Superbowl 50 Projection, Championship Sunday

Carolina over Denver

I've kept all 12 playoff teams in the grid below so you can see just how unlikely Denver's win in the AFC was. They did have a bye to advance them one round, and homefield advantage in the next two rounds, but they beat a better Pittsburgh and New England team in two consecutive weeks.

Carolina has been the strongest team for most of the year, trading spots with Arizona from time to time. Their appearance is thus much less surprising. They've jumped out to a big lead in both playoff games so far, and I feel like their 71.2% chances to beat Denver are probably about right.

Earlier this season, in a tongue-in-cheek post, I declared I had already submitted the winning entry to a Superbowl contest. I picked Carolina over New England. I'm actually reasonably close to winning, because the only other contestant to pick Carolina also picked them to beat New England, so I just need a 57.5 Over/Under to hit the Over. So, if they win, I'll be hoping Carolina can repeat their 49-point performance from this week. But, I think I'll be rooting for Peyton Manning to go out with a Superbowl win, partially because I'm a fan, and partially because I think he may be too stubborn to retire if he loses.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CAR	15-1	0.810	++	++	++	++	++	71.20
ARI	13-3	0.792	++	++	++	++	-	-
CIN	12-4	0.771	++	++	-	-	-	-
SEA	10-6	0.768	-	++	++	-	-	-
NE	12-4	0.762	++	++	++	++	-	-
KC	11-5	0.737	-	++	++	-	-	-
PIT	10-6	0.699	-	++	++	-	-	-
MIN	11-5	0.638	++	++	-	-	-	-
DEN	12-4	0.633	++	++	++	++	++	28.80
GB	10-6	0.596	-	++	++	-	-	-
HOU	9-7	0.559	++	++	-	-	-	-
WAS	9-7	0.518	++	++	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 16, Sunday)

First to 30% chance of Superbowl Win: Carolina (Divisional Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 9, Thursday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 11, Final)

First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Carolina (Week 14, Sunday)

First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: Carolina, Denver (Week 17, Final)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Miami (Week 11, Final)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Saturday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Thursday]
[Week 16, Saturday]
[Week 16, Sunday]
[Week 16, Final]
[Week 17, Final]
[Wildcard Saturday]
[Wildcard Sunday]
[Divisional Saturday]
[Divisional Sunday]