2017-09-29

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 4, Thursday

Kansas City over Atlanta

Green Bay beat Chicago easily on Thursday night, but couldn't quite take over the NFC lead from Atlanta. Given the 35 points they scored, if they had held Chicago to a safety or less they would now be in the NFC lead, based on the results of the simulations at their new, higher strength. But, they allowed 14 points, including a garbage-time TD.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC3-00.55852.1376.1559.3331.8316.959.05
JAC2-10.56347.0567.5749.9026.9714.467.80
ATL3-00.53652.0672.2855.5028.7214.757.44
LAR2-10.54561.6167.1846.0324.1012.596.46
GB3-10.54140.0860.8743.2622.5411.725.96
BUF2-10.53948.3162.2743.9422.4711.395.87
PIT2-10.53352.2361.8241.4020.8410.435.31
DET2-10.53931.3052.7636.4418.879.774.95
TEN2-10.52939.9756.7838.7519.419.664.88
OAK2-10.53322.2050.8733.8417.048.594.38
DEN2-10.53324.7550.5033.4816.838.484.31
PHI2-10.51737.5653.5536.0517.808.754.24
WAS2-10.52332.7250.2433.8416.908.414.13
MIN2-10.52026.6548.1232.1816.027.983.90
CAR2-10.51621.6041.9427.2613.436.613.20
DAL2-10.50428.0943.7228.2313.566.503.07
NE2-10.50630.5843.9627.5713.086.172.97
BAL2-10.49239.8450.0529.8413.716.272.94
TB1-10.51117.1832.6220.509.984.862.32
SEA1-20.47218.6224.0613.035.832.611.15
NO1-20.4919.1719.5511.355.302.481.14
MIA1-10.46712.9621.9012.245.332.321.03
ARI1-20.46015.0818.739.564.161.820.78
HOU1-20.4576.7714.027.423.171.350.59
NYJ1-20.4588.1614.257.393.161.350.58
IND1-20.4396.2113.206.892.821.150.48
CLE0-30.4604.297.063.451.470.630.28
SF0-30.4504.696.663.181.350.580.24
CIN0-30.4343.645.532.581.030.420.17
LAC0-30.4570.924.071.990.850.360.16
CHI1-30.4181.964.592.120.840.330.13
NYG0-30.4311.633.131.460.590.240.10


[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta

2017-09-26

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 3, Final

Kansas City over Atlanta

Dallas beat Arizona by a reasonable score, so, as expected, nothing changed at the top. I couldn't quite put my finger on why that one game made Atlanta fall just behind Jacksonville in title chances, but the answer is the fairly obvious one. Jacksonville still has to play Arizona, so their expected wins just went up a bit. Also, Atlanta will play Dallas, so their average record went down a little. Cascade those chances out and they affect playoff seeding (or lack thereof), and give Jacksonville the bump they needed to pass Atlanta.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC3-00.55852.1376.1159.2731.7816.939.11
JAC2-10.56347.0467.5449.8326.9414.447.85
ATL3-00.53651.7772.9356.4329.4715.307.71
LAR2-10.54561.6567.5546.9824.8513.116.73
BUF2-10.53948.2962.2343.9022.4511.395.91
PIT2-10.53352.7362.3741.8821.0910.555.41
DET2-10.53936.6254.7938.5920.1610.505.32
TEN2-10.52939.9756.7538.7119.399.664.92
OAK2-10.53322.2150.8333.8117.018.584.40
PHI2-10.51736.9153.5736.4118.169.024.37
DEN2-10.53324.7450.4733.4416.818.474.34
WAS2-10.52332.7651.0134.7817.548.824.33
MIN2-10.52031.2550.0434.1617.168.614.20
CAR2-10.51621.5642.8328.0813.966.943.36
DAL2-10.50428.7045.2629.6814.406.973.29
NE2-10.50630.5843.9427.5413.066.172.99
BAL2-10.49239.5449.9529.8013.696.272.96
GB2-10.50024.3140.2625.7312.365.932.77
TB1-10.51117.5334.2221.7610.685.252.51
SEA1-20.47218.6524.4513.486.102.761.22
NO1-20.4919.1520.2411.855.582.641.21
MIA1-10.46712.9621.8912.235.322.311.04
ARI1-20.46015.1119.079.904.361.920.82
HOU1-20.4576.7714.017.413.161.350.59
NYJ1-20.4588.1614.257.393.151.350.59
CHI1-20.4527.8213.827.373.181.370.58
IND1-20.4396.2213.206.882.821.150.48
CLE0-30.4604.247.043.441.470.630.28
SF0-30.4504.586.693.251.400.600.25
CIN0-30.4343.495.352.481.000.400.17
LAC0-30.4570.924.061.980.850.360.16
NYG0-30.4311.633.271.550.640.260.11


