Tenets of Wilson: 2020-10

2020-10-30

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 8, Thursday

Kansas City over Tampa Bay

I should really start tracking the combined records of teams we're forced to watch in primetime with no competition. And yes I acknowledge I could just not watch football, but what's the fun in that? Thursday's teams were 1-6 Atlanta vs 3-4 Carolina. 4-10 is not a good football team. Usually that means very little will change as a result of the game, and this week was no exception. Atlanta pulled off the upset, and gave their division rival Tampa Bay a slight boost in chances to win the NFC South, but they were already pretty far ahead of these two teams, and remain only 1 win ahead of New Orleans.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	6-1	0.625	91.67	97.88	70.55	39.89	21.62	11.92
PIT	6-0	0.611	56.17	97.58	70.86	38.63	20.27	10.87
TB	5-2	0.631	70.69	85.88	58.93	34.68	19.94	10.75
BAL	5-1	0.628	39.68	93.49	62.39	34.93	19.14	10.62
LAR	5-2	0.608	26.17	74.97	49.73	27.46	14.98	7.72
ARI	5-2	0.603	35.22	77.00	49.60	27.13	14.62	7.46
GB	5-1	0.560	63.76	85.23	54.15	27.24	13.23	6.17
TEN	5-1	0.558	63.33	87.16	47.30	22.15	10.27	4.95
SEA	5-1	0.547	27.13	73.81	45.07	21.68	10.29	4.67
IND	4-2	0.584	36.40	68.62	37.42	18.45	9.12	4.64
SF	4-3	0.591	11.48	51.83	31.15	16.42	8.59	4.28
MIA	3-3	0.592	36.29	58.83	31.52	15.66	7.90	4.09
CHI	5-2	0.495	31.85	68.30	35.38	15.15	6.34	2.56
NO	4-2	0.510	27.44	54.31	27.16	12.14	5.32	2.22
BUF	5-2	0.492	56.90	69.80	29.77	11.85	4.74	1.98
CLE	5-2	0.467	4.15	63.84	26.19	9.63	3.62	1.42
PHI	2-4-1	0.439	46.35	46.45	17.43	6.41	2.34	0.82
DET	3-3	0.484	3.90	19.82	9.01	3.76	1.56	0.61
LAC	2-4	0.490	2.40	18.83	7.72	3.02	1.22	0.51
LV	3-3	0.460	5.13	24.03	9.24	3.37	1.26	0.49
WAS	2-5	0.430	27.52	27.73	10.14	3.64	1.29	0.44
DAL	2-5	0.399	20.12	20.20	6.81	2.25	0.74	0.23
NE	2-4	0.439	6.80	11.68	4.23	1.46	0.52	0.19
CAR	3-5	0.471	1.10	5.25	2.19	0.90	0.36	0.14
DEN	2-4	0.424	0.80	6.06	2.07	0.68	0.23	0.08
NYG	1-6	0.391	6.01	6.03	1.99	0.65	0.21	0.06
MIN	1-5	0.440	0.49	2.17	0.83	0.31	0.12	0.04
ATL	2-6	0.473	0.77	1.01	0.41	0.18	0.07	0.03
CIN	1-5-1	0.443	0.01	1.05	0.38	0.13	0.05	0.02
HOU	1-6	0.414	0.21	0.89	0.29	0.09	0.03	0.01
JAC	1-6	0.390	0.06	0.24	0.07	0.02	0.01	0.00
NYJ	0-7	0.309	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay

2020-10-27

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 7, Final

Kansas City over Tampa Bay

We had a pretty good matchup Monday, with Chicago and LA coming into the game a combined 9-3, and of course exiting a combined 10-4. LA was behind in record but ahead in strength, and won the game to put both teams at 5-2. Chicago actually has a negative point differential now, so one would expect them to be a bit below .500. Buffalo and Cleveland are actually both 5-2 and even weaker. We'll see if those teams can maintain their luck long enough to sneak into the playoffs.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	6-1	0.625	91.57	97.86	70.52	39.87	21.61	11.93
PIT	6-0	0.611	56.18	97.57	70.87	38.64	20.28	10.88
TB	5-2	0.631	69.40	85.20	58.70	34.57	19.90	10.73
BAL	5-1	0.628	39.68	93.47	62.39	34.94	19.15	10.63
LAR	5-2	0.608	26.17	74.22	49.36	27.29	14.90	7.68
ARI	5-2	0.603	35.23	76.10	49.11	26.90	14.51	7.40
GB	5-1	0.560	63.57	84.51	53.64	27.02	13.13	6.13
TEN	5-1	0.558	63.32	87.14	47.28	22.15	10.27	4.96
IND	4-2	0.584	36.41	68.58	37.41	18.45	9.12	4.64
SEA	5-1	0.547	27.12	73.00	44.67	21.52	10.23	4.64
SF	4-3	0.591	11.48	50.80	30.62	16.15	8.46	4.21
MIA	3-3	0.592	36.30	58.80	31.51	15.66	7.89	4.09
CHI	5-2	0.495	32.06	67.78	35.19	15.09	6.33	2.55
NO	4-2	0.510	26.87	53.63	26.95	12.05	5.28	2.20
BUF	5-2	0.492	56.90	69.77	29.75	11.85	4.73	1.98
CLE	5-2	0.467	4.14	63.76	26.16	9.62	3.61	1.42
PHI	2-4-1	0.439	46.51	46.60	17.51	6.45	2.35	0.83
DET	3-3	0.484	3.88	19.07	8.69	3.63	1.51	0.59
LAC	2-4	0.490	2.43	18.97	7.78	3.05	1.23	0.51
LV	3-3	0.460	5.20	24.21	9.31	3.40	1.27	0.49
WAS	2-5	0.430	27.27	27.46	10.06	3.61	1.28	0.44
CAR	3-4	0.488	3.38	12.80	5.70	2.42	1.02	0.40
DAL	2-5	0.399	20.18	20.25	6.84	2.27	0.74	0.23
NE	2-4	0.439	6.80	11.66	4.22	1.46	0.52	0.19
DEN	2-4	0.424	0.80	6.02	2.05	0.68	0.23	0.08
NYG	1-6	0.391	6.04	6.05	2.00	0.65	0.21	0.06
MIN	1-5	0.440	0.49	2.07	0.79	0.29	0.11	0.04
CIN	1-5-1	0.443	0.01	1.05	0.38	0.13	0.05	0.02
ATL	1-6	0.461	0.35	0.45	0.18	0.07	0.03	0.01
HOU	1-6	0.414	0.21	0.89	0.29	0.09	0.03	0.01
JAC	1-6	0.390	0.06	0.24	0.07	0.02	0.01	0.00
NYJ	0-7	0.309	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 8

