2020-09-20

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 3

We added 10 teams to the rankings this week, up to 52. One more FCS team took the field for the first time, Abilene Christian, so there are a total of 61 teams that have played. We have a lot fewer ties this week, although still a fair number outside the top 10. We've also got a new #1, Miami. I have a feeling with so few games it's going to take longer for things to settle than usual. After just 3 weeks there are only 2 teams with 3 games played, UTEP and Texas State.

Speaking of Texas State, congrats to them for pulling themselves out of last place with a win. Taking over at the bottom is Southern Mississippi, they of the perfect 0-12 2012 season, and the alma mater of Austin Davis, who I was sure could turn the Rams around if they'd just give him a chance.

1Miami2-0
2SMU2-0
3Marshall2-0
4UTSA2-0
5Notre Dame2-0
6Louisiana2-0
7Coastal Carolina2-0
8UTEP2-1
9Clemson2-0
10Army2-0
11Pittsburgh2-0
12Texas1-0
13BYU1-0
T-14Memphis1-0
T-14UCF1-0
16UAB1-1
17Navy1-1
T-18Oklahoma1-0
T-18Oklahoma State1-0
20West Virginia1-0
T-21Boston College1-0
T-21Appalachian State1-1
23Georgia Southern1-0
24NC State1-0
25Troy1-0
26North Carolina1-0
27Tulane1-1
28South Florida1-1
T-29Liberty1-0
T-29Louisville1-1
31Texas Tech1-0
32Texas State1-2
T-33North Texas1-1
T-33Louisiana Tech1-0
35Cincinnati1-0
T-36Arkansas State1-1
T-36Georgia Tech1-1
38South Alabama1-1
T-39Iowa State0-1
T-39Georgia State0-1
41Kansas0-1
42Tulsa0-1
43Charlotte0-1
44Duke0-2
45Wake Forest0-2
46Middle Tennessee0-2
T-47Syracuse0-2
T-47Kansas State0-1
T-47Florida State0-1
50UL Monroe0-2
51Western Kentucky0-2
52Southern Mississippi0-2

2020 History and #1s
Week 1 UAB
Week 2 Army

2020-09-19

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 2, Thursday

Baltimore over Washington

This is usually my least favorite day of projections, because there's only 2 teams that have played 2 games, and there's usually a 2-0 team that appears to be running away with things. This year, instead, we get an 0-2 and a 1-1 team. Cleveland pulled themselves up from the least likely to win this year...by 2 spots. Taking over at the bottom is Cincinnati, but take that with a grain of salt at least until week 2 is over for everyone.

So far I haven't detected any glitches with my new 14-playoff-team software, but I once wrote something for work that, as it turns out, crashed if it was left running without a restart for about 6 months, something that didn't happen until it had been live for about 8 years. So you know...I'm a little cautious to declare anything bug-free, ever.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL1-00.53141.9563.1438.9120.4210.705.64
WAS1-00.51947.7463.9338.8820.1010.385.29
NO1-00.51746.7862.9337.9319.5110.025.08
NE1-00.52439.7060.1636.1818.699.635.00
SEA1-00.51831.0259.2236.1118.629.594.87
KC1-00.52131.1957.2934.4817.719.074.69
BUF1-00.51937.7758.4334.7017.749.054.66
PIT1-00.52036.6557.7634.4417.639.014.65
GB1-00.51137.2759.4035.4418.009.134.57
JAC1-00.51338.9258.7434.6017.468.804.48
CHI1-00.50735.9058.4134.6117.468.804.38
ARI1-00.50829.9056.7533.7417.068.624.30
LAR1-00.50828.3655.8933.1916.748.444.20
LAC1-00.51027.8153.5531.2615.667.833.96
TEN1-00.50633.6055.0231.8515.837.853.94
LV1-00.50627.9951.8829.8914.857.373.70
CAR0-10.49419.9435.3419.139.374.592.22
DAL0-10.49220.0934.1718.178.864.322.09
DET0-10.49313.6331.4316.878.244.021.94
SF0-10.49210.7129.8916.067.823.811.84
MIN0-10.48913.2030.6216.287.893.821.83
NYG0-10.48017.5331.9916.757.973.791.78
DEN0-10.49413.0128.9515.297.403.581.75
TB0-10.48315.2930.2015.787.553.611.71
ATL0-10.48217.9930.4315.747.523.591.70
PHI0-10.48114.6429.4115.327.293.471.64
IND0-10.48713.3228.6514.867.073.371.63
NYJ0-10.48111.7926.5913.586.393.011.43
HOU0-10.47914.1626.7413.586.362.981.42
CLE1-10.46012.8229.6114.526.512.921.33
MIA0-10.47610.7324.6212.445.792.701.28
CIN0-20.4848.5818.869.444.482.131.02

