Tenets of Wilson: 2023-11

2023-11-28

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 12, Final

Baltimore over San Francisco

Chicago beat Minnesota on Monday, which didn't do much except lift Detroit's divisional chances from 72.6% to 81.9%, and give Philadelphia five nines of certainty to make the playoffs.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	9-3	0.736	77.1	99.1	79.1	52.9	34.0	19.5
SF	8-3	0.729	98.6	99.8	78.6	50.8	30.8	18.0
DAL	8-3	0.736	16.6	99.6	75.7	48.0	29.6	17.6
KC	8-3	0.652	97.5	99.2	76.5	43.2	21.6	10.3
PHI	10-1	0.606	83.4	100.0	86.4	43.8	18.3	8.3
MIA	8-3	0.635	88.4	95.9	61.5	31.4	15.3	7.0
JAX	8-3	0.557	87.3	96.9	54.7	22.8	9.1	3.5
DET	8-3	0.562	81.9	96.3	51.0	19.2	7.7	3.1
CLE	7-4	0.563	14.8	82.2	39.0	16.3	6.8	2.7
BUF	6-6	0.675	11.5	23.6	13.6	7.2	3.9	2.0
MIN	6-6	0.543	14.2	65.6	28.6	10.9	4.2	1.6
HOU	6-5	0.552	7.4	54.8	23.8	9.5	3.9	1.5
GB	5-6	0.515	3.9	51.8	20.2	7.3	2.6	0.9
NO	5-6	0.515	38.9	48.4	16.7	6.1	2.3	0.8
IND	6-5	0.502	5.3	47.2	18.0	6.3	2.3	0.8
PIT	7-4	0.444	8.1	62.8	21.1	6.4	2.0	0.6
ATL	5-6	0.459	45.8	51.3	14.2	4.6	1.5	0.5
SEA	6-5	0.460	0.7	40.9	13.9	4.4	1.4	0.4
LAR	5-6	0.496	0.7	23.3	8.2	2.9	1.0	0.3
DEN	6-5	0.439	1.7	27.7	8.9	2.7	0.8	0.2
TB	4-7	0.468	15.2	21.3	6.2	2.0	0.7	0.2
LAC	4-7	0.520	0.6	5.2	2.1	0.7	0.3	0.1
CIN	5-6	0.438	0.0	3.0	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
CHI	4-8	0.398	0.0	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
LV	5-7	0.382	0.2	1.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
TEN	4-7	0.411	0.1	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYJ	4-7	0.336	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
WSH	4-8	0.332	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	4-8	0.248	-	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-10	0.290	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	2-9	0.292	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	2-10	0.297	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final)

First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Friday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco

2023-11-27

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 12, Sunday

Baltimore over San Francisco

We're being a little unfair to San Francisco simply because they've had their bye already and Baltimore hasn't, but the projection has flipped back again. Arizona has been eliminated from winning the NFC West by virtue of their 10th loss, but no one is mathematically out of the playoffs yet. Philadelphia won a close game in overtime, and is up to four nines in their playoff chances.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	9-3	0.736	77.1	99.1	79.1	52.9	34.0	19.6
SF	8-3	0.729	98.6	99.8	78.2	50.5	30.6	17.9
DAL	8-3	0.736	16.5	99.5	75.4	47.8	29.5	17.5
KC	8-3	0.652	97.5	99.2	76.6	43.2	21.6	10.3
PHI	10-1	0.606	83.5	100.0	86.3	43.6	18.3	8.2
MIA	8-3	0.635	88.4	95.9	61.5	31.5	15.3	7.0
JAX	8-3	0.557	87.3	96.9	54.8	22.8	9.1	3.5
DET	8-3	0.562	72.6	95.8	49.7	18.9	7.6	3.1
CLE	7-4	0.563	14.8	82.2	39.0	16.3	6.8	2.6
MIN	6-5	0.545	24.6	80.1	36.2	13.7	5.2	2.0
BUF	6-6	0.675	11.5	23.6	13.6	7.2	3.9	2.0
HOU	6-5	0.552	7.4	54.8	23.8	9.5	3.9	1.5
GB	5-6	0.515	2.8	48.8	18.6	6.7	2.4	0.9
NO	5-6	0.515	39.0	47.0	16.0	5.8	2.2	0.8
IND	6-5	0.502	5.3	47.2	18.0	6.3	2.3	0.8
PIT	7-4	0.444	8.1	62.8	21.1	6.4	2.0	0.6
ATL	5-6	0.459	45.8	50.5	14.0	4.5	1.5	0.5
SEA	6-5	0.460	0.7	37.3	12.6	4.0	1.2	0.4
LAR	5-6	0.496	0.7	20.4	7.1	2.5	0.9	0.3
DEN	6-5	0.439	1.7	27.7	8.9	2.7	0.8	0.2
TB	4-7	0.467	15.3	20.2	5.8	1.9	0.6	0.2
LAC	4-7	0.520	0.6	5.2	2.1	0.7	0.3	0.1
CIN	5-6	0.438	0.0	3.0	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
LV	5-7	0.381	0.2	1.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
TEN	4-7	0.411	0.1	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
CHI	3-8	0.399	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	4-7	0.336	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
WSH	4-8	0.331	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	4-8	0.248	-	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-10	0.290	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	2-9	0.292	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	2-10	0.297	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Friday] San Francisco over Baltimore