24 teams joined the season already in progress, bringing us to an even 100. That means we're still 30 teams short, but it's starting to feel like a real season. Except, of course, for the massive differential in games played. This post is a bit late this week because I had layers of confusion about which teams were added. At first I saw 23 new teams, but I forgot than my software does not like the accent in San José State. Once I fixed that, we were up to 24. But the fact that there were only 11 teams in the big pileups of ties meant that only those 22 teams came out of 1-0 vs 0-1 matchups. That's because the whole Big 10 and most of the Mountain West began play this week, but Air Force had already played a game. Long story short, #96 Rice also randomly started this week, after having several conference games scheduled. C-USA has sort of a microcosm of football as a whole, where teams have played very different numbers of games.

BYU and Clemson won again while SMU lost, solidifying them at #1 and #2. #4 Alabama and #5 Marshall are sneaking up though, both a win behind at 5-0

Missouri is up to #44 thanks to a win over #54 Kentucky. Everyone acted as though this was a big win for Missouri, but Kentucky really doesn't look all that good. I guess Missouri doesn't either, so it's a good win.

UL Monroe lost to hold tight onto last place, which is now #101. That feels much worse than last week's #77, even though both were last place.

1	BYU	6-0
2	Clemson	6-0
3	Miami	5-1
4	Alabama	5-0
5	Marshall	5-0
6	SMU	5-1
7	Coastal Carolina	5-0
8	Army	6-1
9	Liberty	6-0
10	Notre Dame	5-0
11	Louisiana	4-1
12	UAB	4-2
13	North Carolina	4-1
14	Oklahoma State	4-0
15	Cincinnati	4-0
16	UTSA	4-3
17	NC State	4-2
18	Kansas State	4-1
19	Boston College	4-2
20	Georgia	3-1
21	Memphis	3-1
T-22	Arkansas State	3-3
T-22	Iowa State	3-2
24	Virginia Tech	3-2
25	Appalachian State	3-1
T-26	Louisiana Tech	3-3
T-26	Wake Forest	3-2
28	Oklahoma	3-2
29	Texas A&M	3-1
30	UCF	3-2
31	Texas	3-2
32	Auburn	3-2
33	Troy	3-2
34	Pittsburgh	3-4
T-35	Navy	3-3
T-35	West Virginia	3-2
37	Houston	2-1
38	Georgia Southern	3-2
39	South Alabama	3-2
40	UTEP	3-3
41	Georgia State	2-2
42	Tulsa	2-1
43	Florida State	2-4
44	Missouri	2-2
45	Florida	2-1
T-46	Tennessee	2-3
T-46	Charlotte	2-2
48	Texas Tech	2-3
49	Louisville	2-4
50	Arkansas	2-2
51	Tulane	2-4
52	Georgia Tech	2-4
53	Western Kentucky	2-4
54	Kentucky	2-3
55	Florida Atlantic	1-1
56	South Carolina	2-3
57	North Texas	2-3
58	LSU	2-2
59	San Jose State	1-0
60	TCU	1-3
61	Air Force	1-1
T-62	Wisconsin	1-0
T-62	Ohio State	1-0
T-62	Indiana	1-0
T-62	Michigan	1-0
T-62	Rutgers	1-0
T-62	Purdue	1-0
T-62	Boise State	1-0
T-62	Nevada	1-0
T-62	Hawai'i	1-0
T-62	Northwestern	1-0
T-62	San Diego State	1-0
73	Virginia	1-4
74	Middle Tennessee	2-5
75	Temple	1-2
76	Baylor	1-2
77	Southern Mississippi	1-4
78	Ole Miss	1-4
79	Mississippi State	1-3
80	Syracuse	1-5
81	East Carolina	1-3
82	Texas State	1-6
83	Duke	1-5
84	UMass	0-1
T-85	Illinois	0-1
T-85	Nebraska	0-1
T-85	Penn State	0-1
T-85	Minnesota	0-1
T-85	Michigan State	0-1
T-85	Iowa	0-1
T-85	Utah State	0-1
T-85	Wyoming	0-1
T-85	Fresno State	0-1
T-85	Maryland	0-1
T-85	UNLV	0-1
96	Rice	0-1
97	South Florida	1-5
98	Florida International	0-3
99	Vanderbilt	0-3
100	Kansas	0-5
101	UL Monroe	0-6