[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta

2017-09-25

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 3, Sunday

Kansas City over Atlanta

Baltimore lost by a huge margin, and I was starting to think they'd get shut out. Carolina didn't do much better, so we've got 2 new teams projected for the Superbowl. Kansas City won a division game to rocket up the charts, and Atlanta defeated the only other undefeated NFC team to take their position. By virtue of the way I calculate strength, Cincinnati pulled a little ahead of the now-league-worst Giants, despite both teams losing 27-24. Nothing much should change after tonight, with a matchup of two teams hovering around .480 and in the lower half of the league.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC3-00.55852.3176.4059.5731.9417.019.16
ATL3-00.53652.1873.5857.0729.8615.547.84
JAC2-10.56347.0167.2949.6026.8114.387.83
LAR2-10.54556.1764.4545.2123.9812.676.50
BUF2-10.53948.3062.2343.9022.4411.385.92
PIT2-10.53352.7462.3841.9021.1010.565.42
DET2-10.53936.5655.3039.0420.4510.675.41
TEN2-10.52939.9156.4838.4619.279.604.89
PHI2-10.51741.7156.1838.1619.069.484.60
WAS2-10.52336.9953.4736.4518.429.274.55
OAK2-10.53322.2851.2134.0817.148.654.44
DEN2-10.53324.4850.3533.3416.768.444.34
MIN2-10.52031.1450.3234.3917.328.704.25
CAR2-10.51621.4743.1228.3014.107.023.40
NE2-10.50630.5843.9227.5313.066.163.00
BAL2-10.49239.5349.9529.8113.706.272.97
GB2-10.50024.5140.8626.1612.586.052.83
TB1-10.51117.2534.2521.7710.715.272.52
ARI1-10.48123.4031.1218.218.423.891.75
DAL1-10.48019.2630.4318.358.453.891.75
NO1-20.4919.1020.4511.995.662.681.23
SEA1-20.47216.4722.8312.745.782.621.15
MIA1-10.46712.9621.9012.235.322.311.04
NYJ1-20.4588.1614.247.393.151.340.59
CHI1-20.4527.7913.897.443.221.400.59
HOU1-20.4576.7713.877.333.131.340.59
IND1-20.4396.3113.246.912.831.160.48
CLE0-30.4604.247.053.451.470.630.28
SF0-30.4503.966.143.021.300.560.23
CIN0-30.4343.495.352.491.000.400.17
LAC0-30.4570.934.152.030.860.370.16
NYG0-30.4312.043.621.710.700.290.12


[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore

2017-09-24

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 4

I had to wait for a Sunday morning game, but Week 4 is complete. Connecticut hosting East Carolina got rescheduled to this weekend due to some hurricane reshuffling, and put on Sunday because Connecticut's field was being used by MLS on Saturday. But you didn't come here to read about the #98 and #103 teams.

Georgia won again and retained their #1 spot. We're down to 24 undefeated teams, from 37 last week. At the bottom of the charts, UMass hung on to #130 with another loss, but UTEP, Charlotte, Bowling Green, and Nevada are hot on their heels.

Missouri reportedly still has a football team, and I'm really hoping they'll show up in Kentucky after the bye week, because whoever that was out there this week gave up 51 points to Auburn.


1Georgia4-0
2USC4-0
3Michigan4-0
4Clemson4-0
5San Diego State4-0
6South Florida4-0
7Wake Forest4-0
8Virginia Tech4-0
9TCU4-0
10Alabama4-0
11Washington4-0
12Penn State4-0
13Oklahoma4-0
14Duke4-0
15Washington State4-0
16Utah4-0
17Texas Tech3-0
18California3-1
19Iowa3-1
20Mississippi State3-1
21Notre Dame3-1
22Navy3-0
23South Carolina3-1
24Ohio State3-1
25Kentucky3-1
26Memphis3-0
27Louisville3-1
28Colorado3-1
29Oregon3-1
30Virginia3-1
31SMU3-1
32Minnesota3-0
33Vanderbilt3-1
34Wisconsin3-0
35NC State3-1
36LSU3-1
37Texas A&M3-1
38Ohio3-1
39Toledo3-1
40Oklahoma State3-1
41Auburn3-1
42Florida2-1
43Troy3-1
44West Virginia3-1
45Tennessee3-1
46UT San Antonio3-0
47Arizona State2-2
48UCF2-0
49Tulane2-2
50Boise State2-2
51Cincinnati2-2
52Illinois2-1
53UCLA2-2
54Purdue2-2
55Miami2-0
56Ole Miss2-1
57Indiana2-1
58Stanford2-2
59Marshall2-1
60Georgia Tech2-1
61Louisiana Tech2-2
62Houston2-1
63Maryland2-1
64Michigan State2-1
65Wyoming2-2
66Utah State2-2
67Florida Intl2-1
68Iowa State2-1
69Northern Illinois2-1
70Kansas State2-1
71Miami (OH)2-2
72North Texas2-2
73Middle Tennessee2-2
74Temple2-2
75Army2-2
76Western Michigan2-2
77Colorado State2-2
78Southern Mississippi2-1
78Appalachian State2-2
80Old Dominion2-2
81Hawai'i2-2
82Western Kentucky2-2
83Nebraska2-2
84Northwestern2-1
85Eastern Michigan2-1
86Syracuse2-2
87New Mexico State2-2
88Buffalo2-2
89Arizona2-2
90Ball State2-2
91Idaho2-2
92New Mexico2-2
93Central Michigan2-2
94Boston College1-3
95UAB2-2
96North Carolina1-3
97Arkansas1-2
98East Carolina1-3
99Kent State1-3
100Air Force1-2
101Fresno State1-2
102Pittsburgh1-3
103Connecticut1-2
104Texas1-2
105Arkansas State1-2
106UNLV1-2
107Akron1-3
108Georgia State1-2
109BYU1-3
110Louisiana Monroe1-2
111Missouri1-3
112Oregon State1-3
113Florida Atlantic1-3
114Texas State1-3
115Tulsa1-3
116Coastal Carolina1-2
117South Alabama1-3
118Rutgers1-3
119Rice1-3
120Kansas1-3
121San Jose State1-4
122Florida State0-2
123Louisiana1-3
124Baylor0-4
125Georgia Southern0-3
126Nevada0-4
127Bowling Green0-4
128Charlotte0-4
129UTEP0-4
130UMass0-5

