2017-01-15

Superbowl LI Projection, Divisional Saturday

New England over Atlanta

It seems to happen almost every year, and I can't let a Divisional Saturday post go by without pointing it out, so I'll point it out again. Atlanta is favored in the NFC only because they have currently advanced one round further than Dallas and Green Bay. Dallas is the stronger team, but has to beat Green Bay to get to play Atlanta. Thus, at the moment, Atlanta is the most likely team to make the Superbowl out of the NFC.

The AFC has no such issue, as its best team played yesterday. The game was surprisingly close for the first half and beyond. I think most people expected New England to win about 102-1 (yes you can score 1 in the NFL now, as long as the other team scores 6). After a few first half turnovers, I was starting to think Houston might be able to hang close enough and win it on a last-second score, but New England pulled away and will host the AFC championship next week. With that win, New England crossed the 50% mark for their title chances, and they're over 74% likely to make the Superbowl. With the remaining AFC teams pretty evenly matched, that won't change by much after today.

Here's who I'm rooting for Sunday:

Green Bay at Dallas:
Dallas would host Atlanta, or Green Bay would go to Atlanta. I sort of like both teams, but I think I'll root for Green Bay this time.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City:
I'll be rooting for the winner of this one against New England, but this is a tough game for me to pick a favorite. I've sort of adopted the Steelers since a pal of mine is a big fan, but the Chiefs were the team I watched before the Rams came to St. Louis, and perhaps now logically my "home" team again. Also they were never really hated rivals to the Rams, only playing once every 4 years in the regular season. I'll root for the Chiefs today, if nothing else because my numbers say they have just a little bit better of a chance of beating New England.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE14-20.845++++++++74.3452.39
ATL11-50.701++++++++52.8619.33
DAL13-30.722++++++65.3134.3113.32
KC12-40.661++++++51.8513.666.32
PIT11-50.645++++++48.1512.005.33
GB10-60.580++++++34.6912.843.31
SEA10-5-10.640++++++---
ARI7-8-10.606------
DEN9-70.585------
PHI7-90.577------
NYG11-50.565-++----
OAK12-40.558-++----
BAL8-80.549------
MIN8-80.547------
BUF7-90.540------
IND8-80.535------
WAS8-7-10.525------
NO7-90.524------
CIN6-9-10.523------
TEN9-70.506------
SD5-110.477------
DET9-70.475-++----
TB9-70.469------
MIA10-60.466-++----
CAR6-100.436------
HOU9-70.381++++++---
JAC3-130.335------
CHI3-130.255------
NYJ5-110.234------
SF2-140.211------
CLE1-150.167------
LA4-120.156------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 40% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)
First to 45% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 17, Final)
First to 50% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Divisional Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: New England (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: Dallas (Week 16, Saturday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 12, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Saturday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 17, Final] New England over Dallas
[Wildcard Saturday] New England over Dallas
[Wildcard Sunday] New England over Dallas

2017-01-13

Bowl Pick 'Em Contest Winnings, Part XXXII

College football will be here again before we know it IS HERE IS OVER, so I've got to get my prize from last season's Bowl Pick 'Em contest at Cards on Cards posted! My prize for a second place tie was a very generously sized box of cards, so I felt a bit overwhelmed even sorting through them. I finally sorted them out by player, and, as usual, I'll plan to post them all eventually, but I might quit halfway through, we'll see.

Part I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X
XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII XVIII XIX XX
XXI XXII XXIII XXIV XXV XXVI XXVII XXVIII XXIX XXX XXXI

Like Homer Simpson once said...
Lisa, you can't go this far and then not go further.
So I intend to finish out this prize package!

1994 Pinnacle #425 Tripp Cromer
1994 Upper Deck #113 Tripp Cromer
1996 Pacific #215 Scott Cooper
1996 Score #448 Mark Petkovsek
1996 Topps Stadium Club #13 Tom Henke
1996 Upper Deck Collector's Choice #287 Tripp Cromer
1996 Upper Deck Collector's Choice #693 John Mabry
2015 Opening Day - Stadium Scenes #STA-RG Busch Stadium by Robert Grunbaum
We're getting deep into the weeds now, with some players who only played a handful of seasons or partial seasons, like Tripp Cromer. We seem to get a lot of guys with odd names, but maybe it's no more than our fair share. Tripp actually played in LA, though less than 40 games over 2 seasons, and Houston in 2000 and 3 final games in 2003 after 2 years out of the majors. Mark Petkovsek spent 5 years with the Cardinals, but bookended his 11-year career on each end with a year in Texas. Then there's Scott Cooper and Tom Henke, probably best known for playing on other teams, and John Mabry, who I have to keep reminding myself is still on the Cardinals coaching staff. He's kind of quiet.

Finally, there's the card from Opening Day's Stadium Scenes set, which features contest winning photos. I'm no artist of any sort, and especially not a photographer, but I think that's a pretty bland photo of Busch Stadium, so I don't know how it won. Maybe if I was the owner of the Millennium Hotel, which is that big round building in the center of this photo's focus, I'd be pleased. Or maybe I wouldn't be, since it closed in 2014. There's a sliver of the Arch, some opposing players (Dodgers), and a good clear view of the stadium's lesser dot-matrix style scoreboard, with a welcome message for a random group performing the national anthem that day. Maybe the photo started off better and was cropped oddly to fit on a vertical card, but the result just looks like something anyone could have taken from that seat.

That was a rather negative rant, but the card just hit me funny and it feels good to get out the poison pen now and then. Let's end with something happy.

♪ Where is my happy ending ♪ ♪ Where have all the cowboys gone? ♪

Close enough.

2017-01-11

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Final

Well this is a little unsatisfying. Clemson beat Alabama in a back and forth game, at least toward the end. But, thanks to a slight strength of schedule difference and their identical records, the result of my algorithm is Alabama still on top. Clemson's opponents won 125/195 games, and Alabama's won 126/196. That's not the only thing that comes into play, but it starts Alabama at #1 for the part of my algorithm that reranks repeatedly based on opponents' ranks until a stable ranking emerges.

In the past I've said that the playoff system practically guarantees I'll rate the champion #1, but I've realized that's not necessarily the case, especially if a very strong team with a stronger record ends up losing, like what happened this year. The top team that loses still gets a very good strength of schedule boost by playing 1 or 2 top-4 teams, so a single loss may not knock them out of the #1 spot, again, as it didn't this year. My rankings mostly tracked with the playoff committee again this year, except for that pesky non-power-conference Western Michigan I'd have put at #3 when the playoff began.

Alabama and Clemson start their quest for 3 consecutive title matchups in less than 8 months.


1Alabama14-1
2Clemson14-1
3Western Michigan13-1
4Washington12-2
5Ohio State11-2
6Oklahoma11-2
7Wisconsin11-3
8Penn State11-3
9Florida State10-3
10South Florida11-2
11Western Kentucky11-3
12San Diego State11-3
13USC10-3
14Michigan10-3
15West Virginia10-3
16Oklahoma State10-3
17Colorado10-4
18Boise State10-3
19Virginia Tech10-4
20Stanford10-3
21Appalachian State10-3
22Tennessee9-4
23Tulsa10-3
24Temple10-4
25Air Force10-3
26Florida9-4
27Georgia Tech9-4
28Troy10-3
29Miami9-4
30Old Dominion10-3
31Navy9-5
32LSU8-4
33Louisville9-4
34Nebraska9-4
35Utah9-4
36Minnesota9-4
37Kansas State9-4
38Houston9-4
39Toledo9-4
40North Carolina8-5
41BYU9-4
42Auburn8-5
43Idaho9-4
44Pittsburgh8-5
45Georgia8-5
46Washington State8-5
47New Mexico9-4
48Texas A&M8-5
49Louisiana Tech9-5
50Iowa8-5
51Wyoming8-6
52Memphis8-5
53Arkansas State8-5
54NC State7-6
55Arkansas7-6
56Colorado State7-6
57Northwestern7-6
58Kentucky7-6
59Middle Tennessee8-5
60Wake Forest7-6
61Ohio8-6
62Boston College7-6
63Army8-5
64Vanderbilt6-7
65Baylor7-6
66Eastern Michigan7-6
67Southern Mississippi7-6
68Hawai'i7-7
69Mississippi State6-7
70TCU6-7
71Ole Miss5-7
72South Carolina6-7
73UCF6-7
74Indiana6-7
75Louisiana Lafayette6-7
76South Alabama6-7
77Texas San Antonio6-7
78Maryland6-7
79California5-7
80Central Michigan6-7
81SMU5-7
82Arizona State5-7
83Miami (OH)6-7
84Texas Tech5-7
85Georgia Southern5-7
86Northern Illinois5-7
87Texas5-7
88Duke4-8
89Syracuse4-8
90North Texas5-8
91Missouri4-8
92Akron5-7
93UCLA4-8
94Oregon4-8
95Oregon State4-8
96Notre Dame4-8
97Louisiana Monroe4-8
98Tulane4-8
99Nevada5-7
100Cincinnati4-8
101Bowling Green4-8
102San Jose State4-8
103Arizona3-9
104UNLV4-8
105Utah State3-9
106Charlotte4-8
107Florida Intl4-8
108UTEP4-8
109New Mexico State3-9
110Illinois3-9
111Ball State4-8
112Iowa State3-9
113East Carolina3-9
114Georgia State3-9
115Michigan State3-9
116Purdue3-9
117Connecticut3-9
118Kent State3-9
119Rice3-9
120Marshall3-9
121Virginia2-10
122Florida Atlantic3-9
123Massachusetts2-10
124Rutgers2-10
125Kansas2-10
126Texas State2-10
127Buffalo2-10
128Fresno State1-11

