2019-09-17

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 2, Final

New England over Dallas

Cleveland beat the New York Jets, and as expected that lowered Baltimore's divisional chances a little, and raised New England's a little, and that was enough to let New England supplant Baltimore atop the AFC.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE2-00.56252.8576.1358.1931.6417.059.26
BAL2-00.55865.9576.2358.3431.4216.729.00
DAL2-00.54263.0871.8653.2028.1914.797.56
KC2-00.54654.7770.1551.8527.2014.077.39
SF2-00.55037.4163.2247.4125.5213.657.08
GB2-00.53946.5363.7147.6125.0413.046.62
BUF2-00.53440.8466.1846.7423.6911.996.15
LAR2-00.53733.0559.8843.6522.7911.876.01
TEN1-10.54637.2553.2236.5218.959.785.14
SEA2-00.50622.7345.7830.7114.927.263.45
DET1-0-10.50724.5540.8127.3313.376.523.10
MIN1-10.52518.4936.4624.1212.226.183.05
LAC1-10.50723.9041.6426.1812.485.922.89
IND1-10.49228.3040.5924.4511.265.172.44
PHI1-10.50225.3835.7222.0410.675.152.42
HOU1-10.49825.0437.5823.0210.755.012.39
TB1-10.48232.3437.7021.759.964.572.06
ATL1-10.47527.5932.9318.798.493.831.70
CLE1-10.47818.9031.1817.737.943.561.63
OAK1-10.47714.8829.9917.077.603.391.55
NO1-10.47126.3031.1817.517.833.491.53
CHI1-10.47910.4422.1513.216.072.801.26
ARI0-1-10.4886.8019.2911.465.372.531.16
CAR0-20.48213.7717.499.494.342.000.90
JAC0-20.4729.4115.828.333.641.600.72
CIN0-20.4608.2115.788.313.561.530.67
DEN0-20.4756.4513.807.493.321.480.67
WAS0-20.4765.9911.656.382.921.340.60
PIT0-20.4506.9412.736.432.691.130.49
NYG0-20.4515.5510.185.332.300.990.42
NYJ0-20.4503.409.914.982.090.880.38
MIA0-20.4382.909.084.361.770.720.30

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas

2019-09-16

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 2, Sunday

Baltimore over Dallas

New England is by far the strongest team, but Baltimore's weaker division is keeping them just a little ahead in chances to win the AFC. Monday's game between division rivals of each team (Cleveland for Baltimore and New York Jets for New England) will certainly have an effect.

The team New England dominated 43-0, Miami, is now the worst in the league with the worst chances of winning the Super Bowl, but there are 8 teams below the 1% mark.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL2-00.55869.4777.3558.9131.6816.859.07
NE2-00.56249.1273.6456.0230.4316.408.89
DAL2-00.54263.0771.5752.7527.9514.677.50
KC2-00.54654.9869.9951.8927.1814.057.39
SF2-00.55037.4163.3947.5625.5813.707.12
GB2-00.53946.5763.8347.7725.1313.096.65
BUF2-00.53438.9964.7545.7823.2011.746.03
LAR2-00.53733.0560.0643.8222.8611.906.02
TEN1-10.54637.3852.8836.3818.879.725.11
SEA2-00.50622.7445.9930.8515.017.303.47
DET1-0-10.50724.5540.9027.4213.426.533.11
MIN1-10.52518.4636.5424.1912.276.213.07
LAC1-10.50723.9941.3526.1112.455.922.88
IND1-10.49228.3640.3324.3711.215.142.42
PHI1-10.50225.3835.3521.7410.515.082.39
HOU1-10.49825.1237.3722.9610.735.002.38
TB1-10.48232.3737.7321.789.994.572.07
ATL1-10.47527.6032.9618.848.503.831.70
NYJ0-10.4979.3625.4614.826.903.231.54
NO1-10.47126.2831.1717.527.833.501.54
OAK1-10.47714.5028.9916.527.363.271.50
CHI1-10.47910.4222.2113.266.102.801.25
ARI0-1-10.4886.8019.4411.555.402.541.16
CLE0-10.47114.0122.0011.995.282.331.05
CAR0-20.48213.7517.479.494.351.990.90
JAC0-20.4719.1515.288.063.531.550.70
CIN0-20.4608.9415.888.343.581.540.68
DEN0-20.4756.5213.667.453.301.460.67
WAS0-20.4766.0011.436.252.861.310.58
PIT0-20.4507.5812.846.462.711.140.49
NYG0-20.4515.549.985.202.240.970.41
MIA0-20.4382.538.223.951.600.650.27

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay

2019-09-15

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 3

I should really implement something showing me how far each team rose and fell each week. That'd be fun early in the season. Texas Tech lost to fall from #1 all the way to #38, while Auburn rose to #1 from #9. LSU and SMU both fell 17 spots despite wins this week, from #2 and #3 to #19 and #20, because those wins were against 0-3 teams. The rankings are starting to get closer to the real world polls, though. I have to go all the way down to #23 San Diego State to find a team that didn't get at least one vote in the AP or Coaches top 25.