2020 History and #1s
Week 1 UAB
Week 2 Army
Week 3 Miami
Week 4 Miami
Week 5 SMU
Week 6 BYU
Week 7 BYU

2020-10-26

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 7, Sunday

Kansas City over Tampa Bay

As often seems to happen, when the conference favorite has a bye week, they lose their position for a week. Baltimore had the week off, and Kansas City had a big win to retake the top AFC spot, which they had between week 3 and 5, on and off. Tampa Bay also had a pretty big win - a 25-point victory - to solidify their place atop the NFC.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	6-1	0.625	91.58	97.86	70.55	39.90	21.62	12.04
PIT	6-0	0.611	56.17	97.57	70.87	38.64	20.28	10.98
TB	5-2	0.631	70.24	85.86	58.42	34.52	20.09	10.84
BAL	5-1	0.628	39.68	93.46	62.39	34.94	19.14	10.72
ARI	5-2	0.603	39.37	77.58	49.26	27.22	14.83	7.56
GB	5-1	0.560	53.36	83.54	53.05	26.86	13.19	6.15
TEN	5-1	0.558	62.89	86.81	47.01	22.01	10.20	4.98
SEA	5-1	0.547	30.82	74.39	44.83	21.82	10.48	4.75
CHI	5-1	0.528	43.43	81.83	50.79	23.77	10.83	4.71
IND	4-2	0.584	36.84	68.63	37.44	18.47	9.13	4.69
LAR	4-2	0.578	16.90	56.97	34.13	17.77	9.16	4.44
SF	4-3	0.591	12.91	52.07	30.86	16.45	8.70	4.33
MIA	3-3	0.592	36.77	59.34	31.84	15.82	7.98	4.17
NO	4-2	0.510	26.05	53.16	26.47	11.93	5.29	2.21
BUF	5-2	0.492	56.34	69.49	29.64	11.80	4.71	2.00
CLE	5-2	0.467	4.14	63.69	26.13	9.60	3.61	1.44
PHI	2-4-1	0.439	46.51	46.61	17.79	6.57	2.42	0.85
DET	3-3	0.484	2.89	18.69	8.49	3.60	1.51	0.59
LAC	2-4	0.490	2.43	18.96	7.77	3.04	1.23	0.52
LV	3-3	0.460	5.20	24.15	9.28	3.39	1.27	0.50
WAS	2-5	0.430	27.27	27.47	10.22	3.68	1.32	0.45
CAR	3-4	0.488	3.36	13.20	5.81	2.50	1.06	0.42
DAL	2-5	0.399	20.18	20.26	6.95	2.31	0.77	0.24
NE	2-4	0.439	6.88	11.89	4.30	1.49	0.53	0.20
DEN	2-4	0.424	0.79	6.01	2.05	0.67	0.23	0.08
NYG	1-6	0.391	6.04	6.05	2.03	0.66	0.21	0.07
MIN	1-5	0.440	0.33	1.86	0.71	0.27	0.10	0.04
CIN	1-5-1	0.443	0.01	1.04	0.37	0.13	0.05	0.02
ATL	1-6	0.461	0.34	0.46	0.18	0.08	0.03	0.01
HOU	1-6	0.414	0.20	0.85	0.28	0.09	0.03	0.01
JAC	1-6	0.390	0.06	0.22	0.07	0.02	0.01	0.00
NYJ	0-7	0.309	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

2020-10-23

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 7, Thursday

Baltimore over Tampa Bay

The NFC East is really bad this year, and I can't imagine a matchup with less implications than the one we had Thursday night, where Philadelphia beat the New York Giants. Philadelphia bumped up one spot to now be ahead of Dallas in championship chances (a whopping 0.87%!), and the Giants fell one spot to be behind Atlanta (both at 0.06%), and pretty much nothing else changed. Philadelphia and Dallas are now close to tied at a bit over 41% each to win that terrible division, even though Philadelphia's most likely outcome in all my simulations is to finish with 6 wins.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	5-1	0.628	46.84	92.92	64.14	36.64	20.68	11.95
PIT	5-0	0.602	49.79	94.56	65.79	35.52	18.84	10.37
KC	5-1	0.586	75.08	91.90	58.83	30.63	15.51	8.28
TB	4-2	0.597	61.01	78.69	49.48	27.99	15.57	8.04
ARI	4-2	0.602	27.72	71.35	45.80	25.90	14.57	7.59
SEA	5-0	0.552	49.50	87.41	60.08	30.58	15.45	7.28
TEN	5-0	0.560	69.27	91.36	56.20	27.62	13.17	6.69
LAR	4-2	0.578	16.96	63.06	39.09	20.98	11.20	5.57
CHI	5-1	0.528	52.28	85.72	54.05	26.19	12.42	5.56
IND	4-2	0.584	30.17	67.41	37.89	19.29	9.76	5.19
GB	4-1	0.536	44.36	77.51	46.24	22.84	11.05	5.03
MIA	3-3	0.592	38.91	57.91	31.55	16.20	8.35	4.51
SF	3-3	0.537	5.82	36.12	19.47	9.55	4.67	2.13
NO	3-2	0.505	25.15	46.54	23.10	10.68	4.85	2.06
BUF	4-2	0.479	41.77	54.35	22.59	9.01	3.59	1.54
LV	3-2	0.498	16.85	40.39	17.84	7.45	3.11	1.39
CAR	3-3	0.494	12.47	30.91	14.51	6.54	2.90	1.20
CLE	4-2	0.461	3.29	46.45	19.23	7.23	2.76	1.13
NE	2-3	0.498	19.26	28.92	12.43	5.19	2.17	0.97
PHI	2-4-1	0.439	41.22	41.51	16.16	6.25	2.41	0.87
DAL	2-4	0.436	41.54	41.89	16.12	6.18	2.36	0.85
DET	2-3	0.483	2.84	16.92	7.86	3.43	1.49	0.60
DEN	2-3	0.477	6.10	18.04	7.40	2.92	1.17	0.50
LAC	1-4	0.470	1.97	9.64	3.88	1.49	0.59	0.25
WAS	1-5	0.396	12.21	12.42	4.30	1.48	0.51	0.16
ATL	1-5	0.464	1.37	2.27	0.94	0.40	0.17	0.06
NYG	1-6	0.391	5.02	5.06	1.73	0.59	0.20	0.06
CIN	1-4-1	0.445	0.07	3.08	1.16	0.42	0.16	0.06
MIN	1-5	0.440	0.52	2.64	1.06	0.42	0.16	0.06
HOU	1-5	0.439	0.41	2.06	0.76	0.27	0.10	0.04
JAC	1-5	0.403	0.15	0.90	0.30	0.10	0.03	0.01
NYJ	0-6	0.334	0.06	0.09	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00