2016 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0, Except Michigan and California
Week 2 Texas
Week 3 Texas A&M
Week 4 Texas A&M
Week 5 Tennessee
Week 6 Texas A&M
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Alabama
Week 10 Alabama
Week 11 Alabama
Week 12 Alabama
Week 13 Alabama
Week 14 Alabama
Week 15 Alabama
Week 16 Alabama
Week 17 Alabama
Week 18 Alabama
Week 19 Alabama

2017-01-09

Superbowl LI Projection, Wildcard Sunday

New England over Dallas

I rooted for the favorites and the won both games, so I've got to be happy with Sunday's results. Pittsburgh took down Miami with ease, and Green Bay eventually took over the game from the Giants. The last time all 4 home teams won in the Wildcard round was the 2011-2012 playoffs, so 5 years ago. We've also had 3 consecutive seasons of both #1 seeds making it to the Superbowl. Will we have a perfect chalk bracket this year? There's never been one in the 12-playoff-team era (since the 1990 season), or the 10-team era (1978-1989 seasons, including 1982 in which there were 16 teams due to a strike), or the 8-team seeded era (1975-1977 seasons). Before that, there weren't really seeds, since the home teams rotated from year to year

Here's who I'm rooting for Saturday:

Seattle at Atlanta:
I entered a contest and picked New England over Atlanta, so I feel like I should root for Atlanta in this one. I think I'll go against the numbers just barely and stick with Seattle, though.

Houston at New England:
Again, the contest dictates New England, but Houston would sure throw a wrench into everyone's expectations. I have them just over 10% likely to win this game, and about 175:1 odds to win the Superbowl. I'm sure they won't, but I'll root for Houston to upset the apple cart.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE14-20.845++++++89.8566.7947.83
DAL13-30.722++++++65.3136.2214.97
ATL11-50.701++++++56.8830.0711.75
KC12-40.661++++++51.8616.287.77
PIT11-50.645++++++48.1414.436.62
SEA10-5-10.640++++++43.1219.886.59
GB10-60.580++++++34.6913.843.90
HOU9-70.381++++++10.152.500.57
ARI7-8-10.606------
DEN9-70.585------
PHI7-90.577------
NYG11-50.565-++----
OAK12-40.558-++----
BAL8-80.549------
MIN8-80.547------
BUF7-90.540------
IND8-80.535------
WAS8-7-10.525------
NO7-90.524------
CIN6-9-10.523------
TEN9-70.506------
SD5-110.477------
DET9-70.475-++----
TB9-70.469------
MIA10-60.466-++----
CAR6-100.436------
JAC3-130.335------
CHI3-130.255------
NYJ5-110.234------
SF2-140.211------
CLE1-150.167------
LA4-120.156------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 40% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)
First to 45% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 17, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: New England (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: Dallas (Week 16, Saturday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 12, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Saturday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 17, Final] New England over Dallas
[Wildcard Saturday] New England over Dallas

2017-01-08

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 19

The FBS bowls this week were all back on Monday, but the FCS title game was played yesterday, and factors into the rankings too, so I stuck with my traditional rankings update. Western Michigan didn't maintain their undefeated season, but remained #3. That make some sense, because #4 and #5 also suffered losses last week in the semifinals.

For the most part, the only rankings changes involved the winners and losers from those 4 bowl games gaining or losing ground, but due to my use of strength of schedule, there's always potential for a game to fan out to affect lots of teams. This week, all the way down at #110, Illinois overtook Ball State, two teams with 7 wins total between them. Both teams actually played Western Michigan, so that loss didn't really affect things. However, Illinois played Wisconsin and Iowa. Wisconsin won and moved up 7 places to #7, while Iowa loss and remained at #50. That gave Illinois just enough of a boost to place them ahead of Ball State.

Of course, the only game that really matters is the only one left, Alabama vs Clemson, tomorrow night.


1Alabama14-0
2Clemson13-1
3Western Michigan13-1
4Washington12-2
5Ohio State11-2
6Oklahoma11-2
7Wisconsin11-3
8Penn State11-3
9Florida State10-3
10South Florida11-2
11Western Kentucky11-3
12San Diego State11-3
13USC10-3
14Michigan10-3
15West Virginia10-3
16Oklahoma State10-3
17Colorado10-4
18Boise State10-3
19Virginia Tech10-4
20Stanford10-3
21Appalachian State10-3
22Tennessee9-4
23Tulsa10-3
24Temple10-4
25Air Force10-3
26Florida9-4
27Georgia Tech9-4
28Troy10-3
29Miami9-4
30Old Dominion10-3
31Navy9-5
32LSU8-4
33Louisville9-4
34Nebraska9-4
35Utah9-4
36Minnesota9-4
37Kansas State9-4
38Houston9-4
39Toledo9-4
40North Carolina8-5
41BYU9-4
42Auburn8-5
43Idaho9-4
44Pittsburgh8-5
45Georgia8-5
46Washington State8-5
47New Mexico9-4
48Texas A&M8-5
49Louisiana Tech9-5
50Iowa8-5
51Wyoming8-6
52Memphis8-5
53Arkansas State8-5
54NC State7-6
55Arkansas7-6
56Colorado State7-6
57Northwestern7-6
58Kentucky7-6
59Middle Tennessee8-5
60Wake Forest7-6
61Ohio8-6
62Boston College7-6
63Army8-5
64Vanderbilt6-7
65Baylor7-6
66Eastern Michigan7-6
67Southern Mississippi7-6
68Hawai'i7-7
69Mississippi State6-7
70TCU6-7
71Ole Miss5-7
72South Carolina6-7
73UCF6-7
74Indiana6-7
75Louisiana Lafayette6-7
76South Alabama6-7
77Texas San Antonio6-7
78Maryland6-7
79California5-7
80Central Michigan6-7
81SMU5-7
82Arizona State5-7
83Miami (OH)6-7
84Texas Tech5-7
85Georgia Southern5-7
86Northern Illinois5-7
87Texas5-7
88Duke4-8
89Syracuse4-8
90North Texas5-8
91Missouri4-8
92Akron5-7
93UCLA4-8
94Oregon4-8
95Oregon State4-8
96Notre Dame4-8
97Louisiana Monroe4-8
98Tulane4-8
99Nevada5-7
100Cincinnati4-8
101Bowling Green4-8
102San Jose State4-8
103Arizona3-9
104UNLV4-8
105Utah State3-9
106Charlotte4-8
107Florida Intl4-8
108UTEP4-8
109New Mexico State3-9
110Illinois3-9
111Ball State4-8
112Iowa State3-9
113East Carolina3-9
114Georgia State3-9
115Michigan State3-9
116Purdue3-9
117Connecticut3-9
118Kent State3-9
119Rice3-9
120Marshall3-9
121Virginia2-10
122Florida Atlantic3-9
123Massachusetts2-10
124Rutgers2-10
125Kansas2-10
126Texas State2-10
127Buffalo2-10
128Fresno State1-11

2016 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0, Except Michigan and California
Week 2 Texas
Week 3 Texas A&M
Week 4 Texas A&M
Week 5 Tennessee
Week 6 Texas A&M
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Alabama
Week 10 Alabama
Week 11 Alabama
Week 12 Alabama
Week 13 Alabama
Week 14 Alabama
Week 15 Alabama
Week 16 Alabama
Week 17 Alabama
Week 18 Alabama

Superbowl LI Projection, Wildcard Saturday

New England over Dallas

Houston came out on top in a bit of an ugly game against Oakland, and Seattle won as expected over Detroit, so the playoffs are down to 10 teams, with nearly half of my weighted random samples now showing New England as the winner. They're currently 89% likely to win their next game, which is 68% likely to be against Houston, otherwise Miami, both of which allowed more points than they scored, usually a rarity in the playoffs, and especially in a wildcard team.

By my numbers the Houston win was an upset, but that's because my system has no idea that Oakland's starting QB was injured, and they weren't really the same team they were for the majority of the regular season. That's a limitation of the system, but one that's wayyy too complex of a problem for me to try to correct in the free time I have. FiveThirtyEight has attempted to make adjustments to Elo ratings based on missing players, or in baseball, that day's starting pitcher, but I just know the team with an injured player is some degree of overrated and roll with it.

Now for today's picks:

Miami at Pittsburgh:
As I've mentioned before, a good friend of mine is a Steelers fan, so I'm on the bandwagon for his sake.

New York Giants at Green Bay:
This is a close matchup, but I see most people claiming Green Bay as heavy favorites. I'll be rooting for Green Bay, but if I had any stake in this game, I'd be really nervous that the Giants would pull off the upset.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE14-20.845++++++88.6766.8147.85
DAL13-30.722++++++65.9736.5915.23
ATL11-50.701++++++56.8930.1411.87
KC12-40.661++++++59.6918.949.04
SEA10-5-10.640++++++43.1119.936.67
PIT11-50.645++++67.5232.519.754.48
GB10-60.580++++51.4817.867.122.03
NYG11-50.565-++48.5216.186.221.71
HOU9-70.381++++++14.642.810.64
MIA10-60.466-++32.484.481.680.49
ARI7-8-10.606------
DEN9-70.585------
PHI7-90.577------
OAK12-40.558-++----
BAL8-80.549------
MIN8-80.547------
BUF7-90.540------
IND8-80.535------
WAS8-7-10.525------
NO7-90.524------
CIN6-9-10.523------
TEN9-70.506------
SD5-110.477------
DET9-70.475-++----
TB9-70.469------
CAR6-100.436------
JAC3-130.335------
CHI3-130.255------
NYJ5-110.234------
SF2-140.211------
CLE1-150.167------
LA4-120.156------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 40% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)
First to 45% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 17, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: New England (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: Dallas (Week 16, Saturday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 12, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Saturday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 17, Final] New England over Dallas

2017-01-06

Bowl Pick 'Em Contest Winnings, Part XXXI

College football will be here again before we know it IS HERE, so I've got to get my prize from last season's Bowl Pick 'Em contest at Cards on Cards posted! My prize for a second place tie was a very generously sized box of cards, so I felt a bit overwhelmed even sorting through them. I finally sorted them out by player, and, as usual, I'll plan to post them all eventually, but I might quit halfway through, we'll see.

Part I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X
XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII XVIII XIX XX
XXI XXII XXIII XXIV XXV XXVI XXVII XXVIII XXIX XXX

If I've done the math right, I'm eliminated from this year's Bowl Pick 'Em contest already, with the final nail in the coffin coming sometime during the January 2nd games. So there will be no giant pile of Cardinals for me to dig through this year. But this one's still not done. It's getting close, though.

1992 Stadium Club Skydome #115 Tom McKinnon
1991 Fleer Ultra #289 Pedro Guerrero
1990 Post #22 Pedro Guerrero
1990 Fleer League Leaders #16 Pedro Guerrero
1989 Kmart Dream Team #33 Pedro Guerrero
1989 Kmart Dream Team #30 Tony Pena
1986 Fleer Update #U-73 Greg Mathews
The majority of this post is Pedro Guerrero, probably best known for playing for the Dodgers. He came to the Cardinals during 1988, and finished his career with the team after the 1992 season. Pedro's listed as a first basemen on 3 of the cards, but as a Pinch Hitter in the Kmart Dream Team set. He played plenty of 1B in 1988, so I'm not sure why that is. He played a little bit of outfield, too, in 1988 and in his final season.

Tom McKinnon never made it above high A, which is kind of surprising for a guy included in a mainstream set in 1992. The reason is because the selections weren't based on scouting per se, but there are 100 top picks in the set, and he was drafted #28.

2017-01-04

Almost the Easiest Super Bowl Contest on the Web 7

Digging through my post history, I see I've been entering these contests since #3. 5 and 6 didn't go so well for me, but I wound up winning #4 in 2014, and got some cool prizes. Enough bragging from me, though, go enter this year's contest. This year you'll probably have to choose if you want to go with the crowd and New England and try to win it on tiebreakers, or take a flier on someone like Houston, Oakland, or Detroit.

In case you had trouble wading through all my links, here's the link to this year's contest. Good luck!

2017-01-02

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 17, Final

New England over Dallas

There are always a lot of crazy scenarios that could play out toward the end of the season, but usually none do. This year is almost completely straightforward. In no case did a team miss the playoffs while a team with a lesser record made it this year. 9-7 was the magic cutoff record, with 2 9-7 teams making it, and the other 10 all better than that. Three 9-7 teams missed the playoffs, and again, the other 17 teams that missed the playoffs were worse than that. As usual, though, there are some strong wildcards and weak division winners that belie their seeds. Oakland is a strong #5, or would be with their starting QB. Houston is a very weak division winner, with a lower record than both AFC wildcard teams. In the NFC, the Giants have been sneakily good, finishing with 11 wins, more than 2 division winners. The strength numbers show they are seeded just about correctly though, better than just 3 other playoff teams.

Speaking of strength, Los Angeles managed to catch Cleveland and plop themselves at the bottom of the chart. Cleveland does have the worst point differential, but they scored and allowed many more points than LA, so the ratio works out in Cleveland's favor. The formula used for strength is:

pf^n
--------------
pf^n + pa^n

Where n varies based on how many points are scored per game league wide. For sorting purposes, though, a shortcut of pf/pa could be used, and LA was worst in that regard, scoring less than 57% as many points as their opponents, while Cleveland was a bit over 58%. Either way, both teams are quite bad, but the point is that the Rams got a bit lucky compared to how I'd expect them to do on average, since they won a full 25% of their games, but they should have won about 15.6%, or about 2.5 games. Cleveland should have won closer to 3 games, so they were a bit unlucky this year.

Back to the teams on top, I've got New England with a full 45% chance of winning the Super Bowl. That's a huge number going into the playoffs. Now for the Wildcard Saturday games, I'll make my rooting interests known, as is now tradition.

Oakland at Houston:
On paper, Oakland is the better team, but as I mentioned above, they're down a QB. I think Houston's probably more likely to actually win this, but I'll be rooting for Oakland.

Detroit at Seattle:
Detroit needs a few more good years before they'll feel like a legitimate NFL champion, so I'm going to root for Seattle, and my fellow Wilson, Russell.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE14-20.845++++++84.7863.7445.72
DAL13-30.722++++++68.7638.6116.40
ATL11-50.701++++++59.1631.5312.67
KC12-40.661++++++56.3818.228.74
PIT11-50.645++++67.5432.5110.034.62
SEA10-5-10.640++++66.3128.5913.224.53
GB10-60.580++++51.4918.277.382.16
OAK12-40.558-++67.1817.075.502.06
NYG11-50.565-++48.5116.536.441.80
DET9-70.475-++33.698.682.810.61
MIA10-60.466-++32.464.471.590.47
HOU9-70.381++++32.824.800.920.21
ARI7-8-10.606------
DEN9-70.585------
PHI7-90.577------
BAL8-80.549------
MIN8-80.547------
BUF7-90.540------
IND8-80.535------
WAS8-7-10.525------
NO7-90.524------
CIN6-9-10.523------
TEN9-70.506------
SD5-110.477------
TB9-70.469------
CAR6-100.436------
JAC3-130.335------
CHI3-130.255------
NYJ5-110.234------
SF2-140.211------
CLE1-150.167------
LA4-120.156------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 40% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)
First to 45% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 17, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: New England (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: Dallas (Week 16, Saturday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 12, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Saturday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Final] New England over Dallas

2017-01-01

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 18

23 bowls were played since last Saturday. As an interesting point of reference, in 1999 there were a total of 23 bowl games all postseason.

My rankings have a bit of vindication this week. While my top 6 stayed the same, the playoff games pitted #1 Alabama vs #4 Washington, and #2 Clemson vs #5 Ohio State, with Ohio State the better team in the real rankings. Alabama won, of course, but so did Clemson, and in a dominating 31-0 shutout. So, I'll get a #1 vs. #2 matchup in the championship, most likely putting the winner on top. I say "most likely" because Alabama has quite a lead in the raw numbers that are used to rank the teams, and both teams would be 14-1 if Clemson wins.


1Alabama14-0
2Clemson13-1
3Western Michigan13-0
4Washington12-2
5Ohio State11-2
6Penn State11-2
7Florida State10-3
8South Florida11-2
9Western Kentucky11-3
10San Diego State11-3
11Oklahoma10-2
12Michigan10-3
13West Virginia10-3
14Wisconsin10-3
15Oklahoma State10-3
16Boise State10-3
17Colorado10-4
18Virginia Tech10-4
19Stanford10-3
20Appalachian State10-3
21Tennessee9-4
22Tulsa10-3
23Temple10-4
24Air Force10-3
25Georgia Tech9-4
26Troy10-3
27USC9-3
28Miami9-4
29Old Dominion10-3
30Navy9-5
31Louisville9-4
32LSU8-4
33Nebraska9-4
34Utah9-4
35Minnesota9-4
36Kansas State9-4
37Houston9-4
38Toledo9-4
39North Carolina8-5
40BYU9-4
41Auburn8-4
42Idaho9-4
43Florida8-4
44Pittsburgh8-5
45Washington State8-5
46Georgia8-5
47New Mexico9-4
48Texas A&M8-5
49Louisiana Tech9-5
50Iowa8-4
51Wyoming8-6
52Memphis8-5
53Arkansas State8-5
54NC State7-6
55Arkansas7-6
56Colorado State7-6
57Northwestern7-6
58Kentucky7-6
59Middle Tennessee8-5
60Wake Forest7-6
61Ohio8-6
62Boston College7-6
63Army8-5
64Vanderbilt6-7
65Baylor7-6
66Eastern Michigan7-6
67Southern Mississippi7-6
68Hawai'i7-7
69Mississippi State6-7
70TCU6-7
71Ole Miss5-7
72South Carolina6-7
73UCF6-7
74Indiana6-7
75Louisiana Lafayette6-7
76South Alabama6-7
77Texas San Antonio6-7
78Maryland6-7
79Central Michigan6-7
80California5-7
81SMU5-7
82Arizona State5-7
83Miami (OH)6-7
84Texas Tech5-7
85Georgia Southern5-7
86Northern Illinois5-7
87Texas5-7
88Duke4-8
89Syracuse4-8
90North Texas5-8
91Missouri4-8
92Akron5-7
93UCLA4-8
94Oregon4-8
95Oregon State4-8
96Notre Dame4-8
97Louisiana Monroe4-8
98Tulane4-8
99Nevada5-7
100Cincinnati4-8
101Bowling Green4-8
102San Jose State4-8
103Arizona3-9
104UNLV4-8
105Utah State3-9
106Charlotte4-8
107Florida Intl4-8
108UTEP4-8
109New Mexico State3-9
110Ball State4-8
111Illinois3-9
112Iowa State3-9
113East Carolina3-9
114Georgia State3-9
115Michigan State3-9
116Purdue3-9
117Connecticut3-9
118Kent State3-9
119Rice3-9
120Marshall3-9
121Virginia2-10
122Florida Atlantic3-9
123Massachusetts2-10
124Rutgers2-10
125Kansas2-10
126Texas State2-10
127Buffalo2-10
128Fresno State1-11

2016 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0, Except Michigan and California
Week 2 Texas
Week 3 Texas A&M
Week 4 Texas A&M
Week 5 Tennessee
Week 6 Texas A&M
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Alabama
Week 10 Alabama
Week 11 Alabama
Week 12 Alabama
Week 13 Alabama
Week 14 Alabama
Week 15 Alabama
Week 16 Alabama
Week 17 Alabama