2018-10-18

2018 World Series Projection, October 18

Boston over Los Angeles

League Championship Series
HOU 1-3 BOS
LAD 3-2 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC


TeamStrengthWSWin
HOU0.679216.2310.53
BOS0.638283.7746.39
LAD0.626581.1537.06
MIL0.562718.856.02

Boston and LA are both just one win from the World Series. Boston will get up to 3 chances, while LA has to win one of the next 2 games. The NL has a break today, but the ALCS could end as early as tonight.

2018-10-17

2018 World Series Projection, October 17

Boston over Los Angeles

League Championship Series
HOU 1-2 BOS
LAD 2-2 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC


TeamStrengthWSWin
HOU0.679238.3625.93
BOS0.638261.6435.96
LAD0.626559.8226.03
MIL0.562740.1812.08

Boston blew out Houston to take over the AL lead, and LA took 13 innings to tie up the series with Milwaukee and retake the NL projection lead. Both teams go back at it tonight, and we'll have LCS games through at least Friday now.

2018-10-16

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 6, Final

Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams

At 3-2-1, Green Bay is in the middle of the pack, so they didn't change the projection very much with their win over San Francisco. They took a few percentage points off the Division title chances of Chicago, but remain below a 2% shot of winning the Super Bowl, although they've moved just ahead of Houston, 1 spot higher than before. On the other end of Monday's game, San Francisco lost one spot to fall behind Denver, down to an 0.05% chance of winning it all.

Also, yesterday I said Arizona only won the Super Bowl 416 out of 100 million times, but I was reading my raw numbers wrong. That's how many times they become the NFC #1 seed, presumably at 11-5. I showed them winning the Super Bowl 4931 times, which still displays a 0.00% in my chart.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR6-00.62293.4197.9289.6252.7630.3216.91
BAL4-20.64656.6382.7668.4542.5426.0915.08
CHI4-10.59169.6085.6368.1937.2819.4410.24
KC5-10.56169.8786.9769.9536.4418.148.90
NO4-10.55761.0674.3252.0425.7512.426.12
NE4-20.54857.1771.3152.4126.1512.636.03
LAC4-20.55428.1064.7043.8922.0210.815.23
CIN4-20.52726.1857.8037.9217.708.313.80
DAL3-30.54935.9947.9328.9613.796.583.19
NYJ3-30.54827.6140.8025.5212.526.082.90
SEA3-30.5566.2243.2724.0311.335.572.73
PIT3-2-10.53014.8241.6325.9312.175.742.64
PHI3-30.54430.3041.3224.3411.445.402.59
WAS3-20.50532.8949.1928.5312.335.312.34
CAR3-20.51425.6042.5324.2510.694.712.12
GB3-2-10.50813.6140.3922.089.574.181.85
HOU3-30.49637.9842.6322.659.784.191.78
MIN3-2-10.48410.3730.5215.896.532.701.13
JAC3-30.45928.8233.4116.506.532.571.00
MIA3-30.45113.1723.6812.364.871.900.73
TEN3-30.44326.2728.7613.034.961.880.70
DET2-30.4786.4216.328.183.321.360.56
TB2-30.4538.0215.136.992.621.010.39
ATL2-40.4615.3211.425.262.000.790.31
CLE2-3-10.4542.379.294.591.810.720.28
IND1-50.4536.937.513.141.210.470.18
DEN2-40.4321.815.442.460.920.340.13
SF1-50.4470.322.210.930.350.130.05
BUF2-40.3652.052.660.960.300.090.03
NYG1-50.4140.821.460.570.190.070.02
OAK1-50.3850.220.640.250.080.030.01
ARI1-50.3750.050.450.150.040.010.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams

2018 World Series Projection, October 16

Houston over Milwaukee

League Championship Series
HOU 1-1 BOS
LAD 1-2 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC


TeamStrengthWSWin
HOU0.679258.4840.86
BOS0.638241.5225.27
LAD0.626541.7117.33
MIL0.562758.2916.54

Milwaukee won game 3, and with a 2-1 lead is now favored in the NLCS again. LA got shut out and only managed 5 hits. However, they only allowed 7 hits for Milwaukee, those just happened to be stacked together enough to allow 4 runs as well. The ALCS resumes tonight, and we'll have 2 games a day for at least the next 2 days.