The number of undefeated teams is down to 35 this week.

Missouri took on Southeast Missouri State for an easy 50-0 win to pad their total, and have risen up to #30 for their efforts. They were the best 1-1 team last week, but are only the 5th best 2-1 team now.

1Auburn3-0
2Arizona State3-0
3Ohio State3-0
4California3-0
5Utah3-0
6Oklahoma State3-0
7Clemson3-0
8Boise State3-0
9Kansas State3-0
10Virginia3-0
11Memphis3-0
12Florida3-0
13Iowa3-0
14Wake Forest3-0
15UCF3-0
16Wyoming3-0
17Minnesota3-0
18Alabama3-0
19LSU3-0
20SMU3-0
21Penn State3-0
22Georgia3-0
23San Diego State3-0
24Oklahoma3-0
25Washington State3-0
26West Virginia2-1
27Oregon2-1
28Eastern Michigan2-1
29Mississippi State2-1
30Missouri2-1
31Arizona2-1
32Kentucky2-1
33Michigan State2-1
34Western Michigan2-1
35Ole Miss2-1
36Notre Dame2-0
37Hawai'i2-1
38Texas Tech2-1
39TCU2-0
40Duke2-1
41BYU2-1
42Boston College2-1
43Kansas2-1
44Michigan2-0
45Coastal Carolina2-1
46Wisconsin2-0
47Washington2-1
48Colorado2-1
49Marshall2-1
50Nebraska2-1
51Air Force2-0
52Southern Mississippi2-1
53Appalachian State2-0
54North Carolina2-1
55Temple2-0
56Nevada2-1
57NC State2-1
58Navy2-0
59Texas A&M2-1
60Texas2-1
61Cincinnati2-1
62Virginia Tech2-1
63Georgia State2-1
64USC2-1
65Louisville2-1
66Arkansas2-1
67Maryland2-1
68UAB2-0
69Army2-1
70Illinois2-1
71Tulane2-1
72Baylor2-0
73Louisiana Tech2-1
74Central Michigan2-1
75Indiana2-1
76Louisiana2-1
77Charlotte2-1
78Kent State1-2
79Miami (OH)1-2
80Northern Illinois1-2
81Utah State1-1
82UTEP1-1
83Georgia Southern1-2
84Iowa State1-1
85Old Dominion1-1
86Miami1-2
87Florida State1-2
88North Texas1-2
89Florida Atlantic1-2
90Toledo1-1
91Tulsa1-2
92Pittsburgh1-2
93Stanford1-2
94Troy1-1
95New Mexico1-1
96Arkansas State1-2
97Georgia Tech1-2
98Oregon State1-2
99Houston1-2
100South Alabama1-2
101South Florida1-2
102Middle Tennessee1-2
T-103Western Kentucky1-2
T-103Syracuse1-2
105Tennessee1-2
106East Carolina1-2
107Rutgers1-1
108Purdue1-2
109Northwestern1-1
T-110UTSA1-2
T-110South Carolina1-2
112Bowling Green1-2
113UConn1-1
114Colorado State1-2
115UL Monroe1-1
116San Jose State1-1
117Ball State1-2
118Ohio1-2
119Liberty1-2
120Florida International1-2
121UNLV1-2
122Buffalo1-2
123New Mexico State0-3
124Fresno State0-2
125Texas State0-3
126UCLA0-3
127Rice0-3
128Vanderbilt0-2
129Akron0-3
130UMass0-3


2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech

2019-09-13

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 2, Thursday

Baltimore over Green Bay

This is where I usually rant about how I hate this particular point in the season, because there are only 2 teams that have played 2 games, and often it means there's a mediocre 2-0 that looks way better than they should. This year, the result of the Thursday game put Tampa at 1-1 and squarely in the middle of the pack, with Carolina down to 0-2, yet still not worse than Chicago. Overall, the projection stays the same.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL1-00.53149.7760.9744.1223.0812.056.32
TEN1-00.53047.2560.0143.5622.7611.846.18
NE1-00.53141.5257.8642.0122.0511.526.01
GB1-00.53036.9053.2238.1420.0310.505.44
DAL1-00.52540.5554.2738.4219.9610.335.30
MIN1-00.52735.0552.1637.1719.3810.115.22
SF1-00.52331.0650.4835.8818.529.554.89
OAK1-00.51731.4050.5235.0717.839.034.59
KC1-00.51829.6549.1534.1117.388.844.51
LAC1-00.51029.2848.6633.3816.748.374.21
NO1-00.50343.2551.7734.7217.168.454.16
PHI1-00.50835.0348.8833.3216.708.354.13
BUF1-00.50332.6448.8133.1016.318.033.98
LAR1-00.50525.9744.7130.5415.207.553.72
SEA1-00.50224.8642.6328.8714.267.053.45
ARI0-0-10.50018.1133.8922.1010.895.352.62
DET0-0-10.50019.6032.9621.3210.505.172.53
CIN0-10.49820.5130.7319.149.324.532.22
TB1-10.48227.4235.3821.2510.004.702.21
HOU0-10.49718.4828.9118.008.764.252.08
NYJ0-10.49714.3226.4916.377.943.861.88
IND0-10.49018.1627.5916.748.013.831.85
WAS0-10.49213.4323.1914.126.843.331.60
JAC0-10.48216.1124.7514.726.953.281.55
ATL0-10.47317.7123.5113.546.272.901.34
DEN0-10.4839.6821.0612.565.922.791.32
CLE0-10.47015.1322.2812.815.852.691.24
PIT0-10.46914.6021.9612.585.742.631.21
NYG0-10.47510.9919.5111.465.352.501.16
MIA0-10.46911.5220.2511.735.362.451.13
CAR0-20.48211.6316.509.294.372.060.97
CHI0-10.4708.4516.949.864.552.100.96

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay

2019-09-10

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 1

Baltimore over Green Bay


What's this? Here's a quick rundown originally taken from 2014's introductory post.
Each year I project the Super Bowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.
In week 1, the top teams are the ones with the biggest point differential, which could simply be a function of playing one very bad team. New England won 33-3. They might be the strongest team, or Pittsburgh might be the weakest team. Or both could be true. Pittsburgh avoids being lowest on the list because of a currently weak division, 1-3 in aggregate. Also, I only show 3 decimal places here, but with a few more New England has the higher strength by just a little bit over Baltimore, who won 59-10, and is the AFC favorite for now, just like in week 1 last year. Also like week 1 last year, we have a tie. I really don't like ties that much, because some of the other hastily coded numbers I output for my own use assume a whole number of wins and losses summing to 16. But, Arizona and Detroit have uglied the charts just like Cleveland and Pittsburgh last year.

Also, because I know you're going through my post history, you'll see that the week 1 leader always has a .530 or .531. Why is that? New England, to 5 decimal places, is .53121. The highest possible in my system after one week is .53125, which is 1/16 of the way from .500 to a perfect 1.000, and is achievable only by a shutout, but by any score by the winning team. That's because the strengths are regressed back to .500 a lot at the beginning of the year, so that something like a 3-0 win doesn't result in a team that appears completely dominant.

Anyway, things are mostly even as usual, with a few outliers. Chicago is the rare team that is below 1% likely to win after just the first week. It's not unprecedented, but it doesn't happen all that often. Buffalo 2018 and New York Giants 2017 were both listed at 0.97%, and they wound up 6-10 and 3-13, respectively. Don't hold out much hope for Chicago, is what I'm saying.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL1-00.53149.8161.0244.1423.1312.086.31
TEN1-00.53047.2259.8943.4522.7011.826.14
NE1-00.53141.5657.9042.0522.0711.526.02
GB1-00.53036.7253.0137.9219.8910.435.40
DAL1-00.52540.6154.2938.4519.9510.345.30
MIN1-00.52735.0752.1937.1919.4010.105.22
SF1-00.52330.9350.2635.6618.459.504.87
OAK1-00.51731.3750.5335.0817.849.044.61
KC1-00.51829.7149.2234.1717.428.874.51
LAC1-00.51029.2648.6833.4316.728.364.19
PHI1-00.50835.0948.9433.3516.688.344.14
NO1-00.50342.5951.2034.3316.928.334.10
BUF1-00.50332.5948.7433.0716.278.003.96
LAR1-00.50526.2044.9030.6915.277.573.73
SEA1-00.50224.7742.4328.6814.177.003.44
ARI0-0-10.50018.1033.7221.9810.805.302.59
DET0-0-10.50019.7333.1121.3810.525.192.53
CIN0-10.49820.4530.7319.139.304.522.20
HOU0-10.49718.4828.8317.978.724.252.07
CAR0-10.49521.7328.7717.448.464.101.99
NYJ0-10.49714.3226.4616.357.963.871.90
IND0-10.49018.1927.5616.718.003.831.85
WAS0-10.49213.3223.0514.036.783.281.58
JAC0-10.48216.1124.6914.656.893.251.55
TB0-10.47718.3824.6314.316.683.111.45
DEN0-10.4839.6621.0912.575.932.801.33
ATL0-10.47317.3123.0913.306.162.841.32
CLE0-10.47015.1322.3212.845.892.701.25
PIT0-10.46914.6122.0012.625.772.641.22
NYG0-10.47510.9919.4911.415.312.471.15
MIA0-10.46911.5320.3211.765.392.471.13
CHI0-10.4708.4916.949.874.562.100.97

2019-09-09

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 2

I'm a day late due to a Sunday game in Division II. In the future I'll just fold those games into the next week's rankings. But I didn't want to leave out the powerhouses of Florida Tech and Savannah State.

After just 2 weeks, we've got enough separation between each team that there are only a handful of ties in the 130-team field. Texas Tech is #1, but they have a very tenuous hold on the spot. The top 15 teams each have cumulative opponent records of 2-2, but Texas Tech's opponents have beaten slightly higher ranked teams. The wins and losses of the top teams' FCS opponents, and opponents' opponents, etc., can easily flip the ordering around early in the season, so Texas Tech has to be happy that Montana State beat Southeast Missouri State, who beat Southern Illinois, who beat UMass.

There are 52 undefeated teams remaining, mostly 2-0 but 8 teams are taking an early bye week sitting at 1-0.

I didn't mention Missouri last week, but I'm still watching them. They lost pretty unexpectedly to Wyoming to just destroy any illusions their fans had of a national title chance, but came back strong against West Virginia this week. I've got them at #46, the best 1-1 team around!

1Texas Tech2-0
2LSU2-0
3SMU2-0
4Michigan State2-0
5Boise State2-0
6Boston College2-0
7Utah2-0
8Arizona State2-0
9Auburn2-0
10Michigan2-0
11Mississippi State2-0
12California2-0
13Colorado2-0
14Virginia2-0
15Iowa2-0
16Kentucky2-0
17Alabama2-0
18Hawai'i2-0
19Oklahoma2-0
20Clemson2-0
21Penn State2-0
22Appalachian State2-0
23Wyoming2-0
24Memphis2-0
25Kansas State2-0
26Baylor2-0
27Wake Forest2-0
T-28Minnesota2-0
T-28USC2-0
30Oklahoma State2-0
31UAB2-0
32Ohio State2-0
33Illinois2-0
34Florida2-0
35Maryland2-0
36NC State2-0
37North Carolina2-0
38UCF2-0
39Wisconsin2-0
40San Diego State2-0
41Georgia2-0
42Georgia State2-0
43Indiana2-0
44Washington State2-0
45TCU1-0
46Missouri1-1
47Notre Dame1-0
48Georgia Southern1-1
49Virginia Tech1-1
50Northern Illinois1-1
51Oregon1-1
52Duke1-1
53Eastern Michigan1-1
54Ole Miss1-1
T-55Navy1-0
T-55New Mexico1-0
T-55Troy1-0
58UTEP1-1
59North Texas1-1
60Marshall1-1
61West Virginia1-1
62Kent State1-1
63Tulsa1-1
64Iowa State1-0
65Southern Mississippi1-1
66Western Michigan1-1
67Texas1-1
T-68Washington1-1
T-68Arkansas State1-1
70Middle Tennessee1-1
71Florida State1-1
72Pittsburgh1-1
73Arizona1-1
74Miami (OH)1-1
75Nebraska1-1
76Houston1-1
77UTSA1-1
78Utah State1-1
79Central Michigan1-1
80Louisville1-1
81Old Dominion1-1
T-82Nevada1-1
T-82Arkansas1-1
84Coastal Carolina1-1
85Army1-1
86Air Force1-0
87Bowling Green1-1
88Texas A&M1-1
89BYU1-1
90Stanford1-1
91Georgia Tech1-1
92Tulane1-1
93Temple1-0
94Louisiana1-1
95Colorado State1-1
96Cincinnati1-1
97Buffalo1-1
98Western Kentucky1-1
99Rutgers1-1
100Charlotte1-1
101UConn1-1
102Ball State1-1
103Syracuse1-1
104East Carolina1-1
105South Carolina1-1
106San Jose State1-1
107Ohio1-1
108South Alabama1-1
T-109UNLV1-1
T-109Louisiana Tech1-1
111UL Monroe1-1
112Purdue1-1
113Kansas1-1
114Toledo0-1
115Oregon State0-2
116Fresno State0-2
T-117Akron0-2
T-117New Mexico State0-2
119Florida Atlantic0-2
120Miami0-2
121Northwestern0-1
122Rice0-2
123Texas State0-2
124South Florida0-2
125Tennessee0-2
126UCLA0-2
127Vanderbilt0-2
128Florida International0-2
129Liberty0-2
130UMass0-2


2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie

2019-09-03

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 1

College football is back! Week 1 is done, and here's my lazy copy-and-paste job of what I'm doing here.

A few years ago, I thought to myself, "I could do a better job than some of the BCS computers". As I recall, at the time I felt Mizzou was underrated. The BCS rules stated margin of victory cannot be used, so I thought I'd stick to that. I put together a convergence algorithm, in which I initially rank the teams by record (so all the undefeated teams start tied at #1), then calculate each team's strength of schedule based on the current rankings of its opponents, and re-sort based on that strength. I run through this process until 2 consecutive iterations give the same result, or there is a loop. So, if iteration 10,002 gives the same rankings as iteration 10,000, then each subsequent iteration would fluctuate between the rankings in 10,000 and 10,001. I average those rankings to come up with the final rankings. It is still possible - but generally unlikely - that teams can tie for a final ranking. Now that the BCS is dead, I'll just consider these rankings my advice on #1 to #4 to the College Football Playoff committee.

Due to most teams playing other teams in lower divisions at times, and a lack of desire on my part to delve so deeply that I have to track down NAIA schedules, I've decided to count all games listed on ESPN's college football site, which includes all FBS, FCS, and Division II and III schedules, and any of their lower-tier opponents, but only when those opponents play at least a Division III team. (i.e., an NAIA team will be listed when they play against a Div III team, but the rest of their games won't be listed, resulting in a lot of 0-1 teams mixed into my system). I then filter the final results to only the FBS schools.

In the past, in week 1, there were only 2 possible situations for a team. First is to be 1-0, having defeated an 0-1 team. Second is, unsurprisingly, to be a 0-1 team, having lost to a 1-0 team. For this reason, in week 1, all 1-0 teams will be tied for #1, and the rest tied at N+1, where N is the number of #1 teams. Did your team choose to beat up on an FCS (formerly known as Division 1-AA) team? Congrats, you're #1 this week! However, since 2016 we seem to be in the era of the pre-Week-1 game, which means a 2-0, 0-2, and/or 1-1 team might be in the mix. Also, some teams may not play in Week 1, and you don't get a ranking until you play, thus the bottom of the chart may not be the full number of teams in FBS.

I listed some caveats at the end there, but despite 4 teams playing over a week ago, all the FBS teams have played exactly 1 game after week 1. Last year had 129 teams, with Liberty in the midst of transitioning to full eligibility. They are there now, and we've got 130 teams. I think some rules may have changed this year, though I haven't been able to find confirmation, because the only Division II or III games were ones against FCS teams, which was only 8 total games, so they are mostly all starting next week.

Onto the fairly pointless rankings of Week 1. I want to point out that the ordering here is not significant; Florida is exactly tied with all 82 other #1 teams. Air Force is lowest ranked 1-0 team at #84 because they beat Samford, one of the two teams that has actually played 2 games, and happens to be 0-2.


1Florida1-0
1Hawai'i1-0
1Clemson1-0
1Texas A&M1-0
1Utah1-0
1UCF1-0
1Cincinnati1-0
1UConn1-0
1Bowling Green1-0
1Buffalo1-0
1Charlotte1-0
1Tulane1-0
1UAB1-0
1Central Michigan1-0
1Minnesota1-0
1Arizona State1-0
1San Jose State1-0
1Michigan State1-0
1Wisconsin1-0
1Army1-0
1Rutgers1-0
1Wake Forest1-0
1Nevada1-0
1Colorado1-0
1Oklahoma State1-0
1Alabama1-0
1Georgia1-0
1Ohio State1-0
1LSU1-0
1Michigan1-0
1Texas1-0
1Auburn1-0
1Washington1-0
1Penn State1-0
1Iowa1-0
1Iowa State1-0
1Syracuse1-0
1Washington State1-0
1Nebraska1-0
1Stanford1-0
1Illinois1-0
1Indiana1-0
1Boise State1-0
1NC State1-0
1Kansas1-0
1Kentucky1-0
1Memphis1-0
1Mississippi State1-0
1Maryland1-0
1West Virginia1-0
1Ohio1-0
1Temple1-0
1Navy1-0
1Eastern Michigan1-0
1North Carolina1-0
1Georgia State1-0
1Appalachian State1-0
1Arkansas1-0
1Texas Tech1-0
1Boston College1-0
1New Mexico1-0
1UTSA1-0
1Troy1-0
1California1-0
1Marshall1-0
1Old Dominion1-0
1Southern Mississippi1-0
1Northern Illinois1-0
1Western Michigan1-0
1SMU1-0
1Kansas State1-0
1Baylor1-0
1Wyoming1-0
1Virginia1-0
1North Texas1-0
1UTEP1-0
1TCU1-0
1UL Monroe1-0
1San Diego State1-0
1UNLV1-0
1USC1-0
1Oklahoma1-0
1Notre Dame1-0
84Air Force1-0
85Miami0-1
85Arizona0-1
85Georgia Tech0-1
85Texas State0-1
85BYU0-1
85UCLA0-1
85Western Kentucky0-1
85Florida International0-1
85Kent State0-1
85Tulsa0-1
85South Florida0-1
85Rice0-1
85UMass0-1
85Utah State0-1
85Purdue0-1
85Colorado State0-1
85Oregon State0-1
85Duke0-1
85Vanderbilt0-1
85Florida Atlantic0-1
85Georgia Southern0-1
85Middle Tennessee0-1
85Louisiana Tech0-1
85Oregon0-1
85Miami (OH)0-1
85Liberty0-1
85New Mexico State0-1
85South Alabama0-1
85Northwestern0-1
85Akron0-1
85Ball State0-1
85Florida State0-1
85East Carolina0-1
85Toledo0-1
85Ole Miss0-1
85Louisiana0-1
85Coastal Carolina0-1
85South Carolina0-1
85Tennessee0-1
85Virginia Tech0-1
85Arkansas State0-1
85Missouri0-1
85Pittsburgh0-1
85Fresno State0-1
85Houston0-1
85Louisville0-1

2019-06-10

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, June 10

Boston over St. Louis

Stanley Cup Final
BOS 3-3 STL

Round 3
STL 4-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthCup
BOS0.59259.1
STL0.55140.9

We're tied 3-3 and the whole thing comes down to one final game in Boston. I'm hoping St. Louis can make it more of a game than they did in game 6, and even moreso of course I'm hoping they will win.

I've been reading up on modeling NHL games, and the consensus seems to be that overtime is almost random, shaded just slightly toward the team that was favored to win the game. That's because the initial odds consider the chances of one team scoring more than the other over the course of 60 minutes, but overtime could be considered like a bunch of 1-second games, which of course would almost always finish in ties, but will eventually result in a goal for one side or the other. That's a long-winded way of pointing out that while the chances are 59.1% for Boston now, they slide ever-closer to 50% the later in the game it gets with a tied score.

2019-06-07

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, June 7

St. Louis over Boston

Stanley Cup Final
BOS 2-3 STL

Round 3
STL 4-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthCup
STL0.55170.9
BOS0.59229.1

Boston never had a lead in game 5, but the game was close the whole time, tied until the first minute of the second period, and only about 3 minutes of time when St. Louis was up by 2. I thought Boston looked like the stronger team, and they got many more shots on goal, but in the end St. Louis won by a goal.

Bonus stats, some of which are redundant if you really think about it. For example, the odds of STL winning in 6 are the inverse of a game 7 being necessary.

Game 749.2
BOS in 729.1
STL in 650.8
STL in 720.1

2019-06-04

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, June 4

Boston over St. Louis

Stanley Cup Final
BOS 2-2 STL

Round 3
STL 4-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthCup
BOS0.59258.7
STL0.55141.3

St. Louis scored in the first minute of the game and seemed poised to dominate the game, but it was tied 1-1 and 2-2 before they took the lead for good with 10 minutes to go. They'll get 2 days off and Game 5 will be Thursday, and of course with a 2-2 tie we'll at least have 6 games, with that one falling on Sunday

Bonus stats!

Game 750.1
BOS in 629.1
BOS in 729.6
STL in 620.8
STL in 720.5

2019-06-02

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, June 2

Boston over St. Louis

Stanley Cup Final
BOS 2-1 STL

Round 3
STL 4-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthCup
BOS0.59274.8
STL0.55125.2

Game 3 was a little ugly, with a final score of 7-2. It was 5-2 when St. Louis pulled the goalie and gave up an empty net goal, which you tend to ignore when evaluating a game, but then Boston scored another one on a power play, so it kind of feels like they all count. Either way, it's just one loss, so everything could turn around in game 4.

Bonus stats!

Game 670.9
Game 735.7
BOS in 529.1
BOS in 624.7
BOS in 721.1
STL in 610.6
STL in 714.6

2019-05-30

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 30

Boston over St. Louis

Stanley Cup Final
BOS 1-1 STL

Round 3
STL 4-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthCup
BOS0.59255.9
STL0.55144.1

St. Louis has finally won a game in the Stanley Cup Final, after going 0 for their first 13. The series is tied, The series is tied, and home ice advantage now belongs to St. Louis, but Boston is still slightly favored. Since I bothered to calculate the chances of all these things below, I might as well show them too.

Game 675.1
Game 737.6
BOS in 40
BOS in 514.3
BOS in 619.4
BOS in 722.2
STL in 40
STL in 510.6
STL in 618.1
STL in 715.4

2019-05-28

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 28

Boston over St. Louis

Stanley Cup Final
BOS 1-0 STL

Round 3
STL 4-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthCup
BOS0.59273.2
STL0.55126.8

St. Louis took a 2-0 lead in game 1, but allowed 3 unanswered goals plus another on an empty net to lose 4-2. It'll be an uphill climb, but they still have a better than 1-in-4 chance to win the cup. Now that we're down to 1 series, I ran a few other numbers I thought might be interesting, partially motivated by trying to figure out my plans for next Sunday.

Chances of...
A sweep: 14.3%
At least 5 games: 85.7%
At least 6 games: 58.1%
All 7 games: 29.2%

2019-05-24

May Card Show Autograph

May 2018, that is. I'm going to get caught up on everything I want to post one of these days; at least I keep telling myself that. Anyway, today's autograph is Lindy McDaniel.

Lindy McDaniel
#41
Lindy played for the Cardinals from 1955-1962, starting at the age of 19. He had his best season in 1960, earning a Save in one of the 2 All-Star games, and a Cy Young vote, finishing third. He continued with other teams all the way through 1975, his age 39 season.

2019-05-22

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 22

Boston over St. Louis

Stanley Cup Final
BOS 0-0 STL

Round 3
STL 4-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthCup
BOS0.59260.6
STL0.55139.4

I never felt like this day would come, but St. Louis is in the Stanley Cup Final. They're playing a stronger team and don't have home ice, but a 60/40 chance really isn't all that bad. They'll have 5 off days to recuperate, compared against Boston's 10, with the series starting on Monday night.

2019-05-20

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 20

Boston over St. Louis

Round 3
STL 3-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
BOS0.592100.060.6
STL0.55175.329.7
SJS0.55124.79.7


St. Louis won 5-0 to go up 3-2 in the series. They're now just about 75% likely to make the final. That's because they'll be approximately 50% likely to win in game 6, and the remaining 25% comes from their roughly 50% chance to win game 7 combined with the 50% chance of losing game 6. The series resumes Tuesday back in St. Louis.

2019-05-18

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 18

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 2-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
BOS0.592100.060.6
SJS0.55152.520.7
STL0.55147.518.7


The Western Conference finals are back to even, but unlike when it was 1-1, San Jose now has home ice advantage again (1 of the next 2 plus game 7), and so they are favored this time, just like they were at 0-0. A 52.5% advantage is still pretty close though, like flipping an almost-fair coin, or, more exactly, rolling a 40 sided die and having 21 chances to win but 19 chances to lose.

2019-05-17

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 17

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 1-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
BOS0.592100.060.6
SJS0.55168.927.1
STL0.55131.112.3


Boston finished their 4-0 sweep with a 4-0 win, and now waits for at least 2 more games to be played in the West before the final can be scheduled. Their chances to win will stay right about that 60.6% listed, because their potential opponents have nearly identical strengths and Boston will have home ice advantage, having earned 107 regular season points to the 101 and 99 of San Jose and St. Louis. That Western Conference series resumes tonight.

2019-05-16

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 16

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 1-2 SJS
CAR 0-3 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
BOS0.59295.858.1
SJS0.55168.927.5
STL0.55131.112.4
CAR0.5474.22.0


San Jose took a 2-1 lead with just a little bit of controversy with a goal off an apparent hand pass in overtime. Luckily it wasn't game 7, so that mistake may be forgotten by the time their series is over. Tonight, Boston tries to complete the sweep. If they do, they could finish a full week before the Western Conference champ, giving them an extra 7 days of rest and/or rust before the final.

2019-05-15

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 15

Boston over St. Louis

Round 3
STL 1-1 SJS
CAR 0-3 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
BOS0.59295.858.1
STL0.55151.920.7
SJS0.55148.119.2
CAR0.5474.22.1


Boston is up 3-0 and over 95% likely to make it to the final now. That series could end with the Western Conference finals at 2-1, giving a whole lot of rest to Boston. But, we won't get ahead of ourselves; Carolina could still come back and win 4 games in a row. Tonight, St. Louis and San Jose resume and break their 1-1 tie.

2019-05-14

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 14

Boston over St. Louis

Round 3
STL 1-1 SJS
CAR 0-2 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
BOS0.59285.551.8
STL0.55151.921.2
SJS0.55148.119.8
CAR0.54714.57.1


St. Louis tied the series, and now effectively have home ice advantage in a best of 5 series. That tips things just slightly in their favor, but still pretty close to a coin toss. Tonight, Boston and Carolina play game 3.

2019-05-13

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 13

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 0-1 SJS
CAR 0-2 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
BOS0.59285.551.8
SJS0.55165.727.1
STL0.55134.314.0
CAR0.54714.57.0


Boston won again, going up 6-0 before allowing 2 goals to make the final score not look so lopsided. But a win's a win, and they are up 2-0, giving them about a 6 in 7 chance of winning the series. Imagine Carolina's 1 in 7 as a little worse than rolling a single die once and needing a six to win. We'll have a game every day at least through Friday, longer if we avoid sweeps, so St. Louis and San Jose resume today.

2019-05-12

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 12

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 0-1 SJS
CAR 0-1 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
BOS0.59273.844.7
SJS0.55165.728.1
STL0.55134.314.4
CAR0.54726.212.7


San Jose beat St. Louis handily in game 1, which gives about a 2/3 chance of winning the series. Boston and Carolina resume today, and there's not much else to say.

2019-05-10

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 10

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 0-0 SJS
CAR 0-1 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
BOS0.59273.844.7
SJS0.55151.522.1
STL0.55148.520.4
CAR0.54726.212.8


Boston won game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals, and solidified their position as the most favored team. There's an off day today, with games resuming Saturday for the start of the Western Conference finals.

2019-05-09

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 9

Boston over San Jose

Round 3
STL 0-0 SJS
CAR 0-0 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthFinalsCup
BOS0.59261.437.2
SJS0.55151.522.9
STL0.55148.521.0
CAR0.54738.618.9


We're down to 4 teams, and the projections should quit violently moving back and forth, although I guess a back-and-forth series could result in just that.

I was messing around with my program today to investigate how low home ice would need to be in order to make St. Louis the favored team in the West. Their strength is just barely higher than San Jose, but I assume a 55% home ice advantage per game, thus the series favors San Jose at the moment. As it turns out, somewhere between 50.116% and 50.117% is where the home ice advantage flips the series to San Jose.

Even though we just finished one round, the next round starts today - no breaks! Boston takes on Carolina to start things off.

2019-05-08

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 8

Boston over St. Louis

Round 2
COL 3-3 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
BOS0.592100.061.437.8
STL0.551100.052.022.5
CAR0.547100.038.619.6
SJS0.55157.329.513.1
COL0.52842.718.57.1


With a win in the second overtime, St. Louis won game 7 and became the favorite to win the West, at least for today. San Jose would take that back with a win over Colorado tonight in their game 7. Either way, the conference finals will both be set after tonight.

2019-05-07

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 7

Boston over San Jose

Round 2
COL 3-3 SJS
DAL 3-3 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
BOS0.592100.061.438.5
CAR0.547100.038.620.1
SJS0.55157.331.213.8
STL0.55158.130.213.1
COL0.52842.719.77.6
DAL0.51941.918.96.9


Boston closed out their series against Columbus, a result no other team should have wanted based on my strength numbers. Tonight, St. Louis and Dallas play game 7. If St. Louis wins, they'll certainly be the favorite for at least a day, and I think Dallas would too, although their low strength might mean they don't quite make it, I haven't run the numbers.

2019-05-06

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 6

Boston over San Jose

Round 2
COL 2-3 SJS
DAL 3-3 STL
CBJ 2-3 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
BOS0.59279.048.630.2
CAR0.547100.041.021.0
SJS0.55177.542.219.4
STL0.55158.129.213.1
DAL0.51941.918.26.9
CBJ0.55321.010.45.4
COL0.52822.510.44.1


St. Louis won to tie their series, but San Jose is still favored for now, so the projection stays stable for once. That seems to be rare this year.

Both Boston and San Jose could win their way to the third round tonight, unless Columbus or Colorado can tie the series and force a game 7.

2019-05-05

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 5

Boston over San Jose

Round 2
COL 2-3 SJS
DAL 3-2 STL
CBJ 2-3 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
BOS0.59279.048.630.7
CAR0.547100.041.021.3
SJS0.55177.543.820.1
DAL0.51972.031.311.8
STL0.55128.014.16.3
CBJ0.55321.010.45.5
COL0.52822.510.94.3


Boston and San Jose both won to take their series to 3-2, and to both take over the lead in their conferences, so the projection is completely upended today. There's just one game today, as St. Louis goes to Dallas to try to avoid elimination.

2019-05-04

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 4

Carolina over Dallas

Round 2
COL 2-2 SJS
DAL 3-2 STL
CBJ 2-2 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
CAR0.547100.043.423.0
BOS0.59258.435.922.9
SJS0.55156.031.615.0
DAL0.51972.032.612.6
CBJ0.55341.620.711.1
COL0.52844.021.38.6
STL0.55128.014.66.7


With a a win over St. Louis giving them a 3-2 lead, Dallas is just barely favored to move on and win the West, slightly ahead of San Jose who is currently tied 2-2 with Colorado. Carolina has advanced to the Eastern Conference final, and so is currently the favorite, with Boston and Columbus also tied at 2. Each of those 2-2 series will play today and also have at least one more game Monday.

2019-05-03

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, May 3

San Jose over Carolina

Round 2
COL 2-2 SJS
DAL 2-2 STL
CBJ 2-2 BOS
CAR 3-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
BOS0.59258.435.622.4
CAR0.54792.440.120.9
SJS0.55156.030.514.4
STL0.55157.229.813.7
CBJ0.55341.620.510.7
COL0.52844.020.48.2
DAL0.51942.819.37.5
NYI0.5757.63.82.2


3 of the 4 series are now tied at 2-2, making them near tossups. Carolina has a chance to finish a sweep against New York tonight and earn plenty of extra rest before the conference final. Dallas and St. Louis will break their 2-2 tie in the late game, but obviously have at least one more game Sunday.