2012-12-31

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 17

New England over Seattle

I really hope that isn't the matchup. I'm bound by my Rams fandom to dislike both of these teams.

For once, I was home all day Sunday, but I still lost track of what was going on during the day. The Sunday night game proved to be a good choice, as it was winner-take-all, and loser-go-home. Losses by other teams could have made it simply a game for position.

New England and Seattle are pretty evenly matched in strength. So much so, in fact, that my 3 decimal places doesn't show the difference. To another decimal place, New England is at 0.8259, and Seattle at 0.8256. In a matchup between them, at their current strengths, 49.949% of the time, Seattle would win, and 50.051% of the time, New England would.

You know who I think will win based on the math, but here's who I want to win each game:

Seattle at Washington
This is a tough one. As mentioned above, I'm bound to dislike Seattle, but the worse Washington does, the higher their pick, which is now our pick, thanks to the trade they made to get RGIII. I'll root Seattle in this one, at least to give the NFC West some legitimacy.

Minnesota at Green Bay
These are both teams I would tend to root for if they were playing many other teams, but I think Green Bay ranks above Minnesota, so I'll root for the Packers.

Cincinnati at Houston
I don't feel very strongly about either team in this one, so I'll root for the better uniform of Houston.

Indianapolis at Baltimore
Indy. That's the first easy one. I wonder how many people in Baltimore are looking forward to beating the old Baltimore Colts, much the way there's a little extra in the fans' cheering against the Arizona Cardinals in St. Louis. Of course, both cities are hypocritical if there's any anger in that cheering, since the new teams were also "stolen" from other markets.

So I've picked 2 home teams and 2 road teams, and 3 of the 4 are favorites by my count.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE12-40.826+++74.55542.33225.355
SEA11-50.826-+76.95647.96431.45717.017
DEN13-30.821+++75.11841.45824.508
SF11-4-10.754+++54.06227.54112.013
ATL13-30.733+++52.69124.97510.238
GB11-50.681++62.32625.5929.9473.510
HOU12-40.665++52.11315.3505.6082.187
CIN10-60.646-+47.88713.6074.6331.716
BAL10-60.607++66.31516.5165.0611.692
WAS10-60.586++23.0447.6382.8090.755
MIN10-60.563-+37.67412.0533.2710.823
IND11-50.440-+33.6854.8530.9080.187

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 25% Chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 17)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch a playoff berth: New England, Houston, Denver, Atlanta (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Atlanta (Week 16, Saturday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Saturday]
[Week 16, Final]

2012-12-30

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 18

13 more bowls actually caused more than half of the teams to change position this week, with San Jose State going from #19 to #10, and all teams higher staying put. Like I said, the movers were too numerous to mention, but I couldn't resist investigating why Colorado and UNLV swapped spots at #115 and #116.

UNLV played both Air Force and Minnesota, two teams who lost this week. Colorado played Fresno State and UCLA, who also lost this week, but also played Arizona State, bowl winners. Apparently this was enough to tick their strength of schedule up just enough to put them ahead of not 4, but now 5 FBS teams.