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington

2020-09-17

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 1

Baltimore over Washington

What's this? Here's a quick rundown originally taken from 2014's introductory post.
Each year I project the Super Bowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.
I'm running a little late for week 1 this year, because all of you out there forgot to remind me there are now 14 playoff teams. I think I successfully implemented this, but we'll see as time goes on. For now at least, the total chances of teams making the playoffs sum to 1400%, so I'll call it good. "WC" should perhaps be renamed, as it represents making it OUT of the wildcard round, to be one of the final 8 teams.

Baltimore is once again the AFC favorite, a position they seem to frequently hold each week 1. They certainly have at least for 3 years running now, and that would have extended to 2017 except the slightly weaker Jacksonville had an even worse looking division than Baltimore to compete against after week 1, giving them the edge.

No one fell below the dreaded 1% mark this year, with even lowly Cleveland at 1.12% likely to win the Super Bowl.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL1-00.53140.5462.2938.3320.1010.525.54
WAS1-00.51947.7063.7738.7420.0410.345.26
NO1-00.51746.7562.9537.9419.5110.025.07
NE1-00.52439.7360.0636.0918.629.594.98
SEA1-00.51831.0159.2436.1318.639.604.87
KC1-00.52131.2157.1634.3817.649.034.67
BUF1-00.51937.7958.3234.5917.679.014.64
GB1-00.51137.2659.4335.4518.009.134.57
PIT1-00.52035.1856.7433.7517.258.814.54
JAC1-00.51338.9058.3834.3117.308.704.43
CHI1-00.50735.9058.4234.6317.478.804.37
ARI1-00.50829.9056.7833.7617.068.614.29
LAR1-00.50828.3755.9433.2316.768.454.21
LAC1-00.51027.8753.6031.2915.667.833.95
TEN1-00.50633.5954.6631.5715.687.773.90
LV1-00.50627.8951.4929.6314.717.293.66
CAR0-10.49419.9535.3819.169.384.592.22
DAL0-10.49220.1034.0518.098.834.312.08
DET0-10.49313.6331.4816.908.254.031.94
SF0-10.49210.7329.9516.107.853.831.84
MIN0-10.48913.2130.6816.327.913.841.84
NYG0-10.48017.5531.8916.707.943.781.78
DEN0-10.49413.0428.9015.257.383.571.75
CIN0-10.49014.8929.5715.417.403.551.73
TB0-10.48315.2930.2615.817.563.621.71
ATL0-10.48218.0030.4815.777.543.601.70
PHI0-10.48114.6529.3015.267.273.461.63
IND0-10.48713.3428.3814.706.993.321.60
NYJ0-10.48111.7526.3213.426.312.971.42
HOU0-10.47914.1726.5013.436.292.951.40
MIA0-10.47610.7324.5712.405.782.691.27
CLE0-10.4699.3923.0611.435.242.401.12

2020-09-13

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 2

A few more teams have begun play, although with very little conference crossover, rankings won't be very meaningful this year. Still, I'll keep posting results just to see what happens. Army jumped to the top of the board this week with a 2-0 record. This is where the feedback loop eats itself, because Army beat the 2 best 0-1 teams, Middle Tennessee and Old Monroe, who are only the best 0-1 teams because they lost to the best team...Army. But it's a fun distraction early in the season. Let's see how many of my #1 teams end up unranked by the real polls by the end of the season.