2020-10-20

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 6, Final

Baltimore over Tampa Bay

Tampa took over the NFC lead from Seattle despite neither team playing on Monday night. What did happen was Arizona winning big over Dallas, making them the strongest team in the NFC West, even though they are a game and a half behind Seattle currently. That competition diminished their playoff chances just enough to push them just below Tampa Bay.
In the AFC, Kansas City played Buffalo, and inched their way closer to the top, tied at 5-1 with Baltimore. Thanks to the points scored and points allowed system I used, Baltimore is still the superior team.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	5-1	0.628	46.80	92.90	64.10	36.62	20.67	11.94
PIT	5-0	0.602	49.85	94.57	65.81	35.53	18.85	10.38
KC	5-1	0.586	75.09	91.91	58.84	30.64	15.51	8.28
TB	4-2	0.597	60.99	78.66	49.49	28.01	15.59	8.05
ARI	4-2	0.602	27.71	71.29	45.80	25.91	14.57	7.59
SEA	5-0	0.552	49.46	87.37	60.08	30.59	15.46	7.28
TEN	5-0	0.560	69.27	91.37	56.20	27.63	13.17	6.69
LAR	4-2	0.578	16.99	63.11	39.17	21.02	11.23	5.58
CHI	5-1	0.528	52.31	85.75	54.14	26.25	12.45	5.57
IND	4-2	0.584	30.17	67.43	37.90	19.29	9.76	5.19
GB	4-1	0.536	44.33	77.53	46.29	22.87	11.07	5.04
MIA	3-3	0.592	38.93	57.94	31.57	16.21	8.35	4.51
SF	3-3	0.537	5.84	36.20	19.53	9.58	4.68	2.13
NO	3-2	0.505	25.15	46.55	23.12	10.69	4.86	2.06
BUF	4-2	0.479	41.76	54.36	22.59	9.01	3.59	1.53
LV	3-2	0.498	16.84	40.40	17.84	7.45	3.12	1.39
CAR	3-3	0.494	12.48	30.94	14.53	6.55	2.91	1.20
CLE	4-2	0.461	3.28	46.35	19.19	7.21	2.75	1.13
NE	2-3	0.498	19.26	28.93	12.43	5.19	2.17	0.97
DAL	2-4	0.436	43.63	43.91	16.89	6.47	2.47	0.89
PHI	1-4-1	0.440	32.23	32.43	12.62	4.88	1.88	0.68
DET	2-3	0.483	2.84	16.93	7.88	3.44	1.50	0.60
DEN	2-3	0.477	6.09	18.05	7.40	2.92	1.17	0.50
LAC	1-4	0.470	1.98	9.65	3.88	1.49	0.59	0.25
WAS	1-5	0.396	13.03	13.21	4.57	1.58	0.54	0.17
NYG	1-5	0.395	11.11	11.19	3.88	1.34	0.46	0.15
ATL	1-5	0.464	1.37	2.27	0.94	0.40	0.17	0.06
CIN	1-4-1	0.445	0.07	3.06	1.16	0.42	0.16	0.06
MIN	1-5	0.440	0.52	2.65	1.07	0.42	0.16	0.06
HOU	1-5	0.439	0.41	2.06	0.76	0.27	0.10	0.04
JAC	1-5	0.403	0.15	0.91	0.30	0.10	0.03	0.01
NYJ	0-6	0.334	0.06	0.09	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00

2020-10-19

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 6, Sunday

Baltimore over Seattle

Green Bay, the Super Bowl favorite in the NFC, lost to Tampa, who is now the most likely NFC team to win the Super Bowl, yet not the team most likely to win the NFC. Seattle just barely edges them out because of their higher playoff chances at 5-0 vs Tampa's 4-2. Also, with Green Bay's loss we're now down to 3 undefeated teams, with Tennessee and Pittsburgh winning, and Seattle getting a week off. On the other end, there were 3 winless teams, and 2 - Atlanta and the New York Giants - won, leaving the New York Jets as the only winless team.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	5-1	0.628	46.91	92.27	64.34	36.99	21.06	12.32
PIT	5-0	0.602	49.59	94.03	65.97	35.83	19.18	10.70
TB	4-2	0.597	61.03	80.18	51.02	29.12	16.43	8.54
SEA	5-0	0.552	56.71	89.24	62.26	32.19	16.48	7.81
TEN	5-0	0.560	69.29	91.12	56.91	28.28	13.58	7.00
KC	4-1	0.568	65.45	83.65	49.29	24.68	12.09	6.33
LAR	4-2	0.578	20.71	67.21	42.01	22.81	12.35	6.18
CHI	5-1	0.528	52.33	87.09	54.95	26.91	12.97	5.84
IND	4-2	0.584	30.15	66.68	37.95	19.53	9.94	5.36
GB	4-1	0.536	44.34	79.18	47.31	23.58	11.59	5.31
MIA	3-3	0.592	32.31	57.05	31.53	16.33	8.46	4.63
ARI	3-2	0.553	15.50	51.09	28.83	14.81	7.59	3.60
BUF	4-1	0.495	51.87	66.83	30.54	12.83	5.33	2.40
SF	3-3	0.537	7.08	38.07	20.56	10.19	5.04	2.32
NO	3-2	0.505	25.15	48.89	24.46	11.39	5.25	2.24
DAL	2-3	0.476	58.76	59.57	26.04	11.14	4.77	1.91
LV	3-2	0.498	22.86	41.72	18.57	7.85	3.30	1.50
CAR	3-3	0.494	12.45	33.11	15.64	7.10	3.20	1.33
CLE	4-2	0.461	3.43	45.23	19.11	7.25	2.79	1.16
NE	2-3	0.498	15.78	27.06	11.83	4.98	2.10	0.95
DET	2-3	0.483	2.83	18.51	8.59	3.78	1.67	0.68
PHI	1-4-1	0.440	23.92	24.54	9.76	3.83	1.50	0.55
DEN	2-3	0.477	8.65	18.89	7.85	3.13	1.26	0.54
LAC	1-4	0.470	3.03	9.80	4.00	1.56	0.62	0.26
WAS	1-5	0.396	9.22	9.54	3.38	1.18	0.41	0.13
NYG	1-5	0.395	8.10	8.31	2.94	1.03	0.36	0.12
ATL	1-5	0.464	1.37	2.57	1.08	0.46	0.20	0.08
MIN	1-5	0.440	0.50	2.90	1.18	0.47	0.19	0.07
CIN	1-4-1	0.445	0.07	2.81	1.08	0.40	0.15	0.06
HOU	1-5	0.439	0.41	1.95	0.73	0.26	0.10	0.04
JAC	1-5	0.403	0.15	0.85	0.29	0.10	0.03	0.01
NYJ	0-6	0.334	0.04	0.07	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00

2020-10-18

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 7

I only added one team this week - UMass. They have no more games scheduled for the year. So they'll finish their season scoreless, having lost their lone game 41-0.

BYU won again and held onto that #1 slot. I mentioned last week I wasn't sure what sort of conference distribution would push its leader highest in the overall rankings (i.e., half the teams nearly perfect and half nearly winless, or an even spread of wins, etc.), but admittedly I didn't realize BYU is an FBS independent. That just throws one more wrench into the machine. The real polls have them at #12, Clemson up at #1, and SMU at #16

Missouri didn't play this week due to Vanderbilt's health issues, so they remain 1-2, and lost 5 spots to fall to #57.

Neither UL Monroe or Vanderbilt (as mentioned) played this week, but UL Monroe's schedule strength fell below Vanderbilt's, and they're your new worse team for the year.

1	BYU	5-0
2	Clemson	5-0
3	SMU	5-0
4	Miami	4-1
5	Alabama	4-0
6	UAB	4-1
7	Army	5-1
8	Coastal Carolina	4-0
9	Marshall	4-0
10	Liberty	5-0
11	NC State	4-1
12	Notre Dame	4-0
13	Louisiana	3-1
14	Georgia	3-1
15	Virginia Tech	3-1
16	North Carolina	3-1
17	Arkansas State	3-2
18	Oklahoma State	3-0
19	Cincinnati	3-0
20	Iowa State	3-1
21	Kansas State	3-1
22	Louisiana Tech	3-2
23	Texas A&M	3-1
24	Boston College	3-2
25	UTSA	3-3
26	Navy	3-2
27	Troy	3-1
28	West Virginia	3-1
29	Memphis	2-1
30	Pittsburgh	3-3
31	Georgia Southern	3-1
32	UTEP	3-2
33	Florida State	2-3
34	Florida	2-1
35	Auburn	2-2
T-36	Appalachian State	2-1
T-36	Wake Forest	2-2
38	Tennessee	2-2
39	Oklahoma	2-2
40	Arkansas	2-2
41	South Alabama	2-2
42	Tulane	2-3
43	Texas	2-2
44	South Carolina	2-2
45	UCF	2-2
46	Kentucky	2-2
47	Air Force	1-0
48	Georgia Tech	2-3
49	Houston	1-1
50	Tulsa	1-1
51	Florida Atlantic	1-0
52	TCU	1-2
53	Georgia State	1-2
54	Temple	1-1
55	North Texas	2-3
56	Baylor	1-1
57	Missouri	1-2
58	Virginia	1-3
59	Ole Miss	1-3
60	Charlotte	1-2
61	Texas Tech	1-3
62	Louisville	1-4
63	Southern Mississippi	1-3
64	Western Kentucky	1-4
65	Syracuse	1-4
66	Mississippi State	1-3
67	Duke	1-5
68	Texas State	1-5
69	East Carolina	1-3
70	UMass	0-1
71	LSU	1-2
72	South Florida	1-4
73	Middle Tennessee	1-5
74	Florida International	0-2
75	Kansas	0-4
76	Vanderbilt	0-3
77	UL Monroe	0-5

2020 History and #1s
Week 1 UAB
Week 2 Army
Week 3 Miami
Week 4 Miami
Week 5 SMU
Week 6 BYU

2020-10-14

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 5, Final

Baltimore over Green Bay

The NFL played on a Tuesday for the first time since 2010, and because the internet is so useful, you can find plenty of articles from around that time pointing out that the last time before that was 1946. Buffalo and Tennessee were a combined 7-0, and Tennessee came away with a big win, 42-16. They jumped up quite a bit, but are only up to the 3rd most likely team to win the AFC.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	4-1	0.622	49.28	88.77	62.16	36.44	21.19	12.27
GB	4-0	0.570	67.89	90.67	62.80	34.15	18.18	9.28
LAR	4-1	0.588	33.43	81.54	55.05	30.79	17.10	9.04
SEA	5-0	0.552	49.77	89.96	61.56	31.90	16.35	8.05
KC	4-1	0.568	67.96	86.00	54.27	28.32	14.46	7.59
TEN	4-0	0.555	65.77	85.20	53.09	26.94	13.37	6.83
PIT	4-0	0.555	33.18	81.63	50.63	25.42	12.68	6.48
IND	3-2	0.579	31.54	59.32	34.04	17.99	9.43	5.05
TB	3-2	0.550	39.37	60.33	33.67	17.30	8.81	4.32
CHI	4-1	0.512	29.51	73.58	41.38	19.43	9.05	4.10
ARI	3-2	0.553	13.90	52.83	29.94	15.35	7.88	3.88
CLE	4-1	0.511	17.13	69.04	36.45	16.42	7.40	3.46
BUF	4-1	0.495	55.45	69.17	33.78	14.74	6.37	2.88
CAR	3-2	0.508	27.32	51.29	26.14	12.21	5.66	2.54
NO	3-2	0.505	32.42	52.61	26.14	12.16	5.60	2.49
MIA	2-3	0.544	16.86	36.47	18.70	9.05	4.39	2.19
NE	2-2	0.510	27.44	43.58	21.09	9.51	4.28	2.00
DAL	2-3	0.476	53.52	54.94	23.93	10.30	4.42	1.85
LV	3-2	0.498	23.59	43.68	20.46	9.04	3.96	1.80
SF	2-3	0.520	2.90	22.47	11.61	5.53	2.66	1.23
PHI	1-3-1	0.442	26.12	27.19	10.89	4.33	1.72	0.66
DEN	1-3	0.466	5.39	11.92	5.01	2.05	0.84	0.35
LAC	1-4	0.469	3.05	10.32	4.39	1.80	0.74	0.32
DET	1-3	0.454	1.20	10.57	4.58	1.87	0.77	0.31
MIN	1-4	0.466	1.40	9.10	4.01	1.68	0.72	0.29
WAS	1-4	0.403	15.69	16.58	5.99	2.15	0.77	0.27
CIN	1-3-1	0.451	0.41	6.90	2.83	1.11	0.44	0.18
HOU	1-4	0.444	1.80	4.52	1.79	0.70	0.27	0.11
NYG	0-5	0.399	4.67	4.84	1.72	0.61	0.22	0.08
JAC	1-4	0.432	0.89	3.00	1.16	0.44	0.17	0.07
ATL	0-5	0.437	0.89	1.49	0.59	0.23	0.09	0.04
NYJ	0-5	0.371	0.25	0.46	0.15	0.05	0.01	0.00

