Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 16, Final

Arizona over New England

Denver beat Cincinnati to clinch a playoff spot, but not the AFC West just yet. They'll need a win, a tie, or a Kansas City loss or tie to finish that off. As I said yesterday, Minnesota and Green Bay will play against each other for the NFC North. The last AFC wildcard spot will go to Pittsburgh or New York, with Pittsburgh holding the tiebreaker if they can win and New York loses. The other division up for grabs is the AFC South, which is almost in Houston's hands. I covered this loosely yesterday, but here are the specifics. Obviously first Indianapolis needs to win and have Houston lose to tie them at 8-8. That'll tie them in Head To Head, Division Record, Common Games Record, and Conference Record. The next tiebreaker is Strength of Victory, which Houston can't lose. Indianapolis can tie it with these results:

Buffalo d. New York
Miami d. New England
Atlanta d. New Orleans
Baltimore d. Cincinnati
Denver d. San Diego

That sends them to the Strength of Schedule tiebreaker. If both of these games go their way, Indianapolis wins it:

Kansas City d. Oakland
Cleveland d. Pittsburgh

If one of these games is reversed (KC and Pittsburgh both win or both lose), Strength of Schedule will also be a tie, and it'll fall to tiebreakers having to do with the teams' rankings among their conference or league peers. That's a tough one to predict at this point, since Houston has only 6 more points scored than Indianapolis, and 3 less than the next team in the AFC. Indianapolis is also only 3 ahead of the next team down. They are further apart in points allowed ranks, but those can all change based on the every AFC game this Sunday.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	13-2	0.820	+	+	+	74.48	45.97	28.86
CAR	14-1	0.770	+	+	+	63.97	31.18	17.32
NE	12-3	0.768	+	+	+	62.44	36.75	18.09
CIN	11-4	0.755	+	+	69.73	43.45	23.08	10.96
KC	10-5	0.724	19.65	+	66.39	33.08	16.83	7.34
SEA	9-6	0.715	-	+	62.75	25.89	11.21	5.43
PIT	9-6	0.669	-	31.83	13.10	5.18	2.51	0.94
NYJ	10-5	0.660	-	68.17	33.60	13.44	6.01	2.20
MIN	10-5	0.622	51.31	+	48.83	14.19	5.01	1.92
DEN	11-4	0.619	80.35	+	86.71	33.78	12.42	4.07
GB	10-5	0.609	48.69	+	51.91	14.20	4.87	1.81
BUF	7-8	0.530	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	8-7	0.505	99.98	99.98	30.47	8.63	2.41	0.57
WAS	8-7	0.496	+	+	36.51	7.27	1.76	0.48
ATL	8-7	0.493	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	6-9	0.470	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	7-8	0.434	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	5-10	0.415	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	6-9	0.411	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	6-9	0.408	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	6-9	0.392	-	-	-	-	-	-
BAL	5-10	0.388	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	7-8	0.387	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	6-9	0.384	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	6-9	0.384	-	-	-	-	-	-
SD	4-11	0.356	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	7-8	0.340	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MIA	5-10	0.322	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	4-11	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-12	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-12	0.240	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	4-11	0.191	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 16, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 9, Thursday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 11, Final)

First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Carolina (Week 14, Sunday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Miami (Week 11, Final)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Saturday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Thursday]
[Week 16, Saturday]
[Week 16, Sunday]