2023-11-26

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 13

The Errors:
None, now that we've got a lot fewer games per week, only 67 total in all divisions.

The Top:
Washington and Georgia swapped spots, and we have yet another new #1. Neither team beat a particularly tough opponent, but Washington's strength of schedule fell a little less than Georgia's. #5 Alabama plays #2 Georgia for the SEC, and #9 Oregon plays #1 Washington for the Pac-12, so the playoff picture has a change to get muddled, especially if #3 Michigan loses to #17 Iowa, #4 Florida State loses to #18 Louisville, and/or #6 Texas beats #22 Oklahoma State.

The Home Team:
Missouri won their regular season finale against Arkansas, and remains #12. A top 12 finish will be much more exciting next year when it means a chance at the championship.

The Bottom:
Kent State finished with another loss and remains #133. It's not impossible for that to change if their opponents or Akron's perform particularly well/badly in bowls, but I'd wager it won't change.

Winless and Lossless:
There were 6 undefeated teams, and one matchup between them. Michigan beat Ohio State, and all of the other unbeatens won, leaving us 5. There are no scheduled conference championship matchups between unbeatens, so we could go into the bowls and playoff with 5.

1	Washington	12-0
2	Georgia	12-0
3	Michigan	12-0
4	Florida State	12-0
5	Alabama	11-1
6	Texas	11-1
7	Ohio State	11-1
8	Liberty	12-0
9	Oregon	11-1
10	James Madison	11-1
11	Tulane	11-1
12	Missouri	10-2
13	Oklahoma	10-2
14	Penn State	10-2
15	Ole Miss	10-2
16	Toledo	11-1
17	Iowa	10-2
18	Louisville	10-2
19	Troy	10-2
20	LSU	9-3
21	NC State	9-3
22	Oklahoma State	9-3
23	Notre Dame	9-3
24	SMU	10-2
25	Arizona	9-3
26	Miami (OH)	10-2
27	UNLV	9-3
28	Memphis	9-3
29	New Mexico State	10-3
30	Kansas State	8-4
31	Clemson	8-4
32	Oregon State	8-4
33	Utah	8-4
34	Tennessee	8-4
35	North Carolina	8-4
36	Kansas	8-4
37	Wyoming	8-4
38	Appalachian State	8-4
39	West Virginia	8-4
40	Ohio	9-3
41	Air Force	8-4
42	Iowa State	7-5
43	Duke	7-5
44	Miami	7-5
45	Coastal Carolina	7-5
46	Boise State	7-5
47	USC	7-5
48	UT San Antonio	8-4
49	Fresno State	8-4
50	Jacksonville State	8-4
51	San José State	7-5
52	UCLA	7-5
53	Texas A&M	7-5
54	Northwestern	7-5
55	Kentucky	7-5
56	Bowling Green	7-5
57	Maryland	7-5
58	Wisconsin	7-5
59	Western Kentucky	7-5
60	Georgia Tech	6-6
61	Texas Tech	6-6
62	Texas State	7-5
63	California	6-6
64	Marshall	6-6
65	Auburn	6-6
66	Georgia State	6-6
67	Rutgers	6-6
68	UCF	6-6
69	Virginia Tech	6-6
70	Old Dominion	6-6
71	Boston College	6-6
72	Syracuse	6-6
73	South Alabama	6-6
74	Utah State	6-6
75	Arkansas State	6-6
76	South Carolina	5-7
77	Georgia Southern	6-6
78	South Florida	6-6
79	TCU	5-7
80	Minnesota	5-7
81	Rice	6-6
82	Illinois	5-7
83	BYU	5-7
84	Mississippi State	5-7
85	Louisiana	6-6
86	Northern Illinois	6-6
87	Florida	5-7
88	Army	5-6
89	Washington State	5-7
90	Nebraska	5-7
91	Eastern Michigan	6-6
92	Hawai'i	5-8
93	Navy	5-6
94	Michigan State	4-8
95	Central Michigan	5-7
96	North Texas	5-7
97	Colorado State	5-7
98	Purdue	4-8
99	Wake Forest	4-8
100	Colorado	4-8
101	Arkansas	4-8
102	Western Michigan	4-8
103	Houston	4-8
104	New Mexico	4-8
105	San Diego State	4-8
106	Virginia	3-9
107	Arizona State	3-9
108	Stanford	3-9
109	Ball State	4-8
110	UAB	4-8
111	Middle Tennessee	4-8
112	Florida Atlantic	4-8
113	Tulsa	4-8
114	Southern Mississippi	3-9
115	Pittsburgh	3-9
116	UMass	3-9
117	Cincinnati	3-9
118	Baylor	3-9
119	UTEP	3-9
120	Florida International	4-8
121	Indiana	3-9
122	Connecticut	3-9
123	Buffalo	3-9
124	Charlotte	3-9
125	Vanderbilt	2-10
126	Temple	3-9
127	Sam Houston State	3-9
128	Louisiana Tech	3-9
129	Nevada	2-10
130	Louisiana Monroe	2-10
131	East Carolina	2-10
132	Akron	2-10
133	Kent State	1-11