2020-10-13

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 5, Monday

Baltimore over Green Bay

New Orleans beat the LA Chargers in OT, but neither shares a division with our teams at the top. Kansas City did get a slight boost from their division rival's loss, but ultimately the projection remains the same. But never fear, this week isn't over until Tuesday's game.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	4-1	0.622	49.64	89.22	62.23	36.52	21.29	12.33
GB	4-0	0.570	67.93	91.00	63.34	34.44	18.34	9.38
LAR	4-1	0.588	34.02	81.60	55.06	30.80	17.11	9.07
SEA	5-0	0.552	49.35	89.63	60.98	31.61	16.20	8.00
KC	4-1	0.568	67.49	85.64	54.00	28.19	14.43	7.57
PIT	4-0	0.555	32.66	81.74	50.51	25.41	12.70	6.49
BUF	4-0	0.539	70.97	84.69	50.86	24.83	11.87	5.87
IND	3-2	0.579	45.25	63.82	36.57	19.32	10.14	5.43
TB	3-2	0.550	39.36	60.34	33.66	17.30	8.81	4.33
CHI	4-1	0.512	29.53	74.32	41.97	19.71	9.18	4.16
ARI	3-2	0.553	13.77	51.96	29.36	15.06	7.73	3.82
CLE	4-1	0.511	17.27	69.77	36.55	16.51	7.46	3.49
TEN	3-0	0.511	49.80	67.76	35.63	16.29	7.35	3.44
CAR	3-2	0.508	27.32	51.34	26.18	12.23	5.67	2.55
NO	3-2	0.505	32.42	52.67	26.17	12.17	5.60	2.50
MIA	2-3	0.544	10.61	34.78	17.79	8.65	4.21	2.10
DAL	2-3	0.476	53.51	54.95	23.95	10.31	4.42	1.85
NE	2-2	0.510	18.29	39.98	19.35	8.78	3.97	1.85
LV	3-2	0.498	24.15	44.02	20.61	9.12	4.01	1.82
SF	2-3	0.520	2.87	21.96	11.33	5.40	2.60	1.20
PHI	1-3-1	0.443	26.12	27.20	10.90	4.34	1.72	0.67
DEN	1-3	0.466	5.34	11.52	4.87	2.00	0.82	0.35
DET	1-3	0.454	1.20	10.99	4.76	1.94	0.81	0.32
LAC	1-4	0.469	3.03	10.02	4.26	1.75	0.72	0.31
MIN	1-4	0.466	1.35	9.11	4.01	1.68	0.72	0.29
WAS	1-4	0.403	15.69	16.59	6.00	2.16	0.77	0.27
CIN	1-3-1	0.451	0.42	7.33	3.00	1.18	0.47	0.19
HOU	1-4	0.444	3.30	5.80	2.29	0.89	0.35	0.14
JAC	1-4	0.432	1.65	3.55	1.37	0.52	0.20	0.08
NYG	0-5	0.399	4.67	4.84	1.73	0.62	0.22	0.08
ATL	0-5	0.437	0.89	1.50	0.59	0.23	0.09	0.04
NYJ	0-5	0.371	0.12	0.37	0.12	0.04	0.01	0.00

[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay

2020-10-12

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 5, Sunday

Baltimore over Green Bay

Kansas City lost a tough game at home to Las Vegas, and consequently is out of the AFC lead. Baltimore is now favored 21% of the time, with KC next at 14%, with Pittsburgh sneaking up behind them at nearly 13%. In the NFC the top 3 are even closer, at 18%, 17%, and 16%. We'll get a bonus day this week with a game on Tuesday, but no early Monday game which was discussed as a possibility.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	4-1	0.622	49.64	88.92	62.06	36.44	21.26	12.31
GB	4-0	0.570	67.85	91.33	63.59	34.57	18.41	9.42
LAR	4-1	0.588	34.02	82.23	55.50	31.05	17.24	9.14
SEA	5-0	0.552	49.34	90.08	61.38	31.81	16.30	8.05
KC	4-1	0.568	66.39	85.08	53.74	28.06	14.38	7.54
PIT	4-0	0.555	32.66	81.27	50.27	25.31	12.66	6.47
BUF	4-0	0.539	70.97	84.40	50.72	24.78	11.85	5.86
IND	3-2	0.579	45.25	63.38	36.34	19.22	10.09	5.40
TB	3-2	0.550	43.43	62.29	34.67	17.83	9.07	4.46
CHI	4-1	0.512	29.60	75.19	42.51	19.95	9.29	4.21
ARI	3-2	0.553	13.76	53.06	30.00	15.38	7.89	3.90
CLE	4-1	0.511	17.27	69.11	36.26	16.39	7.41	3.46
TEN	3-0	0.511	49.80	67.41	35.49	16.24	7.33	3.43
CAR	3-2	0.508	29.86	53.25	27.07	12.65	5.87	2.64
MIA	2-3	0.544	10.61	34.27	17.55	8.54	4.15	2.08
NO	2-2	0.500	25.66	43.41	21.08	9.69	4.42	1.95
DAL	2-3	0.476	53.47	54.99	23.98	10.32	4.43	1.85
NE	2-2	0.510	18.30	39.48	19.13	8.68	3.93	1.83
LV	3-2	0.498	23.41	43.12	20.22	8.95	3.94	1.79
SF	2-3	0.520	2.88	22.69	11.69	5.57	2.68	1.24
PHI	1-3-1	0.443	26.19	27.39	10.98	4.37	1.73	0.67
LAC	1-3	0.474	5.06	15.69	6.85	2.86	1.19	0.51
DEN	1-3	0.466	5.14	11.21	4.75	1.95	0.80	0.34
DET	1-3	0.454	1.20	11.49	4.98	2.03	0.84	0.33
MIN	1-4	0.466	1.35	9.46	4.17	1.75	0.74	0.31
WAS	1-4	0.403	15.67	16.63	6.01	2.16	0.78	0.27
CIN	1-3-1	0.451	0.42	7.11	2.91	1.15	0.46	0.19
HOU	1-4	0.444	3.30	5.71	2.26	0.88	0.34	0.14
JAC	1-4	0.432	1.64	3.48	1.35	0.51	0.19	0.08
NYG	0-5	0.399	4.66	4.85	1.73	0.62	0.22	0.08
ATL	0-5	0.437	1.05	1.66	0.66	0.26	0.10	0.04
NYJ	0-5	0.371	0.12	0.36	0.12	0.04	0.01	0.00

