tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-70867690807997034442024-02-18T21:41:06.504-06:00Tenets of WilsonWilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.comBlogger2014125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7086769080799703444.post-20052013921623640542024-01-22T22:00:00.009-06:002024-01-28T09:30:08.304-06:00Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Divisional SundayBaltimore over San Francisco<br />
<br />Both teams I rooted for won on Sunday, and they'll both travel to play some juggernauts in the Conference championships.<br />
<br /><u>Kansas City at Baltimore (72%)</u><br />As usual, I'm rooting for Kansas City. By the numbers it's looking a little scary, though.<br />
<br /><u>Detroit at San Francisco (74%)</u><br />I feel like my rooting interest in this one will depend on the first game. If Kansas City wins, I'll root for Detroit, both because they are the underdog, and because they should be an easier opponent in the Super Bowl. If Baltimore wins, I think I'll root for San Francisco, so that my matchup projection since week 10 (And also briefly in week 3) will be proven accurate.
<br /><br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>TEAM</th><th>Record</th><th>Strength</th><th>Div</th><th>Plyff</th><th>WC</th><th>Qtr</th><th>Semi</th><th>Champ</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>BAL</td><td>13-4</td><td>0.834</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>71.6</td><td>42.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>SF</td><td>12-5</td><td>0.814</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>73.5</td><td>38.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>KC</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.666</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>28.4</td><td>10.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>DET</td><td>12-5</td><td>0.612</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>26.5</td><td>7.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>DAL</td><td>12-5</td><td>0.805</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>BUF</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.750</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIA</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.669</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NO</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.648</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>GB</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.566</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CLE</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.566</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAR</td><td>10-7</td><td>0.551</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>TB</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.550</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>HOU</td><td>10-7</td><td>0.548</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>JAX</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.512</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>PHI</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.509</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>LV</td><td>8-9</td><td>0.502</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>IND</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.465</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CIN</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.465</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIN</td><td>7-10</td><td>0.462</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CHI</td><td>7-10</td><td>0.462</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>PIT</td><td>10-7</td><td>0.453</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>SEA</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.427</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAC</td><td>5-12</td><td>0.398</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>DEN</td><td>8-9</td><td>0.394</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>ATL</td><td>7-10</td><td>0.391</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>TEN</td><td>6-11</td><td>0.366</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYJ</td><td>7-10</td><td>0.303</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>ARI</td><td>4-13</td><td>0.279</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYG</td><td>6-11</td><td>0.221</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NE</td><td>4-13</td><td>0.215</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>WSH</td><td>4-13</td><td>0.207</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CAR</td><td>2-15</td><td>0.158</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)<br />
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
First to 30% chance of Super Bowl win: Baltimore (Week 17, Final)<br />
<br />
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)<br />
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday) <br />
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final) <br />
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final) <br />
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday) <br />
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)<br />
First to clinch a division: San Francisco (Week 15, Sunday)<br />
First to clinch a first-round bye: Baltimore and San Francisco (Week 17, Final)<br />
<br />
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)<br />
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-1-final.html">Week 1, Final</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2.html">Week 2, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2_18.html">Week 2, Sunday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2-final.html">Week 2, Final</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3.html">Week 3, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3_25.html">Week 3, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3-final.html">Week 3, Final</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4-final.html">Week 4, Final</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5.html">Week 5, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5_9.html">Week 5, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5-final.html">Week 5, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6.html">Week 6, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6_16.html">Week 6, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6-final.html">Week 6, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7.html">Week 7, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7_23.html">Week 7, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7-final.html">Week 7, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8.html">Week 8, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8_30.html">Week 8, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8-final.html">Week 8, Final</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9.html">Week 9, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9_6.html">Week 9, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9-final.html">Week 9, Final</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10.html">Week 10, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_13.html">Week 10, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_14.html">Week 10, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11.html">Week 11, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_20.html">Week 11, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_21.html">Week 11, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12.html">Week 12, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_25.html">Week 12, Friday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_27.html">Week 12, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_28.html">Week 12, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13.html">Week 13, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_4.html">Week 13, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_5.html">Week 13, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14.html">Week 14, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_11.html">Week 14, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_01907897717.html">Week 14, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15.html">Week 15, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_17.html">Week 15, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01501030444.html">Week 15, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01094874355.html">Week 15, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16.html">Week 16, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_24.html">Week 16, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_25.html">Week 16, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_0655251710.html">Week 16, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-17.html">Week 17, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-17_31.html">Week 17, Saturday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-17.html">Week 17, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-18.html">Week 18, Saturday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-18_8.html">Week 18, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-wildcard.html">Wildcard Saturday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-wildcard_01569527083.html">Wildcard Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-wildcard_01569527083.html">Wildcard Monday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-wildcard_01569527083.html">Divisional Saturday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
<br />Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7086769080799703444.post-33612766225196203132024-01-21T10:00:00.021-06:002024-01-21T10:00:00.364-06:00Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Divisional SaturdayBaltimore over San Francisco<br />
<br />I was once again rooting for two upsets and got none. Houston kept it close for awhile but Baltimore pulled away with a 34-10 win, and Green Bay had the lead several times but lost it in the last 2 minutes for good, losing 24-21. With both #1 seeds winning, the projection remains for them to meet up.<br />
<br />
So who do I want to travel to face yesterday's winners today?<br />
<br /><u>Tampa Bay at Detroit (56%)</u><br />I'm not super invested in this one, so let's say Detroit, just for the history of it all.<br />
<br /><u>Kansas City at Buffalo (60%)</u><br />I'll always root for Kansas City as my adopted home-ish team.
<br /><br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>TEAM</th><th>Record</th><th>Strength</th><th>Div</th><th>Plyff</th><th>WC</th><th>Qtr</th><th>Semi</th><th>Champ</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>SF</td><td>12-5</td><td>0.814</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">75.5</span></b></td><td>39.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>BAL</td><td>13-4</td><td>0.834</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td><b><span style="color: red;">66.2</span></b></td><td>39.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>BUF</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.750</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>60.1</td><td>22.5</td><td>10.6</td></tr>
<tr><td>KC</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.665</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>39.9</td><td>11.3</td><td>4.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>DET</td><td>12-5</td><td>0.612</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>56.3</td><td>14.9</td><td>4.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>TB</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.550</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>43.7</td><td>9.6</td><td>2.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>DAL</td><td>12-5</td><td>0.805</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIA</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.669</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NO</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.648</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>GB</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.566</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CLE</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.566</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAR</td><td>10-7</td><td>0.551</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>HOU</td><td>10-7</td><td>0.548</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>JAX</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.512</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>PHI</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.509</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>LV</td><td>8-9</td><td>0.502</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>IND</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.465</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CIN</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.465</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIN</td><td>7-10</td><td>0.462</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CHI</td><td>7-10</td><td>0.462</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>PIT</td><td>10-7</td><td>0.453</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>SEA</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.427</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAC</td><td>5-12</td><td>0.398</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>DEN</td><td>8-9</td><td>0.394</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>ATL</td><td>7-10</td><td>0.391</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>TEN</td><td>6-11</td><td>0.367</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYJ</td><td>7-10</td><td>0.303</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>ARI</td><td>4-13</td><td>0.279</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYG</td><td>6-11</td><td>0.221</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NE</td><td>4-13</td><td>0.215</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>WSH</td><td>4-13</td><td>0.207</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CAR</td><td>2-15</td><td>0.158</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)<br />
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
First to 30% chance of Super Bowl win: Baltimore (Week 17, Final)<br />
<br />
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)<br />
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday) <br />
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final) <br />
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final) <br />
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday) <br />
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)<br />
First to clinch a division: San Francisco (Week 15, Sunday)<br />
First to clinch a first-round bye: Baltimore and San Francisco (Week 17, Final)<br />
<br />
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)<br />
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-1-final.html">Week 1, Final</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2.html">Week 2, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2_18.html">Week 2, Sunday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2-final.html">Week 2, Final</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3.html">Week 3, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3_25.html">Week 3, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3-final.html">Week 3, Final</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4-final.html">Week 4, Final</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5.html">Week 5, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5_9.html">Week 5, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5-final.html">Week 5, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6.html">Week 6, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6_16.html">Week 6, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6-final.html">Week 6, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7.html">Week 7, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7_23.html">Week 7, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7-final.html">Week 7, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8.html">Week 8, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8_30.html">Week 8, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8-final.html">Week 8, Final</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9.html">Week 9, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9_6.html">Week 9, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9-final.html">Week 9, Final</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10.html">Week 10, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_13.html">Week 10, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_14.html">Week 10, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11.html">Week 11, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_20.html">Week 11, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_21.html">Week 11, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12.html">Week 12, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_25.html">Week 12, Friday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_27.html">Week 12, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_28.html">Week 12, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13.html">Week 13, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_4.html">Week 13, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_5.html">Week 13, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14.html">Week 14, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_11.html">Week 14, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_01907897717.html">Week 14, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15.html">Week 15, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_17.html">Week 15, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01501030444.html">Week 15, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01094874355.html">Week 15, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16.html">Week 16, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_24.html">Week 16, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_25.html">Week 16, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_0655251710.html">Week 16, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-17.html">Week 17, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-17_31.html">Week 17, Saturday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-17.html">Week 17, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-18.html">Week 18, Saturday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-18_8.html">Week 18, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-wildcard.html">Wildcard Saturday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-wildcard_01569527083.html">Wildcard Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-wildcard_01569527083.html">Wildcard Monday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
<br />Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7086769080799703444.post-23886545593857047822024-01-16T22:00:00.025-06:002024-01-20T19:21:35.638-06:00Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Wildcard MondayBaltimore over San Francisco<br />
<br />I got 0 of the two upsets I wanted on Monday. I hope this doesn't shape up as a year where I don't really care who wins the Super Bowl. It makes the game a little less exciting. Let's look forward to Saturday, when both #1s will play.<br />
<br /><u>Houston at Baltimore (81%)</u><br />Baltimore is one of those teams I just don't care for. I don't have anything in particular against them, and my Steelers fandom is not nearly strong enough to care who their rivals are. But even though I rooted for Joe Flacco this year, I didn't care for him when he played for Baltimore. Maybe it stems back to them playing in the worst Super Bowl for me personally, XXXV, where they beat New York. The game wasn't great, and no big party came together. So anyway, go Houston, I guess.<br />
<br /><u>Green Bay at San Francisco (77%)</u><br />I think I'll root for Green Bay to continue to upset the apple cart. They already took down the #2 team despite a 9-8 record, so why not #1 and then next week #3 or #4.
<br /><br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>TEAM</th><th>Record</th><th>Strength</th><th>Div</th><th>Plyff</th><th>WC</th><th>Qtr</th><th>Semi</th><th>Champ</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>BAL</td><td>13-4</td><td>0.834</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>80.5</td><td><b><span style="color: red;">53.2</span></b></td><td>33.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>SF</td><td>12-5</td><td>0.814</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>77.0</td><td><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">58.2</span></b></td><td>32.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>BUF</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.750</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>60.1</td><td>26.5</td><td>13.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>KC</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.665</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>39.9</td><td>13.9</td><td>6.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>DET</td><td>12-5</td><td>0.612</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>56.3</td><td>18.6</td><td>5.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>TB</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.550</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>43.7</td><td>12.2</td><td>3.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>GB</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.566</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>23.0</td><td>11.0</td><td>3.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>HOU</td><td>10-7</td><td>0.548</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>19.5</td><td>6.3</td><td>2.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>DAL</td><td>12-5</td><td>0.805</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIA</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.669</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NO</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.648</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CLE</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.566</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAR</td><td>10-7</td><td>0.551</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>JAX</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.512</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>PHI</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.509</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>LV</td><td>8-9</td><td>0.502</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>IND</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.465</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CIN</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.465</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIN</td><td>7-10</td><td>0.462</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CHI</td><td>7-10</td><td>0.462</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>PIT</td><td>10-7</td><td>0.453</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>SEA</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.427</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAC</td><td>5-12</td><td>0.398</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>DEN</td><td>8-9</td><td>0.394</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>ATL</td><td>7-10</td><td>0.391</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>TEN</td><td>6-11</td><td>0.367</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYJ</td><td>7-10</td><td>0.303</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>ARI</td><td>4-13</td><td>0.279</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYG</td><td>6-11</td><td>0.221</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NE</td><td>4-13</td><td>0.215</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>WSH</td><td>4-13</td><td>0.207</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CAR</td><td>2-15</td><td>0.158</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)<br />
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
First to 30% chance of Super Bowl win: Baltimore (Week 17, Final)<br />
<br />
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)<br />
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday) <br />
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final) <br />
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final) <br />
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday) <br />
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)<br />
First to clinch a division: San Francisco (Week 15, Sunday)<br />
First to clinch a first-round bye: Baltimore and San Francisco (Week 17, Final)<br />
<br />
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)<br />
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-1-final.html">Week 1, Final</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2.html">Week 2, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2_18.html">Week 2, Sunday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2-final.html">Week 2, Final</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3.html">Week 3, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3_25.html">Week 3, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3-final.html">Week 3, Final</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4-final.html">Week 4, Final</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5.html">Week 5, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5_9.html">Week 5, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5-final.html">Week 5, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6.html">Week 6, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6_16.html">Week 6, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6-final.html">Week 6, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7.html">Week 7, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7_23.html">Week 7, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7-final.html">Week 7, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8.html">Week 8, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8_30.html">Week 8, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8-final.html">Week 8, Final</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9.html">Week 9, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9_6.html">Week 9, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9-final.html">Week 9, Final</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10.html">Week 10, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_13.html">Week 10, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_14.html">Week 10, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11.html">Week 11, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_20.html">Week 11, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_21.html">Week 11, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12.html">Week 12, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_25.html">Week 12, Friday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_27.html">Week 12, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_28.html">Week 12, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13.html">Week 13, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_4.html">Week 13, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_5.html">Week 13, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14.html">Week 14, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_11.html">Week 14, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_01907897717.html">Week 14, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15.html">Week 15, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_17.html">Week 15, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01501030444.html">Week 15, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01094874355.html">Week 15, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16.html">Week 16, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_24.html">Week 16, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_25.html">Week 16, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_0655251710.html">Week 16, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-17.html">Week 17, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-17_31.html">Week 17, Saturday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-17.html">Week 17, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-18.html">Week 18, Saturday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-18_8.html">Week 18, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-wildcard.html">Wildcard Saturday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-wildcard_01569527083.html">Wildcard Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
<br />Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7086769080799703444.post-60723037753238491222024-01-15T10:00:00.043-06:002024-01-15T10:00:00.133-06:00Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Wildcard SundayBaltimore over San Francisco<br />
<br />I'm a little worried that the rescheduled game in Buffalo is going to embolden the NFL to just do 2 games on Monday every year in wildcard weekend, much the way that 9/11 delayed the season and the Super Bowl by a week, planting it in February for the first time. Perhaps it should be the #5 at #4 so that at least one matchup can be determined by Sunday. I'd prefer a Sunday with 3 games though. I was pleased with both results yesterday, as Green Bay took down Dallas, and Detroit survived a comeback attempt by LA. Next week, Green Bay will travel to San Francisco, and Detroit will host the winner of tonight's Philadelphia vs Tampa Bay game. In the other game, Pittsburgh is playing for a chance to go to Baltimore (and send Houston to Kansas City), while Buffalo would get to host Kansas City (and send Houston to Baltimore).<br /><br />
So who am I rooting for Monday?<br />
<br /><u>Pittsburgh at Buffalo (78%)</u><br />I usually root for Pittsburgh as one of my buddies' favorite teams, but I'll also be rooting for them this time to boost Kansas City's overall chances.<br />
<br /><u>Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (54%)</u><br />I've never loved the Eagles, but I've always kind of liked them, dating back at least to when I had Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, and Terrell Owens all on my fantasy football team. That must have been 2003 or 2004. So let's root for two upsets today.
<br /><br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>TEAM</th><th>Record</th><th>Strength</th><th>Div</th><th>Plyff</th><th>WC</th><th>Qtr</th><th>Semi</th><th>Champ</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>BAL</td><td>13-4</td><td>0.834</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>81.6</td><td><b><span style="color: red;">55.6</span></b></td><td>35.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>SF</td><td>12-5</td><td>0.814</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>77.0</td><td><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">58.5</span></b></td><td>32.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>BUF</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.750</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>78.4</td><td>47.1</td><td>20.7</td><td>10.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>KC</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.665</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>44.7</td><td>15.5</td><td>6.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>DET</td><td>12-5</td><td>0.612</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>58.2</td><td>19.2</td><td>6.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>GB</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.566</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>23.0</td><td>11.2</td><td>3.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>HOU</td><td>10-7</td><td>0.548</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>23.5</td><td>7.0</td><td>2.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>TB</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.550</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>54.2</td><td>23.7</td><td>6.6</td><td>1.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>PHI</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.509</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>45.8</td><td>18.1</td><td>4.5</td><td>1.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>PIT</td><td>10-7</td><td>0.453</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>21.6</td><td>3.1</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>DAL</td><td>12-5</td><td>0.805</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIA</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.669</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NO</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.648</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CLE</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.566</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAR</td><td>10-7</td><td>0.551</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>JAX</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.512</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>LV</td><td>8-9</td><td>0.502</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>IND</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.465</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CIN</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.465</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIN</td><td>7-10</td><td>0.462</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CHI</td><td>7-10</td><td>0.462</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>SEA</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.427</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAC</td><td>5-12</td><td>0.398</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>DEN</td><td>8-9</td><td>0.394</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>ATL</td><td>7-10</td><td>0.391</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>TEN</td><td>6-11</td><td>0.367</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYJ</td><td>7-10</td><td>0.303</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>ARI</td><td>4-13</td><td>0.279</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYG</td><td>6-11</td><td>0.221</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NE</td><td>4-13</td><td>0.215</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>WSH</td><td>4-13</td><td>0.207</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CAR</td><td>2-15</td><td>0.158</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)<br />
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
First to 30% chance of Super Bowl win: Baltimore (Week 17, Final)<br />
<br />
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)<br />
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday) <br />
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final) <br />
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final) <br />
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday) <br />
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)<br />
First to clinch a division: San Francisco (Week 15, Sunday)<br />
First to clinch a first-round bye: Baltimore and San Francisco (Week 17, Final)<br />
<br />
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)<br />
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-1-final.html">Week 1, Final</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2.html">Week 2, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2_18.html">Week 2, Sunday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2-final.html">Week 2, Final</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3.html">Week 3, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3_25.html">Week 3, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3-final.html">Week 3, Final</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4-final.html">Week 4, Final</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5.html">Week 5, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5_9.html">Week 5, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5-final.html">Week 5, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6.html">Week 6, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6_16.html">Week 6, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6-final.html">Week 6, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7.html">Week 7, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7_23.html">Week 7, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7-final.html">Week 7, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8.html">Week 8, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8_30.html">Week 8, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8-final.html">Week 8, Final</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9.html">Week 9, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9_6.html">Week 9, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9-final.html">Week 9, Final</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10.html">Week 10, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_13.html">Week 10, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_14.html">Week 10, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11.html">Week 11, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_20.html">Week 11, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_21.html">Week 11, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12.html">Week 12, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_25.html">Week 12, Friday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_27.html">Week 12, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_28.html">Week 12, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13.html">Week 13, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_4.html">Week 13, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_5.html">Week 13, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14.html">Week 14, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_11.html">Week 14, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_01907897717.html">Week 14, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15.html">Week 15, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_17.html">Week 15, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01501030444.html">Week 15, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01094874355.html">Week 15, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16.html">Week 16, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_24.html">Week 16, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_25.html">Week 16, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_0655251710.html">Week 16, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-17.html">Week 17, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-17_31.html">Week 17, Saturday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-17.html">Week 17, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-18.html">Week 18, Saturday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-18_8.html">Week 18, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-wildcard.html">Wildcard Saturday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
<br />Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7086769080799703444.post-27815578344467110992024-01-14T10:00:00.040-06:002024-01-14T10:00:00.242-06:00Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Wildcard SaturdayBaltimore over San Francisco<br />
<br />Houston and Kansas City both won their home games despite being slight and very-slight underdogs, so Cleveland and Miami are out. You'll notice Cleveland is listed even below non-playoff team New Orleans, because anyone who has no chance at the Super Bowl is sorted by strength. We'll eventually see several teams below them, due to their very good point differential.<br /><br />
So who am I rooting for Sunday<br />
<br /><u>
Green Bay at Dallas (76%)</u><br />
Just for the chaos of it all, let's root for Green Bay. They're barely above .500 and Dallas was crowned a potential Super Bowl winner very early this year.<br />
<br /><u>
Los Angeles at Detroit (56%)</u><br />
This game has two QBs that were traded for each other, and somehow both teams got better. I guess I'll root for Detroit, because they haven't won anything in forever (They last won a playoff game in 1992, and before that it was 1957!), and because I'm petty and still mad at Stan Kroenke.