1Notre Dame12-0
2Ohio State12-0
3Alabama12-1
4Florida11-1
5Stanford11-2
6Kansas State11-1
7Oregon11-1
8Georgia11-2
9Northern Illinois12-1
10San Jose State11-2
11Texas A&M10-2
12Oklahoma10-2
13Florida State11-2
14South Carolina10-2
15Utah State11-2
16LSU10-2
17Kent State11-2
18Nebraska10-3
19Boise State11-2
20Cincinnati10-3
21Clemson10-2
22Louisville10-2
23Oregon State9-4
24Texas9-4
25Tulsa10-3
26UCLA9-5
27UCF10-4
28Toledo9-4
29Baylor8-5
30Northwestern9-3
31Ball State9-4
32Arkansas State9-3
33Rutgers9-4
34Arizona8-5
35San Diego State9-4
36Syracuse8-5
37Fresno State9-4
38Michigan8-4
39Wisconsin8-5
40Louisiana Tech9-3
41Penn State8-4
42Louisiana-Lafayette9-4
43Texas Tech8-5
44Arizona State8-5
45Mississippi State8-4
46Ohio9-4
47North Carolina8-4
48Vanderbilt8-4
49Oklahoma State7-5
50Brigham Young8-5
51Michigan State7-6
52Navy8-5
53USC7-5
54West Virginia7-6
55Middle Tennessee8-4
56Miami (FL)7-5
57East Carolina8-5
58Louisiana-Monroe8-5
59TCU7-6
60Washington7-6
61Virginia Tech7-6
62Bowling Green8-5
63North Carolina State7-5
64Iowa State6-6
65Southern Methodist7-6
66Ole Miss6-6
67Pittsburgh6-6
68Central Michigan7-6
69Duke6-7
70Western Kentucky7-6
71Purdue6-6
72Nevada7-6
73Minnesota6-7
74Rice7-6
75Georgia Tech6-7
76Missouri5-7
77Utah5-7
78Tennessee5-7
79Wake Forest5-7
80Air Force6-7
81Arkansas4-8
82Connecticut5-7
83Iowa4-8
84Houston5-7
85Marshall5-7
86Troy5-7
87Virginia4-8
88Temple4-7
89Indiana4-8
90Miami (OH)4-8
91Buffalo4-8
92Wyoming4-8
93North Texas4-8
94Colorado State4-8
95California3-9
96Western Michigan4-8
97Maryland4-8
98South Florida3-9
98Memphis4-8
100Auburn3-9
101Washington State3-9
102Florida Atlantic3-9
103New Mexico4-9
104Kentucky2-10
105Florida International3-9
106UTEP3-9
107UAB3-9
108Eastern Michigan2-10
109Hawaii3-9
110Illinois2-10
111Boston College2-10
112Army2-10
113Kansas1-11
114Tulane2-10
115Colorado1-11
116UNLV2-11
117Idaho1-11
118Akron1-11
119New Mexico State1-11
120Southern Miss0-12

2012-12-28

eBay Wins #50

This win is actually from two auctions. A seller had a bunch of 1992 Donruss team sets, and I won two of them at 19 cents each for 15 cards each.  Since I started collecting in 1992, but definitely saw Topps as the best card company, these cards used to represent some kind of "Evil Empire" to me, by their very existence. It's funny how things can turn around in 20 years; I'd love to see some Donruss out there now in addition to Topps. Let's see which Phillies and Blue Jays had cards in '92.

1992 Donruss
#8 Eddie Zosky
#11 Andy Ashby
#28 Roberto Alomar
#57 Lenny Dykstra
#58 Roberto Alomar
#65 Kelly Gruber
Two Hall-of-Fame cards in the first bunch, though they're both Roberto Alomar.

1992 Donruss
#76 Pat Combs
#92 John Morris
#94 Tommy Greene
#98 John Olerud
#109 Tommy Greene
#141 Tom Henke
This bunch has a duplicate player again, Tommy Greene's base card, and one commemorating his No-Hitter. There are also the first two former cardinals, in John Morris and Tom Henke.

1992 Donruss
#146 Dale Murphy
#179 Randy Ready
#180 Devon White
#187 Ed Sprague
#198 Darren Daulton
#219 Jimmy Key
I only recently learned that Dale Murphy played anywhere but Atlanta. I think of him as a player from the 70s and 80s, but apparently he even played a year for the Rockies in 1993. Speaking of learning, thanks to Donruss's policy of putting full names on the back, I learned that Randy Ready, whose name already makes him sound like a superhero, has an action-hero middle name too: Max. Randy Max Ready. Tell me that's not the hero in a cheap SyFy movie.

1992 Donruss
#230 John Kruk
#263 Todd Stottlemyre
#268 Terry Mulholland
#274 Rene Gonzales
#300 Jose DeJesus
#301 Mike Timlin
I think John Kruk was one of my favorite players when I started watching baseball in 1992. He seemed to have a big personality. It probably didn't hurt that as a kid I was carrying a few extra pounds and could identify with him a bit more. Next to him is one of my current favorite players, Todd Stottlemyre. Mike Timlin, on the bottom right, was also a former Cardinal.

