2018-11-30

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 13, Thursday

New Orleans over Kansas City

New Orleans had a chance to be the first team to clinch a playoff spot, but couldn't pull out a win against Dallas. Now they'll probably lose that honor to LA, although nothing's for sure until it happens.

Down in nearly-eliminated land, the Dallas win had the effect of lowers Arizona's playoff chances, because that's one more team than Arizona can only tie at 7-9, not beat without a tiebreaker. So, with their odds lowering significantly, they also never won the Super Bowl in today's simulations, despite there being 2 billion of them again. Oakland is also showing as 0.000000% likely to make the playoffs when rounded, which translates to less than 10 playoff appearances in the 2 billion combinations.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO10-20.72098.9099.9794.1959.1235.1621.08
LAR10-10.65699.99100.0095.0953.6625.3813.35
CHI8-30.68992.1798.9476.4640.7022.2612.54
KC9-20.65485.7499.7588.2547.1425.3712.27
LAC8-30.66214.2591.0355.8029.9816.318.04
NE8-30.60698.4398.9777.1336.9317.177.44
HOU8-30.60585.6696.2265.7731.1614.506.26
PIT7-3-10.61980.3090.3152.6226.0212.645.65
BAL6-50.65318.6759.8633.2317.419.154.41
DAL7-50.55867.7076.7338.6914.125.402.29
SEA6-50.5660.0167.5832.2012.034.762.05
IND6-50.58913.4541.8220.019.074.111.71
MIN6-4-10.5397.7060.3026.949.363.471.41
WAS6-50.47925.0452.1020.015.921.870.65
CAR6-50.5091.1025.189.623.181.110.42
DEN5-60.5000.007.983.071.130.420.14
PHI5-60.4517.269.103.420.920.270.09
GB4-6-10.4940.136.172.230.690.230.08
TEN5-60.4310.894.331.390.420.130.04
ATL4-70.452-2.390.740.200.060.02
MIA5-60.3811.474.431.200.310.080.02
CIN5-60.3850.933.801.050.280.080.02
CLE4-6-10.4420.111.340.440.140.040.01
DET4-70.4060.001.000.270.060.020.00
TB4-70.428-0.540.150.040.010.00
BUF4-70.2720.100.150.030.000.000.00
JAC3-80.3940.000.020.000.000.000.00
NYG3-80.4010.000.000.000.000.000.00
NYJ3-80.380-0.010.000.000.000.00
SF2-90.397-0.000.000.000.000.00
OAK2-90.263-0.00----
ARI2-90.243-0.000.000.000.00-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City

2018-11-27

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 12, Final

New Orleans over Kansas City

Houston raised their chances a little and Tennessee lost some ground, but in general things remained the same as Sunday. Also, I didn't notice that yesterday I showed no chance of Oakland winning any of their potential playoff games. A team's chances of winning any game never fall to zero, but since I run full simulations based on probabilities, a bad enough team may show 0 Super Bowl wins. This time of year I try to run over 2 billion simulations each time to avoid that, but Oakland still only managed to win at most one playoff game in any given simulation.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO10-10.71199.5099.9996.8461.9235.7621.03
LAR10-10.65699.99100.0094.6252.3725.3613.34
KC9-20.65485.7499.7588.2847.1525.3812.39
CHI8-30.68992.1799.1474.2039.9521.8812.33
LAC8-30.66314.2591.0255.8129.9916.328.11
NE8-30.60698.4398.9777.0736.9017.167.51
HOU8-30.60585.5696.1865.6431.1014.476.31
PIT7-3-10.61980.5190.4152.7926.1012.685.72
BAL6-50.65318.4759.7933.2017.399.144.44
SEA6-50.5660.0170.3834.5012.815.162.23
IND6-50.58913.5541.9420.069.104.121.73
DAL6-50.54950.8357.8328.4110.163.851.60
MIN6-4-10.5397.7063.4828.9610.053.791.54
WAS6-50.47938.1656.3822.556.672.130.74
CAR6-50.5090.5028.5311.123.611.290.48
DEN5-60.5000.007.963.061.130.410.14
PHI5-60.45011.0012.344.761.290.380.12
GB4-6-10.4940.137.112.600.790.280.10
TEN5-60.4310.884.301.380.420.130.04
ATL4-70.452-2.840.890.240.080.02
MIA5-60.3811.474.401.190.310.080.02
CIN5-60.3850.913.781.040.280.070.02
CLE4-6-10.4420.111.330.440.140.040.01
DET4-70.4060.001.250.340.080.020.01
TB4-70.428-0.710.200.050.020.00
BUF4-70.2720.100.150.030.000.000.00
JAC3-80.3940.000.020.000.000.000.00
NYG3-80.4010.010.020.010.000.000.00
NYJ3-80.380-0.010.000.000.000.00
SF2-90.397-0.000.000.000.000.00
ARI2-90.243-0.000.000.000.000.00
OAK2-90.262-0.000.000.00--

