2-5
77Louisville2-6
78Iowa2-2
79Hawai'i2-2
80Mississippi State2-4
81North Texas2-3
82LSU2-3
83Air Force1-2
84South Carolina2-5
85Washington1-0
86Middle Tennessee2-6
87Miami (OH)1-1
88UCLA1-1
89Rice1-1
90Southern Mississippi2-6
91Ohio1-1
92Toledo1-1
93Washington State1-1
94Colorado State1-2
95Wyoming1-2
96Nebraska1-2
97Ball State1-1
98Syracuse1-7
99Temple1-5
100Baylor1-5
101Texas State1-9
102UMass0-2
103East Carolina1-6
104Rutgers1-3
105Michigan1-3
106Michigan State1-3
T-107Arizona State0-1
T-107Arizona0-1
109Illinois1-3
T-110Minnesota1-3
T-110California0-1
112Northern Illinois0-2
113Stanford0-2
114New Mexico0-3
115Akron0-2
116Bowling Green0-2
117Eastern Michigan0-2
118South Florida1-7
119UNLV0-4
120Florida International0-4
121Oregon State0-2
122Utah State0-4
123Kansas0-7
124Penn State0-4
125UL Monroe0-8
126Vanderbilt0-6


2020 History and #1s
Week 1 UAB
Week 2 Army
Week 3 Miami
Week 4 Miami
Week 5 SMU
Week 6 BYU
Week 7 BYU
Week 8 BYU
Week 9 BYU
Week 10 BYU

2020-11-13

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 10, Thursday

Kansas City over Green Bay

We had another Thursday night division game, with Indianapolis beating Tennessee. Both teams are now 6-3, with Indianapolis about twice as likely to win the division, and the other two - Houston and Jacksonville - pretty unlikely to make a run at it.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC8-10.66894.3199.5276.9645.3525.3915.40
PIT8-00.63173.8999.3976.2941.5421.0511.95
BAL6-20.65525.1495.0859.4932.8317.7810.54
GB6-20.58079.1592.9362.7933.3917.387.87
NO6-20.57470.7892.9460.7431.8016.357.30
IND6-30.62666.9083.0245.6323.0311.696.57
ARI5-30.59632.6176.5446.9225.5413.766.45
TB6-30.58728.0579.4048.6025.8513.656.28
LAR5-30.58824.6773.5645.2124.1512.805.89
MIA5-30.61535.7176.1342.0020.3010.045.53
SEA6-20.54640.4786.9454.5326.5312.755.34
BUF7-20.51663.4587.3238.0114.695.722.58
TEN6-30.52532.6766.7928.1411.094.452.05
PHI3-4-10.46372.2172.2928.9011.434.521.54
CHI5-40.47217.4148.9821.238.713.551.24
SF4-50.5362.2620.3310.064.762.270.93
LV5-30.4815.5544.7317.096.002.170.90
CLE5-30.4470.9736.0912.463.951.310.50
MIN3-50.4712.8115.426.462.641.080.38
WAS2-60.42315.3715.635.612.000.720.22
CAR3-60.4680.294.291.780.720.300.10
DET3-50.4260.626.112.290.840.310.10
NYG2-70.3916.916.932.290.750.250.07
ATL3-60.4860.882.150.910.390.170.06
NE3-50.4410.844.521.500.470.160.06
DAL2-70.3615.525.551.670.500.150.04
LAC2-60.4800.031.920.690.240.090.04
DEN3-50.4180.112.960.900.260.080.03
CIN2-5-10.4620.001.390.490.160.060.02
HOU2-60.4160.421.110.340.100.030.01
JAC1-70.3850.010.020.010.000.000.00
NYJ0-90.263-0.000.00---

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay

2020-11-10

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 9, Final

Kansas City over Green Bay

Generally this is where I mention that a game between 2 bad teams doesn't really change anything. This week's teams were a combined 2-13, but with New England defeating the New York Jets, they're officially eliminated from winning the AFC East. They're not out of the playoffs entirely (especially if the NFL renders all my numbers moot by adding an 8th team in each conference), and therefore it's not impossible for them to win the Super Bowl just yet, although they never did in my 2 billion simulations this time.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC8-10.66894.1499.5476.5345.4025.6115.54
PIT8-00.63174.7899.3877.0042.2121.5512.24
BAL6-20.65524.2995.3060.0533.3118.1510.76
GB6-20.58079.1892.9462.8233.4117.397.93
NO6-20.57470.7892.9460.7331.7916.347.36
ARI5-30.59632.6176.5846.9425.5513.776.50
TB6-30.58728.0579.4348.6125.8613.656.33
LAR5-30.58824.6773.5845.2124.1512.805.94
MIA5-30.61535.7277.1742.5620.7510.345.69
SEA6-20.54640.4786.9654.5326.5312.755.38
IND5-30.59638.4763.4732.0315.047.183.82
TEN6-20.55461.1482.2539.0916.747.223.53
BUF7-20.51663.4588.2038.1314.915.852.64
PHI3-4-10.46372.2072.2928.9011.434.521.56
CHI5-40.47217.4149.0021.248.723.561.25
LV5-30.4815.7245.7217.686.252.280.95
SF4-50.5362.2620.3510.074.762.270.93
CLE5-30.4470.9236.3812.744.071.370.52
MIN3-50.4712.8215.446.472.641.080.38
WAS2-60.42315.3715.635.612.000.710.22
CAR3-60.4680.294.291.780.720.300.10
DET3-50.4260.595.922.220.810.300.09
NYG2-70.3916.916.932.290.750.250.07
NE3-50.4410.844.671.570.490.170.06
ATL3-60.4860.882.160.910.390.170.06
LAC2-60.4800.031.980.720.250.090.04
DAL2-70.3615.525.551.670.500.150.04
DEN3-50.4180.113.271.020.300.090.03
CIN2-5-10.4620.001.440.510.170.060.02
HOU2-60.4160.381.210.370.110.030.01
JAC1-70.3850.010.020.010.000.000.00
NYJ0-90.263-0.000.000.00--

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay

2020-11-09

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 9, Sunday

Kansas City over Green Bay

Tampa Bay lost by a huge margin to New Orleans, completely tanking their strength, as well as their division chances, thanks to the tiebreaking implications. Green Bay takes over as the NFC favorite, but there are 3 very strong AFC teams with a better chance to win. In the NFC the wealth is spread around a bit more, with teams 4-8 all being from the NFC.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC8-10.66894.2099.5576.5045.3625.5815.52
PIT8-00.63174.7699.3976.9842.1721.5312.23
BAL6-20.65524.3295.4460.1233.3518.1710.77
GB6-20.58079.1892.9562.8533.4217.407.93
NO6-20.57470.7892.9460.7431.8016.347.36
ARI5-30.59632.8876.7447.0625.6113.806.51
TB6-30.58728.0579.4348.6225.8613.666.33
LAR5-30.58824.6573.5145.1724.1212.785.93
MIA5-30.61535.6077.4942.7120.8210.385.71
SEA6-20.54640.2086.8054.3826.4512.715.36
IND5-30.59638.4863.7732.1615.107.213.83
TEN6-20.55461.1382.4239.1316.767.233.53
BUF7-20.51663.8588.6038.2914.975.882.65
PHI3-4-10.46372.2072.2928.9011.434.521.56
CHI5-40.47217.4149.0221.258.723.561.25
LV5-30.4815.6645.8017.706.262.280.95
SF4-50.5362.2720.3710.084.772.270.94
CLE5-30.4470.9136.3812.734.071.360.52
MIN3-50.4712.8215.446.472.641.080.38
WAS2-60.42315.3715.635.612.000.720.22
CAR3-60.4680.294.301.780.720.300.10
DET3-50.4260.595.932.220.810.300.09
NYG2-70.3916.916.932.290.750.250.07
ATL3-60.4860.882.160.920.390.170.06
LAC2-60.4800.032.000.730.250.090.04
DAL2-70.3615.525.551.670.500.150.04
NE2-50.4330.543.101.020.310.100.04
DEN3-50.4180.113.321.030.300.100.03
CIN2-5-10.4620.001.470.520.170.060.02
HOU2-60.4160.391.250.380.110.040.01
JAC1-70.3850.010.020.010.000.000.00
NYJ0-80.2770.000.000.000.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay

2020-11-08

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 10

It's week 10 and we're still having teams join the season. 20 new teams played this week, bringing the total to 123 of a possible 130. The teams who have not played are as follows:

PAC-12: Arizona, California, Utah, Washington
Independents: UConn, New Mexico State
C-USA: Old Dominion

BYU won again and is the only 8-0 team, with #2 Clemson losing to #3 Notre Dame. I only caught the overtime of that game, and really nothing else the rest of the day. I'm still not sure if I like college's overtime format. It's going to be harder than ever to justify leaving out a non-Power-5 team this year if BYU keeps winning. They've only got 2 games left, one against FCS punching bag North Alabama, and one against #69 San Diego State. They'll have next week off, the FCS game, then 2 more weeks off.

Missouri had the week off but gained 4 spots to reach #57.

Weird stuff is going on at the bottom of the chart, where #122 UL Monroe to fall to 0-8 but #123 Vanderbilt passed them with a loss to fall to merely 0-5.

1BYU8-0
2Clemson7-1
3Notre Dame7-0
4Coastal Carolina7-0
5SMU7-1
6Miami6-1
7Louisiana6-1
8Alabama6-0
9Marshall6-0
10Cincinnati6-0
11Liberty7-0
12Oklahoma State5-1
13Texas5-2
14North Carolina5-2
15Texas A&M5-1
16Iowa State5-2
17Army6-1
18Boston College5-3
19Oklahoma5-2
20Georgia Southern5-2
21Appalachian State5-1
22Virginia Tech4-3
23NC State4-3
24Georgia4-2
25Florida4-1
26UAB4-3
27Louisiana Tech4-3
28Wake Forest4-2
29Memphis4-2
30UCF4-2
31UTSA4-4
32Kansas State4-3
33Auburn4-2
34Troy4-3
35Pittsburgh4-4
36West Virginia4-3
37Florida Atlantic3-1
38Tulane4-4
39Arkansas State3-5
40TCU3-3
41Arkansas3-3
42Tulsa3-1
43Northwestern3-0
44San Jose State3-0
45Georgia State3-3
46Indiana3-0
47Ohio State3-0
48UTEP3-3
49Nevada3-0
50Navy3-4
51Houston2-3
52Virginia2-4
53South Alabama3-4
54Florida State2-5
55Boise State2-1
56Charlotte2-3
57Missouri2-3
58Purdue2-0
59Texas Tech2-5
60Louisville2-5
61Georgia Tech2-5
62Tennessee2-4
63Duke2-6
64Maryland2-1
65Hawai'i2-1
66Fresno State2-1
67Ole Miss2-4
68Kentucky2-4
69San Diego State2-1
70Western Kentucky2-6
71Mississippi State2-4
T-72South Carolina2-4
T-72North Texas2-3
74LSU2-3
T-75Kent State1-0
T-75Western Michigan1-0
T-75Buffalo1-0
T-75Central Michigan1-0
T-75Miami (OH)1-0
T-75Toledo1-0
T-75Oregon1-0
T-75USC1-0
T-75Colorado1-0
T-75Washington State1-0
85Southern Mississippi2-5
86Wisconsin1-0
87Air Force1-2
88Colorado State1-1
89Middle Tennessee2-5
90Rice1-1
91Rutgers1-2
92Wyoming1-2
93Iowa1-2
94Syracuse1-7
95Baylor1-4
96Temple1-4
97Michigan1-2
98Texas State1-8
99Michigan State1-2
100Minnesota1-2
101UMass0-2
102East Carolina1-5
T-103Eastern Michigan0-1
T-103Akron0-1
T-103Northern Illinois0-1
T-103Ohio0-1
T-103Ball State0-1
T-103Bowling Green0-1
T-103Stanford0-1
T-103Arizona State0-1
T-103UCLA0-1
T-103Oregon State0-1
113Nebraska0-2
114New Mexico0-2
115South Florida1-6
116Penn State0-3
117Florida International0-3
118Utah State0-3
119UNLV0-3
120Kansas0-7
121Illinois0-3
122UL Monroe0-8
123Vanderbilt0-5


2020 History and #1s
Week 1 UAB
Week 2 Army
Week 3 Miami
Week 4 Miami
Week 5 SMU
Week 6 BYU
Week 7 BYU
Week 8 BYU
Week 9 BYU