1992 Donruss
#308 Duane Ward
#319 Darrin Fletcher
#342 Greg Myers
#353 Mitch Williams
#379 Pat Borders
#384 Wes Chamberlain
The last group features 3 catchers, showing a nice juxtaposition of different ways their cards can be executed. I think Darrin Fletcher is the best of the 3, having an action shot in full gear. I don't know much about Pat Borders, except that he served as Tom Pagnozzi's backup for about half of 1996 on the Cardinals, but unless he was known as a big power hitter (or even a high-average hitter), the batting pose seems like a wasted opportunity. Finally there's Greg Myers, who was just walking around and a lazy photographer asked him to squat. He's got a forward cap, no gear, and is in grass. That's no way to do a catcher card, Donruss.

Despite that Greg Myers pose, this seemed like pretty good purchase. After all, Toronto won the World Series in 1992 and 1993, and most of these Phillies helped them to win the NL in 1993.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought2064
Total Spent$39.13
Per Card1.896 cents

2012-12-26

I Guess I Know My Stuff

30-Year Old Cardboard held a contest to pick who would win the Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, and MVP awards, with a prize of 4 packs of 2012 Update. To make it more interesting, we had to pick the 2nd place finisher for the MVPs as well. Even with that wrinkle thrown in, there was still a tie for the win. Since I'm writing this post, you can guess that I was one of the two winners, picking each position correctly except for NL runner-up, which I listed as Andrew McCutchen instead of Ryan Braun. Luckily the other winner had the AL MVP vote finishing Cabrera-Hamilton. So, we split the prize. Let's see if I got the better of the two packs. I mixed up the two packs when pulling out my favorite to scan, so here they are together.

2012 Topps Update #US227 Mark DeRosa
I don't care if we only had him for part of 2009, Mark DeRosa was a Cardinal, so he's a player I collect.

2012 Topps Update - Blue Border Parallel #US21 Buster Posey
Appropriately for this contest, the NL MVP. The Blue Border looks pretty good with the All Star Jerseys this year.

2012 Topps Update - Golden Moments #GM-U13 Matt Cain
2012 Topps Update - Golden Moments #GM-U26 Robin Yount
Despite being horizontal, I like these Golden Moments cards. The Yount card commemorates the final game of the season 30 years ago, with an era-appropriate powder blue jersey to boot.

2012 Topps Update - Golden Giveaway #GGC-28
I've got a few of these, but I haven't redeemed any yet. I've got until February 1 to decide if I want to do that or try to trade them away.

2012 Topps Update - Gold Parallel #36 Michael Taylor #1481/2012

2012 Topps Update - Gold Parallel #331 Albert Pujols #0698/2012
This year, as in 2011, Update has a parallel with all 990 cards of Series I, II, and Update. At first I thought I hit a Short-Print jackpot, because I remembered Pujols being a late add as #331 in Series I. Then I realized it was numbered to 2012, just like the others, so it couldn't really be short printed. Then I thought, was there  even a #331 in Series II, or did it start later? So I looked it up, and I don't have a parallel of the SP, which shows Albert in a fielding position, but instead the regular #331 from Series II. I really wish Topps would skip the SP duplicate numbering scheme, it's terribly confusing. Or just be straightforward with it, and number the SP variation #331a right on the card, for example. When I'm in charge, that's what we'll do.

All told, I'd call these a pretty good 2 packs of cards. No Cardinals, but 2 former Cardinals, and you can't beat the price I paid. Thanks to Brian at 30-Year Old Cardboard for the cards!

2012-12-24

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 16, Final

Seattle over Denver

Most of the playoff picture settled after Sunday's games. A side effect of my system using points scored and points allowed is that Seattle has become the strongest team in the league. Houston's loss also dropped them out of the AFC lead, and Denver's big offense and what projects to be an easy game against KC next week has put them in the lead.

Unfortunately both Minnesota and Chicago won on Sunday, eliminating the Rams. With Washington winning and Dallas losing, we would have needed Chicago, Minnesota, and New York to lose, and Dallas to lose or tie Washington next week.

Dallas's odds of winning the division or making the playoffs are exactly the same, meaning they're not getting a wildcard slot, and they'll have to win to make it. Everyone else's situation is a little more fluid, needing a win and/or help.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SEA10-50.80711.224+78.55948.71930.64518.337
NE11-40.784++81.86746.45929.10116.097
DEN12-30.769++98.82356.70834.31018.288
ATL13-20.737+++52.80026.63513.366
SF10-4-10.72788.776+70.91637.07517.3518.484
CHI9-60.710-50.69223.64911.0125.0722.374
GB11-40.691++87.08038.00916.4257.333
HOU12-30.684++91.83951.26220.9258.954
CIN9-60.633-+43.14617.7086.6142.472
BAL10-50.618++59.98122.6177.9692.862
NYG8-70.596-6.2812.1720.7490.2590.091
WAS9-60.56859.41864.70716.5155.4831.8700.607
MIN9-60.560-37.73813.5934.2391.2360.393
DAL8-70.47340.58240.5827.5171.9140.5060.126
IND10-50.417-+24.3445.2461.0820.217

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch a playoff berth: New England, Houston, Denver, Atlanta (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Atlanta (Week 16, Saturday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Saturday]

2012-12-23

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 16, Saturday

San Francisco over Houston

Atlanta clinched homefield advantage, as evidenced by the plus sign in the Wildcard column. That means that they make it to the second round in every simulation, which is true because they've got the bye. I've removed the eliminated teams from the chart for readability.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF10-3-10.77595.130+90.43758.97633.36419.181
NE10-40.767++79.61145.09727.99615.066
SEA9-50.7654.87095.36768.72137.05620.68811.614
ATL13-20.737+++56.25928.32314.879
DEN11-30.735++93.56849.39228.37914.072
HOU12-20.706++98.61363.45429.43213.563
CHI8-60.679-44.46023.44210.0404.2881.958
NYG8-60.63016.27052.67225.0189.1843.5111.420
CIN8-60.62217.92869.00832.52412.9635.1211.901
GB10-40.605++58.17018.7926.9122.624
BAL9-50.58175.003+55.34119.5026.7262.238
WAS8-60.55551.72560.64320.2226.0901.9560.653
PIT7-70.5247.06830.35311.0483.3951.0490.299
MIN8-60.523-14.0865.8181.6260.4340.132
NO6-80.517-0.0220.0070.0020.0010.000
DAL8-60.47832.00532.7478.1641.9750.5240.142
MIA6-80.464-0.7940.2330.0610.0160.004
IND9-50.405-99.84529.0626.1341.2810.255
STL6-7-10.373-0.0030.0010.0000.0000.000

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch a playoff berth: New England, Houston, Denver, Atlanta (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Atlanta (Week 16, Saturday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 17

There were 4 bowls this week. Boise State went from #22 up to #18, and a bunch of teams shuffled around between there and #61, which BYU escaped to rise to #45. Also, without either team playing a game, Iowa leapfrogged Troy to steal the #83 slot.

