2016-01-13

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Final

Alabama finished off with a win after taking over my #1 spot last week, and thus kept it by defeating #2 Clemson. There was only one other game since my last rankings, and that was the FCS title game, North Dakota State over Jacksonville State. That FCS game had the effect of dropping California from a tie for #34 to #35 alone, and bringing Middle Tennessee up one spot from #72 to #71, passing Kansas State. The Alabama win didn't change the #1 spot, but it did bring North Carolina ahead of Navy, up to #11.

What if LSU had won their canceled week 1 game against McNeese State?
North Carolina would gain another spot to pass TCU at #10. LSU would jump from #26 to #14. Mississippi State would gain one place to #29, and Auburn would pass Arkansas State to reach #49.

Like I've pointed out in years past, the playoff system virtually guarantees I'll rank the title game winner #1, and usually the loser #2, because their strength of schedule goes through the roof adding 2 extra games against top-4 teams. Alabama's raw score was over 18,400, while Clemson was around 16,800, and Stanford, who didn't get a playoff game, was third best at about 14,700. The very lowest raw score for an FBS team is UCF at about -3000, so clearly every position doesn't lose 1000+ points through the middle.

Through the season, I think the top of my rankings were relatively in agreement with the real people this year, with a little bit of variation as I would expect. I consider that a success, because it means that my system is at least reasonable. I have a few tweaks in mind I may implement next year, if I remember it before August. One is to consider strength of schedule even before games are played, inputting the full schedule at the beginning of the season, and filling in scores as we go. The result at the end of the season would be the same, since there would be no more "future games" at that point. This could give drastically different rankings early in the season, especially when bad teams in tough conferences start off 3-0 against FCS teams, but perhaps offer a little bit of a predictor of who has potential to move up as the season goes on.

The 2016 kickoff is less than 8 months away.

1Alabama14-1
2Clemson14-1
3Stanford12-2
4Michigan State12-2
5Houston13-1
6Ohio State12-1
7Iowa12-2
8Oklahoma11-2
9Western Kentucky12-2
10TCU11-2
11North Carolina11-3
12Navy11-2
13Ole Miss10-3
14Northwestern10-3
15Utah10-3
16Michigan10-3
17San Diego State11-3
18Notre Dame10-3
19Oklahoma State10-3
20Florida State10-3
21Florida10-4
22Appalachian State11-2
23Georgia10-3
24Baylor10-3
25Toledo10-2
26LSU9-3
27Oregon9-4
28Wisconsin10-3
29Bowling Green10-4
30Mississippi State9-4
31Tennessee9-4
32Temple10-4
33Washington State9-4
34Arkansas8-5
35California8-5
36BYU9-4
37USC8-6
38Memphis9-4
39Marshall10-3
40Georgia Southern9-4
41Pittsburgh8-5
42Miami (FL)8-5
43Texas A&M8-5
44Louisiana Tech9-4
45UCLA8-5
46Boise State9-4
47West Virginia8-5
48Louisville8-5
49Arkansas State9-4
50Auburn7-6
51Western Michigan8-5
52Southern Mississippi9-5
53Ohio8-5
54South Florida8-5
55Washington7-6
56Duke8-5
57Texas Tech7-6
58Air Force8-6
59Penn State7-6
60Arizona7-6
61Northern Illinois8-6
62Cincinnati7-6
63Akron8-5
64NC State7-6
65Virginia Tech7-6
66Arizona State6-7
67Central Michigan7-6
68Nebraska6-7
69Minnesota6-7
70Utah State6-7
71Middle Tennessee7-6
72Kansas State6-7
73New Mexico7-6
74Nevada7-6
75Colorado State7-6
76Indiana6-7
77Connecticut6-7
78Illinois5-7
79San Jose State6-7
80Texas5-7
81Missouri5-7
82Tulsa6-7
83East Carolina5-7
84Georgia State6-7
85Kentucky5-7
86Virginia4-8
87South Alabama5-7
88Vanderbilt4-8
89Buffalo5-7
90Old Dominion5-7
91Florida Intl5-7
92Maryland3-9
93UTEP5-7
94Syracuse4-8
95Rutgers4-8
96Colorado4-9
97Georgia Tech3-9
98Iowa State3-9
99Rice5-7
100Troy4-8
101Idaho4-8
102South Carolina3-9
103Louisiana Lafayette4-8
104Wake Forest3-9
105Fresno State3-9
106Ball State3-9
107Boston College3-9
108Oregon State2-10
109Purdue2-10
110Texas State3-9
111Kent State3-9
112Florida Atlantic3-9
113UNLV3-9
114Miami (OH)3-9
115Texas San Antonio3-9
116New Mexico State3-9
117SMU2-10
118Tulane3-9
119Massachusetts3-9
120Hawaii3-10
121Wyoming2-10
122Army2-10
123Charlotte2-10
124North Texas1-11
125Louisiana Monroe2-11
126Kansas0-12
127Eastern Michigan1-11
128UCF0-12

2015 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 Texas A&M
Week 3 Ohio State
Week 4 Northwestern
Week 5 Northwestern
Week 6 Florida
Week 7 Iowa
Week 8 Michigan State
Week 9 Clemson
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson
Week 14 Clemson
Week 15 Clemson
Week 16 Clemson
Week 17 Clemson
Week 18 Alabama

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