2019-06-10

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, June 10

Boston over St. Louis

Stanley Cup Final
BOS 3-3 STL

Round 3
STL 4-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthCup
BOS0.59259.1
STL0.55140.9

We're tied 3-3 and the whole thing comes down to one final game in Boston. I'm hoping St. Louis can make it more of a game than they did in game 6, and even moreso of course I'm hoping they will win.

I've been reading up on modeling NHL games, and the consensus seems to be that overtime is almost random, shaded just slightly toward the team that was favored to win the game. That's because the initial odds consider the chances of one team scoring more than the other over the course of 60 minutes, but overtime could be considered like a bunch of 1-second games, which of course would almost always finish in ties, but will eventually result in a goal for one side or the other. That's a long-winded way of pointing out that while the chances are 59.1% for Boston now, they slide ever-closer to 50% the later in the game it gets with a tied score.

2019-06-07

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, June 7

St. Louis over Boston

Stanley Cup Final
BOS 2-3 STL

Round 3
STL 4-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthCup
STL0.55170.9
BOS0.59229.1

Boston never had a lead in game 5, but the game was close the whole time, tied until the first minute of the second period, and only about 3 minutes of time when St. Louis was up by 2. I thought Boston looked like the stronger team, and they got many more shots on goal, but in the end St. Louis won by a goal.

Bonus stats, some of which are redundant if you really think about it. For example, the odds of STL winning in 6 are the inverse of a game 7 being necessary.

Game 749.2
BOS in 729.1
STL in 650.8
STL in 720.1

2019-06-04

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, June 4

Boston over St. Louis

Stanley Cup Final
BOS 2-2 STL

Round 3
STL 4-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthCup
BOS0.59258.7
STL0.55141.3

St. Louis scored in the first minute of the game and seemed poised to dominate the game, but it was tied 1-1 and 2-2 before they took the lead for good with 10 minutes to go. They'll get 2 days off and Game 5 will be Thursday, and of course with a 2-2 tie we'll at least have 6 games, with that one falling on Sunday

Bonus stats!

Game 750.1
BOS in 629.1
BOS in 729.6
STL in 620.8
STL in 720.5

2019-06-02

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, June 2

Boston over St. Louis

Stanley Cup Final
BOS 2-1 STL

Round 3
STL 4-2 SJS
CAR 0-4 BOS

Round 2
COL 3-4 SJS
DAL 3-4 STL
CBJ 2-4 BOS
CAR 4-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

TeamStrengthCup
BOS0.59274.8
STL0.55125.2

Game 3 was a little ugly, with a final score of 7-2. It was 5-2 when St. Louis pulled the goalie and gave up an empty net goal, which you tend to ignore when evaluating a game, but then Boston scored another one on a power play, so it kind of feels like they all count. Either way, it's just one loss, so everything could turn around in game 4.

Bonus stats!

Game 670.9
Game 735.7
BOS in 529.1
BOS in 624.7
BOS in 721.1
STL in 610.6
STL in 714.6