2018-10-15

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 6, Sunday

Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams

Baltimore shut out Tennessee, which in my system skyrockets your strength. They are now the strongest team, though not the most likely to make and win the Super Bowl. That title still belongs to LA, who eked out a win against Denver. However, in a head to head matchup, Baltimore would win. Hence why the matchup projection and table seem incongruous. I'm getting close to the point where I will need to start running more simulations, because today Arizona won the Superbowl in just 416 out of 100 million runs.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR6-00.62193.1297.8989.6652.8430.3616.93
BAL4-20.64656.6282.7568.4342.5426.0815.07
CHI4-10.59172.1586.3268.9337.7219.6710.36
KC5-10.56169.8786.9769.9436.4318.138.89
NO4-10.55761.0474.7752.4925.9712.536.17
NE4-20.54857.1871.3552.4626.1712.656.04
LAC4-20.55428.1164.6943.8922.0210.815.22
CIN4-20.52726.1957.7837.9017.698.313.80
DAL3-30.54935.9948.4629.3613.986.673.23
NYJ3-30.54827.6140.8325.5412.526.082.91
SEA3-30.5566.1744.2324.5411.565.682.79
PIT3-2-10.53014.8241.6025.9112.165.742.63
PHI3-30.54430.2941.8624.7211.625.492.63
WAS3-20.50532.8949.8128.9612.515.392.37
CAR3-20.51425.6143.1724.6510.864.782.15
HOU3-30.49637.9642.6122.639.774.191.78
GB2-2-10.5029.7030.4216.096.872.971.30
MIN3-2-10.48411.1231.5016.416.752.791.17
JAC3-30.45928.8333.4016.506.532.571.00
MIA3-30.45113.1723.7212.384.871.900.73
TEN3-30.44326.2828.7613.034.961.880.71
DET2-30.4787.0416.968.513.451.410.59
TB2-30.4538.0115.557.192.691.040.41
ATL2-40.4615.3411.825.452.070.810.33
CLE2-3-10.4542.379.304.591.810.720.28
IND1-50.4536.937.513.141.210.470.18
SF1-40.4510.675.242.280.850.330.13
DEN2-40.4321.815.432.460.920.340.12
BUF2-40.3652.042.660.960.300.090.03
NYG1-50.4140.821.510.600.200.070.02
OAK1-50.3850.220.640.250.080.030.01
ARI1-50.3750.040.480.160.050.020.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

2018 World Series Projection, October 15

Houston over Los Angeles

League Championship Series
HOU 1-1 BOS
LAD 1-1 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC


TeamStrengthWSWin
HOU0.679258.4839.35
BOS0.638241.5224.09
LAD0.626562.2025.84
MIL0.562737.8010.72

Both series are tied 1-1, making them effectively 5 game series with reversed homefield advantage. Tonight, the NL resumes after an off day to travel to LA.

2018-10-14

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 7

Notre Dame remains #1, and Alabama has climbed to #2 despite only beating Missouri, who has fallen to #77.

Congrats to UCLA for winning a game, and to UTEP for holding that #129 slot for another week despite a bye.

1Notre Dame7-0
2Alabama7-0
3LSU6-1
4Ohio State7-0
5Clemson6-0
6Florida6-1
7Texas6-1
8Georgia6-1
9Michigan6-1
10South Florida6-0
11UCF6-0
12NC State5-0
13Cincinnati6-0
14Oklahoma5-1
15Iowa5-1
16Kentucky5-1
17Buffalo6-1
18North Texas6-1
19Washington5-2
20Duke5-1
T-21Texas A&M5-2
T-21Hawai'i6-2
23San Diego State5-1
24West Virginia5-1
25Stanford4-2
26Washington State5-1
27Oregon5-1
28Miami5-2
29Ole Miss5-2
30Troy5-2
31UAB5-1
32Fresno State5-1
33Utah4-2
34Boston College5-2
35Utah State5-1
36Colorado5-1
37Georgia Southern5-1
38Western Michigan5-2
39USC4-2
40Army4-2
41BYU4-3
42Houston5-1
43Texas Tech4-2
44Louisiana Tech4-2
45Mississippi State4-2
46Virginia4-2
47Indiana4-3
48Michigan State4-2
T-49Baylor4-3
T-49Penn State4-2
51Boise State4-2
52Maryland4-2
53Syracuse4-2
54Wisconsin4-2
55Auburn4-3
56Appalachian State4-1
57Virginia Tech4-2
58Oklahoma State4-3
59Northern Illinois4-3
60Temple4-3
61Florida Intl4-2
62Marshall4-2
63South Carolina3-3
64Tennessee3-3
65Iowa State3-3
66Wake Forest3-3
67TCU3-3
68Coastal Carolina3-3
69Minnesota3-3
70Memphis4-3
71Arizona State3-3
72Eastern Michigan3-4
73Kansas State3-4
74Vanderbilt3-4
75Florida State3-3
76Arkansas State3-3
77Missouri3-3
78Georgia Tech3-4
79Northwestern3-3
80Middle Tennessee3-3
81UL Monroe3-4
82Pittsburgh3-4
83Florida Atlantic3-3
84California3-3
85Colorado State3-4
86Ohio3-3
87Arizona3-4
88Purdue3-3
89Louisiana3-3
90Toledo3-3
91Illinois3-3
92New Mexico3-3
93Miami (OH)3-4
94Nevada3-4
95Georgia State2-4
96Tulane2-4
97Ball State3-4
98Charlotte3-3
99UTSA3-4
100Akron2-3
101SMU2-4
T-102Air Force2-4
T-102Southern Mississippi2-3
104UMass2-5
105Wyoming2-5
106East Carolina2-4
107Kansas2-4
108Louisville2-5
109Navy2-4
110UNLV2-4
111South Alabama2-5
112UCLA1-5
113UConn1-5
114Tulsa1-5
115New Mexico State2-5
116North Carolina1-4
117Arkansas1-6
118Central Michigan1-6
119Oregon State1-5
120Bowling Green1-6
121Rice1-6
122Rutgers1-6
123Western Kentucky1-5
124Old Dominion1-6
125San Jose State0-6
126Kent State1-6
127Nebraska0-6
128Texas State1-5
129UTEP0-6

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford
Week 5 Notre Dame
Week 6 Notre Dame

2018 World Series Projection, October 14

Houston over Los Angeles

League Championship Series
HOU 1-0 BOS
LAD 1-1 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC


TeamStrengthWSWin
HOU0.679273.7249.60
BOS0.638226.2815.25
LAD0.626562.2024.92
MIL0.562737.8010.24

ALCS game 1 was close until the 9th when Houston scored 4 runs to make it a 5 run lead. Until that point I thought we had a decent chance of seeing a walkoff by Boston. LA evened the series against Milwaukee, and is now favored again. Note they are not quite as favored as they were when the series was 0-0, becuase a 7 games series is more likely to have the stronger team win than a 5 game series.

2018-10-13

2018 World Series Projection, October 13

Houston over Milwaukee

League Championship Series
HOU 0-0 BOS
LAD 0-1 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC


TeamStrengthWSWin
HOU0.679259.8741.40
BOS0.638240.1324.11
LAD0.626547.3819.62
MIL0.562752.6214.87

At least for a day, Milwaukee is the new favorite to win the NL. The teams are closely matched enough that any series lead will result in the leader being favored. Tonight, the ALCS begins, and we'll see if Houston can continue on their path to be the first team to repeat as champions since 2000.

2018-10-12

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 6, Thursday

Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

I need some kind of specific hook for Thursday projections, because they never seem to have an effect at the top unless one of the top teams is playing. Philadelphia moved up to be the 5th most likely team to win the NFC, from 7th, and are now 47% likely to win the NFC East, up from 29%. New York, of course, moved in the opposite direction, from an 8% shot at the division to just under 2%, and they are the second least likely NFC representative in the Superbowl, just ahead of Arizona.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR5-00.60993.8897.2087.7651.6629.5616.66
KC5-00.56883.2592.7680.6143.5122.9911.70
CHI3-10.58467.0082.9665.0835.6918.8910.15
BAL3-20.60534.8665.7848.2827.7615.858.67
NO4-10.55753.2677.4556.6128.9814.397.35
CIN4-10.53845.6071.3852.2826.0512.856.16
NE3-20.54850.2360.8940.7620.6210.365.07
JAC3-20.54045.4957.6237.5618.589.154.40
CAR3-10.52532.7060.6939.3818.508.574.10
PHI3-30.54446.6954.4833.0715.967.733.85
LAC3-20.51213.2343.1625.1811.725.482.49
TEN3-20.50335.4245.0026.2612.015.472.43
NYJ2-30.53722.0130.9418.058.844.342.08
WAS2-20.49132.3842.9623.9710.274.421.96
GB2-2-10.50213.8736.2619.938.763.901.78
PIT2-2-10.51710.1126.7215.847.503.541.63
CLE2-2-10.5029.4325.2014.496.633.041.35
SEA2-30.5044.5328.4814.596.322.851.31
MIA3-20.46122.8934.8518.737.773.221.30
TB2-20.46011.7628.4214.705.852.350.98
MIN2-2-10.4669.5525.0812.715.142.100.88
DAL2-30.46619.1525.1312.475.002.040.86
HOU2-30.48213.3619.9310.414.521.960.83
DET2-30.4789.5820.8510.904.561.930.83
IND1-40.4645.737.793.661.520.630.26
DEN2-30.4392.719.034.191.640.650.25
ATL1-40.4532.288.083.741.430.570.23
SF1-40.4511.276.993.161.220.490.20
BUF2-30.3844.876.332.550.870.300.10
OAK1-40.4270.812.611.160.450.170.06
NYG1-50.4141.772.611.060.370.130.05
ARI1-40.3940.322.360.880.290.100.04

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

2018-10-10

2018 World Series Projection, October 10

Houston over Los Angeles

League Championship Series
HOU 0-0 BOS
LAD 0-0 MIL

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-3 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC


TeamStrengthWSWin
HOU0.679259.8740.13
BOS0.638240.1323.17
LAD0.626564.1626.57
MIL0.562735.8410.13

The top 2 teams (by seeding) in each league have advanced to the NLCS and ALCS. I've still got Houston and LA favored, although both with open the series on the road as the #2 seeds, and have to play game 7 on the road as well, if necessary.

2018-10-09

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 5, Final

Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

New Orleans climbed up the charts and Washington fell due to a 43-19 blowout. The NFC is still strongly favoring Los Angeles, but New Orleans bumped themselves from 9% to 15% chances of making the Super Bowl.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR5-00.60994.1197.4188.5852.6730.3417.10
KC5-00.56883.2692.7680.5843.4922.9811.75
CHI3-10.58466.4582.8365.1136.0219.1610.31
BAL3-20.60534.8565.7548.2427.7415.848.70
NO4-10.55753.7778.7558.4830.2515.117.72
CIN4-10.53845.6171.3652.2426.0312.846.18
NE3-20.54850.2360.8840.7220.6010.345.08
JAC3-20.54046.4858.5838.3418.979.334.51
CAR3-10.52533.0162.3541.1419.509.084.35
LAC3-20.51213.2243.1525.1611.705.472.50
TEN3-20.50334.3043.9525.5911.715.342.38
WAS2-20.49138.6246.4426.1011.204.832.15
NYJ2-30.53722.0030.9218.028.834.332.08
GB2-2-10.50214.1236.9920.639.124.081.86
PIT2-2-10.51710.1126.6915.817.483.541.63
PHI2-30.49828.6233.8018.197.893.471.57
SEA2-30.5044.4029.0615.176.582.991.37
CLE2-2-10.5029.4325.1814.476.623.031.35
MIA3-20.46122.8934.8318.717.773.221.31
DAL2-30.46624.2929.2214.585.862.391.00
TB2-20.46011.1028.0214.655.862.370.99
MIN2-2-10.4669.7125.6713.225.382.210.93
DET2-30.4789.7221.3811.334.772.030.88
HOU2-30.48213.7320.4810.724.652.020.86
NYG1-40.4528.4710.634.881.880.740.30
DEN2-30.4392.719.024.181.640.650.25
IND1-40.4645.497.503.521.460.610.25
ATL1-40.4532.128.023.791.470.590.24
SF1-40.4511.186.963.201.240.500.20
BUF2-30.3844.876.332.550.860.300.10
OAK1-40.4270.812.611.160.450.170.06
ARI1-40.3940.322.480.950.310.110.04

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

2018 World Series Projection, October 9

Houston over Los Angeles

Division Series
CLE 0-3 HOU
NYY 1-2 BOS
ATL 1-3 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC


TeamStrengthLCSWSWin
HOU0.6792100.0061.2041.03
BOS0.638277.8331.2418.04
LAD0.6265100.0064.1626.79
NYY0.610822.177.563.89
MIL0.5627100.0035.8410.25

I don't want to jinx it, but it's starting to look like Houston and LA could be wire-to-wire favorites through the whole posteason. Of course the easiest time for that streak to be broken is game 1 of either LCS, so we're not guaranteed anything just yet. There's just one LDS series left, and New York is going to need to turn things around if they want to survive, after a terrible 16-1 loss last night.

2018-10-08

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 5, Sunday

Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City

Well, today's projection would have been my dream matchup between 1995 and 2015. Those two played for the Missouri Governor's Cup nearly every year, either in the regular season or preseason, and occasionally both, but sometimes neither. Speaking of teams that spurned STL, congrats to Arizona for winning their first game. We now have no winless teams remaining.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR5-00.60994.2397.5488.4952.4430.2417.03
KC5-00.56883.2492.7380.6043.5022.9711.75
CHI3-10.58466.2783.0664.6935.7219.0010.22
BAL3-20.60534.9366.2948.7128.0015.988.79
CIN4-10.53845.7371.8252.7126.2512.946.24
WAS2-10.54859.3070.1949.3424.7512.116.07
NE3-20.54850.2360.8840.7620.6110.345.09
CAR3-10.52542.2964.2242.4120.069.334.46
JAC3-20.54046.3757.8837.6318.619.154.43
NO3-10.52339.5161.2839.8118.738.694.14
LAC3-20.51213.2343.1325.1711.715.472.50
TEN3-20.50334.1943.3025.0511.465.222.34
NYJ2-30.53722.0030.9118.028.824.332.08
GB2-2-10.50214.0837.6920.789.204.111.87
PIT2-2-10.51710.1527.3316.227.673.621.67
SEA2-30.5044.3129.8915.336.673.031.39
CLE2-2-10.5029.1925.1614.456.613.021.35
PHI2-30.49819.3227.9715.116.612.921.32
MIA3-20.46122.9034.8218.707.763.221.31
TB2-20.46014.9829.3315.156.062.451.02
MIN2-2-10.4669.9726.9413.695.582.290.96
DET2-30.4789.6821.7411.354.782.030.88
HOU2-30.48213.7020.0610.464.541.970.84
DAL2-30.46616.2124.0012.014.862.000.84
IND1-40.4645.757.713.611.490.630.26
ATL1-40.4533.228.433.951.530.610.25
DEN2-30.4392.719.034.191.640.650.25
NYG1-40.4525.177.923.661.420.570.23
SF1-40.4511.157.213.261.260.510.21
BUF2-30.3844.876.332.550.870.300.10
OAK1-40.4280.812.611.160.450.170.07
ARI1-40.3940.312.590.970.320.110.04

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore

2018 World Series Projection, October 8

Houston over Los Angeles

Division Series
CLE 0-2 HOU
NYY 1-1 BOS
ATL 1-2 LAD
COL 0-3 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC


TeamStrengthLCSWSWin
HOU0.679292.4757.9039.67
BOS0.638254.3722.5213.37
LAD0.626580.7651.8122.22
NYY0.610845.6316.148.58
CLE0.60747.533.441.81
ATL0.567219.249.812.99
MIL0.5627100.0038.3811.37

Milwaukee finished off the sweep to eliminate the weakest team this round, Colorado. Unfortunately for them, they'll be the weakest team next round. LA couldn't quite finish off Atlanta, so game 4 is tonight, along with game 3 in both ALCS.

2018-10-07

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 6

I'm still a little more bullish on Notre Dame than the polls are, with them still at #1 this week. I noticed there are only 5 6-0 teams at the top of the real polls, and thought I had an error of some sort because I also show Cincinnati at 6-0 and #7. But no, the polls have them all the way down at #25.

Missouri was favored on the road this week against South Carolina but couldn't turn that into an actual win. That dropped them from #53 to #70, with a road game against Alabama on the horizon. I don't think this is their year.

Our 4 winless teams all lost again. San Jose State managed to pass up UCLA and Nebraska in the race to the bottom, but UTEP reigns supreme as the only 0-6 team and holds #129 for another week.

1Notre Dame6-0
2Clemson6-0
3Georgia6-0
4Alabama6-0
5Ohio State6-0
6LSU5-1
7Cincinnati6-0
8NC State5-0
9Florida5-1
10Kentucky5-1
11Hawai'i6-1
12South Florida5-0
13Oklahoma5-1
14Texas5-1
15Washington5-1
16Michigan5-1
17West Virginia5-0
18Miami5-1
19UCF5-0
20Troy5-1
21Washington State5-1
22Stanford4-2
23Colorado5-0
24North Texas5-1
25Buffalo5-1
26Duke4-1
27San Diego State4-1
28Iowa4-1
29Penn State4-1
30Mississippi State4-2
31Texas A&M4-2
32Auburn4-2
33Syracuse4-2
34Baylor4-2
35UAB4-1
36Georgia Southern4-1
37Wisconsin4-1
38Ole Miss4-2
39Indiana4-2
40Fresno State4-1
41Western Michigan4-2
42Boston College4-2
43Oregon4-1
44Utah State4-1
45Oklahoma State4-2
46Army3-2
47South Carolina3-2
48Utah3-2
49Coastal Carolina3-2
50Houston4-1
51USC3-2
52BYU3-3
53Memphis4-2
54Texas Tech3-2
55Vanderbilt3-3
56Boise State3-2
57Wake Forest3-3
58Maryland3-2
59TCU3-2
60Louisiana Tech3-2
61California3-2
62Middle Tennessee3-2
63Virginia3-2
64Minnesota3-2
65Arizona State3-3
66Virginia Tech3-2
67Arkansas State3-2
68Michigan State3-2
69Pittsburgh3-3
70Missouri3-2
71Georgia Tech3-3
72Florida State3-3
73Illinois3-2
74Temple3-3
75Marshall3-2
76Appalachian State3-1
77Florida Atlantic3-3
78Toledo3-2
79New Mexico3-2
80Ohio3-2
81Florida Intl3-2
82Northern Illinois3-3
83Nevada3-3
84Arizona3-3
85Tulane2-4
86Tennessee2-3
87Georgia State2-4
88Iowa State2-3
89Kansas State2-4
90UTSA3-3
91Wyoming2-4
92Northwestern2-3
93Air Force2-3
94Eastern Michigan2-4
95SMU2-4
96Louisiana2-3
97Southern Mississippi2-2
98UL Monroe2-4
99Colorado State2-4
100East Carolina2-3
101Navy2-3
102Kansas2-4
103UMass2-5
104Miami (OH)2-4
105Akron2-2
106Purdue2-3
107UNLV2-3
108Louisville2-4
109Ball State2-4
T-110Charlotte2-3
T-110New Mexico State2-4
112UConn1-5
113North Carolina1-3
114Tulsa1-4
115Arkansas1-5
116Central Michigan1-5
117Rutgers1-5
118Rice1-5
119Oregon State1-5
120South Alabama1-5
121Western Kentucky1-4
122UCLA0-5
123Bowling Green1-5
124Kent State1-5
125Old Dominion1-5
126Nebraska0-5
127San Jose State0-5
128Texas State1-4
129UTEP0-6

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford
Week 5 Notre Dame

2018 World Series Projection, October 7

Houston over Los Angeles

Division Series
CLE 0-2 HOU
NYY 1-1 BOS
ATL 0-2 LAD
COL 0-2 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC


TeamStrengthLCSWSWin
HOU0.679292.4757.9039.24
BOS0.638254.3722.5213.19
LAD0.626591.5659.4525.49
NYY0.610845.6316.148.45
CLE0.60747.533.441.78
ATL0.56728.444.381.33
MIL0.562790.3633.399.89
COL0.52159.642.780.62

New York evened the series with Boston, but Houston took a 2-0 lead to become even more favored to win the AL. Both NLDS resume today, with game 3 for each.

2018-10-06

2018 World Series Projection, October 6

Houston over Los Angeles

Division Series
CLE 0-1 HOU
NYY 0-1 BOS
ATL 0-2 LAD
COL 0-2 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC


TeamStrengthLCSWSWin
HOU0.679279.4348.8433.10
BOS0.638272.9931.8518.65
LAD0.626591.5659.4526.03
NYY0.610827.0110.145.31
CLE0.607420.579.174.73
ATL0.56728.444.381.37
MIL0.562790.3633.3910.15
COL0.52159.642.780.64

All the favorites won, which means the overall projection won't change, it'll just get stronger. For example, yesterday I showed about a 1 in 5 shot of the Houston-LA matchup, and today it's up to almost 1 in 3.

2018-10-05

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 5, Thursday

Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore

New England is clawing their way back, now up to 3-2 with their win over Indianapolis. Indy is down to about a 6% chance of making the playoffs, down from 13%, while New England went from 49% to 64%.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR4-00.60183.4792.2279.8146.3826.3814.77
BAL3-10.59453.8377.5359.9334.2219.3210.50
CHI3-10.58463.9081.6663.7135.3419.0910.35
JAC3-10.57555.6975.1457.0831.2416.848.82
KC4-00.54273.8283.4364.4632.9716.528.12
WAS2-10.54850.2564.1445.1622.8111.305.73
NE3-20.54850.6763.7942.6321.7711.045.49
CIN3-10.52134.4960.4540.1819.309.284.36
NO3-10.52341.9459.2539.0018.578.724.20
CAR2-10.52434.3451.9833.5815.947.483.61
TEN3-10.50535.7954.8734.6316.147.503.41
GB2-1-10.51924.8551.6731.8814.997.033.36
MIA3-10.48234.8152.6731.9214.086.182.67
SEA2-20.50912.5237.8221.469.764.522.11
PHI2-20.50223.6335.5120.549.264.171.92
LAC2-20.48511.1328.1715.446.843.031.32
DAL2-20.47420.0429.5715.816.662.811.22
DEN2-20.47310.5824.1112.585.412.330.99
TB2-20.46014.9626.0513.615.532.260.95
CLE1-2-10.4966.9417.679.744.452.040.91
NYJ1-30.50010.9716.618.753.991.830.82
ATL1-30.4908.7617.439.264.021.770.79
MIN1-2-10.4636.1916.478.323.421.420.60
PIT1-2-10.4764.7413.707.153.111.360.58
SF1-30.4693.8014.067.032.921.240.53
HOU1-30.4785.2511.495.922.591.140.49
DET1-30.4645.0610.755.412.240.940.40
NYG1-30.4526.0710.435.052.010.810.33
OAK1-30.4574.479.584.721.960.820.33
IND1-40.4633.275.962.871.210.520.21
BUF1-30.3983.564.832.010.720.260.09
ARI0-40.3890.210.980.370.120.040.02

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore

2018 World Series Projection, October 5

Houston over Los Angeles

Division Series
CLE 0-0 HOU
NYY 0-0 BOS
ATL 0-1 LAD
COL 0-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC


TeamStrengthLCSWSWin
HOU0.679264.3540.2527.81
BOS0.638255.4625.6215.38
LAD0.626577.3551.2023.36
NYY0.610844.5417.849.62
CLE0.607435.6516.298.66
ATL0.567222.6512.063.97
MIL0.562774.7029.009.30
COL0.521525.307.741.90

Both home teams won game 1 of each NLDS. That means the projection didn't change too much because the expected happened. LA is now over the 50% mark for their chances to make it to the World Series.

As a reminder, just like every year, I'll be entering Collector's Crack's Almost the Easiest World Series Contest on the Web, and you should too! Go pick the winner, loser, total number of games played, and total home runs hit in the World Series. The deadline is tomorrow, so make sure to get a pick in soon.

2018-10-04

2018 World Series Projection, October 4

Houston over Los Angeles

Division Series
CLE 0-0 HOU
NYY 0-0 BOS
ATL 0-0 LAD
COL 0-0 MIL

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-1 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC


TeamStrengthLCSWSWin
HOU0.679264.3540.2528.43
BOS0.638255.4625.6215.83
LAD0.626561.4041.4818.93
NYY0.610844.5417.849.94
CLE0.607435.6516.298.95
ATL0.567238.6021.156.97
MIL0.562757.7423.637.58
COL0.521542.2613.743.38

It didn't really occur to me until just now that the projection I've had since the playoffs began is a repeat of last year's World Series. We've also got the same 4 ALDS teams, though the opponents have swapped. The only repeat NLDS team is LA, while Colorado was in the Wildcard game last year as well as this year, though they lost last year.

2018-10-03

2018 World Series Projection, October 3

Houston over Los Angeles

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-0 NYY
COL 1-0 CHC

TeamStrengthLDSLCSWSWin
HOU0.6792100.0064.3540.7628.79
BOS0.6382100.0057.6326.6216.45
LAD0.6265100.0061.4041.4819.01
NYY0.610852.4923.389.365.22
CLE0.6074100.0035.6516.619.13
OAK0.586947.5119.006.653.35
ATL0.5672100.0038.6021.157.01
MIL0.5627100.0057.7423.637.63
COL0.5215100.0042.2613.743.41

It took 13 innings, but Colorado advanced out of the wildcard game. I give them a 42% chance of beating Milwaukee in the NLDS, but as I always want to point out, that doesn't take into account the depletion of Colorado's bullpen and using a starter while Milwaukee had a day off. At least both teams had to play in a division-settling game 163, so Milwaukee's starters are not completely rested.

Tonight, rumor has it Oakland is going with a bullpen game. I really hope MLB doesn't panic and mess with the roster rules to prevent this in the future. I say they should let teams try unconventional strategies within the rules.

2018-10-02

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 4, Final

Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore

Kansas City, now the only undefeated AFC team at 4-0, is making a run at Baltimore for the conference favorite, but can't quite match Baltimore's strength. Interestingly, KC has a better chance of making the playoffs, but is more likely to lose before the Super Bowl.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR4-00.60183.4792.2079.7546.3326.3514.83
BAL3-10.59453.7477.8460.7234.9319.8710.79
CHI3-10.58463.9481.8563.9335.4719.1610.44
JAC3-10.57453.5473.8356.4131.1016.888.84
KC4-00.54274.1483.8765.6533.8917.108.41
WAS2-10.54850.4264.1645.1422.8011.305.76
CIN3-10.52034.4861.1641.2319.959.664.54
NO3-10.52341.9359.1938.9518.548.714.22
CAR2-10.52334.3351.9133.5115.917.463.62
TEN3-10.50534.7054.3134.7116.307.623.47
GB2-1-10.51924.8852.1332.2015.147.103.41
NE2-20.52338.7848.9230.0614.577.033.32
MIA3-10.48242.6555.7834.2715.216.702.90
SEA2-20.50912.5237.7321.409.734.502.12
PHI2-20.50223.7635.5720.569.274.171.94
LAC2-20.48511.0328.5815.907.113.171.38
DAL2-20.47419.8329.1715.576.562.771.21
DEN2-20.47310.4824.4812.995.632.441.03
TB2-20.46014.9726.0113.575.522.250.95
CLE1-2-10.4966.9217.9310.034.612.130.95
NYJ1-30.50013.8418.919.994.572.100.95
ATL1-30.4908.7617.409.244.011.760.80
IND1-30.4886.7513.337.293.301.490.65
PIT1-2-10.4764.8514.237.533.301.460.62
MIN1-2-10.4636.2116.758.473.491.450.61
SF1-30.4693.8114.027.012.911.240.53
HOU1-30.4785.0111.365.972.641.170.50
DET1-30.4644.9610.675.362.220.930.40
OAK1-30.4574.359.644.822.020.850.35
NYG1-30.4526.0010.264.961.980.800.33
BUF1-30.3984.735.862.430.870.310.11
ARI0-40.3890.210.980.370.120.040.02

