New England won as expected on Monday night, and is still favored to win the Superbowl over Carolina. They are note quite 100% into the playoffs, but they are over 99.995%, which rounds up to 100.00 the way I have it displayed. It's actually over 99.999% when I look at the raw numbers. When they really clinch, you'll see a "+" in that field. They did eliminate Miami from winning the AFC East. That seemed unlikely to me, so I double checked the tiebreakers.
If Miami and New England finish in a 2-way tie at the top of the division, they'll both be 1-1 in the first tiebreaker, head to head. The second tiebreaker is divisional record, and New England would only fall to 4-2 by losing out, while Miami can only reach 2-4 by winning out, thus losing the tiebreaker.
So what if Miami, New England, and Buffalo all finish 10-6? Buffalo has already beat Miami twice, and New England has already beaten Buffalo twice. That clinches the head to head tiebreaker for New England, who is 3-1 to Buffalo's 2-2 and Miami's 1-3.
How about Miami, New England, and New York at 10-6? Head to Head, all three teams would be 2-2, and the next tiebreaker is divisional record. Since New England can be at worst 4-2, Miami can only reach 2-4, and New York would be either 3-3 or 2-4 depending on their result against Buffalo, New England has clinched that scenario as well.
In the case all 4 teams tie at 10-6, head to head and divisional record are the same thing. Either New England will win it at 4-2, or New York and Miami will be eliminated by that tiebreaker, and New England and Buffalo will revert to the two-team tiebreaker, which, as I said, will go to New England having beaten Buffalo twice.
So, I'm satisfied Miami cannot win the AFC East. I believe Buffalo or New York are going to need to win 11 games to have any shot at winning the division over New England, though I haven't quite worked all the possible ways they can all 3 finish 10-6 to prove it yet.
First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 9, Thursday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 11, Final)
First team eliminated from winning a division: Miami (Week 11, Final)
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]