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City

2018-11-26

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 12, Sunday

New Orleans over Kansas City

The projection remains the same this Sunday, and the only elimination is the New York Jets from the AFC East. That's because at best they could tie New England in record and head to head, but would lose on the divisional record tiebreaker, since they are already 0-4 and could at best reach 2-4, compared against New England's 3-0 which will be at worst 3-3. No one has officially clinched a playoff spot, and I don't expect that to change after Monday's game featuring 2 AFC South teams, Houston and Tennessee.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO10-10.71199.5099.9996.8461.9235.7621.12
LAR10-10.65699.99100.0094.6252.3725.3613.41
KC9-20.65485.7499.7689.7048.4726.3512.86
CHI8-30.68992.1799.1574.2139.9621.8812.39
LAC8-30.66314.2591.1757.2630.9617.008.45
NE8-30.60698.4398.9579.6838.9118.187.95
PIT7-3-10.61980.5190.2155.1627.6713.526.10
BAL6-50.65318.4859.3734.0417.909.474.61
HOU7-30.57271.8786.4551.9522.849.883.99
SEA6-50.5660.0170.4034.5112.825.162.24
IND6-50.58920.4342.6020.889.504.331.82
DAL6-50.54951.4058.2028.6010.223.881.62
MIN6-4-10.5397.7063.6129.0110.073.801.55
WAS6-50.47937.0855.1122.016.512.080.73
CAR6-50.5090.5028.6211.153.621.290.49
TEN5-50.4727.7014.555.601.910.650.20
DEN5-60.5000.007.432.971.090.410.14
PHI5-60.45111.5012.914.981.350.400.13
GB4-6-10.4940.137.152.610.790.280.10
ATL4-70.452-2.850.900.240.080.03
MIA5-60.3811.474.371.230.320.090.02
CIN5-60.3850.903.631.040.280.080.02
CLE4-6-10.4420.111.340.460.140.050.01
DET4-70.4060.001.270.350.080.020.01
TB4-70.428-0.710.200.050.020.00
BUF4-70.2720.100.150.030.000.000.00
NYG3-80.4010.010.020.000.000.000.00
JAC3-80.3940.000.010.000.000.000.00
NYJ3-80.380-0.000.000.000.000.00
SF2-90.397-0.000.000.000.000.00
ARI2-90.243-0.000.000.000.000.00
OAK2-90.262-0.000.00---

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City

2018-11-25

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 13

Once again, Clemson remains #1, and in fact my top 4 stayed in place. #3 and #4 will face off next week for the SEC, which I would think will knock one of them down, but of course it depends what the others teams do, too. I've got UCF up to #6. If my rankings were the ones determining the playoff seedings, they'd have been really motivated to find a way to reschedule that UNC game that was canceled earlier this year. Notre Dame will also suffer for not having a conference title game to play in next week (assuming they would have won it, of course).

Missouri shut out Arkansas with a 38-0 win (though remember, all wins count the same in my system, set up following the old BCS rules), but only boosted themselves up 2 spots to #28.