<br /><br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>TEAM</th><th>Record</th><th>Strength</th><th>Div</th><th>Plyff</th><th>WC</th><th>Qtr</th><th>Semi</th><th>Champ</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>BAL</td><td>13-4</td><td>0.833</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>81.6</td><td><b><span style="color: red;">55.6</span></b></td><td>32.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>SF</td><td>12-5</td><td>0.814</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>78.4</td><td><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">48.7</span></b></td><td>27.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>DAL</td><td>12-5</td><td>0.805</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>75.9</td><td>56.9</td><td>31.2</td><td>16.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>BUF</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.750</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>78.3</td><td>47.1</td><td>20.7</td><td>9.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>KC</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.665</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>44.7</td><td>15.6</td><td>5.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>DET</td><td>12-5</td><td>0.612</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>56.2</td><td>19.7</td><td>6.5</td><td>2.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>HOU</td><td>10-7</td><td>0.548</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>23.5</td><td>7.1</td><td>1.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>TB</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.550</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>54.2</td><td>15.2</td><td>4.3</td><td>1.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAR</td><td>10-7</td><td>0.551</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>43.8</td><td>12.8</td><td>3.7</td><td>1.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>GB</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.566</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>24.1</td><td>5.5</td><td>2.8</td><td>0.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>PHI</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.509</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>45.8</td><td>11.4</td><td>2.9</td><td>0.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>PIT</td><td>10-7</td><td>0.453</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>21.7</td><td>3.1</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIA</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.669</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NO</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.648</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CLE</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.566</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>JAX</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.512</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>LV</td><td>8-9</td><td>0.502</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>IND</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.465</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CIN</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.465</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIN</td><td>7-10</td><td>0.462</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CHI</td><td>7-10</td><td>0.462</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>SEA</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.427</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAC</td><td>5-12</td><td>0.398</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>DEN</td><td>8-9</td><td>0.394</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>ATL</td><td>7-10</td><td>0.391</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>TEN</td><td>6-11</td><td>0.367</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYJ</td><td>7-10</td><td>0.304</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>ARI</td><td>4-13</td><td>0.279</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYG</td><td>6-11</td><td>0.222</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NE</td><td>4-13</td><td>0.215</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>WSH</td><td>4-13</td><td>0.207</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CAR</td><td>2-15</td><td>0.158</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)<br />
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
First to 30% chance of Super Bowl win: Baltimore (Week 17, Final)<br />
<br />
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)<br />
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday) <br />
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final) <br />
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final) <br />
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday) <br />
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)<br />
First to clinch a division: San Francisco (Week 15, Sunday)<br />
First to clinch a first-round bye: Baltimore and San Francisco (Week 17, Final)<br />
<br />
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)<br />
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-1-final.html">Week 1, Final</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2.html">Week 2, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2_18.html">Week 2, Sunday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2-final.html">Week 2, Final</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3.html">Week 3, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3_25.html">Week 3, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3-final.html">Week 3, Final</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4-final.html">Week 4, Final</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5.html">Week 5, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5_9.html">Week 5, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5-final.html">Week 5, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6.html">Week 6, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6_16.html">Week 6, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6-final.html">Week 6, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7.html">Week 7, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7_23.html">Week 7, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7-final.html">Week 7, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8.html">Week 8, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8_30.html">Week 8, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8-final.html">Week 8, Final</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9.html">Week 9, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9_6.html">Week 9, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9-final.html">Week 9, Final</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10.html">Week 10, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_13.html">Week 10, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_14.html">Week 10, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11.html">Week 11, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_20.html">Week 11, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_21.html">Week 11, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12.html">Week 12, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_25.html">Week 12, Friday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_27.html">Week 12, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_28.html">Week 12, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13.html">Week 13, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_4.html">Week 13, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_5.html">Week 13, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14.html">Week 14, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_11.html">Week 14, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_01907897717.html">Week 14, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15.html">Week 15, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_17.html">Week 15, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01501030444.html">Week 15, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01094874355.html">Week 15, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16.html">Week 16, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_24.html">Week 16, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_25.html">Week 16, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_0655251710.html">Week 16, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-17.html">Week 17, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-17_31.html">Week 17, Saturday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-17.html">Week 17, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-18.html">Week 18, Saturday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-18_8.html">Week 18, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
<br />Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7086769080799703444.post-73377137392210497482024-01-08T22:00:00.090-06:002024-01-13T13:14:28.400-06:00Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 18, SundayBaltimore over San Francisco<br />
<br />Before Sunday, there were 10 playoff spots locked up, and everything went mostly as expected. Jacksonville was the one exception, still 67.6% likely to win their division, and instead they are out of the playoffs. It wasn't a huge upset, as the teams that made the playoffs instead were Pittsburgh and Buffalo, who were at 61% and 71%, respectively.<br />
<br /><br />
<b>
Belichick Watch!</b><br />
Well, he beat the odds and only tied the record at 165 all-time losses. Back in Week 13 I gave that a 33% chance of happening, and a 43% chance of losing even more. Congrats I guess? Maybe he can get 2 good seasons, or 3 mediocre ones, at a new team and win 27 games to break that record. One thing he likely can't do is reach George Halas' 31 ties.<br /><br />
<br />
<b>Math Time!</b><br />Also, I found a bug in my software I expect has been there for years, but almost never been a big deal. It was in the 3-way tiebreaker for teams in different divisions, which we actually have this year with San Francisco, Dallas, and Detroit all 12-5. Because it was sort of complicated to calculate the head to head sweep, including the possibility that the teams didn't play each other that year, I calculated 3 winning percentages, 1v2, 1v3, and 2v3. For no particular reason the teams started in the order Dallas-SF-Detroit. By checking if various pairs of them were 1 or 0, I could either declare the winner if one team beat the other two, or the loser if one team lost to the other two, then revert to the 2 team tiebreaker. There was a slight bug in what I wrote. The first five checks were fine, but the last case, where I was checking if Team 1 lost to both teams, I was checking that 1v2 was .000, and that 1v3 was 1.000. Both should have been 0.000 for a valid check. Consequently I incorrectly marked Dallas as #3 and then proceeded to break the SF-Detroit tie. Instead, that tiebreaker should have been skipped since no one swept the other two teams. I spotted this because my original output had Dallas and Detroit's matchups swapped, with Dallas playing LA and Detroit against Green Bay. That probably had a minor effect on my numbers this year, but it was much more pronounced now that every outcome has that 3-way tie.<br />
<br /><br />
Traditionally, I now list who I'm rooting for in each game.<br />
<br /><u>
Cleveland (52%) at Houston</u><br />
I don't feel strongly at all about this one. I guess let's root for old man Joe Flacco to get one more run. He's on Cleveland in case you haven't been paying attention. On paper at least, this is a close one with the road team favored.<br />
<br /><u>
Miami (50.4%) at Kansas City</u><br />...except this one is even closer, also with the road team favored. Here's the game everyone's complaining about being on streaming, including me. The NFL could at least throw St. Louis a bone and air the game OTA like they are in Kansas City. Without our own team, what are we really but an extension of the KC market? Obviously, I'll be rooting for Kansas City. We'll see if I can weasel my way into actually getting to watch this game.<br /><br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>TEAM</th><th>Record</th><th>Strength</th><th>Div</th><th>Plyff</th><th>WC</th><th>Qtr</th><th>Semi</th><th>Champ</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>BAL</td><td>13-4</td><td>0.833</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>77.8</td><td><b><span style="color: red;">53.4</span></b></td><td>31.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>SF</td><td>12-5</td><td>0.814</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>78.4</td><td><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">48.7</span></b></td><td>27.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>DAL</td><td>12-5</td><td>0.805</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>76.0</td><td>57.0</td><td>31.2</td><td>16.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>BUF</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.750</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>78.3</td><td>51.2</td><td>22.5</td><td>10.6</td></tr>
<tr><td>KC</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.665</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>49.6</td><td>22.1</td><td>7.7</td><td>2.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIA</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.669</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>50.4</td><td>18.1</td><td>7.6</td><td>2.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>DET</td><td>12-5</td><td>0.612</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>56.3</td><td>19.7</td><td>6.5</td><td>2.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>CLE</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.566</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>51.8</td><td>14.8</td><td>4.2</td><td>1.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>TB</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.550</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>54.2</td><td>15.2</td><td>4.3</td><td>1.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAR</td><td>10-7</td><td>0.551</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>43.7</td><td>12.7</td><td>3.7</td><td>1.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>HOU</td><td>10-7</td><td>0.548</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>48.2</td><td>13.1</td><td>3.5</td><td>1.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>GB</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.566</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>24.0</td><td>5.5</td><td>2.8</td><td>0.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>PHI</td><td>11-6</td><td>0.509</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>45.8</td><td>11.5</td><td>2.9</td><td>0.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>PIT</td><td>10-7</td><td>0.453</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>21.7</td><td>3.1</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>NO</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.648</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>JAX</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.512</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>LV</td><td>8-9</td><td>0.502</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>IND</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.465</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CIN</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.465</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIN</td><td>7-10</td><td>0.462</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CHI</td><td>7-10</td><td>0.462</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>SEA</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.427</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAC</td><td>5-12</td><td>0.398</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>DEN</td><td>8-9</td><td>0.394</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>ATL</td><td>7-10</td><td>0.391</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>TEN</td><td>6-11</td><td>0.367</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYJ</td><td>7-10</td><td>0.304</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>ARI</td><td>4-13</td><td>0.279</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYG</td><td>6-11</td><td>0.222</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NE</td><td>4-13</td><td>0.215</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>WSH</td><td>4-13</td><td>0.207</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CAR</td><td>2-15</td><td>0.158</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)<br />
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
First to 30% chance of Super Bowl win: Baltimore (Week 17, Final)<br />
<br />
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)<br />
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday) <br />
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final) <br />
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final) <br />
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday) <br />
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)<br />
First to clinch a division: San Francisco (Week 15, Sunday)<br />
First to clinch a first-round bye: Baltimore and San Francisco (Week 17, Final)<br />
<br />
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)<br />
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-1-final.html">Week 1, Final</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2.html">Week 2, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2_18.html">Week 2, Sunday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2-final.html">Week 2, Final</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3.html">Week 3, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3_25.html">Week 3, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3-final.html">Week 3, Final</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4-final.html">Week 4, Final</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5.html">Week 5, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5_9.html">Week 5, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5-final.html">Week 5, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6.html">Week 6, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6_16.html">Week 6, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6-final.html">Week 6, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7.html">Week 7, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7_23.html">Week 7, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7-final.html">Week 7, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8.html">Week 8, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8_30.html">Week 8, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8-final.html">Week 8, Final</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9.html">Week 9, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9_6.html">Week 9, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9-final.html">Week 9, Final</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10.html">Week 10, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_13.html">Week 10, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_14.html">Week 10, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11.html">Week 11, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_20.html">Week 11, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_21.html">Week 11, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12.html">Week 12, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_25.html">Week 12, Friday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_27.html">Week 12, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_28.html">Week 12, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13.html">Week 13, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_4.html">Week 13, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_5.html">Week 13, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14.html">Week 14, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_11.html">Week 14, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_01907897717.html">Week 14, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15.html">Week 15, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_17.html">Week 15, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01501030444.html">Week 15, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01094874355.html">Week 15, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16.html">Week 16, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_24.html">Week 16, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_25.html">Week 16, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_0655251710.html">Week 16, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-17.html">Week 17, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-17_31.html">Week 17, Saturday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-17.html">Week 17, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-18.html">Week 18, Saturday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
<br />Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7086769080799703444.post-49222918704391755362024-01-07T10:00:00.035-06:002024-01-07T15:38:58.457-06:00Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 18, SaturdayBaltimore over San Francisco<br />
<br />I was a little unsure the NFL really picked the right games for Saturday, but I think it worked out. Pittsburgh was playing for a chance at the playoffs, and defeated Baltimore, who had the #1 seed locked up and nothing to play for but pride. With the game in Baltimore I thought there might be some chance they'd go all out to win, but without Lamar Jackson, Pittsburgh kept their hopes alive. Consequently, they actually could have clinched their playoff spot on Saturday if the other game had ended in a tie. But, Houston beat Indianapolis, so Houston is in, Indy is out, and Pittsburgh waits for some help tomorrow. They either need Jacksonville to lose or tie to fall behind them (10-7 vs 9-8/9-7-1), or if Jacksonville wins to tie them at 10-7, they need Buffalo to lose and join the tiebreaker. In other words, they'll lose the 2-team tiebreaker to Jacksonville, but win the 3-team tiebreaker against Buffalo <i>and</i> Jacksonville.
<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>TEAM</th><th>Record</th><th>Strength</th><th>Div</th><th>Plyff</th><th>WC</th><th>Qtr</th><th>Semi</th><th>Champ</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>BAL</td><td>13-4</td><td>0.834</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>77.4</td><td><b><span style="color: red;">55.5</span></b></td><td>34.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>SF</td><td>12-4</td><td>0.809</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>78.1</td><td><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">51.4</span></b></td><td>28.6</td></tr>
<tr><td>DAL</td><td>11-5</td><td>0.767</td><td>92.6</td><td>++</td><td>74.9</td><td>53.0</td><td>26.8</td><td>13.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>BUF</td><td>10-6</td><td>0.735</td><td>57.1</td><td>71.0</td><td>49.0</td><td>28.8</td><td>12.7</td><td>6.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIA</td><td>11-5</td><td>0.675</td><td>42.9</td><td>++</td><td>56.3</td><td>26.0</td><td>10.1</td><td>4.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>KC</td><td>10-6</td><td>0.660</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>55.1</td><td>27.2</td><td>9.3</td><td>3.6</td></tr>
<tr><td>DET</td><td>11-5</td><td>0.596</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>55.1</td><td>20.9</td><td>6.7</td><td>2.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>CLE</td><td>11-5</td><td>0.598</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>56.5</td><td>19.6</td><td>6.1</td><td>2.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>PHI</td><td>11-5</td><td>0.537</td><td>7.4</td><td>++</td><td>50.7</td><td>15.2</td><td>4.3</td><td>1.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAR</td><td>9-7</td><td>0.549</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>35.7</td><td>9.6</td><td>3.5</td><td>1.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>HOU</td><td>10-7</td><td>0.549</td><td>32.4</td><td>++</td><td>37.5</td><td>10.0</td><td>3.2</td><td>0.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>TB</td><td>8-8</td><td>0.529</td><td>83.1</td><td>83.1</td><td>39.5</td><td>11.5</td><td>3.2</td><td>0.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>GB</td><td>8-8</td><td>0.549</td><td>-</td><td>61.3</td><td>26.4</td><td>7.4</td><td>2.5</td><td>0.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>JAX</td><td>9-7</td><td>0.528</td><td>67.6</td><td>67.6</td><td>29.0</td><td>8.2</td><td>2.1</td><td>0.6</td></tr>
<tr><td>NO</td><td>8-8</td><td>0.591</td><td>10.7</td><td>18.6</td><td>8.5</td><td>2.7</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>PIT</td><td>10-7</td><td>0.453</td><td>-</td><td>61.4</td><td>16.7</td><td>2.9</td><td>0.9</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>SEA</td><td>8-8</td><td>0.426</td><td>-</td><td>28.0</td><td>6.1</td><td>0.9</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>ATL</td><td>7-9</td><td>0.454</td><td>6.2</td><td>6.2</td><td>2.5</td><td>0.6</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIN</td><td>7-9</td><td>0.483</td><td>-</td><td>2.7</td><td>0.7</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>CHI</td><td>7-9</td><td>0.479</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>LV</td><td>7-9</td><td>0.473</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>IND</td><td>9-8</td><td>0.465</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CIN</td><td>8-8</td><td>0.431</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>DEN</td><td>8-8</td><td>0.419</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAC</td><td>5-11</td><td>0.402</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>TEN</td><td>5-11</td><td>0.349</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>ARI</td><td>4-12</td><td>0.283</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYJ</td><td>6-10</td><td>0.282</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NE</td><td>4-12</td><td>0.248</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>WSH</td><td>4-12</td><td>0.246</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYG</td><td>5-11</td><td>0.201</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CAR</td><td>2-14</td><td>0.186</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)<br />
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
First to 30% chance of Super Bowl win: Baltimore (Week 17, Final)<br />
<br />
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)<br />
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday) <br />
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final) <br />
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final) <br />
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday) <br />
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)<br />
First to clinch a division: San Francisco (Week 15, Sunday)<br />
First to clinch a first-round bye: Baltimore and San Francisco (Week 17, Final)<br />
<br />
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)<br />
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-1-final.html">Week 1, Final</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2.html">Week 2, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2_18.html">Week 2, Sunday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2-final.html">Week 2, Final</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3.html">Week 3, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3_25.html">Week 3, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3-final.html">Week 3, Final</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4-final.html">Week 4, Final</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5.html">Week 5, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5_9.html">Week 5, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5-final.html">Week 5, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6.html">Week 6, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6_16.html">Week 6, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6-final.html">Week 6, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7.html">Week 7, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7_23.html">Week 7, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7-final.html">Week 7, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8.html">Week 8, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8_30.html">Week 8, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8-final.html">Week 8, Final</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9.html">Week 9, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9_6.html">Week 9, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9-final.html">Week 9, Final</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10.html">Week 10, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_13.html">Week 10, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_14.html">Week 10, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11.html">Week 11, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_20.html">Week 11, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_21.html">Week 11, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12.html">Week 12, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_25.html">Week 12, Friday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_27.html">Week 12, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_28.html">Week 12, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13.html">Week 13, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_4.html">Week 13, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_5.html">Week 13, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14.html">Week 14, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_11.html">Week 14, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_01907897717.html">Week 14, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15.html">Week 15, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_17.html">Week 15, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01501030444.html">Week 15, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01094874355.html">Week 15, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16.html">Week 16, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_24.html">Week 16, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_25.html">Week 16, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_0655251710.html">Week 16, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-17.html">Week 17, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-17_31.html">Week 17, Saturday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2024/01/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-17.html">Week 17, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
<br />Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7086769080799703444.post-76520676807326813612024-01-01T22:00:00.087-06:002024-01-07T00:11:19.037-06:00Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 17, FinalBaltimore over San Francisco<br />
<br />Everything's starting to come together now. There's still one week left, with 2 games Saturday and 14 on Sunday. I thought in the past the final week was all on Sunday, but maybe I'm misremembering. The #1 seeds are decided, which is more important now that there is only one bye per conference. Those are, of course, Baltimore and San Francisco, and you can see that they have already clinched spots in the wildcard round. Chicago, Las Vegas, Cincinnati, and Denver were all eliminated from the playoffs, leaving Kansas City as the last team standing in the AFC West. Other than Baltimore in the AFC North though, no other division was claimed, so 4 remain (AFC South and East, NFC South and East).<br /><br />
<b>
Belichick Watch!</b><br /><i>
Bill Belichick now has 164 career losses with 1 game to play. The record is 165, so at most he can tie it this year. Assuming no ties and no quitting/firing, here's his likelihood of finishing the season at each record.</i><br /><br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>Record</th><th>Pct</th><th>Result</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>0-1</td><td>54.43</td><td>an unsatisfying tie</td></tr>
<tr><td>1-0</td><td>45.57</td><td>Maybe next year</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />New England lost to Buffalo to keep Bill on the path to keep things somewhat interesting, but like I said, there's something so unsatisfying about a tie. There's nothing at stake but draft picks and pride (if any) in next week's game against the New York Jets, so who knows what will happen.