1Army2-0
2Miami1-0
3Memphis1-0
3Texas1-0
3Tulane1-0
6UAB1-1
7BYU1-0
7Clemson1-0
7Oklahoma1-0
7Notre Dame1-0
7North Carolina1-0
7Louisiana1-0
7Appalachian State1-0
7Georgia Tech1-0
7Georgia Southern1-0
7South Florida1-0
7Louisville1-0
7Coastal Carolina1-0
19South Alabama1-1
19Arkansas State1-1
19UTEP1-1
22Marshall1-0
22SMU1-0
22North Texas1-0
22West Virginia1-0
22UTSA1-0
22Texas Tech1-0
28Pittsburgh1-0
29Middle Tennessee0-1
29UL Monroe0-1
31Navy0-1
31Wake Forest0-1
31Duke0-1
31Syracuse0-1
31Iowa State0-1
31Charlotte0-1
31Florida State0-1
31Western Kentucky0-1
31Kansas0-1
40Southern Mississippi0-1
40Kansas State0-1
42Texas State0-2

2020 History and #1s
Week 1 UAB

2020-09-10

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 1

If you already know what this is, you can skip the italics. Otherwise, read what I've been copying/pasting/modifying each year to star the season:

A few years ago, I thought to myself, "I could do a better job than some of the BCS computers". As I recall, at the time I felt Mizzou was underrated. The BCS rules stated margin of victory cannot be used, so I thought I'd stick to that. I put together a convergence algorithm, in which I initially rank the teams by record (so all the undefeated teams start tied at #1), then calculate each team's strength of schedule based on the current rankings of its opponents, and re-sort based on that strength. I run through this process until 2 consecutive iterations give the same result, or there is a loop. So, if iteration 10,002 gives the same rankings as iteration 10,000, then each subsequent iteration would fluctuate between the rankings in 10,000 and 10,001. I average those rankings to come up with the final rankings. It is still possible - but generally unlikely - that teams can tie for a final ranking. Now that the BCS is dead, I'll just consider these rankings my advice on #1 to #4 to the College Football Playoff committee.

Due to most teams playing other teams in lower divisions at times, and a lack of desire on my part to delve so deeply that I have to track down NAIA schedules, I've decided to count all games listed on ESPN's college football site, which includes all FBS, FCS, and Division II and III schedules, and any of their lower-tier opponents, but only when those opponents play at least a Division III team. (i.e., an NAIA team will be listed when they play against a Div III team, but the rest of their games won't be listed, resulting in a lot of 0-1 teams mixed into my system). I then filter the final results to only the FBS schools.

In the past, in week 1, there were only 2 possible situations for a team. First is to be 1-0, having defeated an 0-1 team. Second is, unsurprisingly, to be a 0-1 team, having lost to a 1-0 team. For this reason, in week 1, all 1-0 teams will be tied for #1, and the rest tied at N+1, where N is the number of #1 teams. Did your team choose to beat up on an FCS (formerly known as Division 1-AA) team? Congrats, you're #1 this week! However, since 2016 we seem to be in the era of the pre-Week-1 game, which means a 2-0, 0-2, and/or 1-1 team might be in the mix. Also, some teams may not play in Week 1, and you don't get a ranking until you play, thus the bottom of the chart may not be the full number of teams in FBS.

While there are still the same 130 FBS teams this year as there were last year, that whole "you don't get a ranking until you play" thing is going to be very obvious this year. In addition to 4 FCS schools not listed, only 14 schools have played a game. There are a few more than that who currently plan to eventually play, but for now, UAB gets the #1 spot, basically for defeating a 1-1 team, while the other 1-0 teams beat 0-1 teams.