2020-10-11

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 6

2 more teams joined the ranks this week, Houston and Temple. One FCS team also started its season, Mercer. While poking around to figure that out, I also saw The Citadel has finished its season with this weekend's game against Army, at 0-4.

We've got another new #1 this week, BYU. With no cross-conference play, I think the top teams are going to be undefeated conference champs with a top-heavy distribution. We really can't rate BYU against Clemson or SMU like usual. But, I'm not changing horses midstream. BYU is #1 this week!

I just sort of assumed Missouri would lose to LSU, as most people did, and didn't make much of an effort to seek out the game. Then I got a score alert that they won. I figured that had to be wrong but sure enough, they made a goal line stand toward the end of the game to seal a narrow victory despite being 20 point underdogs at the start. That lifts them up to #52, and drops LSU down to #70.

Middle Tennessee only spent 1 week at the bottom, winning a game to climb to #72. Vanderbilt is now the worst team at 0-3, despite UL Monroe just above them being 0-5. Vanderbilt, of course, is hurt by being beat by the aforementioned low-ranked LSU team. And to come full circle, their next opponent is Missouri, next Saturday.

1	BYU	4-0
2	Clemson	4-0
3	SMU	4-0
4	North Carolina	3-0
5	Louisiana	3-0
6	Georgia	3-0
7	Miami	3-1
8	UAB	3-1
9	Liberty	4-0
10	Alabama	3-0
11	Iowa State	3-1
12	NC State	3-1
13	Oklahoma State	3-0
14	Boston College	3-1
15	Kansas State	3-1
16	Army	4-1
17	Cincinnati	3-0
18	Louisiana Tech	3-1
19	Marshall	3-0
20	Notre Dame	3-0
21	Coastal Carolina	3-0
22	UTSA	3-2
23	Pittsburgh	3-2
24	Virginia Tech	2-1
25	UTEP	3-2
26	Arkansas State	2-2
T-27	Tennessee	2-1
T-27	Auburn	2-1
29	Texas A&M	2-1
30	Oklahoma	2-2
31	West Virginia	2-1
32	Florida	2-1
33	Troy	2-1
34	UCF	2-1
35	Navy	2-2
36	Texas	2-2
37	Appalachian State	2-1
38	Georgia Southern	2-1
39	Tulane	2-2
40	Georgia Tech	2-2
41	Memphis	1-1
42	Air Force	1-0
43	Houston	1-0
44	Tulsa	1-1
45	TCU	1-2
46	Florida Atlantic	1-0
47	Georgia State	1-1
48	Virginia	1-2
49	Wake Forest	1-2
T-50	Arkansas	1-2
T-50	Ole Miss	1-2
52	Missouri	1-2
53	Baylor	1-1
54	South Alabama	1-2
55	Florida State	1-3
56	Syracuse	1-3
57	Louisville	1-3
58	Texas Tech	1-3
59	South Carolina	1-2
60	East Carolina	1-2
61	Kentucky	1-2
62	Texas State	1-4
63	Charlotte	1-2
64	Duke	1-4
65	Western Kentucky	1-3
66	Southern Mississippi	1-3
67	South Florida	1-3
68	Mississippi State	1-2
69	Temple	0-1
70	LSU	1-2
71	North Texas	1-3
72	Middle Tennessee	1-4
73	Florida International	0-2
74	Kansas	0-3
75	UL Monroe	0-5
76	Vanderbilt	0-3

2020 History and #1s
Week 1 UAB
Week 2 Army
Week 3 Miami
Week 4 Miami
Week 5 SMU

2020-10-09

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 5, Thursday

Kansas City over Green Bay

It always takes me a few weeks each year to recalibrate myself and be able to know intuitively which teams are good and which are bad. Of course the networks help point that out by putting their #1 broadcast teams on games with the better teams, and in the St. Louis market I generally get the game of the week for whichever network doesn't have Kansas City that week. But on Thursdays, there's only one game, and based on past experience I'm almost predisposed to believing the teams are bad. I feel like I've seen Jacksonville-Tennessee on a Thursday night way too many times. Anyway, that's a long way around to say that Tampa and Chicago were both surprisingly good at 3-1. Nick Foles and Tom Brady got a Super Bowl LII rematch, and Foles came out victorious again. Chicago greatly increased their chances at winning the NFC North, but Green Bay still has them beat and remains the NFC favorite.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	4-0	0.583	82.64	93.78	67.87	37.29	20.11	11.01
GB	4-0	0.570	66.29	91.42	65.98	36.41	19.82	10.28
IND	3-1	0.592	55.46	79.59	50.16	27.77	15.25	8.49
BAL	3-1	0.583	42.26	77.74	47.56	25.77	13.86	7.59
SEA	4-0	0.548	49.09	84.35	55.94	29.34	15.17	7.54
BUF	4-0	0.539	74.43	87.10	53.01	26.17	12.70	6.39
LAR	3-1	0.551	26.49	69.16	42.77	22.39	11.64	5.82
PIT	3-0	0.543	35.65	74.45	43.29	21.52	10.60	5.38
TB	3-2	0.550	48.56	65.18	37.27	19.52	10.10	5.04
CHI	4-1	0.512	30.38	77.20	45.55	21.76	10.34	4.76
SF	2-2	0.570	13.60	49.27	29.57	15.98	8.64	4.48
TEN	3-0	0.511	39.94	68.81	36.50	16.86	7.74	3.68
CLE	3-1	0.497	17.44	55.17	26.91	11.96	5.32	2.46
NE	2-2	0.510	20.62	45.28	22.05	10.09	4.63	2.20
ARI	2-2	0.512	10.82	38.80	20.22	9.70	4.65	2.14
NO	2-2	0.500	27.22	43.92	21.85	10.24	4.76	2.14
CAR	2-2	0.494	20.76	39.91	19.94	9.21	4.22	1.87
DAL	1-3	0.472	32.76	35.36	15.74	6.82	2.95	1.25
PHI	1-2-1	0.455	36.40	38.61	16.66	6.95	2.89	1.17
LV	2-2	0.485	10.18	29.22	13.27	5.74	2.50	1.12
CIN	1-2-1	0.500	4.65	24.14	11.30	5.06	2.28	1.06
MIA	1-3	0.494	4.40	18.20	8.30	3.65	1.62	0.74
WAS	1-3	0.438	23.50	26.19	10.85	4.35	1.74	0.68
LAC	1-3	0.474	3.41	17.70	7.75	3.26	1.39	0.61
MIN	1-3	0.469	2.19	15.95	7.42	3.20	1.40	0.58
DEN	1-3	0.466	3.78	12.72	5.43	2.25	0.94	0.41
DET	1-3	0.454	1.14	11.84	5.25	2.19	0.92	0.37
JAC	1-3	0.461	3.63	11.83	5.00	2.05	0.85	0.36
ATL	0-4	0.452	3.46	5.07	2.13	0.90	0.38	0.15
NYG	0-4	0.400	7.35	7.75	2.85	1.04	0.38	0.13
HOU	0-4	0.424	0.96	2.59	0.99	0.37	0.14	0.05
NYJ	0-4	0.401	0.55	1.70	0.61	0.21	0.08	0.03

2020-10-06

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 4, Final

Kansas City over Green Bay

Both conference favorites re-took their positions after losing them due to playing a day later this week. I noticed both teams crossed the 10% mark for chances of being the champion, which reminded me that I hadn't yet started listing the first teams to cross such barriers. As it turns out I only missed one of the marks I traditionally track, which was in week 3 when Kansas City reached the 80% mark for making the playoffs. With an extra playoff team in each conference this year we could expect some different behavior, but 80% was reached at the same point as last year, and 90% was a gameday later, which is effectively the same point, within the margin of error of a schedule quirk. It took longer for anyone to reach the 10% mark of winning it all, which is probably also because of the extra playoff team. In the past a dominant team would be very likely to get a bye by landing at #1 or #2, but now only the cases where they are #1 result in a bye. A #2 finish now comes with some chance of not making the next round.

I noticed we've got 4 winless teams at 0-4. We also had that last year, along with an 0-3 and 0-3-1 team, so it's nothing crazy. However, I wanted to look ahead to see what our chances were of seeing 2 winless teams face off, and none of them play each other! So finishing with 4 0-16 teams is not out of the question. At the other extreme, we will get a 4-0 vs 3-0 this week, Buffalo at Tennessee.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	4-0	0.583	82.66	93.79	67.91	37.31	20.12	11.01
GB	4-0	0.570	72.01	91.79	65.89	36.38	19.78	10.26
IND	3-1	0.592	55.44	79.57	50.14	27.76	15.24	8.48
BAL	3-1	0.583	42.27	77.75	47.56	25.77	13.86	7.58
SEA	4-0	0.549	49.07	84.61	56.13	29.42	15.19	7.55
BUF	4-0	0.539	74.44	87.10	53.01	26.16	12.70	6.39
TB	3-1	0.549	56.82	74.74	45.17	23.63	12.17	6.05
LAR	3-1	0.551	26.54	69.65	43.00	22.49	11.68	5.84
PIT	3-0	0.543	35.65	74.45	43.28	21.52	10.60	5.38
SF	2-2	0.570	13.59	49.69	29.80	16.08	8.69	4.51
CHI	3-1	0.509	23.98	65.47	36.66	17.39	8.22	3.77
TEN	3-0	0.511	39.96	68.82	36.50	16.86	7.74	3.68
CLE	3-1	0.497	17.43	55.16	26.90	11.96	5.32	2.45
NE	2-2	0.510	20.61	45.28	22.05	10.09	4.63	2.20
ARI	2-2	0.512	10.81	39.13	20.38	9.75	4.67	2.15
NO	2-2	0.500	23.02	43.55	21.75	10.16	4.71	2.12
CAR	2-2	0.494	17.38	39.93	20.00	9.20	4.22	1.87
DAL	1-3	0.472	32.76	35.46	15.81	6.84	2.96	1.25
PHI	1-2-1	0.455	36.39	38.70	16.72	6.96	2.89	1.17
LV	2-2	0.485	10.17	29.25	13.28	5.74	2.50	1.12
CIN	1-2-1	0.500	4.65	24.13	11.30	5.05	2.28	1.06
MIA	1-3	0.494	4.40	18.20	8.30	3.65	1.62	0.74
WAS	1-3	0.438	23.49	26.29	10.91	4.36	1.74	0.68
LAC	1-3	0.474	3.40	17.69	7.74	3.26	1.38	0.61
MIN	1-3	0.469	2.57	16.36	7.57	3.26	1.42	0.59
DEN	1-3	0.466	3.77	12.71	5.42	2.24	0.94	0.40
DET	1-3	0.454	1.43	12.10	5.34	2.22	0.94	0.38
JAC	1-3	0.461	3.63	11.83	5.00	2.05	0.85	0.36
ATL	0-4	0.452	2.77	4.76	2.00	0.84	0.35	0.14
NYG	0-4	0.400	7.36	7.77	2.87	1.04	0.38	0.13
HOU	0-4	0.424	0.96	2.59	0.99	0.37	0.14	0.05
NYJ	0-4	0.401	0.55	1.70	0.61	0.21	0.08	0.03

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington

[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington

[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay

[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay

[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay

[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay

[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay

[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay

[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle