Superbowl 50 Projection, Wildcard Sunday

Arizona over New England

Carolina lost their top-of-the-NFC position to Arizona without either team even playing. That's because Carolina got the worst possible matchup of the 3 teams they could have faced, Seattle. Even though Seattle is the 6th seed, they are a stronger team by my metric than Washington and Green Bay (and also Minnesota, who would have faced Arizona if they won). That leaves us in a position where the #1 seed is facing a much stronger team than the #2 seed, all because Green Bay held the tiebreaker over Seattle. If both home teams win, the NFC favorite position will go back to Carolina.

Now let's see who I'm rooting for this Saturday.

Kansas City at New England:
In the Matt Cassel bowl, I'll take my home-state Kansas City. They're actually not in terrible position according to my numbers, at 46.6%. Also, I'm a sore loser and the Patriots defeated the Rams in Superbowl XXXVI, so I usually root against them by default.

Green Bay at Arizona:
I like some players on both of these teams. I'll root for Green Bay, again because I'm a sore loser, and while the Cardinals split with the Rams this year, they also abandoned St. Louis much like the Rams are about to do. Go Pack Go.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CAR	15-1	0.810	+	+	+	56.32	33.14	20.56
ARI	13-3	0.791	+	+	+	71.98	35.93	21.31
SEA	10-6	0.767	-	+	+	43.68	23.08	12.91
NE	12-4	0.762	+	+	+	53.37	32.54	15.43
KC	11-5	0.737	-	+	+	46.63	26.92	11.88
PIT	10-6	0.699	-	+	+	57.44	25.05	9.94
DEN	12-4	0.633	+	+	+	42.56	15.50	5.09
GB	10-6	0.596	-	+	+	28.02	7.85	2.86

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 16, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 9, Thursday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 11, Final)

First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Carolina (Week 14, Sunday)

First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: Carolina, Denver (Week 17, Final)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Miami (Week 11, Final)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Saturday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Thursday]
[Week 16, Saturday]
[Week 16, Sunday]
[Week 16, Final]
[Week 17, Final]
[Wildcard Saturday]