2023 History and #1s
Week 1 Jacksonville State and San Diego State
Week 2 Notre Dame
Week 3 Notre Dame
Week 4 Penn State
Week 5 Texas
Week 6 Oklahoma
Week 7 Michigan
Week 8 Michigan
Week 9 Ohio State
Week 10 Ohio State
Week 11 Ohio State
Week 12 Georgia

2023-11-25

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 12, Friday

San Francisco over Baltimore

After an all-NFC Thursday, why not have an all-AFC Friday? There was just one game, Miami over New York, which was a fairly unsurprising result. Miami is 8-3 just like Baltimore, but not quite favored yet.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	8-3	0.730	99.0	99.9	81.2	53.0	32.0	19.2
DAL	8-3	0.736	27.2	99.5	75.0	48.2	29.5	17.9
BAL	8-3	0.715	58.3	97.2	72.9	46.3	28.7	15.7
KC	7-3	0.628	92.9	96.2	66.1	34.6	16.9	7.6
PHI	9-1	0.605	72.8	100.0	79.6	39.4	16.5	7.6
MIA	8-3	0.635	79.5	95.7	60.7	31.7	15.9	7.3
CLE	7-3	0.597	37.3	93.8	55.4	26.3	12.0	5.1
BUF	6-5	0.684	20.5	44.1	25.8	14.5	8.1	4.2
DET	8-3	0.562	73.3	96.5	50.0	19.3	7.6	3.2
JAX	7-3	0.552	58.7	87.7	44.8	18.7	7.7	2.9
HOU	6-4	0.558	36.0	71.7	34.6	14.6	6.1	2.3
MIN	6-5	0.545	24.0	79.8	35.7	13.4	5.1	2.1
NO	5-5	0.534	59.3	67.6	25.8	9.6	3.7	1.4
GB	5-6	0.515	2.7	49.0	18.8	6.6	2.4	0.9
IND	5-5	0.489	5.2	32.3	12.2	4.3	1.6	0.5
SEA	6-5	0.460	0.7	40.9	13.8	4.2	1.3	0.4
TB	4-6	0.482	20.6	30.4	9.8	3.2	1.1	0.4
PIT	6-4	0.431	4.3	41.9	13.9	4.2	1.3	0.4
LAC	4-6	0.537	3.2	11.8	5.0	2.0	0.8	0.3
ATL	4-6	0.441	20.1	25.2	7.0	2.1	0.6	0.2
CIN	5-5	0.452	0.2	11.3	3.8	1.2	0.4	0.1
LAR	4-6	0.448	0.3	10.5	3.2	1.0	0.3	0.1
DEN	5-5	0.411	1.8	11.2	3.4	1.0	0.3	0.1
LV	5-6	0.409	2.0	4.5	1.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
TEN	3-7	0.399	0.1	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	3-8	0.399	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	4-7	0.336	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
WSH	4-8	0.331	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	3-8	0.260	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	2-9	0.331	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	2-8	0.309	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-9	0.309	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final)

