2014-12-31

Almost the Easiest Superbowl Contest on the Web V

As the proud winner of Almost the Easiest Superbowl Contest on the Web IV, let me just say there's no reason you should go enter this year's contest at Collector's Crack, the Big Old 5. Last year I picked the winner, the loser, got the points tiebreaker within 1, and the number of turnovers exactly correct. I've already put in my completely accurate prediction for this year. But, on the off chance my psychic skills don't prevail this time around, you could go enter, I guess. I don't think this year's prizes have been announced yet, so here's part of what I won last year, to give you a flavor for what's at stake.

1996 Laser View - Inscriptions #8 Jim Everett #0248/3100
2006 SP Authentic - Rookie Authentics Signature #255 Tarvaris Jackson
2013 Panini Limited - Monikers Silver #187 Nick Kasa #051/299
Get your entry in before the first game on Saturday, and write a semi-sarcastic promotion post such as this one on your blog to gain a bonus shot at the door prize.

2014-12-29

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 17, Final

Seattle over New England

Seattle locked in a first-round bye this week, making them nearly a 50% favorite to win the NFC. New England's fortunes fell a bit, because the strongest possible wildcard team - Baltimore - got the final spot. They're still the favorite, but only won the AFC in 35% of simulations, against 42% last week.

There are 36 possible Superbowl matchups. The odds of each one happening can be found by multiplying the two teams' chances of appearing in the game (the Semi column), assuming you pick teams from opposite conferences. The least likely Superbowl matchup would be Carolina vs Cincinnati, with about an 0.0064% chance of that happening. Even my most likely scenario is only about 16% likely to happen, though.

With only 11 games left, I like to pick who I'm rooting for in each game. Sometimes it's a team for whom I have a secondary rooting interest, and sometimes I'm just hoping for an interesting matchup, i.e., the Harbaugh bowl. I'll just go with the first day of games for now.

Arizona at Carolina - This is a tough one. It'd be cool to see a team actually host a Superbowl in which they are playing, but I'd also like to see what the NFL would do afte a 7-8-1 team wins the title. As a tiebreaker, a St. Louis native probably shouldn't root for a Bidwell-owned team, so I guess it's Carolina. And I think that's probably who will win, too, playing at home against a 3rd-string QB.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh - I'll be rooting for Pittsburgh, but I think Baltimore's going to win it. The teams split their 2 games this year, with the home team winning each time. Pittsburgh's other 4 losses were to pretty bad teams, though, destroying my confidence in them.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SEA12-40.788+++76.39546.50128.279
NE12-40.752+++59.16535.76218.467
GB12-40.730+++61.59829.95415.954
BAL10-60.712-+59.85226.91714.9616.995
DAL12-40.699++61.23528.28212.7466.306
DEN12-40.692+++58.02326.69511.850
KC9-70.664------
IND11-50.656++61.48126.44611.5934.701
BUF9-70.645------
HOU9-70.639------
PHI10-60.624------
PIT11-50.624++40.14817.0706.9212.587
DET11-50.595-+38.76511.0144.5901.766
CIN10-5-10.544-+38.51912.3794.0681.230
MIA8-80.529------
ARI11-50.527-+59.89315.2394.5461.462
SD9-70.500------
SF8-80.462------
NYG6-100.462------
MIN7-90.460------
NO7-90.458------
STL6-100.434------
ATL6-100.433------
CAR7-8-10.427++40.1077.4711.6640.402
CLE7-90.412------
CHI5-110.274------
NYJ4-120.261------
WAS4-120.246------
TB2-140.237------
JAC3-130.182------
TEN2-140.164------
OAK3-130.150------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 17, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New England (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: New England (Week 16, Final)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Thursday]
[Week 16, Saturday]
[Week 16, Sunday]
[Week 16, Final]

2014-12-28

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 18

The Division I-A (FCS) title game isn't until January 10, so the only games played this week were 13 bowl games involving 26 FBS teams. Marshall beat Northern Illinois to climb to #5 from #7, but my top 4 remained the same as they were at the close of the regular season. This is the second week I've mentioned Northern Illinois; last week I pointed out they were at the moment ahead of Ole Miss. Now they're behind them again, as Ole Miss and Arizona State are actually now tied at #15. Navy and Western Kentucky are also tied, up to #41 from #55-56 last week due to their bowl wins. There were many teams that moved at least a few spots due to strength of schedule changes, but the lowest team affected this week is new #120 UNLV, who swapped spots with now #119 Massachusetts.