1Notre Dame12-0
2Ohio State12-0
3Alabama12-1
4Florida11-1
5Stanford11-2
6Kansas State11-1
7Oregon11-1
8Georgia11-2
9Northern Illinois12-1
10Texas A&M10-2
11South Carolina10-2
12Florida State11-2
13LSU10-2
14Oklahoma10-2
15Utah State11-2
16Kent State11-2
17Nebraska10-3
18Boise State11-2
19San Jose State10-2
20Clemson10-2
21Louisville10-2
22Oregon State9-3
23Tulsa10-3
24Cincinnati9-3
25UCLA9-4
26UCF10-4
27Toledo9-4
28Rutgers9-3
29Northwestern9-3
30Arkansas State9-3
31Ball State9-4
32Arizona8-5
33Fresno State9-3
34San Diego State9-4
35Texas8-4
36Michigan8-4
37Louisiana-Lafayette9-4
38Wisconsin8-5
39Louisiana Tech9-3
40Penn State8-4
41Mississippi State8-4
42Baylor7-5
43Vanderbilt8-4
44North Carolina8-4
45Brigham Young8-5
46Navy8-4
47Oklahoma State7-5
48Syracuse7-5
49Middle Tennessee8-4
50USC7-5
51West Virginia7-5
52Miami (FL)7-5
53Louisiana-Monroe8-4
54East Carolina8-5
55Washington7-6
56TCU7-5
57Texas Tech7-5
58Bowling Green8-4
59Arizona State7-5
60Ohio8-4
61North Carolina State7-5
62Michigan State6-6
63Iowa State6-6
64Ole Miss6-6
65Western Kentucky7-5
66Pittsburgh6-6
67Virginia Tech6-6
68Duke6-6
69Purdue6-6
70Nevada7-6
71Minnesota6-6
72Georgia Tech6-7
73Missouri5-7
74Southern Methodist6-6
75Central Michigan6-6
76Utah5-7
77Rice6-6
78Air Force6-6
79Tennessee5-7
80Wake Forest5-7
81Arkansas4-8
82Connecticut5-7
83Troy5-7
84Iowa4-8
85Houston5-7
86Marshall5-7
87Virginia4-8
88Temple4-7
89Indiana4-8
90Miami (OH)4-8
91Wyoming4-8
92Buffalo4-8
93North Texas4-8
94Colorado State4-8
95California3-9
96Auburn3-9
97Maryland4-8
98Western Michigan4-8
99South Florida3-9
100Memphis4-8
101Washington State3-9
102Florida Atlantic3-9
103New Mexico4-9
104Kentucky2-10
105Florida International3-9
106UAB3-9
107UTEP3-9
108Hawaii3-9
109Eastern Michigan2-10
110Illinois2-10
111Army2-10
112Boston College2-10
113Kansas1-11
114Tulane2-10
115UNLV2-11
116Colorado1-11
117Idaho1-11
118Akron1-11
119New Mexico State1-11
120Southern Miss0-12

2012-12-21

eBay Wins #49

It may be junk wax, but it's a rookie card of a future Hall-of-Famer, and a defunct team pictured.

1989 Topps #647 Randy Johnson
It's also the beginning of a great career and an equally great mullet.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought2034
Total Spent$38.75
Per Card1.905 cents

2012-12-18

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 15, Final

San Francisco over Houston

Surprisingly enough, the Titans played to win last night, and took the Jets down with them. The Jets had a 6% chance of an AFC wildcard, which has now been distributed among Indianapolis, Miami, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati, the remaining wildcard contenders.

As for the Rams, there's a fairly straightforward way for them to get a wildcard spot, and it only takes 10 games going the right way!

Week 16:
St. Louis d. Tampa Bay
New Orleans d. Dallas
Baltimore d. New York Giants
Houston d. Minnesota
Arizona d. Chicago

Week 17:
St. Louis d. Seattle
Washington d. Dallas
Detroit d. Chicago
Green Bay d. Minnesota
Philadelphia d. New York Giants

There might be other ways involving Washington losses too, but they appear to hold the tiebreaker in the NFC East, so the most straightforward way is to let them win (or lose, doesn't matter), and have Dallas and New York go 8-8, just worse than the 8-7-1 Rams.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF10-3-10.77595.131+90.46158.82434.28019.708
NE10-40.767++79.57345.07827.98915.279
SEA9-50.7654.86995.42068.71038.16221.61212.133
DEN11-30.735++93.55749.40028.38314.294
ATL12-20.715++99.39253.31825.41412.656
HOU12-20.706++98.61363.45729.43113.792
CHI8-60.679-43.65022.93110.4234.4712.040
NYG8-60.63016.27252.91525.1209.6693.7431.515
CIN8-60.62217.92568.97532.43712.9305.1091.936
GB10-40.605++59.01319.3447.3462.789
BAL9-50.58175.004+55.41419.5306.7402.290
WAS8-60.55551.72660.92920.3026.4122.0970.699
PIT7-70.5247.07130.35711.0523.3961.0490.306
MIN8-60.523-14.3435.9041.7740.4750.145
NO6-80.517-0.0230.0080.0020.0010.000
TB6-80.509------
DAL8-60.47832.00332.7178.1592.0710.5610.152
SD5-90.472------
MIA6-80.464-0.7930.2330.0610.0160.004
CAR5-90.451------
CLE5-90.434------
DET4-100.409------
IND9-50.405-99.87529.1216.1471.2830.262
STL6-7-10.373-0.0030.0010.0000.0000.000
NYJ6-80.357------
BUF5-90.331------
ARI5-90.316------
TEN5-90.300------
PHI4-100.268------
OAK4-100.254------
JAC2-120.201------
KC2-120.177------