1UAB1-0
2South Alabama1-0
2Marshall1-0
2Army1-0
2SMU1-0
2North Texas1-0
2Memphis1-0
2UTEP1-0
2BYU1-0
10Southern Mississippi0-1
10Middle Tennessee0-1
10Texas State0-1
10Arkansas State0-1
10Navy0-1


2020-09-06

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Final

I was always a really good student, but I think I needed that deadline in front of me to make sure I finished things. Here's the final rankings from last year's college football season. I sort of stopped one game short and neglected to ever post the final. As expected, the winner became my #1 team, so there's no big drama there. In fact, no teams moved, LSU just became a stronger #1 as the internal numbers go. 

So that's that for 2019. I'll post 2020 after the first "week" ends on Labor Day. Obviously it will be a little different this year, but I'll enter the games that do get played into my algorithm and see what comes out.

1LSU15-0
2Clemson14-1
3Ohio State13-1
4Oregon12-2
5Appalachian State13-1
6Georgia12-2
7Memphis12-2
8Oklahoma12-2
9Boise State12-2
10Florida11-2
11Penn State11-2
12Notre Dame11-2
13Utah11-3
14Navy11-2
15Cincinnati11-3
16Baylor11-3
17Minnesota11-2
18Alabama11-2
19Air Force11-2
20Florida Atlantic11-3
21Louisiana11-3
22Wisconsin10-4
23Iowa10-3
24UCF10-3
25SMU10-3
26Hawai'i10-5
27San Diego State10-3
28Auburn9-4
29Michigan9-4
30Virginia9-5
31Louisiana Tech10-3
32Western Kentucky9-4
33Louisville8-5
34Washington8-5
35USC8-5
36Tennessee8-5
37Texas8-5
38Arizona State8-5
39Kansas State8-5
40Pittsburgh8-5
41Oklahoma State8-5
42Kentucky8-5
43Marshall8-5
44Wake Forest8-5
45California8-5
46Texas A&M8-5
47Miami (OH)8-6
48Buffalo8-5
49Virginia Tech8-5
50UAB9-5
51Arkansas State8-5
52Wyoming8-5
53Temple8-5
54Iowa State7-6
55Central Michigan8-6
56BYU7-6
57Utah State7-6
58North Carolina7-6
59Indiana8-5
60Michigan State7-6
61Kent State7-6
62Western Michigan7-6
63Georgia Southern7-6
64Liberty8-5
65Tulane7-6
66Southern Mississippi7-6
67Georgia State7-6
68Nevada7-6
69Ohio7-6
70Mississippi State6-7
71Florida State6-7
72Miami6-7
73Charlotte7-6
74Boston College6-7
75Missouri6-6
76Eastern Michigan6-7
77Toledo6-6
78Washington State6-7
79Duke5-7
80West Virginia5-7
81Florida International6-7
82Oregon State5-7
83Illinois6-7
84TCU5-7
85Colorado5-7
86Syracuse5-7
87UL Monroe5-7
88Ball State5-7
89South Carolina4-8
90Northern Illinois5-7
91Nebraska5-7
92Troy5-7
93Tulsa4-8
94UCLA4-8
95Coastal Carolina5-7
96South Florida4-8
97San Jose State5-7
98Army5-8
99Houston4-8
100Stanford4-8
101Fresno State4-8
102Arizona4-8
103Ole Miss4-8
104Texas Tech4-8
105Purdue4-8
106NC State4-8
107Middle Tennessee4-8
108UNLV4-8
109Colorado State4-8
110East Carolina4-8
111North Texas4-8
112UTSA4-8
113Georgia Tech3-9
114Texas State3-9
115Kansas3-9
116Bowling Green3-9
117Maryland3-9
118Vanderbilt3-9
119Northwestern3-9
120Rice3-9
121Rutgers2-10
T-122New Mexico2-10
T-122Arkansas2-10
124South Alabama2-10
125UConn2-10
126New Mexico State2-10
127Old Dominion1-11
128UTEP1-11
129UMass1-11
130Akron0-12