1Florida State13-0
2Alabama12-1
3Ohio State12-1
4Oregon12-1
5Marshall13-1
6Boise State11-2
7TCU11-1
8Baylor11-1
9Georgia Tech10-3
10Missouri10-3
11Wisconsin10-3
12Michigan State10-2
13Mississippi State10-2
14Arizona10-3
15Arizona State10-3
15Ole Miss9-3
17Northern Illinois11-3
18UCLA9-3
19Georgia9-3
20Utah9-4
21Utah State10-4
22Clemson9-3
23Colorado State10-3
24USC9-4
25Kansas State9-3
26Air Force10-3
27Nebraska9-4
28Auburn8-4
29Memphis10-3
30Louisville9-3
31Louisiana Tech9-5
32LSU8-4
33Louisiana-Lafayette9-4
34Cincinnati9-4
35UCF9-4
36North Carolina State8-5
37Minnesota8-4
38Duke9-4
39Rutgers8-5
40Oklahoma8-4
41Navy8-5
41Western Kentucky8-5
43Washington8-5
44Georgia Southern9-3
45Toledo8-4
46Texas A&M7-5
47BYU8-5
48Notre Dame7-5
49Maryland7-5
50Virginia Tech7-6
51Rice8-5
52East Carolina8-4
53Stanford7-5
54South Carolina7-6
55West Virginia7-5
56Boston College7-6
57Iowa7-5
58Western Michigan8-5
59Penn State7-6
60Bowling Green8-6
61Tennessee6-6
62North Carolina6-7
63Arkansas6-6
64Nevada7-6
65Florida6-5
66Illinois6-7
67Miami (FL)6-7
68UTEP7-6
69Arkansas State7-5
70Houston7-5
71Central Michigan7-6
72Texas6-6
73Pittsburgh6-6
74Oklahoma State6-6
75Appalachian State7-5
76Texas State7-5
77Middle Tennessee6-6
78Virginia5-7
79Old Dominion6-6
80UAB6-6
81San Diego State6-6
82Fresno State6-8
83Northwestern5-7
84Michigan5-7
85Temple6-6
86Kentucky5-7
87California5-7
88South Alabama6-7
89Ohio6-6
90Oregon State5-7
91Ball State5-7
92Indiana4-8
93Wyoming4-8
94Texas Tech4-8
95Buffalo5-6
96South Florida4-8
97Akron5-7
98Florida International4-8
99New Mexico4-8
100Syracuse3-9
101Army4-8
102UTSA4-8
103Washington State3-9
104Purdue3-9
105Hawaii4-9
106Southern Miss3-9
107Vanderbilt3-9
108Louisiana-Monroe4-8
109Tulane3-9
110Wake Forest3-9
111Kansas3-9
112San Jose State3-7
113North Texas4-8
114Florida Atlantic3-9
115Iowa State2-10
116Colorado2-10
117Troy3-9
118Eastern Michigan2-10
119Massachusetts3-9
120UNLV2-11
121Connecticut2-10
122Kent State2-9
123Miami (OH)2-10
124Tulsa2-10
125New Mexico State2-10
126SMU1-11
127Georgia State1-11
128Idaho1-10


2014 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 LSU
Week 3 Oklahoma
Week 4 North Carolina State
Week 5 Nebraska
Week 6 Auburn
Week 7 Mississippi State
Week 8 Florida State
Week 9 Mississippi State
Week 10 Mississippi State
Week 11 Mississippi State
Week 12 Florida State
Week 13 Florida State
Week 14 Florida State
Week 15 Florida State
Week 16 Florida State
Week 17 Florida State

2014-12-23

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 16, Final

Seattle over New England

Denver's stumble against Cincinnati has clinched homefield advantage for New England, and a playoff spot for Cincinnati. Now the AFC North, NFC South, and NFC North will all decided a single game (each) to end the season. The other division in play, the NFC West, won't have the two contenders facing off, but will have the games at the same time to prevent either team from resting or having a meaningless game.