First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore

2023-11-24

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 12, Thursday

San Francisco over Baltimore

This might be one of the best sets of games on Thanksgiving since they started having 3 games in 2006. San Francisco and Dallas, two teams that have both been projected to win the NFC this year, both won. Dallas won by a huge margin, 45-10, and while watching the game I kept thinking about how high that blowout would lift them. As it turns out, not quite past San Francisco, because they are still fighting for their lives to win the NFC East. Even though Dallas is the strongest team, they can't get the first round bye without winning the division, which is a huge boost to later-round playoff chances. Detroit came into the day in first place - sort of a rare occurrence - and lost, but remained in first place. I would flag the fact that Baltimore hasn't played this week as a caveat to San Francisco now being the favorite, but both teams are 8-3, so it's all fair.

Also, we have our first division eliminations, Washington and New York in the NFC East. New York could still sweep Philadelphia and tie them at 9-8, but that would require Dallas to beat Philadelphia and also be 9-8, dropping to the three team tiebreaker that would make them lose.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	8-3	0.730	99.0	99.9	81.1	53.0	31.9	19.3
DAL	8-3	0.736	27.7	99.5	75.2	48.3	29.5	18.1
BAL	8-3	0.715	59.3	97.3	73.9	47.5	29.8	16.3
KC	7-3	0.628	92.9	96.3	67.2	35.7	17.6	7.9
PHI	9-1	0.605	72.3	100.0	79.6	39.3	16.4	7.7
CLE	7-3	0.597	36.2	93.5	55.9	26.8	12.4	5.2
MIA	7-3	0.603	69.7	89.0	51.4	25.0	11.8	5.0
BUF	6-5	0.684	29.6	48.7	29.0	16.6	9.3	4.8
DET	8-3	0.562	73.3	96.6	50.0	19.3	7.6	3.2
JAX	7-3	0.552	59.2	87.9	46.0	19.5	8.0	3.0
HOU	6-4	0.558	35.4	70.8	34.9	14.9	6.3	2.4
MIN	6-5	0.545	24.0	79.9	35.7	13.4	5.1	2.1
NO	5-5	0.534	59.6	67.8	25.9	9.6	3.7	1.5
GB	5-6	0.515	2.7	49.1	18.8	6.6	2.4	0.9
IND	5-5	0.489	5.3	32.9	12.7	4.5	1.6	0.5
SEA	6-5	0.460	0.7	41.0	13.8	4.2	1.3	0.4
TB	4-6	0.482	20.8	30.6	9.8	3.2	1.1	0.4
PIT	6-4	0.431	4.3	42.4	14.4	4.4	1.4	0.4
LAC	4-6	0.537	3.2	11.9	5.1	2.1	0.9	0.3
ATL	4-6	0.441	19.6	24.6	6.8	2.0	0.6	0.2
CIN	5-5	0.452	0.2	11.2	3.9	1.2	0.4	0.1
LAR	4-6	0.448	0.3	10.5	3.2	1.0	0.3	0.1
DEN	5-5	0.411	1.8	11.1	3.5	1.0	0.3	0.1
LV	5-6	0.409	2.0	4.6	1.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
NYJ	4-6	0.375	0.7	1.8	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
TEN	3-7	0.399	0.1	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	3-8	0.399	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
WSH	4-8	0.331	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	3-8	0.260	-	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	2-9	0.331	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	2-8	0.309	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-9	0.309	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final)

First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco

2023-11-21

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 11, Final

Baltimore over San Francisco

We had another good single-game day, with two teams who have been conference favorites this year playing. Philadelphia beat Kansas City, and finally crosses that 99.9% threshold. Note that when I show 100.0, that's rounded. An actual clinch with display with a plus (+).