2020-11-06

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 9, Thursday

Kansas City over Tampa Bay

Green Bay beat San Francisco on Thursday night to move up to 6-2, but are still quite a bit behind 6-2 Tampa Bay. They've got a worse point differential, which, after cascading through all the playoff rounds, lowers their winning chances by quite a bit by comparison. They're still 15% likely to make the Super Bowl, though.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC7-10.66494.0399.1676.2345.5126.0615.39
TB6-20.63868.8891.7866.1239.3822.9812.09
PIT7-00.61977.9199.1776.4941.7721.1511.48
BAL5-20.62720.1788.9152.7327.8314.528.01
ARI5-20.60234.8881.4052.0828.3715.147.40
GB6-20.58071.2791.2357.7430.1315.277.11
SEA6-10.56147.5791.0761.2330.5614.826.62
IND5-20.61457.5981.7047.2324.0212.156.54
MIA4-30.61239.7371.8740.0719.9110.095.41
LAR5-30.58816.2668.6141.1121.4611.125.27
TEN5-20.54142.1375.0635.1214.926.392.96
NO5-20.51530.1272.4637.2916.547.262.92
BUF6-20.49858.8979.6133.8712.964.992.10
CHI5-30.48825.6358.7826.9911.274.661.76
PHI3-4-10.46364.7264.9625.8610.003.851.36
SF4-50.5361.2918.538.964.121.920.81
LV4-30.4724.8635.1713.504.821.770.70
CLE5-30.4471.9043.1215.525.141.760.66
WAS2-50.43024.6825.179.173.261.150.37
DET3-40.4502.0011.774.691.780.680.23
LAC2-50.4890.428.793.381.250.480.20
CAR3-50.4710.615.872.420.970.390.14
MIN2-50.4481.116.752.580.970.370.13
DEN3-40.4290.699.403.100.970.320.12
NE2-50.4331.374.551.550.490.170.06
DAL2-60.3737.447.512.330.710.210.06
CIN2-5-10.4630.022.440.880.300.110.04
NYG1-70.3873.163.171.030.330.100.03
ATL2-60.4730.390.950.380.160.060.02
HOU1-60.4150.220.830.260.080.030.01
JAC1-60.3910.060.220.070.020.010.00
NYJ0-80.2770.000.000.000.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay

2020-11-03

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 8, Final

Kansas City over Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay really struggled to beat the 1-6 Giants, but ultimately did so. In the standings, the win is what's most important, but in projecting future games, points really matter. They did improve their chances of reaching each round just a little bit. New Orleans' 5-2 record is really what's hindering Tampa Bay from being a near-lock for their division like Kansas City (second place Las Vegas is 2.5 games back, but with a head-to-head win) and Pittsburgh (second place Baltimore is 2 games back with 1 head-to-head loss)

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC7-10.66494.0399.1676.2045.4926.0515.45
TB6-20.63869.3091.5166.6339.9623.4712.35
PIT7-00.61977.9199.1776.4741.7521.1311.53
BAL5-20.62720.1788.8952.7027.8114.518.04
ARI5-20.60234.2180.5452.6328.8915.527.58
SEA6-10.56146.4690.3761.9731.0815.196.79
IND5-20.61457.5982.0547.5024.1612.226.61
MIA4-30.61240.3271.9340.0919.9210.095.44
LAR5-30.58815.4966.5640.6021.3511.135.27
GB5-20.55260.0978.2744.3021.7310.404.55
TEN5-20.54142.1475.4535.3215.006.433.00
NO5-20.51529.6670.2837.2116.657.352.96
SF4-40.5693.8436.8720.3110.145.082.31
BUF6-20.49858.2879.0133.5512.844.942.10
CHI5-30.48834.6559.7627.8711.754.881.84
PHI3-4-10.46365.7965.9926.1810.273.981.41
LV4-30.4724.8635.1313.474.811.770.71
CLE5-30.4471.9043.0415.485.131.760.66
WAS2-50.43023.9024.378.863.201.140.37
DET3-40.4503.2411.794.781.830.700.24
LAC2-50.4890.428.773.371.240.480.20
CAR3-50.4710.645.942.511.010.410.15
MIN2-50.4482.026.512.540.960.370.13
DEN3-40.4290.699.383.090.970.320.12
NE2-50.4331.404.551.550.490.170.06
DAL2-60.3737.177.232.240.690.210.06
CIN2-5-10.4630.022.430.880.300.110.04
NYG1-70.3873.143.151.020.330.100.03
ATL2-60.4730.400.860.350.150.060.02
HOU1-60.4150.210.820.260.080.020.01
JAC1-60.3910.060.230.070.020.010.00
NYJ0-80.2770.000.000.000.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay

2020-11-02

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 8, Sunday

Kansas City over Tampa Bay

Kansas City and Pittsburgh won their 7th game each, and are now both over 99% likely to make the playoffs. We're only a little under halfway done with the season, but remember that this year it will be even more important to be the #1 team instead of the #2 team in the conference, with only one first round bye available. I've still got the Jets with some chance of making the playoffs despite their terrible record and strength, but those days may be short, because as of this week's run it only happened about 75 in every 100 million runs.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC7-10.66494.0899.1675.8945.1525.8115.40
PIT7-00.61978.4399.2076.6741.7321.0911.59
TB5-20.63164.2187.3361.3436.3321.0410.89
BAL5-20.62719.7588.7852.3827.5714.368.01
ARI5-20.60234.1780.9453.5829.5416.017.81
SEA6-10.56146.3890.6363.0631.7315.666.99
IND5-20.61454.8381.2246.6223.6511.956.51
LAR5-30.58815.6067.2541.4321.9211.525.45
MIA4-30.61240.6272.1940.0519.8710.045.45
GB5-20.55260.0578.2744.8022.1310.684.67
TEN5-20.55644.9277.9637.8116.627.363.57
NO5-20.51534.4071.1437.7517.097.603.05
SF4-40.5693.8537.5520.8610.505.302.40
BUF6-20.49857.9978.9033.3012.714.882.09
CHI5-30.48834.6360.1528.3012.035.031.89
PHI3-4-10.46364.4464.6725.6810.163.971.40
LV4-30.4724.8234.9113.314.741.740.70
CLE5-30.4471.8042.1715.094.981.710.65
WAS2-50.43023.5924.088.763.191.150.37
DET3-40.4503.2612.024.921.900.740.25
LAC2-50.4890.428.693.331.220.470.20
CAR3-50.4710.826.152.621.070.440.16
MIN2-50.4482.076.722.641.010.390.13
DEN3-40.4290.689.353.060.960.320.12
NE2-50.4331.394.511.530.480.160.06
DAL2-60.3737.077.142.210.690.210.06
NYG1-60.3914.904.931.620.530.170.05
CIN2-5-10.4450.011.940.670.210.080.03
ATL2-60.4730.571.040.430.180.070.03
HOU1-60.4140.200.800.250.080.020.01
JAC1-60.3910.050.220.060.020.010.00
NYJ0-80.2770.000.000.000.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay

2020-11-01

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 9

We gained just 2 more teams this week, Colorado State and New Mexico.

Just like I said last week, BYU and Clemson won again. Clemson nearly came up short without their star QB, and as someone who typically roots for chaos, I was quite excited to see the score update come to my phone. Alas, they held on to win.

Missouri returned to form against Florida, losing 41-17, dropping them to #61.

UL Monroe lost again and remains in last place, now down at #103.

1BYU7-0
2Clemson7-0
3Alabama6-0
4SMU6-1
5Coastal Carolina6-0
6Notre Dame6-0
7Miami5-1
8Louisiana5-1
9Marshall5-0
10Cincinnati5-0
11Army6-1
12Liberty6-0
13NC State4-2
14Virginia Tech4-2
15UAB4-3
16Georgia4-1
17Oklahoma State4-1
18North Carolina4-2
19Wake Forest4-2
20Iowa State4-2
21Texas4-2
22Louisiana Tech4-3
23Oklahoma4-2
24Boston College4-3
25UTSA4-4
26Kansas State4-2
27UCF4-2
28Texas A&M4-1
29Troy4-2
30Appalachian State4-1
31Auburn4-2
32West Virginia4-2
33Georgia Southern4-2
34Memphis3-2
35Arkansas State3-4
36Florida3-1
37Tulsa3-1
38Pittsburgh3-4
39Florida Atlantic2-1
40UTEP3-3
41Tulane3-4
42Navy3-4
43Houston2-2
44Virginia2-4
45South Alabama3-3
46Georgia State2-3
47TCU2-3
48San Jose State2-0
49Indiana2-0
50Nevada2-0
51Boise State2-0
52Florida State2-4
53Northwestern2-0
54Texas Tech2-4
55Ohio State2-0
56Tennessee2-3
57San Diego State2-0
58Arkansas2-3
59Purdue2-0
60Charlotte2-3
61Missouri2-3
62Louisville2-5
63Duke2-5
64Georgia Tech2-5
65Western Kentucky2-5
66Ole Miss2-4
67South Carolina2-3
68Kentucky2-4
69North Texas2-3
70Wisconsin1-0
71LSU2-3
T-72Wyoming1-1
T-72Rutgers1-1
74Air Force1-2
75Middle Tennessee2-5
76Hawai'i1-1
77Michigan State1-1
78Maryland1-1
79Rice1-1
80Fresno State1-1
81Michigan1-1
82Syracuse1-6
83Baylor1-3
84Temple1-3
85Mississippi State1-4
86Texas State1-7
87East Carolina1-4
88Southern Mississippi1-5
89UMass0-1
90New Mexico0-1
91Nebraska0-1
92Colorado State0-1
93Penn State0-2
94UNLV0-2
95Utah State0-2
96Iowa0-2
97South Florida1-5
98Illinois0-2
99Florida International0-3
100Minnesota0-2
101Kansas0-6
102Vanderbilt0-4
103UL Monroe0-7


2020 History and #1s
Week 1 UAB
Week 2 Army
Week 3 Miami
Week 4 Miami
Week 5 SMU
Week 6 BYU
Week 7 BYU
Week 8 BYU