I'm a little surprised that the Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh game has been chosen as the Sunday Night game. It'll probably be a better game than Atlanta vs Carolina, but that one has the typical "Winner makes the playoffs, loser goes home" setup of past years. Still, it would be hard to justify putting two teams with losing records into prime time with the availability of flexible scheduling.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SEA11-40.75687.314+93.81463.39039.35823.122
NE12-30.754+++65.15542.47024.139
GB11-40.71460.288+82.30548.41226.09613.963
BAL9-60.689-45.35327.46611.5416.6133.245
DAL11-40.657++54.35625.72511.8675.586
DEN11-40.639++97.40252.95322.0899.624
KC8-70.635-2.0001.0920.3950.2030.087
HOU8-70.627-13.7667.3952.6181.3200.558
IND10-50.625++54.30323.05110.1824.293
BUF8-70.625------
DET11-40.62239.712+66.89831.53613.0435.659
PHI9-60.612------
PIT10-50.60554.151+48.30521.2278.5733.448
CIN10-4-10.56545.849+47.17518.5866.7562.458
MIA8-70.556------
ARI11-40.53412.686+64.09720.8456.8772.411
SD9-60.525-38.88116.8614.4731.7930.589
ATL6-90.49162.47962.47926.7957.7702.2900.716
NYG6-90.477------
STL6-90.466------
SF7-80.455------
NO6-90.454------
MIN6-90.452------
CLE7-80.436------
CAR6-8-10.36737.52137.52111.7352.3220.4680.101
CHI5-100.289------
WAS4-110.287------
TB2-130.244------
NYJ3-120.236------
JAC3-120.196------
TEN2-130.194------
OAK3-120.192------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New England (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: New England (Week 16, Final)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Thursday]
[Week 16, Saturday]
[Week 16, Sunday]

2014-12-22

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 16, Sunday

Seattle over New England

Seattle's thorough defeat of Arizona brought them up to be the top team in the league, and now I project them to be the first team to repeat since the 2004-2005 Patriots. But, they team they'd have to beat is the 2014 Patriots, assuming all goes as I project.

Everyone else says Green Bay is in now, due to their win and Dallas's win, so I may never know how they could have missed the playoffs.

The NFC spots are all accounted for with the exception of the NFC South champion, with some seeding yet to be determined. The AFC will have a more interesting final week, with a few teams vying for 1 or 2 final spots, depending on the Cincinnati result tonight.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SEA11-40.75687.312+93.81163.37839.35422.932
NE12-30.754+++65.61441.79523.759
GB11-40.71460.288+82.30448.39826.08513.826
BAL9-60.689-55.20632.53914.6547.9083.878
DAL11-40.657++54.36125.73311.8715.527
DEN11-30.656++99.12655.15824.06410.924
KC8-70.635-2.0041.0740.4120.1990.087
HOU8-70.626-13.7647.2562.7241.2960.548
IND10-50.625++52.95822.0759.6654.076
BUF8-70.625------
DET11-40.62239.712+66.89731.54313.0505.593
PHI9-60.612------
PIT10-50.60555.870+50.74820.8208.4513.397
MIA8-70.556------
CIN9-4-10.54844.13090.13740.07513.8214.9001.707
ARI11-40.53412.688+64.10620.8486.8782.375
SD9-60.525-38.88916.2244.7201.7210.566
ATL6-90.49162.47262.47226.7847.7752.2940.706
NYG6-90.477------
STL6-90.466------
SF7-80.455------
NO6-90.454------
MIN6-90.452------
CLE7-80.436------
CAR6-8-10.36737.52837.52811.7362.3250.4670.100
CHI5-100.289------
WAS4-110.287------
TB2-130.244------
NYJ3-120.236------
JAC3-120.196------
TEN2-130.194------
OAK3-120.192------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New England (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Thursday]
[Week 16, Saturday]

2014-12-21

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 16, Saturday

New England over Seattle

My simulations now show that Green Bay has clinched, though other sites do not. I can only assume this means I have a tiebreaker setup wrong. I tried to construct a scenario in which they would miss the playoffs, but I couldn't.