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	8-3	0.714	60.1	97.5	74.2	47.6	29.8	17.4
SF	7-3	0.703	91.9	99.1	74.3	46.6	28.1	16.1
DAL	7-3	0.696	18.9	98.0	68.3	41.1	24.2	13.7
PHI	9-1	0.605	81.1	100.0	82.1	42.2	19.3	9.0
KC	7-3	0.628	93.1	96.3	67.2	35.6	17.5	8.6
CLE	7-3	0.597	35.6	93.5	55.7	26.7	12.4	5.6
MIA	7-3	0.603	68.9	88.9	51.2	24.9	11.7	5.4
BUF	6-5	0.684	30.5	50.3	30.0	17.1	9.6	5.3
DET	8-2	0.573	83.5	98.4	56.2	24.5	10.7	4.7
JAX	7-3	0.552	59.2	87.9	45.8	19.4	8.0	3.3
HOU	6-4	0.558	35.4	70.8	34.8	14.9	6.3	2.6
MIN	6-5	0.545	15.5	80.0	35.8	14.6	6.0	2.5
NO	5-5	0.534	59.2	67.1	26.9	10.8	4.4	1.7
SEA	6-4	0.496	7.5	63.2	24.3	9.0	3.3	1.2
IND	5-5	0.489	5.3	32.8	12.6	4.5	1.6	0.6
GB	4-6	0.500	0.9	27.3	10.4	3.8	1.4	0.5
TB	4-6	0.482	21.1	30.7	10.6	3.8	1.4	0.5
PIT	6-4	0.431	4.1	41.3	14.0	4.3	1.3	0.4
LAC	4-6	0.536	3.2	11.9	5.1	2.1	0.9	0.3
ATL	4-6	0.441	19.6	24.1	7.3	2.3	0.8	0.2
CIN	5-5	0.452	0.2	11.1	3.8	1.2	0.4	0.1
LAR	4-6	0.448	0.6	10.8	3.5	1.2	0.4	0.1
DEN	5-5	0.411	1.7	11.0	3.4	1.0	0.3	0.1
LV	5-6	0.409	2.0	4.6	1.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
NYJ	4-6	0.375	0.6	1.7	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
TEN	3-7	0.399	0.1	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
WSH	4-7	0.383	0.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	3-8	0.399	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	3-8	0.260	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	2-9	0.332	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	2-8	0.309	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-9	0.309	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco

2023-11-20

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 11, Sunday

Baltimore over San Francisco

Baltimore was idle after their win Thursday, and San Francisco won again. Dallas, however, is stalking closely behind. We now have two NFC teams at 99% playoff chances, but none over 99.9% yet. And, while there have been no official eliminations, my simulation shows Washington and Chicago joining New York, Arizona, and Carolina as never winning the NFC #1 spot, with New England the only team eliminated from that in the AFC so far.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	8-3	0.714	60.1	97.4	72.6	46.5	28.9	16.9
SF	7-3	0.703	91.9	99.1	76.0	48.0	29.0	16.6
DAL	7-3	0.696	26.6	98.1	69.3	42.1	24.9	14.0
KC	7-2	0.633	95.7	97.9	73.5	39.7	19.7	9.7
PHI	8-1	0.596	73.4	99.9	76.0	37.9	17.0	7.8
CLE	7-3	0.597	35.6	93.5	54.6	26.1	12.0	5.5
MIA	7-3	0.603	68.8	88.9	50.1	24.2	11.4	5.3
BUF	6-5	0.684	30.5	50.4	29.8	16.9	9.5	5.2
DET	8-2	0.573	83.5	98.4	57.9	25.8	11.2	4.9
JAX	7-3	0.552	59.2	87.9	44.7	18.7	7.7	3.2
HOU	6-4	0.558	35.4	70.7	34.5	14.6	6.2	2.6
MIN	6-5	0.545	15.5	80.0	35.9	14.8	6.1	2.5
NO	5-5	0.534	59.2	67.1	27.4	11.0	4.5	1.8
SEA	6-4	0.496	7.5	63.4	24.8	9.1	3.4	1.2
IND	5-5	0.489	5.3	32.8	12.5	4.5	1.6	0.6
GB	4-6	0.500	0.9	27.2	10.4	3.8	1.4	0.5
TB	4-6	0.482	21.1	30.6	10.8	3.8	1.4	0.5
PIT	6-4	0.431	4.1	41.3	13.8	4.2	1.3	0.4
LAC	4-6	0.537	1.9	11.3	4.8	2.0	0.8	0.3
ATL	4-6	0.441	19.6	24.0	7.5	2.4	0.8	0.2
CIN	5-5	0.452	0.2	11.0	3.8	1.2	0.4	0.1
LAR	4-6	0.448	0.6	10.8	3.5	1.1	0.4	0.1
DEN	5-5	0.411	1.1	10.7	3.3	1.0	0.3	0.1
LV	5-6	0.409	1.2	4.0	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
NYJ	4-6	0.375	0.6	1.7	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
TEN	3-7	0.399	0.1	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
WSH	4-7	0.383	0.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	3-8	0.399	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	3-8	0.260	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	2-9	0.331	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-9	0.309	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	2-8	0.309	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco

2023-11-19

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 12

The Errors:
None, because I'm still catching up.