2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech
Week 3 Auburn
Week 4 Auburn
Week 5 Auburn
Week 6 Ohio State
Week 7 Ohio State
Week 8 Ohio State
Week 9 Ohio State
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson
Week 14 Ohio State
Week 15 Ohio State
Week 16 Ohio State
Week 17 Ohio State
Week 18 Clemson
Week 19 LSU

2020-06-14

November Card Show Autographs

The lack of card shows for the past few months has given me ample opportunity to get caught up. Now if I could just convince myself to do so. These are from November, 2018. Just 3 more posts and I should be under a year behind and can at least leave behind the embarrassing need to specify the year. This was an interesting show, featuring a relatively unknown Cardinal with an otherwise famous name, Mike Tyson, and the rare-for-this-show current rising star, Luke Voit, although he had already been traded to the Yankees by this point.

Mike TysonLuke Voit 45


Mike played for the Cardinals through the 70s, as the starting shortshop (per baseball-reference's metrics) in 1973-74, and the starting second baseman in 1977-78. Those were lean years for the Cardinals, with no playoffs between 1968 and 1982, which tends to leave those players forgotten. I noticed he had a -0.3 WAR for his career, but looking deeper I saw he had a 1.2 in 8 years with St. Louis, followed by a -1.5 in 2 years with the Cubs.

Luke Voit grew up just outside St. Louis, was drafted by the Royals out of high school, then by the Cardinals 4 years later and 10 rounds higher. Being the data tracker that I am, I can see that I purchased the autograph ticket for him in March of 2018, when he had played just 62 games for the Cardinals in his rookie season of 2017. The list price was $15, which is about as cheap as ball autographs ever get at this show (although with the caveat that they run 30%-50% off sales frequently, alas my data isn't that detailed to know what I actually spent). Everyone seemed pretty high on him as a prospect, but by July he played just 8 games for the Cardinals and was traded to New York. He did get into 39 more games there for the year. 

I guess growing up with the Rams in town, he was still following them, because he noticed my Rams jacket and asked if I thought they could win that day. They were currently 8-0 and going to New Orleans that day. We agreed it would be tough but they should pull it off. The Rams lost 45-35.

When I was pulling up this picture, I had to do an image search online for Luke Voit's autograph, because I was sure I had taken a photo of the wrong ball. It seems to match what's online. Somewhere in there is an L and V I suppose, although I really feel like I see an S or two.

2020-04-14

October Card Show Autograph

You know the deal by now. I'm catching up on my backlog of autographs. This one's from October, 2018. It was the last year of a 3-year playoff drought for the Cardinals, but I managed to meet 2 World Champions that October to make up for it.

Glenn Brummer
82 WSC
Dick Groat

Glenn Brummer is most famous in St. Louis for stealing home in an extra-inning game in 1982. He was the backup catcher that year, playing in just 35 games, mostly as a late-inning replacement for Darrell Porter. Gene Tenace was also on the team as a catcher, but was primarily used as a pinch hitter. At the autograph signing Glenn could best be compared to Don Rickles. He never stopped smiling, laughing, and playfully jabbing at and joking with the fans in line.

Dick Groat was almost 88 years old as of this signing, so he was a bit more reserved. I really only have one Dick Groat story, which I've shared on here before, and it's not even mine, it's my Dad's.  I believe it was at game 7 of the 1964 World Series. The crowd stormed the field, and when he and his  friend found each other again after getting separated in the crowd, the first thing he told my dad was "I touched Dick Groat!" Which, as I said before, would be a great name for a blog if you were for some reason a hybrid Cardinals/Pirates fan.