First, I had them lose their next 2 games, to finish 10-6. Philadelphia has to win next week to go 10-6 as well, otherwise Green Bay would definitely be in. Against Philadelphia directly, Green Bay would win on conference record, 7-5 to 6-6. Against Philadelphia and Seattle both at 10-6, Seattle would win to get the #5 seed, but then we're back to the Green Bay vs Philadelphia scenario for #6.

So, that must mean it requires Dallas to be 10-6 as well as Philadelphia, so that the Eagles win the division. Either Seattle will win a game to clinch #5 (or better), or will also be 10-6. Then, they'd clinch #6 based on conference record, and it would be down to Dallas vs Green Bay for #6. Here are the tiebreakers:

1. Head to Head (did not play)
2. Conference Winning Percentage (both 7-5)
3. Common Games Winning Percentage, minimum of 4 (both 3-1)
4. Strength of Victory

I'm pretty sure Green Bay's current .443 SOV can't be beat by Dallas, which is at .406. Maybe this is a case of making no assumptions of SOV by default until the last week, on the part of the other websites. Or, maybe I've got something wrong. If you've read this far, and can see how the Packers could miss the playoffs, I'd love to hear from you.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE11-30.744++98.93661.69437.36922.767
BAL9-50.70627.00070.50042.10020.76011.2056.312
SEA10-40.70449.64399.25783.25649.97129.29315.077
GB10-40.68151.045+79.98545.68425.08912.250
IND10-40.679++58.24828.92914.0977.508
DEN11-30.656++98.52750.69622.30511.316
KC8-60.649-35.60218.6408.0293.6811.838
BUF8-60.630-14.8477.0103.0571.3510.647
PHI9-60.6128.2378.2373.8811.7800.8290.343
DET10-40.60648.955+72.09334.80015.4776.337
ARI11-30.60450.357+82.17036.61616.5936.754
HOU7-70.601-2.9791.3400.4690.2140.096
DAL10-40.59691.76392.50646.98221.0159.4253.766
PIT9-50.58933.70970.89332.73612.2844.8412.114
MIA7-70.554------
CIN9-4-10.54839.29274.83030.64410.4363.6811.459
SD9-60.525-30.34911.8183.6481.2570.471
STL6-80.487------
NO6-80.48257.41157.41119.2416.4642.1800.648
ATL5-90.46228.82928.8299.1462.9050.9300.261
NYG5-90.456------
SF7-80.455------
MIN6-80.455------
CLE7-70.446------
CAR5-8-10.36213.76113.7613.2460.7660.1830.038
CHI5-90.304------
WAS4-110.287------
TB2-120.281------
NYJ3-110.244------
JAC3-120.196------
TEN2-130.194------
OAK2-120.193------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 17

With 5 bowl games, 2 FCS Semi-Finals, and the Divisions II and III championships...nothing changed in the top 14 teams. At #15, Northern Illinois can now say they rank above a team once thought to be headed to the playoff (Ole Miss) by at least one nut on the internet.

The Division II title was won by Colorado State-Pueblo over Minnesota State, who as we all know, was once coached by our favorite college coach of all time, Hayden Fox. Division III was won by University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, over Mount Union. When I rank all 720 teams, UW-Whitewater actually comes out on top now, with a 15-0 record.

