2018-12-09

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 15

There was only one FBS game this week, the annual Army-Navy game. Army won, and it had very little effect on the rankings. Army itself jumped from #18 up to #12, dangerously close to a playoff spot. One of these years we're going to have controversy over deciding the CFP before all the games are played. Other than that, a few teams just had subtle stregth of schedule changes that cause 2 adjacent teams to swap positions. That happened to Eastern Michigan, rising up to #60 over San Diego State because they played Army this year. That also apparently led Western Michigan to pass Vanderbilt up to #66, because they played Eastern Michigan. Vanderbilt also played Florida and Kentucky, who each lost a spot. And North Carolina, the team I mentioned was the lowest team to move last week, does it again this week, falling down to #119 back behind Western Kentucky

There were also 4 FCS quarterfinal games, 2 Division II semifinals, and 2 Division III semifinals, so those seasons are coming to a close.

Also, if you missed Week 14's post, it didn't take on Sunday for some reason, so I didn't actually publish it until Thursday. I kept Sunday's date on it, though.

1Clemson13-0
2Alabama13-0
3Notre Dame12-0
4Oklahoma12-1
5UCF12-0
6Ohio State12-1
7Georgia11-2
8Fresno State11-2
9Washington10-3
10Michigan10-2
11Washington State10-2
12Army10-2
13Boise State10-3
14Appalachian State10-2
15Cincinnati10-2
16Utah9-4
17Florida9-3
18Kentucky9-3
19LSU9-3
20UAB10-3
21Utah State10-2
22Penn State9-3
23Buffalo10-3
24NC State9-3
25Syracuse9-3
26Texas9-4
27Troy9-3
28Texas A&M8-4
29Stanford8-4
30Georgia Southern9-3
31Missouri8-4
32Mississippi State8-4
33Iowa8-4
34West Virginia8-3
35Iowa State8-4
36Northwestern8-5
37Northern Illinois8-5
38North Texas9-3
39Oregon8-4
40Temple8-4
41Arkansas State8-4
42South Carolina7-5
43Marshall8-4
44Middle Tennessee8-5
45Pittsburgh7-6
46Ohio8-4
47Hawai'i8-5
48Duke7-5
49Auburn7-5
50Boston College7-5
51Georgia Tech7-5
52Miami7-5
53Memphis8-5
54Michigan State7-5
55Houston8-4
56Virginia7-5
57Arizona State7-5
58Florida Intl8-4
59California7-5
60Eastern Michigan7-5
61San Diego State7-5
62Louisiana7-6
63South Florida7-5
64Wisconsin7-5
65Western Michigan7-5
66Vanderbilt6-6
67Nevada7-5
68Purdue6-6
69BYU6-6
70Wake Forest6-6
71Toledo7-5
72TCU6-6
73Louisiana Tech7-5
74Virginia Tech6-6
75Tulane6-6
76Oklahoma State6-6
77Baylor6-6
78Minnesota6-6
79Wyoming6-6
80Miami (OH)6-6
81Florida State5-7
82Tennessee5-7
83UL Monroe6-6
84Southern Mississippi6-5
85Texas Tech5-7
86Indiana5-7
87Coastal Carolina5-7
88USC5-7
89Maryland5-7
90Florida Atlantic5-7
91Kansas State5-7
92Ole Miss5-7
93Arizona5-7
94Air Force5-7
95SMU5-7
96Colorado5-7
97Charlotte5-7
98Nebraska4-8
99UMass4-8
100UCLA3-9
101Akron4-8
102Illinois4-8
103Ball State4-8
104UNLV4-8
105Old Dominion4-8
106Navy3-10
107South Alabama3-9
108East Carolina3-9
109Kansas3-9
110New Mexico3-9
111Louisville2-10
112Colorado State3-9
113Tulsa3-9
114Bowling Green3-9
115New Mexico State3-9
116Georgia State2-10
117UTSA3-9
118Western Kentucky3-9
119North Carolina2-9
120Oregon State2-10
121Arkansas2-10
122Texas State3-9
123San Jose State1-11
124Rice2-11
125Kent State2-10
126UConn1-11
127Rutgers1-11
128Central Michigan1-11
129UTEP1-11

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford
Week 5 Notre Dame
Week 6 Notre Dame
Week 7 Notre Dame
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Clemson
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson
Week 14 Clemson