UTEP lost again and remains #129. No teams in that neighborhood have any games remaining, so I award them worst team of the year. I suppose some schedule strength changes could still happen and drag down Central Michigan below them, but it doesn't seem too likely.

1Clemson12-0
2Notre Dame12-0
3Alabama12-0
4Georgia11-1
5Oklahoma11-1
6UCF11-0
7Ohio State11-1
8Michigan10-2
9Washington State10-2
10Boise State10-2
11Cincinnati10-2
12Fresno State10-2
13Utah9-3
14Florida9-3
15Kentucky9-3
16Washington9-3
17LSU9-3
18Army9-2
19Buffalo10-2
20Utah State10-2
21Penn State9-3
22Syracuse9-3
23Texas9-3
24Appalachian State9-2
25Texas A&M8-4
26Troy9-3
27Georgia Southern9-3
28Missouri8-4
29Mississippi State8-4
30NC State8-3
31Iowa8-4
32UAB9-3
33West Virginia8-3
34Northwestern8-4
35North Texas9-3
36Stanford7-4
37Temple8-4
38Marshall8-3
39Oregon8-4
40Arkansas State8-4
41Middle Tennessee8-4
42Pittsburgh7-5
43Hawai'i8-5
44Ohio8-4
45Duke7-5
46Auburn7-5
47Iowa State7-4
48Boston College7-5
49Georgia Tech7-5
50Miami7-5
51Memphis8-4
52Michigan State7-5
53Houston8-4
54South Carolina6-5
55Florida Intl8-4
56Arizona State7-5
57Northern Illinois7-5
58California7-4
59Virginia7-5
60Louisiana7-5
61San Diego State7-5
62Eastern Michigan7-5
63South Florida7-5
64Wisconsin7-5
65Vanderbilt6-6
66Purdue6-6
67Nevada7-5
68Western Michigan7-5
69Wake Forest6-6
70BYU6-6
71TCU6-6
72Toledo7-5
73Louisiana Tech7-5
74Tulane6-6
75Minnesota6-6
76Oklahoma State6-6
77Baylor6-6
78Wyoming6-6
79Miami (OH)6-6
80Tennessee5-7
81Florida State5-7
82UL Monroe6-6
83Southern Mississippi6-5
84Indiana5-7
85Texas Tech5-7
86Virginia Tech5-6
87Maryland5-7
88USC5-7
89Coastal Carolina5-7
90Florida Atlantic5-7
91Kansas State5-7
92Ole Miss5-7
93Arizona5-7
94Air Force5-7
95SMU5-7
96Colorado5-7
97Charlotte5-7
98Nebraska4-8
99UMass4-8
100UCLA3-9
101Akron4-7
102Illinois4-8
103UNLV4-8
104Ball State4-8
105Navy3-9
106East Carolina3-8
107Old Dominion4-8
108South Alabama3-9
109Kansas3-9
110New Mexico3-9
111Louisville2-10
112Tulsa3-9
113Colorado State3-9
114Bowling Green3-9
115Georgia State2-10
116UTSA3-9
117New Mexico State3-9
118Western Kentucky3-9
119North Carolina2-9
120Oregon State2-10
121Arkansas2-10
122Texas State3-9
123San Jose State1-11
124Rice2-11
125Kent State2-10
126UConn1-11
127Rutgers1-11
128Central Michigan1-11
129UTEP1-11

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford
Week 5 Notre Dame
Week 6 Notre Dame
Week 7 Notre Dame
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Clemson
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson

2018-11-23

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 12, Thursday

New Orleans over Kansas City

I had a little downtime on thanksgiving, so I ran my numbers after Chicago beat Detroit in the first game of the day, and Chicago had taken over as the strongest team in the league with a .689, just ahead of New Orleans' .688. But, with a big win over Atlanta, New Orleans jumped ahead again, and remains the Super Bowl favorite. We had a few divisional eliminations, both by virtue of New Orleans 10-1 record. Tampa and Atlanta's 7 losses each mean neither can catch them now. Los Angeles, also at 10-1, could be the first team to clinch a playoff spot this weekend, and they're on bye. If Seattle loses, the head-to-head sweep tiebreaker mean that LA wins the NFC West. If they don't clinch this weekend, I might have to spend some time to try to construct the rare scenario in which they don't make the playoffs with 10 wins. That's only happened 6 times since 2002 when we've had 32 teams, or a total of 8 times since 1990 when the playoffs were expanded to 12 teams, but it has also happened once in that time frame with an 11-win team, New England in 2008.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO10-10.71198.5499.9996.9262.6136.1721.90
KC9-20.65491.2499.8091.7952.6829.5814.44
LAR10-10.65699.99100.0094.4752.4425.4713.86
CHI8-30.68993.8499.0874.6340.3622.1212.86
PIT7-2-10.62790.8296.1873.6239.6220.339.35
NE7-30.58093.6196.1168.2132.0514.636.02
LAC7-30.6038.7584.6347.9323.0211.374.95
HOU7-30.57275.5887.8055.1325.0811.304.56
BAL5-50.6217.0351.4128.3914.147.253.29
DAL6-50.54954.4061.6631.3011.184.241.84
IND5-50.58316.3134.9317.608.013.761.56
SEA5-50.5610.0146.9922.278.153.271.46
CAR6-40.5151.4652.6423.057.542.691.07
MIN5-4-10.5244.6744.4719.196.402.350.96
WAS6-50.47937.9058.0323.907.072.260.83
GB4-5-10.5081.4923.069.172.911.040.41
TEN5-50.4728.0214.966.002.090.750.24
CIN5-50.4092.1314.164.751.390.430.11
PHI4-60.4447.438.423.320.880.250.08
MIA5-50.3866.0314.374.461.210.350.08
DEN4-60.4860.004.001.580.570.210.07
ATL4-70.452-3.561.160.310.100.03
DET4-70.4060.001.340.380.090.020.01
CLE3-6-10.4130.020.760.250.070.020.01
NYJ3-70.4080.240.370.120.030.010.00
JAC3-70.4000.100.370.120.030.010.00
NYG3-70.4070.270.380.130.030.010.00
TB3-70.404-0.350.100.020.010.00
SF2-80.432-0.030.010.000.000.00
BUF3-70.2730.130.160.030.010.000.00
ARI2-80.290-0.010.000.000.000.00
OAK2-80.288-0.000.000.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City

2018-11-20

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 11, Final

New Orleans over Kansas City

LA beat Kansas City in a crazy game that would have been my projected Super Bowl pairing if not for New Orleans' blowout Sunday, but New Orleans' new extraordinarily high strength is keeping them favored to win the NFC. Curiously enough, 10 wins still doesn't clinch a playoff berth for Los Angeles, but they did cross the 99.999% threshold now, making the playoffs in 99.999855% of the simulations I did.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO9-10.68897.0599.9295.1559.1133.3019.32
LAR10-10.65699.99100.0095.9355.4828.1315.31
KC9-20.65491.2499.8091.7552.6729.5614.96
CHI7-30.67389.4997.3271.5838.0020.8511.74
PIT7-2-10.62791.2296.3374.0439.8520.459.76
NE7-30.58093.6196.1368.1031.9814.606.25
LAC7-30.6038.7584.6647.9523.0211.375.15
HOU7-30.57275.5287.8455.0525.0311.284.75
BAL5-50.6216.6850.7928.0213.957.153.37
IND5-50.58316.5535.4817.888.133.821.65
SEA5-50.5610.0147.2722.888.783.651.63
WAS6-40.49864.4175.7234.8611.413.961.52
CAR6-40.5152.9153.4124.118.303.071.23
MIN5-4-10.5247.3544.6219.816.942.651.08
DAL5-50.53128.9638.4418.536.612.521.05
GB4-5-10.5082.5922.819.463.161.170.46
TEN5-50.4727.8414.725.902.050.740.24
ATL4-60.4770.048.453.231.000.340.12
CIN5-50.4092.0914.224.761.400.430.12
MIA5-50.3866.0314.354.451.210.340.09
PHI4-60.4446.427.432.940.820.250.08
DEN4-60.4860.004.021.590.570.220.07
DET4-60.4210.583.881.290.330.100.03
CLE3-6-10.4130.020.760.250.070.020.01
NYJ3-70.4080.240.370.120.030.010.00
JAC3-70.4000.090.360.110.030.010.00
NYG3-70.4070.210.330.110.030.010.00
TB3-70.4040.000.380.110.030.010.00
SF2-80.432-0.030.010.000.000.00
BUF3-70.2730.120.150.030.010.000.00
ARI2-80.290-0.010.000.000.000.00
OAK2-80.288-0.000.000.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City