1Florida State13-0
2Alabama12-1
3Ohio State12-1
4Oregon12-1
5Boise State11-2
6TCU11-1
7Marshall12-1
8Baylor11-1
9Georgia Tech10-3
10Missouri10-3
11Wisconsin10-3
12Mississippi State10-2
13Michigan State10-2
14Arizona10-3
15Northern Illinois11-2
16Ole Miss9-3
17UCLA9-3
18Georgia9-3
19Utah State10-4
20Utah9-4
21Colorado State10-3
22Clemson9-3
23Kansas State9-3
24Nebraska9-3
25Air Force10-3
26Arizona State9-3
27Auburn8-4
28Louisville9-3
29LSU8-4
30Louisiana-Lafayette9-4
31Cincinnati9-3
32UCF9-3
33USC8-4
34Minnesota8-4
35Duke9-3
36Memphis9-3
37Oklahoma8-4
38Louisiana Tech8-5
39Washington8-5
40Toledo8-4
41Georgia Southern9-3
42BYU8-4
43Texas A&M7-5
44Maryland7-5
45Notre Dame7-5
46North Carolina State7-5
47Stanford7-5
48East Carolina8-4
49West Virginia7-5
50Rutgers7-5
51Boston College7-5
52Iowa7-5
53Western Michigan8-5
54Bowling Green8-6
55Navy7-5
56Western Kentucky7-5
57Tennessee6-6
58North Carolina6-6
59Arkansas6-6
60Nevada7-6
61Miami (FL)6-6
62Florida6-5
63Illinois6-6
64Rice7-5
65Virginia Tech6-6
66South Carolina6-6
67Arkansas State7-5
68Central Michigan7-5
69UTEP7-6
70Houston7-5
71Texas6-6
72Oklahoma State6-6
73Pittsburgh6-6
74Penn State6-6
75Appalachian State7-5
76Texas State7-5
77Virginia5-7
78Middle Tennessee6-6
79San Diego State6-5
80Fresno State6-7
81Old Dominion6-6
82UAB6-6
83Northwestern5-7
84Michigan5-7
85Kentucky5-7
86California5-7
87Temple6-6
88Ohio6-6
89South Alabama6-7
90Oregon State5-7
91Ball State5-7
92Indiana4-8
93Wyoming4-8
94Texas Tech4-8
95Buffalo5-6
96New Mexico4-8
97South Florida4-8
98Akron5-7
99Florida International4-8
100Syracuse3-9
101Army4-8
102Purdue3-9
103Washington State3-9
104Hawaii4-9
105UTSA4-8
106Vanderbilt3-9
107Louisiana-Monroe4-8
108Southern Miss3-9
109Kansas3-9
110Tulane3-9
111Wake Forest3-9
112San Jose State3-7
113North Texas4-8
114Iowa State2-10
115Florida Atlantic3-9
116Colorado2-10
117Troy3-9
118Eastern Michigan2-10
119UNLV2-11
120Massachusetts3-9
121Connecticut2-10
122Kent State2-9
123Miami (OH)2-10
124Tulsa2-10
125New Mexico State2-10
126SMU1-11
127Georgia State1-11
128Idaho1-10


2014 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 LSU
Week 3 Oklahoma
Week 4 North Carolina State
Week 5 Nebraska
Week 6 Auburn
Week 7 Mississippi State
Week 8 Florida State
Week 9 Mississippi State
Week 10 Mississippi State
Week 11 Mississippi State
Week 12 Florida State
Week 13 Florida State
Week 14 Florida State
Week 15 Florida State
Week 16 Florida State

2014-12-19

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 16, Thursday

New England over Seattle

Go figure, a game between 2 teams that were both 2-12 had virtually no effect on the rankings. The Division and Playoff percentages changed by at most about 0.01% on the teams still in the playoffs. Maybe I'll track draft position next year, in which the Jaguars certainly lost ground last night.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE11-30.744++98.90961.41937.14222.653
BAL9-50.70626.98373.90444.15021.81311.7466.628
SEA10-40.70349.70194.79680.68548.57628.42814.616
GB10-40.68151.02696.99978.03244.57824.50811.954
IND10-40.679++57.84528.73913.9787.453
DEN11-30.656++98.49550.42722.16011.259
KC8-60.649-35.86118.7758.0943.7091.855
BUF8-60.630-17.4878.3463.6111.5890.764
PHI9-50.61640.59745.44121.70710.0984.7811.996
DET10-40.60648.97494.09369.00833.33414.8936.091
ARI11-30.60450.299+82.11236.82916.7076.799
HOU7-70.601-4.2781.9330.6820.3060.137
DAL10-40.59659.40368.67136.50016.3667.3552.937
PIT9-50.58933.71572.22432.96412.3624.8652.131
MIA7-70.554-0.0520.0210.0060.0030.001
CIN9-4-10.54839.30278.33431.72310.7753.7961.510
SD8-60.520-17.8616.8412.0720.7060.261
STL6-80.487------
NO6-80.48257.39457.39419.4326.5142.2040.653
ATL5-90.46228.83628.8369.2352.9280.9380.263
SF7-70.460------
NYG5-90.456------
MIN6-80.455------
CLE7-70.446------
CAR5-8-10.36313.77013.7703.2880.7760.1850.038
CHI5-90.304------
WAS3-110.283------
TB2-120.281------
NYJ3-110.244------
JAC3-120.196------
TEN2-130.194------
OAK2-120.193------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]

2014-12-18

Yet Another Sports Card Info Contest Win

I just won one of the weekly contests from Sports Card Info back in August, which was my first baseball card win among the many contests I've won there, and now I have my first football card win. And it's gloriously shiny.

2006 Bowman Chrome - Rookie Autographs #228 Jason Avant
My football card collection is rather minor compared to my baseball cards, so thanks to a few contest wins it's got a relatively large percentage of autographs in it. Jason now plays on my favorite AFC team, the Kansas City Chiefs, who are still considered the favorite AFC team in St. Louis by the TV broadcast schedulers, so I get to watch them almost as often as the Rams. He's only seen limited action so far this season for KC, but I say he catches a 60 yard TD against Pittsburgh this week.

Thanks once again to Sports Card Info for having contest after contest, especially this one.


2014-12-16

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 15, Final

New England over Seattle

Yesterday I got a comment asking about the ridiculous looking ranking of having Dallas below Houston, despite the 3-game difference in record, and Dallas having actually beaten Houston.

To address the second point first, Dallas won by 3 in overtime, so that's practically a tie in terms of using head-to-head to determine who is better.

As for the Strength column, that's determined purely by points scored and points allowed, which is basically Bill James' baseball formula for determined a team's Pythagorean Winning Percentage. The theory goes that a team that allows about as many points as it scores will be about .500 in its future games, regardless of if it managed to pull off a bunch of small wins and few huge losses, or vice versa. That's why 7-7 San Francisco is listed at .460, but 7-7 Miami is at .554, and 7-7 Houston is at .601. A team could even be 1-13 at this point, but if they won a game 62-0 and lost the rest 2-0, they'd be near the top. The actual formula I use is somewhat complex, involving exponents, league-wide points per game, and regressing to .500 based on how far into the season it is, but there is a simplification that can be made for purposes of comparing 2 teams: the higher a team's pf/pa ratio, the higher their strength will be, where pf = points for, and pa = points against.

Houston has scored 324 point against 277 allowed. Dallas has scored 381, but allowed 328. That gives Houston a slightly higher ratio of pf/pa, and the corollary to that is that their strength is at .601, where Dallas is at .596. Houston's points have not been distributed as favorably for them, though, so they've won 3 less games than Dallas. The meaning of those strengths in my projections is that Houston would win 50.52% of the simulations if they played again. That's just barely an advantage.

One caveat to mention is that this is supposed to represent an average of the teams over their last 14 games, so the average Houston lineup over the last 14 games would be slightly favored to win over the average Dallas lineup. This doesn't mean the Houston lineup with the 3rd string QB would be favored to win this week against the mostly-intact Dallas lineup. It does mean that Arizona, even at 11-3, is likely even worse than their 11th-best ranking, since they're now on QB number 3 as well.