2018-12-07

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 14, Thursday

New Orleans over Kansas City

Jacksonville lost to Tennessee, eliminating both Jacksonville and the New York Jets from the playoffs. It's still possible we'll have a 7-9 wildcard in the AFC, but it won't be either of those two due to tiebreakers. I think I should start tracking how many meaningless games there are each year, between 2 teams who can't change their playoff seeding, where everything below 6th is considered equal. We haven't had any such games yet, but with 4 teams eliminated and more coming soon, we could have a few such games next week.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO10-20.72099.78100.0097.2460.1034.8020.32
LAR11-10.678++++99.2858.7128.9015.46
KC10-20.66282.6399.9886.0145.3923.8911.58
CHI8-40.68592.3198.2968.4933.3617.829.67
NE9-30.63399.0799.5184.8841.9120.149.13
HOU9-30.63696.4699.0472.4335.5617.287.88
LAC9-30.66517.3796.6058.5430.6016.157.87
BAL7-50.67237.1974.2441.1121.7011.605.75
SEA7-50.615-92.2749.7820.478.944.16
PIT7-4-10.61362.5081.6938.8218.048.343.61
DAL7-50.55874.6081.7939.3513.865.222.13
MIN6-5-10.5107.6850.8319.686.152.090.76
IND6-60.5852.0713.315.892.541.100.45
DEN6-60.530-14.135.472.080.790.28
PHI6-60.48316.4423.028.582.470.770.26
WAS6-60.4458.9532.1710.412.710.770.23
CAR6-60.4960.2216.415.631.750.580.20
TEN7-60.4931.4713.614.801.660.570.18
MIA6-60.3860.936.911.810.450.120.03
GB4-7-10.4880.021.470.530.160.050.02
TB5-70.438-2.080.580.150.040.01
ATL4-80.434-1.130.330.090.020.01
CIN5-70.3590.290.840.200.050.010.00
DET4-80.380-0.450.110.020.010.00
CLE4-7-10.4110.010.140.040.010.000.00
NYG4-80.4080.010.070.020.000.000.00
BUF4-80.260-0.000.000.000.000.00
ARI3-90.237-0.000.000.000.000.00
NYJ3-90.372------
SF2-100.352------
JAC4-90.351------
OAK2-100.256------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)
First to clinch a playoff spot: Los Angeles Rams (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from the Playoffs: San Francisco and Oakland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City

2018-12-04

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 13, Final

New Orleans over Kansas City

The NFC East is a very mediocre and therefore competitive division this year. Even at 4-8 it's not impossible New York could still win it. Monday night it got even more competitive with Philadelphia pulling out a win against Washington, so now the teams in the division have 7, 6, 6, and 4 wins, all with 12 games played.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO10-20.72099.78100.0097.2560.1134.8020.30
LAR11-10.678++++99.2858.7128.9115.46
KC10-20.66382.6299.9986.1945.3823.8611.57
CHI8-40.68592.3198.2968.4733.3417.819.66
NE9-30.63399.1599.5785.1141.9520.149.13
LAC9-30.66517.3896.6758.5530.5816.127.86
HOU9-30.63696.7999.1271.5535.0917.047.77
BAL7-50.67337.1976.4042.2822.3111.925.91
SEA7-50.615-92.2749.7720.478.944.16
PIT7-4-10.61362.5083.5439.7218.468.523.68
DAL7-50.55874.5781.7739.3613.865.222.13
MIN6-5-10.5107.6750.8019.676.152.090.76
IND6-60.5852.4914.806.552.831.220.50
DEN6-60.530-15.576.032.290.870.31
PHI6-60.48316.4223.018.572.470.770.26
WAS6-60.4459.0032.2510.432.720.770.23
CAR6-60.4960.2216.405.621.750.570.20
TEN6-60.4420.716.431.980.590.180.05
MIA6-60.3860.856.761.770.450.110.03
GB4-7-10.4880.021.470.520.160.050.02
TB5-70.438-2.080.580.150.040.01
ATL4-80.434-1.130.330.080.020.01
CIN5-70.3590.290.910.210.050.010.00
DET4-80.380-0.450.110.020.010.00
CLE4-7-10.4110.010.220.060.020.000.00
NYG4-80.4080.010.080.020.000.000.00
JAC4-80.400-0.020.010.000.000.00
BUF4-80.260-0.000.000.000.000.00
ARI3-90.237-0.000.000.000.000.00
NYJ3-90.372-0.000.000.00--
SF2-100.352------
OAK2-100.256------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)
First to clinch a playoff spot: Los Angeles Rams (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from the Playoffs: San Francisco and Oakland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City

2018-12-03

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 13, Sunday

New Orleans over Kansas City

LA became the first team to clinch a playoff spot, but that barely increase their title odds since they had been sitting at 99.99%+. San Francisco are officially eliminated from the playoffs with their 10th losses. It's a rough day for the Bay Area. New divisional eliminations are Seattle, naturally since LA clinched the NFC West, Denver in the AFC West, Detroit in the NFC North, Jacksonville in the AFC South, and Buffalo in the AFC East.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO10-20.72099.7899.9997.1660.2934.9220.38
LAR11-10.678++++99.3158.7828.9815.50
KC10-20.66382.6299.9986.1045.3323.8411.56
CHI8-40.68592.3197.8567.4432.8917.599.54
NE9-30.63399.1599.5784.8941.8320.099.11
LAC9-30.66517.3896.6758.5030.5616.107.86
HOU9-30.63697.0299.2072.0135.3217.157.83
BAL7-50.67337.1976.4042.2222.2811.915.91
SEA7-50.615-89.8948.0719.778.674.03
PIT7-4-10.61362.5083.6339.7118.468.523.68
DAL7-50.55868.0080.4338.9913.755.182.11
MIN6-5-10.5107.6745.6017.935.601.900.69
WAS6-50.47924.9658.5721.646.201.920.64
IND6-60.5852.3514.896.592.841.230.50
DEN6-60.530-15.606.042.300.870.31
CAR6-60.4960.2213.404.711.470.480.17
PHI5-60.4517.0210.173.470.910.260.08
TEN6-60.4420.636.101.880.560.170.05
MIA6-60.3860.856.791.780.450.110.03
GB4-7-10.4880.021.140.420.120.040.01
TB5-70.438-1.710.500.130.040.01
ATL4-80.434-0.920.270.070.020.01
CIN5-70.3590.290.910.210.050.010.00
CLE4-7-10.4110.010.220.060.020.000.00
DET4-80.380-0.280.070.010.000.00
NYG4-80.4080.010.060.020.000.000.00
JAC4-80.400-0.020.010.000.000.00
BUF4-80.260-0.000.000.000.000.00
ARI3-90.237-0.000.000.000.000.00
NYJ3-90.372-0.00----
SF2-100.352------
OAK2-100.256------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)
First to clinch a playoff spot: Los Angeles Rams (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from the Playoffs: San Francisco and Oakland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City

2018-12-02

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 14

It's the final week, sort of! I still don't like how they pick the CFP before the Army-Navy game. One of these years one of those teams will be in contention and force a last-minute rule change, which may really mess with bowl-selection season. But, if I had to choose today, I'd say the committee got the 4 teams right this year, and only swapped the #1 and #2 seeds. I really want UCF to be in the top 4, but they just aren't this year. Navy played against both UCF and Notre Dame this year, though, so a victory could possibly raise their strengths of schedule to bump Oklahoma out of my top 4. We'll see what happens.

Missouri lost a few spots, but only because some teams who actually played during championship weekend leapfrogged a whole group of teams. That included NC State, UAB, and Stanford who crossed over Missouri's position.

A few very low teams did move slightly, like #119 North Carolina up to #118, swapping with Western Kentucky, but #120 on down stayed in place, leaving UTEP as your antichampion this year.

1Clemson13-0
2Alabama13-0
3Notre Dame12-0
4Oklahoma12-1
5UCF12-0
6Ohio State12-1
7Georgia11-2
8Fresno State11-2
9Washington10-3
10Michigan10-2
11Washington State10-2
12Boise State10-3
13Appalachian State10-2
14Cincinnati10-2
15Utah9-4
16Florida9-3
17Kentucky9-3
18Army9-2
19LSU9-3
20UAB10-3
21Utah State10-2
22Penn State9-3
23Buffalo10-3
24NC State9-3
25Syracuse9-3
26Texas9-4
27Troy9-3
28Texas A&M8-4
29Stanford8-4
30Georgia Southern9-3
31Missouri8-4
32Mississippi State8-4
33Iowa8-4
34West Virginia8-3
35Iowa State8-4
36Northwestern8-5
37Northern Illinois8-5
38North Texas9-3
39Oregon8-4
40Temple8-4
41Arkansas State8-4
42South Carolina7-5
43Marshall8-4
44Middle Tennessee8-5
45Pittsburgh7-6
46Ohio8-4
47Hawai'i8-5
48Duke7-5
49Auburn7-5
50Boston College7-5
51Georgia Tech7-5
52Miami7-5
53Memphis8-5
54Michigan State7-5
55Houston8-4
56Virginia7-5
57Arizona State7-5
58Florida Intl8-4
59California7-5
60San Diego State7-5
61Eastern Michigan7-5
62Louisiana7-6
63South Florida7-5
64Wisconsin7-5
65Vanderbilt6-6
66Western Michigan7-5
67Nevada7-5
68Purdue6-6
69BYU6-6
70Wake Forest6-6
71Toledo7-5
72TCU6-6
73Louisiana Tech7-5
74Virginia Tech6-6
75Tulane6-6
76Oklahoma State6-6
77Baylor6-6
78Minnesota6-6
79Wyoming6-6
80Miami (OH)6-6
81Florida State5-7
82Tennessee5-7
83UL Monroe6-6
84Southern Mississippi6-5
85Texas Tech5-7
86Indiana5-7
87Coastal Carolina5-7
88USC5-7
89Maryland5-7
90Florida Atlantic5-7
91Kansas State5-7
92Ole Miss5-7
93Arizona5-7
94Air Force5-7
95SMU5-7
96Colorado5-7
97Charlotte5-7
98Nebraska4-8
99UMass4-8
100UCLA3-9
101Akron4-8
102Illinois4-8
103Ball State4-8
104UNLV4-8
105Old Dominion4-8
106Navy3-9
107South Alabama3-9
108East Carolina3-9
109Kansas3-9
110New Mexico3-9
111Louisville2-10
112Colorado State3-9
113Tulsa3-9
114Bowling Green3-9
115New Mexico State3-9
116Georgia State2-10
117UTSA3-9
118North Carolina2-9
119Western Kentucky3-9
120Oregon State2-10
121Arkansas2-10
122Texas State3-9
123San Jose State1-11
124Rice2-11
125Kent State2-10
126UConn1-11
127Rutgers1-11
128Central Michigan1-11
129UTEP1-11

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford
Week 5 Notre Dame
Week 6 Notre Dame
Week 7 Notre Dame
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Clemson
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson

2018-11-30

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 13, Thursday

New Orleans over Kansas City

New Orleans had a chance to be the first team to clinch a playoff spot, but couldn't pull out a win against Dallas. Now they'll probably lose that honor to LA, although nothing's for sure until it happens.

Down in nearly-eliminated land, the Dallas win had the effect of lowers Arizona's playoff chances, because that's one more team than Arizona can only tie at 7-9, not beat without a tiebreaker. So, with their odds lowering significantly, they also never won the Super Bowl in today's simulations, despite there being 2 billion of them again. Oakland is also showing as 0.000000% likely to make the playoffs when rounded, which translates to less than 10 playoff appearances in the 2 billion combinations.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO10-20.72098.9099.9794.1959.1235.1621.08
LAR10-10.65699.99100.0095.0953.6625.3813.35
CHI8-30.68992.1798.9476.4640.7022.2612.54
KC9-20.65485.7499.7588.2547.1425.3712.27
LAC8-30.66214.2591.0355.8029.9816.318.04
NE8-30.60698.4398.9777.1336.9317.177.44
HOU8-30.60585.6696.2265.7731.1614.506.26
PIT7-3-10.61980.3090.3152.6226.0212.645.65
BAL6-50.65318.6759.8633.2317.419.154.41
DAL7-50.55867.7076.7338.6914.125.402.29
SEA6-50.5660.0167.5832.2012.034.762.05
IND6-50.58913.4541.8220.019.074.111.71
MIN6-4-10.5397.7060.3026.949.363.471.41
WAS6-50.47925.0452.1020.015.921.870.65
CAR6-50.5091.1025.189.623.181.110.42
DEN5-60.5000.007.983.071.130.420.14
PHI5-60.4517.269.103.420.920.270.09
GB4-6-10.4940.136.172.230.690.230.08
TEN5-60.4310.894.331.390.420.130.04
ATL4-70.452-2.390.740.200.060.02
MIA5-60.3811.474.431.200.310.080.02
CIN5-60.3850.933.801.050.280.080.02
CLE4-6-10.4420.111.340.440.140.040.01
DET4-70.4060.001.000.270.060.020.00
TB4-70.428-0.540.150.040.010.00
BUF4-70.2720.100.150.030.000.000.00
JAC3-80.3940.000.020.000.000.000.00
NYG3-80.4010.000.000.000.000.000.00
NYJ3-80.380-0.010.000.000.000.00
SF2-90.397-0.000.000.000.000.00
OAK2-90.263-0.00----
ARI2-90.243-0.000.000.000.00-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City

2018-11-27

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 12, Final

New Orleans over Kansas City

Houston raised their chances a little and Tennessee lost some ground, but in general things remained the same as Sunday. Also, I didn't notice that yesterday I showed no chance of Oakland winning any of their potential playoff games. A team's chances of winning any game never fall to zero, but since I run full simulations based on probabilities, a bad enough team may show 0 Super Bowl wins. This time of year I try to run over 2 billion simulations each time to avoid that, but Oakland still only managed to win at most one playoff game in any given simulation.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO10-10.71199.5099.9996.8461.9235.7621.03
LAR10-10.65699.99100.0094.6252.3725.3613.34
KC9-20.65485.7499.7588.2847.1525.3812.39
CHI8-30.68992.1799.1474.2039.9521.8812.33
LAC8-30.66314.2591.0255.8129.9916.328.11
NE8-30.60698.4398.9777.0736.9017.167.51
HOU8-30.60585.5696.1865.6431.1014.476.31
PIT7-3-10.61980.5190.4152.7926.1012.685.72
BAL6-50.65318.4759.7933.2017.399.144.44
SEA6-50.5660.0170.3834.5012.815.162.23
IND6-50.58913.5541.9420.069.104.121.73
DAL6-50.54950.8357.8328.4110.163.851.60
MIN6-4-10.5397.7063.4828.9610.053.791.54
WAS6-50.47938.1656.3822.556.672.130.74
CAR6-50.5090.5028.5311.123.611.290.48
DEN5-60.5000.007.963.061.130.410.14
PHI5-60.45011.0012.344.761.290.380.12
GB4-6-10.4940.137.112.600.790.280.10
TEN5-60.4310.884.301.380.420.130.04
ATL4-70.452-2.840.890.240.080.02
MIA5-60.3811.474.401.190.310.080.02
CIN5-60.3850.913.781.040.280.070.02
CLE4-6-10.4420.111.330.440.140.040.01
DET4-70.4060.001.250.340.080.020.01
TB4-70.428-0.710.200.050.020.00
BUF4-70.2720.100.150.030.000.000.00
JAC3-80.3940.000.020.000.000.000.00
NYG3-80.4010.010.020.010.000.000.00
NYJ3-80.380-0.010.000.000.000.00
SF2-90.397-0.000.000.000.000.00
ARI2-90.243-0.000.000.000.000.00
OAK2-90.262-0.000.000.00--

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City

2018-11-26

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 12, Sunday

New Orleans over Kansas City

The projection remains the same this Sunday, and the only elimination is the New York Jets from the AFC East. That's because at best they could tie New England in record and head to head, but would lose on the divisional record tiebreaker, since they are already 0-4 and could at best reach 2-4, compared against New England's 3-0 which will be at worst 3-3. No one has officially clinched a playoff spot, and I don't expect that to change after Monday's game featuring 2 AFC South teams, Houston and Tennessee.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO10-10.71199.5099.9996.8461.9235.7621.12
LAR10-10.65699.99100.0094.6252.3725.3613.41
KC9-20.65485.7499.7689.7048.4726.3512.86
CHI8-30.68992.1799.1574.2139.9621.8812.39
LAC8-30.66314.2591.1757.2630.9617.008.45
NE8-30.60698.4398.9579.6838.9118.187.95
PIT7-3-10.61980.5190.2155.1627.6713.526.10
BAL6-50.65318.4859.3734.0417.909.474.61
HOU7-30.57271.8786.4551.9522.849.883.99
SEA6-50.5660.0170.4034.5112.825.162.24
IND6-50.58920.4342.6020.889.504.331.82
DAL6-50.54951.4058.2028.6010.223.881.62
MIN6-4-10.5397.7063.6129.0110.073.801.55
WAS6-50.47937.0855.1122.016.512.080.73
CAR6-50.5090.5028.6211.153.621.290.49
TEN5-50.4727.7014.555.601.910.650.20
DEN5-60.5000.007.432.971.090.410.14
PHI5-60.45111.5012.914.981.350.400.13
GB4-6-10.4940.137.152.610.790.280.10
ATL4-70.452-2.850.900.240.080.03
MIA5-60.3811.474.371.230.320.090.02
CIN5-60.3850.903.631.040.280.080.02
CLE4-6-10.4420.111.340.460.140.050.01
DET4-70.4060.001.270.350.080.020.01
TB4-70.428-0.710.200.050.020.00
BUF4-70.2720.100.150.030.000.000.00
NYG3-80.4010.010.020.000.000.000.00
JAC3-80.3940.000.010.000.000.000.00
NYJ3-80.380-0.000.000.000.000.00
SF2-90.397-0.000.000.000.000.00
ARI2-90.243-0.000.000.000.000.00
OAK2-90.262-0.000.00---

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City

2018-11-25

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 13

Once again, Clemson remains #1, and in fact my top 4 stayed in place. #3 and #4 will face off next week for the SEC, which I would think will knock one of them down, but of course it depends what the others teams do, too. I've got UCF up to #6. If my rankings were the ones determining the playoff seedings, they'd have been really motivated to find a way to reschedule that UNC game that was canceled earlier this year. Notre Dame will also suffer for not having a conference title game to play in next week (assuming they would have won it, of course).

Missouri shut out Arkansas with a 38-0 win (though remember, all wins count the same in my system, set up following the old BCS rules), but only boosted themselves up 2 spots to #28.

UTEP lost again and remains #129. No teams in that neighborhood have any games remaining, so I award them worst team of the year. I suppose some schedule strength changes could still happen and drag down Central Michigan below them, but it doesn't seem too likely.

1Clemson12-0
2Notre Dame12-0
3Alabama12-0
4Georgia11-1
5Oklahoma11-1
6UCF11-0
7Ohio State11-1
8Michigan10-2
9Washington State10-2
10Boise State10-2
11Cincinnati10-2
12Fresno State10-2
13Utah9-3
14Florida9-3
15Kentucky9-3
16Washington9-3
17LSU9-3
18Army9-2
19Buffalo10-2
20Utah State10-2
21Penn State9-3
22Syracuse9-3
23Texas9-3
24Appalachian State9-2
25Texas A&M8-4
26Troy9-3
27Georgia Southern9-3
28Missouri8-4
29Mississippi State8-4
30NC State8-3
31Iowa8-4
32UAB9-3
33West Virginia8-3
34Northwestern8-4
35North Texas9-3
36Stanford7-4
37Temple8-4
38Marshall8-3
39Oregon8-4
40Arkansas State8-4
41Middle Tennessee8-4
42Pittsburgh7-5
43Hawai'i8-5
44Ohio8-4
45Duke7-5
46Auburn7-5
47Iowa State7-4
48Boston College7-5
49Georgia Tech7-5
50Miami7-5
51Memphis8-4
52Michigan State7-5
53Houston8-4
54South Carolina6-5
55Florida Intl8-4
56Arizona State7-5
57Northern Illinois7-5
58California7-4
59Virginia7-5
60Louisiana7-5
61San Diego State7-5
62Eastern Michigan7-5
63South Florida7-5
64Wisconsin7-5
65Vanderbilt6-6
66Purdue6-6
67Nevada7-5
68Western Michigan7-5
69Wake Forest6-6
70BYU6-6
71TCU6-6
72Toledo7-5
73Louisiana Tech7-5
74Tulane6-6
75Minnesota6-6
76Oklahoma State6-6
77Baylor6-6
78Wyoming6-6
79Miami (OH)6-6
80Tennessee5-7
81Florida State5-7
82UL Monroe6-6
83Southern Mississippi6-5
84Indiana5-7
85Texas Tech5-7
86Virginia Tech5-6
87Maryland5-7
88USC5-7
89Coastal Carolina5-7
90Florida Atlantic5-7
91Kansas State5-7
92Ole Miss5-7
93Arizona5-7
94Air Force5-7
95SMU5-7
96Colorado5-7
97Charlotte5-7
98Nebraska4-8
99UMass4-8
100UCLA3-9
101Akron4-7
102Illinois4-8
103UNLV4-8
104Ball State4-8
105Navy3-9
106East Carolina3-8
107Old Dominion4-8
108South Alabama3-9
109Kansas3-9
110New Mexico3-9
111Louisville2-10
112Tulsa3-9
113Colorado State3-9
114Bowling Green3-9
115Georgia State2-10
116UTSA3-9
117New Mexico State3-9
118Western Kentucky3-9
119North Carolina2-9
120Oregon State2-10
121Arkansas2-10
122Texas State3-9
123San Jose State1-11
124Rice2-11
125Kent State2-10
126UConn1-11
127Rutgers1-11
128Central Michigan1-11
129UTEP1-11

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford
Week 5 Notre Dame
Week 6 Notre Dame
Week 7 Notre Dame
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Clemson
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson

2018-11-23

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 12, Thursday

New Orleans over Kansas City

I had a little downtime on thanksgiving, so I ran my numbers after Chicago beat Detroit in the first game of the day, and Chicago had taken over as the strongest team in the league with a .689, just ahead of New Orleans' .688. But, with a big win over Atlanta, New Orleans jumped ahead again, and remains the Super Bowl favorite. We had a few divisional eliminations, both by virtue of New Orleans 10-1 record. Tampa and Atlanta's 7 losses each mean neither can catch them now. Los Angeles, also at 10-1, could be the first team to clinch a playoff spot this weekend, and they're on bye. If Seattle loses, the head-to-head sweep tiebreaker mean that LA wins the NFC West. If they don't clinch this weekend, I might have to spend some time to try to construct the rare scenario in which they don't make the playoffs with 10 wins. That's only happened 6 times since 2002 when we've had 32 teams, or a total of 8 times since 1990 when the playoffs were expanded to 12 teams, but it has also happened once in that time frame with an 11-win team, New England in 2008.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO10-10.71198.5499.9996.9262.6136.1721.90
KC9-20.65491.2499.8091.7952.6829.5814.44
LAR10-10.65699.99100.0094.4752.4425.4713.86
CHI8-30.68993.8499.0874.6340.3622.1212.86
PIT7-2-10.62790.8296.1873.6239.6220.339.35
NE7-30.58093.6196.1168.2132.0514.636.02
LAC7-30.6038.7584.6347.9323.0211.374.95
HOU7-30.57275.5887.8055.1325.0811.304.56
BAL5-50.6217.0351.4128.3914.147.253.29
DAL6-50.54954.4061.6631.3011.184.241.84
IND5-50.58316.3134.9317.608.013.761.56
SEA5-50.5610.0146.9922.278.153.271.46
CAR6-40.5151.4652.6423.057.542.691.07
MIN5-4-10.5244.6744.4719.196.402.350.96
WAS6-50.47937.9058.0323.907.072.260.83
GB4-5-10.5081.4923.069.172.911.040.41
TEN5-50.4728.0214.966.002.090.750.24
CIN5-50.4092.1314.164.751.390.430.11
PHI4-60.4447.438.423.320.880.250.08
MIA5-50.3866.0314.374.461.210.350.08
DEN4-60.4860.004.001.580.570.210.07
ATL4-70.452-3.561.160.310.100.03
DET4-70.4060.001.340.380.090.020.01
CLE3-6-10.4130.020.760.250.070.020.01
NYJ3-70.4080.240.370.120.030.010.00
JAC3-70.4000.100.370.120.030.010.00
NYG3-70.4070.270.380.130.030.010.00
TB3-70.404-0.350.100.020.010.00
SF2-80.432-0.030.010.000.000.00
BUF3-70.2730.130.160.030.010.000.00
ARI2-80.290-0.010.000.000.000.00
OAK2-80.288-0.000.000.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City