What if LSU had won their canceled week 1 game against McNeese State?
North Carolina would gain another spot to pass TCU at #10. LSU would jump from #26 to #14. Mississippi State would gain one place to #29, and Auburn would pass Arkansas State to reach #49.
Like I've pointed out in years past, the playoff system virtually guarantees I'll rank the title game winner #1, and usually the loser #2, because their strength of schedule goes through the roof adding 2 extra games against top-4 teams. Alabama's raw score was over 18,400, while Clemson was around 16,800, and Stanford, who didn't get a playoff game, was third best at about 14,700. The very lowest raw score for an FBS team is UCF at about -3000, so clearly every position doesn't lose 1000+ points through the middle.
Through the season, I think the top of my rankings were relatively in agreement with the real people this year, with a little bit of variation as I would expect. I consider that a success, because it means that my system is at least reasonable. I have a few tweaks in mind I may implement next year, if I remember it before August. One is to consider strength of schedule even before games are played, inputting the full schedule at the beginning of the season, and filling in scores as we go. The result at the end of the season would be the same, since there would be no more "future games" at that point. This could give drastically different rankings early in the season, especially when bad teams in tough conferences start off 3-0 against FCS teams, but perhaps offer a little bit of a predictor of who has potential to move up as the season goes on.
The 2016 kickoff is less than 8 months away.
1 | Alabama | 14-1 |
2 | Clemson | 14-1 |
3 | Stanford | 12-2 |
4 | Michigan State | 12-2 |
5 | Houston | 13-1 |
6 | Ohio State | 12-1 |
7 | Iowa | 12-2 |
8 | Oklahoma | 11-2 |
9 | Western Kentucky | 12-2 |
10 | TCU | 11-2 |
11 | North Carolina | 11-3 |
12 | Navy | 11-2 |
13 | Ole Miss | 10-3 |
14 | Northwestern | 10-3 |
15 | Utah | 10-3 |
16 | Michigan | 10-3 |
17 | San Diego State | 11-3 |
18 | Notre Dame | 10-3 |
19 | Oklahoma State | 10-3 |
20 | Florida State | 10-3 |
21 | Florida | 10-4 |
22 | Appalachian State | 11-2 |
23 | Georgia | 10-3 |
24 | Baylor | 10-3 |
25 | Toledo | 10-2 |
26 | LSU | 9-3 |
27 | Oregon | 9-4 |
28 | Wisconsin | 10-3 |
29 | Bowling Green | 10-4 |
30 | Mississippi State | 9-4 |
31 | Tennessee | 9-4 |
32 | Temple | 10-4 |
33 | Washington State | 9-4 |
34 | Arkansas | 8-5 |
35 | California | 8-5 |
36 | BYU | 9-4 |
37 | USC | 8-6 |
38 | Memphis | 9-4 |
39 | Marshall | 10-3 |
40 | Georgia Southern | 9-4 |
41 | Pittsburgh | 8-5 |
42 | Miami (FL) | 8-5 |
43 | Texas A&M | 8-5 |
44 | Louisiana Tech | 9-4 |
45 | UCLA | 8-5 |
46 | Boise State | 9-4 |
47 | West Virginia | 8-5 |
48 | Louisville | 8-5 |
49 | Arkansas State | 9-4 |
50 | Auburn | 7-6 |
51 | Western Michigan | 8-5 |
52 | Southern Mississippi | 9-5 |
53 | Ohio | 8-5 |
54 | South Florida | 8-5 |
55 | Washington | 7-6 |
56 | Duke | 8-5 |
57 | Texas Tech | 7-6 |
58 | Air Force | 8-6 |
59 | Penn State | 7-6 |
60 | Arizona | 7-6 |
61 | Northern Illinois | 8-6 |
62 | Cincinnati | 7-6 |
63 | Akron | 8-5 |
64 | NC State | 7-6 |
65 | Virginia Tech | 7-6 |
66 | Arizona State | 6-7 |
67 | Central Michigan | 7-6 |
68 | Nebraska | 6-7 |
69 | Minnesota | 6-7 |
70 | Utah State | 6-7 |
71 | Middle Tennessee | 7-6 |
72 | Kansas State | 6-7 |
73 | New Mexico | 7-6 |
74 | Nevada | 7-6 |
75 | Colorado State | 7-6 |
76 | Indiana | 6-7 |
77 | Connecticut | 6-7 |
78 | Illinois | 5-7 |
79 | San Jose State | 6-7 |
80 | Texas | 5-7 |
81 | Missouri | 5-7 |
82 | Tulsa | 6-7 |
83 | East Carolina | 5-7 |
84 | Georgia State | 6-7 |
85 | Kentucky | 5-7 |
86 | Virginia | 4-8 |
87 | South Alabama | 5-7 |
88 | Vanderbilt | 4-8 |
89 | Buffalo | 5-7 |
90 | Old Dominion | 5-7 |
91 | Florida Intl | 5-7 |
92 | Maryland | 3-9 |
93 | UTEP | 5-7 |
94 | Syracuse | 4-8 |
95 | Rutgers | 4-8 |
96 | Colorado | 4-9 |
97 | Georgia Tech | 3-9 |
98 | Iowa State | 3-9 |
99 | Rice | 5-7 |
100 | Troy | 4-8 |
101 | Idaho | 4-8 |
102 | South Carolina | 3-9 |
103 | Louisiana Lafayette | 4-8 |
104 | Wake Forest | 3-9 |
105 | Fresno State | 3-9 |
106 | Ball State | 3-9 |
107 | Boston College | 3-9 |
108 | Oregon State | 2-10 |
109 | Purdue | 2-10 |
110 | Texas State | 3-9 |
111 | Kent State | 3-9 |
112 | Florida Atlantic | 3-9 |
113 | UNLV | 3-9 |
114 | Miami (OH) | 3-9 |
115 | Texas San Antonio | 3-9 |
116 | New Mexico State | 3-9 |
117 | SMU | 2-10 |
118 | Tulane | 3-9 |
119 | Massachusetts | 3-9 |
120 | Hawaii | 3-10 |
121 | Wyoming | 2-10 |
122 | Army | 2-10 |
123 | Charlotte | 2-10 |
124 | North Texas | 1-11 |
125 | Louisiana Monroe | 2-11 |
126 | Kansas | 0-12 |
127 | Eastern Michigan | 1-11 |
128 | UCF | 0-12 |
2015 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 Texas A&M
Week 3 Ohio State
Week 4 Northwestern
Week 5 Northwestern
Week 6 Florida
Week 7 Iowa
Week 8 Michigan State
Week 9 Clemson
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson
Week 14 Clemson
Week 15 Clemson
Week 16 Clemson
Week 17 Clemson
Week 18 Alabama
Week 2 Texas A&M
Week 3 Ohio State
Week 4 Northwestern
Week 5 Northwestern
Week 6 Florida
Week 7 Iowa
Week 8 Michigan State
Week 9 Clemson
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson
Week 14 Clemson
Week 15 Clemson
Week 16 Clemson
Week 17 Clemson
Week 18 Alabama
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