The Top:
Georgia is now #1, and former #1 Ohio State fell down to #3. James Madison finally lost too, eliminating the controversy of them not being allowed in the major bowls this year.

The Home Team:
Missouri won again and rose one spot up to #12. I don't think they'll have any shot at a top 4 finish, but eventually there will be 12 playoff spots.

The Bottom:
Just like last week, Kent State lost again to stay #133.

Winless and Lossless:
As I mentioned before, James Madison lost their first game, so now there are still 6 undefeated teams, all 11-0, and no winless teams.

1	Georgia	11-0
2	Washington	11-0
3	Ohio State	11-0
4	Florida State	11-0
5	Michigan	11-0
6	Alabama	10-1
7	Texas	10-1
8	Liberty	11-0
9	Oregon	10-1
10	Louisville	10-1
11	James Madison	10-1
12	Missouri	9-2
13	Penn State	9-2
14	Ole Miss	9-2
15	Tulane	10-1
16	Oklahoma	9-2
17	Toledo	10-1
18	Iowa	9-2
19	Troy	9-2
20	UNLV	9-2
21	LSU	8-3
22	Kansas State	8-3
23	Notre Dame	8-3
24	Oklahoma State	8-3
25	Oregon State	8-3
26	Arizona	8-3
27	SMU	9-2
28	NC State	8-3
29	North Carolina	8-3
30	Miami (OH)	9-2
31	Memphis	8-3
32	New Mexico State	9-3
33	Tennessee	7-4
34	Utah	7-4
35	Air Force	8-3
36	Clemson	7-4
37	Wyoming	7-4
38	Kansas	7-4
39	Fresno State	8-3
40	Coastal Carolina	7-4
41	Jacksonville State	8-3
42	UCLA	7-4
43	USC	7-5
44	UT San Antonio	8-3
45	West Virginia	7-4
46	Texas A&M	7-4
47	Ohio	8-3
48	Appalachian State	7-4
49	Duke	6-5
50	Iowa State	6-5
51	Miami	6-5
52	Texas Tech	6-5
53	Georgia Tech	6-5
54	Auburn	6-5
55	Boise State	6-5
56	Georgia State	6-5
57	Rutgers	6-5
58	Northwestern	6-5
59	Bowling Green	6-5
60	San José State	6-5
61	Kentucky	6-5
62	Western Kentucky	6-5
63	Maryland	6-5
64	South Alabama	6-5
65	Wisconsin	6-5
66	Boston College	6-5
67	Arkansas State	6-5
68	South Carolina	5-6
69	Texas State	6-5
70	Georgia Southern	6-5
71	California	5-6
72	Marshall	5-6
73	TCU	5-6
74	UCF	5-6
75	Minnesota	5-6
76	Illinois	5-6
77	Virginia Tech	5-6
78	BYU	5-6
79	Mississippi State	5-6
80	Syracuse	5-6
81	Army	5-6
82	Florida	5-6
83	Old Dominion	5-6
84	Washington State	5-6
85	South Florida	5-6
86	Utah State	5-6
87	Nebraska	5-6
88	Michigan State	4-7
89	Colorado State	5-6
90	Navy	5-5
91	Louisiana	5-6
92	Northern Illinois	5-6
93	Rice	5-6
94	Central Michigan	5-6
95	Wake Forest	4-7
96	Colorado	4-7
97	Eastern Michigan	5-6
98	Arkansas	4-7
99	Houston	4-7
100	New Mexico	4-7
101	Middle Tennessee	4-7
102	Western Michigan	4-7
103	Virginia	3-8
104	Hawai'i	4-8
105	UAB	4-7
106	Arizona State	3-8
107	Stanford	3-8
108	North Texas	4-7
109	Florida Atlantic	4-7
110	Purdue	3-8
111	Ball State	4-7
112	UMass	3-8
113	Pittsburgh	3-8
114	Indiana	3-8
115	Southern Mississippi	3-8
116	Baylor	3-8
117	Cincinnati	3-8
118	Florida International	4-7
119	UTEP	3-8
120	Buffalo	3-8
121	San Diego State	3-8
122	Tulsa	3-8
123	Charlotte	3-8
124	Vanderbilt	2-9
125	Louisiana Monroe	2-9
126	Temple	3-8
127	East Carolina	2-9
128	Louisiana Tech	3-9
129	Nevada	2-9
130	Connecticut	2-9
131	Sam Houston State	2-9
132	Akron	2-9
133	Kent State	1-10