2018-11-19

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 11, Sunday

New Orleans over Kansas City

For the first time all season, LA is not the favorite to win the NFC. We'll see if they can recapture the spot after Monday night's game, although I'd say this is still a fair comparison now because both teams have played 10 games. LA also passed the 99.99% mark for making the playoffs, something they were slightly below last week, though at one point my chart rounded them up from 99.985%+. We still only have 3 eliminations from divisions. Sometime next week we'll probably see the eliminations start happening quickly.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO9-10.68897.0499.9295.7259.8033.1519.06
KC9-10.66594.8199.9095.1655.7831.9316.38
LAR9-10.66099.9399.9992.7852.5626.8914.62
CHI7-30.68390.7797.6874.8041.1622.8413.00
PIT7-2-10.62791.3096.3573.5139.5519.959.43
NE7-30.57993.6096.1567.2931.4514.135.99
LAC7-30.6035.1984.4946.5321.8810.734.81
HOU7-30.57275.5187.8654.4324.5910.924.55
BAL5-50.6216.5850.3927.7713.516.893.21
IND5-50.58316.5435.5317.927.983.721.59
SEA5-50.5610.0747.8022.988.713.591.58
WAS6-40.49864.4175.8735.4511.513.941.50
CAR6-40.5152.9253.8724.218.233.021.19
DAL5-50.53128.9738.6618.676.592.481.02
MIN5-4-10.5126.2742.3418.156.102.240.88
GB4-5-10.5082.4123.149.503.141.150.45
TEN5-50.4727.8614.775.932.020.720.23
ATL4-60.4770.048.603.250.990.340.12
CIN5-50.4092.1014.304.811.370.420.11
MIA5-50.3866.0414.544.521.190.340.09
PHI4-60.4446.427.462.970.820.240.08
DEN4-60.4860.004.051.610.550.210.07
DET4-60.4210.543.911.280.330.100.03
CLE3-6-10.4130.020.770.250.070.020.01
NYJ3-70.4080.230.370.120.030.010.00
JAC3-70.4000.090.370.120.030.010.00
TB3-70.4040.000.390.120.030.010.00
NYG3-70.4070.200.330.110.030.010.00
SF2-80.432-0.030.010.000.000.00
BUF3-70.2730.120.150.030.010.000.00
ARI2-80.290-0.010.000.000.000.00
OAK2-80.288-0.000.000.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams

2018-11-18

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 12

Clemson has a stranglehold on #1, and Alabama actually lost ground to fall back to #3. UCF is making their case again this year, and I have them up to #7. We've got one more week of scheduled games, then conference championships, before the final playoff field is set. I doubt the committee will put UCF in even if they reach 12-0, but I'm curious if they'll be able to at least reach #4 in my rankings.

Missouri beat Tennessee 50-17, and is all the way up to #30. That's no consolation for the hardcore Mizzou fans because of the close game they could have won. Still, 7-4 is a decent record going into the last week before bowl selection.

UTEP lost again and remains #129.

1Clemson11-0
2Notre Dame11-0
3Alabama11-0
4Georgia10-1
5Michigan10-1
6Oklahoma10-1
7UCF10-0
8Washington State10-1
9Ohio State10-1
10LSU9-2
11Army9-2
12Utah State10-1
13Boise State9-2
14Cincinnati9-2
15Fresno State9-2
16Troy9-2
17Florida8-3
18Kentucky8-3
19Utah8-3
20Buffalo9-2
21Penn State8-3
22Washington8-3
23UAB9-2
24West Virginia8-2
25Texas8-3
26Syracuse8-3
27Georgia Southern8-3
28Appalachian State8-2
29Texas A&M7-4
30Missouri7-4
31Mississippi State7-4
32NC State7-3
33Pittsburgh7-4
34Duke7-4
35Iowa7-4
36Northwestern7-4
37Auburn7-4
38Temple7-4
39North Texas8-3
40Georgia Tech7-4
41Houston8-3
42Boston College7-4
43Virginia7-4
44Stanford6-4
45Oregon7-4
46South Carolina6-4
47Northern Illinois7-4
48Arkansas State7-4
49Wisconsin7-4
50Florida Intl8-3
51Ohio7-4
52South Florida7-4
53Nevada7-4
54San Diego State7-4
55Marshall7-3
56Louisiana Tech7-4
57Iowa State6-4
58Hawai'i7-5
59Middle Tennessee7-4
60Michigan State6-5
61BYU6-5
62Miami6-5
63Oklahoma State6-5
64California6-4
65Eastern Michigan6-5
66Memphis7-4
67Arizona State6-5
68Louisiana6-5
69Tennessee5-6
70UL Monroe6-5
71Toledo6-5
72Vanderbilt5-6
73Florida State5-6
74Purdue5-6
75Coastal Carolina5-6
76Wake Forest5-6
77Texas Tech5-6
78TCU5-6
79Western Michigan6-5
80Indiana5-6
81Tulane5-6
82Baylor5-6
83Wyoming5-6
84Florida Atlantic5-6
85Maryland5-6
86Kansas State5-6
87Minnesota5-6
88Miami (OH)5-6
89Ole Miss5-6
90USC5-6
91SMU5-6
92Southern Mississippi5-5
93Arizona5-6
94Colorado5-6
95Nebraska4-7
96Virginia Tech4-6
97Air Force4-7
98UMass4-8
99UCLA3-8
100Akron4-6
101Illinois4-7
102Charlotte4-7
103Ball State4-7
104Old Dominion4-7
105Navy3-8
106East Carolina3-7
107New Mexico3-8
108Kansas3-8
109Colorado State3-8
110Louisville2-9
111New Mexico State3-8
112Bowling Green3-8
113UNLV3-8
114Georgia State2-9
115UTSA3-8
116North Carolina2-8
117Oregon State2-9
118South Alabama2-9
119Texas State3-8
120Arkansas2-9
121Tulsa2-9
122Kent State2-9
123San Jose State1-10
124Western Kentucky2-9
125Rutgers1-10
126UConn1-10
127Central Michigan1-10
128Rice1-11
129UTEP1-10

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford
Week 5 Notre Dame
Week 6 Notre Dame
Week 7 Notre Dame
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Clemson
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson

2018-11-16

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams

Seattle beat Green Bay on Thursday, doubling their chances at the NFC West from .04% to .08%. LA has it pretty well locked up at 9-1. They did manage to move from a 25% to 38% chance of making the playoffs, though. At 5-5, they'll have to win a few more games and won't be able to back in, but it's attainable. Green Bay moved the opposite direction, down to 18% from 31% for the playoffs, and bumped up both Chicago and Minnesota's chances of winning the NFC North.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC9-10.66587.5899.9093.6555.5832.3017.52
LAR9-10.66099.9299.9894.2555.7030.8816.95
NO8-10.63887.2198.9589.4750.8426.0813.69
CHI6-30.66176.6691.1767.3337.0820.6611.37
PIT6-2-10.61686.5692.8869.5536.8618.298.97
NE7-30.57993.4795.8969.2433.1715.056.81
LAC7-20.60412.4292.1555.0226.3613.156.28
HOU6-30.56757.9677.3445.6020.549.184.04
BAL4-50.6157.2437.3920.7410.045.102.49
CAR6-30.51612.1667.1133.8012.824.992.01
WAS6-30.50266.3874.5736.6813.264.951.93
TEN5-40.54532.4945.2823.5910.004.271.79
MIN5-3-10.53419.1951.7124.659.694.011.68
SEA5-50.5610.0838.3718.667.683.371.50
DAL4-50.52417.4622.7110.814.091.620.67
PHI4-50.53416.0919.239.323.611.460.61
IND4-50.5369.2016.917.783.141.330.55
GB4-5-10.5083.7818.047.692.801.100.43
ATL4-50.4830.6115.436.412.180.800.30
CIN5-40.4166.1523.818.692.590.810.24
MIA5-50.3866.2114.094.571.230.360.10
DEN3-60.4840.001.840.740.260.100.04
DET3-60.4210.381.480.510.150.050.01
JAC3-60.4100.361.170.400.110.040.01
TB3-60.4070.031.100.360.100.030.01
CLE3-6-10.4130.050.850.280.080.030.01
NYJ3-70.4080.210.330.110.030.010.00
NYG2-70.3970.070.100.030.010.000.00
BUF3-70.2730.120.160.030.010.000.00
SF2-80.432-0.020.010.000.000.00
ARI2-70.298-0.030.010.000.000.00
OAK1-80.294-0.000.000.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams

2018-11-13

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 10, Final

Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams

San Francisco lost, so they're now definitely eliminated from winning the NFC West. The Giants are hanging on by a thread at 2-7. I hadn't really been paying attention to the schedule, nor did I catch on that the NFC West teams were playing the AFC West, so I didn't realize that my projected Super Bowl matchup is going to happen next Monday. I'll be interested to see if both teams are still projected conference winners after one gets a loss.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC9-10.66587.6399.9093.6755.6032.3117.54
LAR9-10.66099.9699.9994.2855.8531.0017.01
NO8-10.63887.1798.9989.5251.0026.1913.74
CHI6-30.66174.0090.5967.0436.9420.6011.34
PIT6-2-10.61686.5692.8869.5536.8618.298.98
NE7-30.57993.4795.9069.2433.1715.056.82
LAC7-20.60412.3792.1454.9926.3513.146.28
HOU6-30.56757.9677.3445.6020.549.184.05
BAL4-50.6157.2437.3920.7410.045.102.50
CAR6-30.51612.2067.2533.9912.915.032.02
WAS6-30.50266.3774.5636.7713.304.981.94
TEN5-40.54532.4945.2823.5910.004.271.79
MIN5-3-10.53418.2551.6124.729.714.021.68
SEA4-50.5560.0425.7112.325.002.170.96
GB4-4-10.5147.4331.2313.835.122.020.81
DAL4-50.52417.4622.8610.914.131.640.67
PHI4-50.53416.1019.309.383.631.470.62
IND4-50.5369.2016.917.783.141.330.55
ATL4-50.4830.6015.196.332.150.790.29
CIN5-40.4166.1523.818.692.590.810.24
MIA5-50.3866.2114.104.571.230.360.10
DEN3-60.4840.001.830.740.250.100.04
DET3-60.4210.331.500.530.150.050.02
JAC3-60.4100.361.170.400.110.040.01
TB3-60.4070.031.070.350.100.030.01
CLE3-6-10.4130.050.850.280.080.030.01
NYJ3-70.4080.200.330.110.030.010.00
NYG2-70.3970.070.100.030.010.000.00
BUF3-70.2730.120.160.030.010.000.00
SF2-80.432-0.010.000.000.000.00
ARI2-70.298-0.030.010.000.000.00
OAK1-80.294-0.000.000.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams