Superbowl 50 Projection, Wildcard Saturday

Carolina over New England

Welcome to a morning edition of your Superbowl 50 Projections, so I can take care of Saturday's action before Sunday's games are over.

In the early game, I picked Kansas City with 69% certainty over Houston, though I don't think I would have wagered on a 30-0 shutout. I should mention as always those projections don't take homefield into account, and they are based on an average of the team for the whole season, not the current injury list. That's important in the second game, where Cincinnati was the favorite at 59%. But that's based on the full season with Andy Dalton at QB for most of it. If I had a way to account for injuries, I'd say starting QB would probably be a pretty big one. I was rooting for Pittsburgh in spite of my numbers, so I'm happy with both outcomes from yesterday.

Now for my favorites in Sunday's games

Seattle at Minnesota:
I'll be rooting for Seattle in this one I think, though I wouldn't mind much if Minnesota makes the next round. I don't feel too strongly either way. Seattle is favored at 65%, again with the caveat that they'll be on the road, so that should come down a little.

Green Bay at Washingon:
Green Bay's one of those teams I've liked for a long time, before the Rams came to St. Louis, so I tend to root for them. They're also on the road and favored, which I think has been the case for the Vegas lines in all 4 games this weekend.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CAR	15-1	0.810	+	+	+	63.38	37.20	23.08
ARI	13-3	0.792	+	+	+	72.35	36.96	21.93
SEA	10-6	0.768	-	+	65.20	28.47	15.05	8.42
NE	12-4	0.762	+	+	+	53.36	32.53	15.51
KC	11-5	0.737	-	+	+	46.64	26.93	11.96
PIT	10-6	0.699	-	+	+	57.45	25.05	10.02
MIN	11-5	0.638	+	+	34.80	11.03	3.95	1.60
DEN	12-4	0.633	+	+	+	42.55	15.50	5.15
GB	10-6	0.596	-	+	57.93	15.77	4.70	1.71
WAS	9-7	0.518	+	+	42.07	8.99	2.13	0.63

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 16, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 9, Thursday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 11, Final)

First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Carolina (Week 14, Sunday)

First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: Carolina, Denver (Week 17, Final)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Miami (Week 11, Final)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Saturday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Thursday]
[Week 16, Saturday]
[Week 16, Sunday]
[Week 16, Final]
[Week 17, Final]