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia

2017-09-22

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 3, Thursday

Carolina over Baltimore

The Rams made a push for it, but couldn't quite take over the top spot in the NFC. If they hadn't allowed San Francisco to score 39 points they would have had a chance.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
CAR2-00.56241.6469.3752.6928.9115.838.43
BAL2-00.56151.7072.1455.0529.8616.098.65
OAK2-00.54731.9360.9344.1023.1412.086.33
LAR2-10.54552.7063.8445.6924.1512.626.51
DET2-00.54355.3469.7453.0928.1114.677.55
PIT2-00.54242.8164.7447.0924.4312.626.55
DEN2-00.54234.9661.6744.6523.1511.936.18
KC2-00.53229.5256.7339.9120.2210.205.19
TB1-00.53024.4751.3235.1317.889.154.59
ATL2-00.53030.8760.6842.6721.7311.115.56
TEN1-10.52042.9750.0531.5815.497.593.77
BUF1-10.51232.7342.2726.4912.796.163.01
PHI1-10.51238.4347.7430.6615.007.303.52
MIA1-00.50534.9444.5828.3413.516.403.09
JAC1-10.50231.4540.9124.8111.705.512.64
NE1-10.50125.8833.5419.939.414.432.12
GB1-10.49320.3833.6120.739.804.602.14
LAC0-20.4893.5911.406.352.931.350.63
WAS1-10.48827.2937.5822.8510.614.902.25
MIN1-10.48518.1931.0818.858.754.041.84
ARI1-10.48221.3431.1118.588.543.901.77
SEA1-10.48122.4932.6319.579.004.111.86
DAL1-10.48027.0835.6921.239.694.411.99
CLE0-20.4633.069.414.932.140.930.41
NO0-20.4613.029.395.032.210.980.42
HOU1-10.45416.6923.4612.695.382.280.98
NYJ0-20.4516.449.314.601.930.820.35
SF0-30.4513.486.253.131.340.570.24
CHI0-20.4496.109.965.172.220.950.40
IND0-20.4438.8912.426.252.581.070.45
NYG0-20.4417.209.994.932.050.860.35
CIN0-20.4402.436.433.221.340.550.23


[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore

2017-09-19

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 2, Final

Carolina over Baltimore

The projection at the top stayed the same, although Detroit is now the second most likely team to win the NFC. And despite the pitiful loss, the Giants are not quite the worst team in the league, still hovering a bit above Cincinnati.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
CAR2-00.56241.6769.6353.1129.2116.048.55
BAL2-00.56151.7472.1355.0529.8716.098.67
OAK2-00.54731.9460.8744.0523.1212.076.34
LAR1-10.54444.7255.1738.5420.3310.635.48
DET2-00.54355.2469.7853.4528.3914.847.63
PIT2-00.54242.7664.6747.0124.3812.606.54
DEN2-00.54134.9561.6244.5923.1111.916.18
KC2-00.53129.5156.6639.8520.1810.185.19
TB1-00.53024.4751.5135.4218.079.274.65
ATL2-00.52930.8360.8342.9521.9111.235.62
TEN1-10.52042.9050.0431.6015.507.593.78
BUF1-10.51232.6942.2326.4712.796.153.01
PHI1-10.51138.3747.8731.0015.227.423.58
MIA1-00.50534.9544.5928.3513.526.413.10
JAC1-10.50231.4540.9624.8611.735.532.65
NE1-10.50125.8933.5519.949.424.442.13
GB1-10.49320.3933.7521.009.974.692.18
LAC0-20.4893.6011.426.362.931.360.63
WAS1-10.48927.2837.7823.1610.805.002.30
MIN1-10.48518.2231.2019.088.894.121.88
ARI1-10.48223.6432.5319.519.004.121.87
SEA1-10.48124.7233.9320.429.424.311.95
DAL1-10.48127.1335.9221.579.894.502.04
CLE0-20.4633.079.444.952.150.940.41
NO0-20.4613.039.485.112.251.000.43
HOU1-10.45416.7423.5712.765.412.300.99
NYJ0-20.4516.469.344.621.940.820.35
CHI0-20.4506.1610.145.322.300.980.41
IND0-20.4438.9112.486.292.601.080.45
SF0-20.4436.9110.405.352.260.950.39
NYG0-20.4417.2110.085.012.100.880.36
CIN0-20.4402.446.443.231.340.560.23