2020-04-09

A Contest at ARPSmith's Sportscard Obsession

I've been a little lax in posting lately, so I figured I'd take the opportunity for a quick and easy one to fill in the gap. Over at ARPSmith's Sportscard Obsession, which I feel like I've been reading for 10 years even though it's only been around for 8, there's a simple Price Is Right style contest. Guess the price of a lot consisting of 3 autograph cards, win a prize. I guess on the Price is Right you win the actual thing you were bidding on, but the idea holds. Oh, also it doesn't say closest without going over. Man, this analogy is falling apart. I need some sleep.

Go guess! Before April 16!

2020-04-04

September Card Show Autograph

I must once again shamefully point out that this autograph is not from last September, but 2018. Let's see if I can stick with my goal of catching up.

Cesar Cedeno
Cesar Cedeno played for the Cardinals for part of just a single season, but it was a good one - 1985. He joined the team in August, acquired for a minor leaguer. They won the NL, and came tantalizingly close to winning the World Series. He then left for Los Angeles, played in 37 games early in the season, but was released June 5, 1986. Baseball-Reference says he was then re-signed by the Cardinals in July that year, but he did not wind up playing any games for them in 1986.

2020-04-01

Phil Niekro Appreciation

Happy Birthday to the man, the legend, the knuckleballer, Phil Niekro.

1988 Score #555 Phil Niekro
Despite being very Cardinals-centric collector, I've had Phil on my blog not once, not twice, but four times before:

eBay Wins #5
eBay Wins #121
eBay Wins #217
eBay Wins #233

Ok, so I'm no superfan, his cards have just shown up a few times in my sometimes random eBay lot purchases.

Happy Birthday Phil!

2020-02-02

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Championship Sunday

San Francisco over Kansas City

I'm a little late in posting this, but I got it in before the next game, so I'll call that a win. San Francisco remains the favorite, as they have been in the NFC since week 5. Kansas City has come back from early deficits in both games of the playoffs so far, so I won't count them out even if they give up some points early. This is one of the closer games since I've been projecting

XLVI New England over New York (78%)
XLVII San Francisco over Baltimore (67%)
XLVIII Seattle over Denver (63%)
XLIX Seattle over New England (55%)
50 Carolina over Denver (71%)
LI New England over Atlanta (70%)
LII Philadelphia over New England (50.6%)
LIII Los Angeles over New England (52%)

Now these are not locks, they're likelihood projections, but if you just take the favorite each year as my pick, the system is only 3-5. I'd have done just as well by just picking New England every year during the preseason. I'm kind of smelling another upset this year too, but we'll see what happens.

But who am I rooting for?

San Francisco (54%) vs Kansas City
Kansas City, of course. They're pretty much my #1 team now. Go Chefs!




TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF13-30.786++++++++++54.0
KC12-40.758++++++++++46.0
BAL14-20.869++++++---
NE12-40.866++++----
MIN10-60.708-++++---
NO13-30.708++++----
TEN9-70.642-++++++--
BUF10-60.640-++----
GB13-30.634++++++++--
PHI9-70.563++++----
SEA11-50.513-++++---
HOU10-60.486++++++---

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 17] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Divisional Saturday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Divisional Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City

2020-01-13

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Divisional Sunday

San Francisco over Kansas City

I really thought Kansas City would lose after giving up the first 24 points of the game, but they came back to score 51 and only allow 7 more, completing a Scorigami in the process. I didn't get to watch the Green Bay game, but it didn't seem like it was every really in doubt, despite the eventual close finish.

Tennessee at Kansas City (64%)
Once again, I've got to root for Kansas City in this one.

Green Bay at San Francisco (68%)
Since this is the second game of the day, I think it'll be contingent on the first. If Kansas City wins, I'll root for Green Bay just for the fun of a Super Bowl I rematch. If Tennessee wins, I'll root for San Francisco, because that's the only combination that gives me a glimmer of hope in Collector's Crack's 10th Annual Almost the Easiest Super Bowl Contest on the Web. I didn't pick Tennessee, but no one else did either, but I did pick San Francisco to lose (to New England). Then, I just need exactly 48 or 49 points to be scored, including 3 Field Goals to tie another entrant and exactly 4 to win outright. Piece of cake, right?

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF13-30.786++++++++67.9939.99
KC12-40.758++++++++63.6433.02
TEN9-70.641-++++++36.3614.01
GB13-30.634++++++++32.0112.98
BAL14-20.869++++++---
NE12-40.866++++----
MIN10-60.707-++++---
NO13-30.707++++----
BUF10-60.640-++----
PHI9-70.562++++----
SEA11-50.513-++++---
HOU10-60.486++++++---

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 17] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Divisional Saturday] San Francisco over Kansas City

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 20

We crossed a Saturday, so what the heck, let's call it another week. There were just 2 games since my last rankings. First was just another FBS bowl, Louisiana over Miami-Ohio.  The other game was the FCS title game, which went to North Dakota State for the 8th time in 9 years. They beat James Madison, the only other school to win the title in that span (2016).

Those results caused Louisiana to jump from #28 to #21, Miami to lose one place down to #47. Other seemingly random teams to move around were Liberty up one spot over Tulane at #64, Troy passing Tulsa at #92, and Arkansas moving from #123 to a tie with New Mexico for #122.

There's one game left, which should put the winner of LSU and Clemson atop my rankings.

1LSU14-0
2Clemson14-0
3Ohio State13-1
4Oregon12-2
5Appalachian State13-1
6Georgia12-2
7Memphis12-2
8Oklahoma12-2
9Boise State12-2
10Florida11-2
11Penn State11-2
12Notre Dame11-2
13Utah11-3
14Navy11-2
15Cincinnati11-3
16Baylor11-3
17Minnesota11-2
18Alabama11-2
19Air Force11-2
20Florida Atlantic11-3
21Louisiana11-3
22Wisconsin10-4
23Iowa10-3
24UCF10-3
25SMU10-3
26Hawai'i10-5
27San Diego State10-3
28Auburn9-4
29Michigan9-4
30Virginia9-5
31Louisiana Tech10-3
32Western Kentucky9-4
33Louisville8-5
34Washington8-5
35USC8-5
36Tennessee8-5
37Texas8-5
38Arizona State8-5
39Kansas State8-5
40Pittsburgh8-5
41Oklahoma State8-5
42Kentucky8-5
43Marshall8-5
44Wake Forest8-5
45California8-5
46Texas A&M8-5
47Miami (OH)8-6
48Buffalo8-5
49Virginia Tech8-5
50UAB9-5
51Arkansas State8-5
52Wyoming8-5
53Temple8-5
54Iowa State7-6
55Central Michigan8-6
56BYU7-6
57Utah State7-6
58North Carolina7-6
59Indiana8-5
60Michigan State7-6
61Kent State7-6
62Western Michigan7-6
63Georgia Southern7-6
64Liberty8-5
65Tulane7-6
66Southern Mississippi7-6
67Georgia State7-6
68Nevada7-6
69Ohio7-6
70Mississippi State6-7
71Florida State6-7
72Miami6-7
73Charlotte7-6
74Boston College6-7
75Missouri6-6
76Eastern Michigan6-7
77Toledo6-6
78Washington State6-7
79Duke5-7
80West Virginia5-7
81Florida International6-7
82Oregon State5-7
83Illinois6-7
84TCU5-7
85Colorado5-7
86Syracuse5-7
87UL Monroe5-7
88Ball State5-7
89South Carolina4-8
90Northern Illinois5-7
91Nebraska5-7
92Troy5-7
93Tulsa4-8
94UCLA4-8
95Coastal Carolina5-7
96South Florida4-8
97San Jose State5-7
98Army5-8
99Houston4-8
100Stanford4-8
101Fresno State4-8
102Arizona4-8
103Ole Miss4-8
104Texas Tech4-8
105Purdue4-8
106NC State4-8
107Middle Tennessee4-8
108UNLV4-8
109Colorado State4-8
110East Carolina4-8
111North Texas4-8
112UTSA4-8
113Georgia Tech3-9
114Texas State3-9
115Kansas3-9
116Bowling Green3-9
117Maryland3-9
118Vanderbilt3-9
119Northwestern3-9
120Rice3-9
121Rutgers2-10
T-122New Mexico2-10
T-122Arkansas2-10
124South Alabama2-10
125UConn2-10
126New Mexico State2-10
127Old Dominion1-11
128UTEP1-11
129UMass1-11
130Akron0-12

2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech
Week 3 Auburn
Week 4 Auburn
Week 5 Auburn
Week 6 Ohio State
Week 7 Ohio State
Week 8 Ohio State
Week 9 Ohio State
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson
Week 14 Ohio State
Week 15 Ohio State
Week 16 Ohio State
Week 17 Ohio State
Week 18 Clemson
Week 19 LSU

2020-01-12

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Divisional Saturday

San Francisco over Kansas City

Both teams I was rooting for won yesterday, San Francisco over Minnesota, and Tennessee in a surprisingly dominant win over Baltimore. Kansas City now becomes the first AFC team to be projected to make the Superbowl other than Baltimore or New England all season long.

Sunday games!

Houston at Kansas City (77%)
Kansas City is my default favorite team, so I'll pretty much always root for them. I don't think I can think of a matchup that would make me root against them, without some other side bet in play.

Seattle at Green Bay (62%)
In that past I'd root for Green Bay for sure, but I've grown to like Seattle a little bit. I think I'll still root for Green Bay, but I won't hate whichever team gets to take on San Francisco next week.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF13-30.786++++++++71.744.3
KC12-40.758++++++76.848.825.4
TEN9-70.641-++++++43.116.8
GB13-30.634++++++62.119.98.7
SEA11-50.513-++++37.98.42.7
HOU10-60.486++++++23.28.02.1
BAL14-20.869++++++---
NE12-40.866++++----
MIN10-60.707-++++---
NO13-30.707++++----
BUF10-60.640-++----
PHI9-70.562++++----

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 17] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco

2020-01-06

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Wildcard Sunday

Baltimore over San Francisco

The #1 seeds are still my favorites to make it to the Superbowl. Minnesota beat New Orleans, and Seattle beat Philadelphia, in a victory for the eye test over the numbers. Seattle has a lot of very small wins and a few big losses this year, skewing their strength well below their record.

Onto next weekend!

Minnesota at San Francisco (60%)
For being favored all year, I feel like San Francisco should be a bigger favorite in their first playoff game. I've never been a huge Kirk Cousins fan, so let's root for Jimmy Garoppolo and San Francisco to win this one.

Tennessee at Baltimore (79%)
There's that dominant number I come to expect. But, just to throw a monkey wrench into everything, let's root for Tennessee in this one. Neither team really grabs my attention either way, but Tennessee would be quite the Cinderella story, and also potentially make the path easier for Kansas City.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL14-20.869++++++78.857.141.1
SF13-30.786++++++60.343.219.8
KC12-40.758++++++76.829.716.5
MIN10-60.707-++++39.724.89.0
GB13-30.634++++++62.222.36.6
TEN9-70.641-++++21.29.13.9
SEA11-50.513-++++37.89.62.0
HOU10-60.486++++++23.24.01.1
NE12-40.866++++----
DAL8-80.711------
NO13-30.707++++----
BUF10-60.640-++----
PHI9-70.562++++----
LAR9-70.559------
TB7-90.515------
LAC5-110.482------
IND7-90.476------
ATL7-90.466------
PIT8-80.465------
CHI8-80.454------
DEN7-90.416------
CLE6-100.383------
ARI5-10-10.353------
DET3-12-10.344------
NYJ7-90.313------
NYG4-120.302------
JAC6-100.302------
OAK7-90.295------
CAR5-110.275------
CIN2-140.227------
MIA5-110.193------
WAS3-130.187------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: Baltimore (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 14, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 15, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 16, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 17] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco