2016-05-27

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 27

Pittsburgh over San Jose

Stanley Cup Finals
SJS 0-0 PIT

Conference Finals
TBL 3-3 PIT
SJS 4-2 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 2-4 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthCup
PIT0.59357.0
SJS0.56843.0

Pittsburgh held off Tampa Bay, and now they've advanced to the finals to face San Jose. With home ice, I have them with a 57% chance of winning the cup, so not a complete walkover. If home ice were reversed, they'd still be favored at 53.9%, and if you think home ice is meaningless, which is nearly has been during these playoffs, they're still 55.5% likely to be the winners.

2016-05-26

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 26

Pittsburgh over San Jose

Conference Finals
TBL 3-3 PIT
SJS 4-2 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 2-4 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthFinalsCup
SJS0.568100.047.3
PIT0.59358.333.2
TBL0.56141.719.5

The Blues had a great season, and advanced further than they have in 30 years, having last made it to game 7 of the conference finals in 1986. The Sharks are now the first team in the finals. Their opponent will be determined tonight in Pittsburgh, a game I have as 58.3% likely to go to the Penguins.

Also, yesterday the header of my projection said Pittsburgh over Tampa Bay, something that clearly won't be the result of the cup finals. It should have been San Jose.

2016-05-25

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 25

Pittsburgh over Tampa Bay

Conference Finals
TBL 3-3 PIT
SJS 3-2 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 2-4 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthFinalsCup
SJS0.56876.736.3
PIT0.59358.333.2
TBL0.56141.719.8
STL0.55423.310.7

My projection hasn't been very stable this year, because each series keeps flip flopping back and forth. Pittsburgh tied their series and will be 58.3% likely to win Game 7 tomorrow. Tonight St. Louis will have to win in San Jose to force a Game 7 back home. They've been alternately dominant and walked over in this series, so pretty much anything could happen, but I have them with just a 43.5% chance of winning tonight.

2016-05-24

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 24

San Jose over Tampa Bay

Conference Finals
TBL 3-2 PIT
SJS 3-2 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 2-4 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthFinalsCup
SJS0.56876.738.7
TBL0.56171.934.1
PIT0.59328.116.0
STL0.55423.311.2

St. Louis lost 6-3, but it was 4-3 when they pulled the goalie, so the game was a bit closer than it looks in the scorebook. Still, a loss is a loss, and they'll have to win the next two to advance to the finals. I've got them down to just an 11.2% chance of winning the cup. I suppose I should root for Pittsburgh tonight, so the Eastern Conference champion won't have a huge rest advantage should St. Louis pull out a game 7 win.

2016-05-23

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 23

St. Louis over Tampa Bay

Conference Finals
TBL 3-2 PIT
SJS 2-2 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 2-4 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthFinalsCup
TBL0.56171.934.7
SJS0.56849.725.0
STL0.55450.324.2
PIT0.59328.116.1

With a road win in Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay is now the overall favorite to win the Cup. But, they won't be favored against either Western conference team, so my "Winner vs Loser" projection has the 3rd most likely team as the winner, because that's the most likely matchup at this point. But, if I were simply picking the team most likely to win, it would be Tampa Bay.

Tonight's game will see one of the Western Conference teams take a 3-2 lead, one win from making it to the finals.

2016-05-22

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 22

Pittsburgh over St. Louis

Conference Finals
TBL 2-2 PIT
SJS 2-2 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 2-4 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59357.432.8
SJS0.56849.723.5
STL0.55450.323.2
TBL0.56142.620.6

The last 8 games have just reduced the 7-game series to best-of-3 series, although now the Blues have a slight advantage over San Jose. That's because they now have home ice in 67% of games instead of just 57%. They showed last night that they still know how to score, putting up 6 goals against San Jose. At this point they have a real chance of setting the record for most playoff games in a single season, which stands at 26 by 4 different teams since the playoffs were expanded to 4 best-of-seven series. Only one of those teams won the cup.

Tonight the Eastern conference will untie their series in Pittsburgh, and I'll be rooting for the weaker-on-paper Lightning.

2016-05-21

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 21

Pittsburgh over San Jose

Conference Finals
TBL 2-2 PIT
SJS 2-1 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 2-4 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthFinalsCup
SJS0.56871.033.7
PIT0.59357.432.8
TBL0.56142.620.3
STL0.55429.013.3

I always feel the need to explain this situation, but maybe it's more obvious than I think. Despite San Jose being the most likely team to win the cup, the most likely winner-loser matchup is Pittsburgh over San Jose. That's because Pittsburgh is favored in the East, and would be favored over either Western Conference team. But, San Jose is much closer to advancing to the finals right now, because they are up 2-1 while the East is tied at 2 each.

Hopefully tonight both series will be tied at 2-2, as St. Louis tries to break their 2 game scoreless streak.

2016-05-20

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 20

Pittsburgh over San Jose

Conference Finals
TBL 1-2 PIT
SJS 2-1 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 2-4 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59373.642.0
SJS0.56871.032.5
STL0.55429.013.0
TBL0.56126.412.5

The Blues have now lost 2 games in a row, and look like they might not score another goal this postseason. They're not out yet though, with a 29% chance of winning the series. A game 4 win would bring it to a best of 3 with home ice advantage returning to St. Louis. Tonight Tampa Bay will try to even things up in Pittsburgh.

2016-05-19

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 19

Pittsburgh over San Jose

Conference Finals
TBL 1-2 PIT
SJS 1-1 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 2-4 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59373.642.0
SJS0.56854.625.0
STL0.55445.420.3
TBL0.56126.412.7

Pittsburgh won a road game in Tampa last night, and leads the series 2-1. I now have them at 42% likely to win the cup, and Tampa down to 12.7%, just over 1 in 8. Both Western conference teams took a slight hit too, since they're now slightly likelier to face a tougher opponent.

2016-05-18

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 18

Pittsburgh over San Jose

Conference Finals
TBL 1-1 PIT
SJS 1-1 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 2-4 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59354.331.0
SJS0.56854.626.1
TBL0.56145.722.0
STL0.55445.421.0

After 4 total games, both series are tied 1-1, and we've come full circle in the projections, back to the pre-round projection of Pittsburgh over San Jose. The home teams are slightly worse off, having given up home ice advantage, so Tampa is now up to third most likely to win the cup, and St. Louis drops to 4th.

Also for you eagle-eyes out there, my cup odds don't add up to 100.0 because of rounding.

2016-05-17

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 17

Pittsburgh over St. Louis

Conference Finals
TBL 1-1 PIT
SJS 0-1 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 2-4 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59354.331.0
STL0.55462.929.1
TBL0.56145.722.3
SJS0.56837.117.7

Pittsburgh is back in the driver's seat, although they've effectively lost their home ice advantage, with the series now a best-of-5 with up to 3 games in Tampa. St. Louis will try to keep theirs tonight in game 2 for the Western Conference.

2016-05-16

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 16

St. Louis over Tampa Bay

Conference Finals
TBL 1-0 PIT
SJS 0-1 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 2-4 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthFinalsCup
STL0.55462.929.7
TBL0.56159.428.9
PIT0.59340.623.2
SJS0.56837.118.2

There's nothing more tense in hockey than having a 1-goal lead with about 2 minutes to go, and the opposing team pulls their goalie. The Blues survived that last night and came away with a game 1 win.

With these games being so evenly matched, there are going to be quiet a few slight upsets, which then shuffle the teams I've sorted here by likelihood to win the Stanley Cup. St. Louis is on top for now, with a 29.7% chance of winning their first cup in history, but Tampa Bay is right behind them. Tonight the Eastern Conference finals will continue in Pittsburgh.

2016-05-14

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 14

Tampa Bay over San Jose

Conference Finals
TBL 1-0 PIT
SJS 0-0 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 2-4 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthFinalsCup
TBL0.56159.428.6
SJS0.56851.625.4
PIT0.59340.623.2
STL0.55448.422.8

St. Louis went from the 3rd most likely to least likely team to win the Stanley Cup, even though their chances actually went up a bit. That's because the previously lowest team, Tampa Bay, is the team who won. So while their own chances went up, the chances for the West went up as well, as they are more likely to face a weaker team. Pittsburgh suffered all of the losses, of course. Now, I'm not sure these numbers will mean much as long as Tampa's involved, because they lost their top goaltender Ben Bishop last night - the only non-strategic reason I was rooting for them. For some reason there's an off day with no hockey today, and tomorrow St. Louis hosts San Jose to open the Western Conference finals.

2016-05-13

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 13

Pittsburgh over San Jose

Conference Finals
TBL 0-0 PIT
SJS 0-0 STL

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-4 SJS
PIT 2-4 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthFinalsCup
PIT0.59358.733.5
SJS0.56851.624.4
STL0.55448.422.2
TBL0.56141.319.9

I didn't get the opponent I wanted for the Conference Finals, as San Jose beat Nashville. Still, the Blues have an almost even chance against the Sharks by my numbers. I'll be rooting for Tampa in the East, not only to get a weaker opponent, but so that we can face Ben Bishop, former Blue and local St. Louis guy.

2016-05-12

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 12

Pittsburgh over St. Louis

Round 2
STL 4-3 DAL
NSH 3-3 SJS
PIT 2-4 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
PIT0.593100.058.734.4
STL0.554100.051.923.8
TBL0.561100.041.320.8
SJS0.56858.930.414.4
NSH0.52941.117.76.7

The Blues pulled out an impressive win to take the series over Dallas, and are currently the Western Conference favorite. that will change if San Jose wins tonight, but St. Louis would be favored over Nashville. Either way, they now have home ice advantage through the rest of their playoff run, for what it's worth.

2016-05-11

2016 Stanley Cup Projection, May 11

Pittsburgh over Dallas

Round 2
STL 3-3 DAL
NSH 3-3 SJS
PIT 2-4 WSH
NYI 1-4 TBL

Round 1
MIN 2-4 DAL
CHI 3-4 STL
NSH 4-3 ANA
SJS 4-1 LAK
NYI 4-2 FLA
DET 1-4 TBL
PHI 2-4 WSH
NYR 1-4 PIT


TeamStrengthRound 3FinalsCup
PIT0.593100.058.733.5
TBL0.561100.041.320.2
DAL0.57457.032.116.1
SJS0.56858.928.913.7
STL0.55443.022.310.2
NSH0.52941.116.76.3

Don't worry, you haven't missed my previous projections; this is the first day I'm posting them. I finally got an NHL-specific script written, and I thought, why not post my projections just like I do for baseball and football. Maybe I'll even add in the NBA next year. The only real difference for hockey is that I've decided to experiment with taking home ice advantage into account. Most places I read say 55% is a reasonable number for two evenly matched teams is reasonable, so that's what I used, and all future matchups consider the home team in each game of each series. That means that, while St. Louis and Dallas are reasonably closely matched, the extra home ice advantage pushes Dallas all the way up to a 57% likelihood of winning game 7 and the series tonight. I realize home ice has not been that strong of an advantage so far in this year's playoffs, but I'm willing to chalk that up to a small sample size for now.

2016-05-09

Fairfield Football Repack #9

I think I'm about done with these repacks, for two reasons. First, my local Target is running out, and the next closest Target's are just out of my way enough to be annoying. Next, finishing a set via random loose packs is provably hard, which is why good collation in full boxes is extremely helpful in finishing sets. At this point I'm much more likely to get a duplicate to trade, but I'll need a trading partner before I can consider that helpful. Maybe I'll write up a post on the math of random packs one of these days. If you just can't wait for me, read up on the Coupon Collector's Problem,

2013 Score
#68 Matthew Stafford
#116 Matt Cassel
#125 Chandler Jones
#220 London Fletcher
Airmail #252 Robert Griffin III
Franchise #298 Robert Griffin III
Future Franchise #307 DeMarco Murray
2013 Rookie #432 Tyler Bray
Two Matt's don't make a right, I always say. Nor do two RGIIIs for that matter. London Fletcher was one of my favorite Rams, and I guess for awhile I thought he was much older when he played in St. Louis, because I would just be surprised every year he was still in the league. Even today, he's only 40.

2013 Score
#4 Michael Floyd
#12 Tony Gonzalez
#173 Jared Cook
#264 Terrell Suggs
I got another (now former) Ram in Jared Cook. I'll probably follow the players who were St. Louis Rams and hope they do well on their new teams, but I'm not so sure about the team itself in a year or two when a large majority of the players are new to the team in LA, like Jared Goff. It'll be interesting to see who the last St. Louis Ram standing is, in both LA and the NFL as a whole.


2013 NFL Teenymates
Cleveland, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, New York
Green Bay and Tampa were new, so I now need just 3 Running Backs; Seattle, Buffalo, and Houston.

2014 NFL Teenymates
Buffalo, Cleveland, Baltimore, Dallas
Cleveland and Dallas were new in this group, bringing my list down to 7.

2013 NFL Teenymates puzzle

2013 puzzle progress
This puzzle is now dangerously close to finished, with just 3 spots to go. The middle two pieces are the rest of the Teenymates name, and the piece at the bottom is Pittsburgh.

2014 NFL Teenymates puzzle

2014 puzzle progress
New England and New Orleans were new to my puzzle, and are keeping that Miami piece from hanging off in the ether. Nearly complete puzzles are much easier to move around and scan.


NFL Teenymates
FiguresPuzzle Pieces
TeamQBRBWROL1234
STL01100100
SF01300110
SEA00000110
AZ01000110
GB01000210
CHI02100130
MIN01400140
DET01100230
TB01100100
ATL02100100
NO01200110
CAR11100210
DAL01100130
NYG02400120
WAS01100110
PHI02100200
TeamQBRBWROL1234
NE01100110
NYJ02300220
BUF20300110
MIA01100110
SD11100110
OAK12100110
DEN11100200
KC01000200
IND01100130
HOU00000100
JAC02000140
TEN02200110
PIT02200020
CIN01000210
CLE02100110
BAL01300110
PieceQBRBWROL1234
Tee0100
nyM0010
ates0010

RB Special: Glow-in-the-Dark
WR Special: Monster (x2), Orange

2016-05-07

eBay Wins #227

Here's another random penny basketball card, I picked up, and it's an insert no less. I really like Fleer Ultra's baseball designs, and this basketball insert set looks pretty good too. The highlighted circle is slightly embossed, a hallmark of late 90s cards.

1996-97 Fleer Ultra - All-Rookies #8 Kerry Kittles
As I've said before, the NBA definitely gets the short end of the stick when it comes to my sports fandom. There's only so much time to watch games, after all. If you gave me a "real or fake" test with some NBA players names and put Kerry Kittles in there, I might well have said fake. But I looked him up, and he had a 9 year NBA career. I'd certainly recognize any baseball player who played that long during my sports-watching lifetime, and probably any football or hockey player too. I'd have assumed that the reason for my lack of recognition was that the Nets never made the finals while he was on the team, but they actually did two seasons in a row, 2001-02 and 2002-03. I've just got a blind spot for basketball I guess.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought4051
Total Spent$56.18
Per Card1.387 cents
Change0 cents

2016-05-05

Fairfield Football Repack #8

With my 8th repack, and each one containing 4 figurines from series 2 and 3 of Teenymates, I've now got enough that I could complete both sets if I could arrange the right 1-for-1 (or n-for-n) trades.

2013 Score
#46 Geno Atkins
#81 Jermichael Finley
#142 Andre Brown
Airmail #221 John Skelton
Franchise #296 Josh Freeman
Future Franchise #330 Alfred Morris
2013 Rookie #412 Phillip Thomas
2013 Rookie Blue Parallel #424 Star Lotulelei

2013 Score
#2 Larry Fitzgerald
#114 Davone Bess
#175 Chris Givens
#186 Colin Kaepernick

2013 NFL Teenymates
Atlanta, Oakland, Baltimore, St. Louis
The Rams and Ravens were two new figurines for my collection, and I have 5 running backs to go.

2014 NFL Teenymates
New Orleans, Minnesota, New York Giants, Tennessee
I got Minnesota and the Giants in the last repack, and now I have 4 of each. Take my Vikings, please! The Saints and Titans were doubles, too, so I still need 9 wide receivers.

2013 NFL Teenymates puzzle
All 4 of these were new pieces.

2014 NFL Teenymates puzzle
No new pieces in the 2014 puzzle.

2013 puzzle progress
I need just 5 more pieces to complete the 2013 puzzle.

NFL Teenymates
FiguresPuzzle Pieces
TeamQBRBWROL1234
STL01100100
SF01300110
SEA00000110
AZ01000110
GB00000210
CHI02100130
MIN01400140
DET01100220
TB00100100
ATL02100100
NO01200100
CAR11100210
DAL01000130
NYG01400120
WAS01100110
PHI02100200
TeamQBRBWROL1234
NE01100000
NYJ02300120
BUF20200110
MIA01100010
SD11100110
OAK12100110
DEN11100100
KC01000200
IND01100120
HOU00000100
JAC02000140
TEN02200110
PIT02200020
CIN01000210
CLE01000110
BAL01200110
PieceQBRBWROL1234
Tee0100
nyM0010
ates0010

RB Special: Glow-in-the-Dark
WR Special: Monster (x2), Orange

2016-05-03

eBay Wins #226

Today's eBay lot is some brightly bordered 1988 Score.

1988 Score
#78 Will Clark
#334 Billy Jo Robidoux
#406 Ken Howell
#473 Darren Daulton
#511 Steve Ontiveros
#590 Harold Baines
#591 Bill Buckner
#593 Rick Manning

Steve Lake is shown in uniform for the Cardinals here. The other two Cardinals today are Will Clark and Les Lancaster, both of whom finished their careers in St. Louis.

1988 Score
#596 Steve Lake
#598 Ross Jones
#602 Les Lancaster
#603 Ozzie Guillen
#604 Tony Bernazard
#657 Mike Schmidt
These cards were again out of my half-penny box, so I've added 7 cents to my total eBay bargain purchases.


eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought4050
Total Spent$56.17
Per Card1.387 cents
Change-0.003 cents

2016-05-01

Fairfield Football Repack #7

At 4 figurines per series per pack, 7 packs gives me 28 from each series. As there are only 32 teams, and the insert figurines are somewhat rare, I'm going to start seeing more and more duplicates.

2013 Score
#48 Josh Gordon
#86 J.J. Watt
#161 LeSean McCoy
#162 Bryce Brown
Airmail #238 Christian Ponder
Franchise #283 Cameron Wake
Future Franchise #328 Doug Martin
2013 Rookie #401 Markus Wheaton
Hot Rookies #9 Tyler Wilson

2013 Score
#14 Joe Flacco
#109 Brian Hartline
#153 Denarius Moore
I always gloss over the cards because they're not why I buy the repack, but I am sort of growing to like this set. Plus I have so much of it now, I almost want to complete it just because.

2013 NFL Teenymates
Cleveland, New York Giants, Oakland, Atlanta
How's this for a plot twist: All 4 running backs are new, leaving me just 7 to get.

2014 NFL Teenymates
New York Jets, Minnesota, New York Giants, San Francisco
But all 4 wide receivers are not. In fact, they're each the third of their respective teams. I still need 9 of these.


2013 NFL Teenymates puzzle
I've pretty much decided the packs aren't random, but are just "assorted", because all 4 of these pieces were new as well...


2014 NFL Teenymates puzzle
While these 4 were also my third copy of each piece. Since there are two packs of each series in each box, and I haven't tracked them at the pack level, I don't know this for sure, but it certainly appears there are a limited number of combinations of two figures and two puzzle pieces that can occur in packs, at least for Series 2 and 3

2013 puzzle progress
I'm not going to show 2014, because it looks just like it did last time. 2013 is down to just 9 pieces left, while 2014 has 10 left still.

I just realized I had some errant values in the series 4 puzzle pieces column, and they should have been in series 3, so I've shifted those over. I should just remove series 4 entirely, but that's kind of a pain to do in html, so it'll stay for now.

NFL Teenymates
FiguresPuzzle Pieces
TeamQBRBWROL1234
STL/LA00100100
SF01300110
SEA00000110
AZ01000110
GB00000210
CHI02100130
MIN01300130
DET01100220
TB00100000
ATL01100000
NO01100100
CAR11100210
DAL01000130
NYG01300110
WAS01100010
PHI02100200
TeamQBRBWROL1234
NE01100000
NYJ02300110
BUF20200110
MIA01100010
SD11100110
OAK11100110
DEN11100100
KC01000200
IND01100120
HOU00000100
JAC02000130
TEN02100110
PIT02200020
CIN01000210
CLE01000110
BAL00200010
PieceQBRBWROL1234
Tee0100
nyM0010
ates0010

RB Special: Glow-in-the-Dark
WR Special: Monster (x2), Orange

2016-04-29

eBay Wins #225

I'm not a huge basketball collector, partially because I've never really had a home team, but I have a few cards here and there. As a baseball collector, I especially like the cards that mimic the baseball sets from the same year and manufacturer. I can tell just by looking that this card has the same design as 1995 Topps. I wasn't sure if that made it a 94-95 or 95-96 though.

1994-95 Topps #56 Glen Rice
Most of my NBA-watching centered around Michael Jordan, so in my mind this is framed as Jordan's first comeback season, and I don't really have the near-encyclopedic knowledge of every other team like I sometimes seem to in baseball. For example, I knew Glen Rice played for the Hornets, but I didn't know he had several years with the Miami Heat first.


eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought4036
Total Spent$56.10
Per Card1.39 cents
Change0 cents

2016-04-25

2016 Museum Collection Contest

Sport Card Collectors is holding a contest for a really nice dual-relic-and-autograph numbered to 25 from 2016 Museum Collection. Just go comment with your favorite Topps product for a chance to win.

2016 Topps Museum Collection - Signature Swatches
#SSD-ZW Zach Wheeler #01/25

Museum Collection is one of those sets for which I never even make any effort to find the Cardinals, because the cards are so expensive, at $9/card when purchasing a full box. The set looks awesome, and if money were no object I'd buy box after box of it. I should really look into getting the Cardinals base cards secondhand though. Since there are a few relics and autographs like this one in each box, the base cards can certainly be had for a much lower price. A quick check of COMC shows I could get all 6 Cardinals from 2015 for under $7 right now. But back to the topic at hand, get one of the crazy relic/auto cards from the set by entering the contest here.

2016-04-23

eBay Wins #224

Today I've got the end of my 1988 Donruss half-penny pile, which is 72 more cards. 

1988 Donruss
#454 Terry Pendleton
#455 Dave Meads
#460 Jay Aldrich
#464 Tim Crews
#467 Steve Ontiveros (x2)
#472 Dave Stewart
#475 Dave Anderson
#484 Mike Bielecki
#488 Jim Sundberg
I remember as a new baseball fan, my dad telling me Terry Pendleton used to be on the Cardinals. This would have been around 1992, and I could barely believe it. I knew he played for the Braves, and in my mind it just seemed like players were always on the same team. Of course I'd quickly encounter more and more players that joined or left the Cardinals.

1988 Donruss
#499 Tracy Woodson
#501 Ken Schrom
#502 Angel Salazar
#503 Eric Plunk
#506 Geno Petralli
#508 Robbie Wine (x2)
#511 Mark Grant
#513 Jeff Blauser
#514 Bob Walk
Tracy Woodson finished his career in St. Louis in 1992 and 1993, after being out of the majors from 1990-1991. According to my tags, this is my first Tracy Woodson card posted.

1988 Donruss
#515 Craig Lefferts (x2)
#516 Manny Trillo
#517 Jerry Reed
#518 Rick Leach
#525 Jeff Hamilton
#528 Greg Cadaret
#534 Eric Nolte
#537 Charlie Puleo (x2)
#538 Tom Prince
No Cardinals in this bunch, and barely any names I recognize.

1988 Donruss
#540 Jim Lindeman
#546 Mike Devereaux (x2)
#548 Jose Rijo
#552 Dave LaPoint
#554 Rocky Childress (x2)
#555 Wally Ritchie
#558 Jeff Robinson (x3)
#560 Ted Simmons
#562 Keith Miller
Apparently this is my first Jim Lindeman card posted too. Dave LaPoint was another Cardinal, and Ted Simmons is here in his final season, his 21st, after his first 13 were in St. Louis.

1988 Donruss
#571 Pete Smith
#572 Darnell Coles (x2)
#575 Dennis Rasmussen
#576 Steve Jeltz
#580 Ron Hassey
#587 Tim Belcher
#589 Melido Perez
#590 Rick Honeycutt
#592 Curt Wilkerson
I really didn't remember Darnell Coles playing for the Cardinals in 1995, but he did, in 63 games. I do remember Rick Honeycutt, as one of Tony La Russa's favorites that was brought over from the A's.

1988 Donruss
#595 Storm Davis
#598 Alejandro Pena
#604 Tom Newell (x2)
#606 Jim Gott (x2)
#607 Harry Spilman
#610 Mickey Brantley
#611 Jose Nunez
#616 Bobby Meacham

1988 Donruss
#618 Gene Garber
#620 Randy Myers
#622 Domingo Ramos
#623 Ed Romero
#626 Pat Perry
#627 Andres Thomas
#643 Keith Hughes
#654 Ron Gant
Pat Perry and Ron Gant finish off this post for Cardinals. Perry was another Cardinal that wore my favorite number, 37.

With the duplicates I didn't scan, there was a total of 72 cards in this post. As they were from my half-cent box, they cost me 36 cents, and brought my average down another .016 cents per card. My total eBay bargain cards is now over 4000.


eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought4035
Total Spent$56.09
Per Card1.39 cents
Change-0.016 cents

2016-04-21

Saturday Night at the Mall Autograph

I always assume most of the country is like the St. Louis region, which I've lived in for my whole life. Routinely, I find out things I find normal are actually unique to our region. For example, apparently we're in the minority of the country in using the name Soda, whereas many more people use Pop or Coke, which sound weird when I hear them.

One of those things that's been "the way things are" in this area (and maybe yours, I don't know) for many years is that teens and preteens hang out at the mall on Fridays and/or Saturdays. It's from about whatever age the parents are comfortable dropping them off alone for a few hours, until around driving age. As a result, not only are our malls packed with extra shoppers on those evenings, they are packed with herds of kids. As a result, I generally avoid going to the mall on those evenings if I can, preferring to go during the day Saturday if there's really something I need there. But, the Cardinals had a day game Saturday, and one of the local memorabilia stores held a signing at 6:30pm. I decided to brave the crowds and meet Randal Grichuk

Randal Grichuk 15
He was a few minutes late (totally understandable and expected on a game day), and I bought my ticket as a walk-up so my line number was pretty high, so I had plenty of time to people watch in line. I saw kids dressed as anime characters complete with brightly colored wigs, teens dressed for the prom, and plenty of people who were craning their necks around to try to see who we were all waiting for. I always seem to have an inordinate number of strangers approach me in life, and keeping with tradition, for some reason I was the one people would ask "who's here?". Some seemed to have no idea who I was talking about when I said Randal Grichuk, and said "ah, cool" and moved on. My favorite one of those was a guy wearing this shirt:

Bill Murray
Once Grichuk arrived, the line moved pretty quickly. I got a ball signed, as you can see above. A young girl in front of me was having a photo signed, which showed him and her at a previous signing. I was imagining how I'd frame and display a set of photos like that to really show off the inception-like nature. For now, though, I'll stick with my baseball collection I suppose.




2016-04-19

eBay Wins #223

Continuing with 1988 Donruss, I've got 122 more cards today from my half-cent box. Only 90 are unique. so again I haven't scanned the duplicates and the one triplicate. The Cardinals were a little less dense in this bunch, allowing me to post more before running out of tag space.

1988 Donruss
#233 Dick Schofield (x2)
#234 Jose Oquendo
#235 Bill Doran
#236 Milt Thompson (x2)
#238 Bobby Bonilla
#243 Phil Bradley (x2)
#253 Bob Welch
#257 Mitch Webster (x2)
#258 Brian Downing
Although, there are 3 Cardinals in this first scan; Jose Oquendo, obviously, along with Milt Thompson and Bobby Bonilla.

1988 Donruss
#260 Carlton Fisk
#261 Billy Hatcher
#264 Randy Ready (x2)
#265 Kurt Stillwell (x2)
#266 David Palmer
#267 Mike Diaz
#268 Rob Thompson
#270 Lee Guetterman
#278 Pedro Guerrero
Pedro Guerrero is another former Cardinal. I remember having this specific card, or at least seeing it, when I was very young, and thinking he must be wearing football pads for some reason. Now, I'm just assuming his arms are slightly raised, like maybe he's leaning against the batting cage.

1988 Donruss
#280 Kevin Seitzer (x2)
#281 Mike Davis (x2)
#283 Devon White
#284 Pete O'Brien
#286 Kevin Bass
#287 Carmelo Martinez
#288 Juan Samuel
#289 Kal Daniels (x2)
#290 Albert Hall (x2)

1988 Donruss
#291 Andy Van Slyke
#299 Mickey Hatcher
#304 Pete Incaviglia
#306 Bill Long
#309 Darren Daulton (x2)
#310 Tracy Jones (x2)
#312 Mike LaValliere (x3)
#314 Glenn Hubbard
#320 Kent Hrbek
Andy Van Slyke makes another appearance in this set, along with the catcher he was traded with, Mike LaValliere, whose card had 3 copies in my bargain box.

1988 Donruss
#325 Jeff Dedmon (x2)
#327 Jeffrey Leonard (x2)
#332 Larry Anderson
#333 Jack Howell
#334 Ken Williams
#335 Bryn Smith
#339 Mike Greenwell
#340 Claudell Washington (x2)
#341 Jose Gonzalez (x2)
I only know Bryn Smith as a Cardinal from the several cards I've had of him for a long time showing him in a Cardinals uniform, but I don't really remember him as an active player.

1988 Donruss
#342 Mel Hall
#344 Tony Bernazard
#348 Thad Bosley
#352 John Shelby
#356 Gus Polidor
#358 Danny Darwin (x2)
#359 Lance Parrish
#360 James Steels
#361 Al Pedrique
Al Pedrique would be an important part of a mini collection of mine if I ever had the time to put it together. He was the NL All Star at SS in RBI Baseball, because Ozzie Smith was already on the Cardinals. He wasn't actually an All-Star at all during his career, so I'm not sure why he was chosen.

1988 Donruss
#362 Mike Aldrete
#364 Len Dykstra
#365 Luis Quinones
#366 Jim Presley
#367 Lloyd Moseby
#371 Dave Schmidt
#372 Mark Clear
#373 Dave Bergman (x2)
#374 Charles Hudson (x2)
Mike Aldrete is another case, like Carney Lansford in the last post, of a player who would one day put on the Cardinal uniform, but never actually played for the team. He was a bench coach from 2012-2014.

1988 Donruss
#375 Calvin Schiraldi
#376 Alex Trevino (x2)
#379 Mike Gallego
#385 Don Carman
#389 Rick Mahler (x2)
#390 Mike Dunne (x2)
#402 Brian Holton
#405 Dwayne Murphy (x2)
#406 Jeff Parrett
Mike Gallego and Jeff Parrett both came to the Cardinals later in their careers, oddly enough right as the Cardinals started getting good again.

1988 Donruss
#410 Dave Smith (x2)
#413 Nick Esasky
#414 Damaso Garcia
#415 Brian Fisher (x2)
#423 Matt Young
#424 Steve Balboni (x2)
#425 Luis Polonia (x2)
#431 Gerald Young
#432 Rick Schu
Gerald Young was briefly a Cardinal in 1994, brief enough I've apparently never posted one of his cards before.

1988 Donruss
#435 John Cangelosi
#437 Gerald Perry (x2)
#441 Greg Gagne
#442 Jesse Barfield
#445 Ed Nunez
#448 Rafael Ramirez (x2)
#449 John Smiley
#450 Atlee Hammaker (x2)
#451 Lance McCullers
And we finish with Gerald Perry, the player who caused me to learn what a platoon was, and to realize you can't play every "good" player every day, but it's good to have a serviceable backup. As I recall he was used pretty often as a pinch hitter, and would sub in at first base from time to time.

Those 122 cards cost me 61 cents, bringing my bargain hunting average down just a little more again. I'm nearing 1.4 cents per card, and also nearing 4000 total cards.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought3963
Total Spent$55.73
Per Card1.406 cents
Change-0.029 cents