Hopefully all that made some sense. I realize I did a little hand-waving to get from pf/pa to strength, but I didn't want to post a full screen worth of LaTeX equations to show my work.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE11-30.744++98.91761.42937.15022.659
BAL9-50.70626.98773.90944.15021.81111.7486.630
SEA10-40.70349.70194.79680.68548.57828.43414.621
GB10-40.68151.02996.99778.03644.58124.50911.958
IND10-40.679++57.80528.71413.9667.448
DEN11-30.656++98.50450.43222.15911.254
KC8-60.649-35.86118.7718.0913.7101.855
BUF8-60.630-17.4828.3503.6111.5880.763
PHI9-50.61640.60445.44721.70610.1034.7822.000
DET10-40.60648.97194.09469.01033.32914.8916.091
ARI11-30.60450.299+82.11636.82416.7056.794
HOU7-70.601-4.2831.9370.6840.3060.138
DAL10-40.59659.39668.66636.49716.3687.3542.936
PIT9-50.58933.70772.21232.96712.3654.8642.127
MIA7-70.554-0.0520.0200.0060.0030.001
CIN9-4-10.54839.30778.34131.73310.7843.8001.510
SD8-60.520-17.8596.8462.0730.7060.262
STL6-80.487------
NO6-80.48257.40357.40319.4306.5132.2030.653
ATL5-90.46228.83028.8309.2342.9290.9380.263
SF7-70.460------
NYG5-90.456------
MIN6-80.455------
CLE7-70.446------
CAR5-8-10.36313.76713.7673.2860.7740.1840.038
CHI5-90.304------
WAS3-110.283------
TB2-120.281------
NYJ3-110.244------
TEN2-120.214------
JAC2-120.195------
OAK2-120.193------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]

2014-12-15

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 15, Sunday

New England over Seattle

Seattle took over the NFC, despite currently being a game behind in their division. They're just about even-money to win the NFC West, and that's not accounting for Arizona being down to their third string QB. In the AFC, New England, Indianapolis, and Denver all clinched their divisions, and the AFC North will likely account for the other 3 playoff teams. The 6 AFC teams could actually be locked up by the end of week 16, though with seeding still at stake in the final week. I'm sort of rooting for that, just to see if the NFL would really put the Carolina-Atlanta game in the prime time slot if it is likely to be the only remaining game decide a playoff berth.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE11-30.744++98.91761.42937.14922.638
BAL9-50.70626.98773.90844.15021.81111.7446.621
SEA10-40.70349.70094.88081.43949.10728.73614.777
GB10-40.68151.23296.99978.22544.76824.58911.995
IND10-40.679++57.80528.71213.9657.439
DEN11-30.656++98.50450.43622.16511.245
KC8-60.649-35.86118.7708.0913.7101.853
BUF8-60.630-17.4838.3503.6101.5890.762
PHI9-50.61640.60645.64621.81310.1534.8002.007
DET10-40.60648.76893.49268.54933.15914.8056.055
ARI11-30.60450.300+83.15737.29516.9046.875
HOU7-70.601-4.2841.9370.6840.3060.137
DAL10-40.59659.39468.98436.91616.5637.4312.966
PIT9-50.58933.70772.21332.96812.3664.8652.125
MIA7-70.554-0.0520.0200.0060.0030.001
CIN9-4-10.54839.30678.34031.73210.7823.7991.507
SD8-60.520-17.8606.8462.0740.7060.262
STL6-80.487------
ATL5-90.46232.57032.57010.4283.3071.0590.296
SF7-70.460------
NYG5-90.456------
MIN6-80.455------
NO5-80.45544.77844.77814.0714.3741.3730.376
CLE7-70.446------
CAR5-8-10.36322.65122.6515.4031.2730.3030.062
CHI5-80.331------
WAS3-110.283------
TB2-120.281------
NYJ3-110.244------
TEN2-120.214------
JAC2-120.195------
OAK2-120.193------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]