2023-11-17

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Baltimore over San Francisco

We finally had an important game on a Thursday or Monday; it seems like those days almost never have any meaningful movement. Baltimore beat Cincinnati to start Week 11. While Cincinnati was only 5-4, a division win is always extra helpful for tiebreaker purposes.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	8-3	0.715	66.3	98.1	76.4	50.6	32.2	19.7
SF	6-3	0.681	81.9	97.0	69.3	42.8	25.6	14.2
KC	7-2	0.633	93.3	97.7	76.6	43.4	21.9	11.4
DAL	6-3	0.664	20.1	94.7	62.2	36.2	20.7	11.1
PHI	8-1	0.596	79.9	99.9	79.2	40.9	19.7	9.1
CLE	6-3	0.587	23.9	87.2	50.3	23.9	11.0	5.2
DET	7-2	0.566	70.4	96.2	54.3	25.0	11.3	4.9
MIA	6-3	0.589	66.4	81.1	45.6	21.7	10.1	4.8
BUF	5-5	0.641	28.2	41.6	23.5	12.4	6.5	3.4
MIN	6-4	0.547	28.9	87.4	42.4	18.5	8.0	3.3
HOU	5-4	0.547	38.2	63.2	31.6	13.3	5.6	2.4
JAX	6-3	0.512	49.6	73.5	34.6	13.5	5.2	2.1
NO	5-5	0.534	53.0	62.1	27.0	11.4	4.9	2.0
SEA	6-3	0.498	17.6	77.9	33.1	12.9	5.0	1.9
TB	4-5	0.511	30.7	41.7	17.2	6.9	2.8	1.1
PIT	6-3	0.441	9.6	58.5	22.4	7.2	2.3	0.8
LAC	4-5	0.541	4.0	22.2	10.1	4.2	1.8	0.8
IND	5-5	0.489	10.3	34.3	14.0	5.0	1.9	0.7
GB	3-6	0.494	0.6	13.4	5.3	2.0	0.8	0.3
ATL	4-6	0.441	16.2	19.3	6.5	2.2	0.7	0.2
CIN	5-5	0.452	0.2	12.6	4.5	1.5	0.5	0.2
NYJ	4-5	0.432	5.3	9.0	3.2	1.0	0.3	0.1
LV	5-5	0.425	2.1	10.0	3.4	1.1	0.3	0.1
LAR	3-6	0.447	0.5	5.9	2.1	0.7	0.2	0.1
DEN	4-5	0.412	0.5	6.9	2.2	0.7	0.2	0.1
TEN	3-6	0.440	1.9	4.0	1.4	0.5	0.1	0.0
WSH	4-6	0.402	0.0	2.9	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
CHI	3-7	0.406	0.1	1.6	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-8	0.344	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	2-8	0.343	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	2-8	0.309	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.255	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco

2023-11-14

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 10, Final

Baltimore over San Francisco

Buffalo keeps sliding, and lost at home to Denver on Monday. Overall, the projection stays the same. And, while no one is eliminated from the playoffs yet, I now show the 4 8-loss teams (Carolina, Arizona, New England, and the New York Giants) with no chance at their conference #1 seed.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	7-3	0.695	54.8	94.5	69.8	44.6	27.5	16.2
SF	6-3	0.681	82.1	97.1	69.5	42.9	25.7	14.6
KC	7-2	0.633	93.1	97.6	77.6	44.1	23.1	12.0
DAL	6-3	0.664	20.1	94.7	62.2	36.2	20.7	11.4
PHI	8-1	0.596	79.9	99.9	79.2	40.9	19.6	9.4
CLE	6-3	0.587	30.9	86.3	51.1	24.9	11.8	5.6
MIA	6-3	0.589	66.8	81.3	46.1	22.5	10.7	5.1
DET	7-2	0.566	70.7	96.1	54.2	24.9	11.3	5.1
BUF	5-5	0.641	28.0	41.0	23.4	12.6	6.7	3.6
MIN	6-4	0.547	28.6	87.0	42.1	18.4	8.0	3.4
HOU	5-4	0.547	38.4	62.9	31.9	13.9	6.0	2.6
JAX	6-3	0.512	49.5	72.8	34.7	13.9	5.5	2.2
NO	5-5	0.534	53.0	62.2	27.1	11.4	4.9	2.0
SEA	6-3	0.498	17.3	77.8	33.1	12.9	5.0	1.9
TB	4-5	0.511	30.7	41.7	17.2	6.9	2.8	1.1
LAC	4-5	0.541	4.2	22.5	10.4	4.5	2.0	0.8
PIT	6-3	0.441	12.1	56.5	22.1	7.4	2.5	0.8
IND	5-5	0.489	10.1	33.1	13.7	5.1	1.9	0.7
CIN	5-4	0.479	2.3	21.7	8.8	3.2	1.2	0.4
GB	3-6	0.494	0.6	13.4	5.3	2.0	0.8	0.3
ATL	4-6	0.441	16.2	19.3	6.5	2.2	0.8	0.2
LV	5-5	0.425	2.2	10.0	3.5	1.1	0.4	0.1
NYJ	4-5	0.432	5.3	8.9	3.2	1.1	0.4	0.1
LAR	3-6	0.447	0.5	6.0	2.1	0.7	0.3	0.1
DEN	4-5	0.412	0.5	6.8	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.1
TEN	3-6	0.440	2.0	4.0	1.4	0.5	0.2	0.1
WSH	4-6	0.403	0.0	3.0	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
CHI	3-7	0.406	0.1	1.6	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-8	0.344	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	2-8	0.343	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	2-8	0.309	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.255	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco

2023-11-13

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 10, Sunday

Baltimore over San Francisco

San Francisco had a big win over Jacksonville, 34-3, which raised their strength up quite a bit and put them back on top of the NFC.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	7-3	0.695	54.8	94.0	69.0	43.8	26.9	15.8
SF	6-3	0.681	82.1	97.1	69.5	42.9	25.7	14.6
KC	7-2	0.633	93.3	97.5	76.7	43.2	22.5	11.7
DAL	6-3	0.664	20.1	94.7	62.2	36.2	20.7	11.3
PHI	8-1	0.596	79.9	99.9	79.2	40.9	19.6	9.3
CLE	6-3	0.587	30.9	85.5	50.3	24.3	11.4	5.4
BUF	5-4	0.642	40.0	59.5	34.9	18.9	10.1	5.3
DET	7-2	0.566	70.7	96.2	54.2	24.9	11.3	5.0
MIA	6-3	0.589	55.9	79.0	44.1	21.4	10.1	4.8
MIN	6-4	0.547	28.6	87.0	42.1	18.4	8.0	3.4
HOU	5-4	0.547	38.4	61.6	30.9	13.4	5.7	2.5
JAX	6-3	0.512	49.5	71.6	33.7	13.4	5.3	2.1
NO	5-5	0.534	53.0	62.1	27.1	11.4	4.9	2.0
SEA	6-3	0.498	17.3	77.8	33.1	12.9	5.0	1.9
TB	4-5	0.511	30.8	41.7	17.2	6.9	2.8	1.1
PIT	6-3	0.441	12.1	54.7	21.2	7.0	2.3	0.8
LAC	4-5	0.541	4.3	21.1	9.7	4.2	1.8	0.8
IND	5-5	0.489	10.1	31.5	12.9	4.8	1.8	0.7
CIN	5-4	0.479	2.3	20.5	8.3	3.0	1.1	0.4
GB	3-6	0.494	0.6	13.4	5.3	2.0	0.8	0.3
ATL	4-6	0.441	16.2	19.3	6.5	2.2	0.8	0.2
LV	5-5	0.425	2.2	9.3	3.2	1.0	0.3	0.1
NYJ	4-5	0.432	4.0	7.8	2.8	0.9	0.3	0.1
LAR	3-6	0.447	0.5	6.0	2.1	0.7	0.3	0.1
TEN	3-6	0.440	2.0	3.7	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
WSH	4-6	0.403	0.0	2.9	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
DEN	3-5	0.410	0.2	2.7	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
CHI	3-7	0.406	0.1	1.6	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-8	0.344	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	2-8	0.343	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	2-8	0.309	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.255	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0