[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore

2017-09-18

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 2, Sunday

Carolina over Baltimore

Both conference leaders fell from their perches, and now we've got a brand new matchup projected, Carolina over Baltimore. Still, if I get that right this early in the season, I'll be pretty surprised.

I watched a video today of Dan Dierdorf delivering the news to St. Louis that the Cardinals would be leaving for Arizona. I didn't previously know that he became a sports anchor on one of our local stations right after his career for a few years before Monday Night Football signed him. Anyway, that video led me to video of a similar report in Baltimore when the Colts left town a few years prior. Then I noticed in week 2 it was Cardinals vs Colts. Also in the first 2 weeks was Rams vs Colts and Ravens vs Browns. Then I figured when the Rams were still in St. Louis, the NFL should have scheduled them against the Ravens at the same time the Colts played the Cardinals, just to catch any potentially confused time travelers. But, then I realized due to the way the schedule works, the Rams and Cardinals, both NFC West teams, could play either the AFC South with Indianapolis or the AFC North with Baltimore, but not both in a given year. It was a slow day at work.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
CAR2-00.56241.7970.2954.1029.9716.668.87
BAL2-00.56151.7372.4455.3430.0316.188.79
PIT2-00.54242.7765.0247.3224.5412.686.64
OAK2-00.54731.9460.5543.8022.9912.006.35
DEN2-00.54134.9561.3044.3422.9811.846.20
ATL2-00.52930.9461.5143.9022.5611.715.86
LAR1-10.54444.7455.1739.1720.9211.025.68
KC2-00.53229.5156.3339.6120.0610.125.20
TB1-00.53024.2251.7935.9418.489.604.81
DET1-00.51743.1655.2938.9819.669.784.78
TEN1-10.52042.9150.0831.6115.517.603.82
PHI1-10.51135.7445.9330.3515.087.423.58
MIA1-00.50534.9544.6228.3713.536.423.13
BUF1-10.51232.7042.2726.4912.806.163.04
JAC1-10.50231.4440.9824.8611.735.532.68
GB1-10.49325.5936.6923.1611.095.252.44
WAS1-10.48925.3636.2122.7310.735.012.31
NE1-10.50125.8933.5819.969.424.432.15
MIN1-10.48523.0633.9821.089.924.622.11
DAL1-10.48025.5934.9221.469.974.582.07
SEA1-10.48124.7233.9720.819.724.492.03
ARI1-10.48223.6232.5019.869.284.301.95
NYG0-10.46913.3119.8311.495.202.341.03
HOU1-10.45416.7423.5912.775.422.301.00
LAC0-20.4893.6011.276.282.901.340.63
CHI0-20.4508.1911.726.172.681.160.49
NO0-20.4613.059.775.332.371.060.46
IND0-20.4438.9112.506.302.601.080.46
CLE0-20.4633.069.595.032.190.950.42
SF0-20.4436.9110.425.482.351.000.41
NYJ0-20.4516.459.344.631.950.820.36
CIN0-20.4402.446.563.291.360.570.24


[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams

2017-09-17

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 3

Week 3 is complete and so are my rankings. Last week's #1, UCLA, lost to Memphis to fall all the way down to #28. Now at the top are Georgia, California, and Clemson. Georgia has the best possible strength of schedule, beating 3 teams that are all 2-1, but this week was an FCS opponent.

At the bottom of the table, the rankings remained remarkably stable this week, with #128-#130 going to Nevada, UTEP, and UMass once again. UMass may need someone to lose during their bye week to catch up to their 0-4 record.

As for my usual Missouri blurb, they lost 35-3. At least they were only outscored 7-0 in the second half, but that was probably as much to do with Purdue protecting a 25-point lead as it was any defensive adjustments. I'm no football expert, but I think they're going to need to score at least a touchdown to win most games.

1Georgia3-0
2California3-0
3Clemson3-0
4South Florida3-0
5Michigan3-0
6Iowa3-0
7Oregon3-0
8Colorado3-0
9Kentucky3-0
10San Diego State3-0
11Mississippi State3-0
12Wake Forest3-0
13Washington3-0
14Oklahoma State3-0
15Oklahoma3-0
16TCU3-0
17USC3-0
18Virginia Tech3-0
19Vanderbilt3-0
20Alabama3-0
21Washington State3-0
22Wisconsin3-0
23Minnesota3-0
24Duke3-0
25Toledo3-0
26Penn State3-0
27Utah3-0
28UCLA2-1
29Louisville2-1
T-30Notre Dame2-1
T-30Ohio State2-1
32Maryland2-0
33South Carolina2-1
34Purdue2-1
35Illinois2-1
36Memphis2-0
37Ohio2-1
38Ole Miss2-1
39Navy2-0
40Texas A&M2-1
41Houston2-0
42Texas Tech2-0
43Boise State2-1
44Virginia2-1
45Iowa State2-1
46NC State2-1
47SMU2-1
48Cincinnati2-1
49Kansas State2-1
50Marshall2-1
51Louisiana Tech2-1
52Hawai'i2-1
53Appalachian State2-1
54Ball State2-1
55Michigan State2-0
56Army2-1
57Colorado State2-2
58Auburn2-1
59Eastern Michigan2-0
60Temple2-1
61Northern Illinois2-1
62LSU2-1
63Central Michigan2-1
64UT San Antonio2-0
65Southern Mississippi2-1
66Syracuse2-1
67Old Dominion2-1
68West Virginia2-1
69UAB2-1
70Northwestern2-1
71Troy2-1
72Tennessee2-1
73Arizona2-1
74Indiana1-1
75Connecticut1-1
76Florida1-1
77Middle Tennessee1-2
78North Carolina1-2
79Boston College1-2
80Pittsburgh1-2
81Utah State1-2
82Tulane1-2
83UCF1-0
84Arkansas1-1
85Stanford1-2
86Miami1-0
87Tulsa1-2
88Texas1-2
89Kent State1-2
90Wyoming1-2
91Arizona State1-2
92Air Force1-1
93Nebraska1-2
94Akron1-2
95Florida Atlantic1-2
96North Texas1-2
97Missouri1-2
98Texas State1-2
99Western Michigan1-2
100Buffalo1-2
101Georgia Tech1-1
102Fresno State1-2
103South Alabama1-2
104Miami (OH)1-2
105Florida Intl1-1
106Western Kentucky1-2
107Arkansas State1-1
108Rutgers1-2
109Coastal Carolina1-1
110Oregon State1-3
111BYU1-3
112Kansas1-2
113UNLV1-1
114Rice1-2
115San Jose State1-3
116New Mexico State1-2
117New Mexico1-2
118Louisiana1-2
119Idaho1-2
120Florida State0-1
121Georgia State0-2
122Louisiana Monroe0-2
123East Carolina0-3
124Baylor0-3
125Georgia Southern0-2
126Charlotte0-3
127Bowling Green0-3
128Nevada0-3
129UTEP0-3
130UMass0-4

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA

2017-09-15

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 2, Thursday

Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams

Last night two teams from the bottom of my table faced off, and predictably few points were scored. Houston won 13-9, and Cincinnati is now just 0.36% likely to win the Superbowl. Of course, it's still very early, and I don't trust these numbers very much with two 0-0 teams still in the mix.

Since both teams were near the bottom, the projection at the top stayed the same. I'm not a big gambler, but I bet would get pretty good odds betting on Jacksonville to win and LA to make the Superbowl.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
JAC1-00.53052.6263.6846.4524.3812.746.58
BAL1-00.53144.4859.4342.9322.6111.866.14
LAR1-00.53149.9259.5842.4922.0611.415.95
DAL1-00.53141.5056.3239.9920.8110.805.64
BUF1-00.52145.3957.7840.7420.9510.745.44
CAR1-00.53136.4653.7038.2719.9210.345.40
PHI1-00.52138.0853.0336.7818.739.524.87
KC1-00.51830.6850.6135.3618.069.214.63
OAK1-00.51929.6449.9634.8617.869.144.61
GB1-00.52330.2949.4234.3817.578.964.60
PIT1-00.50736.4052.0735.5417.738.844.36
DET1-00.51729.3448.3633.3116.808.464.29
MIN1-00.51729.1747.5232.6016.458.294.21
ATL1-00.51330.7247.3932.3016.168.074.06
DEN1-00.50629.1248.2332.8616.378.144.00
MIA0-00.50026.0537.9324.5912.095.922.88
TB0-00.50021.0134.6022.3010.845.272.59
CLE0-10.49314.6426.3416.117.803.781.81
TEN0-10.48117.8426.4015.817.453.511.64
LAC0-10.49410.5622.8814.006.803.301.59
ARI0-10.48318.0625.2714.886.973.261.55
NE0-10.48215.9924.5514.596.903.261.53
IND0-10.46915.1724.4214.446.633.041.39
SEA0-10.47716.7423.5913.736.352.931.37
CHI0-10.48711.2021.1712.665.992.841.36
NYJ0-10.47912.5821.7312.786.012.821.31
NO0-10.48311.8120.5812.175.712.681.27
HOU1-10.45514.3825.2814.456.412.851.26
WAS0-10.47910.9320.1111.745.462.541.19
SF0-10.46915.2821.5812.245.562.521.16
NYG0-10.4699.4817.8110.154.622.100.97
CIN0-20.4404.498.704.521.950.850.36


[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams

2017-09-14

Another Autographed Ball

Inspired by this post from the lost collector, I decided to send a letter to Commissioner Rob Manfred to ask for an autographed ball. I wrote a real letter, and gave him some feedback on some of the changes he's been implementing, hoping that maybe I'd get some sort of reply. I complimented his efforts to grow the fanbase of the game, but told him I thought the automatic intentional walk was a bad idea, citing Tony Pena, who has twice faked an intentional walk on a full count and tricked the batter into a strikeout. But, when my padded envelope came in the mail, there was no reply, except for this baseball with a nice clear signature.


Robert D. Manfred, Jr.

2017-09-12

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 1

Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams

If you've followed along in the past, you may have noticed I usually post projections after every day of games, except in week 1, where I wait for everyone to play a game. Well, Hurricane Irma moved a week 1 game to week 11, so Miami and Tampa have no points scored or against, which is very unfortunate in my projection formula. I've done the sanest thing I could think to do, which is just assume they both have a strength of .500 until they play.

Here's a quick rundown originally taken from 2014's introductory post.
Each year I project the Superbowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.
If my week 1 projection comes true, I'll eat my hat. But, Jacksonville and LA both scored a ton of points and didn't allow many, and are the only 1-0 teams in their divisions, so they're in the position of strength for their respective conferences. But, everyone's no more than 2 games of the pace, so anything can still happen.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
JAC1-00.53053.5463.7646.2824.2812.686.54
BAL1-00.53142.6958.0741.9822.0911.585.99
LAR1-00.53149.9659.5642.4622.0311.395.94
DAL1-00.53141.5056.4240.0920.8710.825.65
CAR1-00.53136.4553.8238.3819.9810.375.41
BUF1-00.52145.1657.4340.5020.8110.665.40
PHI1-00.52138.1253.1836.9118.809.554.89
OAK1-00.51929.8550.0334.9917.929.164.63
KC1-00.51830.6250.3235.1917.979.154.61
GB1-00.52330.3049.2534.2417.508.934.58
DET1-00.51729.3348.1833.1516.738.434.28
MIN1-00.51729.1947.3732.4816.408.274.20
PIT1-00.50734.1549.9734.0816.998.464.17
ATL1-00.51330.7647.5532.4416.238.114.08
DEN1-00.50628.9047.8032.5816.218.063.96
MIA0-00.50026.2238.0124.6812.125.942.89
TB0-00.50021.0134.7122.3910.885.292.59
CLE0-10.49313.5724.9015.237.373.571.71
TEN0-10.48118.0326.0115.497.293.431.60
LAC0-10.49410.6322.8514.016.803.301.58
ARI0-10.48318.0425.2014.836.943.251.54
NE0-10.48215.9324.3114.446.823.221.51
SEA0-10.47716.7323.5413.686.332.931.37
IND0-10.46915.3624.0114.136.492.981.36
CHI0-10.48711.1821.0012.555.942.811.34
NYJ0-10.47912.6821.7212.796.002.821.31
NO0-10.48311.7820.6412.225.732.691.28
HOU0-10.47013.0722.0812.785.872.701.23
WAS0-10.47910.9020.1511.765.472.551.20
SF0-10.46915.2821.5512.225.542.511.15
CIN0-10.4699.5918.7410.854.982.291.04
NYG0-10.4699.4817.8810.204.642.110.97

2017-09-10

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 2

I guess I made a slight error last week when I said there were still the same 128 FBS teams this year. I actually saw a commercial that promised something about "All 130 FBS teams", which prompted me to give it a second look. UAB has been completely reinstated. I knew they were back, but for some reason I thought they'd have to ramp back up to FBS. Coastal Carolina is in transition, but counts as an FBS opponent this year, even though they won't be bowl eligible. Whether or not I count them as FBS and display their rankings doesn't affect anyone else in my system; it's purely aesthetic. I'll add them to the chart, because I still displayed Ohio State when they were postseason ineligible, albeit under much different circumstances. So, now that Houston and UT San Antonio have played a game each, and UAB and Coastal Carolina have been added, the bottom team will be #130.

This is the second week in a row I've watched Mizzou play at someone else's house. I don't generally set my schedule around their game, and just watch it if it's on and I'm not busy. They showed some promise to start, but then Deebo Samuel of South Carolina started to look like Bo Jackson, and the game never really got competitive.

There's still a logjam of 2-0 teams, but UCLA comes out on top this week, with South Florida falling all the way to #25 without playing a game. 4 more FBS games were canceled this week, and all included currently ranked teams, which may result in some oddness later on since college games don't usually get rescheduled, especially if some of those teams with missing games are otherwise undefeated.

1UCLA2-0
2Penn State2-0
3Colorado2-0
4San Diego State2-0
5Clemson2-0
6Georgia2-0
7Illinois2-0
8Iowa2-0
9South Carolina2-0
10Oregon2-0
11Maryland2-0
12Duke2-0
13Virginia Tech2-0
14Louisville2-0
15Wake Forest2-0
16Kansas State2-0
17Wisconsin2-0
18Navy2-0
19USC2-0
20Washington State2-0
21Oklahoma State2-0
22TCU2-0
23Oklahoma2-0
24Utah2-0
25South Florida2-0
26California2-0
27SMU2-0
28Hawai'i2-1
29Vanderbilt2-0
30Tennessee2-0
31Mississippi State2-0
32Kentucky2-0
33Michigan2-0
34Alabama2-0
35Washington2-0
36Ole Miss2-0
37Army2-0
38Toledo2-0
39Minnesota2-0
40Central Michigan2-0
41Old Dominion2-0
42Michigan State2-0
43Eastern Michigan2-0
44LSU2-0
45Colorado State2-1
46Kent State1-1
47Connecticut1-0
48Akron1-1
49Pittsburgh1-1
50Texas A&M1-1
51Ohio State1-1
52UCF1-0
53Arizona State1-1
54Notre Dame1-1
55NC State1-1
56Boston College1-1
57Purdue1-1
58Houston1-0
59Ball State1-1
60Miami1-0
61Texas State1-1
62Stanford1-1
63Utah State1-1
64Iowa State1-1
65Tulane1-1
66Boise State1-1
67Texas1-1
68Tulsa1-1
69Georgia Tech1-1
70Arkansas1-1
71North Texas1-1
72Indiana1-1
73Middle Tennessee1-1
74Memphis1-0
75Appalachian State1-1
T-76UT San Antonio1-0
T-76Auburn1-1
78Nebraska1-1
79Western Kentucky1-1
80Air Force1-0
81Texas Tech1-0
82West Virginia1-1
83Wyoming1-1
84Northwestern1-1
85Coastal Carolina1-0
86UNLV1-1
87Florida Intl1-1
88New Mexico State1-1
89Temple1-1
90Northern Illinois1-1
91Southern Mississippi1-1
92Marshall1-1
93Ohio1-1
94Missouri1-1
95Virginia1-1
96Louisiana Tech1-1
97Cincinnati1-1
98Fresno State1-1
99Idaho1-1
100Kansas1-1
101UAB1-1
102Rice1-1
103Arizona1-1
104BYU1-2
105Troy1-1
106Oregon State1-2
107Louisiana1-1
108Syracuse1-1
109New Mexico1-1
110San Jose State1-2
111Miami (OH)1-1
112Florida Atlantic0-2
113Florida0-1
T-114Florida State0-1
T-114North Carolina0-2
116Georgia State0-1
117South Alabama0-2
118Charlotte0-2
119Western Michigan0-2
120Bowling Green0-2
121Buffalo0-2
122Rutgers0-2
123Louisiana Monroe0-1
124Arkansas State0-1
125Georgia Southern0-2
126East Carolina0-2
127Baylor0-2
128Nevada0-2
129UTEP0-2
130UMass0-3

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida

2017-09-07

August Card Show Autographs

From my post history, it appears I didn't go to a card show from March until August. I made up for lost time, though, and got 3 autographs last month.

T.J. Mathews
Tom Lawless #12
Luis Alicea
T.J. Mathews was there along with his dad, Nelson Mathews, but I opted not to get his autograph, since he was never a Cardinal. T.J. was traded away in the deal that brought Mark McGwire to St. Louis in 1997, and was signed as a free agent again for 2001. He was released, played for Houston, then re-signed with St. Louis in August 2002, but never made an appearance.

Tom Lawless took his time signing his ball, and it shows in his perfectly legible signature. I always appreciate the extra touches like his #12.

Finally, there's a ball that appears to have some sort of cuneiform scrawled on it, but I promise that was written by Luis Alicea.

2017-09-05

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 1

College football has officially finished week 1, so it's time to start ranking the teams again. In case you're new here, here's an explanation I mostly just copy from year to year, with some slight editing.

A few years ago, I thought to myself, "I could do a better job than some of the BCS computers".  As I recall, at the time I felt Mizzou was underrated.  The BCS rules stated margin of victory cannot be used, so I thought I'd stick to that.  I put together a convergence algorithm, in which I initially rank the teams by record (so all the undefeated teams start tied at #1), then calculate each team's strength of schedule based on the current rankings of its opponents, and re-sort based on that strength.  I run through this process until 2 consecutive iterations give the same result, or there is a loop.  So, if iteration 10,002 gives the same rankings as iteration 10,000, then each subsequent iteration would fluctuate between the rankings in 10,000 and 10,001.  I average those rankings to come up with the final rankings.  It is still possible - but generally unlikely - that teams can tie for a final ranking. Now that the BCS is dead, I'll just consider these rankings my advice on #1 to #4 to the College Football Playoff committee.

Due to most teams playing other teams in lower divisions at times, and a lack of desire on my part to delve so deeply that I have to track down NAIA schedules, I've decided to count all games listed on ESPN's college football site, which includes all FBS, FCS, and Division II and III schedules, and any of their lower-tier opponents, but only when those opponents play at least a Division III team. (i.e., an NAIA team will be listed when they play against a Div III team, but the rest of their games won't be listed, resulting in a lot of 0-1 teams mixed into my system).  I then filter the final results to only the FBS schools.

In the past, in week 1, there were only 2 possible situations for a team. First is to be 1-0, having defeated an 0-1 team. Second is, unsurprisingly, to be a 0-1 team, having lost to a 1-0 team. For this reason, in week 1, all 1-0 teams will be tied for #1, and the rest tied at N+1, where N is the number of #1 teams. Did your team choose to beat up on an FCS (formerly known as Division 1-AA) team? Congrats, you're #1 this week! However, since 2016 we seem to be in the era of the pre-Week-1 game, which means a 2-0, 0-2, and/or 1-1 team might be in the mix. Also, some teams don't play in Week 1, and you don't get a ranking until you play, thus the bottom of the chart may not be the full number of teams in FBS.

The FBS once again stayed steady at 128 teams this year, but again I still have to modify my filter slightly, to account for ESPN's stylistic differences in listing the teams. This year, Massachusetts is now UMass, and Louisiana Lafayette is just Louisiana. In the past, they've waffled between "Mississippi" and "Ole Miss", and changed Hawaii to Hawai'i. I try to keep up with any adjustments, but if you notice your FBS team missing, leave me a comment and they'll be there next week. I think I'm good, because I have 126 teams represented, and Houston and UT San Antonio still to add, since they were canceled due to Hurricane Harvey.

Now onto the Week 1 rankings, which are still mostly silly.

1South Florida2-0
2Hawai'i2-0
3Colorado1-0
4Arkansas1-0
5LSU1-0
6Colorado State1-1
7Stanford1-0
7Ohio State1-0
7Oklahoma State1-0
7UCF1-0
7Wake Forest1-0
7Cincinnati1-0
7Minnesota1-0
7Toledo1-0
7Central Michigan1-0
7Connecticut1-0
7Utah1-0
7Idaho1-0
7Memphis1-0
7Arizona State1-0
7Washington1-0
7Wisconsin1-0
7Army1-0
7Eastern Michigan1-0
7Syracuse1-0
7Navy1-0
7Boston College1-0
7Alabama1-0
7USC1-0
7Clemson1-0
7Penn State1-0
7Oklahoma1-0
7Michigan1-0
7Auburn1-0
7Georgia1-0
7Louisville1-0
7Miami1-0
7Kansas State1-0
7Maryland1-0
7Washington State1-0
7Illinois1-0
7Iowa1-0
7Michigan State1-0
7Missouri1-0
7California1-0
7Pittsburgh1-0
7Air Force1-0
7South Carolina1-0
7Notre Dame1-0
7Northwestern1-0
7Virginia1-0
7Boise State1-0
7Texas Tech1-0
7Kentucky1-0
7Mississippi State1-0
7Duke1-0
7Old Dominion1-0
7Marshall1-0
7North Texas1-0
7Western Kentucky1-0
7Louisiana Tech1-0
7SMU1-0
7Kansas1-0
7Ohio1-0
7Louisiana1-0
7Texas State1-0
7Ole Miss1-0
7New Mexico1-0
7Nebraska1-0
7TCU1-0
7Iowa State1-0
7Vanderbilt1-0
7Tulane1-0
7Oregon1-0
7San Diego State1-0
7Fresno State1-0
7Arizona1-0
7Virginia Tech1-0
7UCLA1-0
7Tennessee1-0
81San Jose State1-1
82BYU1-1
83Oregon State1-1
84Rice0-1
84Indiana0-1
84Tulsa0-1
84Florida Intl0-1
84Buffalo0-1
84Georgia State0-1
84Louisiana Monroe0-1
84New Mexico State0-1
84Rutgers0-1
84Utah State0-1
84Charlotte0-1
84Florida Atlantic0-1
84Northern Illinois0-1
84Florida State0-1
84Western Michigan0-1
84Kent State0-1
84Akron0-1
84UTEP0-1
84Florida0-1
84Georgia Southern0-1
84Appalachian State0-1
84Purdue0-1
84Texas0-1
84Ball State0-1
84Wyoming0-1
84Bowling Green0-1
84North Carolina0-1
84NC State0-1
84Temple0-1
84Nevada0-1
84Troy0-1
84Southern Mississippi0-1
84East Carolina0-1
84Miami (OH)0-1
84Baylor0-1
84South Alabama0-1
84Arkansas State0-1
84Middle Tennessee0-1
84UNLV0-1
84West Virginia0-1
84Texas A&M0-1
84Georgia Tech0-1
126UMass0-2