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch a playoff berth: New England, Houston, Denver, Atlanta (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]

2012-12-17

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 15, Sunday

San Francisco over Houston

The NFL knew what they were doing when they put San Francisco at New England in the Sunday night slot all the way back when the schedule was released. I had this picked as the Superbowl matchup, but with the wrong winner. The fortunes have now flipped though, and while New England is the strongest AFC team, their seeding puts them behind Houston and Denver in terms of likelihood to win the conference.

All of this week's teams who clinched did so with a win, and all those eliminated lost. That feels a little "cleaner" to me, as no teams had things happen to them.

Division Clinchers:
AFC South - Houston
NFC North - Green Bay

Division Eliminations:
AFC South - Indianapolis
NFC North - Chicago
NFC West - St. Louis

Playoff Clinchers:
San Francisco
Baltimore

Playoff Eliminations:
Tampa Bay
San Diego
Cleveland
Buffalo


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF10-3-10.77595.134+90.48058.84434.29619.709
NE10-40.767++80.27445.41928.19815.388
SEA9-50.7654.86695.42568.73838.17221.61612.129
DEN11-30.735++93.78949.34728.35514.280
ATL12-20.715++99.39453.31925.41112.646
HOU12-20.706++98.65363.67029.50213.822
CHI8-60.679-43.66122.94410.4254.4702.039
NYG8-60.63016.27552.91925.1229.6693.7411.512
CIN8-60.62217.92764.88631.16412.4114.8851.849
GB10-40.605++58.97119.3257.3392.784
BAL9-50.58175.002+55.32219.5106.7142.282
WAS8-60.55551.72860.92720.2936.4032.0930.697
PIT7-70.5247.07129.62710.8553.3351.0290.300
MIN8-60.523-14.1995.8581.7610.4710.143
NO6-80.517-0.0230.0080.0020.0010.000
TB6-80.509------
DAL8-60.47831.99732.8438.1922.0800.5630.152
SD5-90.472------
MIA6-80.464-0.5940.1740.0460.0120.003
CAR5-90.451------
CLE5-90.434------
DET4-100.409------
IND9-50.405-98.19228.5186.0221.2580.256
STL6-7-10.373-0.0030.0010.0000.0000.000
NYJ6-70.369-6.7011.2500.2420.0490.009
BUF5-90.330------
ARI5-90.316------
TEN4-90.303------
PHI4-100.268------
OAK4-100.254------
JAC2-120.201------
KC2-120.177------

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch a playoff berth: New England, Houston, Denver, Atlanta (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]

2012-12-16

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 16

This week wasn't much more active than last week. There were 2 Bowls, 2 Division 1-A semifinals, and the final in both Division II and Division III. The highest-ranked mover was Utah State, jumping from #20 to #15. Arizona also jumped from #42 to a tie for #31. In the end, 28 teams shifted around slightly, most swapping with the team just ahead or behind them.

1Notre Dame12-0
2Ohio State12-0
3Alabama12-1
4Florida11-1
5Stanford11-2
6Kansas State11-1
7Oregon11-1
8Georgia11-2
9Northern Illinois12-1
10Texas A&M10-2
11South Carolina10-2
12Florida State11-2
13LSU10-2
14Oklahoma10-2
15Utah State11-2
16Kent State11-2
17Nebraska10-3
18Clemson10-2
19San Jose State10-2
20Louisville10-2
21Oregon State9-3
22Boise State10-2
23Cincinnati9-3
24UCLA9-4
25Tulsa10-3
26Toledo9-4
27Ball State9-3
28Rutgers9-3
29Northwestern9-3
30Arkansas State9-3
31Arizona8-5
31San Diego State9-3
33Fresno State9-3
34Texas8-4
35Michigan8-4
36Wisconsin8-5
37Louisiana Tech9-3
38Penn State8-4
39UCF9-4
40Mississippi State8-4
41Baylor7-5
42Vanderbilt8-4
43North Carolina8-4
44Navy8-4
45Syracuse7-5
46Oklahoma State7-5
47Middle Tennessee8-4
48USC7-5
49West Virginia7-5
50Miami (FL)7-5
51East Carolina8-4
52Louisiana-Lafayette8-4
53Louisiana-Monroe8-4
54Washington7-5
55TCU7-5
56Texas Tech7-5
57Bowling Green8-4
58Arizona State7-5
59Ohio8-4
60North Carolina State7-5
61Brigham Young7-5
62Michigan State6-6
63Iowa State6-6
64Ole Miss6-6
65Western Kentucky7-5
66Pittsburgh6-6
67Virginia Tech6-6
68Duke6-6
69Purdue6-6
70Nevada7-6
71Minnesota6-6
72Georgia Tech6-7
73Missouri5-7
74Southern Methodist6-6
75Central Michigan6-6
76Utah5-7
77Rice6-6
78Air Force6-6
79Tennessee5-7
80Wake Forest5-7
81Arkansas4-8
82Connecticut5-7
83Iowa4-8
84Troy5-7
85Houston5-7
86Marshall5-7
87Virginia4-8
88Temple4-7
89Indiana4-8
90Miami (OH)4-8
91Wyoming4-8
92Buffalo4-8
93North Texas4-8
94Colorado State4-8
95California3-9
96Auburn3-9
97Maryland4-8
98Western Michigan4-8
99South Florida3-9
100Memphis4-8
101Washington State3-9
102Florida Atlantic3-9
103New Mexico4-9
104Kentucky2-10
105Florida International3-9
106UAB3-9
107UTEP3-9
108Hawaii3-9
109Eastern Michigan2-10
110Illinois2-10
111Army2-10
112Boston College2-10
113Kansas1-11
114Tulane2-10
115UNLV2-11
116Colorado1-11
117Idaho1-11
118Akron1-11
119New Mexico State1-11
120Southern Miss0-12

2012-12-14

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 15, Thursday

New England over San Francisco

Philadelphia had nothing to play for, and showed it last night against Cincinnati. The Bengals are now over 50% likely to make the playoffs. Also, they've kept alive the possibility of eliminating the Ravens altogether, by tying Pittsburgh next week.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE10-30.773++91.71359.61937.82622.021
SF9-3-10.77284.48399.51888.33356.70835.74220.636
SEA8-50.71615.50684.89854.37129.11715.0707.609
DEN10-30.708++78.47138.82720.51210.237
CHI8-50.69122.42476.92444.45021.83610.5405.023
HOU11-20.68594.630+95.88155.71824.96311.791
NYG8-50.68360.18380.43346.62422.29110.6944.987
ATL11-20.652++96.10645.75719.1998.329
CIN8-60.62210.46652.79925.0899.9424.0691.651
BAL9-40.61483.731+60.95823.4529.2413.677
GB9-40.58875.75390.37048.44517.4336.6742.463
TB6-70.584-0.5290.2170.0870.0320.012
PIT7-60.5315.80243.80015.7854.9361.6250.521
WAS7-60.52525.53339.65413.2514.3741.3910.437
SD5-80.523-1.0600.3360.1030.0340.011
MIN7-60.4941.8238.9593.0040.9350.2600.075
DAL7-60.47214.28416.9414.7281.3460.3740.102
CLE5-80.470-0.4030.1150.0300.0090.002
DET4-90.460------
NO5-80.448-0.0070.0020.0010.0000.000
IND9-40.4285.37098.24030.8957.2251.6890.405
MIA5-80.416-0.0930.0210.0050.0010.000
CAR4-90.403------
STL6-6-10.4000.0111.7680.4670.1140.0250.005
BUF5-80.383-0.1270.0270.0050.0010.000
NYJ6-70.369-3.4780.7090.1370.0280.006
TEN4-90.303------
PHI4-100.268------
ARI4-90.261------
OAK3-100.248------
JAC2-110.239------
KC2-110.212------

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch a playoff berth: New England, Houston, Denver, Atlanta (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]