<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>TEAM</th><th>Record</th><th>Strength</th><th>Div</th><th>Plyff</th><th>WC</th><th>Qtr</th><th>Semi</th><th>Champ</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>BAL</td><td>13-3</td><td>0.830</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>74.8</td><td><b><span style="color: red;">53.2</span></b></td><td>32.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>SF</td><td>12-4</td><td>0.809</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>78.1</td><td><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">51.4</span></b></td><td>28.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>DAL</td><td>11-5</td><td>0.767</td><td>92.6</td><td>++</td><td>74.9</td><td>53.0</td><td>26.8</td><td>13.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>BUF</td><td>10-6</td><td>0.735</td><td>57.1</td><td>96.0</td><td>64.3</td><td>35.4</td><td>16.7</td><td>7.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIA</td><td>11-5</td><td>0.675</td><td>42.9</td><td>++</td><td>52.2</td><td>24.0</td><td>9.5</td><td>3.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>KC</td><td>10-6</td><td>0.660</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>52.7</td><td>26.2</td><td>9.0</td><td>3.6</td></tr>
<tr><td>DET</td><td>11-5</td><td>0.596</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>55.2</td><td>20.9</td><td>6.7</td><td>2.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>CLE</td><td>11-5</td><td>0.598</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>57.6</td><td>20.4</td><td>6.4</td><td>2.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>PHI</td><td>11-5</td><td>0.537</td><td>7.4</td><td>++</td><td>50.7</td><td>15.2</td><td>4.3</td><td>1.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAR</td><td>9-7</td><td>0.549</td><td>-</td><td>++</td><td>35.7</td><td>9.6</td><td>3.5</td><td>1.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>TB</td><td>8-8</td><td>0.529</td><td>83.1</td><td>83.1</td><td>39.5</td><td>11.5</td><td>3.2</td><td>0.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>JAX</td><td>9-7</td><td>0.528</td><td>67.6</td><td>83.1</td><td>33.9</td><td>9.6</td><td>2.6</td><td>0.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>GB</td><td>8-8</td><td>0.549</td><td>-</td><td>61.3</td><td>26.4</td><td>7.4</td><td>2.5</td><td>0.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>HOU</td><td>9-7</td><td>0.540</td><td>18.4</td><td>56.7</td><td>20.8</td><td>5.8</td><td>1.7</td><td>0.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>NO</td><td>8-8</td><td>0.591</td><td>10.7</td><td>18.6</td><td>8.5</td><td>2.7</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>IND</td><td>9-7</td><td>0.473</td><td>14.0</td><td>43.3</td><td>13.3</td><td>3.0</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>SEA</td><td>8-8</td><td>0.426</td><td>-</td><td>28.0</td><td>6.1</td><td>0.9</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>PIT</td><td>9-7</td><td>0.438</td><td>-</td><td>20.9</td><td>5.2</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>ATL</td><td>7-9</td><td>0.454</td><td>6.1</td><td>6.1</td><td>2.5</td><td>0.6</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIN</td><td>7-9</td><td>0.483</td><td>-</td><td>2.7</td><td>0.7</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>CHI</td><td>7-9</td><td>0.479</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>LV</td><td>7-9</td><td>0.473</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CIN</td><td>8-8</td><td>0.431</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>DEN</td><td>8-8</td><td>0.419</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAC</td><td>5-11</td><td>0.402</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>TEN</td><td>5-11</td><td>0.349</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>ARI</td><td>4-12</td><td>0.283</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYJ</td><td>6-10</td><td>0.282</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NE</td><td>4-12</td><td>0.248</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>WSH</td><td>4-12</td><td>0.246</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYG</td><td>5-11</td><td>0.201</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CAR</td><td>2-14</td><td>0.186</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)<br />
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
First to 30% chance of Super Bowl win: Baltimore (Week 17, Final)<br />
<br />
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)<br />
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday) <br />
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final) <br />
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final) <br />
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday) <br />
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)<br />
First to clinch a division: San Francisco (Week 15, Sunday)<br />
First to clinch a first-round bye: Baltimore and San Francisco (Week 17, Final)<br />
<br />
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)<br />
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-1-final.html">Week 1, Final</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2.html">Week 2, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2_18.html">Week 2, Sunday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2-final.html">Week 2, Final</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3.html">Week 3, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3_25.html">Week 3, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3-final.html">Week 3, Final</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4-final.html">Week 4, Final</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5.html">Week 5, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5_9.html">Week 5, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5-final.html">Week 5, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6.html">Week 6, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6_16.html">Week 6, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6-final.html">Week 6, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7.html">Week 7, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7_23.html">Week 7, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7-final.html">Week 7, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8.html">Week 8, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8_30.html">Week 8, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8-final.html">Week 8, Final</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9.html">Week 9, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9_6.html">Week 9, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9-final.html">Week 9, Final</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10.html">Week 10, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_13.html">Week 10, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_14.html">Week 10, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11.html">Week 11, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_20.html">Week 11, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_21.html">Week 11, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12.html">Week 12, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_25.html">Week 12, Friday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_27.html">Week 12, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_28.html">Week 12, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13.html">Week 13, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_4.html">Week 13, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_5.html">Week 13, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14.html">Week 14, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_11.html">Week 14, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_01907897717.html">Week 14, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15.html">Week 15, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_17.html">Week 15, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01501030444.html">Week 15, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01094874355.html">Week 15, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16.html">Week 16, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_24.html">Week 16, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_25.html">Week 16, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_0655251710.html">Week 16, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-17.html">Week 17, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-17_31.html">Week 17, Saturday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
<br />Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7086769080799703444.post-20577030388200125282023-12-31T22:00:00.001-06:002024-01-01T22:03:44.796-06:00Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 17, SaturdayBaltimore over San Francisco<br />
<br />Dallas edged out Detroit with a controversial penalty call at the end of the game, but everyone but Detroit fans will forget that in a week or two. Both teams were already in the playoffs, and Dallas now has a bit better chance of taking their division from Philadelphia, but at the top, everything stays the same.<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>TEAM</th><th>Record</th><th>Strength</th><th>Div</th><th>Plyff</th><th>WC</th><th>Qtr</th><th>Semi</th><th>Champ</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>SF</td><td>11-4</td><td>0.781</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>95.5</td><td>68.6</td><td><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">44.0</span></b></td><td>24.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>BAL</td><td>12-3</td><td>0.791</td><td>95.7</td><td>++</td><td>94.2</td><td>65.7</td><td><b><span style="color: red;">42.2</span></b></td><td>24.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>DAL</td><td>11-5</td><td>0.767</td><td>34.0</td><td>++</td><td>74.1</td><td>49.4</td><td>28.6</td><td>15.6</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIA</td><td>11-4</td><td>0.729</td><td>74.5</td><td>++</td><td>74.3</td><td>44.7</td><td>22.1</td><td>11.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>BUF</td><td>9-6</td><td>0.724</td><td>25.5</td><td>92.1</td><td>57.0</td><td>30.6</td><td>15.5</td><td>7.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>KC</td><td>9-6</td><td>0.644</td><td>95.6</td><td>96.9</td><td>45.9</td><td>20.3</td><td>8.1</td><td>3.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>DET</td><td>11-5</td><td>0.596</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>59.3</td><td>23.9</td><td>8.6</td><td>3.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>CLE</td><td>11-5</td><td>0.598</td><td>4.3</td><td>++</td><td>62.0</td><td>22.3</td><td>7.8</td><td>2.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>PHI</td><td>11-4</td><td>0.545</td><td>66.0</td><td>++</td><td>61.6</td><td>24.0</td><td>7.2</td><td>2.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>TB</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.550</td><td>89.7</td><td>89.8</td><td>31.4</td><td>11.6</td><td>4.0</td><td>1.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAR</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.547</td><td>-</td><td>75.8</td><td>31.5</td><td>10.2</td><td>3.6</td><td>1.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>JAX</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.477</td><td>64.5</td><td>77.4</td><td>27.1</td><td>6.9</td><td>1.8</td><td>0.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIN</td><td>7-8</td><td>0.532</td><td>-</td><td>27.5</td><td>10.8</td><td>3.1</td><td>1.1</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>HOU</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.494</td><td>18.8</td><td>39.7</td><td>13.5</td><td>3.5</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>SEA</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.438</td><td>-</td><td>63.0</td><td>19.6</td><td>4.5</td><td>1.2</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>GB</td><td>7-8</td><td>0.504</td><td>-</td><td>26.5</td><td>9.9</td><td>2.7</td><td>0.9</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>IND</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.468</td><td>16.7</td><td>41.2</td><td>12.4</td><td>2.9</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>NO</td><td>7-8</td><td>0.570</td><td>5.9</td><td>9.3</td><td>3.6</td><td>1.3</td><td>0.5</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>LV</td><td>7-8</td><td>0.480</td><td>2.6</td><td>19.0</td><td>5.1</td><td>1.1</td><td>0.4</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>CIN</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.447</td><td>-</td><td>17.0</td><td>4.5</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>ATL</td><td>7-8</td><td>0.498</td><td>4.4</td><td>7.9</td><td>2.6</td><td>0.7</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>PIT</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.420</td><td>-</td><td>13.0</td><td>3.1</td><td>0.6</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>DEN</td><td>7-8</td><td>0.408</td><td>1.8</td><td>3.8</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>CHI</td><td>6-9</td><td>0.439</td><td>-</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAC</td><td>5-10</td><td>0.418</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>TEN</td><td>5-10</td><td>0.398</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYJ</td><td>6-10</td><td>0.282</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>ARI</td><td>3-12</td><td>0.274</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>WSH</td><td>4-11</td><td>0.274</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NE</td><td>4-11</td><td>0.257</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CAR</td><td>2-13</td><td>0.231</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYG</td><td>5-10</td><td>0.204</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)<br />
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)<br />
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday) <br />
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final) <br />
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final) <br />
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday) <br />
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)<br />
First to clinch a division: San Francisco (Week 15, Sunday)<br />
<br />
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)<br />
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-1-final.html">Week 1, Final</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2.html">Week 2, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2_18.html">Week 2, Sunday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2-final.html">Week 2, Final</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3.html">Week 3, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3_25.html">Week 3, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3-final.html">Week 3, Final</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4-final.html">Week 4, Final</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5.html">Week 5, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5_9.html">Week 5, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5-final.html">Week 5, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6.html">Week 6, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6_16.html">Week 6, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6-final.html">Week 6, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7.html">Week 7, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7_23.html">Week 7, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7-final.html">Week 7, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8.html">Week 8, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8_30.html">Week 8, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8-final.html">Week 8, Final</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9.html">Week 9, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9_6.html">Week 9, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9-final.html">Week 9, Final</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10.html">Week 10, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_13.html">Week 10, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_14.html">Week 10, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11.html">Week 11, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_20.html">Week 11, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_21.html">Week 11, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12.html">Week 12, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_25.html">Week 12, Friday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_27.html">Week 12, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_28.html">Week 12, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13.html">Week 13, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_4.html">Week 13, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_5.html">Week 13, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14.html">Week 14, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_11.html">Week 14, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_01907897717.html">Week 14, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15.html">Week 15, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_17.html">Week 15, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01501030444.html">Week 15, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01094874355.html">Week 15, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16.html">Week 16, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_24.html">Week 16, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_25.html">Week 16, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_0655251710.html">Week 16, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-17.html">Week 17, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
<br />Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7086769080799703444.post-74118738380697673342023-12-29T22:00:00.001-06:002023-12-30T19:40:58.514-06:00Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 17, ThursdayBaltimore over San Francisco<br />
<br />With only 4 regular season gamedays left, stuff's going to start happening fast. For example, last night we had one game, and one clinch, with Cleveland now guaranteed a playoff spot. It'll probably be a wildcard, but they have a 4% chance of taking the NFC North away from Baltimore. Speaking of them, notice that San Francisco is on top of the charts but Baltimore is still listed as my projected winner. That's because I sort by chances to win the Super Bowl, which has San Francisco on top (24.93% to 24.90%) with a (currently) easier path, but Baltimore is the stronger team and would be favored in a matchup.<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>TEAM</th><th>Record</th><th>Strength</th><th>Div</th><th>Plyff</th><th>WC</th><th>Qtr</th><th>Semi</th><th>Champ</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>SF</td><td>11-4</td><td>0.781</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>94.9</td><td>67.9</td><td><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">44.3</span></b></td><td>24.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>BAL</td><td>12-3</td><td>0.791</td><td>95.7</td><td>++</td><td>94.2</td><td>65.7</td><td><b><span style="color: red;">42.2</span></b></td><td>24.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>DAL</td><td>10-5</td><td>0.759</td><td>24.3</td><td>++</td><td>73.0</td><td>47.5</td><td>27.3</td><td>14.6</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIA</td><td>11-4</td><td>0.729</td><td>74.5</td><td>++</td><td>74.3</td><td>44.7</td><td>22.1</td><td>11.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>BUF</td><td>9-6</td><td>0.724</td><td>25.5</td><td>92.1</td><td>57.0</td><td>30.6</td><td>15.5</td><td>7.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>KC</td><td>9-6</td><td>0.644</td><td>95.6</td><td>96.9</td><td>45.9</td><td>20.3</td><td>8.1</td><td>3.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>DET</td><td>11-4</td><td>0.596</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>61.6</td><td>26.4</td><td>9.4</td><td>3.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>CLE</td><td>11-5</td><td>0.598</td><td>4.3</td><td>++</td><td>62.0</td><td>22.3</td><td>7.8</td><td>2.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>PHI</td><td>11-4</td><td>0.545</td><td>75.7</td><td>++</td><td>60.5</td><td>23.6</td><td>7.2</td><td>2.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>TB</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.550</td><td>89.7</td><td>89.8</td><td>30.0</td><td>11.4</td><td>4.0</td><td>1.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAR</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.547</td><td>-</td><td>75.8</td><td>32.1</td><td>10.3</td><td>3.7</td><td>1.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>JAX</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.477</td><td>64.5</td><td>77.4</td><td>27.1</td><td>6.9</td><td>1.8</td><td>0.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIN</td><td>7-8</td><td>0.532</td><td>-</td><td>27.4</td><td>11.1</td><td>3.2</td><td>1.1</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>SEA</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.438</td><td>-</td><td>63.0</td><td>20.3</td><td>4.7</td><td>1.3</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>HOU</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.494</td><td>18.8</td><td>39.7</td><td>13.5</td><td>3.5</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>GB</td><td>7-8</td><td>0.504</td><td>-</td><td>26.5</td><td>10.2</td><td>2.8</td><td>0.9</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>IND</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.468</td><td>16.7</td><td>41.2</td><td>12.4</td><td>2.9</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>NO</td><td>7-8</td><td>0.570</td><td>5.9</td><td>9.3</td><td>3.6</td><td>1.3</td><td>0.5</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>LV</td><td>7-8</td><td>0.480</td><td>2.6</td><td>19.0</td><td>5.1</td><td>1.1</td><td>0.4</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>CIN</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.447</td><td>-</td><td>17.0</td><td>4.5</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>ATL</td><td>7-8</td><td>0.498</td><td>4.4</td><td>7.9</td><td>2.6</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>PIT</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.420</td><td>-</td><td>13.0</td><td>3.1</td><td>0.6</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>DEN</td><td>7-8</td><td>0.408</td><td>1.8</td><td>3.8</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>CHI</td><td>6-9</td><td>0.439</td><td>-</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAC</td><td>5-10</td><td>0.418</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>TEN</td><td>5-10</td><td>0.398</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYJ</td><td>6-10</td><td>0.282</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>ARI</td><td>3-12</td><td>0.274</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>WSH</td><td>4-11</td><td>0.274</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NE</td><td>4-11</td><td>0.257</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CAR</td><td>2-13</td><td>0.231</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYG</td><td>5-10</td><td>0.204</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)<br />
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)<br />
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday) <br />
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final) <br />
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final) <br />
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday) <br />
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)<br />
First to clinch a division: San Francisco (Week 15, Sunday)<br />
<br />
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)<br />
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-1-final.html">Week 1, Final</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2.html">Week 2, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2_18.html">Week 2, Sunday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2-final.html">Week 2, Final</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3.html">Week 3, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3_25.html">Week 3, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3-final.html">Week 3, Final</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4-final.html">Week 4, Final</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5.html">Week 5, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5_9.html">Week 5, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5-final.html">Week 5, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6.html">Week 6, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6_16.html">Week 6, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6-final.html">Week 6, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7.html">Week 7, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7_23.html">Week 7, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7-final.html">Week 7, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8.html">Week 8, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8_30.html">Week 8, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8-final.html">Week 8, Final</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9.html">Week 9, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9_6.html">Week 9, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9-final.html">Week 9, Final</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10.html">Week 10, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_13.html">Week 10, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_14.html">Week 10, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11.html">Week 11, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_20.html">Week 11, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_21.html">Week 11, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12.html">Week 12, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_25.html">Week 12, Friday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_27.html">Week 12, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_28.html">Week 12, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13.html">Week 13, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_4.html">Week 13, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_5.html">Week 13, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14.html">Week 14, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_11.html">Week 14, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_01907897717.html">Week 14, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15.html">Week 15, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_17.html">Week 15, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01501030444.html">Week 15, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01094874355.html">Week 15, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16.html">Week 16, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_24.html">Week 16, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_25.html">Week 16, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_0655251710.html">Week 16, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
<br />Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7086769080799703444.post-39732873452017341762023-12-26T22:00:00.007-06:002023-12-26T22:00:00.133-06:00Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 16, FinalBaltimore over San Francisco<br />
<br />I don't always look very far forward in the schedule, so I didn't realize San Francisco and Baltimore would be playing Monday Night until sometime this weekend. Both are still favored to win their conferences, but a nice tidy result is that Baltimore is now favored to win the rematch. The only other elimination yesterday was the New York Giants, who were holding onto slim playoff hopes at 5-9 but with a loss to Philadelphia, now take their proper place at the bottom of the chart, having the worst point differential in the league. The early game featured Kansas City, absolutely refusing to lock up their playoff spot and losing to Las Vegas. 2 more losses and 2 more wins by Vegas and/or Denver could leave Kansas City out of the playoffs completely. Of course, with 8 teams eliminated and 4 in single digit probabilities, so close they are probably already in offseason mode, games can get a little unpredictable in the last few weeks.<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>TEAM</th><th>Record</th><th>Strength</th><th>Div</th><th>Plyff</th><th>WC</th><th>Qtr</th><th>Semi</th><th>Champ</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>BAL</td><td>12-3</td><td>0.791</td><td>96.9</td><td>++</td><td>94.1</td><td>66.4</td><td><b><span style="color: red;">42.7</span></b></td><td>25.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>SF</td><td>11-4</td><td>0.781</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>94.9</td><td>67.9</td><td><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">44.3</span></b></td><td>24.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>DAL</td><td>10-5</td><td>0.759</td><td>24.3</td><td>++</td><td>72.9</td><td>47.5</td><td>27.3</td><td>14.6</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIA</td><td>11-4</td><td>0.729</td><td>74.5</td><td>++</td><td>74.8</td><td>45.6</td><td>22.5</td><td>11.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>BUF</td><td>9-6</td><td>0.724</td><td>25.5</td><td>91.9</td><td>57.0</td><td>30.9</td><td>15.6</td><td>7.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>KC</td><td>9-6</td><td>0.644</td><td>95.6</td><td>96.8</td><td>46.7</td><td>20.9</td><td>8.3</td><td>3.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>DET</td><td>11-4</td><td>0.596</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>61.6</td><td>26.4</td><td>9.4</td><td>3.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>PHI</td><td>11-4</td><td>0.545</td><td>75.7</td><td>++</td><td>60.5</td><td>23.6</td><td>7.2</td><td>2.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>CLE</td><td>10-5</td><td>0.567</td><td>3.1</td><td>99.9</td><td>58.0</td><td>19.1</td><td>6.2</td><td>2.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>TB</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.550</td><td>89.7</td><td>89.8</td><td>30.0</td><td>11.5</td><td>4.0</td><td>1.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAR</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.547</td><td>-</td><td>75.8</td><td>32.1</td><td>10.3</td><td>3.7</td><td>1.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>JAX</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.477</td><td>64.5</td><td>77.1</td><td>28.7</td><td>7.3</td><td>1.9</td><td>0.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIN</td><td>7-8</td><td>0.532</td><td>-</td><td>27.5</td><td>11.1</td><td>3.2</td><td>1.1</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>HOU</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.494</td><td>18.8</td><td>39.6</td><td>14.0</td><td>3.7</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>SEA</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.438</td><td>-</td><td>63.0</td><td>20.3</td><td>4.7</td><td>1.3</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>GB</td><td>7-8</td><td>0.504</td><td>-</td><td>26.5</td><td>10.2</td><td>2.8</td><td>0.9</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>IND</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.468</td><td>16.7</td><td>40.9</td><td>12.9</td><td>3.1</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>NO</td><td>7-8</td><td>0.570</td><td>5.9</td><td>9.3</td><td>3.6</td><td>1.3</td><td>0.5</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>LV</td><td>7-8</td><td>0.480</td><td>2.6</td><td>18.9</td><td>5.1</td><td>1.2</td><td>0.4</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>CIN</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.447</td><td>-</td><td>17.9</td><td>4.7</td><td>1.1</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>ATL</td><td>7-8</td><td>0.498</td><td>4.4</td><td>7.9</td><td>2.6</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>PIT</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.420</td><td>-</td><td>13.0</td><td>3.1</td><td>0.7</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>DEN</td><td>7-8</td><td>0.408</td><td>1.8</td><td>3.8</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>CHI</td><td>6-9</td><td>0.439</td><td>-</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAC</td><td>5-10</td><td>0.418</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>TEN</td><td>5-10</td><td>0.399</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYJ</td><td>6-9</td><td>0.311</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>ARI</td><td>3-12</td><td>0.274</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>WSH</td><td>4-11</td><td>0.274</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NE</td><td>4-11</td><td>0.257</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CAR</td><td>2-13</td><td>0.231</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYG</td><td>5-10</td><td>0.204</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)<br />
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)<br />
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday) <br />
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final) <br />
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final) <br />
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday) <br />
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)<br />
First to clinch a division: San Francisco (Week 15, Sunday)<br />
<br />
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)<br />
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-1-final.html">Week 1, Final</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2.html">Week 2, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2_18.html">Week 2, Sunday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2-final.html">Week 2, Final</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3.html">Week 3, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3_25.html">Week 3, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3-final.html">Week 3, Final</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4-final.html">Week 4, Final</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5.html">Week 5, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5_9.html">Week 5, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5-final.html">Week 5, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6.html">Week 6, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6_16.html">Week 6, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6-final.html">Week 6, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7.html">Week 7, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7_23.html">Week 7, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7-final.html">Week 7, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8.html">Week 8, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8_30.html">Week 8, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8-final.html">Week 8, Final</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9.html">Week 9, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9_6.html">Week 9, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9-final.html">Week 9, Final</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10.html">Week 10, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_13.html">Week 10, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_14.html">Week 10, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11.html">Week 11, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_20.html">Week 11, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_21.html">Week 11, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12.html">Week 12, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_25.html">Week 12, Friday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_27.html">Week 12, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_28.html">Week 12, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13.html">Week 13, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_4.html">Week 13, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_5.html">Week 13, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14.html">Week 14, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_11.html">Week 14, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_01907897717.html">Week 14, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15.html">Week 15, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_17.html">Week 15, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01501030444.html">Week 15, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01094874355.html">Week 15, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16.html">Week 16, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_24.html">Week 16, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_25.html">Week 16, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
<br />Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7086769080799703444.post-61934285535092574482023-12-25T22:00:00.014-06:002023-12-25T23:14:23.778-06:00Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 16, SundaySan Francisco over Baltimore.<br />
<br />There were no new playoff eliminations Sunday, but Miami did clinch a playoff spot and Detroit clinched the NFC North, also eliminating Minnesota from winning that title. I figured that hadn't happened for awhile, and as it turns out, technically it never happened. Detroit last won their division back in 1993, when it was the NFC Central and included Tampa Bay.<br /><br />
<b>
Belichick Watch!</b><br /><i>
Bill Belichick now has 163 career losses with 2 games to play. The record is 165, so at most he can tie it this year. Assuming no ties and no quitting/firing, here's his likelihood of finishing the season at each record.</i><br /><br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>Record</th><th>Pct</th><th>Result</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>0-2</td><td>49.93</td><td>an unsatisfying tie</td></tr>
<tr><td>1-1</td><td>44.99</td><td rowspan="2">Maybe next year</td></tr>
<tr><td>2-0</td><td>5.07</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />New England beat Denver and keeps Bill out of the record books alone for at least this year. We'll see if he is a head coach there or elsewhere next year. For now I guess we can track to see if he's at least still on track to tie it, which will be as unsatisfying as when Jeff Fisher was fired after tying it.
<br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>TEAM</th><th>Record</th><th>Strength</th><th>Div</th><th>Plyff</th><th>WC</th><th>Qtr</th><th>Semi</th><th>Champ</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>SF</td><td>11-3</td><td>0.791</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>98.0</td><td>72.6</td><td><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">47.9</span></b></td><td>28.6</td></tr>
<tr><td>BAL</td><td>11-3</td><td>0.771</td><td>83.3</td><td>++</td><td>90.4</td><td>61.3</td><td><b><span style="color: red;">37.8</span></b></td><td>20.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>DAL</td><td>10-5</td><td>0.759</td><td>35.3</td><td>++</td><td>73.3</td><td>48.3</td><td>26.5</td><td>14.6</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIA</td><td>11-4</td><td>0.729</td><td>75.7</td><td>++</td><td>72.7</td><td>43.8</td><td>23.1</td><td>11.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>BUF</td><td>9-6</td><td>0.724</td><td>24.3</td><td>91.9</td><td>53.7</td><td>29.6</td><td>15.7</td><td>7.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>KC</td><td>9-5</td><td>0.653</td><td>98.7</td><td>99.1</td><td>56.2</td><td>27.1</td><td>11.5</td><td>4.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>DET</td><td>11-4</td><td>0.596</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>60.4</td><td>26.2</td><td>8.9</td><td>3.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>CLE</td><td>10-5</td><td>0.567</td><td>16.7</td><td>99.9</td><td>59.1</td><td>20.5</td><td>6.9</td><td>2.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>PHI</td><td>10-4</td><td>0.531</td><td>64.7</td><td>++</td><td>54.0</td><td>19.6</td><td>5.6</td><td>1.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>TB</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.550</td><td>89.7</td><td>89.7</td><td>32.7</td><td>12.0</td><td>4.0</td><td>1.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAR</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.547</td><td>-</td><td>74.9</td><td>32.2</td><td>9.3</td><td>3.4</td><td>1.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>JAX</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.477</td><td>64.2</td><td>78.4</td><td>27.9</td><td>7.5</td><td>2.0</td><td>0.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIN</td><td>7-8</td><td>0.532</td><td>-</td><td>27.7</td><td>11.4</td><td>3.1</td><td>1.1</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>HOU</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.494</td><td>18.8</td><td>43.2</td><td>14.7</td><td>4.1</td><td>1.2</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>SEA</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.438</td><td>-</td><td>63.2</td><td>20.9</td><td>4.3</td><td>1.2</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>IND</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.468</td><td>17.0</td><td>46.8</td><td>14.7</td><td>3.7</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>GB</td><td>7-8</td><td>0.504</td><td>-</td><td>26.6</td><td>10.4</td><td>2.6</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>NO</td><td>7-8</td><td>0.570</td><td>5.9</td><td>9.4</td><td>3.8</td><td>1.3</td><td>0.5</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>CIN</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.447</td><td>-</td><td>19.4</td><td>5.0</td><td>1.2</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>ATL</td><td>7-8</td><td>0.498</td><td>4.4</td><td>8.0</td><td>2.8</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>PIT</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.420</td><td>-</td><td>13.1</td><td>3.4</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>LV</td><td>6-8</td><td>0.467</td><td>0.7</td><td>5.6</td><td>1.5</td><td>0.4</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>DEN</td><td>7-8</td><td>0.409</td><td>0.6</td><td>2.7</td><td>0.7</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>CHI</td><td>6-9</td><td>0.439</td><td>-</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYG</td><td>5-9</td><td>0.213</td><td>-</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAC</td><td>5-10</td><td>0.418</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>TEN</td><td>5-10</td><td>0.399</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYJ</td><td>6-9</td><td>0.311</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>ARI</td><td>3-12</td><td>0.274</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>WSH</td><td>4-11</td><td>0.274</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NE</td><td>4-11</td><td>0.257</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CAR</td><td>2-13</td><td>0.231</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)<br />
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)<br />
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday) <br />
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final) <br />
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final) <br />
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday) <br />
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)<br />
First to clinch a division: San Francisco (Week 15, Sunday)<br />
<br />
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)<br />
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-1-final.html">Week 1, Final</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2.html">Week 2, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2_18.html">Week 2, Sunday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2-final.html">Week 2, Final</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3.html">Week 3, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3_25.html">Week 3, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3-final.html">Week 3, Final</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4-final.html">Week 4, Final</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5.html">Week 5, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5_9.html">Week 5, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5-final.html">Week 5, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6.html">Week 6, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6_16.html">Week 6, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6-final.html">Week 6, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7.html">Week 7, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7_23.html">Week 7, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7-final.html">Week 7, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8.html">Week 8, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8_30.html">Week 8, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8-final.html">Week 8, Final</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9.html">Week 9, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9_6.html">Week 9, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9-final.html">Week 9, Final</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10.html">Week 10, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_13.html">Week 10, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_14.html">Week 10, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11.html">Week 11, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_20.html">Week 11, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_21.html">Week 11, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12.html">Week 12, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_25.html">Week 12, Friday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_27.html">Week 12, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_28.html">Week 12, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13.html">Week 13, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_4.html">Week 13, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_5.html">Week 13, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14.html">Week 14, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_11.html">Week 14, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_01907897717.html">Week 14, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15.html">Week 15, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_17.html">Week 15, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01501030444.html">Week 15, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01094874355.html">Week 15, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16.html">Week 16, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16_24.html">Week 16, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
<br />Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7086769080799703444.post-71605889159276296602023-12-24T10:00:00.013-06:002023-12-25T16:49:13.508-06:00Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 16, SaturdaySan Francisco over Baltimore.<br />
<br />I'm not sure I'm a fan of these Saturday games, but it's a little more allowable on a holiday weekend. Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati to stay alive in the playoff race, and Buffalo eliminated the LA Chargers with a 2-point win.<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>TEAM</th><th>Record</th><th>Strength</th><th>Div</th><th>Plyff</th><th>WC</th><th>Qtr</th><th>Semi</th><th>Champ</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>SF</td><td>11-3</td><td>0.791</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>97.5</td><td>72.4</td><td><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">47.9</span></b></td><td>28.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>BAL</td><td>11-3</td><td>0.771</td><td>91.0</td><td>++</td><td>91.8</td><td>62.6</td><td><b><span style="color: red;">39.4</span></b></td><td>21.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>DAL</td><td>10-4</td><td>0.755</td><td>42.6</td><td>++</td><td>74.7</td><td>49.9</td><td>27.0</td><td>14.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIA</td><td>10-4</td><td>0.721</td><td>62.4</td><td>98.9</td><td>68.9</td><td>40.4</td><td>21.1</td><td>10.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>BUF</td><td>9-6</td><td>0.724</td><td>37.6</td><td>79.5</td><td>47.6</td><td>26.4</td><td>14.1</td><td>6.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>KC</td><td>9-5</td><td>0.653</td><td>97.8</td><td>98.9</td><td>60.8</td><td>30.0</td><td>12.7</td><td>5.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>DET</td><td>10-4</td><td>0.586</td><td>92.1</td><td>99.7</td><td>56.6</td><td>23.5</td><td>7.9</td><td>2.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>PHI</td><td>10-4</td><td>0.531</td><td>57.4</td><td>++</td><td>54.7</td><td>19.8</td><td>5.7</td><td>1.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>CLE</td><td>9-5</td><td>0.541</td><td>9.0</td><td>93.8</td><td>44.7</td><td>15.0</td><td>4.8</td><td>1.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAR</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.547</td><td>-</td><td>77.6</td><td>33.4</td><td>9.7</td><td>3.5</td><td>1.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>JAX</td><td>8-6</td><td>0.512</td><td>59.4</td><td>77.9</td><td>32.3</td><td>9.9</td><td>3.0</td><td>0.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIN</td><td>7-7</td><td>0.546</td><td>7.9</td><td>54.5</td><td>23.6</td><td>7.2</td><td>2.5</td><td>0.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>TB</td><td>7-7</td><td>0.512</td><td>68.2</td><td>71.6</td><td>25.4</td><td>8.3</td><td>2.5</td><td>0.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>HOU</td><td>8-6</td><td>0.522</td><td>21.0</td><td>55.5</td><td>22.4</td><td>7.0</td><td>2.2</td><td>0.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>IND</td><td>8-6</td><td>0.502</td><td>19.6</td><td>54.9</td><td>20.2</td><td>6.1</td><td>1.8</td><td>0.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>NO</td><td>7-8</td><td>0.570</td><td>21.5</td><td>24.3</td><td>9.9</td><td>3.7</td><td>1.3</td><td>0.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>GB</td><td>6-8</td><td>0.498</td><td>-</td><td>20.0</td><td>7.6</td><td>1.9</td><td>0.6</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>SEA</td><td>7-7</td><td>0.433</td><td>-</td><td>39.9</td><td>12.8</td><td>2.6</td><td>0.7</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>ATL</td><td>6-8</td><td>0.455</td><td>10.3</td><td>11.8</td><td>3.6</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>CIN</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.447</td><td>-</td><td>11.3</td><td>3.3</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>DEN</td><td>7-7</td><td>0.414</td><td>1.5</td><td>15.9</td><td>4.3</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>PIT</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.420</td><td>-</td><td>10.2</td><td>2.7</td><td>0.6</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>LV</td><td>6-8</td><td>0.467</td><td>0.7</td><td>3.3</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>CHI</td><td>5-9</td><td>0.418</td><td>-</td><td>0.4</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYG</td><td>5-9</td><td>0.214</td><td>-</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAC</td><td>5-10</td><td>0.418</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>TEN</td><td>5-9</td><td>0.406</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYJ</td><td>5-9</td><td>0.301</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>ARI</td><td>3-11</td><td>0.294</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>WSH</td><td>4-10</td><td>0.278</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NE</td><td>3-11</td><td>0.251</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CAR</td><td>2-12</td><td>0.233</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)<br />
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)<br />
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday) <br />
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final) <br />
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final) <br />
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday) <br />
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)<br />
First to clinch a division: San Francisco (Week 15, Sunday)<br />
<br />
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)<br />
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-1-final.html">Week 1, Final</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2.html">Week 2, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2_18.html">Week 2, Sunday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2-final.html">Week 2, Final</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3.html">Week 3, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3_25.html">Week 3, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3-final.html">Week 3, Final</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4-final.html">Week 4, Final</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5.html">Week 5, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5_9.html">Week 5, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5-final.html">Week 5, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6.html">Week 6, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6_16.html">Week 6, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6-final.html">Week 6, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7.html">Week 7, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7_23.html">Week 7, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7-final.html">Week 7, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8.html">Week 8, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8_30.html">Week 8, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8-final.html">Week 8, Final</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9.html">Week 9, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9_6.html">Week 9, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9-final.html">Week 9, Final</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10.html">Week 10, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_13.html">Week 10, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_14.html">Week 10, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11.html">Week 11, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_20.html">Week 11, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_21.html">Week 11, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12.html">Week 12, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_25.html">Week 12, Friday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_27.html">Week 12, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_28.html">Week 12, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13.html">Week 13, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_4.html">Week 13, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_5.html">Week 13, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14.html">Week 14, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_11.html">Week 14, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_01907897717.html">Week 14, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15.html">Week 15, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_17.html">Week 15, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01501030444.html">Week 15, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01094874355.html">Week 15, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-16.html">Week 16, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
<br />Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7086769080799703444.post-87965514977464961122023-12-22T22:00:00.012-06:002023-12-25T16:37:34.215-06:00Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 16, ThursdaySan Francisco over Baltimore.<br />
<br />The LA Rams beat New Orleans on Thursday night, which didn't eliminate or clinch anything, but did move the Rams into a much better position to make the playoffs. That's a rivalry that meant a lot to me years ago when the Rams were in St. Louis and in the same division with New Orleans. They even had a playoff matchup one year.<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>TEAM</th><th>Record</th><th>Strength</th><th>Div</th><th>Plyff</th><th>WC</th><th>Qtr</th><th>Semi</th><th>Champ</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>SF</td><td>11-3</td><td>0.791</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>97.5</td><td>72.4</td><td><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">48.0</span></b></td><td>28.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>BAL</td><td>11-3</td><td>0.771</td><td>92.3</td><td>++</td><td>92.3</td><td>63.9</td><td><b><span style="color: red;">40.5</span></b></td><td>22.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>DAL</td><td>10-4</td><td>0.755</td><td>42.7</td><td>++</td><td>74.8</td><td>49.9</td><td>27.0</td><td>15.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIA</td><td>10-4</td><td>0.721</td><td>68.2</td><td>98.8</td><td>70.5</td><td>42.1</td><td>22.0</td><td>10.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>KC</td><td>9-5</td><td>0.653</td><td>97.7</td><td>98.7</td><td>61.7</td><td>30.5</td><td>13.0</td><td>5.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>BUF</td><td>8-6</td><td>0.719</td><td>31.8</td><td>63.7</td><td>37.8</td><td>20.8</td><td>11.0</td><td>5.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>DET</td><td>10-4</td><td>0.586</td><td>92.1</td><td>99.7</td><td>56.7</td><td>23.5</td><td>7.9</td><td>2.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>PHI</td><td>10-4</td><td>0.531</td><td>57.3</td><td>++</td><td>54.7</td><td>19.9</td><td>5.7</td><td>1.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>CLE</td><td>9-5</td><td>0.541</td><td>7.7</td><td>93.6</td><td>44.3</td><td>14.9</td><td>4.9</td><td>1.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAR</td><td>8-7</td><td>0.547</td><td>-</td><td>76.7</td><td>33.0</td><td>9.6</td><td>3.5</td><td>1.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>JAX</td><td>8-6</td><td>0.512</td><td>59.4</td><td>74.5</td><td>31.5</td><td>9.7</td><td>3.0</td><td>0.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIN</td><td>7-7</td><td>0.546</td><td>7.9</td><td>54.0</td><td>23.4</td><td>7.2</td><td>2.5</td><td>0.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>TB</td><td>7-7</td><td>0.512</td><td>68.2</td><td>71.4</td><td>25.4</td><td>8.3</td><td>2.5</td><td>0.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>HOU</td><td>8-6</td><td>0.522</td><td>21.0</td><td>54.6</td><td>22.3</td><td>7.0</td><td>2.3</td><td>0.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>IND</td><td>8-6</td><td>0.502</td><td>19.6</td><td>50.4</td><td>18.8</td><td>5.6</td><td>1.7</td><td>0.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>NO</td><td>7-8</td><td>0.570</td><td>21.5</td><td>24.2</td><td>9.8</td><td>3.7</td><td>1.3</td><td>0.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>CIN</td><td>8-6</td><td>0.492</td><td>-</td><td>42.2</td><td>14.4</td><td>4.0</td><td>1.3</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>SEA</td><td>7-7</td><td>0.433</td><td>-</td><td>42.0</td><td>13.5</td><td>2.8</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>GB</td><td>6-8</td><td>0.498</td><td>-</td><td>19.7</td><td>7.5</td><td>1.9</td><td>0.6</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>ATL</td><td>6-8</td><td>0.455</td><td>10.3</td><td>11.7</td><td>3.6</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>DEN</td><td>7-7</td><td>0.414</td><td>1.5</td><td>16.7</td><td>4.5</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>LV</td><td>6-8</td><td>0.467</td><td>0.8</td><td>3.1</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>PIT</td><td>7-7</td><td>0.367</td><td>-</td><td>3.7</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>CHI</td><td>5-9</td><td>0.418</td><td>-</td><td>0.4</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYG</td><td>5-9</td><td>0.214</td><td>-</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAC</td><td>5-9</td><td>0.422</td><td>-</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>TEN</td><td>5-9</td><td>0.406</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYJ</td><td>5-9</td><td>0.301</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>ARI</td><td>3-11</td><td>0.294</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>WSH</td><td>4-10</td><td>0.278</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NE</td><td>3-11</td><td>0.251</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CAR</td><td>2-12</td><td>0.233</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)<br />
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)<br />
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday) <br />
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final) <br />
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final) <br />
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday) <br />
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)<br />
First to clinch a division: San Francisco (Week 15, Sunday)<br />
<br />
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)<br />
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-1-final.html">Week 1, Final</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2.html">Week 2, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2_18.html">Week 2, Sunday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2-final.html">Week 2, Final</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3.html">Week 3, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3_25.html">Week 3, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3-final.html">Week 3, Final</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4-final.html">Week 4, Final</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5.html">Week 5, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5_9.html">Week 5, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5-final.html">Week 5, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6.html">Week 6, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6_16.html">Week 6, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6-final.html">Week 6, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7.html">Week 7, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7_23.html">Week 7, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7-final.html">Week 7, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8.html">Week 8, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8_30.html">Week 8, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8-final.html">Week 8, Final</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9.html">Week 9, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9_6.html">Week 9, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9-final.html">Week 9, Final</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10.html">Week 10, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_13.html">Week 10, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_14.html">Week 10, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11.html">Week 11, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_20.html">Week 11, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_21.html">Week 11, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12.html">Week 12, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_25.html">Week 12, Friday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_27.html">Week 12, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_28.html">Week 12, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13.html">Week 13, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_4.html">Week 13, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_5.html">Week 13, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14.html">Week 14, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_11.html">Week 14, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_01907897717.html">Week 14, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15.html">Week 15, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_17.html">Week 15, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01501030444.html">Week 15, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01094874355.html">Week 15, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
<br />Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7086769080799703444.post-83307301924825148642023-12-19T22:00:00.022-06:002023-12-19T22:00:00.241-06:00Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 15, FinalSan Francisco over Baltimore.<br />
<br />I haven't run the numbers on this, but it feels like we're getting a lot more upsets in night games this year. Seattle needed a win just to get to .500, and they got it over Philadelphia, who was the NFC favorite just a few weeks ago. That kept the NFC East race interesting after Dallas also lost this week. That loss also boosted San Francisco from 73% to 89% to get the #1 seed and the bye week.<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>TEAM</th><th>Record</th><th>Strength</th><th>Div</th><th>Plyff</th><th>WC</th><th>Qtr</th><th>Semi</th><th>Champ</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>SF</td><td>11-3</td><td>0.791</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>97.6</td><td>72.5</td><td><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">48.0</span></b></td><td>28.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>BAL</td><td>11-3</td><td>0.771</td><td>92.3</td><td>++</td><td>92.3</td><td>63.9</td><td><b><span style="color: red;">40.5</span></b></td><td>22.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>DAL</td><td>10-4</td><td>0.755</td><td>42.7</td><td>++</td><td>74.1</td><td>49.4</td><td>26.7</td><td>14.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIA</td><td>10-4</td><td>0.721</td><td>68.2</td><td>98.8</td><td>70.5</td><td>42.1</td><td>22.0</td><td>10.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>KC</td><td>9-5</td><td>0.653</td><td>97.7</td><td>98.7</td><td>61.7</td><td>30.5</td><td>13.0</td><td>5.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>BUF</td><td>8-6</td><td>0.718</td><td>31.8</td><td>63.7</td><td>37.8</td><td>20.8</td><td>11.0</td><td>5.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>DET</td><td>10-4</td><td>0.586</td><td>92.1</td><td>99.9</td><td>57.6</td><td>23.8</td><td>8.0</td><td>3.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>PHI</td><td>10-4</td><td>0.531</td><td>57.3</td><td>++</td><td>54.2</td><td>19.7</td><td>5.7</td><td>1.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>CLE</td><td>9-5</td><td>0.541</td><td>7.7</td><td>93.5</td><td>44.3</td><td>14.9</td><td>4.9</td><td>1.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>NO</td><td>7-7</td><td>0.587</td><td>37.4</td><td>51.8</td><td>22.2</td><td>8.3</td><td>3.1</td><td>1.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIN</td><td>7-7</td><td>0.546</td><td>7.9</td><td>56.8</td><td>24.8</td><td>7.6</td><td>2.6</td><td>0.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>JAX</td><td>8-6</td><td>0.512</td><td>59.4</td><td>74.6</td><td>31.5</td><td>9.7</td><td>3.0</td><td>0.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>TB</td><td>7-7</td><td>0.512</td><td>55.0</td><td>69.6</td><td>25.2</td><td>7.9</td><td>2.4</td><td>0.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>HOU</td><td>8-6</td><td>0.522</td><td>21.0</td><td>54.6</td><td>22.3</td><td>7.0</td><td>2.3</td><td>0.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAR</td><td>7-7</td><td>0.532</td><td>-</td><td>41.5</td><td>16.9</td><td>4.7</td><td>1.7</td><td>0.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>IND</td><td>8-6</td><td>0.502</td><td>19.6</td><td>50.4</td><td>18.8</td><td>5.6</td><td>1.7</td><td>0.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>CIN</td><td>8-6</td><td>0.492</td><td>-</td><td>42.2</td><td>14.4</td><td>4.1</td><td>1.3</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>SEA</td><td>7-7</td><td>0.433</td><td>-</td><td>48.6</td><td>15.9</td><td>3.3</td><td>0.9</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>GB</td><td>6-8</td><td>0.498</td><td>-</td><td>21.6</td><td>8.2</td><td>2.0</td><td>0.7</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>DEN</td><td>7-7</td><td>0.414</td><td>1.5</td><td>16.7</td><td>4.5</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>ATL</td><td>6-8</td><td>0.455</td><td>7.6</td><td>9.5</td><td>2.9</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>LV</td><td>6-8</td><td>0.467</td><td>0.8</td><td>3.1</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>PIT</td><td>7-7</td><td>0.367</td><td>-</td><td>3.7</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>CHI</td><td>5-9</td><td>0.418</td><td>-</td><td>0.6</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYG</td><td>5-9</td><td>0.214</td><td>-</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAC</td><td>5-9</td><td>0.422</td><td>-</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>TEN</td><td>5-9</td><td>0.406</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYJ</td><td>5-9</td><td>0.301</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>ARI</td><td>3-11</td><td>0.294</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>WSH</td><td>4-10</td><td>0.278</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NE</td><td>3-11</td><td>0.251</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CAR</td><td>2-12</td><td>0.233</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)<br />
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)<br />
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday) <br />
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final) <br />
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final) <br />
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday) <br />
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)<br />
First to clinch a division: San Francisco (Week 15, Sunday)<br />
<br />
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)<br />
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-1-final.html">Week 1, Final</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2.html">Week 2, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2_18.html">Week 2, Sunday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2-final.html">Week 2, Final</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3.html">Week 3, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3_25.html">Week 3, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3-final.html">Week 3, Final</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4-final.html">Week 4, Final</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5.html">Week 5, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5_9.html">Week 5, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5-final.html">Week 5, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6.html">Week 6, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6_16.html">Week 6, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6-final.html">Week 6, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7.html">Week 7, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7_23.html">Week 7, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7-final.html">Week 7, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8.html">Week 8, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8_30.html">Week 8, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8-final.html">Week 8, Final</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9.html">Week 9, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9_6.html">Week 9, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9-final.html">Week 9, Final</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10.html">Week 10, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_13.html">Week 10, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_14.html">Week 10, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11.html">Week 11, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_20.html">Week 11, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_21.html">Week 11, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12.html">Week 12, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_25.html">Week 12, Friday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_27.html">Week 12, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_28.html">Week 12, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13.html">Week 13, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_4.html">Week 13, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_5.html">Week 13, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14.html">Week 14, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_11.html">Week 14, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_01907897717.html">Week 14, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15.html">Week 15, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_17.html">Week 15, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_01501030444.html">Week 15, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
<br />Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7086769080799703444.post-60401446121015524672023-12-18T22:00:00.034-06:002023-12-19T08:55:25.453-06:00Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 15, SundaySan Francisco over Baltimore.<br />
<br />Now some stuff is starting to happen. We had 3 teams clinch playoff spots, our first division winner declared, 4 playoff eliminations, and 6 division eliminations, all from just 11 games on Sunday. While Baltimore is still on top of the AFC, they looked pretty bad for at least the first half on Sunday night. Luckily for them Jacksonville was worse and for even longer, so they wound up winning the game by a respectable-looking 23-7. Speaking of Sunday night...<br /><br />
<b>
Belichick Watch!</b><br /><i>
Bill Belichick now has 163 career losses with 3 games to play. The record is 165, so it's definitely something he could break. Assuming no ties and no quitting/firing, here's his likelihood of finishing the season at each record.</i><br /><br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>Record</th><th>Pct</th><th>Result</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>0-3</td><td>33.76</td><td>Broken!</td></tr>
<tr><td>1-2</td><td>46.64</td><td>an unsatisfying tie</td></tr>
<tr><td>2-1</td><td>17.97</td><td rowspan="2">Maybe next year</td></tr>
<tr><td>3-0</td><td>1.63</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />New England was so bad they flexed their game against Kansas City out of the Sunday night slot. They lost again, and he's now at a 33.76% chance of breaking the record, up from 26.51%, and also up to 46.64% to tie it, slightly up from 43.90%.
<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>TEAM</th><th>Record</th><th>Strength</th><th>Div</th><th>Plyff</th><th>WC</th><th>Qtr</th><th>Semi</th><th>Champ</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>SF</td><td>11-3</td><td>0.791</td><td>++</td><td>++</td><td>93.9</td><td>68.3</td><td><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">45.7</span></b></td><td>27.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>BAL</td><td>11-3</td><td>0.771</td><td>92.3</td><td>++</td><td>92.3</td><td>63.9</td><td><b><span style="color: red;">40.5</span></b></td><td>22.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>DAL</td><td>10-4</td><td>0.755</td><td>26.8</td><td>++</td><td>73.6</td><td>48.0</td><td>26.8</td><td>14.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIA</td><td>10-4</td><td>0.721</td><td>68.2</td><td>98.8</td><td>70.5</td><td>42.1</td><td>22.0</td><td>10.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>KC</td><td>9-5</td><td>0.653</td><td>97.7</td><td>98.7</td><td>61.7</td><td>30.5</td><td>13.0</td><td>5.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>BUF</td><td>8-6</td><td>0.718</td><td>31.8</td><td>63.7</td><td>37.8</td><td>20.8</td><td>11.0</td><td>5.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>DET</td><td>10-4</td><td>0.586</td><td>92.1</td><td>100.0</td><td>56.4</td><td>22.6</td><td>7.9</td><td>2.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>PHI</td><td>10-3</td><td>0.536</td><td>73.2</td><td>++</td><td>62.8</td><td>24.6</td><td>7.2</td><td>2.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>CLE</td><td>9-5</td><td>0.541</td><td>7.7</td><td>93.5</td><td>44.3</td><td>14.9</td><td>4.9</td><td>1.6</td></tr>
<tr><td>NO</td><td>7-7</td><td>0.587</td><td>37.4</td><td>55.9</td><td>22.5</td><td>8.7</td><td>3.4</td><td>1.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIN</td><td>7-7</td><td>0.546</td><td>7.9</td><td>62.2</td><td>26.9</td><td>8.8</td><td>3.0</td><td>1.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>JAX</td><td>8-6</td><td>0.512</td><td>59.4</td><td>74.6</td><td>31.5</td><td>9.7</td><td>3.0</td><td>0.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>TB</td><td>7-7</td><td>0.512</td><td>55.0</td><td>74.5</td><td>25.0</td><td>8.2</td><td>2.6</td><td>0.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>HOU</td><td>8-6</td><td>0.522</td><td>21.0</td><td>54.6</td><td>22.3</td><td>7.0</td><td>2.3</td><td>0.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAR</td><td>7-7</td><td>0.532</td><td>-</td><td>45.2</td><td>18.1</td><td>5.6</td><td>2.0</td><td>0.6</td></tr>
<tr><td>IND</td><td>8-6</td><td>0.502</td><td>19.6</td><td>50.4</td><td>18.8</td><td>5.6</td><td>1.7</td><td>0.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>CIN</td><td>8-6</td><td>0.492</td><td>-</td><td>42.2</td><td>14.4</td><td>4.0</td><td>1.3</td><td>0.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>GB</td><td>6-8</td><td>0.498</td><td>-</td><td>25.2</td><td>9.5</td><td>2.6</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>SEA</td><td>6-7</td><td>0.429</td><td>-</td><td>25.5</td><td>8.1</td><td>1.7</td><td>0.4</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>ATL</td><td>6-8</td><td>0.455</td><td>7.6</td><td>10.4</td><td>3.0</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>DEN</td><td>7-7</td><td>0.414</td><td>1.5</td><td>16.7</td><td>4.5</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>LV</td><td>6-8</td><td>0.467</td><td>0.8</td><td>3.1</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>PIT</td><td>7-7</td><td>0.367</td><td>-</td><td>3.7</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>CHI</td><td>5-9</td><td>0.418</td><td>-</td><td>0.9</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYG</td><td>5-9</td><td>0.214</td><td>-</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAC</td><td>5-9</td><td>0.422</td><td>-</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>TEN</td><td>5-9</td><td>0.406</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYJ</td><td>5-9</td><td>0.301</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>ARI</td><td>3-11</td><td>0.294</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>WSH</td><td>4-10</td><td>0.278</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NE</td><td>3-11</td><td>0.251</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CAR</td><td>2-12</td><td>0.233</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)<br />
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)<br />
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday) <br />
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final) <br />
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final) <br />
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday) <br />
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)<br />
First to clinch a division: San Francisco (Week 15, Sunday)<br />
<br />
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)<br />
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-1-final.html">Week 1, Final</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2.html">Week 2, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2_18.html">Week 2, Sunday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2-final.html">Week 2, Final</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3.html">Week 3, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3_25.html">Week 3, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3-final.html">Week 3, Final</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4-final.html">Week 4, Final</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5.html">Week 5, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5_9.html">Week 5, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5-final.html">Week 5, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6.html">Week 6, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6_16.html">Week 6, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6-final.html">Week 6, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7.html">Week 7, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7_23.html">Week 7, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7-final.html">Week 7, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8.html">Week 8, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8_30.html">Week 8, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8-final.html">Week 8, Final</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9.html">Week 9, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9_6.html">Week 9, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9-final.html">Week 9, Final</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10.html">Week 10, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_13.html">Week 10, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_14.html">Week 10, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11.html">Week 11, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_20.html">Week 11, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_21.html">Week 11, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12.html">Week 12, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_25.html">Week 12, Friday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_27.html">Week 12, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_28.html">Week 12, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13.html">Week 13, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_4.html">Week 13, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_5.html">Week 13, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14.html">Week 14, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_11.html">Week 14, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_01907897717.html">Week 14, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15.html">Week 15, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15_17.html">Week 15, Saturday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
<br />Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7086769080799703444.post-71413697589724986832023-12-17T10:00:00.003-06:002023-12-17T10:28:32.586-06:00Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 15, SaturdaySan Francisco over Baltimore.<br />
<br />The first post-college Saturday was fairly uneventful, with no new eliminations or clinches out of the 3 games played. Cincinnati upset Minnesota to leave them both in the middle, Indianapolis put one of the final nails in the coffin for Pittsburgh, and Detroit has almost secured a playoff spot (>99%) by beating Denver. If you've noticed the ordering at the top, something slightly interesting did happen. Dallas has fallen below Baltimore in overall Super Bowl odds. I think that's because Dallas will eventually play Detroit, and that game is now more tipped towards Detroit because of their big win, thus slightly lowering their chances of winning NFC East. Baltimore's division chances are also up because they will play Pittsburgh, now weaker than before.<br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>TEAM</th><th>Record</th><th>Strength</th><th>Div</th><th>Plyff</th><th>WC</th><th>Qtr</th><th>Semi</th><th>Champ</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>SF</td><td>10-3</td><td>0.776</td><td>100.0</td><td>++</td><td>90.8</td><td>65.1</td><td><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">40.8</span></b></td><td>25.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>BAL</td><td>10-3</td><td>0.742</td><td>91.2</td><td>99.9</td><td>89.9</td><td>61.3</td><td><b><span style="color: red;">39.1</span></b></td><td>20.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>DAL</td><td>10-3</td><td>0.769</td><td>47.0</td><td>100.0</td><td>80.4</td><td>55.8</td><td>33.1</td><td>20.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIA</td><td>9-4</td><td>0.675</td><td>75.8</td><td>95.6</td><td>65.9</td><td>37.6</td><td>19.2</td><td>8.6</td></tr>
<tr><td>KC</td><td>8-5</td><td>0.634</td><td>95.2</td><td>97.7</td><td>63.3</td><td>32.5</td><td>14.7</td><td>5.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>BUF</td><td>7-6</td><td>0.684</td><td>24.2</td><td>46.3</td><td>27.3</td><td>14.7</td><td>7.8</td><td>3.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>DET</td><td>10-4</td><td>0.586</td><td>90.5</td><td>100.0</td><td>56.9</td><td>21.8</td><td>7.9</td><td>3.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>PHI</td><td>10-3</td><td>0.536</td><td>53.0</td><td>100.0</td><td>63.8</td><td>23.7</td><td>7.2</td><td>2.6</td></tr>
<tr><td>JAX</td><td>8-5</td><td>0.541</td><td>74.9</td><td>88.1</td><td>44.6</td><td>17.0</td><td>6.2</td><td>2.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>CLE</td><td>8-5</td><td>0.534</td><td>8.6</td><td>85.9</td><td>39.2</td><td>14.7</td><td>5.4</td><td>1.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIN</td><td>7-7</td><td>0.546</td><td>7.7</td><td>59.9</td><td>25.3</td><td>8.4</td><td>2.9</td><td>1.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>NO</td><td>6-7</td><td>0.549</td><td>33.6</td><td>44.9</td><td>17.1</td><td>6.0</td><td>2.1</td><td>0.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>IND</td><td>8-6</td><td>0.502</td><td>14.9</td><td>58.8</td><td>23.1</td><td>7.6</td><td>2.7</td><td>0.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>GB</td><td>6-7</td><td>0.527</td><td>1.8</td><td>48.9</td><td>18.9</td><td>6.0</td><td>2.0</td><td>0.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>HOU</td><td>7-6</td><td>0.516</td><td>10.1</td><td>43.8</td><td>18.1</td><td>6.2</td><td>2.2</td><td>0.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>CIN</td><td>8-6</td><td>0.492</td><td>0.1</td><td>48.9</td><td>18.2</td><td>5.8</td><td>2.0</td><td>0.6</td></tr>
<tr><td>TB</td><td>6-7</td><td>0.483</td><td>35.4</td><td>47.5</td><td>15.6</td><td>4.6</td><td>1.4</td><td>0.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAR</td><td>6-7</td><td>0.517</td><td>0.0</td><td>31.9</td><td>11.2</td><td>3.5</td><td>1.2</td><td>0.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>ATL</td><td>6-7</td><td>0.461</td><td>31.0</td><td>38.0</td><td>11.8</td><td>3.3</td><td>0.9</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>SEA</td><td>6-7</td><td>0.429</td><td>-</td><td>24.0</td><td>6.9</td><td>1.5</td><td>0.4</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>DEN</td><td>7-7</td><td>0.414</td><td>3.3</td><td>21.1</td><td>6.4</td><td>1.6</td><td>0.5</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>LV</td><td>6-8</td><td>0.467</td><td>1.5</td><td>5.3</td><td>1.9</td><td>0.6</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>PIT</td><td>7-7</td><td>0.366</td><td>0.1</td><td>7.8</td><td>2.0</td><td>0.4</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>CHI</td><td>5-8</td><td>0.425</td><td>-</td><td>3.9</td><td>1.1</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>TEN</td><td>5-8</td><td>0.413</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.5</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYJ</td><td>5-8</td><td>0.367</td><td>-</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYG</td><td>5-8</td><td>0.246</td><td>-</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAC</td><td>5-9</td><td>0.422</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>WSH</td><td>4-9</td><td>0.291</td><td>-</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>ARI</td><td>3-10</td><td>0.312</td><td>-</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>NE</td><td>3-10</td><td>0.268</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CAR</td><td>1-12</td><td>0.244</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)<br />
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)<br />
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday) <br />
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final) <br />
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final) <br />
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday) <br />
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)<br />
<br />
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)<br />
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-1-final.html">Week 1, Final</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2.html">Week 2, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2_18.html">Week 2, Sunday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2-final.html">Week 2, Final</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3.html">Week 3, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3_25.html">Week 3, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3-final.html">Week 3, Final</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4-final.html">Week 4, Final</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5.html">Week 5, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5_9.html">Week 5, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5-final.html">Week 5, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6.html">Week 6, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6_16.html">Week 6, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6-final.html">Week 6, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7.html">Week 7, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7_23.html">Week 7, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7-final.html">Week 7, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8.html">Week 8, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8_30.html">Week 8, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8-final.html">Week 8, Final</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9.html">Week 9, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9_6.html">Week 9, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9-final.html">Week 9, Final</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10.html">Week 10, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_13.html">Week 10, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_14.html">Week 10, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11.html">Week 11, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_20.html">Week 11, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_21.html">Week 11, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12.html">Week 12, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_25.html">Week 12, Friday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_27.html">Week 12, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_28.html">Week 12, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13.html">Week 13, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_4.html">Week 13, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_5.html">Week 13, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14.html">Week 14, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_11.html">Week 14, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_01907897717.html">Week 14, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-15.html">Week 15, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
<br />Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7086769080799703444.post-50576459778521683602023-12-15T22:00:00.003-06:002023-12-17T00:26:18.663-06:00Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 15, ThursdaySan Francisco over Baltimore.<br />
<br />We had quite a game on thursday, as Las Vegas defeated LA 63-21. However, they had a combined 3.2% chance at the playoffs and less than 1% at winning the AFC West. Las Vegas raised their strength number significantly and now has a 1.2% chance at catching Kansas City and Denver for the division. In short, nothing changes at the top. <br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>TEAM</th><th>Record</th><th>Strength</th><th>Div</th><th>Plyff</th><th>WC</th><th>Qtr</th><th>Semi</th><th>Champ</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>SF</td><td>10-3</td><td>0.776</td><td>100.0</td><td>++</td><td>90.7</td><td>65.5</td><td><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">41.1</span></b></td><td>25.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>DAL</td><td>10-3</td><td>0.769</td><td>47.3</td><td>100.0</td><td>80.5</td><td>56.6</td><td>33.7</td><td>20.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>BAL</td><td>10-3</td><td>0.742</td><td>90.3</td><td>99.8</td><td>89.7</td><td>61.3</td><td><b><span style="color: red;">39.1</span></b></td><td>20.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIA</td><td>9-4</td><td>0.675</td><td>75.8</td><td>95.6</td><td>66.2</td><td>37.9</td><td>19.4</td><td>8.6</td></tr>
<tr><td>KC</td><td>8-5</td><td>0.634</td><td>89.6</td><td>97.0</td><td>63.2</td><td>32.4</td><td>14.7</td><td>6.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>BUF</td><td>7-6</td><td>0.684</td><td>24.2</td><td>47.3</td><td>28.0</td><td>15.1</td><td>8.0</td><td>3.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>PHI</td><td>10-3</td><td>0.536</td><td>52.7</td><td>100.0</td><td>63.7</td><td>24.2</td><td>7.3</td><td>2.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>JAX</td><td>8-5</td><td>0.541</td><td>79.8</td><td>90.3</td><td>46.3</td><td>17.7</td><td>6.5</td><td>2.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>DET</td><td>9-4</td><td>0.545</td><td>72.7</td><td>96.8</td><td>48.9</td><td>16.8</td><td>5.5</td><td>2.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>CLE</td><td>8-5</td><td>0.534</td><td>8.9</td><td>86.3</td><td>39.7</td><td>14.8</td><td>5.5</td><td>1.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIN</td><td>7-6</td><td>0.553</td><td>23.8</td><td>76.7</td><td>36.0</td><td>12.4</td><td>4.3</td><td>1.6</td></tr>
<tr><td>NO</td><td>6-7</td><td>0.549</td><td>33.2</td><td>42.3</td><td>16.2</td><td>5.7</td><td>2.1</td><td>0.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>GB</td><td>6-7</td><td>0.527</td><td>3.5</td><td>48.2</td><td>19.8</td><td>6.3</td><td>2.1</td><td>0.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>HOU</td><td>7-6</td><td>0.516</td><td>11.2</td><td>47.4</td><td>19.7</td><td>6.8</td><td>2.4</td><td>0.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>TB</td><td>6-7</td><td>0.483</td><td>35.1</td><td>45.0</td><td>15.1</td><td>4.5</td><td>1.3</td><td>0.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>IND</td><td>7-6</td><td>0.472</td><td>8.8</td><td>40.2</td><td>14.6</td><td>4.4</td><td>1.4</td><td>0.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAR</td><td>6-7</td><td>0.517</td><td>0.0</td><td>28.0</td><td>10.1</td><td>3.1</td><td>1.1</td><td>0.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>DEN</td><td>7-6</td><td>0.458</td><td>9.2</td><td>39.8</td><td>14.0</td><td>4.2</td><td>1.3</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>ATL</td><td>6-7</td><td>0.461</td><td>31.7</td><td>38.1</td><td>11.9</td><td>3.4</td><td>0.9</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>CIN</td><td>7-6</td><td>0.486</td><td>0.0</td><td>25.0</td><td>9.1</td><td>2.8</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>PIT</td><td>7-6</td><td>0.404</td><td>0.8</td><td>25.4</td><td>7.4</td><td>1.8</td><td>0.5</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>SEA</td><td>6-7</td><td>0.429</td><td>-</td><td>20.3</td><td>6.1</td><td>1.3</td><td>0.4</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>LV</td><td>6-8</td><td>0.467</td><td>1.2</td><td>4.8</td><td>1.7</td><td>0.5</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>CHI</td><td>5-8</td><td>0.425</td><td>-</td><td>3.5</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>TEN</td><td>5-8</td><td>0.413</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.6</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYJ</td><td>5-8</td><td>0.367</td><td>-</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYG</td><td>5-8</td><td>0.247</td><td>-</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAC</td><td>5-9</td><td>0.422</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>WSH</td><td>4-9</td><td>0.291</td><td>-</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>ARI</td><td>3-10</td><td>0.312</td><td>-</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>NE</td><td>3-10</td><td>0.268</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CAR</td><td>1-12</td><td>0.244</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)<br />
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)<br />
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday) <br />
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final) <br />
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final) <br />
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday) <br />
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)<br />
<br />
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)<br />
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-1-final.html">Week 1, Final</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2.html">Week 2, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2_18.html">Week 2, Sunday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2-final.html">Week 2, Final</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3.html">Week 3, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3_25.html">Week 3, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3-final.html">Week 3, Final</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4-final.html">Week 4, Final</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5.html">Week 5, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5_9.html">Week 5, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5-final.html">Week 5, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6.html">Week 6, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6_16.html">Week 6, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6-final.html">Week 6, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7.html">Week 7, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7_23.html">Week 7, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7-final.html">Week 7, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8.html">Week 8, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8_30.html">Week 8, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8-final.html">Week 8, Final</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9.html">Week 9, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9_6.html">Week 9, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9-final.html">Week 9, Final</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10.html">Week 10, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_13.html">Week 10, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_14.html">Week 10, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11.html">Week 11, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_20.html">Week 11, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_21.html">Week 11, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12.html">Week 12, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_25.html">Week 12, Friday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_27.html">Week 12, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_28.html">Week 12, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13.html">Week 13, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_4.html">Week 13, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_5.html">Week 13, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14.html">Week 14, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_11.html">Week 14, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_01907897717.html">Week 14, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
<br />Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7086769080799703444.post-62454583265473982202023-12-12T22:00:00.034-06:002023-12-12T22:00:00.347-06:00Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 14, FinalSan Francisco over Baltimore.<br />
<br />I used to be able to keep up with sports news, and I would have known exactly why we had 2 Monday night games this week. I think it has something to do with the new TV rights deal but who has time to read about all that? Also, I'm kind of sad we got our first playoff clinch. It's fun to see how many 9s the likelihood can extend to. It at least happened in somewhat of an odd way. 6-6 Green Bay lost to 4-8 New York, which caused San Francisco to clinch, because even if LA catches them for the division at identical 10-7 records, no other possible combination of 10-7 teams kicks them low enough in the tiebreaker. <br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>TEAM</th><th>Record</th><th>Strength</th><th>Div</th><th>Plyff</th><th>WC</th><th>Qtr</th><th>Semi</th><th>Champ</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>SF</td><td>10-3</td><td>0.776</td><td>100.0</td><td>++</td><td>90.7</td><td>65.4</td><td><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">41.1</span></b></td><td>25.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>DAL</td><td>10-3</td><td>0.769</td><td>47.4</td><td>100.0</td><td>80.5</td><td>56.6</td><td>33.6</td><td>20.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>BAL</td><td>10-3</td><td>0.742</td><td>90.3</td><td>99.8</td><td>89.8</td><td>61.4</td><td><b><span style="color: red;">39.2</span></b></td><td>20.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIA</td><td>9-4</td><td>0.675</td><td>77.0</td><td>95.5</td><td>66.4</td><td>38.1</td><td>19.4</td><td>8.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>KC</td><td>8-5</td><td>0.634</td><td>90.0</td><td>97.3</td><td>63.7</td><td>32.7</td><td>14.9</td><td>6.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>BUF</td><td>7-6</td><td>0.684</td><td>23.0</td><td>44.2</td><td>26.2</td><td>14.2</td><td>7.5</td><td>3.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>PHI</td><td>10-3</td><td>0.536</td><td>52.6</td><td>100.0</td><td>63.7</td><td>24.2</td><td>7.4</td><td>2.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>JAX</td><td>8-5</td><td>0.541</td><td>78.8</td><td>90.1</td><td>46.2</td><td>17.7</td><td>6.5</td><td>2.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>DET</td><td>9-4</td><td>0.545</td><td>72.7</td><td>96.8</td><td>48.9</td><td>16.8</td><td>5.6</td><td>2.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>CLE</td><td>8-5</td><td>0.534</td><td>8.9</td><td>86.3</td><td>39.7</td><td>14.8</td><td>5.5</td><td>1.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIN</td><td>7-6</td><td>0.553</td><td>23.8</td><td>76.7</td><td>36.0</td><td>12.4</td><td>4.3</td><td>1.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>NO</td><td>6-7</td><td>0.549</td><td>33.2</td><td>42.3</td><td>16.2</td><td>5.7</td><td>2.1</td><td>0.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>GB</td><td>6-7</td><td>0.527</td><td>3.5</td><td>48.3</td><td>19.8</td><td>6.3</td><td>2.1</td><td>0.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>HOU</td><td>7-6</td><td>0.516</td><td>11.1</td><td>47.5</td><td>19.7</td><td>6.8</td><td>2.4</td><td>0.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>TB</td><td>6-7</td><td>0.483</td><td>35.1</td><td>45.0</td><td>15.1</td><td>4.5</td><td>1.3</td><td>0.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>IND</td><td>7-6</td><td>0.472</td><td>9.9</td><td>44.4</td><td>16.2</td><td>4.9</td><td>1.6</td><td>0.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAR</td><td>6-7</td><td>0.517</td><td>0.0</td><td>28.1</td><td>10.1</td><td>3.1</td><td>1.1</td><td>0.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>DEN</td><td>7-6</td><td>0.458</td><td>9.1</td><td>40.8</td><td>14.4</td><td>4.3</td><td>1.3</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>ATL</td><td>6-7</td><td>0.461</td><td>31.7</td><td>38.1</td><td>11.9</td><td>3.4</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>CIN</td><td>7-6</td><td>0.486</td><td>0.0</td><td>24.9</td><td>9.1</td><td>2.8</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>PIT</td><td>7-6</td><td>0.404</td><td>0.8</td><td>24.9</td><td>7.3</td><td>1.8</td><td>0.5</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>SEA</td><td>6-7</td><td>0.429</td><td>-</td><td>20.3</td><td>6.1</td><td>1.3</td><td>0.4</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAC</td><td>5-8</td><td>0.500</td><td>0.6</td><td>2.3</td><td>0.9</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>CHI</td><td>5-8</td><td>0.425</td><td>-</td><td>3.5</td><td>0.9</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>TEN</td><td>5-8</td><td>0.413</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.6</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>LV</td><td>5-8</td><td>0.366</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.9</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYJ</td><td>5-8</td><td>0.367</td><td>-</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYG</td><td>5-8</td><td>0.247</td><td>-</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>WSH</td><td>4-9</td><td>0.292</td><td>-</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>ARI</td><td>3-10</td><td>0.312</td><td>-</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NE</td><td>3-10</td><td>0.268</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CAR</td><td>1-12</td><td>0.244</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)<br />
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)<br />
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday) <br />
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final) <br />
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final) <br />
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday) <br />
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)<br />
<br />
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)<br />
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-1-final.html">Week 1, Final</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2.html">Week 2, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2_18.html">Week 2, Sunday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2-final.html">Week 2, Final</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3.html">Week 3, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3_25.html">Week 3, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3-final.html">Week 3, Final</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4-final.html">Week 4, Final</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5.html">Week 5, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5_9.html">Week 5, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5-final.html">Week 5, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6.html">Week 6, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6_16.html">Week 6, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6-final.html">Week 6, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7.html">Week 7, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7_23.html">Week 7, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7-final.html">Week 7, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8.html">Week 8, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8_30.html">Week 8, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8-final.html">Week 8, Final</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9.html">Week 9, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9_6.html">Week 9, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9-final.html">Week 9, Final</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10.html">Week 10, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_13.html">Week 10, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_14.html">Week 10, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11.html">Week 11, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_20.html">Week 11, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_21.html">Week 11, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12.html">Week 12, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_25.html">Week 12, Friday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_27.html">Week 12, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_28.html">Week 12, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13.html">Week 13, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_4.html">Week 13, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_5.html">Week 13, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14.html">Week 14, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14_11.html">Week 14, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
<br />Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7086769080799703444.post-68443064273548921452023-12-11T22:00:00.005-06:002023-12-12T21:23:32.645-06:00Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 14, SundaySan Francisco over Baltimore.<br />
<br />The projection stayed the same, but there was a lot of jockeying in the middle of the playoff pack. Dallas beat Philadelphia to tie them for the division, with Dallas currently winning the tiebreaker for divisional record (4-1 to 3-1). Buffalo beat Kansas City, which won't knock them out of the playoffs (still 97% likely) but may knock them out of a bye. KC previously had a 22% chance of being the #1 seed, and is now down to 8%. I should really add tracking for the frequency of all seeds, but for now I only specifically track #1 in each conference. On a fun statistical note, San Francisco hasn't quite clinched a playoff spot, but is up to 6 9s, 99.9999%.<br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>TEAM</th><th>Record</th><th>Strength</th><th>Div</th><th>Plyff</th><th>WC</th><th>Qtr</th><th>Semi</th><th>Champ</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>SF</td><td>10-3</td><td>0.776</td><td>100.0</td><td>100.0</td><td>90.5</td><td>65.2</td><td><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">41.0</span></b></td><td>25.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>DAL</td><td>10-3</td><td>0.769</td><td>47.4</td><td>100.0</td><td>80.3</td><td>56.5</td><td>33.6</td><td>20.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>BAL</td><td>10-3</td><td>0.741</td><td>90.3</td><td>99.8</td><td>87.7</td><td>60.1</td><td><b><span style="color: red;">38.2</span></b></td><td>20.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIA</td><td>9-3</td><td>0.674</td><td>88.6</td><td>98.7</td><td>74.2</td><td>43.9</td><td>22.2</td><td>9.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>KC</td><td>8-5</td><td>0.634</td><td>90.0</td><td>97.2</td><td>62.0</td><td>31.1</td><td>14.3</td><td>5.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>BUF</td><td>7-6</td><td>0.684</td><td>11.4</td><td>41.5</td><td>23.8</td><td>12.4</td><td>6.7</td><td>3.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>PHI</td><td>10-3</td><td>0.536</td><td>52.6</td><td>100.0</td><td>63.4</td><td>24.0</td><td>7.3</td><td>2.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>DET</td><td>9-4</td><td>0.545</td><td>67.1</td><td>95.7</td><td>47.6</td><td>16.4</td><td>5.4</td><td>2.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>JAX</td><td>8-5</td><td>0.541</td><td>78.9</td><td>90.1</td><td>45.1</td><td>17.0</td><td>6.3</td><td>2.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>CLE</td><td>8-5</td><td>0.534</td><td>8.9</td><td>85.9</td><td>39.5</td><td>14.6</td><td>5.4</td><td>1.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIN</td><td>7-6</td><td>0.553</td><td>22.3</td><td>74.7</td><td>34.4</td><td>11.8</td><td>4.2</td><td>1.6</td></tr>
<tr><td>GB</td><td>6-6</td><td>0.531</td><td>10.5</td><td>70.6</td><td>30.0</td><td>9.7</td><td>3.3</td><td>1.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>HOU</td><td>7-6</td><td>0.516</td><td>11.2</td><td>48.2</td><td>20.0</td><td>6.9</td><td>2.5</td><td>0.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>NO</td><td>6-7</td><td>0.549</td><td>33.3</td><td>39.3</td><td>15.1</td><td>5.4</td><td>1.9</td><td>0.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>IND</td><td>7-6</td><td>0.472</td><td>9.8</td><td>43.4</td><td>15.7</td><td>4.7</td><td>1.5</td><td>0.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>TB</td><td>6-7</td><td>0.483</td><td>35.0</td><td>42.7</td><td>14.3</td><td>4.3</td><td>1.3</td><td>0.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>DEN</td><td>7-6</td><td>0.459</td><td>9.1</td><td>41.4</td><td>14.5</td><td>4.3</td><td>1.3</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAR</td><td>6-7</td><td>0.517</td><td>0.0</td><td>21.8</td><td>7.6</td><td>2.4</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>CIN</td><td>7-6</td><td>0.486</td><td>0.0</td><td>25.5</td><td>9.3</td><td>2.9</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>ATL</td><td>6-7</td><td>0.461</td><td>31.7</td><td>36.6</td><td>11.5</td><td>3.3</td><td>0.9</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>PIT</td><td>7-6</td><td>0.404</td><td>0.8</td><td>24.5</td><td>7.1</td><td>1.8</td><td>0.5</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>SEA</td><td>6-7</td><td>0.429</td><td>-</td><td>15.5</td><td>4.6</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAC</td><td>5-8</td><td>0.500</td><td>0.6</td><td>2.3</td><td>0.9</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>CHI</td><td>5-8</td><td>0.425</td><td>-</td><td>2.8</td><td>0.7</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>LV</td><td>5-8</td><td>0.366</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.9</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYJ</td><td>5-8</td><td>0.367</td><td>-</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>TEN</td><td>4-8</td><td>0.408</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYG</td><td>4-8</td><td>0.248</td><td>-</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>WSH</td><td>4-9</td><td>0.292</td><td>-</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>ARI</td><td>3-10</td><td>0.312</td><td>-</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NE</td><td>3-10</td><td>0.268</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CAR</td><td>1-12</td><td>0.244</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)<br />
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)<br />
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday) <br />
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final) <br />
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final) <br />
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday) <br />
<br />
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)<br />
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-1-final.html">Week 1, Final</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2.html">Week 2, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2_18.html">Week 2, Sunday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2-final.html">Week 2, Final</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3.html">Week 3, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3_25.html">Week 3, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3-final.html">Week 3, Final</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4-final.html">Week 4, Final</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5.html">Week 5, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5_9.html">Week 5, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5-final.html">Week 5, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6.html">Week 6, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6_16.html">Week 6, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6-final.html">Week 6, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7.html">Week 7, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7_23.html">Week 7, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7-final.html">Week 7, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8.html">Week 8, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8_30.html">Week 8, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8-final.html">Week 8, Final</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9.html">Week 9, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9_6.html">Week 9, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9-final.html">Week 9, Final</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10.html">Week 10, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_13.html">Week 10, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_14.html">Week 10, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11.html">Week 11, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_20.html">Week 11, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_21.html">Week 11, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12.html">Week 12, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_25.html">Week 12, Friday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_27.html">Week 12, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_28.html">Week 12, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13.html">Week 13, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_4.html">Week 13, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_5.html">Week 13, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-14.html">Week 14, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
<br />Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7086769080799703444.post-89110134161352516222023-12-10T22:00:00.006-06:002023-12-12T21:11:51.370-06:00NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 15<u>The Errors</u>:<br />
None!<br /><br />
<u>The Top</u>:<br />
The highest ranking that changed was #45 Coastal Carolina, swapping places with #46 Miami, as we only had one game this week, Army over Navy.<br />
<br />
<u>The Home Team</u>:<br />
As mentioned, no movement up around Missouri's section of the rankings.<br />
<br />
<u>The Bottom</u>:<br />
#129 Louisiana Monroe and #130 Nevada swapped places, but Kent State holds strong at the end of the line.<br />
<br />
<u>Winless and Lossless</u>:<br />
Neither Army nor Navy were on this list, so we still end the season with 4 undefeated teams and no winless teams. <br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr><td>1</td><td>Washington</td><td>13-0</td></tr>
<tr><td>2</td><td>Michigan</td><td>13-0</td></tr>
<tr><td>3</td><td>Florida State</td><td>13-0</td></tr>
<tr><td>4</td><td>Alabama</td><td>12-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>5</td><td>Texas</td><td>12-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>6</td><td>Georgia</td><td>12-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>7</td><td>Liberty</td><td>13-0</td></tr>
<tr><td>8</td><td>Ohio State</td><td>11-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>9</td><td>Oregon</td><td>11-2</td></tr>
<tr><td>10</td><td>James Madison</td><td>11-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>11</td><td>Troy</td><td>11-2</td></tr>
<tr><td>12</td><td>Tulane</td><td>11-2</td></tr>
<tr><td>13</td><td>Oklahoma</td><td>10-2</td></tr>
<tr><td>14</td><td>Missouri</td><td>10-2</td></tr>
<tr><td>15</td><td>Penn State</td><td>10-2</td></tr>
<tr><td>16</td><td>Ole Miss</td><td>10-2</td></tr>
<tr><td>17</td><td>Toledo</td><td>11-2</td></tr>
<tr><td>18</td><td>SMU</td><td>11-2</td></tr>
<tr><td>19</td><td>Iowa</td><td>10-3</td></tr>
<tr><td>20</td><td>Louisville</td><td>10-3</td></tr>
<tr><td>21</td><td>Miami (OH)</td><td>11-2</td></tr>
<tr><td>22</td><td>LSU</td><td>9-3</td></tr>
<tr><td>23</td><td>NC State</td><td>9-3</td></tr>
<tr><td>24</td><td>Oklahoma State</td><td>9-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>25</td><td>Notre Dame</td><td>9-3</td></tr>
<tr><td>26</td><td>Arizona</td><td>9-3</td></tr>
<tr><td>27</td><td>Memphis</td><td>9-3</td></tr>
<tr><td>28</td><td>New Mexico State</td><td>10-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>29</td><td>UNLV</td><td>9-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>30</td><td>Kansas State</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>31</td><td>Clemson</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>32</td><td>Oregon State</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>33</td><td>Boise State</td><td>8-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>34</td><td>Utah</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>35</td><td>Tennessee</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>36</td><td>Wyoming</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>37</td><td>North Carolina</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>38</td><td>Kansas</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>39</td><td>Appalachian State</td><td>8-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>40</td><td>Ohio</td><td>9-3</td></tr>
<tr><td>41</td><td>West Virginia</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>42</td><td>Air Force</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>43</td><td>Iowa State</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>44</td><td>Duke</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>45</td><td>Coastal Carolina</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>46</td><td>Miami</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>47</td><td>UT San Antonio</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>48</td><td>Fresno State</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>49</td><td>USC</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>50</td><td>Jacksonville State</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>51</td><td>San José State</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>52</td><td>UCLA</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>53</td><td>Texas A&M</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>54</td><td>Northwestern</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>55</td><td>Kentucky</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>56</td><td>Bowling Green</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>57</td><td>Maryland</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>58</td><td>Wisconsin</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>59</td><td>Western Kentucky</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>60</td><td>Georgia Tech</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>61</td><td>Texas State</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>62</td><td>Texas Tech</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>63</td><td>California</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>64</td><td>Marshall</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>65</td><td>Auburn</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>66</td><td>Georgia State</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>67</td><td>UCF</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>68</td><td>Rutgers</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>69</td><td>Virginia Tech</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>70</td><td>Boston College</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>71</td><td>Syracuse</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>72</td><td>Old Dominion</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>73</td><td>South Alabama</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>74</td><td>Army</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>75</td><td>Utah State</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>76</td><td>Arkansas State</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>77</td><td>Georgia Southern</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>78</td><td>South Carolina</td><td>5-7</td></tr>
<tr><td>79</td><td>South Florida</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>80</td><td>TCU</td><td>5-7</td></tr>
<tr><td>81</td><td>Minnesota</td><td>5-7</td></tr>
<tr><td>82</td><td>Rice</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>83</td><td>BYU</td><td>5-7</td></tr>
<tr><td>84</td><td>Illinois</td><td>5-7</td></tr>
<tr><td>85</td><td>Louisiana</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>86</td><td>Mississippi State</td><td>5-7</td></tr>
<tr><td>87</td><td>Northern Illinois</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>88</td><td>Florida</td><td>5-7</td></tr>
<tr><td>89</td><td>Washington State</td><td>5-7</td></tr>
<tr><td>90</td><td>Nebraska</td><td>5-7</td></tr>
<tr><td>91</td><td>Eastern Michigan</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>92</td><td>Hawai'i</td><td>5-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>93</td><td>Michigan State</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>94</td><td>Colorado State</td><td>5-7</td></tr>
<tr><td>95</td><td>Central Michigan</td><td>5-7</td></tr>
<tr><td>96</td><td>North Texas</td><td>5-7</td></tr>
<tr><td>97</td><td>Navy</td><td>5-7</td></tr>
<tr><td>98</td><td>Purdue</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>99</td><td>Wake Forest</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>100</td><td>Colorado</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>101</td><td>Arkansas</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>102</td><td>New Mexico</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>103</td><td>Western Michigan</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>104</td><td>San Diego State</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>105</td><td>Houston</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>106</td><td>Virginia</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>107</td><td>Arizona State</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>108</td><td>Stanford</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>109</td><td>Ball State</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>110</td><td>Middle Tennessee</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>111</td><td>UAB</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>112</td><td>Florida Atlantic</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>113</td><td>Tulsa</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>114</td><td>Southern Mississippi</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>115</td><td>UMass</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>116</td><td>Pittsburgh</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>117</td><td>Cincinnati</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>118</td><td>Baylor</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>119</td><td>UTEP</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>120</td><td>Florida International</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>121</td><td>Indiana</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>122</td><td>Buffalo</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>123</td><td>Connecticut</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>124</td><td>Charlotte</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>125</td><td>Vanderbilt</td><td>2-10</td></tr>
<tr><td>126</td><td>Temple</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>127</td><td>Sam Houston State</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>128</td><td>Louisiana Tech</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>129</td><td>Louisiana Monroe</td><td>2-10</td></tr>
<tr><td>130</td><td>Nevada</td><td>2-10</td></tr>
<tr><td>131</td><td>East Carolina</td><td>2-10</td></tr>
<tr><td>132</td><td>Akron</td><td>2-10</td></tr>
<tr><td>133</td><td>Kent State</td><td>1-11</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
2023 History and #1s<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-1.html">Week 1</a> Jacksonville State and San Diego State<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-2.html">Week 2</a> Notre Dame<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-3.html">Week 3</a> Notre Dame<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-4.html">Week 4</a> Penn State<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-5.html">Week 5</a> Texas<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-6.html">Week 6</a> Oklahoma<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-7.html">Week 7</a> Michigan<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-8.html">Week 8</a> Michigan<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-9.html">Week 9</a> Ohio State<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-10.html">Week 10</a> Ohio State<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-11.html">Week 11</a> Ohio State<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-12.html">Week 12</a> Georgia<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-13.html">Week 13</a> Washington<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-14.html">Week 14</a> Washington<br />
<br />
Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7086769080799703444.post-22799593448292494382023-12-08T22:00:00.029-06:002023-12-12T15:06:01.469-06:00Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 14, ThursdaySan Francisco over Baltimore.<br />
<br />Pittsburgh is no powerhouse, but New England is truly awful this year, so it was surprising to see Pittsburgh lose at home on Thursday and really tank their playoff chances and boost up Baltimore. That also means we have to update...<br /><b>
Belichick Watch!</b><br /><i>
Bill Belichick now has 162 career losses with 4 games to play. The record is 165, so it's definitely something he could break. Assuming no ties and no quitting/firing, here's his likelihood of finishing the season at each record.</i><br /><br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>Record</th><th>Pct</th><th>Result</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>0-4</td><td>26.51</td><td>Broken!</td></tr>
<tr><td>1-3</td><td>43.90</td><td>an unsatisfying tie</td></tr>
<tr><td>2-2</td><td>24.08</td><td rowspan="3">Maybe next year</td></tr>
<tr><td>3-1</td><td>5.14</td></tr>
<tr><td>4-0</td><td>0.37</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Like I said, Pittsburgh wasn't the strongest of the remaining New England opponents, with only the New York Jets being worse. Still, win is a win, and they just need one more to avoid breaking the record. He's at a 26.51% chance of breaking the record, down from 55.69%, but up to 43.90% to tie it, up from 30.73%.<br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>TEAM</th><th>Record</th><th>Strength</th><th>Div</th><th>Plyff</th><th>WC</th><th>Qtr</th><th>Semi</th><th>Champ</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>SF</td><td>9-3</td><td>0.756</td><td>99.3</td><td>100.0</td><td>84.8</td><td>57.9</td><td><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">36.8</span></b></td><td>22.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>BAL</td><td>9-3</td><td>0.737</td><td>90.4</td><td>99.4</td><td>82.6</td><td>55.0</td><td><b><span style="color: red;">34.8</span></b></td><td>19.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>DAL</td><td>9-3</td><td>0.742</td><td>29.1</td><td>99.9</td><td>77.7</td><td>50.4</td><td>30.1</td><td>17.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIA</td><td>9-3</td><td>0.675</td><td>93.6</td><td>98.8</td><td>73.3</td><td>42.3</td><td>22.0</td><td>10.6</td></tr>
<tr><td>KC</td><td>8-4</td><td>0.638</td><td>95.1</td><td>98.3</td><td>68.1</td><td>35.7</td><td>16.8</td><td>7.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>PHI</td><td>10-2</td><td>0.568</td><td>70.9</td><td>100.0</td><td>74.9</td><td>33.2</td><td>12.0</td><td>4.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>DET</td><td>9-3</td><td>0.569</td><td>86.2</td><td>98.4</td><td>54.2</td><td>20.9</td><td>8.0</td><td>3.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>JAX</td><td>8-4</td><td>0.550</td><td>69.1</td><td>94.4</td><td>49.1</td><td>19.4</td><td>7.4</td><td>2.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>HOU</td><td>7-5</td><td>0.562</td><td>17.8</td><td>76.9</td><td>35.0</td><td>13.9</td><td>5.7</td><td>2.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>BUF</td><td>6-6</td><td>0.675</td><td>6.4</td><td>25.2</td><td>14.0</td><td>7.2</td><td>3.9</td><td>1.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>CLE</td><td>7-5</td><td>0.527</td><td>8.0</td><td>71.7</td><td>30.1</td><td>11.1</td><td>4.1</td><td>1.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>GB</td><td>6-6</td><td>0.531</td><td>5.0</td><td>69.4</td><td>28.2</td><td>10.2</td><td>3.7</td><td>1.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIN</td><td>6-6</td><td>0.543</td><td>8.8</td><td>58.6</td><td>24.9</td><td>9.1</td><td>3.4</td><td>1.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>IND</td><td>7-5</td><td>0.507</td><td>13.1</td><td>67.7</td><td>26.6</td><td>9.3</td><td>3.3</td><td>1.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAR</td><td>6-6</td><td>0.530</td><td>0.7</td><td>35.3</td><td>13.2</td><td>4.8</td><td>1.8</td><td>0.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>ATL</td><td>6-6</td><td>0.469</td><td>60.1</td><td>63.0</td><td>18.6</td><td>5.9</td><td>1.9</td><td>0.6</td></tr>
<tr><td>NO</td><td>5-7</td><td>0.504</td><td>19.2</td><td>25.5</td><td>8.3</td><td>2.9</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>TB</td><td>5-7</td><td>0.474</td><td>20.7</td><td>26.6</td><td>8.0</td><td>2.6</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAC</td><td>5-7</td><td>0.533</td><td>2.3</td><td>11.1</td><td>4.5</td><td>1.6</td><td>0.6</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>SEA</td><td>6-6</td><td>0.451</td><td>0.1</td><td>22.2</td><td>7.0</td><td>2.0</td><td>0.6</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>PIT</td><td>7-6</td><td>0.404</td><td>1.5</td><td>24.4</td><td>6.8</td><td>1.8</td><td>0.5</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>DEN</td><td>6-6</td><td>0.429</td><td>2.2</td><td>18.1</td><td>5.5</td><td>1.5</td><td>0.5</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>CIN</td><td>6-6</td><td>0.446</td><td>0.1</td><td>11.9</td><td>3.8</td><td>1.1</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>LV</td><td>5-7</td><td>0.381</td><td>0.4</td><td>1.8</td><td>0.5</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>CHI</td><td>4-8</td><td>0.398</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>TEN</td><td>4-8</td><td>0.408</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYJ</td><td>4-8</td><td>0.319</td><td>-</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYG</td><td>4-8</td><td>0.248</td><td>-</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>WSH</td><td>4-9</td><td>0.292</td><td>-</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>ARI</td><td>3-10</td><td>0.312</td><td>-</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>CAR</td><td>1-11</td><td>0.280</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NE</td><td>3-10</td><td>0.268</td><td>-</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)<br />
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)<br />
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday) <br />
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final) <br />
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final) <br />
<br />
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)<br />
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-1-final.html">Week 1, Final</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2.html">Week 2, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2_18.html">Week 2, Sunday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2-final.html">Week 2, Final</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3.html">Week 3, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3_25.html">Week 3, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3-final.html">Week 3, Final</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4-final.html">Week 4, Final</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5.html">Week 5, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5_9.html">Week 5, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5-final.html">Week 5, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6.html">Week 6, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6_16.html">Week 6, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6-final.html">Week 6, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7.html">Week 7, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7_23.html">Week 7, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7-final.html">Week 7, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8.html">Week 8, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8_30.html">Week 8, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8-final.html">Week 8, Final</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9.html">Week 9, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9_6.html">Week 9, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9-final.html">Week 9, Final</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10.html">Week 10, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_13.html">Week 10, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_14.html">Week 10, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11.html">Week 11, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_20.html">Week 11, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_21.html">Week 11, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12.html">Week 12, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_25.html">Week 12, Friday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_27.html">Week 12, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_28.html">Week 12, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13.html">Week 13, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_4.html">Week 13, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_5.html">Week 13, Final</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
<br />Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7086769080799703444.post-28576242532336561352023-12-05T22:00:00.019-06:002023-12-12T14:58:39.542-06:00Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 13, FinalSan Francisco over Baltimore.<br />
<br />Jacksonville lost to Cincinnati in overtime on Monday. It would appear I cursed both them and Kansas City by declaring all AFC Division winners could be 9-3.<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>TEAM</th><th>Record</th><th>Strength</th><th>Div</th><th>Plyff</th><th>WC</th><th>Qtr</th><th>Semi</th><th>Champ</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>SF</td><td>9-3</td><td>0.756</td><td>99.3</td><td>100.0</td><td>84.8</td><td>57.9</td><td><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">36.8</span></b></td><td>22.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>BAL</td><td>9-3</td><td>0.737</td><td>88.5</td><td>99.3</td><td>82.6</td><td>55.2</td><td><b><span style="color: red;">35.0</span></b></td><td>19.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>DAL</td><td>9-3</td><td>0.742</td><td>29.1</td><td>99.9</td><td>77.7</td><td>50.4</td><td>30.1</td><td>17.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIA</td><td>9-3</td><td>0.675</td><td>93.6</td><td>98.4</td><td>73.4</td><td>42.5</td><td>22.2</td><td>10.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>KC</td><td>8-4</td><td>0.638</td><td>95.1</td><td>98.1</td><td>68.4</td><td>36.0</td><td>16.9</td><td>7.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>PHI</td><td>10-2</td><td>0.568</td><td>70.9</td><td>100.0</td><td>74.9</td><td>33.2</td><td>12.0</td><td>4.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>DET</td><td>9-3</td><td>0.569</td><td>86.2</td><td>98.4</td><td>54.3</td><td>20.9</td><td>8.0</td><td>3.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>JAX</td><td>8-4</td><td>0.550</td><td>69.2</td><td>93.4</td><td>49.0</td><td>19.4</td><td>7.5</td><td>2.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>HOU</td><td>7-5</td><td>0.562</td><td>17.8</td><td>74.0</td><td>33.9</td><td>13.6</td><td>5.5</td><td>2.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>BUF</td><td>6-6</td><td>0.675</td><td>6.4</td><td>22.2</td><td>12.4</td><td>6.5</td><td>3.5</td><td>1.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>CLE</td><td>7-5</td><td>0.527</td><td>7.3</td><td>69.6</td><td>29.3</td><td>10.8</td><td>4.0</td><td>1.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>GB</td><td>6-6</td><td>0.531</td><td>5.0</td><td>69.4</td><td>28.2</td><td>10.2</td><td>3.7</td><td>1.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIN</td><td>6-6</td><td>0.543</td><td>8.8</td><td>58.7</td><td>24.9</td><td>9.1</td><td>3.4</td><td>1.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>IND</td><td>7-5</td><td>0.507</td><td>13.0</td><td>64.5</td><td>25.6</td><td>8.9</td><td>3.2</td><td>1.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAR</td><td>6-6</td><td>0.530</td><td>0.7</td><td>35.3</td><td>13.2</td><td>4.8</td><td>1.8</td><td>0.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>ATL</td><td>6-6</td><td>0.469</td><td>60.1</td><td>63.1</td><td>18.6</td><td>5.9</td><td>1.9</td><td>0.6</td></tr>
<tr><td>NO</td><td>5-7</td><td>0.504</td><td>19.2</td><td>25.5</td><td>8.3</td><td>2.9</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>TB</td><td>5-7</td><td>0.474</td><td>20.7</td><td>26.6</td><td>8.0</td><td>2.6</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>PIT</td><td>7-5</td><td>0.410</td><td>4.2</td><td>44.1</td><td>13.1</td><td>3.5</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAC</td><td>5-7</td><td>0.533</td><td>2.3</td><td>9.1</td><td>3.8</td><td>1.4</td><td>0.5</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>SEA</td><td>6-6</td><td>0.451</td><td>0.1</td><td>22.1</td><td>6.9</td><td>2.0</td><td>0.6</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>DEN</td><td>6-6</td><td>0.429</td><td>2.2</td><td>15.5</td><td>4.8</td><td>1.3</td><td>0.4</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>CIN</td><td>6-6</td><td>0.446</td><td>0.1</td><td>10.1</td><td>3.2</td><td>0.9</td><td>0.3</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>LV</td><td>5-7</td><td>0.381</td><td>0.4</td><td>1.5</td><td>0.4</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>CHI</td><td>4-8</td><td>0.398</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>TEN</td><td>4-8</td><td>0.408</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYJ</td><td>4-8</td><td>0.319</td><td>-</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYG</td><td>4-8</td><td>0.248</td><td>-</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>WSH</td><td>4-9</td><td>0.291</td><td>-</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>ARI</td><td>3-10</td><td>0.312</td><td>-</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>CAR</td><td>1-11</td><td>0.280</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NE</td><td>2-10</td><td>0.266</td><td>-</td><td>0.0</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)<br />
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)<br />
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday) <br />
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final) <br />
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final) <br />
<br />
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)<br />
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-1-final.html">Week 1, Final</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2.html">Week 2, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2_18.html">Week 2, Sunday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2-final.html">Week 2, Final</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3.html">Week 3, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3_25.html">Week 3, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3-final.html">Week 3, Final</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4-final.html">Week 4, Final</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5.html">Week 5, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5_9.html">Week 5, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5-final.html">Week 5, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6.html">Week 6, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6_16.html">Week 6, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6-final.html">Week 6, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7.html">Week 7, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7_23.html">Week 7, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7-final.html">Week 7, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8.html">Week 8, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8_30.html">Week 8, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8-final.html">Week 8, Final</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9.html">Week 9, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9_6.html">Week 9, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9-final.html">Week 9, Final</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10.html">Week 10, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_13.html">Week 10, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_14.html">Week 10, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11.html">Week 11, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_20.html">Week 11, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_21.html">Week 11, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12.html">Week 12, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_25.html">Week 12, Friday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_27.html">Week 12, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_28.html">Week 12, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13.html">Week 13, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13_4.html">Week 13, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
<br />Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7086769080799703444.post-9467056299307288862023-12-04T22:00:00.034-06:002023-12-12T14:58:31.180-06:00Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 13, SundaySan Francisco over Baltimore.<br />
<br />San Francisco did take back the NFC top spot, also lifting Dallas's division chances by beating Philadelphia in the process. I now show two teams eliminated from the playoffs. Carolina is officially eliminated (according to official sources I mean), but New England does have a fighting chance. However, my usual method of making a fake table of games and forcing certain games to go a certain way still struggled to get them even up to 1%. For example, New England can go 7-10 at best now, so I could have all 8-win teams win out, and all AFC-NFC games won by the NFC teams. Suffice it to say, they would need a ridiculous amount of help to make the playoffs, and possibly some ridiculous scores to get some points tiebreakers set up correctly.<br />
<br /><b>
Belichick Watch!</b><br /><i>
Bill Belichick now has 162 career losses with 5 games to play. The record is 165, so it's definitely something he could break. Assuming no ties and no quitting/firing, here's his likelihood of finishing the season at each record.</i><br /><br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>Record</th><th>Pct</th><th>Result</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>0-5</td><td>17.62</td><td rowspan="2">Broken!</td></tr>
<tr><td>1-4</td><td>38.07</td></tr>
<tr><td>2-3</td><td>30.73</td><td>an unsatisfying tie</td></tr>
<tr><td>3-2</td><td>11.49</td><td rowspan="3">Maybe next year</td></tr>
<tr><td>4-1</td><td>1.97</td></tr>
<tr><td>5-0</td><td>0.12</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
As of last week, New England had 6 games left. The LA Chargers were the 3rd best team by strength, so beating them would have pushed them to much better odds to reach 2-4 and keep Bill out of the record books. As alluded to above, they did not seize that opportunity, and lost 6-0. He now has a 55.69% chance of breaking the record, and a 30.73% chance of tying it.<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0"><thead>
<tr><th>TEAM</th><th>Record</th><th>Strength</th><th>Div</th><th>Plyff</th><th>WC</th><th>Qtr</th><th>Semi</th><th>Champ</th></tr></thead><tbody>
<tr><td>SF</td><td>9-3</td><td>0.756</td><td>99.3</td><td>100.0</td><td>84.8</td><td>57.9</td><td><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">36.8</span></b></td><td>22.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>BAL</td><td>9-3</td><td>0.736</td><td>88.3</td><td>99.2</td><td>81.6</td><td>54.2</td><td><b><span style="color: red;">34.4</span></b></td><td>19.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>DAL</td><td>9-3</td><td>0.741</td><td>29.1</td><td>99.9</td><td>77.7</td><td>50.4</td><td>30.1</td><td>17.8</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIA</td><td>9-3</td><td>0.674</td><td>93.6</td><td>98.4</td><td>71.7</td><td>41.0</td><td>21.5</td><td>10.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>KC</td><td>8-4</td><td>0.638</td><td>95.2</td><td>98.1</td><td>67.2</td><td>35.0</td><td>16.6</td><td>7.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>PHI</td><td>10-2</td><td>0.568</td><td>70.9</td><td>100.0</td><td>74.9</td><td>33.2</td><td>12.0</td><td>4.9</td></tr>
<tr><td>JAX</td><td>8-3</td><td>0.557</td><td>82.3</td><td>97.3</td><td>57.3</td><td>23.9</td><td>9.2</td><td>3.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>DET</td><td>9-3</td><td>0.569</td><td>86.1</td><td>98.4</td><td>54.2</td><td>20.9</td><td>8.0</td><td>3.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>HOU</td><td>7-5</td><td>0.562</td><td>10.3</td><td>74.3</td><td>32.7</td><td>13.2</td><td>5.5</td><td>2.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>BUF</td><td>6-6</td><td>0.675</td><td>6.4</td><td>22.5</td><td>12.5</td><td>6.6</td><td>3.5</td><td>1.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>CLE</td><td>7-5</td><td>0.527</td><td>7.4</td><td>69.5</td><td>28.5</td><td>10.6</td><td>4.0</td><td>1.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>GB</td><td>6-6</td><td>0.531</td><td>5.0</td><td>69.4</td><td>28.2</td><td>10.2</td><td>3.7</td><td>1.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>MIN</td><td>6-6</td><td>0.543</td><td>8.9</td><td>58.9</td><td>25.0</td><td>9.2</td><td>3.4</td><td>1.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>IND</td><td>7-5</td><td>0.507</td><td>7.3</td><td>65.6</td><td>25.1</td><td>8.9</td><td>3.2</td><td>1.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAR</td><td>6-6</td><td>0.530</td><td>0.7</td><td>35.3</td><td>13.2</td><td>4.8</td><td>1.8</td><td>0.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>ATL</td><td>6-6</td><td>0.469</td><td>60.1</td><td>63.1</td><td>18.6</td><td>5.9</td><td>1.9</td><td>0.6</td></tr>
<tr><td>NO</td><td>5-7</td><td>0.504</td><td>19.2</td><td>25.5</td><td>8.3</td><td>2.9</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>TB</td><td>5-7</td><td>0.474</td><td>20.6</td><td>26.5</td><td>8.0</td><td>2.6</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>PIT</td><td>7-5</td><td>0.410</td><td>4.3</td><td>44.3</td><td>12.9</td><td>3.5</td><td>1.0</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>LAC</td><td>5-7</td><td>0.533</td><td>2.3</td><td>9.1</td><td>3.7</td><td>1.4</td><td>0.5</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>SEA</td><td>6-6</td><td>0.451</td><td>0.1</td><td>22.1</td><td>6.9</td><td>2.0</td><td>0.6</td><td>0.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>DEN</td><td>6-6</td><td>0.429</td><td>2.2</td><td>15.3</td><td>4.7</td><td>1.3</td><td>0.4</td><td>0.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>CIN</td><td>5-6</td><td>0.438</td><td>0.0</td><td>4.6</td><td>1.4</td><td>0.4</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>LV</td><td>5-7</td><td>0.381</td><td>0.4</td><td>1.5</td><td>0.4</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>CHI</td><td>4-8</td><td>0.398</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.8</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>TEN</td><td>4-8</td><td>0.408</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYJ</td><td>4-8</td><td>0.319</td><td>-</td><td>0.1</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>NYG</td><td>4-8</td><td>0.248</td><td>-</td><td>0.2</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>WSH</td><td>4-9</td><td>0.292</td><td>-</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>ARI</td><td>3-10</td><td>0.312</td><td>-</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>CAR</td><td>1-11</td><td>0.280</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
<tr><td>NE</td><td>2-10</td><td>0.266</td><td>-</td><td>0.0</td><td>0.0</td><td>-</td><td>-</td><td>-</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)<br />
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)<br />
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday) <br />
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final) <br />
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday) <br />
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final) <br />
<br />
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)<br />
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)<br />
<br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-1-final.html">Week 1, Final</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2.html">Week 2, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Cleveland <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2_18.html">Week 2, Sunday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-2-final.html">Week 2, Final</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3.html">Week 3, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3_25.html">Week 3, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-3-final.html">Week 3, Final</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Miami <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4.html">Week 4, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-4-final.html">Week 4, Final</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5.html">Week 5, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Buffalo <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5_9.html">Week 5, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-5-final.html">Week 5, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6.html">Week 6, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6_16.html">Week 6, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-6-final.html">Week 6, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7.html">Week 7, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7_23.html">Week 7, Sunday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-7-final.html">Week 7, Final</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8.html">Week 8, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Kansas City <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8_30.html">Week 8, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-8-final.html">Week 8, Final</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9.html">Week 9, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Dallas <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9_6.html">Week 9, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-9-final.html">Week 9, Final</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10.html">Week 10, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over Philadelphia <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_13.html">Week 10, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-10_14.html">Week 10, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11.html">Week 11, Thursday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_20.html">Week 11, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-11_21.html">Week 11, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12.html">Week 12, Thursday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_25.html">Week 12, Friday</a>] San Francisco over Baltimore <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_27.html">Week 12, Sunday</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-12_28.html">Week 12, Final</a>] Baltimore over San Francisco <br />
[<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/12/super-bowl-lviii-projection-week-13.html">Week 13, Thursday</a>] Dallas over Baltimore <br />
<br />Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7086769080799703444.post-6599108494645322822023-12-03T22:00:00.005-06:002023-12-04T16:21:32.977-06:00NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 14<u>The Errors</u>:<br />
Nothing old, but I noticed my data source is not including playoff games for FCS or Divisions II and III. In the past I always included those games. I guess I'm not this year, because we're 3 weeks deep in the lower division playoffs, and 2 weeks into the FCS playoffs. I can see some sound logic in excluding them, especially since some title games aren't until after the first round of the FBS playoff, meaning they couldn't really factor in, but it's different from what I used to do.<br />
<br />
<u>The Top</u>:<br />
This is the interesting part of course, although as I frequently mention, I do wonder what will happen if Army or Navy ever has a really outstanding season. Their game next week isn't just an exhibition. Washington maintains their #1 spot, and my playoff would be rounded out by Michigan, Florida State, and Alabama. It's no secret my system loves an undefeated record, but that's not a golden ticket, as Liberty only made it up to #7. There's much controversy about Florida State missing the playoff, and I'll have to agree that they should have a spot. However, even though Texas beat Alabama, I have them down at #5. Both finished 12-1, but Alabama's schedule was considerably tougher (by my metrics).<br />
<br />
<u>The Home Team</u>:<br />
Missouri was inactive for Conference Championship week, and lost two spots to #14. They played Georgia earlier in the year, so their loss and fall from #2 to #6 was probably the biggest factor in the drop. This is probably one of the only years I've ranked Missouri lower than the official polls.<br />
<br />
<u>The Bottom</u>:<br />
No movement in the bottom 7 teams, so Kent State retains their last place finish.<br />
<br />
<u>Winless and Lossless</u>:<br />
We ended the "Regular Season" with 4 undefeated teams after Alabama took down Georgia, and no winless teams. <br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr><td>1</td><td>Washington</td><td>13-0</td></tr>
<tr><td>2</td><td>Michigan</td><td>13-0</td></tr>
<tr><td>3</td><td>Florida State</td><td>13-0</td></tr>
<tr><td>4</td><td>Alabama</td><td>12-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>5</td><td>Texas</td><td>12-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>6</td><td>Georgia</td><td>12-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>7</td><td>Liberty</td><td>13-0</td></tr>
<tr><td>8</td><td>Ohio State</td><td>11-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>9</td><td>Oregon</td><td>11-2</td></tr>
<tr><td>10</td><td>James Madison</td><td>11-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>11</td><td>Troy</td><td>11-2</td></tr>
<tr><td>12</td><td>Tulane</td><td>11-2</td></tr>
<tr><td>13</td><td>Oklahoma</td><td>10-2</td></tr>
<tr><td>14</td><td>Missouri</td><td>10-2</td></tr>
<tr><td>15</td><td>Penn State</td><td>10-2</td></tr>
<tr><td>16</td><td>Ole Miss</td><td>10-2</td></tr>
<tr><td>17</td><td>Toledo</td><td>11-2</td></tr>
<tr><td>18</td><td>SMU</td><td>11-2</td></tr>
<tr><td>19</td><td>Iowa</td><td>10-3</td></tr>
<tr><td>20</td><td>Louisville</td><td>10-3</td></tr>
<tr><td>21</td><td>Miami (OH)</td><td>11-2</td></tr>
<tr><td>22</td><td>LSU</td><td>9-3</td></tr>
<tr><td>23</td><td>NC State</td><td>9-3</td></tr>
<tr><td>24</td><td>Oklahoma State</td><td>9-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>25</td><td>Notre Dame</td><td>9-3</td></tr>
<tr><td>26</td><td>Arizona</td><td>9-3</td></tr>
<tr><td>27</td><td>Memphis</td><td>9-3</td></tr>
<tr><td>28</td><td>New Mexico State</td><td>10-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>29</td><td>UNLV</td><td>9-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>30</td><td>Kansas State</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>31</td><td>Clemson</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>32</td><td>Oregon State</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>33</td><td>Boise State</td><td>8-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>34</td><td>Utah</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>35</td><td>Tennessee</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>36</td><td>Wyoming</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>37</td><td>North Carolina</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>38</td><td>Kansas</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>39</td><td>Appalachian State</td><td>8-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>40</td><td>Ohio</td><td>9-3</td></tr>
<tr><td>41</td><td>West Virginia</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>42</td><td>Air Force</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>43</td><td>Iowa State</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>44</td><td>Duke</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>45</td><td>Miami</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>46</td><td>Coastal Carolina</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>47</td><td>Fresno State</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>48</td><td>USC</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>49</td><td>UT San Antonio</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>50</td><td>Jacksonville State</td><td>8-4</td></tr>
<tr><td>51</td><td>San José State</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>52</td><td>UCLA</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>53</td><td>Texas A&M</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>54</td><td>Northwestern</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>55</td><td>Kentucky</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>56</td><td>Bowling Green</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>57</td><td>Maryland</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>58</td><td>Wisconsin</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>59</td><td>Western Kentucky</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>60</td><td>Georgia Tech</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>61</td><td>Texas Tech</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>62</td><td>Texas State</td><td>7-5</td></tr>
<tr><td>63</td><td>California</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>64</td><td>Marshall</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>65</td><td>Auburn</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>66</td><td>Georgia State</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>67</td><td>UCF</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>68</td><td>Rutgers</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>69</td><td>Virginia Tech</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>70</td><td>Old Dominion</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>71</td><td>Boston College</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>72</td><td>South Alabama</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>73</td><td>Syracuse</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>74</td><td>Utah State</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>75</td><td>Arkansas State</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>76</td><td>Georgia Southern</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>77</td><td>South Carolina</td><td>5-7</td></tr>
<tr><td>78</td><td>South Florida</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>79</td><td>TCU</td><td>5-7</td></tr>
<tr><td>80</td><td>Minnesota</td><td>5-7</td></tr>
<tr><td>81</td><td>Rice</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>82</td><td>BYU</td><td>5-7</td></tr>
<tr><td>83</td><td>Illinois</td><td>5-7</td></tr>
<tr><td>84</td><td>Louisiana</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>85</td><td>Mississippi State</td><td>5-7</td></tr>
<tr><td>86</td><td>Northern Illinois</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>87</td><td>Army</td><td>5-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>88</td><td>Florida</td><td>5-7</td></tr>
<tr><td>89</td><td>Washington State</td><td>5-7</td></tr>
<tr><td>90</td><td>Nebraska</td><td>5-7</td></tr>
<tr><td>91</td><td>Eastern Michigan</td><td>6-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>92</td><td>Hawai'i</td><td>5-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>93</td><td>Navy</td><td>5-6</td></tr>
<tr><td>94</td><td>Michigan State</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>95</td><td>Colorado State</td><td>5-7</td></tr>
<tr><td>96</td><td>North Texas</td><td>5-7</td></tr>
<tr><td>97</td><td>Central Michigan</td><td>5-7</td></tr>
<tr><td>98</td><td>Purdue</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>99</td><td>Wake Forest</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>100</td><td>Colorado</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>101</td><td>Arkansas</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>102</td><td>New Mexico</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>103</td><td>Western Michigan</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>104</td><td>San Diego State</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>105</td><td>Houston</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>106</td><td>Virginia</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>107</td><td>Arizona State</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>108</td><td>Stanford</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>109</td><td>Ball State</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>110</td><td>UAB</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>111</td><td>Middle Tennessee</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>112</td><td>Florida Atlantic</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>113</td><td>Tulsa</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>114</td><td>Southern Mississippi</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>115</td><td>Pittsburgh</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>116</td><td>UMass</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>117</td><td>Cincinnati</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>118</td><td>Baylor</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>119</td><td>UTEP</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>120</td><td>Florida International</td><td>4-8</td></tr>
<tr><td>121</td><td>Indiana</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>122</td><td>Buffalo</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>123</td><td>Connecticut</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>124</td><td>Charlotte</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>125</td><td>Temple</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>126</td><td>Vanderbilt</td><td>2-10</td></tr>
<tr><td>127</td><td>Sam Houston State</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>128</td><td>Louisiana Tech</td><td>3-9</td></tr>
<tr><td>129</td><td>Nevada</td><td>2-10</td></tr>
<tr><td>130</td><td>Louisiana Monroe</td><td>2-10</td></tr>
<tr><td>131</td><td>East Carolina</td><td>2-10</td></tr>
<tr><td>132</td><td>Akron</td><td>2-10</td></tr>
<tr><td>133</td><td>Kent State</td><td>1-11</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
2023 History and #1s<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-1.html">Week 1</a> Jacksonville State and San Diego State<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-2.html">Week 2</a> Notre Dame<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-3.html">Week 3</a> Notre Dame<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/09/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-4.html">Week 4</a> Penn State<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-5.html">Week 5</a> Texas<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-6.html">Week 6</a> Oklahoma<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-7.html">Week 7</a> Michigan<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-8.html">Week 8</a> Michigan<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/10/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-9.html">Week 9</a> Ohio State<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-10.html">Week 10</a> Ohio State<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-11.html">Week 11</a> Ohio State<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-12.html">Week 12</a> Georgia<br />
<a href="https://tenetsofwilson.blogspot.com/2023/11/ncaa-football-power-rankings-week-13.html">Week 13</a> Washington<br />
<br />
Wilsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07885481981559170900noreply@blogger.com0