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore

2018 World Series Projection, October 2

Houston over Los Angeles

Wildcard Round
OAK 0-0 NYY
COL 0-0 CHC

TeamStrengthLDSLCSWSWin
HOU0.6792100.0064.3540.7628.54
BOS0.6382100.0057.6326.6216.25
LAD0.6265100.0061.4039.7818.24
NYY0.610852.4923.389.365.14
CLE0.6074100.0035.6516.619.00
OAK0.586947.5119.006.653.30
CHI0.576855.5729.2812.874.52
ATL0.5672100.0038.6019.986.63
MIL0.5627100.0051.9421.266.87
COL0.521544.4318.786.111.51

Every year it seems I encounter some new scenario I'd like my software to handle automatically. This year I did not see the 2 division ties with all 4 teams involved guaranteed a playoffs spot" scenario coming, so didn't have time to try to wedge that in. But I keep a list of these scenarios so that one day maybe I can handle them all easily. For now, you get your first projection after both of those games 163 have been played.

Houston is the strongest team in the AL by virtue of their stingy defense/pitching. They allowed 534 runs, while the next best team allowed 610. That gave them a ridiculous run differential of +263, with Boston coming in second at +229. In the NL, the #2 seed is also the favorite, with LA projected as 39% likely to make the World Series.

2018-10-01

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 4, Sunday

Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore

Miami lost a big divisional game against New England in which I had them favored, and Baltimore won against Pittsburgh. so they are your new AFC favorite. Other than that, I'm kinda busy tonight, so enjoy the raw numbers.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR4-00.60183.4492.2079.7546.3426.3514.88
BAL3-10.59453.8877.8061.2135.3920.2511.00
CHI3-10.58463.9581.8563.9435.4619.1510.49
JAC3-10.57453.6773.6856.7831.5117.189.00
KC3-00.53458.9872.4153.8527.3113.576.56
WAS2-10.54850.4264.1645.1322.7911.295.78
CIN3-10.52034.4160.9341.4620.169.834.62
NO3-10.52341.9459.1838.9418.538.704.24
CAR2-10.52334.3351.9133.5015.917.473.64
TEN3-10.50534.6354.0835.0316.567.793.54
GB2-1-10.51924.8852.1232.2015.147.103.43
NE2-20.52338.9148.8930.3714.837.193.40
MIA3-10.48242.6055.6034.6115.486.862.97
SEA2-20.50912.5837.8621.489.774.532.14
PHI2-20.50223.7635.5620.569.274.171.95
DEN2-10.48122.9437.4422.049.834.341.87
LAC2-20.48513.2028.5916.337.353.291.43
DAL2-20.47419.8229.1615.576.562.771.21
CLE1-2-10.4966.9117.7910.074.662.170.97
NYJ1-30.50013.7618.7410.024.622.140.96
TB2-20.46014.9726.0113.585.522.260.96
ATL1-30.4908.7617.399.244.011.760.80
IND1-30.4886.7313.197.313.341.520.66
PIT1-2-10.4764.8013.977.493.301.470.63
MIN1-2-10.4636.2116.758.473.481.440.62
SF1-30.4693.7813.956.972.901.230.53
HOU1-30.4784.9711.236.002.671.190.51
DET1-30.4644.9610.675.362.230.930.40
OAK1-30.4574.889.824.982.100.890.36
NYG1-30.4526.0010.254.951.970.800.33
BUF1-30.3984.725.832.440.880.320.11
ARI0-40.3890.210.980.370.120.040.02

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami

2018-09-30

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 5

The easiest part of this used to be copying and pasting the game results into the text file that my ruby scripts and C++ program would then format and churn through, but not this week. ESPN renamed a ton of teams this week., especially in Division II and III, some of whom they also previously renamed this year. It's something small like changing "UNC Pembroke" to "North Carolina Pembroke", but my software has no idea those are the same team. Every now and then I'll catch one of those in a given week and just adjust all the previous weeks to the new name, but this time there were just too many. I just recopied all 4 weeks and reprocessed the whole thing. That's not so bad during week 5, but will get more cumbersome each week if it happens again.

Enough ranting, let's look at the new top of the rankings. Notre Dame is #1, after beating my previous #1, Stanford. That gives them a huge boost in strength of schedule. 7 of the 21 undefeated teams lost, bringing us to just 14. We're starting to see a little bit of separation and sorting not just on record, with 4-1 Stanford and 4-0 NC State ranked above 5-0 Cincinnati.

All 4 winless teams lost again, and UTEP remains #129. It's a little weird to see traditional powerhouses like UCLA and Nebraska down there, being propped up just a little by their stronger conference schedules.

1Notre Dame5-0
2LSU5-0
3Clemson5-0
4Alabama5-0
5Georgia5-0
6Ohio State5-0
7Kentucky5-0
8Oklahoma5-0
9Stanford4-1
10NC State4-0
11Cincinnati5-0
12Hawai'i5-1
13Washington4-1
14South Florida4-0
15Texas4-1
16West Virginia4-0
17Oklahoma State4-1
18Syracuse4-1
19Washington State4-1
20Penn State4-1
21Indiana4-1
22Florida4-1
23Auburn4-1
24Duke4-1
25Troy4-1
26Michigan4-1
27North Texas4-1
28Miami4-1
29UCF4-0
30Boston College4-1
31Oregon4-1
32Buffalo4-1
33Army3-2
34BYU3-2
35Boise State3-1
36USC3-2
37San Diego State3-1
38California3-1
39Louisiana Tech3-1
40Colorado4-0
41Michigan State3-1
42Wake Forest3-2
43Coastal Carolina3-2
44Maryland3-1
45Texas Tech3-2
46Virginia3-2
47Vanderbilt3-2
48TCU3-2
49Georgia Southern3-1
50Wisconsin3-1
51Ole Miss3-2
52Virginia Tech3-1
53Missouri3-1
54Texas A&M3-2
55Arizona State3-2
56Baylor3-2
57Iowa3-1
58Mississippi State3-2
59Arkansas State3-2
60Minnesota3-1
61Florida State3-2
62Marshall3-1
63Fresno State3-1
64UAB3-1
65Appalachian State3-1
66Western Michigan3-2
67Florida Intl3-2
68Houston3-1
69Memphis3-2
70South Carolina2-2
71Utah State3-1
72Nevada3-2
73Utah2-2
74Tulane2-3
75Tennessee2-3
76Illinois2-2
77Georgia State2-3
78Temple2-3
79Georgia Tech2-3
80Middle Tennessee2-2
81Ohio2-2
82Navy2-2
83Kansas State2-3
84SMU2-3
85East Carolina2-2
86Wyoming2-3
87Toledo2-2
88Eastern Michigan2-3
89Pittsburgh2-3
90UL Monroe2-3
91Florida Atlantic2-3
92Louisville2-3
93Southern Mississippi2-2
94UNLV2-2
95Akron2-1
96New Mexico2-2
97UMass2-4
98Kansas2-3
99Northern Illinois2-3
100Purdue2-3
101Ball State2-3
102Arizona2-3
103UConn1-4
104UTSA2-3
105Charlotte2-3
106Iowa State1-3
107North Carolina1-3
108Northwestern1-3
109Louisiana1-3
110Tulsa1-3
111Air Force1-3
112Colorado State1-4
113Rice1-4
114Rutgers1-4
115Miami (OH)1-4
116South Alabama1-4
117Central Michigan1-4
T-118Arkansas1-4
T-118Kent State1-4
120Bowling Green1-4
121Old Dominion1-4
122Oregon State1-4
123Western Kentucky1-4
124San Jose State0-4
125UCLA0-4
126New Mexico State1-4
127Texas State1-3
128Nebraska0-4
129UTEP0-5

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford

2018-09-28

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 4, Thursday

Los Angeles Rams over Miami

4-0 is a strong start, and I've got the Rams as the first team to cross a 90% chance of making the playoffs. They were also first to cross 80%, on Sunday, a full week earlier than last year's team. The Rams haven't started off this well since 2001, when the clock operator stole their chance of a kick return TD to win their second Superbowl in 3 years. I'm still not sure if I can root for them yet, but I don't have anyone else to root for either.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
LAR4-00.60184.7992.8882.7549.3629.1316.72
MIA3-00.54768.7381.6165.2634.5618.139.25
BAL2-10.57040.9263.8346.8425.9014.247.60
KC3-00.53464.2076.6357.6329.5614.987.45
WAS2-10.54845.1762.6545.3323.8012.146.32
JAC2-10.53540.3554.3436.7918.799.554.76
CHI2-10.51946.5158.3538.8618.949.064.46
CIN2-10.52029.0950.9334.0116.828.324.02
CAR2-10.52330.6849.2132.9116.257.863.90
TB2-10.51633.1151.2534.2316.667.933.88
PHI2-10.51031.7047.3830.4214.586.873.32
TEN2-10.49736.0047.5328.9813.616.382.94
NYJ1-20.53817.0735.1322.0011.245.752.88
NO2-10.50123.9241.0925.8112.115.602.66
DEN2-10.48123.0038.1822.4610.174.592.04
CLE1-1-10.50215.3330.5818.528.824.201.96
PIT1-1-10.49714.6629.5517.658.303.911.80
SEA1-20.5028.5328.9516.587.633.611.72
GB1-1-10.47622.9834.2319.598.613.761.69
IND1-20.49318.8926.7915.447.183.341.53
ATL1-20.49112.2823.4413.466.122.781.29
LAC1-20.4829.8623.1212.895.852.661.19
NYG1-20.48311.5021.6012.405.562.481.13
DET1-20.46916.5323.5912.935.582.401.06
SF1-20.4735.9521.5411.645.022.230.99
MIN1-2-10.46313.9821.4911.364.822.040.89
DAL1-20.46511.6319.0310.324.451.900.83
NE1-20.4607.8416.368.763.801.650.70
BUF1-20.4396.3511.545.822.400.990.40
HOU0-30.4694.757.844.021.770.790.34
OAK0-30.4452.936.042.941.220.510.21
ARI0-30.4100.733.301.420.520.200.08

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami